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000
FXUS61 KGYX 231339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS MESONET. I RAISED 6 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE KPSM - KCON AREA. THE STORM
WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WAS REPLACED WITH A GALE WARNING
FOR THIS UPDATE. TIDE DEPARTURE IS APPROACHING 1.5 FT AHEAD OF THE
11 AM HIGH TIDE AT THE PORTLAND GAGE...WITH 15 FOOT SEAS BEING
OBSERVED SOUTH OF CASCO BAY...WE WILL SEE SPLASHOVER AND SOME
BEACH EROSION WITH THIS HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
PORTLAND.

PREV DISC...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY.

AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL
OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK
WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND.

A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS
IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON
HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE
SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N
THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND
KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA
LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD
FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR
CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR
THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-
     014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230810
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY.

AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL
OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK
WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND.

A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS
IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON
HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE
SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N
THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND
KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA
LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD
FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR
CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR
THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-
     014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230810
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY.

AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL
OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK
WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND.

A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS
IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON
HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE
SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N
THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND
KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA
LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD
FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR
CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR
THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-
     014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230515
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 115 AM UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AT THIS TIME BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAWN.

810 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. THE
WRAPAROUND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC:
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD
OF THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AT 18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE
BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND
SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH
LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR
HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR
INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A
STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR
TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS
BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST SO INCREASED
WINDS AND UPGRADED THE GALE WARNINGS TO STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHILE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
810 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. THE
WRAPAROUND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC:
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD
OF THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AT 18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE
BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND
SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH
LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR
HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR
INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A
STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR
TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS
BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST SO INCREASED
WINDS AND UPGRADED THE GALE WARNINGS TO STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHILE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 230019
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
810 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. THE
WRAPAROUND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC:
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD
OF THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AT 18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE
BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND
SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH
LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR
HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR
INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A
STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR
TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS
BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST SO INCREASED
WINDS AND UPGRADED THE GALE WARNINGS TO STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHILE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD OF
THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT
18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE
BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND
SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH
LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR
HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR
INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A
STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR
TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221613
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1210 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
910 AM...AT 13Z A 1006 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS NEXT
IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW SITUATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA
COAST ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BOTH THE KGYX 12Z RAOB AND
DOPPLER RADAR VAD WINDS SHOW NE AT 40 KT JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION NEAR 2000 FT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT MESONET AND RADAR TREND.

PREV DISC... 6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN
RISES. ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221327
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM...AT 13Z A 1006 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS NEXT
IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW SITUATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA
COAST ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BOTH THE KGYX 12Z RAOB AND
DOPPLER RADAR VAD WINDS SHOW NE AT 40 KT JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION NEAR 2000 FT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT MESONET AND RADAR TREND.

PREV DISC... 6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN
RISES. ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221007
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
607 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN RISES. ADJUSTED
TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OS MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221007
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
607 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN RISES. ADJUSTED
TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OS MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220753
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD OF THE
LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OS MOISTURE ORIGINATING
IN FLORIDA.  A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MAINE AS
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220509
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT: INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN. ALSO INCREASED POPS A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...AS MOST BREAKS SEEM TO BE FILLING IN ACROSS COASTAL
MAINE.

855 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE SPREADING W DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ALL OF SRN AND WRN ME. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO THE HIGH POPS AND QPF NEED NO
CHANGES. QPF SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. ACROSS MOST OF
SRN AND WRN NH CONDS STILL REMAIN DRY BUT EXPECT LATER TONIGHT FOR
THE RAIN TO REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL. BRUSHED UP TEMPS/DEWPTS ETC
WITH LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE
STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM
THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE
LOW PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT
MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE
TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220509
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT: INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN. ALSO INCREASED POPS A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...AS MOST BREAKS SEEM TO BE FILLING IN ACROSS COASTAL
MAINE.

855 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE SPREADING W DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ALL OF SRN AND WRN ME. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO THE HIGH POPS AND QPF NEED NO
CHANGES. QPF SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. ACROSS MOST OF
SRN AND WRN NH CONDS STILL REMAIN DRY BUT EXPECT LATER TONIGHT FOR
THE RAIN TO REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL. BRUSHED UP TEMPS/DEWPTS ETC
WITH LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE
STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM
THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE
LOW PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT
MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE
TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220100
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
855 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE SPREADING W DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ALL OF SRN AND WRN ME. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO THE HIGH POPS AND QPF NEED NO
CHANGES. QPF SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. ACROSS MOST OF
SRN AND WRN NH CONDS STILL REMAIN DRY BUT EXPECT LATER TONIGHT FOR
THE RAIN TO REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL. BRUSHED UP TEMPS/DEWPTS ETC
WITH LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE
STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM
THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE
LOW PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT
MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE
TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 211921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE
STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM
THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE
LOW PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY
MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT
MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE
TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES
TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

KIMBLE/KISTNER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211627
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1230PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE POP FORECAST AGAIN AS RAIN IS ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO FILL
IN MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211627
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1230PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE POP FORECAST AGAIN AS RAIN IS ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO FILL
IN MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211012
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE.. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

PREV DISC...LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY
SPREADING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT IN THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211012
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE.. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

PREV DISC...LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY
SPREADING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT IN THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...CURTIS/LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...CURTIS/LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 202307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER.
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 202307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER.
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 201947
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO THE
NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOOK FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST..WHICH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY
THRU THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N
AND 40 TO 45 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154-170.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 201947
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO THE
NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOOK FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST..WHICH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY
THRU THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N
AND 40 TO 45 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154-170.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




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