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000
FXUS61 KGYX 211627
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1230PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE POP FORECAST AGAIN AS RAIN IS ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO FILL
IN MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211627
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1230PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE POP FORECAST AGAIN AS RAIN IS ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO FILL
IN MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211012
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE.. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

PREV DISC...LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY
SPREADING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT IN THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211012
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE.. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.

PREV DISC...LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY
SPREADING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT IN THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...CURTIS/LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT
FORMATION. WAA FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRES FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL STACK AND DEEPEN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THIS IS PROGGED TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN
INTO PARTS OF WRN ME AND ADJACENT NH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL IN THE SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH ELY
FLOW UPSLOPING INTO THE MTNS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ATTM THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY RNFL
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 21/00Z GEFS FORECAST A -4 SD
850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A SEASONABLY STRONG ELY JET IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN SLOPES. IN
ADDITION...-3 SD 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THU. THAT BEING SAID...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PCPN. GIVEN THAT THE
HEAVIEST RNFL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER
SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.

EVENTUALLY LOW PRES MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES SE
ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF
IS COOLER THAN THE GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SHSN
ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WED NIGHT THRU THU IS
RA...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AOA
25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT COULD
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS ON SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SAT...BEFORE HIGH PRES TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...CURTIS/LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210437
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1237 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD
COVER. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 202307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER.
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 202307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE: TWEAKED EVENING SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER.
INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND TEMPS/DEWPTS LOOK ON TRACK. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO
THE NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY
DRY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOOK
FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST..WHICH
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY THRU THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N AND 40 TO 45
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 201947
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO THE
NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOOK FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST..WHICH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY
THRU THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N
AND 40 TO 45 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154-170.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 201947
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK 500MB RIDGING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW EXITING THE MARITIMES TO THE
NE...AND DEEPEN TROUGH OVER THE PH VLY WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STAGNANT SFC FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LVLS BECOME MORE SRLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOOK FOR THE ONSHORE TO DEVELOP STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST..WHICH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD UNTIL A ROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY
THRU THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT....WITH LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S N
AND 40 TO 45 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...AND WILL LKLY SEE A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH NE WINDS INLAND...AND A MORE E
FLOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MID LVL WAA...WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RAIN BY
AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MTNS
AND POINTS N...WILL BE MORE SHOWERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DOWNSLOPE HELPS DRY THINGS A BIT...BUT EVEN HERE THE WAA WILL
PRODUCE STEADY RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 40S N TO MIS 50S ON THE COAST...AS THE THE MARINE
AIR WORKS IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A MAINLY STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW BEGIN TO FORM S OF LONG ISLAND NY...BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED.  MINS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE DELMARVA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. WE`LL SEE BANDS OF RAIN
PINWHEELING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY FALLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DESPITE WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDS BEGINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ONSHORE FLOW
MOVES STRATUS AND RAIN INLAND ON WED...BY WED AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
COASTAL AREAS DOWN TO IFR...WITH INLAND AREAS FOLLOWING BY TUE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WED - FRI...IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE E FLOW BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS/WINDS EXPECTED
BY MIDNIGHT...AND BUILDING TO GALES BY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION AND SPLASH OVER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COASTLINE. NEAR SHORE WAVES COULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT
RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ANZ150>154-170.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 201048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... ENDED FREEZE WARNING AND UPDATED FOR CURRENT OBS.

STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING SOME
BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH SPLASH-
OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... ENDED FREEZE WARNING AND UPDATED FOR CURRENT OBS.

STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING SOME
BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH SPLASH-
OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 200800
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE KEPT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY
STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL ALLOW
FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH-OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

HYDRO...MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE
AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200800
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE KEPT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY
STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL ALLOW
FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH-OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

HYDRO...MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE
AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 200350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS CLOUDS AND WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST... BUT IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPS TO
FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SO HAVE LEFT FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 200350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS CLOUDS AND WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST... BUT IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPS TO
FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SO HAVE LEFT FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200102
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
902 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 191911
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 190654
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LINE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE
NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR. FURTHER
SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
MC/JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 190159
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST. SHOWERS
HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
LGT SHWRS WERE NOTED.

645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 190159
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST. SHOWERS
HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
LGT SHWRS WERE NOTED.

645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 182258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
658 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






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