000
FXUS61 KGYX 190742
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
342 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OUT TO SEA AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TDA. A WRM FNT MOVES IN FROM THE SW
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A CD FNT IS PRESSING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL CONT ONSHORE FLOW TDA WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SE NH AND
SW AND COASTAL ME SLOW TO LIFT TDA. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS MIDDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF -SHRA MOVING SE FROM THE MID AND SW COAST
OF ME TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THESE -SHRA KEEP REGENERATING NEAR THE
COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL SHOW A CHC OF PRCP THIS AREA FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY VALLEY F AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED CLOSE TO DEW POINTS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH LGT WINDS.
THE APPROACHING FRONTS WILL BRING IN CLOUDS N AND CENTRAL WHILE
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AREAS LATER TDA. PRCP AMOUNTS
WILL BE LGT...USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 60S EXCEPT 50S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE MARINE FLOW AND
LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE. BEST CHC TO HIT 70 ACTUALLY OVER NRN NH
WHERE THEY MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING F BURNS OFF AND BEFORE FRONTAL CLOUDS
ARRIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA WHILE THE WRM FNT MOVES IN
FROM THE SW AND THE CANADIAN CD FNT FROM THE NW. THE CD FNT
ACTUALLY PUSHES S INTO THE REGION AS THE WRM FNT STALLS OUT. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT SHRA. AS
THE CD FNT DROPS IN FROM THE N IT WILL BRING AN END TO PRCP OVER
NRN AREAS ON MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONT AS MARINE AIR
HELPS MOISTEN LOW LEVELS AND CREATES AREAS OF F...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR AREAS. USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF.
USED BLEND OF NAM/GFS AND MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVEL
EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FROM EARLY
SPRING CHILL.
IN THE DAILIES...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH IFR/PSBL
LIFR CIG FROM STRATUS OVER SE NH AND SW AND COASTAL ME ZONES...
INCLUDING PSM, CON, PWM. RKD AND AUG TAFS. SOME RADIATION F OVER
INT SECTIONS MAY IMPACT HIE AND LEB. COMPLEX WX PATTERN BRINGS
CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHRA TO THE REGION THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST
PERIOD WITH STRATUS LIFTING TDA BUT RETURNING TNGT ALONG WITH
PATCHY F.
LONG TERM...
TUE - THU...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THRU THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS WHILE SEAS
SLOWLY BUILD...MOST LIKELY REACHING SCA LEVELS LATE TNGT AND
MONDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND PERHAPS NEARING THE 5 FT CRITERIA
OVER THE BAYS ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...
WED - THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 190441
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1241 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. ON AND OFF AGAIN
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER OVER SE NH AND EXTREME SW ME PER
LATEST SATELLITE AND MTR REPORTS SHOWING MARINE STRATUS DECK
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND. CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED INTO
CON, PSM, DAW AND SFM...BUT NOT INTO PWM OR IZG YET. A BATCH OF
-SHRA MOVED THRU THE PWM AREA AN HOUR OR TWO AGO BUT IS NOW
OFFSHORE AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SE...SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WX THOUGH PATCHY F LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE NH AND EXTREME SW ME
COAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INLAND AS THE MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO
SURGE INLAND. ELSEWHERE SOME CLOUDS AROUND BUT NO STRATUS OR F
EXPECTED. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
LATEST TEMP/DEW POINT/SKY COVER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WAVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 500 AND
1500 FEET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK INLAND ACROSS SE NH AND EXTREME
SW ME AT THIS TIME...HAVING REACHED PSM, DAW, CON AND SFM...BUT
NOT YET INTO PWM, AUG OR IZG. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INLAND THRU THE NGT. SOME F MAY FORM TO ALSO LOWER VSBY
BUT MAIN CONCERN IS THE LOW CIG. LEB AND HIE TAF SITES ON OTHER
SIDE OF HIGH TERRAIN MAY NOT SEE THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
A BETTER CHC OF STAYING VFR.
WHERE THE STRATUS AND F DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER THESE TAF SITES CAN IMPROVE TO VFR ON SUNDAY...GIVEN
WEAK ONSHORE SE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING
IS THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT WHETHER CIGS GET TO VFR IS
UNCERTAIN. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHC OF IFR CIG/VSBY IN ISOLD
TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO
INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT CONT KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM. STILL EXPECT
SOME PATCHY F OVER WRN WATERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE
OCEAN WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 190207
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1007 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. ON AND OFF AGAIN
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW ME AND SE
NH. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS SPREADS OVERNIGHT. MESO MODELS
ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE STRATUS DOES SPREAD...BUT THEY COVER
DIFFERENT AREAS. FOR NOW...THINK THAT IT WILL LIKLY SPREAD N AND E
ALONG THE FIRST CUT OF UPSLOPE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
HAVE BROUGHT BKN-OVC INTO THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...JUST A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND POPS.
740 PM UPDATE...SHRA WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET... A FEW
SPKLS REMAIN [POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
TERRAIN OF FRANKLIN/SOMERSET COUNTIES AS WEAK SFC AND LOW LVL
BOUNDARY HANGS IN PLACE. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING
IT AND A PATCH HAS DEVELOPED OVER COASTAL YORK COUNTY S INTO
PORTSMOUTH. WITH TDS OVER THE WATER AROUND 50...AND ONLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NOT FAR INLAND...AND WEAK SE FLOW...COULD SEE
IT DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVE.
PREVIOUSLY...A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THE WDLY SCT AFTN INSBLTY CLDS AND SPRINKLES WILL COME TO
AN END AFTER SS FOLLOWED BY P/C CONDS. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MTNS TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...2340Z UPDATE...CONDS FOR LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE
COMING TOGETHER THIS EVE...AND HAVE ADDED TO MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. SOME HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN KPSM AND ALONG THE SW ME
COAST. WHERE THIS ST/FG DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER THE COASTAL TERMINALS CAN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN WEAK SE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT WHETHER CIGS GET
TO VFR IS UNCERTAIN. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHC OF IFR CIG/VSBY
IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE OCEAN WHICH
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KGYX 182346
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
746 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH IT. ON AND OFF AGAIN
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...SHRA WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET... A FEW
SPKLS REMAIN [POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
TERRAIN OF FRANKLIN/SOMERSET COUNTIES AS WEAK SFC AND LOW LVL
BOUNDARY HANGS IN PLACE. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING
IT AND A PATCH HAS DEVELOPED OVER COASTAL YORK COUNTY S INTO
PORTSMOUTH. WITH TDS OVER THE WATER AROUND 50...AND ONLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NOT FAR INLAND...AND WEAK SE FLOW...COULD SEE
IT DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVE.
PREVIOUSLY...A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THE WDLY SCT AFTN INSBLTY CLDS AND SPRINKLES WILL COME TO
AN END AFTER SS FOLLOWED BY P/C CONDS. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MTNS TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...2340Z UPDATE...CONDS FOR LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE
COMING TOGETHER THIS EVE...AND HAVE ADDED TO MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. SOME HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN KPSM AND ALONG THE SW ME
COAST. WHERE THIS ST/FG DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER THE COASTAL TERMINALS CAN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN WEAK SE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT WHETHER CIGS GET
TO VFR IS UNCERTAIN. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHC OF IFR CIG/VSBY
IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE OCEAN WHICH
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KGYX 181922
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE WDLY
SCT AFTN INSBLTY CLDS AND SPRINKLES WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SS
FOLLOWED BY P/C CONDS. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
IN THE MTNS TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A CHC OF MVFR
CIG/VSBY IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE OCEAN WHICH
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...LULOFS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 181436
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1036 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPR LVL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WITH A
RIDGE TO OUR W CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NW FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WHICH HAS AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT
WAVE/JET SEGMENT SLIDING SE IN THIS NW FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SFC WEAK HIGH PRES BETWEEN THE TWO UPR LVL SYSTEMS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY...BEING ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST.
THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF
HIGHER RH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TDA. THIS FEATURE MAY EVEN TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDOING THE CHC OF PRCP AND QPF FOR THIS EVENT.
WILL LOWER THE CHC OF PRCP DOWN TO SLGT CHC AND WILL USE RFC QPF
WHICH SHOWS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPS TDA WILL BE TEMPERED BY
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL USE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV MOS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND
WARMER MAV. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH AROUND 70 PSBL OVER SRN
INTERIOR NH AND COASTAL MAINE A LITTLE COOLER...ESPECIALLY THE
MID COAST WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. ALSO USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS FOR DEW POINTS AND WINDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED INLAND AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...BUT WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND
IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN`T BEGUN SO NO FROST ADV
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPR LVL PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT IN THE NW FLOW PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TNGT. THIS BRINGS THE AREA OF HIGHER RH OFFSHORE AS WELL AS
ISOLD -SHRA. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING WRM FNT, BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LVL CUTOFF TO OUR NE AND THE UPR LVL RIDGE
TO OUR W, WILL BE SPREADING MORE CLOUDS AND PSBL -SHRA NE INTO THE
FCST AREA ON SUNDAY /MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. AGAIN THE GFS CHC
OF PRCP AND QPF APPEAR OVERDONE SO HAVE LOWER THE CHC OF PRCP
CONSIDERABLY AND USING RFC QPF WHICH KEEPS AMOUNTS VERY LOW. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WAS USED FOR TEMPS, DEW POINTS AND WINDS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN THE HIGH WHICH STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST AND
THE WRM FNT THAT PUSHES IN FROM THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH EMERGES. WITH MEAN
JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVEL EASTWARD ALONG A
BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FROM EARLY SPRING CHILL.
IN THE DAILIES...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR TDA...TNGT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN ANY ISOLD -SHRA. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHC OF MVFR CIG/VSBY IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY.
WEAK WINDS BECOME ONSHORE TDA AND ENHANCED BY A SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE COAST. WINDS DROP OFF TNGT BUT ONSHORE FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
MON - WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. LGT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST TDA
. WINDS ENHANCED TDA FROM DAYTIME SEA BREEZES. SE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND A WRM FNT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW.
LONG TERM...
SUN NIGHT - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL BE
THE LOWEST TDA BUT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LGT EXCEPT FOR A
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL ALSO FORCE RH
VALUES TO INCREASE THERE. WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE
OCEAN WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLD
-SHRA OVER THE WEEKEND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHC OF -SHRA DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 181031
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST OTHER THAN TO REMOVE FROST
FROM THE FCST THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPR LVL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WITH A
RIDGE TO OUR W CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NW FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WHICH HAS AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT
WAVE/JET SEGMENT SLIDING SE IN THIS NW FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SFC WEAK HIGH PRES BETWEEN THE TWO UPR LVL SYSTEMS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY...BEING ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST.
THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF
HIGHER RH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TDA. THIS FEATURE MAY EVEN TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDOING THE CHC OF PRCP AND QPF FOR THIS EVENT.
WILL LOWER THE CHC OF PRCP DOWN TO SLGT CHC AND WILL USE RFC QPF
WHICH SHOWS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPS TDA WILL BE TEMPERED BY
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL USE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV MOS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND
WARMER MAV. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH AROUND 70 PSBL OVER SRN
INTERIOR NH AND COASTAL MAINE A LITTLE COOLER...ESPECIALLY THE
MID COAST WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. ALSO USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS FOR DEW POINTS AND WINDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED INLAND AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...BUT WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND
IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN`T BEGUN SO NO FROST ADV
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPR LVL PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT IN THE NW FLOW PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TNGT. THIS BRINGS THE AREA OF HIGHER RH OFFSHORE AS WELL AS
ISOLD -SHRA. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING WRM FNT, BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LVL CUTOFF TO OUR NE AND THE UPR LVL RIDGE
TO OUR W, WILL BE SPREADING MORE CLOUDS AND PSBL -SHRA NE INTO THE
FCST AREA ON SUNDAY /MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. AGAIN THE GFS CHC
OF PRCP AND QPF APPEAR OVERDONE SO HAVE LOWER THE CHC OF PRCP
CONSIDERABLY AND USING RFC QPF WHICH KEEPS AMOUNTS VERY LOW. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WAS USED FOR TEMPS, DEW POINTS AND WINDS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN THE HIGH WHICH STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST AND
THE WRM FNT THAT PUSHES IN FROM THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH EMERGES. WITH MEAN
JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVEL EASTWARD ALONG A
BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FROM EARLY SPRING CHILL.
IN THE DAILIES...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR TDA...TNGT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN ANY ISOLD -SHRA. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHC OF MVFR CIG/VSBY IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY.
WEAK WINDS BECOME ONSHORE TDA AND ENHANCED BY A SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE COAST. WINDS DROP OFF TNGT BUT ONSHORE FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
MON - WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. LGT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST TDA
. WINDS ENHANCED TDA FROM DAYTIME SEA BREEZES. SE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND A WRM FNT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW.
LONG TERM...
SUN NIGHT - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL BE
THE LOWEST TDA BUT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LGT EXCEPT FOR A
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL ALSO FORCE RH
VALUES TO INCREASE THERE. WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE
OCEAN WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLD
-SHRA OVER THE WEEKEND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHC OF -SHRA DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 180703
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE UPR LVL PATTERN SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WITH A
RIDGE TO OUR W CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NW FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WHICH HAS AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT
WAVE/JET SEGMENT SLIDING SE IN THIS NW FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SFC WEAK HIGH PRES BETWEEN THE TWO UPR LVL SYSTEMS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY...BEING ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST.
THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF
HIGHER RH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TDA. THIS FEATURE MAY EVEN TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDOING THE CHC OF PRCP AND QPF FOR THIS EVENT.
WILL LOWER THE CHC OF PRCP DOWN TO SLGT CHC AND WILL USE RFC QPF
WHICH SHOWS MINIMAL AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPS TDA WILL BE TEMPERED BY
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL USE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV MOS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND
WARMER MAV. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH AROUND 70 PSBL OVER SRN
INTERIOR NH AND COASTAL MAINE A LITTLE COOLER...ESPECIALLY THE
MID COAST WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. ALSO USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS FOR DEW POINTS AND WINDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED INLAND AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...BUT WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND
IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN`T BEGUN SO NO FROST ADV
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPR LVL PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT IN THE NW FLOW PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TNGT. THIS BRINGS THE AREA OF HIGHER RH OFFSHORE AS WELL AS
ISOLD -SHRA. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING WRM FNT, BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LVL CUTOFF TO OUR NE AND THE UPR LVL RIDGE
TO OUR W, WILL BE SPREADING MORE CLOUDS AND PSBL -SHRA NE INTO THE
FCST AREA ON SUNDAY /MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. AGAIN THE GFS CHC
OF PRCP AND QPF APPEAR OVERDONE SO HAVE LOWER THE CHC OF PRCP
CONSIDERABLY AND USING RFC QPF WHICH KEEPS AMOUNTS VERY LOW. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WAS USED FOR TEMPS, DEW POINTS AND WINDS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN THE HIGH WHICH STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST AND
THE WRM FNT THAT PUSHES IN FROM THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH EMERGES. WITH MEAN
JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVEL EASTWARD ALONG A
BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FROM EARLY SPRING CHILL.
IN THE DAILIES...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR TDA...TNGT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN ANY ISOLD -SHRA. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHC OF MVFR CIG/VSBY IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA LATE SUNDAY.
WEAK WINDS BECOME ONSHORE TDA AND ENHANCED BY A SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE COAST. WINDS DROP OFF TNGT BUT ONSHORE FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
MON - WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST TDA . WINDS ENHANCED TDA FROM DAYTIME
SEA BREEZES. SE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES ON
SUNDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND
A WRM FNT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
LONG TERM...
SUN NIGHT - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL BE
THE LOWEST TDA BUT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LGT EXCEPT FOR A
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL ALSO FORCE RH
VALUES TO INCREASE THERE. WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE
OCEAN WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLD
-SHRA OVER THE WEEKEND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHC OF -SHRA DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 180436
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1236 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS
UP OR DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/SKY COVER. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT PER SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWING A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVING SE ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LGT AND VARIABLE. WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF AT
VARYING DEGREES BASED ON CLOUD COVER FROST WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT FOR ANY GIVEN AREA...HOWEVER THE OVERALL CHC OF PATCHY
FROST OVER INLAND SHELTERED AREAS WILL CONT IN THE FCST WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL FEEL CHILLY AND RAW WITH A MARITIME FEEL TO THE
AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MARITIMES.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTN -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGION.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE THE LAST FEW NGTS. A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT TO OUR WEST. WITH A
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE WATER...HAVE INCLUDED LATE NIGHT SLGT CHC
-SHRA FOR SRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BUILDING DIRTY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BUT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE A LOW LEVEL
MOIST SSELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HEDGE ON POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH THE SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BUT ALSO THE CHC OF SHWRS THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THRU THE UPPER FLOW. FOR 4TH/5TH
PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID. BEYOND THE 5TH PD USED
THE ADJUSTED MEX TEMPS FOR MINS AND STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR
MAX`S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH COULD IMPACT
HIE. THERE IS A SLGT CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NGT...THOUGH ANY -SHRA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT CIG OR VSBY.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR XCPT MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA...RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN MINOR
ADJUSTEMTS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. HAVE INCREASED SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
OPEN WATERS AND FCST VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE SHORT
TERM FCST PERIOD AS FLOW TURNS ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH MOVING
OFF THE COAST AND A SEA BREEZE ENHANCING THE E SE FLOW.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT MAINLY FROM THE MOIST
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE
MODERATE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 180124
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
924 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
---0120Z UPDATE---
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL. SHOULD SEE
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AGAIN...THE DAY SHIFT DID A GOOD JOB OF CAPTURING THIS ALREADY SO
ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NEEDED.
---2200Z UPDATE---
FORECAST PACKAGE MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES A BIT TO HANDLE DIURNAL TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE DOWNSLOPING CONDS NOW TAKING
HOLD OVER SWRN PTNS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FURTHER TO
THE N.
SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST UP IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS
JUST WARM ENOUGH ALONG THE CST TO PREVENT ANY ADVISORIES FOR THAT
REGION. USED A BLEND OF MATCH MET/MAV MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL FEEL CHILLY AND RAW WITH A MARITIME FEEL TO THE
AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MARITIMES.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTN -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGION.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE THE LAST FEW NGTS. A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT TO OUR WEST. WITH A
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE WATER...HAVE INCLUDED LATE NIGHT SLGT CHC
-SHRA FOR SRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BUILDING DIRTY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BUT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE A LOW LEVEL
MOIST SSELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HEDGE ON POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH THE SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BUT ALSO THE CHC OF SHWRS THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THRU THE UPPER FLOW. FOR 4TH/5TH
PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID. BEYOND THE 5TH PD USED
THE ADJUSTED MEX TEMPS FOR MINS AND STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR
MAX`S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MTN ZONES. .
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR XCPT MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUES.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. NO FLAGS UP. A SE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ENHANCED SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N AND E
OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT MAINLY FROM THE MOIST
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE
MODERATE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
POHL
000
FXUS61 KGYX 172152
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
551 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
---2200Z UPDATE---
FORECAST PACKAGE MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES A BIT TO HANDLE DIURNAL TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE DOWNSLOPING CONDS NOW TAKING
HOLD OVER SWRN PTNS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FURTHER TO
THE N.
SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST UP IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS
JUST WARM ENOUGH ALONG THE CST TO PREVENT ANY ADVISORIES FOR THAT
REGION. USED A BLEND OF MATCH MET/MAV MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL FEEL CHILLY AND RAW WITH A MARITIME FEEL TO THE
AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MARITIMES.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTN -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGION.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE THE LAST FEW NGTS. A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT TO OUR WEST. WITH A
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE WATER...HAVE INCLUDED LATE NIGHT SLGT CHC
-SHRA FOR SRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BUILDING DIRTY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BUT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE A LOW LEVEL
MOIST SSELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HEDGE ON POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH THE SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BUT ALSO THE CHC OF SHWRS THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THRU THE UPPER FLOW. FOR 4TH/5TH
PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID. BEYOND THE 5TH PD USED
THE ADJUSTED MEX TEMPS FOR MINS AND STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR
MAX`S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MTN ZONES. .
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR XCPT MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUES.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. NO FLAGS UP. A SE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ENHANCED SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N AND E
OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT MAINLY FROM THE MOIST
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE
MODERATE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KGYX 171806
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
206 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE DOWNSLOPING CONDS NOW TAKING
HOLD OVER SWRN PTNS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FURTHER TO
THE N.
SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST UP IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS
JUST WARM ENOUGH ALONG THE CST TO PREVENT ANY ADVISORIES FOR THAT
REGION. USED A BLEND OF MATCH MET/MAV MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL FEEL CHILLY AND RAW WITH A MARITIME FEEL TO THE
AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MARITIMES.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTN -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGION.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE THE LAST FEW NGTS. A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT TO OUR WEST. WITH A
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE WATER...HAVE INCLUDED LATE NIGHT SLGT CHC
-SHRA FOR SRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BUILDING DIRTY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BUT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE A LOW LEVEL
MOIST SSELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HEDGE ON POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH THE SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BUT ALSO THE CHC OF SHWRS THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THRU THE UPPER FLOW. FOR 4TH/5TH
PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID. BEYOND THE 5TH PD USED
THE ADJUSTED MEX TEMPS FOR MINS AND STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR
MAX`S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MTN ZONES. .
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR XCPT MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUES.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. NO FLAGS UP. A SE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ENHANCED SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N AND E
OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT MAINLY FROM THE MOIST
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE
MODERATE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 171511
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1111 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ADNL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FCST BASED ON CRNT CONDS.
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
DOWNSLOPING BEGINNING TO KICK IN SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS WITH GOOD MIXING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS. SEAS CONT TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THE SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDDED PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...
UPDATED FCST TO ADD SLGT CHC -SHRA THIS MORNING TO NE MAINE
ZONES PER LATEST RADAR. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH FOR TDA.
ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W TDA CONTINUING THE NW FLOW
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY TDA...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON THURSDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SRN AND INTO CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE THE N/MT ZONES SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD -SHRA TDA DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS WON`T BE NEARLY AS WRM AS THURSDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS IS
MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING CD FNT. H8 TEMPS WERE PLUS 10 C OR
HIGHER ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BE LESS THAN PLUS 5 C TDA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE US MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S N AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 S. THE GUSTY NW WINDS TDA SHOULD
KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH IT
MAY TRY TO SET UP NEAR THE END OF THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT NW WIND
BEGINS TO LET UP. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TDA.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEAR TERM FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE HIGH SETTLING IN TNGT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS
AROUND AS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND SLIDING IN ON NW
FLOW ALOFT. STILL SHOULD SEE LGT WINDS AND TEMPS COOLING OFF INTO
THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMON NEAR THE
COAST. FROST WILL BE PSBL TNGT...MORE SO OVER N/MT ZONES.
ON SATURDAY THE MODELS DROP A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT
SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE IS
BETWEEN THE UPR LVL RIDGE TO THE W AND THE UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES. IT ALSO WILL HELP DEVELOP A WRM FNT TO OUR W AS A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH NE TOWARD THE NE U.S. THE UPR LVL
FEATURE AND APPROACHING/DEVELOPING WRM FNT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY AS INDICATED BY
INCREASING RH IN THE MODELS. THERE IS EVEN THE SLGT CHC OF A LGT
SHOWER OR TWO WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH PERHAPS A HIGHER CHC ACROSS
THE N/MT ZONES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
RFC QPF /WHICH HAS VERY LGT AMOUNTS/ FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRAVEL EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
FROM EARLY SPRING CHILL.
IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MT ZONES. GUSTY NW WINDS TDA...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE ON THURSDAY. THE NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM
FORMING TDA.
LONG TERM...
MON - TUE...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS. SEAS CONT TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THE SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.
LONG TERM...
SUN NIGHT - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20
TO 30 PCT ACROSS SRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TDA. HOWEVER,
AS GREEN UP CONTINUES CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT ANY RED FLAG
HEADLINES. IN THE N RH VALUES WON`T BE AS LOW AND THERE WILL BE
LESS SUNSHINE THERE TDA AS WELL. FAIRLY LGT WINDS SATURDAY AND RH
VALUES ABOUT 10 PCT HIGHER SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER FAIRLY LOW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KGYX 171241
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
841 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS. SEAS CONT TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THE SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDDED PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...
UPDATED FCST TO ADD SLGT CHC -SHRA THIS MORNING TO NE MAINE
ZONES PER LATEST RADAR. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH FOR TDA.
ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W TDA CONTINUING THE NW FLOW
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY TDA...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON THURSDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SRN AND INTO CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE THE N/MT ZONES SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD -SHRA TDA DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS WON`T BE NEARLY AS WRM AS THURSDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS IS
MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING CD FNT. H8 TEMPS WERE PLUS 10 C OR
HIGHER ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BE LESS THAN PLUS 5 C TDA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE US MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S N AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 S. THE GUSTY NW WINDS TDA SHOULD
KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH IT
MAY TRY TO SET UP NEAR THE END OF THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT NW WIND
BEGINS TO LET UP. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TDA.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEAR TERM FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE HIGH SETTLING IN TNGT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS
AROUND AS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND SLIDING IN ON NW
FLOW ALOFT. STILL SHOULD SEE LGT WINDS AND TEMPS COOLING OFF INTO
THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMON NEAR THE
COAST. FROST WILL BE PSBL TNGT...MORE SO OVER N/MT ZONES.
ON SATURDAY THE MODELS DROP A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT
SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE IS
BETWEEN THE UPR LVL RIDGE TO THE W AND THE UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES. IT ALSO WILL HELP DEVELOP A WRM FNT TO OUR W AS A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH NE TOWARD THE NE U.S. THE UPR LVL
FEATURE AND APPROACHING/DEVELOPING WRM FNT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY AS INDICATED BY
INCREASING RH IN THE MODELS. THERE IS EVEN THE SLGT CHC OF A LGT
SHOWER OR TWO WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH PERHAPS A HIGHER CHC ACROSS
THE N/MT ZONES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
RFC QPF /WHICH HAS VERY LGT AMOUNTS/ FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRAVEL EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
FROM EARLY SPRING CHILL.
IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MT ZONES. GUSTY NW WINDS TDA...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE ON THURSDAY. THE NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM
FORMING TDA.
LONG TERM...
MON - TUE...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS. SEAS CONT TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THE SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.
LONG TERM...
SUN NIGHT - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20
TO 30 PCT ACROSS SRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TDA. HOWEVER,
AS GREEN UP CONTINUES CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT ANY RED FLAG
HEADLINES. IN THE N RH VALUES WON`T BE AS LOW AND THERE WILL BE
LESS SUNSHINE THERE TDA AS WELL. FAIRLY LGT WINDS SATURDAY AND RH
VALUES ABOUT 10 PCT HIGHER SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER FAIRLY LOW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FCST TO ADD SLGT CHC -SHRA THIS MORNING TO NE MAINE ZONES
PER LATEST RADAR. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH FOR TDA. ANY
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W TDA CONTINUING THE NW FLOW
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY TDA...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON THURSDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SRN AND INTO CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE THE N/MT ZONES SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD -SHRA TDA DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS WON`T BE NEARLY AS WRM AS THURSDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS IS
MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING CD FNT. H8 TEMPS WERE PLUS 10 C OR
HIGHER ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BE LESS THAN PLUS 5 C TDA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE US MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S N AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 S. THE GUSTY NW WINDS TDA SHOULD
KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH IT
MAY TRY TO SET UP NEAR THE END OF THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT NW WIND
BEGINS TO LET UP. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TDA.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEAR TERM FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DESPITE THE HIGH SETTLING IN TNGT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS
AROUND AS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND SLIDING IN ON NW
FLOW ALOFT. STILL SHOULD SEE LGT WINDS AND TEMPS COOLING OFF INTO
THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMON NEAR THE
COAST. FROST WILL BE PSBL TNGT...MORE SO OVER N/MT ZONES.
ON SATURDAY THE MODELS DROP A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT
SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE IS
BETWEEN THE UPR LVL RIDGE TO THE W AND THE UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES. IT ALSO WILL HELP DEVELOP A WRM FNT TO OUR W AS A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH NE TOWARD THE NE U.S. THE UPR LVL
FEATURE AND APPROACHING/DEVELOPING WRM FNT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY AS INDICATED BY
INCREASING RH IN THE MODELS. THERE IS EVEN THE SLGT CHC OF A LGT
SHOWER OR TWO WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH PERHAPS A HIGHER CHC ACROSS
THE N/MT ZONES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
RFC QPF /WHICH HAS VERY LGT AMOUNTS/ FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRAVEL EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
FROM EARLY SPRING CHILL.
IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MT ZONES. GUSTY NW WINDS TDA...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE ON THURSDAY. THE NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM
FORMING TDA.
LONG TERM...
MON - TUE...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WHICH RESULTED IN NO MORE THAN A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS /EXCEPT THE
BAYS/ PER LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOWING 5 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. TREND WILL BE FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE AND THEY SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING HOURS. OTRW HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM THE W TDA WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS...BUT
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS. AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION TNGT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS
BEGIN TO TURN ONSHORE SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AS SHOULD SEAS.
LONG TERM...
SUN NIGHT - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20
TO 30 PCT ACROSS SRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TDA. HOWEVER,
AS GREEN UP CONTINUES CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT ANY RED FLAG
HEADLINES. IN THE N RH VALUES WON`T BE AS LOW AND THERE WILL BE
LESS SUNSHINE THERE TDA AS WELL. FAIRLY LGT WINDS SATURDAY AND RH
VALUES ABOUT 10 PCT HIGHER SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER FAIRLY LOW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 170719
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W TDA CONTINUING THE NW FLOW
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY TDA...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON THURSDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SRN AND INTO CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE THE N/MT ZONES SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD -SHRA TDA DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS WON`T BE NEARLY AS WRM AS THURSDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS IS
MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING CD FNT. H8 TEMPS WERE PLUS 10 C OR
HIGHER ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BE LESS THAN PLUS 5 C TDA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE US MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S N AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 S. THE GUSTY NW WINDS TDA SHOULD
KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH IT
MAY TRY TO SET UP NEAR THE END OF THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT NW WIND
BEGINS TO LET UP. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TDA.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEAR TERM FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DESPITE THE HIGH SETTLING IN TNGT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS
AROUND AS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND SLIDING IN ON NW
FLOW ALOFT. STILL SHOULD SEE LGT WINDS AND TEMPS COOLING OFF INTO
THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMON NEAR THE
COAST. FROST WILL BE PSBL TNGT...MORE SO OVER N/MT ZONES.
ON SATURDAY THE MODELS DROP A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT
SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE IS
BETWEEN THE UPR LVL RIDGE TO THE W AND THE UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES. IT ALSO WILL HELP DEVELOP A WRM FNT TO OUR W AS A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH NE TOWARD THE NE U.S. THE UPR LVL
FEATURE AND APPROACHING/DEVELOPING WRM FNT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY AS INDICATED BY
INCREASING RH IN THE MODELS. THERE IS EVEN THE SLGT CHC OF A LGT
SHOWER OR TWO WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH PERHAPS A HIGHER CHC ACROSS
THE N/MT ZONES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
RFC QPF /WHICH HAS VERY LGT AMOUNTS/ FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRAVEL EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
FROM EARLY SPRING CHILL.
IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MT ZONES. GUSTY NW WINDS TDA...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE ON THURSDAY. THE NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM
FORMING TDA.
LONG TERM...
MON - TUE...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS
/EXCEPT THE BAYS/ PER LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOWING 5 TO 6 FT SEAS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. TREND WILL BE FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE AND THEY
SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING HOURS.
OTRW HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W TDA WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY
NW WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS. AS THE HIGH CRESTS
OVER THE REGION TNGT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW SCA
LEVELS. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN ONSHORE SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AS SHOULD SEAS.
LONG TERM...
SUN NIGHT - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20
TO 30 PCT ACROSS SRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TDA. HOWEVER,
AS GREEN UP CONTINUES CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT ANY RED FLAG
HEADLINES. IN THE N RH VALUES WON`T BE AS LOW AND THERE WILL BE
LESS SUNSHINE THERE TDA AS WELL. FAIRLY LGT WINDS SATURDAY AND RH
VALUES ABOUT 10 PCT HIGHER SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER FAIRLY LOW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 170436
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1236 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. MAIN CHANGE IS TO DROP
ANY MENTION OF PRCP ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES PER LATEST RADAR WHICH
SHOWS ANY LEFTOVER PRCP TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA AND
STAYING OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
OTRW A TRANQUIL NGT OF WX WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND MTR REPORTS. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND
AND LOWER DEW POINTS DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY F OVERNIGHT. CONT TO
FCST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S N AND 40S S WITH SOME
LOWER 50S SE NH AND COASTAL SW ME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE E LEAVING A CONTINUED NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC/ALFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WHILE IN THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE THE MOST SUN. FRI NIGHT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR OVER MOST
AREAS AS THE DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDS COMBINING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
MAV GUID TEMPS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SAT AND SUN AND MOVE EAST
MON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER. FOR MONDAY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE SW LATER IN THE DAY AND PUSH A
WARM FRONT THRU. BOTH MODELS THEN DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR. OCCASIONAL GUSTY NW
WINDS ON FRIDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT. MVFR/IFR SAT NIGHT IN FOG ESPECIALLY
AT PWM/RKD DUE TO PERSISTENT SE FLOW. IFR/MVFR IN FOG SUN MORN
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR SUN AFTN. BACK TO MVFR/IFR SUN
NGT THRU MONDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO ISSUE
AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BASED ON
BUOY REPORTS OF SEAS AVERAGING AROUND 5 FT WITH SOME SEAS UP TO 7
FT OVER THE OUTER MOST WATERS. OTRW JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND
FCST OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LGT THRU FRIDAY NGT. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME LATE TNGT THEN CONT TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NGT.
LONG TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS SAT AND SUN. SCA WINDS PSBL MON AS
WINDS FRESHEN FROM SW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS
A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY
BUT NOT AS STRONG AND GUSTY. GREEN UP CONTINUES AND THE COMBO OF
THE WIND/RH VALUES NOT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 162352
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
752 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
---0000Z UPDATE---
WILL BRING DOWN THE SCA WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO
MOST OF THE PACKAGE. MODIFIED THE WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW AND ADDED SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SEEMS TO BE PERSISTENT...EVEN
THOUGH MODEL DATA IS CONSISTENT IN TAKING IT OUT BY MORNING. WILL
GO KIND OF MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH IT AND IT COULD AFFECT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IF IT STICKS AROUND LONG ENOUGH.
---2200Z UPDATE---
WINDS SHOULD START TO DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE WELL
MIXED LOWER LEVEL SHOULD START TO DEVELOP AN INVERSION AS EVENING
SETS UP. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE AND WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE
WOULD. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS A BIT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE DOWNSLOPING WNWLY
FLOW DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SHWRS ARE
PSBL IN THE MTNS BUT OVER THE REST OF THE REGION JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID WAS USED FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE E LEAVING A CONTINUED NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC/ALFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WHILE IN THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE THE MOST SUN. FRI NIGHT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR OVER MOST
AREAS AS THE DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDS COMBINING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
MAV GUID TEMPS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SAT AND SUN AND MOVE EAST
MON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER. FOR MONDAY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE SW LATER IN THE DAY AND PUSH A
WARM FRONT THRU. BOTH MODELS THEN DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT. MVFR/IFR SAT NIGHT IN FOG ESPECIALLY
AT PWM/RKD DUE TO PERSISTENT SE FLOW. IFR/MVFR IN FOG SUN MORN
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR SUN AFTN. BACK TO MVFR/IFR SUN
NGT THRU MONDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL CONT THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SS AND OFFSHORE WINDS NOT ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD
MUCH AS NOTED ON THE BUOYS SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
FOR TNGT INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE WNWLY FLOW WILL CONT BUT
REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH
SOME...AND BY FRI NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.
LONG TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS SAT AND SUN. SCA WINDS PSBL MON AS
WINDS FRESHEN FROM SW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS
A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AND GUSTY. GREEN UP CONTINUES AND THE COMBO OF THE WIND/RH
VALUES NOT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
POHL
000
FXUS61 KGYX 162146
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
546 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
---2200Z UPDATE---
WINDS SHOULD START TO DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE WELL
MIXED LOWER LEVEL SHOULD START TO DEVELOP AN INVERSION AS EVENING
SETS UP. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE AND WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE
WOULD. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS A BIT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE DOWNSLOPING WNWLY
FLOW DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SHWRS ARE
PSBL IN THE MTNS BUT OVER THE REST OF THE REGION JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID WAS USED FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE E LEAVING A CONTINUED NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC/ALFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WHILE IN THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE THE MOST SUN. FRI NIGHT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR OVER MOST
AREAS AS THE DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDS COMBINING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
MAV GUID TEMPS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SAT AND SUN AND MOVE EAST
MON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER. FOR MONDAY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE SW LATER IN THE DAY AND PUSH A
WARM FRONT THRU. BOTH MODELS THEN DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT. MVFR/IFR SAT NIGHT IN FOG ESPECIALLY
AT PWM/RKD DUE TO PERSISTENT SE FLOW. IFR/MVFR IN FOG SUN MORN
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR SUN AFTN. BACK TO MVFR/IFR SUN
NGT THRU MONDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL CONT THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SS AND OFFSHORE WINDS NOT ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD
MUCH AS NOTED ON THE BUOYS SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
FOR TNGT INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE WNWLY FLOW WILL CONT BUT
REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH
SOME...AND BY FRI NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.
LONG TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS SAT AND SUN. SCA WINDS PSBL MON AS
WINDS FRESHEN FROM SW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS
A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AND GUSTY. GREEN UP CONTINUES AND THE COMBO OF THE WIND/RH
VALUES NOT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
POHL
000
FXUS61 KGYX 161902
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE DOWNSLOPING WNWLY
FLOW DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SHWRS ARE
PSBL IN THE MTNS BUT OVER THE REST OF THE REGION JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID WAS USED FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE E LEAVING A CONTINUED NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC/ALFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WHILE IN THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE THE MOST SUN. FRI NIGHT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR OVER MOST
AREAS AS THE DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDS COMBINING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
MAV GUID TEMPS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SAT AND SUN AND MOVE EAST
MON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER. FOR MONDAY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE SW LATER IN THE DAY AND PUSH A
WARM FRONT THRU. BOTH MODELS THEN DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT. MVFR/IFR SAT NIGHT IN FOG ESPECIALLY
AT PWM/RKD DUE TO PERSISTENT SE FLOW. IFR/MVFR IN FOG SUN MORN
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR SUN AFTN. BACK TO MVFR/IFR SUN
NGT THRU MONDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL CONT THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SS AND OFFSHORE WINDS NOT ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD
MUCH AS NOTED ON THE BUOYS SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
FOR TNGT INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE WNWLY FLOW WILL CONT BUT
REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH
SOME...AND BY FRI NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.
LONG TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS SAT AND SUN. SCA WINDS PSBL MON AS
WINDS FRESHEN FROM SW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS
A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AND GUSTY. GREEN UP CONTINUES AND THE COMBO OF THE WIND/RH
VALUES NOT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 161315
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
915 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING VERY GUSTY
WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE: UPDATED TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS OVER MOST
AREAS AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND WITH H85
TEMPS OF +9C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH MID 70S-LWR 80S. FOG HAS
QUICKLY BURNED OFF THIS MRNG OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE
MIDCOAST AREAS THE FOG MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT SUNNY CONDS INTO THE AFTN AND TOOK OUT THE
MENTION OF MRNG FOG. ALSO LWRD POPS FOR CNTRL/NRN AREAS THIS AFTN
AND HELD OFF MOST OF THE SHWRS OVER NRN AREAS UNTIL LATE
AFTN/EVNG. DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE MOSUN CONDS GOING
WELL INTO THE LATE AFTN HRS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE WRM FNT HAS PUSHED E AS IS A QUICKLY
FOLLOWING CD FNT. HOWEVER, A SECOND CD FNT IS STALLED TO OUR W.
THIS IS ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO DROP OFF AS SKIES CLR OUT. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL CREATING A MOIST BOUNDARY LYR THERE ARE AREAS OF
DENSE F FORMING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL MTR OBSERVATIONS. WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE W AFTER DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THE F.
THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES TDA AS A LOW LVL JET MOVES IN ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING CD FNT. AS THE SOUNDING QUICKLY MIXES OUT
THIS MORNING AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE 60S AND INTO THE 70S OVER SRN
AREAS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE W WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO MAYBE
EVEN 35 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY FROM NOON THRU ABOUT 6 PM.
SKIES WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS OVER SRN AREAS TDA WHILE
NRN AREAS SEE MORE CLOUDS WITH A FEW -SHRA ARE PSBL DUE TO UPSLOPE
SFC FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACTING ON LOW LVL MOISTURE. HIGH
TEMPS TDA IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S N AND 70S S WITH PSBL 80
DEGREES FOR SRN NH. STRONG W WINDS SHOULD KEEP OUT ANY SEA BREEZE
THOUGH THE MID COAST WIND DIRECTION MAY TRY TO BACK A BIT TO THE W
SW. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...MET/MAV MOS AND RFC QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SECONDARY CD FNT MOVES E OF THE AREA THIS EVE. STILL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT...UPSLOPE NW SFC WINDS AND LOW LVL MOISTURE AROUND
TNGT SO THAT CLOUDS AND MAYBE ISOLD TO PSBL SCT -SHRA PSBL IN THE
N WHILE THE S SEE SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRCP. THE NW FLOW CONTINUES
AT THE SFC BUT THE UPR LVL CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE WITH AN UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DRY UP SO NO MORE THAN ISOLD -SHRA PSBL IN THE N.
SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDINESS THAN ON THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND
OF GFS/NAM...MET/MAV MOS AND RFC QPF.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN NH ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES EVEN OUT SOME WITH 60S AREAWIDE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT FLOW A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP
SUNDAY KEEPING COASTAL AREAS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS AND
MOISTURE TO RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS OVER
THE AREA ORIENTED EAST TO WEST. THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS THIS
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE SEVERAL MESOLOWS FORM
AND MOVE NE ALONG IN. WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS THEY
DO AGREE ON A PROLONGED CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES.
A COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE DURING THE EXTENDED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RISE TO 14-16 DEGREES C WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO 70S AND PERHAPS A
FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH INSULATING CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GUSTY W WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF TNGT. CIG
MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT HIE TNGT.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE SCA
THRU 8 PM THIS EVE WITH GUSTY W WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS DROP
OFF TNGT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 5 FT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KNOCK DOWN
SEAS TNGT.
LONG TERM...SEAS AND WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY W WINDS DEVELOP TDA AS AIR MASS DRIES OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN AREAS. WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH AND MAYBE AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE
PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. RH MIN VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PCT OVER SRN AREAS
BUT NOT AS CRITICAL IN THE N WHERE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA ARE PSBL
TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES PUSH THE FIRE WX THREAT
CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE RAINFALL LAST NGT AND GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR WILL HELP OFFSET THE DRY WINDY CONDITIONS
TODAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THIS AND
WILL BE UPDATED EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
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