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000
FXUS61 KGYX 290827
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY THEN PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST
OVERHEAD TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT...BUT HAVING A TOUGH
TIME WORKING IN UNDER WEAK NW FLOW IN MID LVLS...SO CLOUDS AND A
FEW FLURRIES STILL BEING PRODUCE BY UPSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE MTNS.
ONCE MID LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE CWA EARLY TODAY...SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING THERE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO VARY QUITE A BIT...BOTH
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY /KHIE WAS DOWN TO 5F AT MIDNIGHT...BUT
BACK UP TO 16F NOW/. COLDEST SPOTS ARE THE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH
KSFM AND KIZG COMING AT 5F AT 08Z.

THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY SUNNY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CIRRUS...FROM SW TO NE...DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SFC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH THE SNOWPACK...AND THERE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED MIXING TODAY...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM AROUND 32 ON
THE COAST...TO THE LOW AND MID 20S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE 500MB SHORT WAVE TRACKING WELL N OF THE CWA ON
SUN. IT WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN ZONES...PERHAPS CHANGING TO
SHRA. THE NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FZRA SUN MORNING AS
THE WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...WHILE THE SFC WARM FRONT HOLDS BACK
AT THE SFC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK IN ALONG THE
COAST...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL...AND
WELL INTO THE 30S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND THE MTNS OF NH. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME SEE FOG DEVELOPING SUN AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR WORKS
IN OVER THE SNOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE
NEXT IMPULSE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR
MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.




&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS I SHSN/SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
AM.

LONG TERM...

MON AND WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA WINDS/SEAS LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE LOW
END GALES SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA
SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290827
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY THEN PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST
OVERHEAD TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT...BUT HAVING A TOUGH
TIME WORKING IN UNDER WEAK NW FLOW IN MID LVLS...SO CLOUDS AND A
FEW FLURRIES STILL BEING PRODUCE BY UPSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE MTNS.
ONCE MID LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE CWA EARLY TODAY...SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING THERE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO VARY QUITE A BIT...BOTH
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY /KHIE WAS DOWN TO 5F AT MIDNIGHT...BUT
BACK UP TO 16F NOW/. COLDEST SPOTS ARE THE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH
KSFM AND KIZG COMING AT 5F AT 08Z.

THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY SUNNY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CIRRUS...FROM SW TO NE...DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SFC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH THE SNOWPACK...AND THERE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED MIXING TODAY...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM AROUND 32 ON
THE COAST...TO THE LOW AND MID 20S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE 500MB SHORT WAVE TRACKING WELL N OF THE CWA ON
SUN. IT WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN ZONES...PERHAPS CHANGING TO
SHRA. THE NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FZRA SUN MORNING AS
THE WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...WHILE THE SFC WARM FRONT HOLDS BACK
AT THE SFC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK IN ALONG THE
COAST...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL...AND
WELL INTO THE 30S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND THE MTNS OF NH. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME SEE FOG DEVELOPING SUN AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR WORKS
IN OVER THE SNOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE
NEXT IMPULSE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR
MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.




&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS I SHSN/SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
AM.

LONG TERM...

MON AND WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA WINDS/SEAS LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE LOW
END GALES SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA
SCHWIBS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290444
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1144 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1140 PM...QUICK UPDATE TO THROUGH SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST
AROUND THE WHITES AS NW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY LVL SEEMS TO
CONTINUE. THIS HAS ALSO PRODUCED A WIDE ARRAY OF TEMPS AS MANY OF
THE SHELTERED SPOTS HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT OTHER SPOTS STILL SHOWING
LIGHT W-NW WIND. THERE FORE TEMPS VARY A LOT OVER SHORT DISTANCES
/25F AT KPWM AND 10F AT KSFM/. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND MINS TO
SOME DEGREE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
IN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALLOW SOME LATE DECOUPLING AT
MANY SPOTS.

PREV DISC:
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST
MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.
I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME
LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE
PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOW TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE
REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY
TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB
BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE
FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290444
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1144 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1140 PM...QUICK UPDATE TO THROUGH SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST
AROUND THE WHITES AS NW FLOW ABV THE BOUNDARY LVL SEEMS TO
CONTINUE. THIS HAS ALSO PRODUCED A WIDE ARRAY OF TEMPS AS MANY OF
THE SHELTERED SPOTS HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT OTHER SPOTS STILL SHOWING
LIGHT W-NW WIND. THERE FORE TEMPS VARY A LOT OVER SHORT DISTANCES
/25F AT KPWM AND 10F AT KSFM/. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND MINS TO
SOME DEGREE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
IN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALLOW SOME LATE DECOUPLING AT
MANY SPOTS.

PREV DISC:
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST
MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.
I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME
LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE
PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOW TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE
REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY
TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB
BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE
FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
935 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
TEMPS FALLING RATHER QUICKLY AS FCST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
FCST ATTM BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST
MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.
I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME
LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE
PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOW TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE
REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY
TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB
BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE
FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 290246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
935 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
TEMPS FALLING RATHER QUICKLY AS FCST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
FCST ATTM BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST
MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.
I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME
LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE
PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOW TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE
REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY
TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB
BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE
FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
935 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
TEMPS FALLING RATHER QUICKLY AS FCST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
FCST ATTM BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST
MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.
I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME
LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE
PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOW TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE
REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY
TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB
BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE
FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 290246
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
935 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
TEMPS FALLING RATHER QUICKLY AS FCST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
FCST ATTM BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC:
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST
MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.
I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME
LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE
PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOW TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE
REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY
TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB
BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE
FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 282008
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST
MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.
I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME
LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE
PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOW TEMPS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE
REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY
TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB
BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE
FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
HAWLEY/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282008
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND CREST OVERHEAD
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER LEADING TO A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST
MODEL TONIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A BIT COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.
I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF/GFS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE WITH SOME
LOWER TEENS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
BEING THE COLDEST BY FAR. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF. I USED THE
PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF TO POPULATE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A BIT BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY. I USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
LOW TEMPS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MID WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
COMES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPERATURE BEGIN
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE
REGION. INITIALLY THE STRING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MORNING... BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY
TO PUT A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIG SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND TYPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AS THIS IS STILL DAY 6, BUT CERTAINLY TRENDING TOWARDS
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD PRECIP EVENT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOME EARLY MVFR/IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IS SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE AND LEB
BUT ELSEWHERE RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND APPROACH GALE
FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
HAWLEY/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281453
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING WILL
END THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY IN NH WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEARING.

PREVIOUSLY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INVERTED TROUGH
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ME AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
-SN/SHSN BEING REPORTED FROM CENTRAL NH SOUTHEAST TO THE SEACOAST.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM12...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR/RAP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH QPF AND
LOOKS TO LINGER IT THRU ABOUT 15Z...ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
BY 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...AND PARTS OF YORK COUNTY ME...MAYBE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.
NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATIOS ARE IN THE 15-20 TO 1
RANGE. ONCE THE 700MB TROUGH CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY...TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP...SO
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING TH AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S
SOUTH AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND SHOULD VERY GOOD RAD
COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WHILE MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVERDOES RAD COOLING...A FRESH SNOWPACK MAY
MAKE IT MORE REASONABLE. HAVE USED A TRAD BLEND OF MODELS FOR MINS
BUT HAVE GIVEN THE MAV/MET MORE WEIGHT...WHICH BRING LOWS IN THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS CLOSE TO ZERO...AND EVEN THE WARMER SRN ZONES
WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR MINS.

SATURDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES IN
THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LISTED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT IMPULSE
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN AND LOW CLOUDS AT
KPSM/KCON/KLEB/KHIE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN STEADIER SHSN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECT BY MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED
THRU SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - MON...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SEAS OF 5-6 FT....ALTHOUGH THIS IS
MOSTLY DUE TO SWELL...SOME WIND WAVES ARE BEING GENERATED BY NE
JET ALONG THE SW ME COAST...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

SUN - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.

SUN AND TUE...WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS COULD APPROACH GALE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TFH





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281453
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING WILL
END THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY IN NH WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEARING.

PREVIOUSLY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INVERTED TROUGH
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ME AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
-SN/SHSN BEING REPORTED FROM CENTRAL NH SOUTHEAST TO THE SEACOAST.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM12...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR/RAP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH QPF AND
LOOKS TO LINGER IT THRU ABOUT 15Z...ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
BY 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...AND PARTS OF YORK COUNTY ME...MAYBE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.
NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATIOS ARE IN THE 15-20 TO 1
RANGE. ONCE THE 700MB TROUGH CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY...TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP...SO
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING TH AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S
SOUTH AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND SHOULD VERY GOOD RAD
COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WHILE MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVERDOES RAD COOLING...A FRESH SNOWPACK MAY
MAKE IT MORE REASONABLE. HAVE USED A TRAD BLEND OF MODELS FOR MINS
BUT HAVE GIVEN THE MAV/MET MORE WEIGHT...WHICH BRING LOWS IN THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS CLOSE TO ZERO...AND EVEN THE WARMER SRN ZONES
WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR MINS.

SATURDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES IN
THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LISTED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT IMPULSE
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN AND LOW CLOUDS AT
KPSM/KCON/KLEB/KHIE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN STEADIER SHSN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECT BY MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED
THRU SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - MON...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SEAS OF 5-6 FT....ALTHOUGH THIS IS
MOSTLY DUE TO SWELL...SOME WIND WAVES ARE BEING GENERATED BY NE
JET ALONG THE SW ME COAST...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

SUN - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.

SUN AND TUE...WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS COULD APPROACH GALE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TFH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281133
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
633 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING WILL
END THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...CHASING THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IT LOOKS LIKE
MID LVL TROUGH HAS PICKED UP THE SFC TROUGH...AND CONVERGENCE IS
SHIFTING EWD. HAVE EXPANDED POPS A BIT TO THE N AND E TO COVER
THIS. DEFINITELY SEEING AN EWD PROGRESSION TO THE BACK OF THE SNOW
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NH...AND STILL THE NAM PICKS UP ON THIS NICELY.
SHOULD SEE ALL ACCUM SNOW MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 14-15Z.

PREVIOUSLY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INVERTED TROUGH
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ME AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
-SN/SHSN BEING REPORTED FROM CENTRAL NH SOUTHEAST TO THE SEACOAST.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM12...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR/RAP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH QPF AND
LOOKS TO LINGER IT THRU ABOUT 15Z...ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
BY 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...AND PARTS OF YORK COUNTY ME...MAYBE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.
NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATIOS ARE IN THE 15-20 TO 1
RANGE. ONCE THE 700MB TROUGH CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY...TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP...SO
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING TH AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S
SOUTH AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND SHOULD VERY GOOD RAD
COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WHILE MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVERDOES RAD COOLING...A FRESH SNOWPACK MAY
MAKE IT MORE REASONABLE. HAVE USED A TRAD BLEND OF MODELS FOR MINS
BUT HAVE GIVEN THE MAV/MET MORE WEIGHT...WHICH BRING LOWS IN THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS CLOSE TO ZERO...AND EVEN THE WARMER SRN ZONES
WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR MINS.

SATURDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES IN
THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LISTED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT IMPULSE
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN AND LOW CLOUDS AT
KPSM/KCON/KLEB/KHIE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN STEADIER SHSN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECT BY MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED
THRU SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - MON...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SEAS OF 5-6 FT....ALTHOUGH THIS IS
MOSTLY DUE TO SWELL...SOME WIND WAVES ARE BEING GENERATED BY NE
JET ALONG THE SW ME COAST...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

SUN - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.

SUN AND TUE...WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS COULD APPROACH GALE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281133
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
633 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING WILL
END THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...CHASING THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IT LOOKS LIKE
MID LVL TROUGH HAS PICKED UP THE SFC TROUGH...AND CONVERGENCE IS
SHIFTING EWD. HAVE EXPANDED POPS A BIT TO THE N AND E TO COVER
THIS. DEFINITELY SEEING AN EWD PROGRESSION TO THE BACK OF THE SNOW
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NH...AND STILL THE NAM PICKS UP ON THIS NICELY.
SHOULD SEE ALL ACCUM SNOW MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 14-15Z.

PREVIOUSLY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INVERTED TROUGH
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ME AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
-SN/SHSN BEING REPORTED FROM CENTRAL NH SOUTHEAST TO THE SEACOAST.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NAM12...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR/RAP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH QPF AND
LOOKS TO LINGER IT THRU ABOUT 15Z...ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
BY 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...AND PARTS OF YORK COUNTY ME...MAYBE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.
NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATIOS ARE IN THE 15-20 TO 1
RANGE. ONCE THE 700MB TROUGH CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY...TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP...SO
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING TH AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S
SOUTH AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND SHOULD VERY GOOD RAD
COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WHILE MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVERDOES RAD COOLING...A FRESH SNOWPACK MAY
MAKE IT MORE REASONABLE. HAVE USED A TRAD BLEND OF MODELS FOR MINS
BUT HAVE GIVEN THE MAV/MET MORE WEIGHT...WHICH BRING LOWS IN THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS CLOSE TO ZERO...AND EVEN THE WARMER SRN ZONES
WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR MINS.

SATURDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES IN
THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LISTED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT IMPULSE
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN AND LOW CLOUDS AT
KPSM/KCON/KLEB/KHIE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN STEADIER SHSN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECT BY MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED
THRU SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - MON...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SEAS OF 5-6 FT....ALTHOUGH THIS IS
MOSTLY DUE TO SWELL...SOME WIND WAVES ARE BEING GENERATED BY NE
JET ALONG THE SW ME COAST...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

SUN - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.

SUN AND TUE...WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS COULD APPROACH GALE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280811
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING WILL
END THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ME AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. -SN/SHSN
BEING REPORTED FROM CENTRAL NH SOUTHEAST TO THE SEACOAST. CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE NAM12...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR/RAP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH QPF AND
LOOKS TO LINGER IT THRU ABOUT 15Z...ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
BY 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...AND PARTS OF YORK COUNTY ME...MAYBE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.
NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATIOS ARE IN THE 15-20 TO 1
RANGE. ONCE THE 700MB TROUGH CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY...TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP...SO
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING TH AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S
SOUTH AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND SHOULD VERY GOOD RAD
COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WHILE MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVERDOES RAD COOLING...A FRESH SNOWPACK MAY
MAKE IT MORE REASONABLE. HAVE USED A TRAD BLEND OF MODELS FOR MINS
BUT HAVE GIVEN THE MAV/MET MORE WEIGHT...WHICH BRING LOWS IN THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS CLOSE TO ZERO...AND EVEN THE WARMER SRN ZONES
WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR MINS.

SATURDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES IN
THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LISTED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT IMPULSE
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN AND LOW CLOUDS AT
KPSM/KCON/KLEB/KHIE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN STEADIER SHSN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECT BY MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED
THRU SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - MON...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SEAS OF 5-6 FT....ALTHOUGH THIS IS
MOSTLY DUE TO SWELL...SOME WIND WAVES ARE BEING GENERATED BY NE
JET ALONG THE SW ME COAST...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

SUN - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.

SUN AND TUE...WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS COULD APPROACH GALE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280811
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING WILL
END THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ME AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. -SN/SHSN
BEING REPORTED FROM CENTRAL NH SOUTHEAST TO THE SEACOAST. CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE NAM12...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR/RAP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH QPF AND
LOOKS TO LINGER IT THRU ABOUT 15Z...ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
BY 12Z. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SRN
NH...AND PARTS OF YORK COUNTY ME...MAYBE AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.
NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RATIOS ARE IN THE 15-20 TO 1
RANGE. ONCE THE 700MB TROUGH CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY...TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP...SO
SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING TH AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S
SOUTH AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND SHOULD VERY GOOD RAD
COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WHILE MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVERDOES RAD COOLING...A FRESH SNOWPACK MAY
MAKE IT MORE REASONABLE. HAVE USED A TRAD BLEND OF MODELS FOR MINS
BUT HAVE GIVEN THE MAV/MET MORE WEIGHT...WHICH BRING LOWS IN THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS CLOSE TO ZERO...AND EVEN THE WARMER SRN ZONES
WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR MINS.

SATURDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES IN
THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LISTED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL BRING BRIEF SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT IMPULSE
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE RACING EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IMPULSE WILL DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
NEXT IMPULSE DRIVES YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. IN THE DAILIES...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO -SN AND LOW CLOUDS AT
KPSM/KCON/KLEB/KHIE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN STEADIER SHSN. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECT BY MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED
THRU SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT NIGHT - MON...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SEAS OF 5-6 FT....ALTHOUGH THIS IS
MOSTLY DUE TO SWELL...SOME WIND WAVES ARE BEING GENERATED BY NE
JET ALONG THE SW ME COAST...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

SUN - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.

SUN AND TUE...WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS COULD APPROACH GALE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
MARINE...CEMPA/SCHWIBS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280427
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1127 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1120 PM...BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...RAP/HRRR/NAM12...HAVE
ADJ POPS/QPF/SNOW REGARDING THE WEAK MID LVL TROUGH WORKING
THROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ME. BACKED
OFF POPS WITH LKLY POPS LIMITED TO ROCKINGHAM AND SOUTHERN
MERRIMACK CTYS. BEST CHC FOR SHIN AND LIGHT OCCAMS WILL BE A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...MOST PLACES LOOK TO SEE A DUSTING. ALSO
WOUND DOWN THE POPS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN
ZONES.

PREV DISCUSSION:
BELOW NORMAL - - VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREA
WHERE NO POWER OR HEAT CONTINUES FOR MANY RESIDENTS.

WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...INCOMBINATION
WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM A
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL LIKLEY ROTATE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS ARE RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.

PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
RETURNED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FAR SOUTHEAST NH AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL YORK COUNTY MAINE MAY PICK UP A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE SNOW SHOULD BE DRY...LIGHT AND POWDERY
COMPARED TO THE HEAVY WET CONDITIONS OF LAST NIGHT. WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS...THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE SAME REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP TO THE WEST
WILL BRING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S NORTH
AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OCEAN STRATUS IN
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. SUNDAY LOOKING
RATHER DREARY BUT MILDER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VARIABLE CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE SUN HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH 20S IN
THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
WESTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING IN
SNOW SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR SEAS ONLY.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280219
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
915 PM UPDATE: BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS. THE
AREA OF LGT SNOW STILL REMAINS JUST S AND W OF THE FA AND SHOULD
BEGIN PUSHING INTO SRN AREAS OF NH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
POINTS FURTHER N WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMS REMAIN IN
TACT AND NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION:
BELOW NORMAL - - VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREA
WHERE NO POWER OR HEAT CONTINUES FOR MANY RESIDENTS.

WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...INCOMBINATION
WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM A
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL LIKLEY ROTATE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS ARE RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.

PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
RETURNED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FAR SOUTHEAST NH AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL YORK COUNTY MAINE MAY PICK UP A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE SNOW SHOULD BE DRY...LIGHT AND POWDERY
COMPARED TO THE HEAVY WET CONDITIONS OF LAST NIGHT. WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS...THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE SAME REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP TO THE WEST
WILL BRING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S NORTH
AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OCEAN STRATUS IN
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. SUNDAY LOOKING
RATHER DREARY BUT MILDER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VARIABLE CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE SUN HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH 20S IN
THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
WESTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING IN
SNOW SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR SEAS ONLY.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 271908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
208 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BELOW NORMAL - - VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREA
WHERE NO POWER OR HEAT CONTINUES FOR MANY RESIDENTS.

WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...INCOMBINATION
WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM A
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL LIKLEY ROTATE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS ARE RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.

PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
RETURNED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FAR SOUTHEAST NH AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL YORK COUNTY MAINE MAY PICK UP A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE SNOW SHOULD BE DRY...LIGHT AND POWDERY
COMPARED TO THE HEAVY WET CONDITIONS OF LAST NIGHT. WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS...THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE SAME REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP TO THE WEST
WILL BRING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S NORTH
AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OCEAN STRATUS IN
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. SUNDAY LOOKING
RATHER DREARY BUT MILDER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VARIABLE CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE SUN HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH 20S IN
THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
WESTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING IN
SNOW SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR SEAS ONLY.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
208 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BELOW NORMAL - - VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREA
WHERE NO POWER OR HEAT CONTINUES FOR MANY RESIDENTS.

WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...INCOMBINATION
WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM A
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL LIKLEY ROTATE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS ARE RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.

PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
RETURNED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FAR SOUTHEAST NH AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL YORK COUNTY MAINE MAY PICK UP A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE SNOW SHOULD BE DRY...LIGHT AND POWDERY
COMPARED TO THE HEAVY WET CONDITIONS OF LAST NIGHT. WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS...THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE SAME REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION.

AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP TO THE WEST
WILL BRING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S NORTH
AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING OCEAN STRATUS IN
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. SUNDAY LOOKING
RATHER DREARY BUT MILDER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VARIABLE CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE SUN HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH 20S IN
THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
WESTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING IN
SNOW SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR SEAS ONLY.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...AND SNOW
WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY AND WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY THROUGH TODAY AND COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED DICS...
UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY AS OF 14Z ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. MANY PEOPLE REMAIN
WITHOUT POWER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE LOSS OF HEAT A
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SULL SUN WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY.

MESOSCALE MODELS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH TO
SET UP OVER THE SEACOAST OF NH LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING A FRESH COATING OF SNOW TO THAT REGION. GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PRECIP...HOWEVER THIS CAN
EASILY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS.

PREV DISC...
SFC LOW SITUATED A OF EASTPORT ME AND JUST W OF
YARMOUTH NS AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MARITIMES ATTM...WITH
TRAILING 700MB CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE N AND W...AND THIS
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST BANDS OF SNOW CROSSING THE CWA...IN CLASSIC
COLD CONVEYOR BELT STYLE. BASED ON RAD/SAT AND MESO MODELS THESE
BANDS WILL SHIFT AND DISSIPATE THRU ABOUT 11-12Z...AND THIS TIMES
OUT NICELY WITH CURRENT WSW...SO WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW...AND
TAKE IT DOWN ONCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. COULD SEE AN ADDL INCH
OR TWO...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST IN WRN ME THRU DAY BREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDDAY AT LEAST...BUT MODELS HINTING AT SOME BRIEF MID LVL
RIDGING THIS AFT...SO COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. ALSO..E.XPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID LVL
RIDGING MOVES IN. MAXES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH AS WE SEE SOME CAA
MOVE IN...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING THAT MOVES THRU THIS
AFT...IS WEAK TOUGHING...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS AN E-W ORIENTED TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE ME COAST.
THIS COULD SPILL SOME SHSN OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN INTO
ROCKINGHAM @CODE AND THE MERRIMACK VLY TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE IN COASTAL MASS. STILL...MODELS NOT ALWAYS
SKILLFUL WITH THESE INVERTED TROUGHS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 20S N...TO MID 30S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
WEEKEND STARTS OFF COLD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE TEENS A THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE LEANED A BIT
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AS I EXPECT VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE AND RADIATE
WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN THE LOWS WILL BARELY DIP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE COLD AIR. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY
BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT INVERTED TROUGH COULD PRODUCE IFR AT KPSM TONIGHT

LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL HOLD GALES AS THEY ARE...THRU 7 AM...BUT WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING AT COASTAL LOW TRACKS EWD INTO THE MARITIMES.
WILL NEED TO CONVERT GALES TO SCA FOR WINDS THRU THE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN UP INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO
FAVORABLE TO DRIVE HIGHER WAVES INTO PENOBSCOT BAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCA OR MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
CANNON





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...AND SNOW
WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY AND WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY THROUGH TODAY AND COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED DICS...
UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY AS OF 14Z ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. MANY PEOPLE REMAIN
WITHOUT POWER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE LOSS OF HEAT A
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SULL SUN WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY.

MESOSCALE MODELS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH TO
SET UP OVER THE SEACOAST OF NH LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING A FRESH COATING OF SNOW TO THAT REGION. GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PRECIP...HOWEVER THIS CAN
EASILY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS.

PREV DISC...
SFC LOW SITUATED A OF EASTPORT ME AND JUST W OF
YARMOUTH NS AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MARITIMES ATTM...WITH
TRAILING 700MB CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE N AND W...AND THIS
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST BANDS OF SNOW CROSSING THE CWA...IN CLASSIC
COLD CONVEYOR BELT STYLE. BASED ON RAD/SAT AND MESO MODELS THESE
BANDS WILL SHIFT AND DISSIPATE THRU ABOUT 11-12Z...AND THIS TIMES
OUT NICELY WITH CURRENT WSW...SO WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW...AND
TAKE IT DOWN ONCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. COULD SEE AN ADDL INCH
OR TWO...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST IN WRN ME THRU DAY BREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDDAY AT LEAST...BUT MODELS HINTING AT SOME BRIEF MID LVL
RIDGING THIS AFT...SO COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. ALSO..E.XPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID LVL
RIDGING MOVES IN. MAXES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH AS WE SEE SOME CAA
MOVE IN...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING THAT MOVES THRU THIS
AFT...IS WEAK TOUGHING...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS AN E-W ORIENTED TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE ME COAST.
THIS COULD SPILL SOME SHSN OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN INTO
ROCKINGHAM @CODE AND THE MERRIMACK VLY TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE IN COASTAL MASS. STILL...MODELS NOT ALWAYS
SKILLFUL WITH THESE INVERTED TROUGHS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 20S N...TO MID 30S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
WEEKEND STARTS OFF COLD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE TEENS A THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE LEANED A BIT
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AS I EXPECT VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE AND RADIATE
WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN THE LOWS WILL BARELY DIP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE COLD AIR. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY
BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT INVERTED TROUGH COULD PRODUCE IFR AT KPSM TONIGHT

LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL HOLD GALES AS THEY ARE...THRU 7 AM...BUT WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING AT COASTAL LOW TRACKS EWD INTO THE MARITIMES.
WILL NEED TO CONVERT GALES TO SCA FOR WINDS THRU THE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN UP INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO
FAVORABLE TO DRIVE HIGHER WAVES INTO PENOBSCOT BAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCA OR MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...AND SNOW
WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY AND WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY THROUGH TODAY AND COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SFC LOW SITUATED A OF EASTPORT ME AND JUST W OF YARMOUTH NS AND
TRACKING NE INTO THE MARITIMES ATTM...WITH TRAILING 700MB CLOSED
LOW LOCATED TO THE N AND W...AND THIS RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST BANDS
OF SNOW CROSSING THE CWA...IN CLASSIC COLD CONVEYOR BELT STYLE.
BASED ON RAD/SAT AND MESO MODELS THESE BANDS WILL SHIFT AND
DISSIPATE THRU ABOUT 11-12Z...AND THIS TIMES OUT NICELY WITH
CURRENT WSW...SO WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW...AND TAKE IT DOWN
ONCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. COULD SEE AN ADDL INCH OR
TWO...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST IN WRN ME THRU DAY BREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDDAY AT LEAST...BUT MODELS HINTING AT SOME BRIEF MID LVL
RIDGING THIS AFT...SO COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. ALSO..E.XPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID LVL
RIDGING MOVES IN. MAXES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH AS WE SEE SOME CAA
MOVE IN...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.




&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING THAT MOVES THRU THIS
AFT...IS WEAK TOUGHING...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS AN E-W ORIENTED TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE ME COAST.
THIS COULD SPILL SOME SHSN OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN INTO
ROCKINGHAM @CODE AND THE MERRIMACK VLY TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE IN COASTAL MASS. STILL...MODELS NOT ALWAYS
SKILLFUL WITH THESE INVERTED TROUGHS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 20S N...TO MID 30S S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
WEEKEND STARTS OFF COLD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE TEENS A THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE LEANED A BIT
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AS I EXPECT VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE AND RADIATE
WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN THE LOWS WILL BARELY DIP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE COLD AIR. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY
BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT INVERTED TROUGH COULD PRODUCE IFR AT KPSM TONIGHT

LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL HOLD GALES AS THEY ARE...THRU 7 AM...BUT WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING AT COASTAL LOW TRACKS EWD INTO THE MARITIMES.
WILL NEED TO CONVERT GALES TO SCA FOR WINDS THRU THE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN UP INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO
FAVORABLE TO DRIVE HIGHER WAVES INTO PENOBSCOT BAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCA OR MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...AND SNOW
WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY AND WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY THROUGH TODAY AND COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SFC LOW SITUATED A OF EASTPORT ME AND JUST W OF YARMOUTH NS AND
TRACKING NE INTO THE MARITIMES ATTM...WITH TRAILING 700MB CLOSED
LOW LOCATED TO THE N AND W...AND THIS RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST BANDS
OF SNOW CROSSING THE CWA...IN CLASSIC COLD CONVEYOR BELT STYLE.
BASED ON RAD/SAT AND MESO MODELS THESE BANDS WILL SHIFT AND
DISSIPATE THRU ABOUT 11-12Z...AND THIS TIMES OUT NICELY WITH
CURRENT WSW...SO WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW...AND TAKE IT DOWN
ONCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. COULD SEE AN ADDL INCH OR
TWO...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST IN WRN ME THRU DAY BREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDDAY AT LEAST...BUT MODELS HINTING AT SOME BRIEF MID LVL
RIDGING THIS AFT...SO COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. ALSO..E.XPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID LVL
RIDGING MOVES IN. MAXES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH AS WE SEE SOME CAA
MOVE IN...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.




&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING THAT MOVES THRU THIS
AFT...IS WEAK TOUGHING...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS AN E-W ORIENTED TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE ME COAST.
THIS COULD SPILL SOME SHSN OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN INTO
ROCKINGHAM @CODE AND THE MERRIMACK VLY TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE IN COASTAL MASS. STILL...MODELS NOT ALWAYS
SKILLFUL WITH THESE INVERTED TROUGHS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 20S N...TO MID 30S S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
WEEKEND STARTS OFF COLD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE TEENS A THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE LEANED A BIT
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AS I EXPECT VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE AND RADIATE
WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN THE LOWS WILL BARELY DIP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE COLD AIR. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY
BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT INVERTED TROUGH COULD PRODUCE IFR AT KPSM TONIGHT

LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL HOLD GALES AS THEY ARE...THRU 7 AM...BUT WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING AT COASTAL LOW TRACKS EWD INTO THE MARITIMES.
WILL NEED TO CONVERT GALES TO SCA FOR WINDS THRU THE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN UP INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO
FAVORABLE TO DRIVE HIGHER WAVES INTO PENOBSCOT BAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCA OR MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SNOW CONTINUES
WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES AS FCST. SAT PIX
AND RADAR INDICATE WRAPAROUND BANDING SNOWS DEVELOPING SO SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM FAIRLY
CLOSE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES A PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND BECOME GUSTY. THE HEAVY WET SNOW
ON TREE LIMBS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ON THE 10 PM WSW ADDED AN ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS
ACTION FOR PEOPLE USING GENERATORS.

720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 270328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SNOW CONTINUES
WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES AS FCST. SAT PIX
AND RADAR INDICATE WRAPAROUND BANDING SNOWS DEVELOPING SO SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM FAIRLY
CLOSE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES A PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND BECOME GUSTY. THE HEAVY WET SNOW
ON TREE LIMBS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ON THE 10 PM WSW ADDED AN ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS
ACTION FOR PEOPLE USING GENERATORS.

720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
731 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.


LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
731 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.


LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
217 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
217 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261658
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1158 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1158 AM UPDATE...
ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO
SLEET...THEN SNOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. -SN SWITCHES TO +SN OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. TRAVEL SHOULD BE COMPLETED SOON.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS
ON TRACK AND THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS HAS STABILIZED. DRY
SLOT MAY REACH THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT...CAUSING THE SNOW TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-
     013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261658
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1158 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1158 AM UPDATE...
ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO
SLEET...THEN SNOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. -SN SWITCHES TO +SN OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. TRAVEL SHOULD BE COMPLETED SOON.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS
ON TRACK AND THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS HAS STABILIZED. DRY
SLOT MAY REACH THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT...CAUSING THE SNOW TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-
     013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261441
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
941 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
938 AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS
ON TRACK AND THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS HAS STABILIZED. DRY
SLOT MAY REACH THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT...CAUSING THE SNOW TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-
     013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261441
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
941 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
938 AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS
ON TRACK AND THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS HAS STABILIZED. DRY
SLOT MAY REACH THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT...CAUSING THE SNOW TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-
     013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261202
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260906
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
406 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260906
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
406 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





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