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000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 041006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040445
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1240 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INGEST
THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS
YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN THE MID
LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 040445
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1240 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INGEST
THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS
YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN THE MID
LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040116
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
916 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
01Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR SEVERE THUNDEERSTORM WATCH
WHICH HAS EXPIRED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 040116
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
916 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
01Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR SEVERE THUNDEERSTORM WATCH
WHICH HAS EXPIRED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND
WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 032021
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
421 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
20Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INTO CHESHIRE AND
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE UNTIL 9 PM. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 032021
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
421 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&
20Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INTO CHESHIRE AND
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE UNTIL 9 PM. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 031916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
INITIATE A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S IS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS...EVIDENCED BY KCXX VWP OF 50 KTS IN
THE MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS CELLS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED EARLY IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN ME HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND YOU CAN SEE THIS FROM A LACK OF
CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE CONFINED TO NW OF THIS AREA.

THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE DEVELOPING INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH THUNDER WELL AFTER 00Z AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE DEGREE OF CLEARING/RECOVERY THE
FORECAST AREA SEES AFTER ANY MORNING PCPN. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD DELAY HEATING TUE
IF CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING
THRU THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL EXIST FOR MORE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE ONCE AGAIN FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/WIND ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST REGARDING RECOVERY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WORDING...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...KEEPING ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. ALSO...LITTLE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN THROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWER AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FIRST
IMPULSE...AND PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD THUNDER. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION. THE ULTIMATE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TUE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE RKD...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL
LINGER/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS THRU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LEB AND HIE HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON TUE TSRA THREAT MOVES TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH THE BEST BET IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE. SEAS
WILL REACH 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AND SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS PROBABLY WON/T CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25
KTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031413 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1013 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MID MORNING SEES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS IN SRN
NH AND SWRN ME. COUPLED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STILL
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS TIED TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BACK ACROSS WRN NY.

NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL A LATER THREAT FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS INITIATION WILL DELAY UNTIL FORCING ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...A CONCERN IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
PREFRONTAL TROF...COULD LEAD TO SOME CELLS FIRING FURTHER E THAN
SOME GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. IN FACT A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS DO HAVE TSTMS BUILDING OVER NH IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
PERIOD. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 PLUS
KTS...AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS SUPPORTING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORM OR CLUSTER OF
STORMS. ANY ISOLATED CELL THAT CAN ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
INCLUDES A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST
OF ME AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAND. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT GRADUALLY
AS HEATING INCREASES THRU THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
COOS NH AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031413 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1013 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MID MORNING SEES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS IN SRN
NH AND SWRN ME. COUPLED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STILL
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS TIED TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BACK ACROSS WRN NY.

NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL A LATER THREAT FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS INITIATION WILL DELAY UNTIL FORCING ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...A CONCERN IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
PREFRONTAL TROF...COULD LEAD TO SOME CELLS FIRING FURTHER E THAN
SOME GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. IN FACT A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS DO HAVE TSTMS BUILDING OVER NH IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
PERIOD. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 PLUS
KTS...AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS SUPPORTING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORM OR CLUSTER OF
STORMS. ANY ISOLATED CELL THAT CAN ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
INCLUDES A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST
OF ME AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAND. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT GRADUALLY
AS HEATING INCREASES THRU THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
COOS NH AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031413 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1013 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MID MORNING SEES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS IN SRN
NH AND SWRN ME. COUPLED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STILL
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS TIED TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BACK ACROSS WRN NY.

NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL A LATER THREAT FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS INITIATION WILL DELAY UNTIL FORCING ARRIVES.
HOWEVER...A CONCERN IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
PREFRONTAL TROF...COULD LEAD TO SOME CELLS FIRING FURTHER E THAN
SOME GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. IN FACT A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS DO HAVE TSTMS BUILDING OVER NH IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME
PERIOD. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 PLUS
KTS...AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS SUPPORTING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORM OR CLUSTER OF
STORMS. ANY ISOLATED CELL THAT CAN ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR FEATURES
MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
INCLUDES A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST
OF ME AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE OVER LAND. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT GRADUALLY
AS HEATING INCREASES THRU THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
COOS NH AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030755
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
355 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN COOS NH AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN ME.

TODAY STARTS OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING AS SW WINDS PICK UP AND MIX
DOWN WARM H85 AIR / ~18C /. ONLY ISSUE THROUGH 18Z WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR. RISING TDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY BUIT GOOD CAPPING
SHOULD HOLD THRU THE DAY IN ALL BUT NRN AND ERN ZONES. SEVERE WX
THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE EVEN HERE /ALTHOUGH WRF ARW IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH A MID-LATE AFTERNOON START/...BUT COULD SEE SOME
TSRA POP UP IN THE 3-5 PM...HOWEVER GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL
BE AFTER THIS...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN MANY SPOTS. WITH
THE INCREASING SW FLOW...THE MID COAST FROM CASCO BAY EWD WILL BE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL ME AND ALL
BUT SEACOAST AND MERRIMACK VLY NH.

LOTS OF SEVERE WX INDICATORS SHOWING UP FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA - GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING IN
THE FORM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
JET ENTRY REGION. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 1-1.5K RANGE...WHICH HOLD ON ABV NIGHTTIME INVERSION WELL
INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING MAY NOT BE GREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CWA...BUT STORMS THAT DO FROM TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND WORK INTO NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES. WILL LKLY SEE SOME OF LINE DEVELOP OVER NY/VT AND
MOVE EWD INTO NH AND INTERIOR ME...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THAT
LINE COULD PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WILL HAVE AN ADDL LARGE
HAIL THREAT. SHOULD SEE STORMS WEAKEN LATE EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BEFORE THEY REACH THE COAST...SO THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE WX IS MINIMAL. BUT COULD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTIVE SHRA IN SRN NH AND THE ME COAST THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 60S N...TO THE UPPER 60S S.

COLD FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY MAKES IT THRU THE CWA AS THE 500MB
SHEARS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL START WITH THAT STALLED
FRONTAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTL BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SRN NH. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW...AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARKED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TO RIPPLE
ALONG IT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT INTO
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU MOST OF
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KLEB/KHIE AFTER 19Z INTO HIS
EVENING...AND MAY WORK INTO KCON/KAUG AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SHRA ND FOG LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE COAST ON TUE.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...WIDELY SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...S-SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE. ANOTHER SURGE OF SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE BLO SCA LVLS.


LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1202 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...OTHER THAN USUAL ADJUSTMENT OF T/TD FOR CURRENT
OBS...DECIDED TO SCALE BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY /SEE BELOW/.

PREVIOUSLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY
INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE
OVERLY DENSE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW
POINTS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS...SCALED BACK
POPS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY...KEEPING THE MORNING DRY...AND
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR FAR NRN AND WRN ZONES WHERE CHC
POPS MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON...GIVEN LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

PREVIOUS...ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT
WE HOLD THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME.
THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 030402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1202 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...OTHER THAN USUAL ADJUSTMENT OF T/TD FOR CURRENT
OBS...DECIDED TO SCALE BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY /SEE BELOW/.

PREVIOUSLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY
INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE
OVERLY DENSE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW
POINTS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS...SCALED BACK
POPS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY...KEEPING THE MORNING DRY...AND
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR FAR NRN AND WRN ZONES WHERE CHC
POPS MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON...GIVEN LOW-MID LVL SUBSIDENCE OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.

PREVIOUS...ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT
WE HOLD THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME.
THEREFORE...ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 022339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
739 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ASIDE FROM A FEW DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE WEST...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS. OTHER THAN A
FEW TEMP TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY INLAND FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE OVERLY DENSE
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW POINTS...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT WE HOLD
THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE...ANY
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 021847
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY INLAND FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE OVERLY DENSE
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW POINTS...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT WE HOLD
THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE...ANY
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 021847
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY INLAND FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE OVERLY DENSE
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW POINTS...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT WE HOLD
THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE...ANY
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 021847
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY INLAND FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE OVERLY DENSE
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW POINTS...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT WE HOLD
THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE...ANY
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 021847
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT PATCHY INLAND FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS FOG WILL NOT BE OVERLY DENSE
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO THEIR DEW POINTS...IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST WITH EACH RUN - AND IN FACT WE HOLD
THE HIGHEST POPS UNTIL ABOUT THE 00Z TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE...ANY
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS IN THIS LOCATION THAT SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER FROM
WISCASETT TO ROCKLAND. READINGS WILL APPROACH 85-90 OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE COAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IT IS AT THIS POINT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE IN OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS KEEP
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH RUN. ONCE THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST GETS A BIT COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z
GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 5H LOW WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT MAY DELAY ONSET OF INLAND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS MAINLY FORECAST FOR AFTER 09Z. FOG MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WED EXPECT FOR BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
SURFACE LOW TREKS.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 20 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS OF 5 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 021552
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1152 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN...
MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND DEVELOPING CU FIELD. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT AND WIND FORECASTS...OTHERWISE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES THIS MORNING.

ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
610AM UPDATE: SPED UP CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOWS ACCAS OVER CENTRAL MAINE QUICKLY
PULLING EAST. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO BRING NEAR
TERM GRIDS IN LINE WITH EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE DEALT WITH A LITTLE FOG AT LEB...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED AS OF THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW TAF CYCLE.
FOR THE DAY TODAY EXPECT SOME CU TO DEVELOP /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/...BUT REMAIN FEW-SCT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT HIE/LEB...WITH OTHER
LOCATIONS REMAINING VFR.

WINDS: WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

LLWS: WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LLWS ISSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS 1-
1.5KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH VERY
MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THIS IS IN
THE 18-24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 021552
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1152 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN...
MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND DEVELOPING CU FIELD. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT AND WIND FORECASTS...OTHERWISE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES THIS MORNING.

ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
610AM UPDATE: SPED UP CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOWS ACCAS OVER CENTRAL MAINE QUICKLY
PULLING EAST. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO BRING NEAR
TERM GRIDS IN LINE WITH EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE DEALT WITH A LITTLE FOG AT LEB...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED AS OF THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW TAF CYCLE.
FOR THE DAY TODAY EXPECT SOME CU TO DEVELOP /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/...BUT REMAIN FEW-SCT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT HIE/LEB...WITH OTHER
LOCATIONS REMAINING VFR.

WINDS: WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

LLWS: WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LLWS ISSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS 1-
1.5KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH VERY
MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THIS IS IN
THE 18-24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 021340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT AND
WIND FORECASTS...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES THIS
MORNING.

ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
610AM UPDATE: SPED UP CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOWS ACCAS OVER CENTRAL MAINE QUICKLY
PULLING EAST. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO BRING NEAR
TERM GRIDS IN LINE WITH EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE DEALT WITH A LITTLE FOG AT LEB...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED AS OF THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW TAF CYCLE.
FOR THE DAY TODAY EXPECT SOME CU TO DEVELOP /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/...BUT REMAIN FEW-SCT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT HIE/LEB...WITH OTHER
LOCATIONS REMAINING VFR.

WINDS: WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

LLWS: WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LLWS ISSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS 1-
1.5KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH VERY
MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THIS IS IN
THE 18-24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 021340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS WHICH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT AND
WIND FORECASTS...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES THIS
MORNING.

ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
610AM UPDATE: SPED UP CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOWS ACCAS OVER CENTRAL MAINE QUICKLY
PULLING EAST. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO BRING NEAR
TERM GRIDS IN LINE WITH EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE DEALT WITH A LITTLE FOG AT LEB...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED AS OF THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW TAF CYCLE.
FOR THE DAY TODAY EXPECT SOME CU TO DEVELOP /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/...BUT REMAIN FEW-SCT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT HIE/LEB...WITH OTHER
LOCATIONS REMAINING VFR.

WINDS: WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

LLWS: WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LLWS ISSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS 1-
1.5KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH VERY
MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THIS IS IN
THE 18-24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 021016 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
616 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
610AM UPDATE: SPED UP CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS WHICH SHOWS ACCAS OVER CENTRAL MAINE QUICKLY PULLING EAST.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO BRING NEAR TERM GRIDS IN
LINE WITH EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE DEALT WITH A LITTLE FOG AT LEB...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED AS OF THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW TAF CYCLE.
FOR THE DAY TODAY EXPECT SOME CU TO DEVELOP /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/...BUT REMAIN FEW-SCT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT HIE/LEB...WITH OTHER
LOCATIONS REMAINING VFR.

WINDS: WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

LLWS: WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LLWS ISSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS 1-
1.5KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH VERY
MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THIS IS IN
THE 18-24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KGYX 021016 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
616 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
610AM UPDATE: SPED UP CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS WHICH SHOWS ACCAS OVER CENTRAL MAINE QUICKLY PULLING EAST.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO BRING NEAR TERM GRIDS IN
LINE WITH EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE DEALT WITH A LITTLE FOG AT LEB...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED AS OF THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW TAF CYCLE.
FOR THE DAY TODAY EXPECT SOME CU TO DEVELOP /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/...BUT REMAIN FEW-SCT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT HIE/LEB...WITH OTHER
LOCATIONS REMAINING VFR.

WINDS: WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

LLWS: WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LLWS ISSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS 1-
1.5KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH VERY
MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THIS IS IN
THE 18-24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020734
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION
WITH SLIGHT DRYING OF THE LLEVEL AIRMASS TODAY.

CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AREAS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FROM GETTING TOO
OUT OF HAND THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT STILL FEEL SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AT HIE/LEB...AND EVENT RKD...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK THE FOG
JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.

EXPECT JUST A FEW CU ALONG WITH SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /GREATEST
COVERAGE FURTHEST NORTH/ FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS: LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY 5-10KTS THIS
MORNING...TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST /PARTICULARLY COASTAL SITES/ THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AGAIN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME VALLEY FOG AT HIE/LEB AGAIN
LIKELY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020734
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION
WITH SLIGHT DRYING OF THE LLEVEL AIRMASS TODAY.

CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AREAS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FROM GETTING TOO
OUT OF HAND THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT STILL FEEL SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AT HIE/LEB...AND EVENT RKD...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK THE FOG
JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.

EXPECT JUST A FEW CU ALONG WITH SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /GREATEST
COVERAGE FURTHEST NORTH/ FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS: LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY 5-10KTS THIS
MORNING...TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST /PARTICULARLY COASTAL SITES/ THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AGAIN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME VALLEY FOG AT HIE/LEB AGAIN
LIKELY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 020734
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND AT THE BEACHES. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLONIC
SWIRL THAT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE.  MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BEEN ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS...WITH
TODAY BEING A LULL PERIOD BETWEEN THESE STRONGER DISTURBANCES.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE /PWATS
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH/ ONGOING.  MID LEVEL FORCING IS IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING SIGN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AS OF 06Z CONTINUES TO
ROTATE EAST.  THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SHRAS...THAT
HAS FALLEN APART OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE/FORCING WANE.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AND
WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...DETERMINING WHETHER IT WILL BE
ABLE TO POP A FEW SHRAS TODAY DESPITE THE DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN NH/SW MAINE.

TODAY: TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY TO
START THE DAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE HEADING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE
REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IT IS AT THIS TIME WE/LL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THIS AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...REALLY DON/T EXPECT ALL THAT MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE. IT LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC
EARLY AUGUST DAY WITH T8S IN THE +10-13C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
SOUTHWEST MAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTENDS A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST AS HUDSON BAY LOW SETTLES SOUTH SOME INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS WILL HELP DRAW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION...WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE IMPLIED
INCREASED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS PRIMARY RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWARD SINKING MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THUS...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD LIES IN IDENTIFYING WHEN/WHERE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR /IE WHERE/S THE TRIGGER/ AND HOW ROBUST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE.

TONIGHT:  SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE.
INCREASING GRADIENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
COUPLED OVERNIGHT /OR RE-COUPLE AFTER GOING CALM FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING/ WITH THIS EFFECT LIKELY NOT ALLOWING FOG TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN PATCHY/ISOLATED DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT...EXPECT A WARMER NIGHT THAN
IS ONGOING ATTM...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY: POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE OF
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100+KT 1.5PVU
JET CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND RIDE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY...DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE
WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LATER IN THE DAY EVENT...WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
CAPPED IN THE MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THUS...WILL RESTRICT ANYTHING BUT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELIES HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT:  DEEP SHEAR IS AMPLE /0-6KM VALUES NEAR 40KTS/ WITH
MLCAPES REACHING THE 750-1250 J/KG RANGE WITH THE MODEST INFLUX OF
LLEVEL MOISTURE.  A GOOD BIT OF THE SHEAR OCCURS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER.
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR SW-NE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
FORCING BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT CELLS THAT CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
AS THEY TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST.  SO...CERTAINLY A WIND
THREAT...WITH DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THUS
SOME HAIL CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IF WE SEE
ACTIVITY DELAY MUCH MORE INTO THE EVENING THAT WANING INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT THIS PERIOD IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR
THE CWA.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE T8S TOWARDS +17-18C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

500 MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW INCURSION OF AIR FROM THE POLAR
JET TRAPPED IN CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL THEN WORK EWD INTO QUEBEC BY MID WEEK...WHERETHE
CLOSED LOW WILL HANG OUT FOR A FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE WITH COOLER
AIR...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A PEEK AHEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK IN.

MONDAY EVENING STARTS OFF STORMY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND 500 MB WAVE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS MON EVENING
PERHAPS WILL INTO MONDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS INSTABILITY. THIS
FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE SW FLOW AND STALLS THE SFC FRONT
OVER THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE WED-FRI...AND
PROXIMITY OF ASSOC COLD POOL...ESPECIALLY ON WED...WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE COOLER AIR
AND LOWER RH WITH TDS MAINLY IN THE 50S WED-FRI. SAT AND THE
WEEKEND ARE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS WAVE TRAVELING OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND TRIES TO DIG A
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW BECAUSE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MODEL SCALING ERRORS MAY BE
COMING INTO PLAY...SO ONLY GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
STILL WARM AND HUMID TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WEAKER S-SW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGHS WED-
FRI RANGING FORM 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS TO AROUND 80 IN
URBAN SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION
WITH SLIGHT DRYING OF THE LLEVEL AIRMASS TODAY.

CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AREAS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FROM GETTING TOO
OUT OF HAND THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT STILL FEEL SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AT HIE/LEB...AND EVENT RKD...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK THE FOG
JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.

EXPECT JUST A FEW CU ALONG WITH SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /GREATEST
COVERAGE FURTHEST NORTH/ FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS: LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY 5-10KTS THIS
MORNING...TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST /PARTICULARLY COASTAL SITES/ THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AGAIN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME VALLEY FOG AT HIE/LEB AGAIN
LIKELY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

LONG TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER CONDS TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAIN VFR TUE-THU...WITH THE
USUAL CAVEAT FOR VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB...AND WE ARE GETTING INTO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE IT BECOMES MORE FREQUENT AT KCON AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BLOW 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020519 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
119 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245AM UPDATE...
LAST SHOWER DYING OUT OVER CARROLL COUNTY NH...RIGHT ON SCHEDULE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OVERNIGHT TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION
WITH SLIGHT DRYING OF THE LLEVEL AIRMASS TODAY.

CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AREAS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FROM GETTING TOO
OUT OF HAND THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT STILL FEEL SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AT HIE/LEB...AND EVENT RKD...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK THE FOG
JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.

EXPECT JUST A FEW CU ALONG WITH SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /GREATEST
COVERAGE FURTHEST NORTH/ FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS: LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY 5-10KTS THIS
MORNING...TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST /PARTICULARLY COASTAL SITES/ THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AGAIN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020519 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
119 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245AM UPDATE...
LAST SHOWER DYING OUT OVER CARROLL COUNTY NH...RIGHT ON SCHEDULE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OVERNIGHT TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION
WITH SLIGHT DRYING OF THE LLEVEL AIRMASS TODAY.

CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AREAS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FROM GETTING TOO
OUT OF HAND THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT STILL FEEL SOME IFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AT HIE/LEB...AND EVENT RKD...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK THE FOG
JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.

EXPECT JUST A FEW CU ALONG WITH SCATTERED MID CLOUDS /GREATEST
COVERAGE FURTHEST NORTH/ FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS: LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY 5-10KTS THIS
MORNING...TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST /PARTICULARLY COASTAL SITES/ THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AGAIN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KGYX 020444 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245AM UPDATE...
LAST SHOWER DYING OUT OVER CARROLL COUNTY NH...RIGHT ON SCHEDULE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OVERNIGHT TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KGYX 020444 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245AM UPDATE...
LAST SHOWER DYING OUT OVER CARROLL COUNTY NH...RIGHT ON SCHEDULE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OVERNIGHT TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KGYX 020444 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245AM UPDATE...
LAST SHOWER DYING OUT OVER CARROLL COUNTY NH...RIGHT ON SCHEDULE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES
BASED ON OVERNIGHT TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 020040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 020040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT
DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR ANY CELLS WHICH MIGHT SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO NORTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TEMP AND TD TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 011905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 011300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MESO MODEL
TRENDS. SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. DEW POINTS REMAIN NEAR 60
DEGREES...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN A COUPLE DAYS AGO.  WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WHERE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING.  OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 011300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MESO MODEL
TRENDS. SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. DEW POINTS REMAIN NEAR 60
DEGREES...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN A COUPLE DAYS AGO.  WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WHERE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING.  OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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