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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301513
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1113 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled to our south will return north as a warm front
today. This front will be preceded by showers and a few
thunderstorms through Monday morning. A warm humid air mass will
follow the warm front on Monday afternoon with another round of
showers and thunderstorms expected. Tropical moisture from the
remnants of Bonnie will be entrained in the frontal system and
could produce heavy rainfall and localized drainage flooding on
Memorial day. Two cold fronts will cross the area Monday and
Tuesday night with high pressure to follow Wednesday and
Thursday. An upper level trough could produce some rain towards
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1110 am Update...Have updated pops and temperatures based on
latest trends. Any steady light rain will be gone soon and the sun
will start to come out resulting in warming temperatures. Widely
sct storms may develop late this afternoon across the interior
with attendant threat of gusty winds and small hail. Latest
guidance suggests the best chance of storms today will be over
southernmost NH and perhaps the western ME mountains. Overall it
is not looking widespread.

845 am Update...Have updated the forecast a bit mainly for pops
over the next several hours based on latest trends in radar data
as well as mesoscale model data. Last band of steadier light rain
currently centered across southern NH will move across
southernmost maine in the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise, mostly dry
until widely sct showers and storms develop this afternoon.

Previously...

5 am ... just a quick adjustment to the PoP as radar shows rain
moving into New Hampshire a bit faster.

At 3 am... an area of rain was crossing Vermont and Southern New
England into southwest New Hampshire. This rain will continue to
move northeastwards crossing the southern portion of the forecast
area early this morning. The rain is being driven by two factors. To
the south, the remnants of Tropical Depression Bonnie is streaming
moist tropical air northward on the west side of a Bermuda high.
Satellite shows PWAT values as high as 2 in in this air mass with
values around 1.5 inches across much of New England. To the west a
short wave trough is moving out of the Great Lakes into western New
York. These two systems are creating a squeeze pushing the moisture
northwards up the coast. While PWAT is high... the area of rain is
now mainly stratiform forced by the synoptic squish and thus the
concern of heavy rainfall has abated as the rain continues to move.
The early morning timing will also keep any convective threat to a
minimum.

Today will be a bit of a paradox as rain creates sun which in turn
creates rain again. Ahead of the early morning rain the marine
layer is well entrenched along the coast with widespread drizzle
and fog. The morning rain will serve to move the marine layer out
allowing sun to break out from west to east across the region this
afternoon. The sun will subsequently destabilize the
region...allowing a line of thunderstorms to form along the front
which will cross the area late today. The thunderstorms will form
around mid afternoon as temperatures rise to near 80 in interior
New Hampshire and the CT river valley. CAPE values of up to 1000
J/kg combined with an 80kt jet streak overhead will generate
sufficient shear for a few severe thunderstorms to develop with
damaging winds and small hail being the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Overnight skies will clear and showers and thunderstorms will die
off as the front moves out of the area. Residual moisture will
allow patchy fog to form...especially in favored valley locations.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny with just a slight chance of upslope
showers in the afternoon in the mountains along the Canadian
border. Light northwesterly flow in the wake of the front will be
enough to keep the sea breeze at bay allowing temperatures to
climb into the 80s for all but the immediate coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather will continue into the midweek as high pressure
gradually builds in behind the departing front. Weak northerly
flow will veer to the east by Wednesday afternoon bringing in a
sea breeze. Temperatures should reach the 70s however with inland
areas a few degrees warmer than the coast.

Onshore flow strengthens Thursday with perhaps some drizzle...
stratus... and fog allowing readings to only reach the 60s for
much of the area. The remnants of the very weak TD Bonnie will
move off the Carolinas Thursday night allowing a baroclinic zone
to shift towards the eastern seaboard. This will introduce some
heavier showers for Friday into the weekend with highs once again
in the 60s and 70s. During this time overnight lows will be in the
40s and 50s...or in a word...normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions will improve to VFR across the area by
18Z. This afternoon scattered thunderstorms and showers may impact
HIE LEB CON and MHT. Tonight expect valley fog for LEB and to a
lesser extent HIE CON. All areas will be VFR for Tuesday.

Long Term...VFR for Wednesday. Some MVFR along the coast Thursday
in drizzle...stratus...and fog. -SHRA Thursday evening into Friday
for all terminals bringing ceilings and visibilities down to MVFR
and/or IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term... Fog may lift somewhat mid afternoon before
returning overnight. Winds and seas will remain below small craft.

Long Term...Generally poor boating conditions from Thursday
through the weekend in fog and drizzle as well as showers. Winds
and seas will remain below small craft criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will remain light through the next few days with cooler
temperatures and precipitation in the forecast the next two days.
This will help keep fire danger in check.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Hanes





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301246
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
846 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled to our south will return north as a warm front
today. This front will be preceded by showers and a few
thunderstorms through Monday morning. A warm humid air mass will
follow the warm front on Monday afternoon with another round of
showers and thunderstorms expected. Tropical moisture from the
remnants of Bonnie will be entrained in the frontal system and
could produce heavy rainfall and localized drainage flooding on
Memorial day. Two cold fronts will cross the area Monday and
Tuesday night with high pressure to follow Wednesday and
Thursday. An upper level trough could produce some rain towards
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 am Update...Have updated the forecast a bit mainly for pops
over the next several hours based on latest trends in radar data
as well as mesoscale model data. Last band of steadier light rain
currently centered across southern NH will move across
southernmost maine in the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise, mostly dry
until widely sct showers and storms develop this afternoon.

Previously...

5 am ... just a quick adjustment to the PoP as radar shows rain
moving into New Hampshire a bit faster.

At 3 am... an area of rain was crossing Vermont and Southern New
England into southwest New Hampshire. This rain will continue to
move northeastwards crossing the southern portion of the forecast
area early this morning. The rain is being driven by two factors. To
the south, the remnants of Tropical Depression Bonnie is streaming
moist tropical air northward on the west side of a Bermuda high.
Satellite shows PWAT values as high as 2 in in this air mass with
values around 1.5 inches across much of New England. To the west a
short wave trough is moving out of the Great Lakes into western New
York. These two systems are creating a squeeze pushing the moisture
northwards up the coast. While PWAT is high... the area of rain is
now mainly stratiform forced by the synoptic squish and thus the
concern of heavy rainfall has abated as the rain continues to move.
The early morning timing will also keep any convective threat to a
minimum.

Today will be a bit of a paradox as rain creates sun which in turn
creates rain again. Ahead of the early morning rain the marine
layer is well entrenched along the coast with widespread drizzle
and fog. The morning rain will serve to move the marine layer out
allowing sun to break out from west to east across the region this
afternoon. The sun will subsequently destabilize the
region...allowing a line of thunderstorms to form along the front
which will cross the area late today. The thunderstorms will form
around mid afternoon as temperatures rise to near 80 in interior
New Hampshire and the CT river valley. CAPE values of up to 1000
J/kg combined with an 80kt jet streak overhead will generate
sufficient shear for a few severe thunderstorms to develop with
damaging winds and small hail being the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Overnight skies will clear and showers and thunderstorms will die
off as the front moves out of the area. Residual moisture will
allow patchy fog to form...especially in favored valley locations.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny with just a slight chance of upslope
showers in the afternoon in the mountains along the Canadian
border. Light northwesterly flow in the wake of the front will be
enough to keep the sea breeze at bay allowing temperatures to
climb into the 80s for all but the immediate coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather will continue into the midweek as high pressure
gradually builds in behind the departing front. Weak northerly
flow will veer to the east by Wednesday afternoon bringing in a
sea breeze. Temperatures should reach the 70s however with inland
areas a few degrees warmer than the coast.

Onshore flow strengthens Thursday with perhaps some drizzle...
stratus... and fog allowing readings to only reach the 60s for
much of the area. The remnants of the very weak TD Bonnie will
move off the Carolinas Thursday night allowing a baroclinic zone
to shift towards the eastern seaboard. This will introduce some
heavier showers for Friday into the weekend with highs once again
in the 60s and 70s. During this time overnight lows will be in the
40s and 50s...or in a word...normal.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...widespread LIFR conditions will continue for the next
several hours. Rain moving in from the Southwest will increase
visibilities at MHT CON and PSM by 14Z and at Portland by around
16Z. Conditions will improve to VFR across the area by 18Z. This
afternoon scattered thunderstorms and showers may impact HIE LEB
and AUG. Monday night expect valley fog for LEB and to a lesser
extent HIE CON. All areas will be VFR for Tuesday.

Long Term...VFR for Wednesday. Some MVFR along the coast Thursday
in drizzle...stratus...and fog. -SHRA Thursday evening into Friday
for all terminals bringing ceilings and visibilities down to MVFR
and/or IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term... Rain and fog for this morning. Fog may lift somewhat
mid afternoon before returning overnight. Winds and seas will
remain below small craft.

Long Term...Generally poor boating conditions from Thursday
through the weekend in fog and drizzle as well as showers. Winds
and seas will remain below small craft criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will remain light through the next few days with cooler
temperatures and precipitation in the forecast the next two days.
This will help keep fire danger in check.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Hanes





000
FXUS61 KGYX 292353
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
753 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled to our south will return north as a warm front
early Monday. This front will be preceded by showers and a few
thunderstorms through Monday morning. A warm humid air mass will
follow the warm front on Monday afternoon with another round of
showers and thunderstorms expected. Tropical moisture from the
remnants of Bonnie will be entrained in the frontal system and
could produce heavy rainfall and localized drainage flooding on
Memorial day. Two cold fronts will cross the area Monday and
Tuesday night with high pressure and drier air to follow Wednesday
and Thursday. An upper level trough could produce some rain FRiday
or Saturday.

&&
23z update...
Showers and a few thunderstorms currently edging into the
Connecticut Valley early this evening and showers continue in far
northern new hampshire and far northern Maine zones. Showers
having a tough time getting into southwest New Hampshire where
marine layer is well entrenched but a few sprinkles will be
possible in this area through midnight. Remainder of the forecast
area generally covered in lowering ocean stratus in southern and
eastern New Hampshire and much of southern and central Maine.
Expect more organized showers and some thunderstorms to move east
through the region ahead of a pre-frontal trough toward daybreak.
Have adjusted temp/td/sky/pop and wx grids to reflect current
trends and surface obs. No other changes planned attm.

&&

Previous discussion...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
At 18z a 1005 millibar low was centered over the upper Great
Lakes with a warm/stationary front extending southeast through
southern New England. To the north of this frontal boundary...
easterly flow persisted with extensive low cloud found across the
forecast area. With the exception of the upper Connecticut valley...GOES
visible imagery showed broken to overcast conditions across the
forecast area. NWS doppler radar mosaic showed a broken area of
convection along and to the north of the 850 millibar warm front
with activity impacting northern and mountain sections at moment.
Additional activity over western New England could reach the
Connecticut valley this evening. For tonight...the stalled front
begins to push northward...but it won`t clear most of our northern
and eastern forecast area until tomorrow afternoon as southwest
flow in the low levels increases towards dawn. Convection will
gradually increase in coverage overnight as overrunning increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As mentioned above...the warm front will work north and east
across much of Maine and extreme Northern New hampshire on Monday
morning leaving the entire forecast area in the warm sector by
monday afternoon. Monday morning will feature an area of showers
and thunderstorms that will push north and east and taper to
scattered showers and thunderstorms following the warm frontal
passage. we`ll warm into the 70s...with the exception of midcoast
Maine because of the onshore trajectory...and it`ll be a humid day
with dewpoints rising into the 60s. We should see sufficient
heating from the Connecticut valley northward through the Maine
mountains and foothills for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
developing during the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible as tropical moisture from the remnants
of Bonnie will be entrained into the frontal system. A few of the
stronger cells could also produce gusty winds. Any lingering
convection will end by late Monday evening as the cold front
sweeps offshore. Low level moisture and clearing skies should
result in areas of fog Monday night behind the departing frontal
system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
high impact wx: none expected.

Models continue to trend toward a more zonal jet that will reside
just n of the US/Canada border. Will see one low wave exiting at
the start of the long range, and another moving in at the end of
the week, with ridging in between. Although 850 mb temps will
generally be above normal, a lack of decent low level flow will
allow onshore flow to develop, and keep sfc temps closer to
normal, or even below normal, along the coast.

The warmest day will be Tuesday, as will have to wait for upper
level trough to drag the secondary cold front through the CWA,
which will lower humidity and cool things down a bit. Still, highs
on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Might see a few
showers or storms across the far nrn zones...but weak dynamics and
lack of instability should prevent much else from happening with
the fropa.

Wednesday and Thursday should be fair. Both days will feature a
sea breeze, but Thursday will see the marine lyr move further
inland as there will be an onshore pres gradient. Highs Wed will
be from 70-80, and on Thursday mid 60s on the coast to mid-upper
70s further inland. Overnight lows Wed and Thu night will be in
the mid 40s to mid 50s, fairly close to normal.

500 mb trough approaches from the west Friday and moves into New
England on Sat. Models are lingering remnant tropical system off
the Carolina coast through most of the week before it gets picked
up by that trough. A lot of what happens with the front will
depend on that, and confidence is low in this regard. Have chancepops
in the forecast for Fri and Fri night, but just kept slight for
Sat, which leans toward the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through 12z Tuesday/...MVFR and LCL ifr tonight in
ceilings and fog along with sct -shra/ and isold -tsra. On
Mon...conds improve to vfr throughout btw 12 and 16z following a
warm frontal passage with areas of mvfr btw 18z and 02z Tue in
shra/tsra. Areas of MVFR and lcl IFR aft 06z Tue in valley stratus
and fog.

Long Term...Mainly VFR, with the exception of possible vly fog
Wed and Thu night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday night/...winds and seas expected to
remain below SCA threshold. However...there will be periodic vsby
restrictions in fog, haze, and thunderstorms through Monday
evening.

Long Term...May see some winds approach SCA Tuesday afternoon, but
otherwise, fairly quiet on the waters through the rest of the
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool...onshore flow will dominate most of the area into tonight.
Relative humidity values will remain moderate to high region-wide.
On Mon tropical moisture associated with Bonnie will stream into
the area. Showers are likely...with some possibly heavy at times.
A wetting rain looks most likely across southern areas.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291351
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
951 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
While Saturday may have felt like the dog days of summer...today
will feel distinctly spring-like behind a southwest moving cold
front. Temperatures are going to struggle to climb much higher
than morning readings for much of the area. The best chance for a
nicer day will be areas well inland...like the Connecticut River
Valley. Tonight moisture associated with Bonnie begins to stream
north...and the chances for rain will increase with it. Rain may
even be heavy at times into Memorial Day...especially across
southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...at 13z a 1008 millibar low was centered over the upper
Great Lakes with a warm/stationary front extending southeast
through southern New England. To the north of this frontal
boundary... easterly flow and marine layer with extensive low
cloud was found across the forecast area. With the exception of
the upper Connecticut valley...GOES visible imagery should broken
to overcast conditions across the forecast area. NWS doppler radar
mosaic showed a broken area of convection along and to the north
of the 850 millibar warm front and some of this activity will
impact northern and mountain sections later this morning and
during the afternoon hours today. I made adjustments to near term
grids to reflect satellite and radar trends as well as the current
mesonet.

PREV DISC...
Update...Only real change from the previous forecast was to
increase PoP over central Somerset County to account for current
shower activity. Showers ongoing N of the mid level warm front due
to WAA are closer to the forecast area than previously thought and
the Jackman area will see likely PoP thru mid morning.

Previous discussion...What a difference a day makes. High pres
building into the Maritimes has pushed a cold front back to the SW
across New England. Behind it stratus and patchy fog continues to
spread across the forecast area. The result will be temps some 20
or more degrees colder than yesterday. The air mass to our W
remains quite warm...and winds aloft remain SWly to Wly advecting
that over the top of the low level marine layer. This will
strengthen our inversion today...and make it all the more
difficult to break thru. High temps across much of the area will
be near current readings if stratus can fill in all the way.
Farther W across the CT River Valley may escape the marine
influence...and temps should be able to climb well into the 70s.
Along this differential heating boundary however a few showers or
storms may be possible this afternoon. Again with the lack of a
strong upper level forcing mechanism...any convection will be
widely scattered.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight attention turns towards Bonnie. WV satellite imagery
already shows moisture from her streaming into parts of Wrn PA and
NY. This will continue into New England...first with an increase
in clouds...followed by an increase in precip chances. Model
forecasts depict PWAT values climbing to near 2 inches by early
Mon. Those high PWATs coupled with light steering flow will create
a recipe for heavy rnfl. However the threat looks more localized
than widespread at this time...so I will be holding off on any
sort of flood watch headline. ECWMF EPS favors that threat holding
off until Mon...and mainly for Srn zones at that. This is
supported by the SREF as well. Looking at individual EPS members
shows that only a handful drop heavy rnfl over parts of the
forecast area...with the rest mainly light to moderate QPF
amounts. All the more reason to keep heavy rnfl wording localized
at this point.

Another thing to keep an eye on will be if trends continue to keep
most of the precip across Srn areas Mon. Thru the mtns could clear
out and heat a fairly moist air mass. A strong jet streak is
forecast move over the region during the afternoon. This could
provide the forcing for ascent and shear necessary for a few
organized storms. Have added gusty wind wording to the mtn zones
for the afternoon...trying to keep it close the SPC marginal risk
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the
forecast area for the week. The high strengthens through Thursday
and then shifts eastward allowing a 500mb short wave to push
towards our region at the end of the week. The high remains in
place and the shortwave will rotate to our north through Quebec.

A generally warm and sunny week is in store for Northern New
England. On Tuesday highs will get into the 80s as temperatures
climb to +11C at 850mb. Northwesterly flow in the wake of Monday
nights frontal passage will keep the sea breeze at bay allowing
the warmth to extend for all but the immediate coastline.

On wednesday the temps aloft cool slightly as the high crests
overhead. The weak pressure gradient will allow for a sea breeze to
push well inland in the afternoon. With water temperatures still
in the 50s this will keep temperatures down in the low 70s for all
of the coastal plain of Maine and Rockingham county NH. Further
inland Keene and the CT river valley will soar to the 80s under
sunny skies.

Thursday will remain sunny as dry conditions continue under the
surface high. Aloft a wedge of colder air pushes southwestwards
out of the Canadian maritimes. 850mb temps drop to +5C with
surface high temperatures dropping back into the 70s region wide.

Friday the ridge starts to break down as a trough moves into the
great lakes. A cold front moves through touching off showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Marine fog and stratus continues to develop this
morning behind backdoor cold front. Hi-res model guidance has had
a good handle on trends this morning...with development over Srn
NH first...and expanding NEwd from there. Coastal terminals will
see IFR CIGS this morning...lifting but remaining MVFR today. Will
have to keep an eye on SHRA/TSRA this afternoon on the periphery
of the cloud deck...but confidence is too low to include in any
TAFs at this time. Clouds are then expected to increase everywhere
tonight...as moisture from Bonnie begins to lift Nwd. Heavy rnfl
is possible across Srn NH and coastal ME Mon...with IFR or lower
conditions in the heavy precip.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected through the week under high
pressure. Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Initial surge from backdoor cold front will bring a
few gusts near 25 kts this morning. Otherwise winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Some patchy fog will also
be possible on the outer waters today.

Long Term... High pressure will keep wind and waves calm through
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool...onshore flow will dominate most of the area today. Relative
humidity values will remain moderate to high region-wide. On Mon
tropical moisture associated with Bonnie will stream into the
area. Showers are likely...with some possibly heavy at times. A
wetting rain looks most likely across southern areas.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Schwibs





000
FXUS61 KGYX 282330
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
730 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push westward across Maine and New Hampshire
tonight as high pressure builds into New Brunswick and Nova
Scotia. An easterly onshore wind will bring much cooler
temperatures on Sunday, although to the west of the mountains it
will be hot and humid again. Warm, moist air moves into the area
again on Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected. A cold
front moves through from the northwest late Tuesday with high
pressure building behind it through late week.

&&

23z update...
Quick update to adjust temps/tds/sky grids based on current
observations. With the loss of heating will also be removing
mention of thunderstorms in the forecast. Have only seen some
widely scattered shower activity across mainly southern areas and
expect this to die out over the next few hours. Still looking for
ocean stratus and areas of fog to develop across the region after
midnight. No other changes planned attm.


Previous discussion...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Any afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop will diminish
this evening. Winds will shift to the east northeast as high
pressure moves into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and a back door
cold front moves westward across the region. This will bring a
cool, maritime air mass into the low levels this evening. Water
temperatures are in the low to mid 50s and air temperatures within
this air mass will not be much warmer than that. Should see some
low level cloudiness develop as that cold air wedges itself in
below the warm/moist air above it. By morning there could be some
fog and drizzle as well, especially over southwest Maine and
eastern New Hampshire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Onshore easterly flow will keep cool air wedged in at the surface
across Maine and eastern New Hampshire on Sunday. Near the coast
temperatures may not get out of the upper 50s to low 60s, while
inland areas could rise a little warmer. This cold air will not
make it all the way across the mountains, though, so western New
Hampshire will see another hot and humid day with temperatures in
the 80s. Afternoon showers and storms are more likely to pop up
across New York, Vermont, and western Massachusetts but there
could be a stay shower or storm move through western New
Hampshire.

Remnant showers and thunderstorms associated with a shortwave
trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes will eventually
make their way into New Hampshire and western Maine Sunday night.
This activity should be diminishing as it moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High impact wx: there is a small chance that heavy downpourslate
Sunday night into Monday morning could produce localized flooding.

The hemispheric 500 mb pattern will continue to feature a western
Atlantic ridge, although it will not reach as far poleward as it
is this weekend. After one short wave moves through Monday, will
see a few more during the course of the week, but none of them
are strong enough to break down the ridging, but just temporarily
dampen it. Overall, 850 mb temps through the period will be above
normal, but bouts of onshore flow will help keep sfc temps in the
normal to above range, and not expecting anything quite as warm
as this weekend.

Monday starts off fairly murky and rainy, with fog and shra like
in the morning, as marine layer undercuts the warm air loft. Also
as weak 500 mb trough approaches from the west will see showers
out ahead of the front, with some tropical moisture from TD 2
being drawn northward. Could see a few heavier showers and some
thunderstorms, especially Monday morning. Also RH will be on the
rise during the day as well. May see some brief clearing late in
the warm sector, but a frontal boundary will approach from the
west and could spark off a few sct thunderstorms...especially in
the mountains late. Despite a fair amount of clouds highs Monday
will manage to get into the mid to upper 70s in inland areas, and
to around 70 on the coast. The front moves thru Mon night and
skies will clear but air mass not much different behind it and
will have to wait for second 500mb wave to pull another cold front
thru late Tuesday, but without much in the way of showers, which
would be limited to the mountains. Highs Tuesday will generally be
in the low to mid 80s inland, and mid-upper 70s on the coast.

Sfc high then builds in from north Wed beneath decent ridging
aloft on Wed, and then shifts off to the northeast on Thu. Both
days look fair although Wed will be warmer as flow will be from
the west with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. The onshore flow
will keep the coast close to 70 on Thu, but will warm into the
mid 70s inland. Next chc of rain will be Fri or Saturday as cold
front approaches from the west. GFS/Euro seem to be struggling
with TD 2 during the mid-late week as they keep it lingering near
the Carolinas until late week, and then start to move it E-NE.
This could affect the timing of our rain chances late in the week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions to start off the night, but an onshore
flow should lead to low clouds developing again tonight along the
coast. Expect IFR conditions from Portsmouth to Rockland, but VFR
should continue for western New Hampshire except for a brief
period of possible valley fog at Lebanon. Low clouds will likely
linger through much of the day Sunday along the coast while
western New Hampshire will be VFR with an outside chance of a
shower or thunderstorm in the evening.

Long Term...IFR or lower Monday morning will improve to VFR from
SW to NE Monday afternoon. After which, VFR is expected through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Easterly flow develops over the waters tonight
behind a back door front. Winds should remain below advisory
levels. Wave heights will be building in the western Gulf of Maine
on that easterly fetch, but at this time are forecast to stay
below 5 feet.

Long Term...Monday will see a surge in SW flow ahead of a cold
front, and may need SCA Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Otherwise, the rest of the week should remain blow SCA levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect cool and moist onshore flow Sunday. It will warm up Monday
and Tuesday but will still be fairly moist. Although showers and
thunderstorms are possible several days during the coming week,
widespread significant rainfall is not expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Cempa
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281931
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push westward across Maine and New Hampshire
tonight as high pressure builds into New Brunswick and Nova
Scotia. An easterly onshore wind will bring much cooler
temperatures on Sunday, although to the west of the mountains it
will be hot and humid again. Warm, moist air moves into the area
again on Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected. A cold
front moves through from the northwest late Tuesday with high
pressure building behind it through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Any afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop will diminish
this evening. Winds will shift to the east northeast as high
pressure moves into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and a back door
cold front moves westward across the region. This will bring a
cool, maritime air mass into the low levels this evening. Water
temperatures are in the low to mid 50s and air temperatures within
this air mass will not be much warmer than that. Should see some
low level cloudiness develop as that cold air wedges itself in
below the warm/moist air above it. By morning there could be some
fog and drizzle as well, especially over southwest Maine and
eastern New Hampshire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Onshore easterly flow will keep cool air wedged in at the surface
across Maine and eastern New Hampshire on Sunday. Near the coast
temperatures may not get out of the upper 50s to low 60s, while
inland areas could rise a little warmer. This cold air will not
make it all the way across the mountains, though, so western New
Hampshire will see another hot and humid day with temperatures in
the 80s. Afternoon showers and storms are more likely to pop up
across New York, Vermont, and western Massachusetts but there
could be a stay shower or storm move through western New
Hampshire.

Remnant showers and thunderstorms associated with a shortwave
trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes will eventually
make their way into New Hampshire and western Maine Sunday night.
This activity should be diminishing as it moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High impact wx: there is a small chance that heavy downpourslate
Sunday night into Monday morning could produce localized flooding.

The hemispheric 500 mb pattern will continue to feature a western
Atlantic ridge, although it will not reach as far poleward as it
is this weekend. After one short wave moves through Monday, will
see a few more during the course of the week, but none of them
are strong enough to break down the ridging, but just temporarily
dampen it. Overall, 850 mb temps through the period will be above
normal, but bouts of onshore flow will help keep sfc temps in the
normal to above range, and not expecting anything quite as warm
as this weekend.

Monday starts off fairly murky and rainy, with fog and shra like
in the morning, as marine layer undercuts the warm air loft. Also
as weak 500 mb trough approaches from the west will see showers
out ahead of the front, with some tropical moisture from TD 2
being drawn northward. Could see a few heavier showers and some
thunderstorms, especially Monday morning. Also RH will be on the
rise during the day as well. May see some brief clearing late in
the warm sector, but a frontal boundary will approach from the
west and could spark off a few sct thunderstorms...especially in
the mountains late. Despite a fair amount of clouds highs Monday
will manage to get into the mid to upper 70s in inland areas, and
to around 70 on the coast. The front moves thru Mon night and
skies will clear but air mass not much different behind it and
will have to wait for second 500mb wave to pull another cold front
thru late Tuesday, but without much in the way of showers, which
would be limited to the mountains. Highs Tuesday will generally be
in the low to mid 80s inland, and mid-upper 70s on the coast.

Sfc high then builds in from north Wed beneath decent ridging
aloft on Wed, and then shifts off to the northeast on Thu. Both
days look fair although Wed will be warmer as flow will be from
the west with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. The onshore flow
will keep the coast close to 70 on Thu, but will warm into the
mid 70s inland. Next chc of rain will be Fri or Saturday as cold
front approaches from the west. GFS/Euro seem to be struggling
with TD 2 during the mid-late week as they keep it lingering near
the Carolinas until late week, and then start to move it E-NE.
This could affect the timing of our rain chances late in the week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions to start off the night, but an onshore
flow should lead to low clouds developing again tonight along the
coast. Expect IFR conditions from Portsmouth to Rockland, but VFR
should continue for western New Hampshire except for a brief
period of possible valley fog at Lebanon. Low clouds will likely
linger through much of the day Sunday along the coast while
western New Hampshire will be VFR with an outside chance of a
shower or thunderstorm in the evening.

Long Term...IFR or lower Monday morning will improve to VFR from
SW to NE Monday afternoon. After which, VFR is expected through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Easterly flow develops over the waters tonight
behind a back door front. Winds should remain below advisory
levels. Wave heights will be building in the western Gulf of Maine
on that easterly fetch, but at this time are forecast to stay
below 5 feet.

Long Term...Monday will see a surge in SW flow ahead of a cold
front, and may need SCA Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Otherwise, the rest of the week should remain blow SCA levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect cool and moist onshore flow Sunday. It will warm up Monday
and Tuesday but will still be fairly moist. Although showers and
thunderstorms are possible several days during the coming week,
widespread significant rainfall is not expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


LONG TERM...Cempa





000
FXUS61 KGYX 272302
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
702 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer air will continue moving into the region through the first
part of the weekend...with the hottest temperatures expected for
Saturday. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms may pop up in
the afternoon. A cold front will push in from the northeast
Saturday night...and likely stall near the Connecticut valley and
southwest New Hampshire on Sunday...with onshore flow and cooler
temperatures across Maine and part of New Hampshire. Another front
approaches from the west Monday and makes for a mainly cloudy and
humid day with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will move in for the remainder of the week yielding dry and
seasonable weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
645 pm update: Visible satellite loops through the afternoon showed
widespread fog just offshore and along the immediate coastal areas
of the midcoast moving slowly west. With no mention of fog in
forecast...have made a significant update to forecast to include
this widespread fog over the waters and the coastal and inland
midcoast areas tonight as well as spreading the fog west into
southwest coastal Maine by late this evening. the question for the
remainder of the night will be how far inland the stratus and fog
move. temperatures were adjusted based on latest obs.

previous discussion:
Clouds have finally burned off over much of the coastal plain,
but visible satellite imagery shows clouds lingering just
offshore. The diurnal seabreeze circulation will push these
clouds onshore over the next few hours. Meanwhile a warm and
moist air mass to the west of the mountains continues to bubble
up with cumulus clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms over
New York, Vermont, and far western New Hampshire. This activity
may affect parts of southern and western New Hampshire at some
point this evening but it is not expected to be widespread.
Temperatures should drop into the 60s across most of New
Hampshire tonight, while 50s will be common across Maine where
the cooler maritime air will be felt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure moving toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will
send a frontal boundary through New Hampshire and Maine on
Saturday. Ahead of the front, winds will be out of the
west/northwest. This will allow the building heat and humidity to
our west to spill into the rest of New Hampshire and much of
western Maine. There is a fair amount of difference between the
NAM/GFS on low level temperatures tomorrow with the NAM about 3C
warmer than the GFS. As a result, the MOS numbers are pretty far
apart with the MET going for a high of 97 at Concord while the
MAV says only 88. Tend to favor the NAM in this case as it seems
to have a better handle on this air mass so far. Record high at
Concord is 94 and this appears to be in jeopardy. Dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s will allow heat index values to rise to 95 degrees
or higher in parts of southern/urban New Hampshire. Further to the
east along the coast a sea breeze will keep things a little
cooler. With the synoptic winds expected tomorrow, the sea breeze
will be most likely east of Portland.

With the heat and humidity building, there is some indication that
afternoon instability will be enough to generate showers and
thunderstorms. NAM is more aggressive with this, indicating CAPE
values above 1200 while the GFS is generally less than half that.
There is no obvious forcing mechanism for thunderstorms Saturday,
but the terrain and frontal boundary/sea breeze may be enough to
force some storms to fire during the afternoon. This activity
should diminish during the evening.

The cold front finishes its push southward and then westward
across the area Saturday night. A cool/moist onshore flow will be
in place across the area and cannot rule out some low clouds and
drizzle particularly over southeast New Hampshire and southwest
Maine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High impact weather: A few thunderstorms late Sunday night and
Monday could produce torrential downpours, and there is a low
risk for flash flooding.

The overall 500 mb pattern starts out summer-like, with strong
western Atlantic ridging in place. Although the ridge starts off
extending poleward to Newfoundland, several waves in the flow do
knock the ridge gradually back toward the equator. The temps will
moderate somewhat but will remain near to above normal thru next
week. A chance for showers come mid-late week as a cold front
moves thru, but there is no sign for any significant rainfall in
the extended forecast.

Sunday will start cool with onshore flow persisting behind the
back door front. Sunday looks to be mainly dry, but could be
fairly cloudy with the onshore flow, although some decent drying
above the marine layer could lead to some breaks of sunshine thru
the day. The best chance for showers or thunderstorms will be in
the north and western zones where the frontal boundary will be
sitting on sunday. In fact, CT valley region will likely be on the
warm and humid side, while elsewhere temps remain cooler, mainly
in the low-mid 60s coast to mid 70s in inland areas on the coastal
plain and the foothills.

Sunday night will see the marine layer start to erode a bit as
warmer pushes in aloft. Clouds will roll in and the threat of
showers will increase overnight...as will the humidity from SW to
NE. A cold front approaches from the west on Monday, and this will
set off showers and storms again in the warm moist air ahead of
the front. Even along the coast where marine layer will hold on,
should be enough elevated instability that we cannot rule out a
thunderstorm here on Monday. The big question is how much, if any,
moisture gets picked up from current fledgling tropical system in
the Atlantic. Models are in fair agreement that the system moves
west too the Carolina coast by Saturday night, but models vary
after that. Still could see some of that tropical air mass get
shunted northward ahead of the cold front and bring some heavy
rain in convective cells late Sunday into Monday, but confidence
remains low at this time.

Air mass behind the so-called cold front that passes Monday night
will remain warm and humid and will need to wait for second surge
of cooler air late Tue and Tue night. So Tue will be on the warm
and somewhat humid side, although with a fair amount of sun. This
secondary cold front moves thru with little fanfare...and may
produce a few scattered showers in the mountains on Tuesday. After
that temps drop back to near to a little above normal thru the
end of the week before another cold front approaches on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions start out VFR this afternoon for most
areas, though some low clouds are lurking just offshore. These
clouds will likely surge into coastal areas over the next few
hours, particularly from Portland eastward. This could bring
conditions to IFR or LIFR. Winds become southwesterly by morning
which should shift the focus for IFR clouds to eastern parts of
the area. This should burn off by mid morning with all areas
becoming VFR Saturday. Afternoon showers and storms are possible
especially over southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine though
the likelihood of affecting any particular TAF site is too low to
mention at this point.

Long Term...Sunday will start with some IFR, but will see some
improvement to MVFR or VFR during the day. A return to IFR
expected Sunday night lingering into Monday, with scattered
thunderstorms on Monday. VFR returns for Tue/Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Southwesterly winds become northerly then
northeasterly behind a cold front Saturday evening. High pressure
slides east into the Atlantic on Sunday with winds becoming
southeasterly. Winds through the period should stay below 25 KT
with wave heights fairly low as well.

Long Term...Winds seas will remain blow SCA conditions Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions are expected Saturday. A cold front
brings cooler weather Sunday with a moist onshore flow over Maine
and eastern New Hampshire. Although showers and storms will be
possible Saturday and again early next week, no widespread
significant rainfall is forecast.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$






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