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000
FXUS61 KGYX 241155 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241155 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241154 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241154 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7
AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER
AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE
WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240830
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240830
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
NEARS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ARCS
INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NH
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
PRECEDENT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW. THE WAA/CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAISE READINGS A
COUPLE DEGREES AT LEAST AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION... SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. VERY STRONG LLJ NOSES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
70 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WE DON`T MIX MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND ONLY
A SMALL INVERSION WILL BE WHAT KEEPS US FROM REALIZING VERY STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. STEADY RAIN GIVES
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240218
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL A LITTLE
BIT...BASICALLY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD GET
INTO THE CONCORD NH AREA AROUND 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR...THEN
ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THERE AND GETTING INTO PORTLAND BY 5 OR 6
AM.

630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240218
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL A LITTLE
BIT...BASICALLY AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD GET
INTO THE CONCORD NH AREA AROUND 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR...THEN
ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THERE AND GETTING INTO PORTLAND BY 5 OR 6
AM.

630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232330 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 3 AM OR SO.

PREVIOUSLY...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232041
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WENT WELL INTO 50S
TODAY, AND TDS CLIMBED TO AROUND 40 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE MINS IN THESE AREAS WELL ABV FREEZING
OVERNIGHT AS WAA RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
THE THE N AND W MANY AREAS ARE INTO THE 40S WITH TDS IN THE UPPER
30S...SO MOST PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL START AS RAIN ALSO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
RADIATE...THEY COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE START...GENERALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MINS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TO RISE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS AS WARMER TEMPS MIX DOWN. A STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND END FROM SW TO
NE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ERN ZONES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SOME SCT SHRA. QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE
AREAS...EXPECTING WARM SECTOR TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUN. EVEN WITHOUT
THE SUN...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SRN
ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. NERN ZONES WILL STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO AROUND 50.

500 MB LOW WELL TO OUR NW SLOWS ANDS DEEPENS LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT...AND SFC FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGN...AND SFC FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OUT NW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT AS SW FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE NIGHT. MINS WILL ONLY DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 ON
THE COAST...AND INTO THE 40S INLAND. WILL SEE SCT
SHRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN NRN ZONES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***COASTAL STORM LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BUSY
 HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD***

COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA TUE...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL OFF THE COAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR COASTAL
STORM LATER WED INTO THU.

FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAY 3 TO 4 TIME PERIOD...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST. WWD SHIFT CONTINUED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY...AT LEAST
ALLOWING FOR A GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS NH
AND WRN ME WED INTO THU. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RANGE FROM A COASTAL SCRAPER WITH LIGHT SNWFL NEAR THE COAST...THE
CMC...TO A STRONG LOW PRES CUTTING THRU THE HEART OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND BRINGING MIXING WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...THE ECMWF.

THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE N PACIFIC...WHERE A
TROF IS CROSSING THE AREA S OF AK. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
DOWNSTREAM WRN N AMERICA RIDGE. MONITORING THE HEIGHT FIELDS IN
THESE AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
NARROWING DOWN THE FORECAST. HIGHER THAN MODELED HEIGHTS OUT W
COULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARDS THE FARTHER W LOW PRES TRACK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

ATTM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST...SO
HAVE INCREASED POP FURTHER. NOW THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN
PTYPE. TEMPS ALOFT LOOK PLENTY COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNWFL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. AND IF THE ECMWF WERE CORRECT...COULD COME DOWN
QUITE HEAVILY FOR A TIME...BEFORE WARM AIR ALOFT FLOODS NWD AND
CHANGES PCPN TO A MIX...RAIN...OR DRY SLOTS ALTOGETHER. GIVEN THAT
IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A BLEND REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST
OPTION...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION BETWEEN THE CMC AND ECMWF. TIMING DIFFERENCE ARE
MINIMAL...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY
WED EVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRAVEL DISRUPTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH A HIGH VOLUME OF
PEOPLE ON THE ROADS AND AT AIRPORTS.

SECONDARY COLD FNT THEN HIGH PRES FOLLOW FOR FRI...WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FROM THE  PRE-DAWN
THRU ABOUT MIDDAY MON. VFR RETURNS DURING MON AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. VFR
CONDITIONS WED GIVE WAY QUICKLY WED EVENING TO IFR OR LOWER AS
SNWFL MOVES NWD UP THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AFTER WED
EVE...AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY TURN TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS GROWING MORE LIKELY
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA...BUT HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY FOR MON INTO MON EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES AND PERSISTS AND PUSHES SEAS TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE.


LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU AS COASTAL STORM
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231631
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1131 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM...DOWNSLOPE REALLY KICKING IN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD WARMING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S
MANY SPOTS, AND WILL PROBABLY ADD A FEW MORE  TO THAT FOR HIGHS.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS LINGER IN THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN THAN THIS MORNING.

930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...THIS UPDATES REMOVES POPS FOR ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
SPKLES IN THE MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE ON THE
SUNNY SIDE...AND HOLD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE MTNS. IT WILL
ALSO BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 ON THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR S
NH. 40S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230825
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230825
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND
EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60
AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR
INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR
DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY
SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING.

LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER
AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE
A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR
THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR
FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL
COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE
GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230513
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1207 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
     008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230513
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1207 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
     008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230225
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
925 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230225
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
925 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE CWA IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN NY SHOULD GET TO THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THAT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AND MUCH WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222322
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222322
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
622 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST AREA
IS MAINLY DRY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUSLY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 222035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING
RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY
NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH.
FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT
NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET
BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE
SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT
IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT
CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO
WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST.
THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR
MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A
PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE
W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID
RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE
IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING
THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE
BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS
WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003-
     005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221655
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1155 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221655
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1155 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
844 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
844 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221122
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

615 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221122
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

615 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220824
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
324 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220824
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
324 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1201 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1201 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 212309
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
 SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212309
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
 SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 212036
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
336 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
 SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211431
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900AM UPDATE.... FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. MORNING KGYX SOUNDING
SHOWS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO MIX OUT TO THE 30MPH
RANGE... WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211431
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900AM UPDATE.... FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. MORNING KGYX SOUNDING
SHOWS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO MIX OUT TO THE 30MPH
RANGE... WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




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