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000
FXUS61 KGYX 300649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE
WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING
SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY.

CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK.
WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG
THE SHORELINE TOWNS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 300649
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE
WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING
SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY.

CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK.
WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG
THE SHORELINE TOWNS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300153 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED PRECIPITATION SO FAR
BUT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WILL BE MONITORING THIS
OVERNIGHT... BUT FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
FORCING PASSES BY ALOFT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 300153 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED PRECIPITATION SO FAR
BUT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WILL BE MONITORING THIS
OVERNIGHT... BUT FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
FORCING PASSES BY ALOFT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 300153 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED PRECIPITATION SO FAR
BUT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WILL BE MONITORING THIS
OVERNIGHT... BUT FOR NOW HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
FORCING PASSES BY ALOFT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 292303 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 292303 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
WEAK SSW TO NNE FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN A FEW SPOTS BUT IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE WE WILL STILL SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TOWARDS
MORNING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
COME THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS AND 4 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHER THAN SOME BUBBLING CU AND SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS...A NICE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES.

1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHER THAN SOME BUBBLING CU AND SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS...A NICE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES.

1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHER THAN SOME BUBBLING CU AND SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS...A NICE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES.

1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
OTHER THAN SOME BUBBLING CU AND SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS...A NICE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES.

1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291420
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291420
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291420
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291420
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A FINE DAY WEATHERWISE IS
EXPECTED.

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
544 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

0545 UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY TODAY AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TODAY, WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
CIRRUS...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S.
OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

...WARM AND QUIET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  A
PATTERN REALIGNMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS JET ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH HELPING TO GIVE IT A KICK EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER CANADA FOLDS BENEATH RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE -NAO AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING IN
THIS REGION.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULT ACROSS NOAM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THIS PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS
THE WEEK CONTINUES.  INTERESTINGLY, THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND
INITIALLY UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...BUT WITH HEIGHTS LATER FALLING AS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES.  THIS PATTERN SPELLS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IN CONTROL
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CENTER
AROUND ANY MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL RIDGE-ROLLER
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.  A FURTHER CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM WE
WILL GET AS HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: EARLY MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AGREEMENT STRONGEST ON DETAILS OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WITH THE GFS STILL MORE ROBUST THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
PRIMARILY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE WEEK HEAT WE WILL ACHIEVE.

INTERESTINGLY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FAR MORE BULLISH WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE GFS SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES THE REGION AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOISTURE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN THAT WE/LL ALREADY
BE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AFTER SUNDAY/S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SEE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT SCHC/LOW CHANCE POP MENTION
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS WHICH
SUGGESTS A TERRIFIC DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS FLOW TRAJECTORIES ALOFT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED DYNAMICAL FORCING IS APPARENT WITH SPRAWLING RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /20
PERCENT/ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIDING
OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...OR SOME THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY /VERY AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEW
29.00Z GFS/.

TEMPERATURES:

VERY SUMMERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO +1-2SIGMA WITH T8S FOLLOWING SUIT.  BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCTS REVEALING 10-15 DEGREE SPREADS FROM THE BOTTOM
TO TOP MEMBERS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS LIKELY THE BEST WAY TO GO
HERE...GIVING A NOD TO THE RECENT TRENDS TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS.

BEYOND THIS...VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...BUT WILL TEMPER
HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION /GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST HERE THAN THE
ECMWF/...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH GRADUALLY
BUILDING HUMIDITY INDICATES DAILY MORNING FOG CONCERNS AT HIE/LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.  STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
/15-20KTS/ APPEAR TO BE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290054 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE 60S AND 50S IN MOST SPOTS. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
NOCTURNAL CURVE BASED ON A BLEND OF MESOMODELS...BUT OVERALL IT
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH. FOG SHOULD BE DEVELOPING SHORTLY. SOME
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE MAY REACH US BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER
FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON. RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290054 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE 60S AND 50S IN MOST SPOTS. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
NOCTURNAL CURVE BASED ON A BLEND OF MESOMODELS...BUT OVERALL IT
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH. FOG SHOULD BE DEVELOPING SHORTLY. SOME
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE MAY REACH US BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER
FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON. RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290054 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE 60S AND 50S IN MOST SPOTS. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
NOCTURNAL CURVE BASED ON A BLEND OF MESOMODELS...BUT OVERALL IT
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH. FOG SHOULD BE DEVELOPING SHORTLY. SOME
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE MAY REACH US BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER
FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON. RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282102 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
502 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON.
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY





000
FXUS61 KGYX 282102 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
502 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON.
RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281921
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING... WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH DAY AS 500 RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
POSSIBLE AT CONCORD AS WELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BECKER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...HAWLEY/KIMBLE
MARINE...HAWLEY/KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281448
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY
COVER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON TOUGH NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHILE CUMULUS IS FORMING IN A FEW OTHER PATCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

600 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY TODAY!

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JENSENIUS
LONG TERM... ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281448
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY
COVER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON TOUGH NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHILE CUMULUS IS FORMING IN A FEW OTHER PATCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

600 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY TODAY!

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JENSENIUS
LONG TERM... ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281448
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY
COVER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON TOUGH NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHILE CUMULUS IS FORMING IN A FEW OTHER PATCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

600 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY TODAY!

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JENSENIUS
LONG TERM... ARNOTT





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281448
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY
COVER. CLOUD COVER HANGING ON TOUGH NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHILE CUMULUS IS FORMING IN A FEW OTHER PATCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

600 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY TODAY!

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JENSENIUS
LONG TERM... ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280959
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
559 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0600 AM UPDATE...UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY
TODAY!

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL
PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LLEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280959
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
559 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0600 AM UPDATE...UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. A VERY NICE DAY
TODAY!

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL
PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LLEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280641
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL
PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LLEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280641
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL
PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LLEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280641
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL
PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LLEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280641
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL
PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO START TO INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NH. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NIL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NOAM BETWEEN SPRAWLING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH NEAR
HUDSON BAY.  THIS TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED NEAR OUR
LATITUDE...THE RESULT BEING A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WAS OVERHEAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  LOOKING
AHEAD...PRIMARY CONTROLLING FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOAM...WITH SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM WEST OF ONGOING BLOCKING /-NAO/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.  PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD HAVE TO COME
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE BAND OF STRONGEST WESTERLIES ALOFT
IS NEARBY...AND BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED NORTH BY DEVELOPING RIDGING.
BEYOND THIS...THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY SHOULD BE INCREASING WARMTH
AS ANOMALOUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPILLING EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

GUIDANCE TRENDS/CONFIDENCE:  LONGWAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HAVING IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ANY IMPACTS
FROM ERIKA /RAIN OR OTHERWISE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION....WHICH
FITS WELL WITH DOMINANT EASTERN NOAM RIDGING...WHICH YIELDS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF A PATH NORTHWARD FOR SUCH A SYSTEM.

THE DETAILS...

BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH A POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE AT H5...BUT A
MODEST JET STREAK AT H2. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TIMING OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GIVE THE BEST CLUE AS TO WHETHER IT CAN
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER.  30-50 PERCENT OF SREF MEMBERS
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...AND THE SREF IS TYPICALLY A BIT BULLISH...SO
SEE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY MUCH ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTH OF THIS LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANYTHING BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS REACHING COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY:  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO MAKE ONE LAST STAND ON
MONDAY AS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GGEM/ECMWF...AND IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GEFS ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE IN THIS CASE...DRIVING A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE UPPER WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS...BUT MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING REALLY GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW...SO WILL STICK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
SPEAK OF.  WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALLOW A MODEST RETURN OF LLEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES /SEE
BELOW/.

THERE IS SOME WEAK AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS WE REACH THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY...THE SHARPENING RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ENERGY TO DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND /RIDGE ROLLERS/ RATHER THAN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  CLEARLY THERE ISN/T ANY SKILL TIMING THIS 7 DAYS OUT...BUT
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVELS
/SLIGHT CHANCE/ ARE LIKELY WARRANTED TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES: A WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PERIOD IS IN
STORE...WITH T8S SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TEENS.  THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO REACH THEIR WARMEST
LEVELS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH T8S +1-2
SIGMA...LIKELY ALLOWING THE WARMEST SPOTS TO REACH 90 AT LEAST ONCE
DURING THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
WEDNESDAY...AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN READINGS CONTINUING THIS WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
FORESEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...NO ORGANIZED AREA OF RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY COMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY /COVERAGE LOOKS NO GREATER
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED/. OUTSIDE OF THIS...LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG AT
HIE/LEB WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE
EAST COAST...WITH BOTH WINDS/WAVES REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280101 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
901 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL AS SOME MID CLOUDS CROSSING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. THE
MID CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND WILL
CROSS TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
BROUGHT POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT KEPT THEM FROM THE
CARRABASSETT VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CUMULUS FIELD AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL... EXPECT A CALM DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM
ALONG THE COAST IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WIND
FLOW. SOME CUMULUS IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS EXPANSIVE
AS TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. VALLEY FOG WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHT AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH A HINT OF
SURFACE TROFFING IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO THEREFORE
WE EXPECT A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FINE DAY ALSO WITH INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREAFTER...DEEP LAYER RIDGING APPEARS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER
WILL BE COMING ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
IMPACT PLACES LIKE CONCORD AS WELL.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
FOG AFFECTING VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280101 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
901 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL AS SOME MID CLOUDS CROSSING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. THE
MID CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND WILL
CROSS TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
BROUGHT POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT KEPT THEM FROM THE
CARRABASSETT VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CUMULUS FIELD AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL... EXPECT A CALM DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM
ALONG THE COAST IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WIND
FLOW. SOME CUMULUS IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS EXPANSIVE
AS TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. VALLEY FOG WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHT AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH A HINT OF
SURFACE TROFFING IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO THEREFORE
WE EXPECT A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FINE DAY ALSO WITH INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREAFTER...DEEP LAYER RIDGING APPEARS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER
WILL BE COMING ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
IMPACT PLACES LIKE CONCORD AS WELL.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
FOG AFFECTING VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 272226 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
626 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
BROUGHT POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT KEPT THEM FROM THE
CARRABASSETT VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CUMULUS FIELD AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS TRIGGERED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MAINLY STAYED IN NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG
WITH A VAST EXPANSE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

DRIER AIR IN PLACE... DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S... AND CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN FAVORED VALLEYS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MORE DOMINANT AND COOLING
WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE
WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL... EXPECT A CALM DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM
ALONG THE COAST IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WIND
FLOW. SOME CUMULUS IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS EXPANSIVE
AS TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. VALLEY FOG WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHT AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH A HINT OF
SURFACE TROFFING IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO THEREFORE
WE EXPECT A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FINE DAY ALSO WITH INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREAFTER...DEEP LAYER RIDGING APPEARS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER
WILL BE COMING ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
IMPACT PLACES LIKE CONCORD AS WELL.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
FOG AFFECTING VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272226 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
626 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
BROUGHT POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT KEPT THEM FROM THE
CARRABASSETT VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CUMULUS FIELD AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS TRIGGERED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MAINLY STAYED IN NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG
WITH A VAST EXPANSE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

DRIER AIR IN PLACE... DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S... AND CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN FAVORED VALLEYS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MORE DOMINANT AND COOLING
WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE
WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL... EXPECT A CALM DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM
ALONG THE COAST IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WIND
FLOW. SOME CUMULUS IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS EXPANSIVE
AS TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. VALLEY FOG WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHT AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH A HINT OF
SURFACE TROFFING IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO THEREFORE
WE EXPECT A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FINE DAY ALSO WITH INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREAFTER...DEEP LAYER RIDGING APPEARS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER
WILL BE COMING ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
IMPACT PLACES LIKE CONCORD AS WELL.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
FOG AFFECTING VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS TRIGGERED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MAINLY STAYED IN NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG
WITH A VAST EXPANSE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

DRIER AIR IN PLACE... DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S... AND CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN FAVORED VALLEYS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MORE DOMINANT AND COOLING
WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE
WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL... EXPECT A CALM DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM
ALONG THE COAST IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WIND
FLOW. SOME CUMULUS IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS EXPANSIVE
AS TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. VALLEY FOG WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHT AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH A HINT OF
SURFACE TROFFING IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO THEREFORE
WE EXPECT A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FINE DAY ALSO WITH INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREAFTER...DEEP LAYER RIDGING APPEARS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER
WILL BE COMING ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
IMPACT PLACES LIKE CONCORD AS WELL.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
FOG AFFECTING VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS TRIGGERED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MAINLY STAYED IN NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG
WITH A VAST EXPANSE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

DRIER AIR IN PLACE... DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S... AND CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN FAVORED VALLEYS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MORE DOMINANT AND COOLING
WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE
WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL... EXPECT A CALM DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM
ALONG THE COAST IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WIND
FLOW. SOME CUMULUS IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS EXPANSIVE
AS TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. VALLEY FOG WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHT AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH A HINT OF
SURFACE TROFFING IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO THEREFORE
WE EXPECT A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FINE DAY ALSO WITH INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREAFTER...DEEP LAYER RIDGING APPEARS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN US...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER
WILL BE COMING ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
IMPACT PLACES LIKE CONCORD AS WELL.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
FOG AFFECTING VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271509
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1109 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER
INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO BETTER SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHOWER OR TWO UP
THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST.

630AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK IS ALLOWING SOME VERY PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE.

UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH FINAL
SHORTWAVE TROF SET TO CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AT THIS HOUR. PLENTY
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS TRIGGER BY
TROF PASSAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO
BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE
COLUMN E OF THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL DAY
TO SPEND SOME TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING IN WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR VALLEY FOG AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A DEFINITE CHILL COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO
COMPLAIN ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEATHER. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH VERY COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
DURING THE DAY. AFTER SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...MAY DEPEND ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL HEATING. AT
THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. NEXT WEEK...STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION WILL IMPACT MOVEMENT
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST GFS GRADUALLY BUILDS UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF KEEPS UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER WEST KEEPING THE NORTHEAST A BIT COOLER WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROUGH AND/OR BACKDOOR FRONTS AFFECTING THE
AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ERIKA WOULD AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT IF
WINDS CAN GO CALM. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE MAY STAY UP TO PRECLUDE FOG.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MORNING FOG AFFECTING
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271509
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1109 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER
INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO BETTER SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHOWER OR TWO UP
THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST.

630AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK IS ALLOWING SOME VERY PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE.

UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH FINAL
SHORTWAVE TROF SET TO CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AT THIS HOUR. PLENTY
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS TRIGGER BY
TROF PASSAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO
BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE
COLUMN E OF THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL DAY
TO SPEND SOME TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING IN WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR VALLEY FOG AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A DEFINITE CHILL COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO
COMPLAIN ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEATHER. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH VERY COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
DURING THE DAY. AFTER SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...MAY DEPEND ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL HEATING. AT
THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. NEXT WEEK...STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION WILL IMPACT MOVEMENT
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST GFS GRADUALLY BUILDS UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF KEEPS UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER WEST KEEPING THE NORTHEAST A BIT COOLER WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROUGH AND/OR BACKDOOR FRONTS AFFECTING THE
AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ERIKA WOULD AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT IF
WINDS CAN GO CALM. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE MAY STAY UP TO PRECLUDE FOG.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MORNING FOG AFFECTING
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271509
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1109 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER
INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO BETTER SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHOWER OR TWO UP
THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST.

630AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK IS ALLOWING SOME VERY PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE.

UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH FINAL
SHORTWAVE TROF SET TO CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AT THIS HOUR. PLENTY
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS TRIGGER BY
TROF PASSAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO
BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE
COLUMN E OF THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL DAY
TO SPEND SOME TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING IN WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR VALLEY FOG AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A DEFINITE CHILL COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO
COMPLAIN ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEATHER. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH VERY COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
DURING THE DAY. AFTER SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...MAY DEPEND ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL HEATING. AT
THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. NEXT WEEK...STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION WILL IMPACT MOVEMENT
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST GFS GRADUALLY BUILDS UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF KEEPS UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER WEST KEEPING THE NORTHEAST A BIT COOLER WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROUGH AND/OR BACKDOOR FRONTS AFFECTING THE
AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ERIKA WOULD AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT IF
WINDS CAN GO CALM. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE MAY STAY UP TO PRECLUDE FOG.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MORNING FOG AFFECTING
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271032 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK IS ALLOWING
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU
SUNRISE.

UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH FINAL
S/WV TROF SET TO CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AT THIS HOUR. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS TRIGGER BY
TROF PASSAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO
BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE
COLUMN E OF THE MTNS.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL DAY TO SPEND
SOME TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVING IN WRN ZONES BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
VALLEY FOG AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL HAVE A
DEFINITE CHILL COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NRN ZONES.

WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVERHEAD FRI...NOT MUCH TO COMPLAIN ABOUT
WHEN IT COMES TO THE WX. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
DURING THE DAY. AFTER SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. EXTENT OF PRECIP...IF ANY...MAY
DEPEND ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL HEATING. AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
NEXT WEEK...STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION WILL IMPACT MOVEMENT OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST GFS GRADUALLY BUILDS UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF KEEPS UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER WEST KEEPING THE NORTHEAST A BIT COOLER WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROUGH AND/OR BACKDOOR FRONTS AFFECTING THE
AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ERIKA WOULD AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRI. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT IF WINDS
CAN GO CALM. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MAY STAY
UP TO PRECLUDE FOG.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MORNING FOG AFFECTING
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271032 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK IS ALLOWING
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU
SUNRISE.

UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH FINAL
S/WV TROF SET TO CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AT THIS HOUR. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS TRIGGER BY
TROF PASSAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO
BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE
COLUMN E OF THE MTNS.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL DAY TO SPEND
SOME TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVING IN WRN ZONES BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
VALLEY FOG AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL HAVE A
DEFINITE CHILL COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NRN ZONES.

WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVERHEAD FRI...NOT MUCH TO COMPLAIN ABOUT
WHEN IT COMES TO THE WX. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
DURING THE DAY. AFTER SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. EXTENT OF PRECIP...IF ANY...MAY
DEPEND ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL HEATING. AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
NEXT WEEK...STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION WILL IMPACT MOVEMENT OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST GFS GRADUALLY BUILDS UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF KEEPS UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER WEST KEEPING THE NORTHEAST A BIT COOLER WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROUGH AND/OR BACKDOOR FRONTS AFFECTING THE
AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ERIKA WOULD AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRI. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT IF WINDS
CAN GO CALM. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MAY STAY
UP TO PRECLUDE FOG.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MORNING FOG AFFECTING
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271032 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK IS ALLOWING
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU
SUNRISE.

UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH FINAL
S/WV TROF SET TO CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AT THIS HOUR. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS TRIGGER BY
TROF PASSAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO
BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE
COLUMN E OF THE MTNS.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL DAY TO SPEND
SOME TIME OUTDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVING IN WRN ZONES BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
VALLEY FOG AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL HAVE A
DEFINITE CHILL COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NRN ZONES.

WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVERHEAD FRI...NOT MUCH TO COMPLAIN ABOUT
WHEN IT COMES TO THE WX. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
DURING THE DAY. AFTER SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST...MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. EXTENT OF PRECIP...IF ANY...MAY
DEPEND ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL HEATING. AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
NEXT WEEK...STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION WILL IMPACT MOVEMENT OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST GFS GRADUALLY BUILDS UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF KEEPS UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER WEST KEEPING THE NORTHEAST A BIT COOLER WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROUGH AND/OR BACKDOOR FRONTS AFFECTING THE
AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ERIKA WOULD AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRI. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT IF WINDS
CAN GO CALM. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MAY STAY
UP TO PRECLUDE FOG.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MORNING FOG AFFECTING
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS




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