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000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM...A FEW FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE NOW
EXITING THE MID-COAST /WHICH DESPITE SOME DECENT RADAR ECHOES ONLY
MANAGED TO BRING VIS DOWN TO 6-7SM/. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA OR SHSN
IS STARTING TO WORK THROUGH THE ENE ZONES. THESE ARE ASSOCD WITH THE
500MB TROUGH...AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE TN ZONES...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. THESE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDDAY. ALREADY
SEEING M/CLR SKIES IN SRN NH...AND THIS WILL PUSH E THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME SCT STRATOCU CU SPILL BACK IN FROM THE NW
NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.

PREVIOUSLY...SOME RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS NRN NH ATTM. THE ONLY SIGH OF THIS
REACHING THE GROUND WAS A 10SM -SHRA AT KMPV. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR SPKL...OR EVEN A BIT OF PL...IN THE MTNS THROUGH ABOUT
10Z...AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. PROBABLY THE BETTER CHC OF OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ALON THE INTL AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MTNS
BETWEEN 10-15Z...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. AFTER
THIS THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS WELL.

WILL SEE THE WIND START TO PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL SURGE
EVEN STRONGER DURING THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEN 500MB TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT WILL
BE MORE BREEZY THAN WINDY WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 30 OR SO. THIS WILL LKLY LEAD TO
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NH AND SW ME...SEE
THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BLO. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 50S ON THE COASTAL...WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS HITTING
60. IN THE MTNS WILL LKLY SEE TEMPS START TO DROP OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN....AND MIDDAY HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MID-UPPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET...AND BY LATE
EVENING THE SHELTERED SPOTS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE....AS SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER THE CWA EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES WITH MINS INTHE 20S TO
LOW 30S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR S ON SUNDAY...AND SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY SUNNY. LOOK FOR SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LIMIT
HIGHS ON THE COAST TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S...BUT THEY WILL REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD ON MON...ALLOWING SOME SLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP...MOIST
FLOW TO RETURN NWD HOWEVER...ALLOWING MON TO BE A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH SOME SUN. DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY
DISLODGE LOW PRES E...AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. TUE SHOULD STEADILY CLOUD OVER...WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
SINCE LAST EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TROF...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS OF A COMBINED
PINWHEELING GYRE. ATTM IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF RNFL WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SEASONABLY
HIGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHRA. UPPER TROF CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WED...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AND WINDY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MANLY VFR THROUGH SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SHRASN
BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDS TO KHIE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED MON...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SWELL IS
JUST STARTING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING...AND COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVE.  WIND SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO NE TONIGHT INTO SUN.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. GUSTY NW FLOW WILL BRING WINDS
AND SEAS LIKELY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BORDERLINE METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN SRN NH AND SW ME. BASED ON CONSULTATION WITH ME/NH
FOREST OFFICIALSYESTERDAY...FUELS NOT AT CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT
WILL BE IN TOUCH WITH THEM FOR ADDL INFO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 190735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS NRN NH ATTM. THE ONLY SIGH OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND WAS
A 10SM -SHRA AT KMPV. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR SPKL...OR EVEN A
BIT OF PL...IN THE MTNS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. PROBABLY THE BETTER CHC OF OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALON THE
INTL AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MTNS BETWEEN 10-15Z...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THIS THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.

WILL SEE THE WIND START TO PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL SURGE
EVEN STRONGER DURING THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEN 500MB TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT WILL
BE MORE BREEZY THAN WINDY WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 30 OR SO. THIS WILL LKLY LEAD TO
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NH AND SW ME...SEE
THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BLO. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 50S ON THE COASTAL...WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS HITTING
60. IN THE MTNS WILL LKLY SEE TEMPS START TO DROP OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN....AND MIDDAY HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MID-UPPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET...AND BY LATE
EVENING THE SHELTERED SPOTS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE....AS SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER THE CWA EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES WITH MINS INTHE 20S TO
LOW 30S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR S ON SUNDAY...AND SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY SUNNY. LOOK FOR SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LIMIT
HIGHS ON THE COAST TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S...BUT THEY WILL REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD ON MON...ALLOWING SOME SLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP...MOIST
FLOW TO RETURN NWD HOWEVER...ALLOWING MON TO BE A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH SOME SUN. DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY
DISLODGE LOW PRES E...AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. TUE SHOULD STEADILY CLOUD OVER...WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
SINCE LAST EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TROF...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS OF A COMBINED
PINWHEELING GYRE. ATTM IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF RNFL WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SEASONABLY
HIGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHRA. UPPER TROF CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WED...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AND WINDY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MANLY VFR THROUGH SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SHRASN
BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDS TO KHIE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED MON...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SWELL IS
JUST STARTING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING...AND COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVE.  WIND SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO NE TONIGHT INTO SUN.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. GUSTY NW FLOW WILL BRING WINDS
AND SEAS LIKELY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BORDERLINE METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDOS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEN NH AND SW ME. BASED ON CONSULTATION WITH ME/NH
FOREST OFFICIALS...FUELS NOT AT CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WILL CONTACT
THEM AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING FOR ADDLE INFO.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO










000
FXUS61 KGYX 190735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS NRN NH ATTM. THE ONLY SIGH OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND WAS
A 10SM -SHRA AT KMPV. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR SPKL...OR EVEN A
BIT OF PL...IN THE MTNS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. PROBABLY THE BETTER CHC OF OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALON THE
INTL AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MTNS BETWEEN 10-15Z...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THIS THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.

WILL SEE THE WIND START TO PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL SURGE
EVEN STRONGER DURING THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEN 500MB TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT WILL
BE MORE BREEZY THAN WINDY WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 30 OR SO. THIS WILL LKLY LEAD TO
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NH AND SW ME...SEE
THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BLO. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 50S ON THE COASTAL...WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS HITTING
60. IN THE MTNS WILL LKLY SEE TEMPS START TO DROP OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN....AND MIDDAY HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MID-UPPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET...AND BY LATE
EVENING THE SHELTERED SPOTS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE....AS SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER THE CWA EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES WITH MINS INTHE 20S TO
LOW 30S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR S ON SUNDAY...AND SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY SUNNY. LOOK FOR SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LIMIT
HIGHS ON THE COAST TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S...BUT THEY WILL REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD ON MON...ALLOWING SOME SLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP...MOIST
FLOW TO RETURN NWD HOWEVER...ALLOWING MON TO BE A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH SOME SUN. DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY
DISLODGE LOW PRES E...AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. TUE SHOULD STEADILY CLOUD OVER...WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
SINCE LAST EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TROF...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS OF A COMBINED
PINWHEELING GYRE. ATTM IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF RNFL WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SEASONABLY
HIGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHRA. UPPER TROF CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WED...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AND WINDY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MANLY VFR THROUGH SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SHRASN
BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDS TO KHIE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED MON...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SWELL IS
JUST STARTING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING...AND COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVE.  WIND SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO NE TONIGHT INTO SUN.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. GUSTY NW FLOW WILL BRING WINDS
AND SEAS LIKELY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BORDERLINE METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDOS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEN NH AND SW ME. BASED ON CONSULTATION WITH ME/NH
FOREST OFFICIALS...FUELS NOT AT CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WILL CONTACT
THEM AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING FOR ADDLE INFO.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO











000
FXUS61 KGYX 190424
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...UPDATED POPS AND P-TYPE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TREND. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS AND SUPREMELY DRY LOW TO MID-LVLS NOTED IN
00Z GYX AND ALY RAOBS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS JUST A BIT...BUT ALSO
REMOVED ANY PL/FZRA. GIVEN THE DRY LYR ALOFT...WET BULB TEMPS
SUGGEST EITHER SN OR RA BASED ON BL TEMPS. SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHC
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PL RIGHT AT THE START...BUT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED. QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
NRN ZONES...SO SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS COULD OCCUR THERE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
HIGHER CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 190424
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...UPDATED POPS AND P-TYPE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TREND. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS AND SUPREMELY DRY LOW TO MID-LVLS NOTED IN
00Z GYX AND ALY RAOBS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS JUST A BIT...BUT ALSO
REMOVED ANY PL/FZRA. GIVEN THE DRY LYR ALOFT...WET BULB TEMPS
SUGGEST EITHER SN OR RA BASED ON BL TEMPS. SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHC
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PL RIGHT AT THE START...BUT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED. QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
NRN ZONES...SO SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS COULD OCCUR THERE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
HIGHER CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 181853
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE COAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HIGHER
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60F IN SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A DIGGING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FETCH OF POTENTIAL
MOIST INFLOW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIR...COOL...AND WINDY WEATHER IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SAT TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY MAY APPROACH METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING. PLEASE CONSULT
THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER











000
FXUS61 KGYX 181628
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1228 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1225 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE PRESENT MESONET.

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES








000
FXUS61 KGYX 181628
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1228 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1225 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE PRESENT MESONET.

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 181435
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM...METARS AND GOES IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW CLOUD SPREADING
INLAND ON THE ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS OTHER 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE MESONET. I ADJUSTED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ISSUED AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
I LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS TO REFLECT NEAR METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 181038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC THIS MORNING. CT RIVER WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 181038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
635 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES OT THE FORECASTS...MAINLY TEMPS
AND SKY. SKY WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON PROGRESS OF SCT-BKN STRATUS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS DOES MAKE
IT INTO COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY AS SCT
CLOUDS...AND HAVE ADJ THE GRIDS TO REFLECT 40-50 PERCENT SKY
COVER.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC THIS MORNING. CT RIVER WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 180721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDE A THREAT OF SHOWERS. MILDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NE TODAY AND WILL SEE AN EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH DOES NOSE BACK TO THE WEST A
BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR WHICH CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE NE...HAS PREVENTED COASTAL STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING...AND THIS WILL LKLY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
TODAY. AS THE HIGH PULLS FURTHER E LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE SE...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME STRATUS IN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 40S ON THE COAST AND WARNING TO AROUND 50 INLAND.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PASS N OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...OF SORTS...ACROSS THE AREA.
SHRASN WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NH LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR ME ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 500MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY...AND THERE IS A BRIEF
SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LVLS
REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NRN
ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH WONT RULE OUT A SPKL OR FLURRY AROUND 12Z SAT.
MINS TONIGHT WILL LKLY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR RISING A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS QUICKLY...BUT WILL SLO KEEP THE
THREAT OF SOME UPSLOPE SHRASN IN THE MTNS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NW FLOW...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE MTNS OR FOOTHILLS. MAXES SAT LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE 50ISH
LOOKS LIKE THE LIMIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS HIGH
SHIFTS EWD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM WEAK SFC FLOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
LOW CLOUDS/FOG UNTIL TUE...WHEN APPROACHING FNT FROM THE W
INCREASES SLY FLOW. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE...FIRST FOR NH THEN ME AS TUE PROGRESSES
INTO WED.

THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
GREAT LAKES TROF AND WEAK LOW PRES OFFSHORE. TO SOME EXTENT ALL
MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES AND TRY AND CUT IT
OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING WINDS. THE 18/00Z CMC IS THE WEAKEST
WITH PHASING...WHILE THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS THE NEXT QUICKEST TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM OUT. THE GFS HOWEVER WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM CUT OFF NEAR
THE GULF OF ME...KEEPING UNSETTLED WX LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN NWP IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR WITH
HANDLING THESE TYPES OF FEATURES I SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM A
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE VERY LEAST SHRA CHANCES ARE
INCREASING TUE INTO WED...WITH THE QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND HOW
QUICKLY THEY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC
THAT COASTAL TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS AFTER
20Z...WITH A BETTER CHC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH KHIE COULD SEE SOME TEMPO
MVFR IN SHRASN ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRES SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW WILL BRING SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT TODAY
OUTSIDE THE BAYS...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MORNING...AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
NW...WHICH SHOULD KNOCK BACK THE SWELL.


LONG TERM..WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRES INVOF THE
GULF OF ME MAY AT LEAST BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS TO THE WATERS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING ATTM. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THEM FOR
THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC BY THE END OF THIS SHIFT. CT RIVER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD POSSIBLY INTO SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...LEGRO










000
FXUS61 KGYX 180430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM...HAVE BACKED OFF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COMING IN
BEFORE DAWN...AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF THEM OFFSHORE ATTM...AND
COLUMN REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 180430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM...HAVE BACKED OFF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COMING IN
BEFORE DAWN...AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF THEM OFFSHORE ATTM...AND
COLUMN REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 180139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 180139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 172348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KGYX 172348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. SKIES REMAIN MOCLR AND
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC;
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 171856
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.




&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL...RIVERS
ARE RECEDING BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED SNOWMELT.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE
DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 171856
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY.




&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF
THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON
GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW
CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD
INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO
40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY
MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN
SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE
NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL...RIVERS
ARE RECEDING BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED SNOWMELT.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE
DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS










000
FXUS61 KGYX 171603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...QUIET AND COLD SPRING DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 171603
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1201 PM...QUIET AND COLD SPRING DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 171319
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 171319
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY
START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE
RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND
BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD
RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH
IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA








000
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA







000
FXUS61 KGYX 170711
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 170711
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL
MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY
BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT
CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY.
BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST
COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW
50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW
SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN
TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING
PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR
LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO
BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN
AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME
FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE
HYDROLOGY...CEMPA






000
FXUS61 KGYX 170131
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN LITTLE
OR NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TNGT WITH LGT WINDS...EXCEPT A NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE NGT ALONG THE COAST...IN PART
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE COLDER LAND AND THE
WARMER OCEAN. SKIES WILL BE CLR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE RECORD LOWS ARE 18F SET IN
1908 AT CONCORD AND 24F SET IN 2003 AT PORTLAND FOR APRIL 17TH...
AND BOTH ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...WE`LL ONLY REBOUND TO THE 40S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE WE`LL SEE THE ICEBOX DOOR
OPEN...WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE BREEZE OFF THE 40 DEGREE OCEAN
FURTHER LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY...A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST RATHER
COOL. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT ADDING AND DRIZZLE/FOG ALTHOUGH THESE
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING JUST A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP IN MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR THRU THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY WILL CONT
THURSDAY NGT AND THIS MAY GRADUALLY BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...AND
PERHAPS INLAND TO CON AND AUG.


LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE`S A CHANCE OF SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST. ALREADY DROPPED THE SCA FOR CASCO AND PENOBSCOT BAYS
AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS
STILL AT MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING THERE. HOWEVER... THAT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED LATER
TNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE COLD NW FLOW, THOUGH, MAY
KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SEAS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLD BY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO OFFSHORE
WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE DROPPING OFF. QUIET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.


LONG TERM...SEAS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 170131
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN LITTLE
OR NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TNGT WITH LGT WINDS...EXCEPT A NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE NGT ALONG THE COAST...IN PART
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE COLDER LAND AND THE
WARMER OCEAN. SKIES WILL BE CLR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE RECORD LOWS ARE 18F SET IN
1908 AT CONCORD AND 24F SET IN 2003 AT PORTLAND FOR APRIL 17TH...
AND BOTH ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...WE`LL ONLY REBOUND TO THE 40S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE WE`LL SEE THE ICEBOX DOOR
OPEN...WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE BREEZE OFF THE 40 DEGREE OCEAN
FURTHER LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY...A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST RATHER
COOL. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT ADDING AND DRIZZLE/FOG ALTHOUGH THESE
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING JUST A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP IN MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR THRU THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY WILL CONT
THURSDAY NGT AND THIS MAY GRADUALLY BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...AND
PERHAPS INLAND TO CON AND AUG.


LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE`S A CHANCE OF SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST. ALREADY DROPPED THE SCA FOR CASCO AND PENOBSCOT BAYS
AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS
STILL AT MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING THERE. HOWEVER... THAT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED LATER
TNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE COLD NW FLOW, THOUGH, MAY
KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SEAS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLD BY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO OFFSHORE
WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE DROPPING OFF. QUIET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.


LONG TERM...SEAS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 162243
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE
THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TNGT WITH LGT WINDS...EXCEPT A NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE NGT ALONG THE COAST...IN PART
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE COLDER LAND AND THE
WARMER OCEAN. SKIES WILL BE CLR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE RECORD LOWS ARE 18F SET IN
1908 AT CONCORD AND 24F SET IN 2003 AT PORTLAND FOR APRIL 17TH...
AND BOTH ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...WE`LL ONLY REBOUND TO THE 40S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE WE`LL SEE THE ICEBOX DOOR
OPEN...WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE BREEZE OFF THE 40 DEGREE OCEAN
FURTHER LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY...A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST RATHER
COOL. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT ADDING AND DRIZZLE/FOG ALTHOUGH THESE
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING JUST A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP IN MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR THRU THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY WILL CONT
THURSDAY NGT AND THIS MAY GRADUALLY BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...AND
PERHAPS INLAND TO CON AND AUG.


LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE`S A CHANCE OF SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO DROP
THE SCA FOR CASCO AND PENOBSCOT BAYS AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS STILL AT MINIMAL SCA LEVELS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS SO WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING THERE. HOWEVER...
THAT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED LATER TNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THE COLD NW FLOW, THOUGH, MAY KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD BY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO OFFSHORE WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE
DROPPING OFF. QUIET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.


LONG TERM...SEAS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 162243
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE
THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TNGT WITH LGT WINDS...EXCEPT A NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE NGT ALONG THE COAST...IN PART
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE COLDER LAND AND THE
WARMER OCEAN. SKIES WILL BE CLR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE RECORD LOWS ARE 18F SET IN
1908 AT CONCORD AND 24F SET IN 2003 AT PORTLAND FOR APRIL 17TH...
AND BOTH ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...WE`LL ONLY REBOUND TO THE 40S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE WE`LL SEE THE ICEBOX DOOR
OPEN...WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE BREEZE OFF THE 40 DEGREE OCEAN
FURTHER LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY...A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST RATHER
COOL. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT ADDING AND DRIZZLE/FOG ALTHOUGH THESE
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING JUST A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP IN MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR THRU THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY WILL CONT
THURSDAY NGT AND THIS MAY GRADUALLY BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...AND
PERHAPS INLAND TO CON AND AUG.


LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE`S A CHANCE OF SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO DROP
THE SCA FOR CASCO AND PENOBSCOT BAYS AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS STILL AT MINIMAL SCA LEVELS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS SO WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING THERE. HOWEVER...
THAT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED LATER TNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THE COLD NW FLOW, THOUGH, MAY KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD BY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO OFFSHORE WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE
DROPPING OFF. QUIET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.


LONG TERM...SEAS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 161902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR RECORD COLD. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON LATEST GOES
IMAGERY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION...OR
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD
NIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE RECORD LOWS ARE 18F SET IN 1908 AT CONCORD
AND 24F SET IN 2003 AT PORTLAND...AND WE`LL EASILY MAKE A RUN AT
BOTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...WE`LL ONLY REBOUND TO THE 40S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE WE`LL SEE THE ICEBOX DOOR
OPEN...WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE BREEZE OFF THE 40 DEGREE OCEAN
FURTHER LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY...A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST RATHER
COOL. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT ADDING AND DRIZZLE/FOG ALTHOUGH THESE
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING JUST A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP IN MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR EXPECTED.


LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE`S A CHANCE OF SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.


&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT
SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLD BY LATE TONIGHT. QUIET
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
WATERS.


LONG TERM...SEAS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SLOWER REACTING MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 161902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR RECORD COLD. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON LATEST GOES
IMAGERY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION...OR
A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD
NIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE RECORD LOWS ARE 18F SET IN 1908 AT CONCORD
AND 24F SET IN 2003 AT PORTLAND...AND WE`LL EASILY MAKE A RUN AT
BOTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...WE`LL ONLY REBOUND TO THE 40S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE WE`LL SEE THE ICEBOX DOOR
OPEN...WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE BREEZE OFF THE 40 DEGREE OCEAN
FURTHER LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY...A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST RATHER
COOL. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT ADDING AND DRIZZLE/FOG ALTHOUGH THESE
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING JUST A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP IN MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR EXPECTED.


LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE`S A CHANCE OF SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.


&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT
SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLD BY LATE TONIGHT. QUIET
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
WATERS.


LONG TERM...SEAS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SLOWER REACTING MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS










000
FXUS61 KGYX 161445
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1045 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXITED TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS AND WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW INSTABILITY CLOUDS ELSEWHERE...IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE WE`LL BE
RUNNING A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND ADDING AN EXTRA BITE TO THE COLD. THE
GALE WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN SCA WITH THE UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE A SHARP END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW HOURS
LONGER.

IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF SUN THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GO CALM
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY... CALM WINDS...
AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. RECORD COLD IS POSSIBLE AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RECORD LOW AT PORTLAND FOR
THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003. AT CONCORD THE RECORD IS 18
SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.

AIR MASS TRIES TO MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW BEGIN. THIS
EASTERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. A FAST MOVING WAVE AT 500 MB CROSSES MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING OFF SOME
SHOWERS...MAINLY RAIN. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. THE
HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...AND SW FLOW SETS UP AGAIN...WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING IN...AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AS THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COULD STILL SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. THE
BAYS ARE NOW IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AS WIND GUSTS TO
25 OR 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THERE. SEAS MAY STAY ABOVE 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH INTO ADJACENT WESTERN ME THROUGH MID
MORNING AS OUR FLASHY RIVERS ARE CRESTING NOW...AND THIS WILL GIVE
THE STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS TIME TO FALL BELOW FLOOD LEVELS.
SLOWER REACTING MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES









000
FXUS61 KGYX 161445
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1045 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXITED TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS AND WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW INSTABILITY CLOUDS ELSEWHERE...IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE WE`LL BE
RUNNING A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND ADDING AN EXTRA BITE TO THE COLD. THE
GALE WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN SCA WITH THE UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE A SHARP END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW HOURS
LONGER.

IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF SUN THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GO CALM
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY... CALM WINDS...
AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. RECORD COLD IS POSSIBLE AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RECORD LOW AT PORTLAND FOR
THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003. AT CONCORD THE RECORD IS 18
SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.

AIR MASS TRIES TO MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW BEGIN. THIS
EASTERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. A FAST MOVING WAVE AT 500 MB CROSSES MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING OFF SOME
SHOWERS...MAINLY RAIN. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. THE
HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...AND SW FLOW SETS UP AGAIN...WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING IN...AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AS THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COULD STILL SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. THE
BAYS ARE NOW IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AS WIND GUSTS TO
25 OR 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THERE. SEAS MAY STAY ABOVE 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH INTO ADJACENT WESTERN ME THROUGH MID
MORNING AS OUR FLASHY RIVERS ARE CRESTING NOW...AND THIS WILL GIVE
THE STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS TIME TO FALL BELOW FLOOD LEVELS.
SLOWER REACTING MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND
PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES








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