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000
FXUS61 KGYX 261508 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1008 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO THICKEN UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES. SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS STREAMERS
APPARENTLY TRYING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE MIDCOAST THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261508 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1008 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO THICKEN UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES. SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS STREAMERS
APPARENTLY TRYING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE MIDCOAST THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261126 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
626 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS...AS CIRRUS
SHIELD HASN/T SIGNIFICANT IMPACTED RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261126 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
626 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS...AS CIRRUS
SHIELD HASN/T SIGNIFICANT IMPACTED RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260950
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
450 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MOST OF TODAY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD...AND WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE NE THRU
THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NH AS LOW
PRES BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED S OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COASTAL STORM IS SET TO
AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT.

LOW PRES WILL MOVE THRU THE CAROLINAS TODAY...AND EXIT THE EAST
COAST. HERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRES WILL DROP SOME 20 MB IN 24
HOURS...AND TAKE A POSITION S OF NEW ENGLAND AND STALL OR SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS KACK. HEADLINES REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ERN HILLSBOROUGH BEING ADDED TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS.

A DEPARTING JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KTS N OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLY JET STREAK OFF THE EAST COAST IN
EXCESS OF 130 KTS TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR RELATIVELY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. GFS CROSS SECTIONS THRU FORECAST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY KPWM TO KHIE SHOW INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A
LAYER NEAR H7. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIT THRU THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNWFL WILL BE IDEAL AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN THE WINDS FORECAST
ALOFT. GFS HAS THIS AXIS ALIGNED NEARLY ON TOP OF THE COASTLINE.
GIVEN THE FEATURES AVAILABLE ONE CAN INFER THAT THE ECMWF IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW OF THE GFS AXIS. ALTERNATIVELY...FINDING THE
AREA WITHIN THE MODELED FRONTOGENESIS AT H8 ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE DEFORMATION MAXIMUM SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW WITH IDEAL SNWFL.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS LEFT REGARDING THIS STORM AND
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNWFL AMOUNTS. MODELED QPF IS
STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
SRN NH. THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR MANY AREAS TO SEE 2 FEET OF
SNWFL. IN ADDITION...OCCLUSION WILL ACT TO SHUT DOWN WAA PROCESSES
AND CUT OFF THE INTENSE LIFT NECESSARY FOR SNWFL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE TYPES OF RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
WIDESPREAD 20 INCH TOTALS. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL FNT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL NOT MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNWFL AND
RA...BUT NEAR FREEZING AIR AND AIR IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
INTENSE LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE SNWFL
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE...BUT FARTHER NW COULD SEE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERED TOTALS. FOR THESE REASON I TENDED TO KEEP
SNWFL TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITHOUT DRAMATIC
INCREASES. THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SRN NH AND THE MONADNOCKS...WHERE
STRONG ELY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z
TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT
TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE
OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING.

THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND NEXT
TUESDAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
IN SRN NH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME EARLY TUE.
SNWFL RATES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUE. STRONG NELY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...REACHING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNWFL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED...WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL TURN NELY AND GRADUALLY BUILD
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 25-30 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER
PLATFORMS OF MISM1 AND IOSN3.

LONG TERM...

WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET
OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER ARE LIKELY. AT
PORTLAND HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY...9.1FT AT 453PM
TUESDAY...AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/SCHWIBS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 260326 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD.
POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE
STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH
BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO
ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453PM TUESDAY
AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 260326 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD.
POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE
STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH
BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO
ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453PM TUESDAY
AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CORRECT A FEW HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LEADING TO A COLD
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW
ZERO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE COASTAL STORM/ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD.
POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE
STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH
BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO
ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453PM TUESDAY
AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 252340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CORRECT A FEW HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH A CLEAR SKY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LEADING TO A COLD
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW
ZERO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE COASTAL STORM/ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW NORTHWARD.
POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE
STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS AS THE TROUGH
BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS STALLING IS KEY TO THE
AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO
ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453PM TUESDAY
AND 9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252051
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

CURTIS...EVERYTHING BUT THE STORM
HANES...THE STORM




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252051
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

CURTIS...EVERYTHING BUT THE STORM
HANES...THE STORM





000
FXUS61 KGYX 252050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CURTIS/HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANES
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CURTIS/HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251502
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1002 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10AM UPDATE... COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SNOW SQUALLS HAVE
REACHED THE COAST. AT THIS POINT MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE COLD AIR.

7 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NH AT THIS HOUR AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY 9 AM OR SO. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS MAY BE EMBEDDED.
THEREAFTER...JUST COLD AND WINDY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A TIME ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPORADIC COVERAGE...MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED IS ON STRONG LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE.

STRONG S/WV TROF EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY WILL DEPART
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. UPON REACHING THE RICH
BAROCLINICITY OFFERED BY THE WARM ATLANTIC...THIS LOW PRES WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. DROPPING SOME 20 MB IN 24 HOURS
THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL
S/WV IS FORECAST TO DIG S TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS TIME
FOR THE UPSTREAM KICKER TO CATCH UP AND PHASE WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM LATE MON. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN...STALL...AND PERHAPS
LOOP THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND...PROLONGING IMPACTS AS WELL.

CONSIDERING HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...MODEL CLUSTERING ON QPF
IS FAIRLY TIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL BRING AT LEAST 0.60
INCHES QPF TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ALSO
BRING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE N OF THE BORDER. THIS IS A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM...THE
FIRST HALF OF TUE...STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. GEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ACTUALLY REACH -6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR
THE U WIND. THIS TYPE OF MAGNITUDE FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
USUALLY FOCUS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES...WITH
DOWNSLOPE PRECIP SHADOWING TO THE NW OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO SOME
QPF MAY BE LOST TO THIS FOR PARTS OF GRAFTON AND COOS
COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH OF THOSE ZONES SEE HIGH ENOUGH QPF TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRES WILL BE OCCLUDING AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITHOUT HAVING A BETTER IDEA OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS OCCURS. BUT IN GENERAL...A HEAVY BAND
OF SN WILL LIFT N THRU THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF INTENSE
WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL BE TUE MORNING...IMPACTING THE COMMUTE...AND
SNWFL MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOURS AT TIMES. ONCE WAA LIFTS N OF THE
AREA THE QUESTIONS BECOMES WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION CAN LINGER OVER
THE AREA AND IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SATURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE
ACCUMULATING SNWFL. MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGEST A BACK BENT WARM
FNT ALOFT...AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURES LIKE THIS
CAN THROW A WRENCH IF YOU TRY AND GET TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME
RANGE. TUE NIGHT INTO WED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THRU THE GULF OF
ME...AND LIGHT SNWFL WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE LAST MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WIND FORECAST. STRONG..BUT
WEAKENING...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
GFS FORECAST IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING...BUT DEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. IF MIXING TO ABOUT H9 IS ASSUMED...A PERIOD OF 40 TO 45
KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO GO WITH ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING
SAID...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD OR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
CYCLE TO ANALYZE TO ASSESS ANY TRENDS IN THIS WIND FORECAST FOR
ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE WATCH HEADLINES.

PUTTING ALL THIS INFORMATION TOGETHER YIELDS A WIDESPREAD DOUBLE
DIGIT SNWFL FOR THE AREA. BASED ON HEIGHT FIELDS...WINDS
ALOFT...AND EXPECTED QPF ENHANCEMENT...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS SRN NH AND ESPECIALLY THE MONADNOCKS.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM A MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED THRU THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT...THOUGH ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST TO MAKE NAILING
DOWN EXACT WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SNWFL LOVERS THRU THE END
OF JAN...OFFERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO BOOKEND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. VFR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GALE THE OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY
AS CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. GALES LIKELY FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A LOW
PROB OF STORM FORCE GUSTS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251201
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NH AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 9 AM OR SO. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD FALL THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS MAY BE EMBEDDED.
THEREAFTER...JUST COLD AND WINDY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A TIME ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPORADIC COVERAGE...MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED IS ON STRONG LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE.

STRONG S/WV TROF EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY WILL DEPART
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. UPON REACHING THE RICH
BAROCLINICITY OFFERED BY THE WARM ATLANTIC...THIS LOW PRES WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. DROPPING SOME 20 MB IN 24 HOURS
THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL
S/WV IS FORECAST TO DIG S TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS TIME
FOR THE UPSTREAM KICKER TO CATCH UP AND PHASE WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM LATE MON. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN...STALL...AND PERHAPS
LOOP THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND...PROLONGING IMPACTS AS WELL.

CONSIDERING HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...MODEL CLUSTERING ON QPF
IS FAIRLY TIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL BRING AT LEAST 0.60
INCHES QPF TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ALSO
BRING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE N OF THE BORDER. THIS IS A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM...THE
FIRST HALF OF TUE...STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. GEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ACTUALLY REACH -6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR
THE U WIND. THIS TYPE OF MAGNITUDE FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
USUALLY FOCUS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES...WITH
DOWNSLOPE PRECIP SHADOWING TO THE NW OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO SOME
QPF MAY BE LOST TO THIS FOR PARTS OF GRAFTON AND COOS
COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH OF THOSE ZONES SEE HIGH ENOUGH QPF TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRES WILL BE OCCLUDING AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITHOUT HAVING A BETTER IDEA OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS OCCURS. BUT IN GENERAL...A HEAVY BAND
OF SN WILL LIFT N THRU THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF INTENSE
WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL BE TUE MORNING...IMPACTING THE COMMUTE...AND
SNWFL MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOURS AT TIMES. ONCE WAA LIFTS N OF THE
AREA THE QUESTIONS BECOMES WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION CAN LINGER OVER
THE AREA AND IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SATURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE
ACCUMULATING SNWFL. MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGEST A BACK BENT WARM
FNT ALOFT...AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURES LIKE THIS
CAN THROW A WRENCH IF YOU TRY AND GET TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME
RANGE. TUE NIGHT INTO WED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THRU THE GULF OF
ME...AND LIGHT SNWFL WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE LAST MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WIND FORECAST. STRONG..BUT
WEAKENING...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
GFS FORECAST IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING...BUT DEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. IF MIXING TO ABOUT H9 IS ASSUMED...A PERIOD OF 40 TO 45
KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO GO WITH ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING
SAID...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD OR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
CYCLE TO ANALYZE TO ASSESS ANY TRENDS IN THIS WIND FORECAST FOR
ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE WATCH HEADLINES.

PUTTING ALL THIS INFORMATION TOGETHER YIELDS A WIDESPREAD DOUBLE
DIGIT SNWFL FOR THE AREA. BASED ON HEIGHT FIELDS...WINDS
ALOFT...AND EXPECTED QPF ENHANCEMENT...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS SRN NH AND ESPECIALLY THE MONADNOCKS.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM A MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED THRU THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT...THOUGH ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST TO MAKE NAILING
DOWN EXACT WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SNWFL LOVERS THRU THE END
OF JAN...OFFERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO BOOKEND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. VFR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GALE THE OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY
AS CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. GALES LIKELY FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A LOW
PROB OF STORM FORCE GUSTS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO
STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVE ACTION. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF NE FLOW...MINOR OR NEAR-MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE HIGH SEAS EXPECTED...SPLASH OVER AND EROSION LOOKS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY S OF PORTLAND.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251201
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NH AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 9 AM OR SO. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD FALL THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS MAY BE EMBEDDED.
THEREAFTER...JUST COLD AND WINDY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A TIME ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPORADIC COVERAGE...MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED IS ON STRONG LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE.

STRONG S/WV TROF EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY WILL DEPART
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. UPON REACHING THE RICH
BAROCLINICITY OFFERED BY THE WARM ATLANTIC...THIS LOW PRES WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. DROPPING SOME 20 MB IN 24 HOURS
THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL
S/WV IS FORECAST TO DIG S TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS TIME
FOR THE UPSTREAM KICKER TO CATCH UP AND PHASE WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM LATE MON. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN...STALL...AND PERHAPS
LOOP THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND...PROLONGING IMPACTS AS WELL.

CONSIDERING HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...MODEL CLUSTERING ON QPF
IS FAIRLY TIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL BRING AT LEAST 0.60
INCHES QPF TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ALSO
BRING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE N OF THE BORDER. THIS IS A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM...THE
FIRST HALF OF TUE...STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. GEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ACTUALLY REACH -6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR
THE U WIND. THIS TYPE OF MAGNITUDE FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
USUALLY FOCUS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES...WITH
DOWNSLOPE PRECIP SHADOWING TO THE NW OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO SOME
QPF MAY BE LOST TO THIS FOR PARTS OF GRAFTON AND COOS
COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH OF THOSE ZONES SEE HIGH ENOUGH QPF TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRES WILL BE OCCLUDING AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITHOUT HAVING A BETTER IDEA OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS OCCURS. BUT IN GENERAL...A HEAVY BAND
OF SN WILL LIFT N THRU THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF INTENSE
WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL BE TUE MORNING...IMPACTING THE COMMUTE...AND
SNWFL MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOURS AT TIMES. ONCE WAA LIFTS N OF THE
AREA THE QUESTIONS BECOMES WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION CAN LINGER OVER
THE AREA AND IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SATURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE
ACCUMULATING SNWFL. MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGEST A BACK BENT WARM
FNT ALOFT...AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURES LIKE THIS
CAN THROW A WRENCH IF YOU TRY AND GET TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME
RANGE. TUE NIGHT INTO WED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THRU THE GULF OF
ME...AND LIGHT SNWFL WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE LAST MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WIND FORECAST. STRONG..BUT
WEAKENING...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
GFS FORECAST IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING...BUT DEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. IF MIXING TO ABOUT H9 IS ASSUMED...A PERIOD OF 40 TO 45
KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO GO WITH ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING
SAID...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD OR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
CYCLE TO ANALYZE TO ASSESS ANY TRENDS IN THIS WIND FORECAST FOR
ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE WATCH HEADLINES.

PUTTING ALL THIS INFORMATION TOGETHER YIELDS A WIDESPREAD DOUBLE
DIGIT SNWFL FOR THE AREA. BASED ON HEIGHT FIELDS...WINDS
ALOFT...AND EXPECTED QPF ENHANCEMENT...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS SRN NH AND ESPECIALLY THE MONADNOCKS.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM A MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED THRU THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT...THOUGH ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST TO MAKE NAILING
DOWN EXACT WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SNWFL LOVERS THRU THE END
OF JAN...OFFERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO BOOKEND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. VFR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GALE THE OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY
AS CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. GALES LIKELY FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A LOW
PROB OF STORM FORCE GUSTS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO
STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVE ACTION. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF NE FLOW...MINOR OR NEAR-MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE HIGH SEAS EXPECTED...SPLASH OVER AND EROSION LOOKS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY S OF PORTLAND.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250937
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS MAY BE EMBEDDED.
THEREAFTER...JUST COLD AND WINDY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A TIME ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPORADIC COVERAGE...MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED IS ON STRONG LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE.

STRONG S/WV TROF EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY WILL DEPART
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. UPON REACHING THE RICH
BAROCLINICITY OFFERED BY THE WARM ATLANTIC...THIS LOW PRES WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. DROPPING SOME 20 MB IN 24 HOURS
THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL
S/WV IS FORECAST TO DIG S TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS TIME
FOR THE UPSTREAM KICKER TO CATCH UP AND PHASE WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM LATE MON. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN...STALL...AND PERHAPS
LOOP THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND...PROLONGING IMPACTS AS WELL.

CONSIDERING HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...MODEL CLUSTERING ON QPF
IS FAIRLY TIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL BRING AT LEAST 0.60
INCHES QPF TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ALSO
BRING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE N OF THE BORDER. THIS IS A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM...THE
FIRST HALF OF TUE...STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. GEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ACTUALLY REACH -6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR
THE U WIND. THIS TYPE OF MAGNITUDE FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
USUALLY FOCUS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES...WITH
DOWNSLOPE PRECIP SHADOWING TO THE NW OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO SOME
QPF MAY BE LOST TO THIS FOR PARTS OF GRAFTON AND COOS
COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH OF THOSE ZONES SEE HIGH ENOUGH QPF TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRES WILL BE OCCLUDING AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITHOUT HAVING A BETTER IDEA OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS OCCURS. BUT IN GENERAL...A HEAVY BAND
OF SN WILL LIFT N THRU THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF INTENSE
WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL BE TUE MORNING...IMPACTING THE COMMUTE...AND
SNWFL MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOURS AT TIMES. ONCE WAA LIFTS N OF THE
AREA THE QUESTIONS BECOMES WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION CAN LINGER OVER
THE AREA AND IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SATURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE
ACCUMULATING SNWFL. MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGEST A BACK BENT WARM
FNT ALOFT...AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURES LIKE THIS
CAN THROW A WRENCH IF YOU TRY AND GET TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME
RANGE. TUE NIGHT INTO WED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THRU THE GULF OF
ME...AND LIGHT SNWFL WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE LAST MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WIND FORECAST. STRONG..BUT
WEAKENING...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
GFS FORECAST IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING...BUT DEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. IF MIXING TO ABOUT H9 IS ASSUMED...A PERIOD OF 40 TO 45
KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO GO WITH ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING
SAID...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD OR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
CYCLE TO ANALYZE TO ASSESS ANY TRENDS IN THIS WIND FORECAST FOR
ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE WATCH HEADLINES.

PUTTING ALL THIS INFORMATION TOGETHER YIELDS A WIDESPREAD DOUBLE
DIGIT SNWFL FOR THE AREA. BASED ON HEIGHT FIELDS...WINDS
ALOFT...AND EXPECTED QPF ENHANCEMENT...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS SRN NH AND ESPECIALLY THE MONADNOCKS.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM A MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED THRU THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT...THOUGH ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST TO MAKE NAILING
DOWN EXACT WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SNWFL LOVERS THRU THE END
OF JAN...OFFERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO BOOKEND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. VFR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GALE THE OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY
AS CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. GALES LIKELY FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A LOW
PROB OF STORM FORCE GUSTS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO
STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVE ACTION. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF NE FLOW...MINOR OR NEAR-MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE HIGH SEAS EXPECTED...SPLASH OVER AND EROSION LOOKS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY S OF PORTLAND.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250937
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS MAY BE EMBEDDED.
THEREAFTER...JUST COLD AND WINDY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A TIME ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPORADIC COVERAGE...MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED IS ON STRONG LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE.

STRONG S/WV TROF EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY WILL DEPART
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. UPON REACHING THE RICH
BAROCLINICITY OFFERED BY THE WARM ATLANTIC...THIS LOW PRES WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. DROPPING SOME 20 MB IN 24 HOURS
THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL
S/WV IS FORECAST TO DIG S TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS TIME
FOR THE UPSTREAM KICKER TO CATCH UP AND PHASE WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM LATE MON. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN...STALL...AND PERHAPS
LOOP THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND...PROLONGING IMPACTS AS WELL.

CONSIDERING HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...MODEL CLUSTERING ON QPF
IS FAIRLY TIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL BRING AT LEAST 0.60
INCHES QPF TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ALSO
BRING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE N OF THE BORDER. THIS IS A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM...THE
FIRST HALF OF TUE...STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. GEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ACTUALLY REACH -6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR
THE U WIND. THIS TYPE OF MAGNITUDE FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
USUALLY FOCUS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES...WITH
DOWNSLOPE PRECIP SHADOWING TO THE NW OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO SOME
QPF MAY BE LOST TO THIS FOR PARTS OF GRAFTON AND COOS
COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH OF THOSE ZONES SEE HIGH ENOUGH QPF TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRES WILL BE OCCLUDING AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITHOUT HAVING A BETTER IDEA OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS OCCURS. BUT IN GENERAL...A HEAVY BAND
OF SN WILL LIFT N THRU THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF INTENSE
WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL BE TUE MORNING...IMPACTING THE COMMUTE...AND
SNWFL MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOURS AT TIMES. ONCE WAA LIFTS N OF THE
AREA THE QUESTIONS BECOMES WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION CAN LINGER OVER
THE AREA AND IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SATURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE
ACCUMULATING SNWFL. MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGEST A BACK BENT WARM
FNT ALOFT...AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURES LIKE THIS
CAN THROW A WRENCH IF YOU TRY AND GET TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME
RANGE. TUE NIGHT INTO WED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THRU THE GULF OF
ME...AND LIGHT SNWFL WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE LAST MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WIND FORECAST. STRONG..BUT
WEAKENING...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
GFS FORECAST IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING...BUT DEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. IF MIXING TO ABOUT H9 IS ASSUMED...A PERIOD OF 40 TO 45
KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO GO WITH ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING
SAID...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD OR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
CYCLE TO ANALYZE TO ASSESS ANY TRENDS IN THIS WIND FORECAST FOR
ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE WATCH HEADLINES.

PUTTING ALL THIS INFORMATION TOGETHER YIELDS A WIDESPREAD DOUBLE
DIGIT SNWFL FOR THE AREA. BASED ON HEIGHT FIELDS...WINDS
ALOFT...AND EXPECTED QPF ENHANCEMENT...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS SRN NH AND ESPECIALLY THE MONADNOCKS.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM A MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED THRU THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT...THOUGH ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST TO MAKE NAILING
DOWN EXACT WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SNWFL LOVERS THRU THE END
OF JAN...OFFERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO BOOKEND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. VFR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GALE THE OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY
AS CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. GALES LIKELY FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A LOW
PROB OF STORM FORCE GUSTS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO
STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVE ACTION. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF NE FLOW...MINOR OR NEAR-MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE HIGH SEAS EXPECTED...SPLASH OVER AND EROSION LOOKS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY S OF PORTLAND.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250937
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS MAY BE EMBEDDED.
THEREAFTER...JUST COLD AND WINDY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A TIME ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPORADIC COVERAGE...MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED IS ON STRONG LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE.

STRONG S/WV TROF EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY WILL DEPART
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. UPON REACHING THE RICH
BAROCLINICITY OFFERED BY THE WARM ATLANTIC...THIS LOW PRES WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. DROPPING SOME 20 MB IN 24 HOURS
THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL
S/WV IS FORECAST TO DIG S TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS TIME
FOR THE UPSTREAM KICKER TO CATCH UP AND PHASE WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM LATE MON. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN...STALL...AND PERHAPS
LOOP THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND...PROLONGING IMPACTS AS WELL.

CONSIDERING HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...MODEL CLUSTERING ON QPF
IS FAIRLY TIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL BRING AT LEAST 0.60
INCHES QPF TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ALSO
BRING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE N OF THE BORDER. THIS IS A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM...THE
FIRST HALF OF TUE...STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. GEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ACTUALLY REACH -6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR
THE U WIND. THIS TYPE OF MAGNITUDE FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
USUALLY FOCUS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES...WITH
DOWNSLOPE PRECIP SHADOWING TO THE NW OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO SOME
QPF MAY BE LOST TO THIS FOR PARTS OF GRAFTON AND COOS
COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH OF THOSE ZONES SEE HIGH ENOUGH QPF TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRES WILL BE OCCLUDING AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITHOUT HAVING A BETTER IDEA OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS OCCURS. BUT IN GENERAL...A HEAVY BAND
OF SN WILL LIFT N THRU THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF INTENSE
WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL BE TUE MORNING...IMPACTING THE COMMUTE...AND
SNWFL MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOURS AT TIMES. ONCE WAA LIFTS N OF THE
AREA THE QUESTIONS BECOMES WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION CAN LINGER OVER
THE AREA AND IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SATURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE
ACCUMULATING SNWFL. MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGEST A BACK BENT WARM
FNT ALOFT...AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURES LIKE THIS
CAN THROW A WRENCH IF YOU TRY AND GET TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME
RANGE. TUE NIGHT INTO WED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THRU THE GULF OF
ME...AND LIGHT SNWFL WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE LAST MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WIND FORECAST. STRONG..BUT
WEAKENING...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
GFS FORECAST IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING...BUT DEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. IF MIXING TO ABOUT H9 IS ASSUMED...A PERIOD OF 40 TO 45
KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO GO WITH ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING
SAID...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD OR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
CYCLE TO ANALYZE TO ASSESS ANY TRENDS IN THIS WIND FORECAST FOR
ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE WATCH HEADLINES.

PUTTING ALL THIS INFORMATION TOGETHER YIELDS A WIDESPREAD DOUBLE
DIGIT SNWFL FOR THE AREA. BASED ON HEIGHT FIELDS...WINDS
ALOFT...AND EXPECTED QPF ENHANCEMENT...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS SRN NH AND ESPECIALLY THE MONADNOCKS.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM A MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED THRU THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT...THOUGH ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST TO MAKE NAILING
DOWN EXACT WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SNWFL LOVERS THRU THE END
OF JAN...OFFERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO BOOKEND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. VFR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GALE THE OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY
AS CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. GALES LIKELY FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A LOW
PROB OF STORM FORCE GUSTS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO
STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVE ACTION. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF NE FLOW...MINOR OR NEAR-MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE HIGH SEAS EXPECTED...SPLASH OVER AND EROSION LOOKS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY S OF PORTLAND.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250937
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS MAY BE EMBEDDED.
THEREAFTER...JUST COLD AND WINDY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A TIME ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPORADIC COVERAGE...MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED IS ON STRONG LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE.

STRONG S/WV TROF EXITING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY WILL DEPART
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. UPON REACHING THE RICH
BAROCLINICITY OFFERED BY THE WARM ATLANTIC...THIS LOW PRES WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. DROPPING SOME 20 MB IN 24 HOURS
THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL
S/WV IS FORECAST TO DIG S TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS TIME
FOR THE UPSTREAM KICKER TO CATCH UP AND PHASE WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM LATE MON. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN...STALL...AND PERHAPS
LOOP THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND...PROLONGING IMPACTS AS WELL.

CONSIDERING HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...MODEL CLUSTERING ON QPF
IS FAIRLY TIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL BRING AT LEAST 0.60
INCHES QPF TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ALSO
BRING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE N OF THE BORDER. THIS IS A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. DURING THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM...THE
FIRST HALF OF TUE...STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. GEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ACTUALLY REACH -6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR
THE U WIND. THIS TYPE OF MAGNITUDE FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
USUALLY FOCUS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES...WITH
DOWNSLOPE PRECIP SHADOWING TO THE NW OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. SO SOME
QPF MAY BE LOST TO THIS FOR PARTS OF GRAFTON AND COOS
COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH OF THOSE ZONES SEE HIGH ENOUGH QPF TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRES WILL BE OCCLUDING AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITHOUT HAVING A BETTER IDEA OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS OCCURS. BUT IN GENERAL...A HEAVY BAND
OF SN WILL LIFT N THRU THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF INTENSE
WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL BE TUE MORNING...IMPACTING THE COMMUTE...AND
SNWFL MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOURS AT TIMES. ONCE WAA LIFTS N OF THE
AREA THE QUESTIONS BECOMES WHETHER ANY DEFORMATION CAN LINGER OVER
THE AREA AND IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SATURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE
ACCUMULATING SNWFL. MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGEST A BACK BENT WARM
FNT ALOFT...AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURES LIKE THIS
CAN THROW A WRENCH IF YOU TRY AND GET TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME
RANGE. TUE NIGHT INTO WED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THRU THE GULF OF
ME...AND LIGHT SNWFL WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE LAST MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WIND FORECAST. STRONG..BUT
WEAKENING...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
GFS FORECAST IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING...BUT DEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. IF MIXING TO ABOUT H9 IS ASSUMED...A PERIOD OF 40 TO 45
KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO GO WITH ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING
SAID...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD OR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
CYCLE TO ANALYZE TO ASSESS ANY TRENDS IN THIS WIND FORECAST FOR
ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO THE WATCH HEADLINES.

PUTTING ALL THIS INFORMATION TOGETHER YIELDS A WIDESPREAD DOUBLE
DIGIT SNWFL FOR THE AREA. BASED ON HEIGHT FIELDS...WINDS
ALOFT...AND EXPECTED QPF ENHANCEMENT...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS SRN NH AND ESPECIALLY THE MONADNOCKS.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM A MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED THRU THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT...THOUGH ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST TO MAKE NAILING
DOWN EXACT WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SNWFL LOVERS THRU THE END
OF JAN...OFFERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO BOOKEND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. VFR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GALE THE OCEAN WATERS FOR TODAY
AS CAA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT. GALES LIKELY FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A LOW
PROB OF STORM FORCE GUSTS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO
STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVE ACTION. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF NE FLOW...MINOR OR NEAR-MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE HIGH SEAS EXPECTED...SPLASH OVER AND EROSION LOOKS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY S OF PORTLAND.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250335
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1030PM UPDATE...
FINALLY ABLE TO DROP WINTER HEADLINES AS THE LAST OF THE SNOW
EXITS THE MIDCOAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

830PM UPDATE...
SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS EVENING. HAVE DROPPED THE REST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF WESTERN MAINE FROM THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. STILL A LITTLE MORE ACCUMULATION ALONG THE MIDCOAST
BEFORE IT ENDS THERE AS WELL.

730PM UPDATE...
FINALLY SEEING THE END OF THE SNOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE DROPPED THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR HILLSBOROUGH,
CHESHIRE, MERRIMACK, AND BELKNAP COUNTIES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
THE REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AND START CHIPPING
AWAY AT THE MAINE HEADLINES AFTER THAT. HAVE FURTHER REFINED FINAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON LATEST REPORTS AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

6PM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST. FINAL BAND HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FIRST
REPORT OUT OF THIS BAND WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN 45 MINUTES... SO
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST... MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDCOAST WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST
AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. HAVE
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER
ENDING TO THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A LITTLE
BIT AS WELL... BUT AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME THERE WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST NUMBERS.

5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250128
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
828 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
830PM UPDATE...
SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS EVENING. HAVE DROPPED THE REST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF WESTERN MAINE FROM THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. STILL A LITTLE MORE ACCUMULATION ALONG THE MIDCOAST
BEFORE IT ENDS THERE AS WELL.

730PM UPDATE...
FINALLY SEEING THE END OF THE SNOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE DROPPED THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR HILLSBOROUGH,
CHESHIRE, MERRIMACK, AND BELKNAP COUNTIES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
THE REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AND START CHIPPING
AWAY AT THE MAINE HEADLINES AFTER THAT. HAVE FURTHER REFINED FINAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON LATEST REPORTS AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

6PM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST. FINAL BAND HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FIRST
REPORT OUT OF THIS BAND WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN 45 MINUTES... SO
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST... MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDCOAST WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST
AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. HAVE
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER
ENDING TO THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A LITTLE
BIT AS WELL... BUT AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME THERE WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST NUMBERS.

5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022-
     026>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250128
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
828 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
830PM UPDATE...
SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS EVENING. HAVE DROPPED THE REST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF WESTERN MAINE FROM THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. STILL A LITTLE MORE ACCUMULATION ALONG THE MIDCOAST
BEFORE IT ENDS THERE AS WELL.

730PM UPDATE...
FINALLY SEEING THE END OF THE SNOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE DROPPED THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR HILLSBOROUGH,
CHESHIRE, MERRIMACK, AND BELKNAP COUNTIES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
THE REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AND START CHIPPING
AWAY AT THE MAINE HEADLINES AFTER THAT. HAVE FURTHER REFINED FINAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON LATEST REPORTS AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

6PM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST. FINAL BAND HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FIRST
REPORT OUT OF THIS BAND WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN 45 MINUTES... SO
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST... MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDCOAST WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST
AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. HAVE
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER
ENDING TO THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A LITTLE
BIT AS WELL... BUT AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME THERE WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST NUMBERS.

5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022-
     026>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
731 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
730PM UPDATE...
FINALLY SEEING THE END OF THE SNOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE DROPPED THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR HILLSBOROUGH,
CHESHIRE, MERRIMACK, AND BELKNAP COUNTIES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
THE REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AND START CHIPPING
AWAY AT THE MAINE HEADLINES AFTER THAT. HAVE FURTHER REFINED FINAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON LATEST REPORTS AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

6PM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST. FINAL BAND HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FIRST
REPORT OUT OF THIS BAND WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN 45 MINUTES... SO
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST... MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDCOAST WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST
AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. HAVE
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER
ENDING TO THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A LITTLE
BIT AS WELL... BUT AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME THERE WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST NUMBERS.

5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ014-
     018>021.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
731 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
730PM UPDATE...
FINALLY SEEING THE END OF THE SNOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE DROPPED THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR HILLSBOROUGH,
CHESHIRE, MERRIMACK, AND BELKNAP COUNTIES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
THE REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AND START CHIPPING
AWAY AT THE MAINE HEADLINES AFTER THAT. HAVE FURTHER REFINED FINAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON LATEST REPORTS AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

6PM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST. FINAL BAND HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FIRST
REPORT OUT OF THIS BAND WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN 45 MINUTES... SO
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST... MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDCOAST WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST
AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. HAVE
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER
ENDING TO THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A LITTLE
BIT AS WELL... BUT AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME THERE WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST NUMBERS.

5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ014-
     018>021.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...CURTIS/HANES
MARINE...CURTIS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 242254
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
554 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST. FINAL BAND HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FIRST
REPORT OUT OF THIS BAND WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN 45 MINUTES... SO
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST... MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDCOAST WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST
AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. HAVE
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER
ENDING TO THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A LITTLE
BIT AS WELL... BUT AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME THERE WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST NUMBERS.

5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ014-
     018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 242254
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
554 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EAST. FINAL BAND HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. FIRST
REPORT OUT OF THIS BAND WAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN 45 MINUTES... SO
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. FURTHER EAST... MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDCOAST WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST
AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. HAVE
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT A LITTLE SLOWER
ENDING TO THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A LITTLE
BIT AS WELL... BUT AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME THERE WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST NUMBERS.

5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ014-
     018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 242152
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
452 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ014-
     018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 242152
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
452 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
5PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE JUST BEGUN ARRIVING.
LATEST REPORTS ARE OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SO FAR BUT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE BACK EDGE OF
SNOW FORMING INTO A MORE INTENSE LINE AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BIT OF SNOW BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START
DROPPING SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH. IN
BETWEEN THIS BAND AND THE COASTAL BANDS THERE MAY EXIST POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ014-
     018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 242049
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
349 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE DYNAMIC COASTAL
STORM MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/..
AT 3PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST.. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN AS
THE LOW PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 1"/HR SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DUAL
POL RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MELTING ZONE WELL OFF SHORE...
KEEPING THE PTYPE ALL SNOW... HOWEVER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING
FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THIS COMING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A DEEP TROUGH IS
CARVED OUT AS BLOCKING SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SPACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ANY
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST... HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE CENTER JUST
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF STEERS IT INSIDE. THE EURO
ALSO FAVORS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO LINGER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SOME OTHER MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW CENTER JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD TRANSLATE COULD INTO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
AN UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES THE SYSTEM AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
MOVES QUICKLY NNE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

BASED ON BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR
BETTER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS DOWNEAST WILL SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH SHOULD
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM... LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PWM...RKD...AND PSM AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. MHT AND CON
WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE
COASTAL SITES RETURNING TO MVFR BY 09Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR MONDAY WITH MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LIKELY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW.

LONG TERM...LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR
THE BAYS AND GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL
LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND E.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

CURTIS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241751
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE... DUAL POL RADAR AND REPORTS INDICATE SOME SLEET
MIXING IN IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH. WHILE THE BACK END OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NH, THE LOW ITSELF CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK. IN MAINE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED TEMPS AND ADDED SLEET TO SE NH. HAVE INCREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDCOAST WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS MOST
LIKELY.

9AM UPDATE... SNOW HAS JUST
MOVED INTO GRAY AND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT COLDER. HAVE NOT CHANGED SNOW
TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SNOW RATIO AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN THE STICKING POINT FOR
THE FORECAST.

7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241751
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE... DUAL POL RADAR AND REPORTS INDICATE SOME SLEET
MIXING IN IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NH. WHILE THE BACK END OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NH, THE LOW ITSELF CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK. IN MAINE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED TEMPS AND ADDED SLEET TO SE NH. HAVE INCREASED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDCOAST WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS MOST
LIKELY.

9AM UPDATE... SNOW HAS JUST
MOVED INTO GRAY AND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT COLDER. HAVE NOT CHANGED SNOW
TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SNOW RATIO AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN THE STICKING POINT FOR
THE FORECAST.

7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241443
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
943 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO GRAY AND FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. UPDATED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT
COLDER. HAVE NOT CHANGED SNOW TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SNOW RATIO
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN THE STICKING POINT FOR THE FORECAST.

7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241443
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
943 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO GRAY AND FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. UPDATED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT
COLDER. HAVE NOT CHANGED SNOW TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SNOW RATIO
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN THE STICKING POINT FOR THE FORECAST.

7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241208
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
708 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241208
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
708 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY
MINOR CHANGES IN POP...QPF...AND SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SNOW HAS REACHED SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240914
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240914
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240914
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240914
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND EXIT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD END UP MOVING
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ON IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE DELAWARE COAST AS OF 4 AM. A
PRETTY EXPANSIVE SNOW SHIELD IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CONNECTICUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AND LIKELY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE IF NOT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS. ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EASTWARD A BIT...AND
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT CHANGE. ONE THING IS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...AND THAT IS THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ONE TOWN MAY
HAVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER TOWN 10 MILES TO THE WEST
MAY END UP WITH NEXT TO NOTHING. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST HRRR POPS FOR THE
FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS BACK EDGE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. TODAY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A CASE OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT OUR MOUNTAINS ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE SNOW-FREE AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB +PNA PATTERN WILL DISAPPEAR AS
THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND BOTH UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER ERN NO AMERICA AND ALLOW COLD CORE OF
AIR TO DROP EQUATORWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF WEEK. SO...COLD TO START THE EXTENDED...MAYBE A LITTLE WARM UP
TO AROUND NORMAL LATE WEEK...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER NEXT
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BE COLD WITH ENOUGH WIND SUNDAY EVE TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR -20 IN THE N...AND BLO ZERO EVERYWHERE
ELSE...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL COLD
AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE N...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 10-20 F
RANGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINA COAST....DEPENDING ON
WHETHER YOU FOLLOW THE EURO OR GFS. THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW AND INTENSIFYING THE
SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ENOUGH TO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE CWA. THE GFS KEEPS THE SFC FLOW
FURTHER E AND INTENSIFIES LATER...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS SNOW AND
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE ERN ZONES.
GIVEN THE SOLID PERFORMANCE OF THE EURO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION
AND HAVE SPREAD CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. STILL IT LOOKS
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...SO ANY SNOW WILL
HAVE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIO.

SHOULD SEE NW WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGHS ON WED LIMITED TO THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 AGAIN. AS THAT INTENSE LOW HEADS NE THROUGH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR THUS...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER
NH/ME...AND A BIT OF WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON THU INTO FRI...BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES AND BRINGS THE COLD BACK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TODAY...WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE BECOMING IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW BY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVE. POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW LATE MON INTO TUE EVENING...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR BY WED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR MOST WATERS AS COASTAL STORM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SCA LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS A GOOD BET SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS RIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
GALES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE S AND
E.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
AVOIDED TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AS
THE WINDS FROM THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT HAVE KICKED IN YET.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL VERY MINOR SPASHOVER.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240254
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
954 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY DEVELOPS
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
955 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

715 PM UPDATE: QUIET NIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO
NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY MORNING AND THEN CROSSES JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY LATE
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHIELD BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING OVER THIS SAME AREA AROUND THIS TIME. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE FOR A SHORT TIME. THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.

THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE NAM IS A BIT COLDER IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRODUCES A LITTLE
BIT MORE SNOW...AS DOES THE EURO. EXPECT THIS TO BE ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY AN ALL SNOW EVENT. EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ADVISORIES JUST INLAND.
IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO CHANGE EVEN A LITTLE BIT THE
SOLUTION WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
TURNING NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME... SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIP DOWN AT TIMES TO INTERACT WITH THESE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. THIS RESULTS IN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES
THIS WEEK THAT WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY... RESULTING
IN A SPAN OF COLDER WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN
THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM TRIES TO APPROACH THE
NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRANSLATES
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EAST. WE MAY STILL GET SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE
COAST... SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AT THE VERY
LEAST THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVER THE MIDCOAST. RIDGING BUILDS IN VERY QUICKLY BEFORE BEING
KICKED OUT ON THURSDAY BY WEAK BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A SUBTLE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE REBOUNDED FROM
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT... WE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EVEN
THOUGH SOME PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TRY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
30S. SNOW SHOULD END BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL TERMINAL MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ALSO. EXPECT GALE WARNINGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CASCO BAY
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE CALMER MONDAY BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TO GALE
LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 240022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
722 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY DEVELOPS
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE: QUIET NIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO
NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY MORNING AND THEN CROSSES JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY LATE
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHIELD BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING OVER THIS SAME AREA AROUND THIS TIME. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE FOR A SHORT TIME. THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.

THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE NAM IS A BIT COLDER IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRODUCES A LITTLE
BIT MORE SNOW...AS DOES THE EURO. EXPECT THIS TO BE ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY AN ALL SNOW EVENT. EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ADVISORIES JUST INLAND.
IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO CHANGE EVEN A LITTLE BIT THE
SOLUTION WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
TURNING NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME... SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIP DOWN AT TIMES TO INTERACT WITH THESE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. THIS RESULTS IN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES
THIS WEEK THAT WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY... RESULTING
IN A SPAN OF COLDER WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN
THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM TRIES TO APPROACH THE
NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRANSLATES
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EAST. WE MAY STILL GET SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE
COAST... SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AT THE VERY
LEAST THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVER THE MIDCOAST. RIDGING BUILDS IN VERY QUICKLY BEFORE BEING
KICKED OUT ON THURSDAY BY WEAK BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A SUBTLE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE REBOUNDED FROM
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT... WE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EVEN
THOUGH SOME PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TRY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
30S. SNOW SHOULD END BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL TERMINAL MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ALSO. EXPECT GALE WARNINGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CASCO BAY
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE CALMER MONDAY BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TO GALE
LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
722 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY DEVELOPS
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE: QUIET NIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO
NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY MORNING AND THEN CROSSES JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY LATE
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHIELD BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING OVER THIS SAME AREA AROUND THIS TIME. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE FOR A SHORT TIME. THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.

THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE NAM IS A BIT COLDER IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRODUCES A LITTLE
BIT MORE SNOW...AS DOES THE EURO. EXPECT THIS TO BE ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY AN ALL SNOW EVENT. EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ADVISORIES JUST INLAND.
IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO CHANGE EVEN A LITTLE BIT THE
SOLUTION WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
TURNING NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME... SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIP DOWN AT TIMES TO INTERACT WITH THESE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. THIS RESULTS IN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES
THIS WEEK THAT WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY... RESULTING
IN A SPAN OF COLDER WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN
THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM TRIES TO APPROACH THE
NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRANSLATES
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EAST. WE MAY STILL GET SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE
COAST... SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AT THE VERY
LEAST THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVER THE MIDCOAST. RIDGING BUILDS IN VERY QUICKLY BEFORE BEING
KICKED OUT ON THURSDAY BY WEAK BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A SUBTLE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE REBOUNDED FROM
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT... WE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EVEN
THOUGH SOME PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TRY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
30S. SNOW SHOULD END BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL TERMINAL MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ALSO. EXPECT GALE WARNINGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CASCO BAY
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE CALMER MONDAY BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TO GALE
LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 232023
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY DEVELOPS
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY MORNING AND THEN CROSSES JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY LATE
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHIELD BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING OVER THIS SAME AREA AROUND THIS TIME. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE FOR A SHORT TIME. THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.

THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE NAM IS A BIT COLDER IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRODUCES A LITTLE
BIT MORE SNOW...AS DOES THE EURO. EXPECT THIS TO BE ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY AN ALL SNOW EVENT. EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ADVISORIES JUST INLAND.
IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO CHANGE EVEN A LITTLE BIT THE
SOLUTION WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
TURNING NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME... SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIP DOWN AT TIMES TO INTERACT WITH THESE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. THIS RESULTS IN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES
THIS WEEK THAT WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY... RESULTING
IN A SPAN OF COLDER WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN
THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM TRIES TO APPROACH THE
NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRANSLATES
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EAST. WE MAY STILL GET SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE
COAST... SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AT THE VERY
LEAST THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVER THE MIDCOAST. RIDGING BUILDS IN VERY QUICKLY BEFORE BEING
KICKED OUT ON THURSDAY BY WEAK BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A SUBTLE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE REBOUNDED FROM
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT... WE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EVEN
THOUGH SOME PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TRY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
30S. SNOW SHOULD END BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL TERMINAL MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ALSO. EXPECT GALE WARNINGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CASCO BAY
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE CALMER MONDAY BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TO GALE
LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

POHL/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232023
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS GIVES WAY TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY DEVELOPS
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY MORNING AND THEN CROSSES JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY LATE
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHIELD BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING OVER THIS SAME AREA AROUND THIS TIME. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH AN HOUR OR MORE FOR A SHORT TIME. THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.

THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE NAM IS A BIT COLDER IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRODUCES A LITTLE
BIT MORE SNOW...AS DOES THE EURO. EXPECT THIS TO BE ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY AN ALL SNOW EVENT. EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ADVISORIES JUST INLAND.
IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO CHANGE EVEN A LITTLE BIT THE
SOLUTION WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
TURNING NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME... SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIP DOWN AT TIMES TO INTERACT WITH THESE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. THIS RESULTS IN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES
THIS WEEK THAT WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY... RESULTING
IN A SPAN OF COLDER WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN
THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM TRIES TO APPROACH THE
NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRANSLATES
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EAST. WE MAY STILL GET SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE
COAST... SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AT THE VERY
LEAST THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVER THE MIDCOAST. RIDGING BUILDS IN VERY QUICKLY BEFORE BEING
KICKED OUT ON THURSDAY BY WEAK BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A SUBTLE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE REBOUNDED FROM
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT... WE WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EVEN
THOUGH SOME PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TRY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
30S. SNOW SHOULD END BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KHIE
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL TERMINAL MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ALSO. EXPECT GALE WARNINGS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CASCO BAY
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE CALMER MONDAY BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TO GALE
LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ018>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ008-009-011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

POHL/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231722
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1222 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE EAST COAST TODAY. THIS GIVES WAY TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY
DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1220 PM UPDATE---
STILL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT. WILL
UPDATE PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WILL
BE SPENDING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING STORM FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE NAM CAME IN WITH A COLDER SOLUTION AND THE GFS IS
SIMILAR TO EARLIER RUNS. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO SEE THE EURO TO MAKE
FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.

---900 AM UPDATE---
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES THIS MORNING. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS THIS COVER WELL. WILL ONLY TWEAK MINOR
THINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CRESTS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND
SHOULD DELIVER AND FAIR WEATHER DAY. WAA CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE INTERIOR BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. BUMPED UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR TODAY AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE
SFC ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...THE
SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT WHILE INTENSIFYING. MODEL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW
TRACK...MOVING IT VERY NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
LAGGING A BIT AND ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO COME
UNDERNEATH/WESTWARD SOME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
MOVE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

AS FOR THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SNOWFALL FORECAST...HAVE
BLENDED SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...WITH MOST
WEIGHT GIVEN THE THE 00Z ECMWF /WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE MOST
NORTHWESTERN SOLUTION BUT IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY IT/S ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS/. THE RESULT IS AT LEAST A 50/50 CHANCE AT REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR SE
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE. THE BEST CHANCE AT
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNLESS THE
NW TREND CONTINUES AND MORE OF A MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE.

WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE A LITTLE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
SNEAK IN. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NH...THE SNOW
COULD BECOME WET ENOUGH FOR A TIME TO WEIGH DOWN TREE BRANCHES AND
POWER LINES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...JUST A BIT FURTHER WEST...PROBABLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OR JUST WEST OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE
IF ANY SNOW FALLS IN THE NORTHERN WHITES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS SHOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE OVER LAND WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PERHAPS SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THE BULK OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL END BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT ON THE MID COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUN COASTAL STORM DEPARTS THE AREA...BUT WE REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING THRU THE
AREA...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO SHSN REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN THE MTNS...BUT DOWNSLOPING OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY.

LATE IN THE DAY A NRN STREAM S/WV WILL BE DIVING THRU THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. CUTTING THRU THE OH VALLEY IT ARRIVES AT THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY MON. LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY ONCE OVER
THE WATER...EXPANDING THE PCPN SHIELD. AT THIS TIME THERE REMAIN
SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR N THIS PCPN MAKES IT.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POP ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MUCH OF THE OUTCOME DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRES TO AFFECT THE REGION SAT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A STRONG SHOT OF CAA IS LIKELY. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AT LEAST...AS COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT SHOULD ALSO
LEAVE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MOSTLY DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY EXCEPT PATCHES OF MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VFR TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING IN
SNOW. FURTHER INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER BUT STILL LIKELY
MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR BEHIND LOW PRES ON
SUN. NRN STREAM LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST MON. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF IFR IN SNWFL
ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL EXCEPT CASCO BAY LATE
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY EARLY SUN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRES. A NRN STREAM LOW PRES WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP MON...WITH A STRONG SHOT OF CAA IN ITS WAKE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON
BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR NHZ010-012>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...POHL
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231722
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1222 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE EAST COAST TODAY. THIS GIVES WAY TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUICKLY
DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1220 PM UPDATE---
STILL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT. WILL
UPDATE PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WILL
BE SPENDING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING STORM FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE NAM CAME IN WITH A COLDER SOLUTION AND THE GFS IS
SIMILAR TO EARLIER RUNS. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO SEE THE EURO TO MAKE
FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.

---900 AM UPDATE---
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES THIS MORNING. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS THIS COVER WELL. WILL ONLY TWEAK MINOR
THINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CRESTS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND
SHOULD DELIVER AND FAIR WEATHER DAY. WAA CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN
THE INTERIOR BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. BUMPED UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR TODAY AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE
SFC ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...THE
SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT WHILE INTENSIFYING. MODEL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW
TRACK...MOVING IT VERY NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
LAGGING A BIT AND ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO COME
UNDERNEATH/WESTWARD SOME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
MOVE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

AS FOR THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SNOWFALL FORECAST...HAVE
BLENDED SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...WITH MOST
WEIGHT GIVEN THE THE 00Z ECMWF /WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE MOST
NORTHWESTERN SOLUTION BUT IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY IT/S ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS/. THE RESULT IS AT LEAST A 50/50 CHANCE AT REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR SE
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE. THE BEST CHANCE AT
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNLESS THE
NW TREND CONTINUES AND MORE OF A MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE.

WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE A LITTLE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
SNEAK IN. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NH...THE SNOW
COULD BECOME WET ENOUGH FOR A TIME TO WEIGH DOWN TREE BRANCHES AND
POWER LINES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...JUST A BIT FURTHER WEST...PROBABLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OR JUST WEST OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE
IF ANY SNOW FALLS IN THE NORTHERN WHITES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS SHOULDN/T BE A BIG ISSUE OVER LAND WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PERHAPS SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THE BULK OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL END BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT ON THE MID COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUN COASTAL STORM DEPARTS THE AREA...BUT WE REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING THRU THE
AREA...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO SHSN REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN THE MTNS...BUT DOWNSLOPING OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY.

LATE IN THE DAY A NRN STREAM S/WV WILL BE DIVING THRU THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. CUTTING THRU THE OH VALLEY IT ARRIVES AT THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY MON. LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY ONCE OVER
THE WATER...EXPANDING THE PCPN SHIELD. AT THIS TIME THERE REMAIN
SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR N THIS PCPN MAKES IT.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POP ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MUCH OF THE OUTCOME DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRES TO AFFECT THE REGION SAT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A STRONG SHOT OF CAA IS LIKELY. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AT LEAST...AS COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT SHOULD ALSO
LEAVE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MOSTLY DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY EXCEPT PATCHES OF MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VFR TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING IN
SNOW. FURTHER INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER BUT STILL LIKELY
MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR BEHIND LOW PRES ON
SUN. NRN STREAM LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST MON. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF IFR IN SNWFL
ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL EXCEPT CASCO BAY LATE
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY EARLY SUN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRES. A NRN STREAM LOW PRES WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP MON...WITH A STRONG SHOT OF CAA IN ITS WAKE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON
BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR NHZ010-012>015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...POHL
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO





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