000
FXUS61 KGYX 222052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
452 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO RELECT CURRENT AND FORECAST NEAR TERM
WEATHER. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THIS
EVENING AND INCLUDED THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER IN BETTER LIFT. OCEAN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN CLOSE IN MUCH OF THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY POKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MARINE LAYER WILL INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON. MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BLOW OCEAN STRATUS OUT
OF MOST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES. WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPS TOMORROW WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MID COAST AREAS IN THE 60S.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A STEADY RAIN OVER-SPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SPLIT PATTERN WITH TROF LIFTING TO THE NE OVER NE CANADA AND
ANOTHER DIGGING TO TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SFC THE CD
FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU THEN LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE FNT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPR LVL TROF. THIS LOW THEN
TRACKS UP THE FNT PROVIDING HI PROB PRCP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NGT. THE
UPR LVL TROF CUTS OFF TO OUR S THEN SLOWLY LIFTS N SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING UP THE E COAST WHICH CONT THE PROB
PRCP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT. THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ME COAST AND
TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY WITH STILL CHC SHRA.

FINALLY THE CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS LIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE TO SEE
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO OUR WX SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. UPR LVL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND MILDER WX.

GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR IN SHRA FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NGT AND STILL MVFR/IFR
LIKELY TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FLOW
FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING CD FNT MAY SEE WIND GUSTS REACH SCA
LEVELS. SEAS FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCA
LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FNT FRIDAY NGT THRU THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN MAY SEE SCA GUSTS.
SEAS CONT TO ROUGH AT SCA LEVELS THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 221857
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER IN BETTER LIFT. OCEAN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN CLOSE IN MUCH OF THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY POKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MARINE LAYER WILL INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON. MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BLOW OCEAN STRATUS OUT
OF MOST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES. WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPS TOMORROW WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MID COAST AREAS IN THE 60S.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A STEADY RAIN OVER-SPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SPLIT PATTERN WITH TROF LIFTING TO THE NE OVER NE CANADA AND
ANOTHER DIGGING TO TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SFC THE CD
FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU THEN LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE FNT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPR LVL TROF. THIS LOW THEN
TRACKS UP THE FNT PROVIDING HI PROB PRCP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NGT. THE
UPR LVL TROF CUTS OFF TO OUR S THEN SLOWLY LIFTS N SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING UP THE E COAST WHICH CONT THE PROB
PRCP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT. THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ME COAST AND
TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY WITH STILL CHC SHRA.

FINALLY THE CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS LIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE TO SEE
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO OUR WX SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. UPR LVL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND MILDER WX.

GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR IN SHRA FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NGT AND STILL MVFR/IFR
LIKELY TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FLOW
FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING CD FNT MAY SEE WIND GUSTS REACH SCA
LEVELS. SEAS FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCA
LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FNT FRIDAY NGT THRU THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN MAY SEE SCA GUSTS.
SEAS CONT TO ROUGH AT SCA LEVELS THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 221056 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
656 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
TODAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY,
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY, WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MEMORIAL
DAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE THE LOW NORTHWARD WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE AS POPS ARE ON TRACK. AREA OF
RAIN NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AND OFFSHORE. HRRR HAS HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RAIN EVENT. WE SHOULD HAVE A
BREAK THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE RAIN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A RAIN FREE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. FARTHER SOUTH
CONVECTION IS HEAVIER AND STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTSMOUTH WITH
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WHEN THE RAIN DOES SUBSIDE PATCHY
DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDER IS TO OUR
SOUTH HOWEVER HAVE KEPT ISOLATED STRIKES IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AND STRETCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NY STATE AND OVER LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS BATCH WILL EXIT BY LATE
MORNING. WE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIPITATION
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. IN ADDITION DIURNAL HEATING AND
MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR JACKMAN AND
WATERVILLE TO 70S OVER MUCH OF NH AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO CANADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON PLACING THE ENTIRETY
OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A NNE TO SSW ORIENTED
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
HELPING TO GENERATE MODERATE RAIN AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL BE SLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE
NORTH UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECTEDLY, THE FORECAST MODELS ARE BICKERING ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW RAPIDLY
THE WET WEATHER WILL EXIT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW -- CLOSING OFF A
1001 HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY SATURDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS CONTINUED
TO FAVOR THE CONSISTENT AND WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION, AND WE`VE
FOLLOWED THAT THINKING AS WELL HERE. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRYING OUT
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AGREEMENT DOES, HOWEVER, COME IN THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY
BEFORE FILLING AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN SOME 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY -- MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE PATRIOT`S DAY THAN
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/
STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THURSDAY AT
NOON AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FOG...DRIZZLE...AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

LONG TERM...WITH THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE INTO
THE WEEKEND, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS TO EXTEND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...STJEAN

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220810
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
410 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
TODAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY,
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY, WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MEMORIAL
DAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE THE LOW NORTHWARD WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A RAIN FREE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. FARTHER SOUTH
CONVECTION IS HEAVIER AND STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTSMOUTH WITH
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WHEN THE RAIN DOES SUBSIDE PATCHY
DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDER IS TO OUR
SOUTH HOWEVER HAVE KEPT ISOLATED STRIKES IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AND STRETCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NY STATE AND OVER LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS BATCH WILL EXIT BY LATE
MORNING. WE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIPITATION
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. IN ADDITION DIURNAL HEATING AND
MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR JACKMAN AND
WATERVILLE TO 70S OVER MUCH OF NH AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO CANADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON PLACING THE ENTIRETY
OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A NNE TO SSW ORIENTED
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
HELPING TO GENERATE MODERATE RAIN AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL BE SLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE
NORTH UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECTEDLY, THE FORECAST MODELS ARE BICKERING ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW RAPIDLY
THE WET WEATHER WILL EXIT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW -- CLOSING OFF A
1001 HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY SATURDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS CONTINUED
TO FAVOR THE CONSISTENT AND WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION, AND WE`VE
FOLLOWED THAT THINKING AS WELL HERE. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRYING OUT
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AGREEMENT DOES, HOWEVER, COME IN THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY
BEFORE FILLING AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN SOME 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY -- MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE PATRIOT`S DAY THAN
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/
STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THURSDAY AT
NOON AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FOG...DRIZZLE...AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

LONG TERM...WITH THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE INTO
THE WEEKEND, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS TO EXTEND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...STJEAN

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220538 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
138 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
FIRST AREA OF HEAVY RAIN NOW MOVING OFFSHORE FROM PORTLAND TO THE
MIDCOAST WITH A RAIN FREE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. FARTHER
SOUTH CONVECTION STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTSMOUTH WITH MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. RAIN FREE AREAS MAY ALLOW FOG TO FORM BEFORE THE
REST OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOST
THUNDER IS TO OUR SOUTH HOWEVER HAVE KEPT ISOLATED STRIKES IN THE
FORECAST. MAINLY ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT BAND MOVING OFF
THE COAST AND MORE RAIN TO OUR WEST.

&&

0830 UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERING VT HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD REACH WESTERN NH BY 10 PM.
AM UPDATING FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD THUNDER EARLIER IN NH AND
WESTERN MAINE ZONES. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL DUE TO
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR SURFACE.

730 UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED GRIDS TO TWEAK TEMPS/DEWPTS TO MOST RECENT OBS. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER AIR. SHOWERS OVER VT HAVE ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THIS EVENING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. MUCH
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL...SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
840 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

0830 UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERING VT HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD RAECH WESTERN NH BY 10 PM.
AM UPDATING FORECAST PRUDUCTS TO ADD THUNDER EARLIER IN NH AND
WESTERN MAINE ZONES. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL DUE TO
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR SURFACE.

730 UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED GRIDS TO TREAK TEMPS/DEWPTS TO MOST RECENT OBS. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER AIR. SHOWERS OVER VT HAVE ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THIS EVENING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. MUCH
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL...SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 212335
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED GRIDS TO TREAK TEMPS/DEWPTS TO MOST RECENT OBS. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER AIR. SHOWERS OVER VT HAVE ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THIS EVENING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. MUCH
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL...SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211857
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211453
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TOUCHING OFF THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED IN A NW-SE
FASHION FROM NEAR BOSTON MA TO SWRN NH TO NEAR BURLINGTON VT.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO
THE 70S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. A
FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST HOUR. WELL NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...A GENERAL RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE BIT GOING FORWARD.

AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WAVER AROUND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. MLCAPE VALUES MAY RISE TO 700-1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA
FROM NEAR CONCORD NH WESTWARD. WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE IN THIS AREA...ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THERE. OTHERWISE...TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS.

BY MID AFTERNOON...A BACKDOOR PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
FROM NE TO SW...AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

635 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR
TREND AS WELL AS THE MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN IMPULSE EVIDENT ON GOES
WATER VAPOR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS RACING EAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED ON NWS 88D
DOPPLER MOSAIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE EASTWARD AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 12Z. IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY WITH A FEW
LOW 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS ENJOYING
SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F. FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS NEAR
THE COAST...MORE CLOUDS OR MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY TO THE 60S. STEADIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THURSDAY A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK IS REABSORBED INTO THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW AS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING INTO WESTERN NH IN THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS MID-DAY HEATING COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDE SPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN IN THE EARLY MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT TO SEA.... GFS SUGGEST A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE COULD CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE
FIRST PORTION OF FRIDAY...HOWEVER HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
TRANSIENT FEATURE AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CLEARING EARLIER IN
THE DAY. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE LOW BEING REPLACED BY A HIGH
BUILDING IN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BECOMING VFR WED WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND LCL BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.


LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE IFR FOG AND SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF IFR ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH ONLY
ISSUE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...
SEAS WILL BUILD UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.. WITH SCA FOR HIGH SEAS MOST LIKELY BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SEAS WILL DIMINISH
WITH RELATIVELY CALM AND FLAT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
635 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TOUCHING OFF THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

635 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR
TREND AS WELL AS THE MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN IMPULSE EVIDENT ON GOES
WATER VAPOR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS RACING EAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED ON NWS 88D
DOPPLER MOSAIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE EASTWARD AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 12Z. IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY WITH A FEW
LOW 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS ENJOYING
SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F. FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS NEAR
THE COAST...MORE CLOUDS OR MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY TO THE 60S. STEADIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THURSDAY A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK IS REABSORBED INTO THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW AS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING INTO WESTERN NH IN THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS MID-DAY HEATING COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDE SPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN IN THE EARLY MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT TO SEA.... GFS SUGGEST A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE COULD CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE
FIRST PORTION OF FRIDAY...HOWEVER HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
TRANSIENT FEATURE AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CLEARING EARLIER IN
THE DAY. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE LOW BEING REPLACED BY A HIGH
BUILDING IN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BECOMING VFR WED WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND LCL BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.


LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE IFR FOG AND SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF IFR ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH ONLY
ISSUE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...
SEAS WILL BUILD UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.. WITH SCA FOR HIGH SEAS MOST LIKELY BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SEAS WILL DIMINISH
WITH RELATIVELY CALM AND FLAT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 210656
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TOUCHING OFF THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

AT 06Z...WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN IMPULSE EVIDENT ON GOES
WATER VAPOR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS RACING EAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED ON NWS 88D
DOPPLER MOSAIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE EASTWARD AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 12Z. IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY WITH A FEW
LOW 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS ENJOYING
SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F. FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS NEAR
THE COAST...MORE CLOUDS OR MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY TO THE 60S. STEADIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THURSDAY A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK IS REABSORBED INTO THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW AS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING INTO WESTERN NH IN THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS MID-DAY HEATING COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDE SPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN IN THE EARLY MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT TO SEA.... GFS SUGGEST A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE COULD CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE
FIRST PORTION OF FRIDAY...HOWEVER HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
TRANSIENT FEATURE AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CLEARING EARLIER IN
THE DAY. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE LOW BEING REPLACED BY A HIGH
BUILDING IN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BECOMING VFR WED WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND LCL BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.


LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE IFR FOG AND SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF IFR ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH ONLY
ISSUE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...
SEAS WILL BUILD UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.. WITH SCA FOR HIGH SEAS MOST LIKELY BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SEAS WILL DIMINISH
WITH RELATIVELY CALM AND FLAT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES/CURTIS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 210653
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

AT 06Z...WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN IMPULSE EVIDENT ON GOES
WATER VAPOR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS RACING EAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED ON NWS 88D
DOPPLER MOSAIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE EASTWARD AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 12Z. IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY WITH A FEW
LOW 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS ENJOYING
SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F. FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS NEAR
THE COAST...MORE CLOUDS OR MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY TO THE 60S. STEADIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THURSDAY A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK IS REABSORBED INTO THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW AS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING INTO WESTERN NH IN THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS MID-DAY HEATING COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDE SPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN IN THE EARLY MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT TO SEA.... GFS SUGGEST A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE COULD CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE
FIRST PORTION OF FRIDAY...HOWEVER HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
TRANSIENT FEATURE AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CLEARING EARLIER IN
THE DAY. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE LOW BEING REPLACED BY A HIGH
BUILDING IN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BECOMING VFR WED WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND LCL BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.


LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE IFR FOG AND SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF IFR ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH ONLY
ISSUE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...
SEAS WILL BUILD UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.. WITH SCA FOR HIGH SEAS MOST LIKELY BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SEAS WILL DIMINISH
WITH RELATIVELY CALM AND FLAT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES/CURTIS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 210353
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1153 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ANY RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON FRIDAY AND DRIES US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AT 03Z...THE STALLED FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE ONTARIO EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS RACING
EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL REACH
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z. I MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AS WELL AS 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY ON. THE BULK
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE AS WAA PATTERN INCREASES NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE ASCENT WILL
BE GREATEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS...FOG...AND
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. ASCENT UP AND OVER THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...A RAW EAST WIND WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH THE RAIN...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS
LOCALLY HIGHER. TOWARD THE COAST...UP TO A HALF INCH IN SPOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE ACTIVE...BUT LOW
AMPLITUDE JET OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. COMBINES WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND...THIS WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA TO
THE CWA WED INTO THU NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC THURSDAY INTO THU
NIGHT...AND DEEPER 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
LIFT FAR ENOUGH N ON WED TO BRING WARM AND MUGGY WX TO MOST OF THE
AREA INTO THU. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU THU NIGHT...LOOK FOR
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL COME DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS WE WILL BE STUCK
TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WED-SAT. HOWEVER SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED AND THU...AND COASTAL STRATUS REMAINS A THREAT
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF RAIN AND FOG IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCR TO SCA WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
ON FRIDAY AND DRIES US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY ON. THE BULK
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE AS WAA PATTERN INCREASES NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE ASCENT WILL
BE GREATEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS...FOG...AND
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. ASCENT UP AND OVER THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...A RAW EAST WIND WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH THE RAIN...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS
LOCALLY HIGHER. TOWARD THE COAST...UP TO A HALF INCH IN SPOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE ACTIVE...BUT LOW
AMPLITUDE JET OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. COMBINES WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND...THIS WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA TO
THE CWA WED INTO THU NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC THURSDAY INTO THU
NIGHT...AND DEEPER 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
LIFT FAR ENOUGH N ON WED TO BRING WARM AND MUGGY WX TO MOST OF THE
AREA INTO THU. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU THU NIGHT...LOOK FOR
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL COME DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS WE WILL BE STUCK
TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WED-SAT. HOWEVER SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED AND THU...AND COASTAL STRATUS REMAINS A THREAT
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF RAIN AND FOG IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCR TO SCA WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/EKSTER
MARINE...CEMPA/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201336
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
937 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE POPS TO BETTERN REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY. BASICALLY...HAVE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
POPS FROM PWM-BML ON NORTH...AND MUCH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

625 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON RADAR
TREND AND MESONET AS PRECIPITATION AREA CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTH AND
EAST WITH WARM FRONT.


PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
NWS 88D DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL BRIEFLY SEE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH LATE TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A STRONG
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80F SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO THE 60S OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONT BEGINS
TO RETURN NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S...WITH COOLEST READINGS VICINITY OF COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK CREATING A
FOCUS FOR RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ONLY TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
MEAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AFFECT THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
REGARDLESS THERE IS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING NEW ENGLAND A
RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE ENSURING CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER AREAS IMPACTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COOLER THAN
AREAS TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM
S-N TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP POSSIBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR. MVFR
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...SCATTERED PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY ALL WEEK IN SHOWERS
AND FOG. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BE LOWER AT TIMES. SCATTERED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT FOR ANZ150. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE WATERS. FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL MAKE VISIBILITIES DROP AND BOATING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201025
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

625 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON RADAR
TREND AND MESONET AS PRECIPITATION AREA CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTH
AND EAST WITH WARM FRONT.


PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
NWS 88D DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL BRIEFLY SEE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH LATE TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A STRONG
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80F SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO THE 60S OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONT BEGINS
TO RETURN NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S...WITH COOLEST READINGS VICINITY OF COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK CREATING A
FOCUS FOR RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ONLY TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
MEAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AFFECT THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
REGARDLESS THERE IS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING NEW ENGLAND A
RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE ENSURING CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER AREAS IMPACTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COOLER THAN
AREAS TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM
S-N TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP POSSIBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR. MVFR
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...SCATTERED PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY ALL WEEK IN SHOWERS
AND FOG. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BE LOWER AT TIMES. SCATTERED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE WATERS. FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL MAKE VISIBILITIES DROP AND BOATING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200647
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
NWS 88D DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL BRIEFLY SEE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH LATE TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A STRONG
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80F SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO THE 60S OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONT BEGINS
TO RETURN NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S...WITH COOLEST READINGS VICINITY OF COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK CREATING A
FOCUS FOR RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ONLY TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
MEAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AFFECT THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
REGARDLESS THERE IS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING NEW ENGLAND A
RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE ENSURING CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER AREAS IMPACTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COOLER THAN
AREAS TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM
S-N TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP POSSIBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR. MVFR
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...SCATTERED PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY ALL WEEK IN SHOWERS
AND FOG. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BE LOWER AT TIMES. SCATTERED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE WATERS. FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL MAKE VISIBILITIES DROP AND BOATING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

ES/HANES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200431
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1231 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

1225 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS MESONET.

PREV DISC...
1030 PM...NO SIGNIF FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS. SHRA STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE FROM W TO E BETWEEN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AND LATE MON MORNING. WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT OUR MINS
LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN STEADY OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STALLED FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME UP
SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR. EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200306
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1106 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM...NO SIGNIF FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SHRA STILL ON
TRACK TO ARRIVE FROM W TO E BETWEEN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LATE MON
MORNING. WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT OUR MINS LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN
STEADY OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

645 PM...INDIVIDUAL SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SE...AS BAND OF SHRA TRACKS SLOWLY WEST. MID-UPPR LVL RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOW...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SHRA...OR OCCNL RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THRU. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID-LVL TROUGH DIGS A BIT LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO ERN AND NR ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SRN NH
SHOULD START TO SEE SHRA END BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E DURING THE FIRST PART OF MON MORNING. TWEAKED
SKY/TEMPS A BIT AS WELL. MINS...ESPECIALLY IN S AND W ZONES LOOK
TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...A S/WV MOVG ESEWD ALONG THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND WIDESPREAD SHWRS CAN BE
EXPCTD TO SPREAD QUICKLY FM W-E OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO RFCQPF
AMTS FOR OVERNIGHT WHICH WERE BTWN .25-.50 WITH THE HIEST AMTS
FURTHER N. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON THE MOIST SSELY FLOW
AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DVLP. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
GUID FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STALLED FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME UP
SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR. EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200234
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM...NO SIGNIF FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SHRA STILL ON
TRACK TO EN FROM W TO E BETWEEN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LATE MON
MORNING. WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT OUR MINS LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN
STEADY OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

645 PM...INDIVIDUAL SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SE...AS BAD OF SHRA TRACKS SLOWLY WEST. MID-UPPR LVL RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOW...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SHRA...OR OCCNL RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THRU. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID-LVL TROUGH DIGS A BIT LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO ERN AND NR ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SRN NH
SHOULD START TO SEE SHRA END BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E DURING THE FIRST PART OF MON MORNING. TWEAKED
SKY/TEMPS A BIT AS WELL. MINS...ESPECIALLY IN S AND W ZONES LOOK
TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...A S/WV MOVG ESEWD ALONG THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND WIDESPREAD SHWRS CAN BE
EXPCTD TO SPREAD QUICKLY FM W-E OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO RFCQPF
AMTS FOR OVERNIGHT WHICH WERE BTWN .25-.50 WITH THE HIEST AMTS
FURTHER N. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON THE MOIST SSELY FLOW
AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DVLP. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
GUID FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STALLED
FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME
UP SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...