Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KGYX 251916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY IS IN PROGRESS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EVEN AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DENSE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NH/ME BORDER ALONG A WARM FRONT...AND A LARGE SWATH OF
CLOUDS FROM NY STATE WEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTH INTO
CANADA. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST BOUNDARY.

DP DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE 10-20 DEGREES SO IT MAY TAKE
A LITTLE BIT FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO MOSTLY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE CAN INTERACT WITH FRONTAL FORCING. OVERNIGHT
WE MAY GET A STRAY SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AS A PLYMOUTH TO WATERFORD
TO AUGUSTA LINE BUT IT WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS AS READINGS DROP BELOW 32...
BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. CLOUD COVER STICKS
AROUND FOR THE MOST PART HELPING KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTY WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE OUT OF THE MID 40S
THE NORTH WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND READINGS
IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MORE LIGHT FLURRIES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK STARTS OUT WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE UPSLOPE SHOWERS COME TO AN END AS
THE SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO CALM AND THE HIGH
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH AND SHOULD RESULT IN FROST BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TOO LOW.
TUESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FOR COASTAL REGIONS...THIS MEANS FLOW RIGHT OFF THE
WATER.. RESULTING IN A MARINE STRATUS LAYER MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM... WITH 850MB TEMP
AT +13C...MEAN WHILE, ON THE BACKSIDE BY 12Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS
ARE AT -5C. THIS QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE A BIT TRICKY... MORE WESTERN AREAS MAY
SEE A SUNRISE HIGH AS THE FRONT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FLAT AND DOWNWARD. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST ALONG THE
COAST THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FINAL LAST HURRAH FOR THE FALL.

BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SITS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG FIRST A WARM FRONT AND
THAN A COLD FRONT AS THEY NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES. GUSTY WNW WINDS DEVELOP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AS
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD
OF IFR WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT HIE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL SEAS WILL SKIRT THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REACH 25 KTS WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...WEEK WILL START OUT CALM. AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN SCA
CRITERIA FOR 12-18HRS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COASTAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY HAVE NOT YET HAD A
FREEZE OR KILLING FROST THIS FALL. THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE FIRST
FALL FREEZE BASED ON 30 YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGY IS OCTOBER 11 FOR THE
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTLINES. IT IS NOW TWO WEEKS AFTER
THIS DATE...THEREFORE WE WILL NO LONGER ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR FREEZES
OR KILLING FROSTS FOR THIS AREA. THIS WILL CONCLUDE THE
FROST...FREEZE PROGRAM FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE FALL
SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251916
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY IS IN PROGRESS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EVEN AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DENSE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NH/ME BORDER ALONG A WARM FRONT...AND A LARGE SWATH OF
CLOUDS FROM NY STATE WEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTH INTO
CANADA. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST BOUNDARY.

DP DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE 10-20 DEGREES SO IT MAY TAKE
A LITTLE BIT FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS TO MOSTLY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE CAN INTERACT WITH FRONTAL FORCING. OVERNIGHT
WE MAY GET A STRAY SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AS A PLYMOUTH TO WATERFORD
TO AUGUSTA LINE BUT IT WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS AS READINGS DROP BELOW 32...
BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. CLOUD COVER STICKS
AROUND FOR THE MOST PART HELPING KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTY WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE OUT OF THE MID 40S
THE NORTH WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND READINGS
IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MORE LIGHT FLURRIES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK STARTS OUT WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE UPSLOPE SHOWERS COME TO AN END AS
THE SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO CALM AND THE HIGH
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH AND SHOULD RESULT IN FROST BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TOO LOW.
TUESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FOR COASTAL REGIONS...THIS MEANS FLOW RIGHT OFF THE
WATER.. RESULTING IN A MARINE STRATUS LAYER MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM... WITH 850MB TEMP
AT +13C...MEAN WHILE, ON THE BACKSIDE BY 12Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS
ARE AT -5C. THIS QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE A BIT TRICKY... MORE WESTERN AREAS MAY
SEE A SUNRISE HIGH AS THE FRONT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FLAT AND DOWNWARD. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST ALONG THE
COAST THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
FINAL LAST HURRAH FOR THE FALL.

BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SITS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG FIRST A WARM FRONT AND
THAN A COLD FRONT AS THEY NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES. GUSTY WNW WINDS DEVELOP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AS
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD
OF IFR WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT HIE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL SEAS WILL SKIRT THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REACH 25 KTS WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...WEEK WILL START OUT CALM. AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN SCA
CRITERIA FOR 12-18HRS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COASTAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY HAVE NOT YET HAD A
FREEZE OR KILLING FROST THIS FALL. THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE FIRST
FALL FREEZE BASED ON 30 YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGY IS OCTOBER 11 FOR THE
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTLINES. IT IS NOW TWO WEEKS AFTER
THIS DATE...THEREFORE WE WILL NO LONGER ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR FREEZES
OR KILLING FROSTS FOR THIS AREA. THIS WILL CONCLUDE THE
FROST...FREEZE PROGRAM FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE FALL
SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251407 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1007 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS
FOG IS STILL HANGING ON IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND A COUPLE MORE
SPOTS. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
QUICKLY IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO
E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251110 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
710 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP AND SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO
E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251110 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
710 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP AND SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO
E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250922 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
522 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLEARING HAS LED TO SOME HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS NH.
HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE
EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS WELL AS ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS DOWNWARD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE W THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO
E WITH TIME. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO
CLIMATE...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250722
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO E WITH TIME. THESE
BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEGRO
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO
CLIMATE...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250006 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
806 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING ADJUSTING POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE MIDCOAST AND OVER THE
TERRAIN. ALSO CLOUD COVER IS HANGING ON STUBBORNLY. DO THINK WE
WILL SEE ENOUGH BREAKS/CLEARING BY MORNING FOR LOWS TO REACH THE
30S AND 40S AS FORECAST...HOWEVER INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THICKER.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE SHOULD HOLD ON TO A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH
WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUSION CROSSES MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK CITY AND SEND IT UP
THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE KEEPS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCL IFR...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT. VFR SATURDAY...WITH SCT MVFR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BOTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE NW FACING TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE BAYS HAVE HAD THE SCA HEADLINE DROPPED ALTOGETHER.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS MAY REACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 18Z...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE SHOULD HOLD ON TO A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH
WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUSION CROSSES MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK CITY AND SEND IT UP
THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE KEEPS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCL IFR...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT. VFR SATURDAY...WITH SCT MVFR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BOTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE NW FACING TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE BAYS HAVE HAD THE SCA HEADLINE DROPPED ALTOGETHER.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS MAY REACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/CANNON





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 18Z...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE SHOULD HOLD ON TO A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH
WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUSION CROSSES MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK CITY AND SEND IT UP
THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE KEEPS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCL IFR...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT. VFR SATURDAY...WITH SCT MVFR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BOTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE NW FACING TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE BAYS HAVE HAD THE SCA HEADLINE DROPPED ALTOGETHER.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS MAY REACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/CANNON





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241825
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 18Z...GOES IMAGERY SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WE SHOULD HOLD ON TO A FEW
MORE CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATUS SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S IN THE NORTH
WITH 50S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN OCCLUSION CROSSES MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK CITY AND SEND IT UP
THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE KEEPS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WELL OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHORT TERM...MVFR AND LCL IFR...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT. VFR SATURDAY...WITH SCT MVFR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BOTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE NW FACING TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THE BAYS HAVE HAD THE SCA HEADLINE DROPPED ALTOGETHER.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS MAY REACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/CANNON





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241646
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1238 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE 16Z MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
935 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND POP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY
WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS
STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING
THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN
AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS
ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL
RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

935 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND POP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY
WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS
STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING
THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN
AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS
ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL
RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241105 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
705 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND POP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY
WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS
STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING
THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN
AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS
ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL
RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240931 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE TWEAKED POP TO REFLECT
TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS. ONE IN CENTRAL ME...AND
THE OTHER DRIFTING SWD THRU SWRN ME AND SRN NH. MOISTURE FEED WILL
CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL ME THRU THIS MORNING...WHILE THE SRN PCPN
WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY
WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS
STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING
THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN
AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS
ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL
RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240728
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A
BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES. HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS
IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE
FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS
BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL
BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE
BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED
THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL RIVERS ARE AT ACTION
STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL
CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING
TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS
CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE
MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND
USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING
OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN
EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240215 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING. THIS RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. CALLS TO COMMUNITIES INDICATE NO FLOODING PROBLEMS OF NOTE...
BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES SMALL STREAMS AND SOME RIVERS WILL REACH
BANKFULL AND MINOR URBAN FLOODING WILL PERSIST. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS/HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
NOT BE EXITING ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLUG OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IN A MORE WNW
DIRECTION THAN NNW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MESOMODELS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY MOVING
INTO EASTERN MAINE. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY AND ANY
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING.
ALSO THINK FOG WILL BE VERY LIMITED BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SO HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A 100% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...SOME LOCATIONS LIKE SOUTHERN NH ARE NOT CURRENTLY RECEIVING
PRECIPITATION AND WON`T FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES TO TRY AND REFLECT WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING WITH THE
HELP OF THE WRF/HRRR AND NAM12.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240215 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING. THIS RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. CALLS TO COMMUNITIES INDICATE NO FLOODING PROBLEMS OF NOTE...
BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES SMALL STREAMS AND SOME RIVERS WILL REACH
BANKFULL AND MINOR URBAN FLOODING WILL PERSIST. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS/HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
NOT BE EXITING ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLUG OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IN A MORE WNW
DIRECTION THAN NNW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MESOMODELS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY MOVING
INTO EASTERN MAINE. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY AND ANY
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING.
ALSO THINK FOG WILL BE VERY LIMITED BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SO HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A 100% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...SOME LOCATIONS LIKE SOUTHERN NH ARE NOT CURRENTLY RECEIVING
PRECIPITATION AND WON`T FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES TO TRY AND REFLECT WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING WITH THE
HELP OF THE WRF/HRRR AND NAM12.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 232240 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SLUG OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IN A MORE WNW
DIRECTION THAN NNW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MESOMODELS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY
MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY
AND ANY INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED
WORDING. ALSO THINK FOG WILL BE VERY LIMITED BASED ON THE PRESENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SO HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A 100% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...SOME LOCATIONS LIKE SOUTHERN NH ARE NOT CURRENTLY
RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AND WON`T FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I HAVE
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO TRY AND REFLECT WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRINGWITH THE HELP OF THE WRF/HRRR AND NAM12.

&&

AT 18Z...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. WATER VAPOR AND GOES INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW
BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ROTATING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM AND ONSHORE INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS AND NOT THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. WATER VAPOR AND GOES INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW
BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ROTATING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM AND ONSHORE INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS AND NOT THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES/JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. WATER VAPOR AND GOES INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW
BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ROTATING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM AND ONSHORE INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS AND NOT THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES/JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231607
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1207 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1202 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC...
925 AM...I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS MESONET. I RAISED 6 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE KPSM - KCON AREA. THE STORM
WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WAS REPLACED WITH A GALE WARNING
FOR THIS UPDATE. TIDE DEPARTURE IS APPROACHING 1.5 FT AHEAD OF THE
11 AM HIGH TIDE AT THE PORTLAND GAGE...WITH 15 FOOT SEAS BEING
OBSERVED SOUTH OF CASCO BAY...WE WILL SEE SPLASHOVER AND SOME
BEACH EROSION WITH THIS HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
PORTLAND.

PREV DISC...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY.

AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL
OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK
WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND.

A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS
IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON
HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE
SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N
THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND
KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA
LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD
FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR
CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR
THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS MESONET. I RAISED 6 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE KPSM - KCON AREA. THE STORM
WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WAS REPLACED WITH A GALE WARNING
FOR THIS UPDATE. TIDE DEPARTURE IS APPROACHING 1.5 FT AHEAD OF THE
11 AM HIGH TIDE AT THE PORTLAND GAGE...WITH 15 FOOT SEAS BEING
OBSERVED SOUTH OF CASCO BAY...WE WILL SEE SPLASHOVER AND SOME
BEACH EROSION WITH THIS HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
PORTLAND.

PREV DISC...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY.

AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL
OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK
WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND.

A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS
IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON
HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE
SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N
THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND
KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA
LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD
FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR
CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR
THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-
     014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230810
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY.

AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL
OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK
WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND.

A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS
IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON
HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE
SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N
THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND
KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA
LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD
FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR
CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR
THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-
     014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230810
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY.

AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL
OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK
WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND.

A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS
IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON
HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE
SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N
THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND
KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA
LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD
FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR
CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR
THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-
     014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230515
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 115 AM UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AT THIS TIME BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAWN.

810 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. THE
WRAPAROUND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC:
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD
OF THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AT 18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE
BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND
SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH
LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR
HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR
INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A
STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR
TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND
FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS
BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST SO INCREASED
WINDS AND UPGRADED THE GALE WARNINGS TO STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS WHILE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities