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000
FXUS61 KGYX 310109
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
909 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
---900PM UPDATE---
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.

---640PM UPDATE---
RATHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
INTERMITTANT CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST THEM FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT
DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN
THE MTNS. MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 302240
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY/...
---640PM UPDATE---
RATHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
INTERMITTANT CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST THEM FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT
DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN
THE MTNS. MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301946
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL
START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS
OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS A
LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM
THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE MTNS.
MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...CEMPA/EKSTER
MARINE...CEMPA/EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301546
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1146 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO LINGER THE SPRINKLES A LITTLE LONGER AROUND
THE UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MODIFY MAXES A BIT...MAINLY IN THE MTNS
WHERE CURRENT OBS ARE NEAR FORECAST HIGHS. STARTING TO SEE BACK
EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST...AND EXPECTING MORE
SUN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

10 AM...SOME QUICK TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE SWATH OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE MTNS...THIS MORNING...AS WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVES THRU. SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301405
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1005 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...SOME QUICK TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE SWATH OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE MTNS...THIS MORNING...AS WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVES THRU. SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 300652
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
252 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE DRY SLOT OF
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI.
GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 300140
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 PM UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE.
HAVE SPED UP THE CLEARING LINE WHICH IS REACHING THE CT VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND
SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 292238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT
THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 292238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT
THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291942
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
342 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
916 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM...SOME MODS TO THE FORECAST...BUT THIS UPDATE MAINLY DEALS
WITH DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADV AS VSBY INCR AT MOST OBS
SITES...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE FOG SHOULD COMPLETELY MIX OUT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
THROUGH BETTER TO BETTER SHOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF
WHAT ESSENTIALLY IS A BAND OF SHRA.

5 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE WX GRIDS TO REFLECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS MOST OF SRN AND ERN AREAS OF THE FA. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING.  NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THE SHWRS
EXPECTED. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE DOWNSLOPING W WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXPECT MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
WRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A COLDER AND
DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLEARING SKIES. ON THURSDAY THE DRY COOL NWLY FLOW
CONTINUES SO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED. USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE STATES ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT SHORT
WAVE DIVES DOWN ALL THE WAY TO GA BEFORE LIFTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
PHASES WITH A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM. THE RESULTANT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FROM CANADA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 2"
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME... AND SHOULD MELT OFF
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.
PW VALUES DROP VERY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INDICATING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOL IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG GENERALLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH A WIND SHIFT ALLOWING CONDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN STEADIER RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW VSBYS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTRW NOT ENOUGH OF A SSW PRES GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR A SCA. ALTHOUGH TONIGHT SOME WIND
GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA, NO
SCA IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE SEAS AND
WINDS ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COASTAL
STORM NEARS AND INTENSIFIES S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
508 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
5 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE WX GRIDS TO REFLECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS MOST OF SRN AND ERN AREAS OF THE FA. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING.  NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THE SHWRS
EXPECTED. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE DOWNSLOPING W WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXPECT MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
WRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A COLDER AND
DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLEARING SKIES. ON THURSDAY THE DRY COOL NWLY FLOW
CONTINUES SO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED. USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE STATES ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT SHORT
WAVE DIVES DOWN ALL THE WAY TO GA BEFORE LIFTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
PHASES WITH A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM. THE RESULTANT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FROM CANADA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 2"
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME... AND SHOULD MELT OFF
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.
PW VALUES DROP VERY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INDICATING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOL IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG GENERALLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH A WIND SHIFT ALLOWING CONDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN STEADIER RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW VSBYS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTRW NOT ENOUGH OF A SSW PRES GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR A SCA. ALTHOUGH TONIGHT SOME WIND
GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA, NO
SCA IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE SEAS AND
WINDS ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COASTAL
STORM NEARS AND INTENSIFIES S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ004-006-
     008>010-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 290905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
505 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
5 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE WX GRIDS TO REFLECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS MOST OF SRN AND ERN AREAS OF THE FA. NO OTHER CHANGES
ATTM.

PREV DISC:
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THE SHWRS
EXPECTED. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE DOWNSLOPING W WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXPECT MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
WRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A COLDER AND
DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLEARING SKIES. ON THURSDAY THE DRY COOL NWLY FLOW
CONTINUES SO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED. USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE STATES ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT SHORT
WAVE DIVES DOWN ALL THE WAY TO GA BEFORE LIFTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
PHASES WITH A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM. THE RESULTANT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FROM CANADA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 2"
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME... AND SHOULD MELT OFF
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.
PW VALUES DROP VERY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INDICATING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOL IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG GENERALLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH A WIND SHIFT ALLOWING CONDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN STEADIER RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW VSBYS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTRW NOT ENOUGH OF A SSW PRES GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR A SCA. ALTHOUGH TONIGHT SOME WIND
GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA, NO
SCA IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE SEAS AND
WINDS ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COASTAL
STORM NEARS AND INTENSIFIES S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 290724
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
324 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THE SHWRS
EXPECTED. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE DOWNSLOPING W WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXPECT MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
WRN MTNS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A COLDER AND
DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLEARING SKIES. ON THURSDAY THE DRY COOL NWLY FLOW
CONTINUES SO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED. USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE STATES ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT SHORT
WAVE DIVES DOWN ALL THE WAY TO GA BEFORE LIFTING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
PHASES WITH A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM. THE RESULTANT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FROM CANADA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 2"
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME... AND SHOULD MELT OFF
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.
PW VALUES DROP VERY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INDICATING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOL IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH SOME OF
THE MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT
ALLOWING CONDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN STEADIER RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NOT ENOUGH OF A SSW PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR A SCA. ALTHOUGH TONIGHT SOME WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA, NO SCA IS WARRANTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE SEAS AND
WINDS ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COASTAL
STORM NEARS AND INTENSIFIES S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


MARINE/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290206
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1006 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER SIR FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER
AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RADIATED DOWN PAST FORECAST MINS IN SOME OF THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THAT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO BACK UP WITH
THICKER CLOUDS SOON DEVELOPING. ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
IN PLACE.

615 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WE
EXPECT FOG AND DRIZZLE LATER ON TONIGHT BUT STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.. BRINGING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY MILD.. REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF TOMORROWS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE MORNING WILL
START OFF MILD... WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MID MORNING...
AND CLEAR THROUGH THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT... BUT THE TOTAL AMOUNT WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NRN HEMISPHEREREMAINS
DOMINATED BY BY SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE OMEGA BLOCKS...WHICH
OSCILLATE IN AMPLITUDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...THE
REGION STARTS OUT IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS...BUT POTENT
WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE YUKON AND INTO BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF AND TILTS IT NEGATIVE...WHICH WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF PRECIP TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S...AND GENERALLY MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIALLY 500MB TROUGH SLIDES
WWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO LOWER THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BEGINNING SAT AS THE GFS TAKES THE SRN STREAM WAVE OUT OF PLAY
BEFORE THE 500MB WAVE DROPS SWD INTO THE GRT LAKES AND OHIO VLY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL SFC LOW ULTIMATELY WEAKER
AND DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY BUT
COOL SUNDAY. STILL...THE MTNS COULD END UP WITH LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW SAT NIGHT.

THE 12Z EURO...AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 12Z GLOBAL CMC DO PHASE THE
500MB WAVES...BUT BOTH ARE DO IT FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
A LITTLE BIT LATER. SO THE LOW INTENSIFIES SAT NIGHT AND TRACKS
OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF A
LITTLE LONGER. STILL BOTH THESE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...WHERE THE BEST CHC WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO FINE TUNING ANY AREA THAT COULD GET ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON SUNDAY OR ANY AMOUNTS...BUT THE HTREAT OF ACCUMULATING
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THIS LOW WILL CARVE OUT A A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND RIDGING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMER AIR TO
MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTE CONCORD /KCON/ IS EXPERIENCING LOW AND VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO A CONTROLLED BURN AT THE AIRFIELD. TONIGHT WILL
SEE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.. WITH
RKD..PSM...AND PWM EXPECTED TO REACH IFR BY SUNRISE. IN THE
INTERIOR... FOG WILL BRING LEB TO IFR.. WHILE HIE AND CON REMAIN
AT MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL BUT HIE RETURNING TO VFR AFTER
FROPA... HIE WILL REMAIN MVFR IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS SAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER IN
STEADIER RA/SN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MODEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN AN SCA BEING
NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...CONDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THU INTO SAT. COASTAL STORM
COULD INTENSIFY S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND
SCA LKLY WITH GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 282216
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
615 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER SIR FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER
AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WE
EXPECT FOG AND DRIZZLE LATER ON TONIGHT BUT STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.. BRINGING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY MILD.. REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF TOMORROWS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE MORNING WILL
START OFF MILD... WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MID MORNING...
AND CLEAR THROUGH THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT... BUT THE TOTAL AMOUNT WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NRN HEMISPHEREREMAINS
DOMINATED BY BY SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE OMEGA BLOCKS...WHICH
OSCILLATE IN AMPLITUDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...THE
REGION STARTS OUT IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS...BUT POTENT
WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE YUKON AND INTO BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF AND TILTS IT NEGATIVE...WHICH WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF PRECIP TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S...AND GENERALLY MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIALLY 500MB TROUGH SLIDES
WWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO LOWER THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BEGINNING SAT AS THE GFS TAKES THE SRN STREAM WAVE OUT OF PLAY
BEFORE THE 500MB WAVE DROPS SWD INTO THE GRT LAKES AND OHIO VLY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL SFC LOW ULTIMATELY WEAKER
AND DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY BUT
COOL SUNDAY. STILL...THE MTNS COULD END UP WITH LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW SAT NIGHT.

THE 12Z EURO...AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 12Z GLOBAL CMC DO PHASE THE
500MB WAVES...BUT BOTH ARE DO IT FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
A LITTLE BIT LATER. SO THE LOW INTENSIFIES SAT NIGHT AND TRACKS
OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF A
LITTLE LONGER. STILL BOTH THESE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...WHERE THE BEST CHC WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO FINE TUNING ANY AREA THAT COULD GET ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON SUNDAY OR ANY AMOUNTS...BUT THE HTREAT OF ACCUMULATING
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THIS LOW WILL CARVE OUT A A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND RIDGING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMER AIR TO
MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTE CONCORD /KCON/ IS EXPERIENCING LOW AND VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO A CONTROLLED BURN AT THE AIRFIELD. TONIGHT WILL
SEE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.. WITH
RKD..PSM...AND PWM EXPECTED TO REACH IFR BY SUNRISE. IN THE
INTERIOR... FOG WILL BRING LEB TO IFR.. WHILE HIE AND CON REMAIN
AT MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL BUT HIE RETURNING TO VFR AFTER
FROPA... HIE WILL REMAIN MVFR IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS SAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER IN
STEADIER RA/SN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MODEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN AN SCA BEING
NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...CONDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THU INTO SAT. COASTAL STORM
COULD INTENSIFY S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND
SCA LKLY WITH GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281948
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER SIR FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER AIR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER
AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.. BRINGING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY MILD.. REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF TOMORROWS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE MORNING WILL
START OFF MILD... WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MID MORNING...
AND CLEAR THROUGH THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT... BUT THE TOTAL AMOUNT WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NRN HEMISPHEREREMAINS
DOMINATED BY BY SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE OMEGA BLOCKS...WHICH
OSCILLATE IN AMPLITUDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...THE
REGION STARTS OUT IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS...BUT POTENT
WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE YUKON AND INTO BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF AND TILTS IT NEGATIVE...WHICH WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF PRECIP TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S...AND GENERALLY MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIALLY 500MB TROUGH SLIDES
WWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO LOWER THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BEGINNING SAT AS THE GFS TAKES THE SRN STREAM WAVE OUT OF PLAY
BEFORE THE 500MB WAVE DROPS SWD INTO THE GRT LAKES AND OHIO VLY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL SFC LOW ULTIMATELY WEAKER
AND DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY BUT
COOL SUNDAY. STILL...THE MTNS COULD END UP WITH LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW SAT NIGHT.

THE 12Z EURO...AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 12Z GLOBAL CMC DO PHASE THE
500MB WAVES...BUT BOTH ARE DO IT FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
A LITTLE BIT LATER. SO THE LOW INTENSIFIES SAT NIGHT AND TRACKS
OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF A
LITTLE LONGER. STILL BOTH THESE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...WHERE THE BEST CHC WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO FINE TUNING ANY AREA THAT COULD GET ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON SUNDAY OR ANY AMOUNTS...BUT THE HTREAT OF ACCUMULATING
REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THIS LOW WILL CARVE OUT A A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND RIDGING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMER AIR TO
MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTE CONCORD /KCON/ IS EXPERIENCING LOW AND VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO A CONTROLLED BURN AT THE AIRFIELD. TONIGHT WILL
SEE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.. WITH
RKD..PSM...AND PWM EXPECTED TO REACH IFR BY SUNRISE. IN THE
INTERIOR... FOG WILL BRING LEB TO IFR.. WHILE HIE AND CON REMAIN
AT MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL BUT HIE RETURNING TO VFR AFTER
FROPA... HIE WILL REMAIN MVFR IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS SAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER IN
STEADIER RA/SN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MODEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN AN SCA BEING
NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...CONDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THU INTO SAT. COASTAL STORM
COULD INTENSIFY S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND
SCA LKLY WITH GALES POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281636
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1236 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA..WHILE TO THE SOUTH SKIES ARE STARTING TO
CLEAR. ADJUSTED TO CURRENT TRENDS.

9AM UPDATE... HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS THE
CLOUD COVER LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING AND THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH FOR THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.. AS HIGH CIRRUS AND TEMPS IN THE 60S ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM SECTOR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINNING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE WARMING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THIS
SOMEWHAT AS WELL. BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE
TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE HEATING/MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
TODAY. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT... THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND BEGIN TRANSPORTING
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ACTUALLY INDICATE RISING
DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS USUALLY A SIGN OF FOG POTENTIAL.
WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER CONTRIBUTING TO THIS... FOG AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS MENTIONED ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH THE
MIDCOAST REGION BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA AFFECTED. TEMPERATURES
DO NOT FALL OFF THAT MUCH TONIGHT AND IN FACT MAY BEGIN TO RISE
LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP. IT APPEARS THAT TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
BRING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE SECOND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS
IN THE NORTH BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTH BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY AND COOL WNW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. BUT ALL EYES WILL
BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST COAST STORM TO
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH. ONE THING MODELS ALL
AGREE ON IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY.
THE LATEST EURO CLOSES OFF THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS STRONG JET DIGGING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LIFTING IT NEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF
MAINE FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP TROUGH MORE OPEN,
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N. THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING IS TRYING
TO PHASE TWO SEPARATE STRONG S/WAVES THAT BOTH PACK A LOT OF
ENERGY. TIMING OF ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT
SO HEDGED FOR NOW AND RAISED POPS AND HAD TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
EURO SOLUTION. EURO WOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE CLEARING FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW
LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER
THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN
THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR GUIDANCE, STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT HAD TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD TO REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY. WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT LINGERING MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TODAY AND INCREASES A BIT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MAY ALLOW THE WNW FLOW TO BRIEFLY GUST
TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
GALE OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281314
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
914 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

9AM UPDATE... HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS THE
CLOUD COVER LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING AND THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH FOR THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.. AS HIGH CIRRUS AND TEMPS IN THE 60S ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM SECTOR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINNING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE WARMING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THIS
SOMEWHAT AS WELL. BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE
TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE HEATING/MIXING
POTENTIAL TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
TODAY. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT... THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND BEGIN TRANSPORTING
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ACTUALLY INDICATE RISING
DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS USUALLY A SIGN OF FOG POTENTIAL.
WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER CONTRIBUTING TO THIS... FOG AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS MENTIONED ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH THE
MIDCOAST REGION BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA AFFECTED. TEMPERATURES
DO NOT FALL OFF THAT MUCH TONIGHT AND IN FACT MAY BEGIN TO RISE
LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP. IT APPEARS THAT TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
BRING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE SECOND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS
IN THE NORTH BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTH BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY AND COOL WNW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. BUT ALL EYES WILL
BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST COAST STORM TO
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH. ONE THING MODELS ALL
AGREE ON IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY.
THE LATEST EURO CLOSES OFF THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS STRONG JET DIGGING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LIFTING IT NEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF
MAINE FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP TROUGH MORE OPEN,
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N. THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING IS TRYING
TO PHASE TWO SEPARATE STRONG S/WAVES THAT BOTH PACK A LOT OF
ENERGY. TIMING OF ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT
SO HEDGED FOR NOW AND RAISED POPS AND HAD TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
EURO SOLUTION. EURO WOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE CLEARING FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW
LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER
THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN
THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR GUIDANCE, STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT HAD TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD TO REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY. WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT LINGERING MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TODAY AND INCREASES A BIT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MAY ALLOW THE WNW FLOW TO BRIEFLY GUST
TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
GALE OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281028
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
630AM UPDATE...
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AS WELL AS FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE
HEADED INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE UPDATED TO INSERT POP FOR THESE
SHOWERS. OVERALL ACTIVITY IS LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND
DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS THE DAY GOES ON.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW
BEGINNING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. BUT SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE HEATING/MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY. WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT... THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND BEGIN TRANSPORTING
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ACTUALLY INDICATE RISING
DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS USUALLY A SIGN OF FOG POTENTIAL.
WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER CONTRIBUTING TO THIS... FOG AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS MENTIONED ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH THE
MIDCOAST REGION BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA AFFECTED. TEMPERATURES
DO NOT FALL OFF THAT MUCH TONIGHT AND IN FACT MAY BEGIN TO RISE
LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP. IT APPEARS THAT TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
BRING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE SECOND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS
IN THE NORTH BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTH BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY AND COOL WNW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. BUT ALL EYES WILL
BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST COAST STORM TO
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH. ONE THING MODELS ALL
AGREE ON IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY.
THE LATEST EURO CLOSES OFF THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS STRONG JET DIGGING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LIFTING IT NEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF
MAINE FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP TROUGH MORE OPEN,
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N. THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING IS TRYING
TO PHASE TWO SEPARATE STRONG S/WAVES THAT BOTH PACK A LOT OF
ENERGY. TIMING OF ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT
SO HEDGED FOR NOW AND RAISED POPS AND HAD TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
EURO SOLUTION. EURO WOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE CLEARING FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW
LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER
THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN
THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR GUIDANCE, STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT HAD TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD TO REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY. WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT LINGERING MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TODAY AND INCREASES A BIT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MAY ALLOW THE WNW FLOW TO BRIEFLY GUST
TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
GALE OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM... KIMBLE
LONG TERM... MARINE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280734
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW
BEGINNING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. BUT SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE HEATING/MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY. WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT... THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND BEGIN TRANSPORTING
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ACTUALLY INDICATE RISING
DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS USUALLY A SIGN OF FOG POTENTIAL.
WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER CONTRIBUTING TO THIS... FOG AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS MENTIONED ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH THE
MIDCOAST REGION BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA AFFECTED. TEMPERATURES
DO NOT FALL OFF THAT MUCH TONIGHT AND IN FACT MAY BEGIN TO RISE
LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP. IT APPEARS THAT TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
BRING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE SECOND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS
IN THE NORTH BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTH BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY AND COOL WNW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. BUT ALL EYES WILL
BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST COAST STORM TO
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH. ONE THING MODELS ALL
AGREE ON IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY.
THE LATEST EURO CLOSES OFF THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS STRONG JET DIGGING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LIFTING IT NEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF
MAINE FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP TROUGH MORE OPEN,
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N. THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING IS TRYING
TO PHASE TWO SEPARATE STRONG S/WAVES THAT BOTH PACK A LOT OF
ENERGY. TIMING OF ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT
SO HEDGED FOR NOW AND RAISED POPS AND HAD TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
EURO SOLUTION. EURO WOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE CLEARING FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW
LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER
THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN
THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR GUIDANCE, STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT HAD TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD TO REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY. WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT LINGERING MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TODAY AND INCREASES A BIT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MAY ALLOW THE WNW FLOW TO BRIEFLY GUST
TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
GALE OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM... KIMBLE
LONG TERM... MARINE





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