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000
FXUS61 KGYX 280142
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA. ALOFT A VERY
WEAK VORT MAX VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS. WHILE THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE
SHOWERS HAS DECREASED, THE AFFECT ON THE GROUND IS THE SAME...
VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN SCTTERED SHOWERS. WITH
DIURNAL FORCING LONG GONE, IT SEEMS THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

6PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SHOWERS
SILL ONGOING THROUGH THE MIDCOAST BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280142
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA. ALOFT A VERY
WEAK VORT MAX VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS. WHILE THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE
SHOWERS HAS DECREASED, THE AFFECT ON THE GROUND IS THE SAME...
VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN SCTTERED SHOWERS. WITH
DIURNAL FORCING LONG GONE, IT SEEMS THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

6PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SHOWERS
SILL ONGOING THROUGH THE MIDCOAST BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280142
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA. ALOFT A VERY
WEAK VORT MAX VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS. WHILE THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE
SHOWERS HAS DECREASED, THE AFFECT ON THE GROUND IS THE SAME...
VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN SCTTERED SHOWERS. WITH
DIURNAL FORCING LONG GONE, IT SEEMS THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

6PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SHOWERS
SILL ONGOING THROUGH THE MIDCOAST BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280142
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA. ALOFT A VERY
WEAK VORT MAX VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS. WHILE THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE
SHOWERS HAS DECREASED, THE AFFECT ON THE GROUND IS THE SAME...
VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN SCTTERED SHOWERS. WITH
DIURNAL FORCING LONG GONE, IT SEEMS THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

6PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SHOWERS
SILL ONGOING THROUGH THE MIDCOAST BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 272153
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SHOWERS SILL ONGOING
THROUGH THE MIDCOAST BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
SUNSET.

AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272153
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SHOWERS SILL ONGOING
THROUGH THE MIDCOAST BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
SUNSET.

AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271858
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271858
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271858
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271858
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT MEANDERS NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS PARKED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND
THIS VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST ZONES ALONG
WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE. IT`LL BE WINDIER THEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE. CLOUDS LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT PASS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS...A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT ON TUE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WATERS.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.


LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271700
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1255 PM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE OF 1ST PERIOD GRIDS...I ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT NWS GYX DOPPLER RADAR TREND AND INGESTED THE 17Z
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
1020 AM...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON GOES
IMAGERY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE
WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE STALLED MARITIMES STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EXPAND A BIT IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROGRESSES. I MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.


PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271700
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1255 PM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE OF 1ST PERIOD GRIDS...I ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT NWS GYX DOPPLER RADAR TREND AND INGESTED THE 17Z
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
1020 AM...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON GOES
IMAGERY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE
WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE STALLED MARITIMES STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EXPAND A BIT IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROGRESSES. I MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.


PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271700
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1255 PM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE OF 1ST PERIOD GRIDS...I ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT NWS GYX DOPPLER RADAR TREND AND INGESTED THE 17Z
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
1020 AM...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON GOES
IMAGERY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE
WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE STALLED MARITIMES STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EXPAND A BIT IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROGRESSES. I MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.


PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271700
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1255 PM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE OF 1ST PERIOD GRIDS...I ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT NWS GYX DOPPLER RADAR TREND AND INGESTED THE 17Z
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
1020 AM...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON GOES
IMAGERY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE
WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE STALLED MARITIMES STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EXPAND A BIT IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROGRESSES. I MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.


PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1020 AM...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON GOES
IMAGERY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE
WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE STALLED MARITIMES STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EXPAND A BIT IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROGRESSES. I MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.


PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271430
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1020 AM...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON GOES
IMAGERY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE
WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE STALLED MARITIMES STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EXPAND A BIT IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROGRESSES. I MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.


PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271022 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TODAY TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THANKS TO CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SOUTHERN NH WHERE CLEARING MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM COOLER HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271022 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TODAY TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THANKS TO CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SOUTHERN NH WHERE CLEARING MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM COOLER HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271022 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS NOW ENTERING SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN NH. THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODELS... OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
FOOD SHAPE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TODAY TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THANKS TO CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SOUTHERN NH WHERE CLEARING MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM COOLER HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECWMF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT
WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270741
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TODAY TOWARDS THE GULF
OF MAINE. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THANKS TO CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SOUTHERN NH WHERE CLEARING MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM COOLER HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECMWF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH
RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270741
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TODAY TOWARDS THE GULF
OF MAINE. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THANKS TO CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SOUTHERN NH WHERE CLEARING MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM COOLER HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECMWF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH
RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270741
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TODAY TOWARDS THE GULF
OF MAINE. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND PUSH A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THANKS TO CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SOUTHERN NH WHERE CLEARING MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM COOLER HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT AND PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS OVER NH AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD BE OVER
BY THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE MIDCOAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FLURRIES MAY FALL. TEMPERATURES DROP AS
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NE TO SW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST.

ON TUESDAY SHOWERS STILL LINGER... AS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE TO OUR EAST WE WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNEAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WED. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LESS LIKELY...THOUGH AFTERNOON INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THU...AS UPPER LOW PRES
FROM THE SERN CONUS LOOKS TO DRIFT UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A COMPLEX PATTERN...WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRES...HIGH PRES TO THE N...AND DIGGING
S/WV TROF ON THE BACKSIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE 27.00Z GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING S/WV...ALLOWING SERN UPPER LOW
PRES TO LIFT AND PHASE MUCH FARTHER NWD. THIS IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME...BUT ALSO AN OUTLIER. THE 27.00Z CMC FORECAST
KEEPS OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW CLOSER THRU LATE WEEK...LEAVING LITTLE
ROOM FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWD. FINALLY THE 27.00Z ECMWF
PLAYS THINGS BETWEEN THOSE UPRIGHTS. WEAKER WITH THE BACKSIDE S/WV
AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...THIS ALLOWS A
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ALSO REMAIN WELL S OF OUR AREA.
FAVORED A 40/40/20 ECMWF/CMC/GFS BLEND FOR POP...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS CHANCE SHOWERS CONFINED TO SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEEK. THOUGH NE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH WE SEE THRU THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR TODAY IN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH VFR FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEPART WED...SO ANY
MVFR SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH IN KIND. THE GFS FORECAST OF
COASTAL LOW PRES COMING THIS FAR N IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT...SO WILL FAVOR JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SRN ZONES
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED NELY
FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR A TIME BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS AS WELL AS GOOD RH
RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270426 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

&&

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

.UPDATE...HANES

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270426 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

&&

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

.UPDATE...HANES

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270426 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

&&

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

.UPDATE...HANES

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270426 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY... WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

&&

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

.UPDATE...HANES

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270150
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
950 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

950 PM...THIS IS A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
615 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270150
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
950 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

950 PM...THIS IS A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
615 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262221
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
621 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

615 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 262221
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
621 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

615 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261927
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261927
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261927
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB CLOSE LOW OVER THE MARITIMES PICKS UP A
DECENT WAVE FROM THE SRN STREAM TONIGHT AND ROTATES THE WAVE
AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
THE WRN LOBE OF THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND PULLING THE WHOLE SYSTEM
BACK TO THE SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ONE WEAK WAVE WAVE EXITS SE...SHOULD SEE ANY OF
THE LIGHT SHRA WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET...AS THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE POPPING UP IN AREAS WITH SOME BREAK OF SUN...AND ARE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN. HOWEVER AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO CREST THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW FROM THE NE WILL START TO SEE SHRA
MOVE INTO ERN ZONES AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE MORE POTENT 500MB WAVE PULLS THE LOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SEE SOME BETTER DYNAMICS AND SOME THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL MEAN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CWA
SINCE THIS LOW MOVED IN ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT LKLY TO RAIN ALL
DAY...BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE THERE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE. OVERALL QPF WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. ONCE AGAIN MAXES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S MOST PLACES.

SHRA LINGER MON EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
MARITIMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS CLOSE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY... ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO FAR EASTERN MAINE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY A SPLIT JET STREAM DEVELOPS WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIPPING
SOUTHWARDS TO NEAR GEORGIA AND THEN RETURNING NORTHWARDS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SETS US UP FOR A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW
TRACK... AND INDEED SOME MODELS WOULD LIKE TO BRING A STRONG
COASTAL LOW UP THROUGH THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY THE
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT IN OVER LABRADOR... MEANING THE CLOSED LOW MAY TAKE
LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH OVER 5 DAYS TO GO...WILL
LEAVE IT AT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTE THAT THE WIDELY
VARYING OPTIONS WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DESPITE SHRA WILL SEE VFR VARYING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MON. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEYOND MIDWEEK LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261626
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM...FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST...SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THESE AREAS WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE
BACKING OFF SHRA COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND FAR WRN
ME...KEEPING THE BEST CHC POPS EAST OF LEWISTON AND
BRUNSWICK....WHERE A FEW PASSING SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED. TO THE
WEST...WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD
HAPPEN ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF.

1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS FOR TODAY...WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TEH
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN POPPING UP IN NH AND SW ME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261117
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261117
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
715AM UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. NO OTHER
FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED YET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260759
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260759
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK....WITH THE COOL
AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
PESKY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT THERE IS MORE TO
THIS STORY.

THE BROADER UPPER CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A WHEEL... AN OBLONG SHAPED
ONE... BUT YES A WHEEL. THIS WHEEL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SPOKES WITHIN THE WHEEL
ROTATE AROUND THE WHEEL CENTER. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE SPOKES OF THE WHEEL. HOWEVER... NOT ALL SPOKES
ARE CREATED EQUAL. SOME ARE LARGER OR MORE POTENT THAN OTHERS. AND
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SPOKES DETERMINES WHETHER
THEY WILL PASS BY WITHOUT BEING NOTICED OR WHETHER THEY WILL CAUSE
BIGGER SNAGS (YOUR PICNIC GETS RAINED OUT).

THE NEXT SPOKE TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE
THIS SPOKE IS FAIRLY WEAK IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY... PERFECT TIMING
FOR TRIGGERING SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE STATE LINE.

WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. AS THIS PUSHES INLAND IT WILL CUT OFF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PLACES LIKE PORTLAND
FROM GETTING WET EVENTUALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE SPOKES ANALOGY FROM THE PREVIOUS SECTION...
THE NEXT SPOKE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND NEARING THE MASSACHUSETTS LINE IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY. THIS
SPOKE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST ONE (STRONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN
PULLING THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF BACK WESTWARD) BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THERE IS NO DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FINALLY THE CENTER OF THE WHEEL ITSELF WILL SPIN SOUTHWEST OUT OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN IT WILL BE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
BY MID WEEK.

WHILE WE WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF...HELPING TO KEEP HEIGHTS DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HOW FAR N IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
FEATURE DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THE GFS DEPICTS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING AND A MUCH FARTHER N SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF
AND CMC FAVOR A DELAY AND MORE S AND E SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME I
WILL FAVOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. RIDGING TRIES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT HEADING
THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MAINE AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THRU ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE...ANY POTENTIAL MVFR IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BEYOND
MIDWEEK WILL TEND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE...SO
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEARLY CALM SEAS. WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ESPECIALLY TODAY. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL ALLOW
NORTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE GULF OF MAINE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MAKE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 252228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER MAINE
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY....AND THE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630PM UPDATE... JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT
SHRA/SHSN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT COULD SEE A SPKL/FLRY...MAINLY IN THE KENNEBEC AND
PENOBSCOT VLYS THRU ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOME
CLEARING THIS EVE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
THE MTNS. MINS DROP BACK INTO 30S TONIGHT...AROUND 40 ON THE COAST
AND IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES SWD AROUND THAT CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
PULLS THE LOW BACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALSO TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING SO ANY SHSN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAXES IN THE MTNS...AS GUIDANCE
WAS TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

A STRONGER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT SW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DIMINISHES
BY MID WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING
JUST TO OUR EAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FOR WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD AND PROVIDE A DRY WARM DAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHSN AT KHIE INTO THIS
EVE.  COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE AND FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SRN NH AND SW ME...RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 252228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER MAINE
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY....AND THE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630PM UPDATE... JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT
SHRA/SHSN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT COULD SEE A SPKL/FLRY...MAINLY IN THE KENNEBEC AND
PENOBSCOT VLYS THRU ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOME
CLEARING THIS EVE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
THE MTNS. MINS DROP BACK INTO 30S TONIGHT...AROUND 40 ON THE COAST
AND IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES SWD AROUND THAT CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
PULLS THE LOW BACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALSO TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING SO ANY SHSN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAXES IN THE MTNS...AS GUIDANCE
WAS TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

A STRONGER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT SW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DIMINISHES
BY MID WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING
JUST TO OUR EAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FOR WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD AND PROVIDE A DRY WARM DAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHSN AT KHIE INTO THIS
EVE.  COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE AND FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SRN NH AND SW ME...RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251925
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER MAINE
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY....AND THE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT
SHRA/SHSN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT COULD SEE A SPKL/FLRY...MAINLY IN THE KENNEBEC AND
PENOBSCOT VLYS THRU ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOME
CLEARING THIS EVE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
THE MTNS. MINS DROP BACK INTO 30S TONIGHT...AROUND 40 ON THE COAST
AND IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES SWD AROUND THAT CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
PULLS THE LOW BACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALSO TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING SO ANY SHSN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAXES IN THE MTNS...AS GUIDANCE
WAS TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

A STRONGER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT SW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DIMINISHES
BY MID WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING
JUST TO OUR EAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FOR WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD AND PROVIDE A DRY WARM DAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHSN AT KHIE INTO THIS
EVE.  COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE AND FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SRN NH AND SW ME...RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251925
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER MAINE
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY....AND THE COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES. THE LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT
SHRA/SHSN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT COULD SEE A SPKL/FLRY...MAINLY IN THE KENNEBEC AND
PENOBSCOT VLYS THRU ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOME
CLEARING THIS EVE IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN
THE MTNS. MINS DROP BACK INTO 30S TONIGHT...AROUND 40 ON THE COAST
AND IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES SWD AROUND THAT CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
PULLS THE LOW BACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT MORE
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. ALSO TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING SO ANY SHSN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAXES IN THE MTNS...AS GUIDANCE
WAS TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

A STRONGER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT SW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVES IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DIMINISHES
BY MID WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING
JUST TO OUR EAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FOR WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD AND PROVIDE A DRY WARM DAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MVFR IN SHSN AT KHIE INTO THIS
EVE.  COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN LATER SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS WELL BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE AND FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SRN NH AND SW ME...RH VALUES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM...QUICK UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WHICH FEATURES SOME
ADJUSTING OF POPS...MAINLY TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPKLS OR
FLURRIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE
KENNEBEC/PENOBSCOT VLY REGIONS. SW ME AND SRN HALF OF NH LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS
MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND
SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE
BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/
MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM...QUICK UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WHICH FEATURES SOME
ADJUSTING OF POPS...MAINLY TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPKLS OR
FLURRIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE
KENNEBEC/PENOBSCOT VLY REGIONS. SW ME AND SRN HALF OF NH LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS
MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND
SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE
BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/
MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 251359
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS
MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND
SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE
BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/
MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251359
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS
MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND
SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE
BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/
MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE.

PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT
SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS
ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KIMBLE/KISTNER
MARINE...KIMBLE/KISTNER
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS
ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KIMBLE/KISTNER
MARINE...KIMBLE/KISTNER
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 250716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS
ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KIMBLE/KISTNER
MARINE...KIMBLE/KISTNER
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 250716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS
ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO
ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING
AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE
SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KIMBLE/KISTNER
MARINE...KIMBLE/KISTNER
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE





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