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000
FXUS61 KGYX 020705
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREA RADAR COMPOSITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND EXTENSIVE AREA
OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD FALLING OUT OF A
MID LEVEL DECK BUT VERY LITTLE SHOWING UP IN SURFACE OBS IN THAT
AREA. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THIS
PRECIP OFFSHORE TODAY AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. EXPECT BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY IN COASTAL ZONES
WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SUN AND HIGHEST TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR
80S. CLOUDIER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS
AND SOME OCEAN STRATUS MAY FLIRT WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE 1ST HALF OF THE NIGHT....OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES E ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NGT
INTO MONDAY. AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FNT JUST
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHC OF
SHRA/TSTMS. THE SFC LOW AND FNT MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LEFT IN PLACE COULD
GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS. AN UPPER LVL TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
BRINGS A SFC COLD FNT TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY THEN THE FNT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSTMS
FOR THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE INTENSIFYING
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE GETS CLOSER. ON THURSDAY THE FNT PUSHES OFFSHORE
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA/TSTMS. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ALLOWING A LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE W. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A
DRY WARM DAY ON FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY THIS MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG. VFR TODAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 020705
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREA RADAR COMPOSITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND EXTENSIVE AREA
OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD FALLING OUT OF A
MID LEVEL DECK BUT VERY LITTLE SHOWING UP IN SURFACE OBS IN THAT
AREA. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THIS
PRECIP OFFSHORE TODAY AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. EXPECT BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY IN COASTAL ZONES
WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SUN AND HIGHEST TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR
80S. CLOUDIER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS
AND SOME OCEAN STRATUS MAY FLIRT WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE 1ST HALF OF THE NIGHT....OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES E ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NGT
INTO MONDAY. AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FNT JUST
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHC OF
SHRA/TSTMS. THE SFC LOW AND FNT MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LEFT IN PLACE COULD
GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS. AN UPPER LVL TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
BRINGS A SFC COLD FNT TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY THEN THE FNT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SHRA/TSTMS
FOR THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE INTENSIFYING
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE GETS CLOSER. ON THURSDAY THE FNT PUSHES OFFSHORE
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA/TSTMS. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ALLOWING A LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE W. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A
DRY WARM DAY ON FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY THIS MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG. VFR TODAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 020700
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREA RADAR COMPOSITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND EXTENSIVE AREA
OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD FALLING OUT OF A
MID LEVEL DECK BUT VERY LITTLE SHOWING UP IN SURFACE OBS IN THAT
AREA. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THIS
PRECIP OFFSHORE TODAY AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. EXPECT BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY IN COASTAL ZONES
WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SUN AND HIGHEST TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR
80S. CLOUDIER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS
AND SOME OCEAN STRATUS MAY FLIRT WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE 1ST HALF OF THE NIGHT....OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY THIS MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG. VFR TODAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KGYX 020700
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREA RADAR COMPOSITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND EXTENSIVE AREA
OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD FALLING OUT OF A
MID LEVEL DECK BUT VERY LITTLE SHOWING UP IN SURFACE OBS IN THAT
AREA. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THIS
PRECIP OFFSHORE TODAY AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. EXPECT BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY IN COASTAL ZONES
WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LACK OF
FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. NORTHERN ZONES
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SUN AND HIGHEST TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR
80S. CLOUDIER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS
AND SOME OCEAN STRATUS MAY FLIRT WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE 1ST HALF OF THE NIGHT....OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY THIS MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG. VFR TODAY. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KGYX 020126
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
926 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER SOUTHERNMOST NH
OR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN A
STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ALOFT...SOME OF THE
PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER TIME. THE GFS AND SOMEWHAT THE
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SW MAINE BY SATURDAY...WITH A COUPLE OTHER MODELS
IN A DRIER CAMP. WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY INCREASED
POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE COORDINATED POPS
WITH WFO BOX.

PREV DISC...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE
TYPICAL OF THE CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
NH AND SW MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM
THE SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 020126
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
926 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER SOUTHERNMOST NH
OR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN A
STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ALOFT...SOME OF THE
PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER TIME. THE GFS AND SOMEWHAT THE
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SW MAINE BY SATURDAY...WITH A COUPLE OTHER MODELS
IN A DRIER CAMP. WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY INCREASED
POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE COORDINATED POPS
WITH WFO BOX.

PREV DISC...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE
TYPICAL OF THE CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
NH AND SW MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM
THE SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 012238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE STRADDLE THE SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY
COASTLINE. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY HEAD OUT THROUGH OUR COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK WITH TIME ALOFT...SOME OF THE PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER TIME. THE GFS AND SOMEWHAT THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SW MAINE BY SATURDAY...WITH A COUPLE OTHER MODELS
IN A DRIER CAMP. WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY INCREASED
POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISC...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE
TYPICAL OF THE CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
NH AND SW MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM
THE SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 012238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE STRADDLE THE SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY
COASTLINE. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY HEAD OUT THROUGH OUR COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WINDS BACK WITH TIME ALOFT...SOME OF THE PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER TIME. THE GFS AND SOMEWHAT THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SW MAINE BY SATURDAY...WITH A COUPLE OTHER MODELS
IN A DRIER CAMP. WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY INCREASED
POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISC...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE
TYPICAL OF THE CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
NH AND SW MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM
THE SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 011903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW DRIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE
CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NH AND SW
MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO










000
FXUS61 KGYX 011903
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW DRIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE
CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NH AND SW
MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN
SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR
W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN
HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.

TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND
ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST
DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 011521 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
INCREASED PORTLAND`S HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS THEY
ARE ALREADY AT 76 DEGREES. A FEW CLOUDS STILL DRIFTING BY WITH
STRATUS STILL ENTRENCHED IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND
LIFTING SLOWLY. CUMULUS IS SLOW TO BUILD SO FAR TODAY BUT SHOULD
START SOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ON THIS MORNINGS KGYX
SOUNDING AT 79 DEGREES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT
IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER
CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES








000
FXUS61 KGYX 011521 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
INCREASED PORTLAND`S HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS THEY
ARE ALREADY AT 76 DEGREES. A FEW CLOUDS STILL DRIFTING BY WITH
STRATUS STILL ENTRENCHED IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND
LIFTING SLOWLY. CUMULUS IS SLOW TO BUILD SO FAR TODAY BUT SHOULD
START SOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ON THIS MORNINGS KGYX
SOUNDING AT 79 DEGREES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT
IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER
CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 011217 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
817 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT
IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER
CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES







000
FXUS61 KGYX 011217 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
817 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT
IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER
CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES






000
FXUS61 KGYX 010648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 010648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 010133
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...WITH PERHAPS A CORRIDOR FROM WELLS TO PSM KEEPING THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH 03Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AS THEY DRY UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
GRIDS. HAVE REMOVED ANY ENHANCED WORDING AND UPDATED THE HWO.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
JC







000
FXUS61 KGYX 010133
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...WITH PERHAPS A CORRIDOR FROM WELLS TO PSM KEEPING THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH 03Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AS THEY DRY UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...DEW POINT AND CLOUD
GRIDS. HAVE REMOVED ANY ENHANCED WORDING AND UPDATED THE HWO.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
JC






000
FXUS61 KGYX 312136
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINE TO EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BY AROUND
SUNSET.

A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE EUSTIS AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 312136
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINE TO EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OF
MAINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BY AROUND
SUNSET.

A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE EUSTIS AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISC...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 311904
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KGYX 311904
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM.
SLOW HEATING HAS OCCURRED TODAY BENEATH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS NH. THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THE STATE FROM REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FARTHER E READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINE. FOR NOW THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH
HEIGHT...BUT WITH TIME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
UPDRAFT GROWTH. EXPECT THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. A FEW LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE MAIN FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH
ONE CELL BRIEFLY ATTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL. FEEL
THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS NH AND THEN MAINE THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 01 OR 02Z.

VARIOUS CONVECTIVE TOOLS...INCLUDING SPC SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS...RAPIDLY WEAKEN STORMS AFTER SUNSET. POP FORECAST DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG
OCCURS INLAND...WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS RELOADING FROM THE
MIDCOAST DOWN TO KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT AT H5 ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGER CAP THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LID ON ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...PRECLUDING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY
EITHER...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF TSTMS DOWN.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE S. SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU SUNRISE...BUT HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POP
SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN NH BY 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH THE NORTHEAST BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEVERAL MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOSTLY DURING PEAK HEATING. COOL AIR ALOFT ALSO KEEPS THE
ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOW
LEVELS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK GETS PRETTY REDUNDANT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY... WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE... AND AS SUCH... THE NAM WIND FIELDS WOULD INDICATE SOME
PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD SEE A WEAK SPIN UP... BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS
DRAMATIC OF A WARM FRONT.

GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMES BROADER AND LESS AMPLIFIED MONDAY...
BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY END AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKIES CLEARING. ANY VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AS VALLEY FOG WILL BE QUICK TO SET IN WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDCOAST
BY 03Z. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...LINGERING
INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS NH. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GRAZE THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 311430 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...CLOUD COVER LEADING THE APPROACHING S/WV TROF WILL
INHIBIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS WRN NH TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. THAT BEING SAID...VIGOROUS S/WV WILL STILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WX. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING IN ERN NY...AND FURTHER DAYTIME
HEATING...HOWEVER MINIMAL...WILL ONLY LEAD TO CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PLACEMENT OF FORCING THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BLENDED IN THE
LATEST RUNS TO THE TODAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 311103
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DENSE FOG STILL
PRESENT IN A LOT OF AREAS AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 9 AM.

530 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND
COUNTY ON NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A 1/4 MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD THIN AND LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 311103
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
703 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DENSE FOG STILL
PRESENT IN A LOT OF AREAS AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 9 AM.

530 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND
COUNTY ON NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A 1/4 MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD THIN AND LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE








000
FXUS61 KGYX 310936
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND
COUNTY ON NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A 1/4 MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD THIN AND LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE






000
FXUS61 KGYX 310936
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
536 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND
COUNTY ON NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A 1/4 MILE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD THIN AND LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.

PREVIOUSLY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 310751
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE






000
FXUS61 KGYX 310751
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CAPE VALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT ANOMALOUSLY
LOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -17C/ AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS
PUSH INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. IN
ADDITION...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SEVERAL MODES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY...WITH FIRST PREFERENCE GIVEN
TO NH AS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF THE CWA FIRST. HOWEVER...A FEW
CELLS MAY INITIATE IN MAINE AROUND THAT TIME ALONG SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

EARLY ON IN THE MORNING...STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
PRESENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CWA NORTHEAST OF
PORTLAND. THIS SHOULD LIFT EARLY ON THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIR...WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
LATE.

ON FRIDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL SFC FLOW TO AID IN A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY AND ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. NET RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AFFECTING THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE WET SATURDAY SCENARIO...SO PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEKEND ON SAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF
TO THE EAST AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COOL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RKD MAY HOLD ONTO IFR
LONGER...PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY SFC WINDS...AND HAIL. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME FOG AND STRATUS...BUT CHANCES
APPEAR LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 310127 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. OTHER CHANGES WERE
RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO TREND THINGS A
LITTLE COOLER MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 310127 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. OTHER CHANGES WERE
RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO TREND THINGS A
LITTLE COOLER MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 302232 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...SEA BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND IN COMBINATION WITH VARIOUS
LAKE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE IN THE LLVLS. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHRA INVOF OF
THE SEA BREEZE FNT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...WHICH
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO









000
FXUS61 KGYX 302232 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...SEA BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND IN COMBINATION WITH VARIOUS
LAKE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE IN THE LLVLS. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHRA INVOF OF
THE SEA BREEZE FNT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...WHICH
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO








000
FXUS61 KGYX 301934
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING SOME SHRA OVER ERN
ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE LINE EXTENDING SSW.
THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS AND SHOULD DRIFT
NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA/HANES









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301600
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FNTGNS AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...











000
FXUS61 KGYX 301600
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FNTGNS AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...












000
FXUS61 KGYX 301535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...











000
FXUS61 KGYX 301535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...










000
FXUS61 KGYX 301503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME
THUNDER AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KGYX 301503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME
THUNDER AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE











000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE










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