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000
FXUS61 KGYX 180840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 180840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 180402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1100 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 180402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1100 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 180035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 172032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 171459 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE INPUT LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...TRENDING
TOWARDS HI-RES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN GENERAL
THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA AOA FREEZING. FOR THIS REASON I WILL
DROP THE FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ZONES. WINTER WX ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY FOR A RASN MIX TURNING TO SNWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM SN LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 KFT...CONFIRMED VIA
DUAL-POL DATA AND VERTICALLY POINTED PLYMOUTH STATE RADAR. THIS
MATCHES KMWN OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE SNWFL...BUT RNFL AT OTHER
REPORTING STATIONS. RADAR ALSO EXHIBITS A GOOD UPSLOPE
SIGNAL...WITH HIGHER DBZ VALUES ADJACENT TO TERRAIN. HAVE TRIED TO
PUT THIS IN THE QPF GRIDS USING MODELED MID LEVEL WINDS AS
FORCING. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME DYNAMIC COOLING AS AIR
RISES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A FASTER CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNWFL IN
THE MTNS AS UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPS BEGIN COOLING ALOFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREAS OF FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN
MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 171459 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE INPUT LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...TRENDING
TOWARDS HI-RES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN GENERAL
THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA AOA FREEZING. FOR THIS REASON I WILL
DROP THE FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ZONES. WINTER WX ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY FOR A RASN MIX TURNING TO SNWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREAS OF FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN
MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 171459 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE INPUT LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...TRENDING
TOWARDS HI-RES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN GENERAL
THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA AOA FREEZING. FOR THIS REASON I WILL
DROP THE FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ZONES. WINTER WX ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY FOR A RASN MIX TURNING TO SNWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM SN LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 KFT...CONFIRMED VIA
DUAL-POL DATA AND VERTICALLY POINTED PLYMOUTH STATE RADAR. THIS
MATCHES KMWN OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE SNWFL...BUT RNFL AT OTHER
REPORTING STATIONS. RADAR ALSO EXHIBITS A GOOD UPSLOPE
SIGNAL...WITH HIGHER DBZ VALUES ADJACENT TO TERRAIN. HAVE TRIED TO
PUT THIS IN THE QPF GRIDS USING MODELED MID LEVEL WINDS AS
FORCING. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME DYNAMIC COOLING AS AIR
RISES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A FASTER CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNWFL IN
THE MTNS AS UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPS BEGIN COOLING ALOFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREAS OF FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN
MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 171459 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE INPUT LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...TRENDING
TOWARDS HI-RES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN GENERAL
THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA AOA FREEZING. FOR THIS REASON I WILL
DROP THE FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ZONES. WINTER WX ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY FOR A RASN MIX TURNING TO SNWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREAS OF FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN
MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 170812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREAS OF
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS
REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-
     005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREAS OF
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS
REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-
     005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 170812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREAS OF
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS
REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-
     005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREAS OF
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS
REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-
     005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 170346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 170346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 170346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
750 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
750 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 162107
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
407 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 162107
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
407 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 161642
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1142 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM...THE VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF DZ/FZDZ/SN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...MOSTLY IN ME...THIS AM.
THE SN IS MAINLY BEING REPORTED E OF KAUG. TEMPS ARE SLOWLY RISING
AS WELL AND EXPECT MOST OF THIS AREA TO GET ABV FREEZING BY 18Z.
THIS OCCNL VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW IN THE EAST CHANGING TO DZ THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL.


PREVIOUSLY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE
CHANCE OF A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY
AS THE MOIST MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A
CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM
THE E. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE
THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED
THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER
THE OCEAN.

CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE
TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/
COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY
DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE
SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 161642
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1142 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM...THE VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF DZ/FZDZ/SN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...MOSTLY IN ME...THIS AM.
THE SN IS MAINLY BEING REPORTED E OF KAUG. TEMPS ARE SLOWLY RISING
AS WELL AND EXPECT MOST OF THIS AREA TO GET ABV FREEZING BY 18Z.
THIS OCCNL VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW IN THE EAST CHANGING TO DZ THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL.


PREVIOUSLY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE
CHANCE OF A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY
AS THE MOIST MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A
CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM
THE E. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE
THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED
THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER
THE OCEAN.

CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE
TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/
COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY
DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE
SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 160944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS THE MOIST
MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A CLOUDY DAY
EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM THE E.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE
THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED
THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER
THE OCEAN.

CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE
TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/
COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY
DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE
SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 160944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS THE MOIST
MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A CLOUDY DAY
EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM THE E.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE
THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED
THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER
THE OCEAN.

CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE
TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/
COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY
DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE
SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 160843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS THE MOIST
MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A CLOUDY DAY
EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM THE E.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SSPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE
THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED
THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER
THE OCEAN.

CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE
TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/
COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY
DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE
SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 160843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS THE MOIST
MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A CLOUDY DAY
EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM THE E.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SSPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE
THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED
THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER
THE OCEAN.

CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE
TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/
COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY
DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE
SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 160821
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS THE MOIST
MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A CLOUDY DAY
EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM THE E.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SSPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE
THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED
THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER
THE OCEAN.

CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE
TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/
COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY
DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE
SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 160821
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS THE MOIST
MARITIME AIR MASS DEEPENS. NEEDLESS TO DAY BUT A CLOUDY DAY
EXPECTED. THE STRATUS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS WELL AND WILL BE JOINED WITH THIS MOISTURE FROM THE E.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT A SFC/UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPAWNING A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SSPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS PROFILE TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A MIXED PTYPE WILL BE EXPECTED. SINCE
THERE WILL BE A MIX EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. USED
THE RFCQPF FOR PCPN AND SUPERBLEND FOR POPS/TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION WILL CHANGE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN ONGOING IN BETWEEN. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MILDER AIR OVER
THE OCEAN.

CURRENT DATA INDICATING QPF AMOUNTS VARYING WIDELY BUT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 4-6" OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF COOS/OXFORD/FRANKLIN/SOMERSET
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD SEE A LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. USING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ICE
TOOL GIVES LESS ICE THAN TRADITIONAL MEANS... WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TRULY ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE STORM.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE GUSTY NW FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH/
COASTAL STORM FORMING AND CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK MONDAY
DECEMBER 23. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT MOISTURE
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE
SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SELY ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THUS A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE...MAINLY FOR WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 160244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
945 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
945 PM UPDATE...STRATUS CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ON THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

640 PM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RING OF
LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA REMAIN IN PLACE...SEEMINGLY
MOVING VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN MORE LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC TURNS A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WILL PERHAPS HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROB OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE COAST TOWARD DAWN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THAT AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS CLEARING LINE TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS
SFC RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE ME COAST. COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS START TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAD TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO MACHINE MINS...AND FOUND THAT NAMDNG MAY HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN THE N...KEEPING MINS UP...AND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE S ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAD COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WILL SEE MORE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOP AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT. COMBINE THIS WITH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND LOOK
FOR M/CDY SKIES EARLY AND OVERCAST BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DZ
OR LIGHT RA DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT ON THE COAST...OR
PERHAPS IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS INLAND.

WEAKLY CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW TRACKS WNW FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
WARM FRONT CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA IN INLAND AREAS LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH JUST RAIN ON THE COAST.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS GENERALLY.
SHOULD WARM UP ABV ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE
THIS SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THRU OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ALOFT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
LIGHT SN IN THE N LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES DRIFTS TO A POSITION IN NRN ME ON THU.
COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHSN FOR THE MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND WPC QPF WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. COULD BE A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNWFL EVENT FOR THE MTNS...GIVEN THIS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOW POSITION.

SENSIBLE WX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA AND HOLDS THRU AT LEAST
SAT. THEN THINGS BEGIN LOOKING FAIRLY INTERESTING SUN INTO MON. A
S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN STREAM WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
AND DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. ATTM THE ECMWF IS ROBUST WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT...AS IS THE CMC...THOUGH JUST TOO FAR S TO BRING
APPRECIABLE QPF TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER THIS IS A TYPICAL GFS BIAS AT THIS TIME
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEAN MSLP IS NW OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN IS SE OF
OTHER GUIDANCE STILL...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NW OF THE LOW
TRACK. THE ECMWF EPS MEAN IS ACTUALLY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FOR AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. MEAN QPF FOR KPWM IS
ROUGHLY 0.50 INCHES. ATTM THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TRENDING NWD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE UPPER HALF OF CHANCE.
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE WEIGHTING THINGS TOWARDS ZERO POP...SO AS
A NOD TO THE ENSEMBLES I USED MORE OF THE WPC POP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY COULD CHANGE
GIVEN THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT AT A MINIMUM...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVE...BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. SHOULD SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK OR WED
MORNING...SHIFT TO IFR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH FZRA/SN OR RA TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY THU...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THU INTO FRI.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 160244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
945 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
945 PM UPDATE...STRATUS CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ON THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

640 PM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RING OF
LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA REMAIN IN PLACE...SEEMINGLY
MOVING VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN MORE LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC TURNS A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WILL PERHAPS HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROB OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE COAST TOWARD DAWN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THAT AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS CLEARING LINE TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS
SFC RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE ME COAST. COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS START TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAD TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO MACHINE MINS...AND FOUND THAT NAMDNG MAY HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN THE N...KEEPING MINS UP...AND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE S ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAD COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WILL SEE MORE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOP AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT. COMBINE THIS WITH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND LOOK
FOR M/CDY SKIES EARLY AND OVERCAST BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DZ
OR LIGHT RA DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT ON THE COAST...OR
PERHAPS IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS INLAND.

WEAKLY CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW TRACKS WNW FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
WARM FRONT CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA IN INLAND AREAS LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH JUST RAIN ON THE COAST.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS GENERALLY.
SHOULD WARM UP ABV ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE
THIS SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THRU OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ALOFT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
LIGHT SN IN THE N LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES DRIFTS TO A POSITION IN NRN ME ON THU.
COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHSN FOR THE MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND WPC QPF WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. COULD BE A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNWFL EVENT FOR THE MTNS...GIVEN THIS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOW POSITION.

SENSIBLE WX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA AND HOLDS THRU AT LEAST
SAT. THEN THINGS BEGIN LOOKING FAIRLY INTERESTING SUN INTO MON. A
S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN STREAM WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
AND DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. ATTM THE ECMWF IS ROBUST WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT...AS IS THE CMC...THOUGH JUST TOO FAR S TO BRING
APPRECIABLE QPF TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER THIS IS A TYPICAL GFS BIAS AT THIS TIME
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEAN MSLP IS NW OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN IS SE OF
OTHER GUIDANCE STILL...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NW OF THE LOW
TRACK. THE ECMWF EPS MEAN IS ACTUALLY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FOR AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. MEAN QPF FOR KPWM IS
ROUGHLY 0.50 INCHES. ATTM THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TRENDING NWD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE UPPER HALF OF CHANCE.
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE WEIGHTING THINGS TOWARDS ZERO POP...SO AS
A NOD TO THE ENSEMBLES I USED MORE OF THE WPC POP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY COULD CHANGE
GIVEN THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT AT A MINIMUM...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVE...BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. SHOULD SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK OR WED
MORNING...SHIFT TO IFR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH FZRA/SN OR RA TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY THU...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THU INTO FRI.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 152343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
640 PM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RING OF
LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA REMAIN IN PLACE...SEEMINGLY
MOVING VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN MORE LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC TURNS A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WILL PERHAPS HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROB OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE COAST TOWARD DAWN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THAT AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS CLEARING LINE TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS
SFC RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE ME COAST. COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS START TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAD TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO MACHINE MINS...AND FOUND THAT NAMDNG MAY HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN THE N...KEEPING MINS UP...AND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE S ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAD COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WILL SEE MORE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOP AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT. COMBINE THIS WITH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND LOOK
FOR M/CDY SKIES EARLY AND OVERCAST BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DZ
OR LIGHT RA DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT ON THE COAST...OR
PERHAPS IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS INLAND.

WEAKLY CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW TRACKS WNW FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
WARM FRONT CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA IN INLAND AREAS LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH JUST RAIN ON THE COAST.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS GENERALLY.
SHOULD WARM UP ABV ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE
THIS SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THRU OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ALOFT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
LIGHT SN IN THE N LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES DRIFTS TO A POSITION IN NRN ME ON THU.
COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHSN FOR THE MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND WPC QPF WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. COULD BE A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNWFL EVENT FOR THE MTNS...GIVEN THIS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOW POSITION.

SENSIBLE WX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA AND HOLDS THRU AT LEAST
SAT. THEN THINGS BEGIN LOOKING FAIRLY INTERESTING SUN INTO MON. A
S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN STREAM WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
AND DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. ATTM THE ECMWF IS ROBUST WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT...AS IS THE CMC...THOUGH JUST TOO FAR S TO BRING
APPRECIABLE QPF TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER THIS IS A TYPICAL GFS BIAS AT THIS TIME
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEAN MSLP IS NW OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN IS SE OF
OTHER GUIDANCE STILL...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NW OF THE LOW
TRACK. THE ECMWF EPS MEAN IS ACTUALLY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FOR AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. MEAN QPF FOR KPWM IS
ROUGHLY 0.50 INCHES. ATTM THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TRENDING NWD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE UPPER HALF OF CHANCE.
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE WEIGHTING THINGS TOWARDS ZERO POP...SO AS
A NOD TO THE ENSEMBLES I USED MORE OF THE WPC POP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY COULD CHANGE
GIVEN THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT AT A MINIMUM...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVE...BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. SHOULD SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK OR WED
MORNING...SHIFT TO IFR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH FZRA/SN OR RA TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY THU...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THU INTO FRI.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 152343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
640 PM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RING OF
LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA REMAIN IN PLACE...SEEMINGLY
MOVING VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN MORE LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC TURNS A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WILL PERHAPS HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROB OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE COAST TOWARD DAWN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THAT AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS CLEARING LINE TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS
SFC RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE ME COAST. COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS START TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAD TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO MACHINE MINS...AND FOUND THAT NAMDNG MAY HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN THE N...KEEPING MINS UP...AND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE S ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAD COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WILL SEE MORE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOP AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT. COMBINE THIS WITH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND LOOK
FOR M/CDY SKIES EARLY AND OVERCAST BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DZ
OR LIGHT RA DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT ON THE COAST...OR
PERHAPS IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS INLAND.

WEAKLY CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW TRACKS WNW FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
WARM FRONT CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA IN INLAND AREAS LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH JUST RAIN ON THE COAST.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS GENERALLY.
SHOULD WARM UP ABV ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE
THIS SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THRU OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ALOFT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
LIGHT SN IN THE N LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES DRIFTS TO A POSITION IN NRN ME ON THU.
COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHSN FOR THE MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND WPC QPF WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. COULD BE A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNWFL EVENT FOR THE MTNS...GIVEN THIS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOW POSITION.

SENSIBLE WX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA AND HOLDS THRU AT LEAST
SAT. THEN THINGS BEGIN LOOKING FAIRLY INTERESTING SUN INTO MON. A
S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN STREAM WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
AND DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. ATTM THE ECMWF IS ROBUST WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT...AS IS THE CMC...THOUGH JUST TOO FAR S TO BRING
APPRECIABLE QPF TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER THIS IS A TYPICAL GFS BIAS AT THIS TIME
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEAN MSLP IS NW OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN IS SE OF
OTHER GUIDANCE STILL...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NW OF THE LOW
TRACK. THE ECMWF EPS MEAN IS ACTUALLY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FOR AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. MEAN QPF FOR KPWM IS
ROUGHLY 0.50 INCHES. ATTM THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TRENDING NWD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE UPPER HALF OF CHANCE.
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE WEIGHTING THINGS TOWARDS ZERO POP...SO AS
A NOD TO THE ENSEMBLES I USED MORE OF THE WPC POP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY COULD CHANGE
GIVEN THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT AT A MINIMUM...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVE...BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. SHOULD SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK OR WED
MORNING...SHIFT TO IFR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH FZRA/SN OR RA TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY THU...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THU INTO FRI.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 152054
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
354 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS CLEARING LINE TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS
SFC RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE ME COAST. COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS START TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAD TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO MACHINE MINS...AND FOUND THAT NAMDNG MAY HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN THE N...KEEPING MINS UP...AND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE S ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAD COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WILL SEE MORE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOP AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT. COMBINE THIS WITH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND LOOK
FOR M/CDY SKIES EARLY AND OVERCAST BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DZ
OR LIGHT RA DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT ON THE COAST...OR
PERHAPS IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS INLAND.

WEAKLY CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW TRACKS WNW FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
WARM FRONT CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA IN INLAND AREAS LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH JUST RAIN ON THE COAST.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS GENERALLY.
SHOULD WARM UP ABV ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE
THIS SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THRU OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ALOFT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
LIGHT SN IN THE N LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES DRIFTS TO A POSITION IN NRN ME ON THU.
COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHSN FOR THE MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND WPC QPF WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. COULD BE A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNWFL EVENT FOR THE MTNS...GIVEN THIS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOW POSITION.

SENSIBLE WX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA AND HOLDS THRU AT LEAST
SAT. THEN THINGS BEGIN LOOKING FAIRLY INTERESTING SUN INTO MON. A
S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN STREAM WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
AND DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. ATTM THE ECMWF IS ROBUST WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT...AS IS THE CMC...THOUGH JUST TOO FAR S TO BRING
APPRECIABLE QPF TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER THIS IS A TYPICAL GFS BIAS AT THIS TIME
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEAN MSLP IS NW OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN IS SE OF
OTHER GUIDANCE STILL...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NW OF THE LOW
TRACK. THE ECMWF EPS MEAN IS ACTUALLY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FOR AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. MEAN QPF FOR KPWM IS
ROUGHLY 0.50 INCHES. ATTM THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TRENDING NWD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE UPPER HALF OF CHANCE.
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE WEIGHTING THINGS TOWARDS ZERO POP...SO AS
A NOD TO THE ENSEMBLES I USED MORE OF THE WPC POP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY COULD CHANGE
GIVEN THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT AT A MINIMUM...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVE...BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. SHOULD SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK OR WED
MORNING...SHIFT TO IFR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH FACER OR RA TUE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY THU...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THU INTO FRI.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 152054
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
354 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS CLEARING LINE TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS
SFC RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE ME COAST. COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS START TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAD TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO MACHINE MINS...AND FOUND THAT NAMDNG MAY HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN THE N...KEEPING MINS UP...AND
CLEAR SKIES IN THE S ALLOWING FOR BETTER RAD COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WILL SEE MORE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOP AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT. COMBINE THIS WITH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND LOOK
FOR M/CDY SKIES EARLY AND OVERCAST BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DZ
OR LIGHT RA DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT ON THE COAST...OR
PERHAPS IN THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS INLAND.

WEAKLY CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW TRACKS WNW FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
WARM FRONT CROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA IN INLAND AREAS LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH JUST RAIN ON THE COAST.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS GENERALLY.
SHOULD WARM UP ABV ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE
THIS SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THRU OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ALOFT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
LIGHT SN IN THE N LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES DRIFTS TO A POSITION IN NRN ME ON THU.
COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHSN FOR THE MTNS. USED A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND WPC QPF WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. COULD BE A LONGER
DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNWFL EVENT FOR THE MTNS...GIVEN THIS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOW POSITION.

SENSIBLE WX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA AND HOLDS THRU AT LEAST
SAT. THEN THINGS BEGIN LOOKING FAIRLY INTERESTING SUN INTO MON. A
S/WV TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN STREAM WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
AND DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND. ATTM THE ECMWF IS ROBUST WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT...AS IS THE CMC...THOUGH JUST TOO FAR S TO BRING
APPRECIABLE QPF TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER THIS IS A TYPICAL GFS BIAS AT THIS TIME
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEAN MSLP IS NW OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN IS SE OF
OTHER GUIDANCE STILL...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD NW OF THE LOW
TRACK. THE ECMWF EPS MEAN IS ACTUALLY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FOR AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. MEAN QPF FOR KPWM IS
ROUGHLY 0.50 INCHES. ATTM THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TRENDING NWD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE UPPER HALF OF CHANCE.
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE WEIGHTING THINGS TOWARDS ZERO POP...SO AS
A NOD TO THE ENSEMBLES I USED MORE OF THE WPC POP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY COULD CHANGE
GIVEN THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT AT A MINIMUM...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVE...BUT NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT. SHOULD SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK OR WED
MORNING...SHIFT TO IFR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH FACER OR RA TUE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT COASTAL PLAIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY THU...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING IFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...GUSTY WLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THU INTO FRI.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 151652
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1152 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM...UPDATE TO BRING MAX T UP A BIT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF SUN...AND BRING THEM DOWN A BIT IN THE
MTNS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCKED IN. NW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND LOW SUN ANGLE IS NOT
LKLY TO MIX OUT THE CLOUDS MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING SW
BOUNDARY LYR FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE MAY HELP OUT LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

615 AM UPDATE: NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WRN NH WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECTING THESE LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE  MIXES OUT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY. A TRAPPED LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF ME/NH AND EXTENDS THROUGH
WESTERN NH WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...ELSEWHERE SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. STAYED CLOSE TO
GUID FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SFC/UPR HIGH PRES AXIS WILL EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE FA AND WILL
START OUT THE NIGHT GIVING CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MOIST ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE MID/HI CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE W THAT WILL SPILL ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SCT
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY OVER SRN AREAS MAINLY DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUID FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES SKEWED WITH PARENT
LOW PRESSURE HANGING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH SWINGING OUT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC. AN OPEN WAVE
TRAVELING ALONG THE TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE LOW TRIES TO FORM ALONG THE NH SEACOAST. WHETHER THIS
CIRCULATION FORMS FULLY OR NOT... ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SOME
LIFT TO THE REGION. WARM AIR MOVING OVER A COLDER SURFACE WILL
INTRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WINTRY MIX OVER THE INTERIOR AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. A MIX WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING
THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT STILL THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A MESSY COMMUTE.

THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE. WE WILL SEE RESIDUAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DAILY HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH TO THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH. COLD AIR BECOMES DAMMED TO THE NORTH...AND AREAS ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A GUSTY FRIDAY POST FRONTAL... HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDS ELSEWHERE. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUE CONDS TO REMAIN
VFR. BY TUE AFTERNOON VFR CONDS MAY BECOME MVFR IN ANY DEVELOPING
SCT SHWRS.

LONG TERM...BEGINNING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR OR WORSE...ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND TERMINALS IN FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN FOR COASTAL SITES. POOR
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE FORMATION
OF ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND PASS NEAR THE
WATERS IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SEAS SHOULD
STAY NEAR 5 FT OVER THE OUT WATERS BUT WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30
KTS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 151652
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1152 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND EXITING LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM...UPDATE TO BRING MAX T UP A BIT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF SUN...AND BRING THEM DOWN A BIT IN THE
MTNS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCKED IN. NW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND LOW SUN ANGLE IS NOT
LKLY TO MIX OUT THE CLOUDS MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING SW
BOUNDARY LYR FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE MAY HELP OUT LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

615 AM UPDATE: NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WRN NH WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECTING THESE LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE  MIXES OUT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY. A TRAPPED LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF ME/NH AND EXTENDS THROUGH
WESTERN NH WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...ELSEWHERE SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. STAYED CLOSE TO
GUID FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SFC/UPR HIGH PRES AXIS WILL EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE FA AND WILL
START OUT THE NIGHT GIVING CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MOIST ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE MID/HI CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE W THAT WILL SPILL ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SCT
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY OVER SRN AREAS MAINLY DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUID FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES SKEWED WITH PARENT
LOW PRESSURE HANGING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH SWINGING OUT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC. AN OPEN WAVE
TRAVELING ALONG THE TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE LOW TRIES TO FORM ALONG THE NH SEACOAST. WHETHER THIS
CIRCULATION FORMS FULLY OR NOT... ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SOME
LIFT TO THE REGION. WARM AIR MOVING OVER A COLDER SURFACE WILL
INTRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WINTRY MIX OVER THE INTERIOR AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. A MIX WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING
THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT STILL THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE A MESSY COMMUTE.

THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE. WE WILL SEE RESIDUAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DAILY HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH TO THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH. COLD AIR BECOMES DAMMED TO THE NORTH...AND AREAS ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A GUSTY FRIDAY POST FRONTAL... HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AT KLEB/KHIE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDS ELSEWHERE. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUE CONDS TO REMAIN
VFR. BY TUE AFTERNOON VFR CONDS MAY BECOME MVFR IN ANY DEVELOPING
SCT SHWRS.

LONG TERM...BEGINNING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR OR WORSE...ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND TERMINALS IN FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN FOR COASTAL SITES. POOR
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE FORMATION
OF ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND PASS NEAR THE
WATERS IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SEAS SHOULD
STAY NEAR 5 FT OVER THE OUT WATERS BUT WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30
KTS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




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