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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301119
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 300709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 300126
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
926 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE: LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA EXCEPT
OVER WRN AND NRN NH. PATCHY FOG AND DRZL WILL BE DVLPG OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND LOWERED POPS THRU MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT TIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SOME IMPROVEMENT...IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL BE AS SFC FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND 500MB LOW TRACKS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. SFC FLOW WILL HOLD NE AND WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER
LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL
STILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS. AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPOTTY DZ...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING AS THE COLD AIR LYR DEEPENS...AND THE MIXING WILL
ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN TUE...MAINLY 60 TO
65 IN MOST SPOTS. THE CT VLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MOST SUNNY AND
THE WARMEST AS THE DOWNSLOPE DRIES THINGS OUT.

ON THU...COMPACT AND WEAK 500MB REX BLOCK IS OVER THE
REGION. AGAIN WILL LIKE SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY FRIDAY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND LOW HEAD EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE S FLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
ON THE SUNNIER OTHER...OTHER THAN CIRRUS LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT...AS IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND THEN
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AND SHIFTS NE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY....WHILE MAIN UPPR LVL HEADS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT RAFL INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 12Z EURO EVEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR RUNS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS PRES IN FORM THE S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NE TO
NR 25 KT THROUGH 22Z VCNTY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT...THEN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IMPROVING
TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN DZ/FG TUE MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KLEB/KHIE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER ON TUE
ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT RESTRICITIONS...COULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS WED
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN FOR THU/FRI. SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LKLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE: INCREASED SEAS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SWANNAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD FIT AS SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND
7 FT. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GUSTY NE FLOW PERSISTS WED INTO THU...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA LVLS. SEAS MAY COME UP ABV 5 FT AGAIN ON THU AS SWELL
FROM COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE S MOVES IN. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW
FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT TIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SOME IMPROVEMENT...IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL BE AS SFC FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND 500MB LOW TRACKS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. SFC FLOW WILL HOLD NE AND WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER
LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL
STILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS. AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPOTTY DZ...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING AS THE COLD AIR LYR DEEPENS...AND THE MIXING WILL
ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN TUE...MAINLY 60 TO
65 IN MOST SPOTS. THE CT VLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MOST SUNNY AND
THE WARMEST AS THE DOWNSLOPE DRIES THINGS OUT.

ON THU...COMPACT AND WEAK 500MB REX BLOCK IS OVER THE
REGION. AGAIN WILL LIKE SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY FRIDAY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND LOW HEAD EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE S FLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
ON THE SUNNIER OTHER...OTHER THAN CIRRUS LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT...AS IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND THEN
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AND SHIFTS NE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY....WHILE MAIN UPPR LVL HEADS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT RAFL INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 12Z EURO EVEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR RUNS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS PRES IN FORM THE S BY MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NE TO
NR 25 KT THROUGH 22Z VCNTY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT...THEN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IMPROVING
TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN DZ/FG TUE MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KLEB/KHIE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER ON TUE
ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT RESTRICITIONS...COULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS WED
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN FOR THU/FRI. SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LKLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GUSTY NE FLOW PERSISTS WED INTO THU...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA LVLS. SEAS MAY COME UP ABV 5 FT AGAIN ON THU AS SWELL
FROM COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE S MOVES IN. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW
FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT TIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SOME IMPROVEMENT...IT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL BE AS SFC FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND 500MB LOW TRACKS OVER
NEW ENGLAND. SFC FLOW WILL HOLD NE AND WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH OVER
LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL
STILL PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS. AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPOTTY DZ...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING AS THE COLD AIR LYR DEEPENS...AND THE MIXING WILL
ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN TUE...MAINLY 60 TO
65 IN MOST SPOTS. THE CT VLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MOST SUNNY AND
THE WARMEST AS THE DOWNSLOPE DRIES THINGS OUT.

ON THU...COMPACT AND WEAK 500MB REX BLOCK IS OVER THE
REGION. AGAIN WILL LIKE SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL SEE P/SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY FRIDAY THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND LOW HEAD EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE S FLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
ON THE SUNNIER OTHER...OTHER THAN CIRRUS LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT...AS IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND THEN
TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE AND SHIFTS NE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY....WHILE MAIN UPPR LVL HEADS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT RAFL INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 12Z EURO EVEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN PRIOR RUNS AND CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS PRES IN FORM THE S BY MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NE TO
NR 25 KT THROUGH 22Z VCNTY OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT...THEN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IMPROVING
TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN DZ/FG TUE MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT KLEB/KHIE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER ON TUE
ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT RESTRICITIONS...COULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS WED
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN FOR THU/FRI. SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LKLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GUSTY NE FLOW PERSISTS WED INTO THU...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA LVLS. SEAS MAY COME UP ABV 5 FT AGAIN ON THU AS SWELL
FROM COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE S MOVES IN. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW
FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291636
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1236 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

1235 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE 16Z MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
925 AM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE AT 13Z AND CONTINUED TO PRESS
SOUTHWESTWARD. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD POPS...SKY
GRIDS...AND TEMPERATURES...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE
MESONET AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE AT 13Z AND CONTINUED TO PRESS
SOUTHWESTWARD. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD POPS...SKY
GRIDS...AND TEMPERATURES...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE
MESONET AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291036
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
637 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPS
AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 291036
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
637 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPS
AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290650
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290650
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 290321 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1121 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME STRATUS HAS FORMED OFFSHORE AND
WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE MIDCOAST SHORTLY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD NOT HAMPER FOG/STRATUS FORMATION MUCH OVER
THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S THIS HOUR AND WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
DEW POINTS DROP SLIGHTLY AS WELL.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME
IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS
BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES
THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WITH STRONG INVERSION AND COOL NE
FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS
THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL
START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO SW
/ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE SOME
SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER
DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

BY WED...WE START TO SEE WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN
NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT US
IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT POLEWARD OF
THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH
WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5
FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 282341 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER
WHICH SEEMS TO BE COMING IN THICKER OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY FOG FORMATION WHICH NOW
LOOKS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE MID COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME
IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS
BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES
THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WITH STRONG INVERSION AND COOL NE
FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS
THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL
START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO SW
/ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE SOME
SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER
DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

BY WED...WE START TO SEE WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN
NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT US
IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT POLEWARD OF
THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH
WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5
FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282341 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER
WHICH SEEMS TO BE COMING IN THICKER OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY FOG FORMATION WHICH NOW
LOOKS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE MID COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME
IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS
BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES
THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WITH STRONG INVERSION AND COOL NE
FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS
THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL
START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO SW
/ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE SOME
SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER
DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

BY WED...WE START TO SEE WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN
NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT US
IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT POLEWARD OF
THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH
WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5
FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 282122 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GRAY ME 522 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME
IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS
BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES
THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WITH STRONG INVERSION AND COOL NE
FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS
THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL
START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO SW
/ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE SOME
SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER
DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

BY WED...WE START TO SEE WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN
NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT US
IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT POLEWARD OF
THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH
WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5
FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282122 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GRAY ME 522 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME
IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS
BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES
THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WITH STRONG INVERSION AND COOL NE
FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS
THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL
START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO SW
/ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE SOME
SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER
DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

BY WED...WE START TO SEE WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN
NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT US
IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT POLEWARD OF
THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH
WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5
FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 281910
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME
IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS
BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES
THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WILL STRONG INVERSION AND COOL
NE FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN
THE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS
THE SF RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL
START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO
SW /ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE
SOME SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE
CLOUDS ALL DAY. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST
PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

BY WED...WE START TO WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN
NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT
US IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT POLEWARD OF THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH
WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5
FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281910
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL
SPOTS AND MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF AS CLOUDS COME
IN ALOFT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MORNING SUN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LIMITED AT BEST BUT GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD OCEAN STRATUS INTO THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOCKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. LOOKING FOR AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE STARTS OFF A BIT ON THE COOL AND DAMP SIDE TUESDAY AS
BACK COLD AIR DAMMING FILLS IN BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVES
THRU MON NIGHT. DAY WILL START OFF WILL STRONG INVERSION AND COOL
NE FLOW BLO WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDS/FOG/DZ IN
THE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AS
THE SF RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NE AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WILL
START TO SEE THINGS DRYING OUT AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM NE TO
SW /ACTUALLY AREAS N AND W OF THE MTNS INCLUDING CT VLY MAY SEE
SOME SUN THROUGH OUT THE DAY IN DOWNSLOPE/. COASTAL AREAS AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN THE
CLOUDS ALL DAY. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S MOST
PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE AREAS.

BY WED...WE START TO WEAK REX BLOCKING DEVELOP OVER THE NERN
NOAM...WITH LOW TO OUR S AND RIDGE JUST TO OUR N. THIS SHOULD PUT
US IN A SPOT TO GET FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW HOLDS TO OUR S AND MODERATE AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT POLEWARD OF THE 500MB LOW. IN GENERAL...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY...START TO SEE THE BLOCK BREAK DOWN AS DEEP 500MB TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR W...AND THEN LIFTS NE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER WILL START TUESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT INLAND TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDS LINGER ON THE COAST
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL START OFF AT NEAR SCA LVLS IN NE FLOW TUE...WHICH
WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THEN COULD SEE SEAS RISE ABV 5
FT AROUND THU DUE TO SWELL FROM OCEAN STORM PASSING OT THE SE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280702
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER CONTINUING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REACH 80 AGAIN TODAY AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. HOWEVER... WITH AN INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW... A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL FORM NEAR THE MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER. WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE MUCH
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... BRINGING COOLER AIR FROM OFF THE
WATER INTO THE LAND AREAS PRIMARILY FROM PORTLAND EASTWARD. THIS
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A
SEABREEZE TO ADVANCE INLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY TODAY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY.

RECORD HIGH AT PORTLAND IS 82 DEGREES (1948). WITH CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPERATURES THIS RECORD IS IN DANGER OF BEING TIED OR
BROKEN. RECORD HIGH AT CONCORD IS 90 (1873) AND THIS SHOULD BE
SAFE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
ONE MORE WARM NIGHT EXPECTED. COULD SEE FOG AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT... SO EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLIER.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST... TEMPERATURES MAY WARM WELL INTO
THE 70S AGAIN BEFORE COOLING OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THE TERRAIN
WILL BLOCK THE ADVANCING MARITIME AIR MASS.

WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT OR JUST BEHIND
IT. FOG AND DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS A COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS
MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WITH HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN PLACE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE
SHOULD BE THE RULE. KEPT CLOSE TO THE NAM 2M TEMPERATURES FOR
MAXES TUESDAY AS THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST WIND
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NOT A
VERY NICE DAY AS COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
THIS WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST. THE SURFACE
RIDGING FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
WILL MEAN HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT LEBANON AND
WHITEFIELD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS TODAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AND WILL
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...PROBABLY SCA CONDITIONS IN STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTS AROUND 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 280702
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER CONTINUING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REACH 80 AGAIN TODAY AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. HOWEVER... WITH AN INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW... A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL FORM NEAR THE MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER. WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE MUCH
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... BRINGING COOLER AIR FROM OFF THE
WATER INTO THE LAND AREAS PRIMARILY FROM PORTLAND EASTWARD. THIS
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A
SEABREEZE TO ADVANCE INLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY TODAY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY.

RECORD HIGH AT PORTLAND IS 82 DEGREES (1948). WITH CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPERATURES THIS RECORD IS IN DANGER OF BEING TIED OR
BROKEN. RECORD HIGH AT CONCORD IS 90 (1873) AND THIS SHOULD BE
SAFE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
ONE MORE WARM NIGHT EXPECTED. COULD SEE FOG AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT... SO EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLIER.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST... TEMPERATURES MAY WARM WELL INTO
THE 70S AGAIN BEFORE COOLING OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THE TERRAIN
WILL BLOCK THE ADVANCING MARITIME AIR MASS.

WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT OR JUST BEHIND
IT. FOG AND DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS A COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS
MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WITH HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN PLACE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE
SHOULD BE THE RULE. KEPT CLOSE TO THE NAM 2M TEMPERATURES FOR
MAXES TUESDAY AS THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST WIND
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NOT A
VERY NICE DAY AS COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
THIS WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST. THE SURFACE
RIDGING FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
WILL MEAN HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT LEBANON AND
WHITEFIELD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS TODAY
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AND WILL
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...PROBABLY SCA CONDITIONS IN STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTS AROUND 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
950 PM...ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO T/TD MAINLY FOR
ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

6 PM...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS...SET SKIES
TO ZERO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ADJUSTED GRID WINDS DOWN TO MAKE
THEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST THINKING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RAD COOLING...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS
15-18C AND A SFC STARTING POINT ABV 80F...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE HILLTOPS WILL BE THE WARMEST
SPOTS...WHERE SOME MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL.

PREVIOUSLY...CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS IN COLDER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
80.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE
FROM INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
A DRY NIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER. LOWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH AND AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK...THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH LOW PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. I`M BEEN A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC THEN THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL PAINT
A PICTURE OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY
TO OUR NORTH. SO...I`M INCLINED TO BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON NIGHT - TUE...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...

MON PM - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
950 PM...ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO T/TD MAINLY FOR
ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

6 PM...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS...SET SKIES
TO ZERO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ADJUSTED GRID WINDS DOWN TO MAKE
THEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST THINKING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RAD COOLING...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS
15-18C AND A SFC STARTING POINT ABV 80F...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE HILLTOPS WILL BE THE WARMEST
SPOTS...WHERE SOME MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL.

PREVIOUSLY...CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS IN COLDER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
80.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE
FROM INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
A DRY NIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER. LOWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH AND AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK...THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH LOW PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. I`M BEEN A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC THEN THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL PAINT
A PICTURE OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY
TO OUR NORTH. SO...I`M INCLINED TO BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON NIGHT - TUE...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...

MON PM - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 272203
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
6 PM...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS...SET SKIES
TO ZERO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ADJUSTED GRID WINDS DOWN TO MAKE
THEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST THINKING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RAD COOLING...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS
15-18C AND A SFC STARTING POINT ABV 80F...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE HILLTOPS WILL BE THE WARMEST
SPOTS...WHERE SOME MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL.

PREVIOUSLY...CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS IN COLDER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
80.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE
FROM INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
A DRY NIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER. LOWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH AND AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK...THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH LOW PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. I`M BEEN A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC THEN THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL PAINT
A PICTURE OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY
TO OUR NORTH. SO...I`M INCLINED TO BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON NIGHT - TUE...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...

MON PM - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272203
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
6 PM...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS...SET SKIES
TO ZERO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ADJUSTED GRID WINDS DOWN TO MAKE
THEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST THINKING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RAD COOLING...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS
15-18C AND A SFC STARTING POINT ABV 80F...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE HILLTOPS WILL BE THE WARMEST
SPOTS...WHERE SOME MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMP FALL.

PREVIOUSLY...CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS IN COLDER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
80.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE
FROM INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
A DRY NIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER. LOWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH AND AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK...THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH LOW PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. I`M BEEN A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC THEN THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL PAINT
A PICTURE OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY
TO OUR NORTH. SO...I`M INCLINED TO BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON NIGHT - TUE...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...

MON PM - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS IN COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
80.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE
FROM INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
A DRY NIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER. LOWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
50S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH AND AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK...THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH LOW PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. I`M BEEN A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC THEN THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL PAINT
A PICTURE OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY
TO OUR NORTH. SO...I`M INCLINED TO BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON NIGHT - TUE...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...

MON PM - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS IN COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO TOP OUT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
80.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE
FROM INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
A DRY NIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER. LOWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
50S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH AND AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK...THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH LOW PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. I`M BEEN A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC THEN THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL PAINT
A PICTURE OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY
TO OUR NORTH. SO...I`M INCLINED TO BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON NIGHT - TUE...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...

MON PM - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





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