Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KGYX 091131
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 090833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
     009-013-014-020>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 090833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
     009-013-014-020>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 090833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ008-
     009-013-014-020>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 090442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1142 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1140 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO
INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DROP OFF ON THE WATERS AND THE GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGH TIDE WAS A SHORT TIME AGO WITH AN
ANOMALY OF 1.7 FT. THIS PUT THE TIDE ABOUT 0.5 FT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SEAS BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FT AT THE NEAR SHORE
BUOYS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE WEAKENING
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.

PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.

TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.

WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 090442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1142 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1140 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO
INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DROP OFF ON THE WATERS AND THE GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGH TIDE WAS A SHORT TIME AGO WITH AN
ANOMALY OF 1.7 FT. THIS PUT THE TIDE ABOUT 0.5 FT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SEAS BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FT AT THE NEAR SHORE
BUOYS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE WEAKENING
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.

PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.

TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.

WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 090442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1142 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1140 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO
INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DROP OFF ON THE WATERS AND THE GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGH TIDE WAS A SHORT TIME AGO WITH AN
ANOMALY OF 1.7 FT. THIS PUT THE TIDE ABOUT 0.5 FT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SEAS BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FT AT THE NEAR SHORE
BUOYS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE WEAKENING
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.

PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.

TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.

WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 090307
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1007 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE WEAKENING
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.

PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.

TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.

WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 090219
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION FOR A A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF THESE
AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.

PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.

TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.

WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 090219
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION FOR A A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF THESE
AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.

PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.

TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.

WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 082305
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
605 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST
SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.

TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.

WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND BUILDING SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS
HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 082123
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
423 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.

TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.

WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND BUILDING SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS
HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>022-025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...HANES
MARINE...HANES/MARINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 081519 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1019 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1010 AM...PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE BOSTON IS RECEIVING WIND DAMAGE AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING ON THE CAPE...SO FAR NO SNOW
HAS REACHED THE GROUND IN NH OR MAINE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DRIER AIR SOUTH AND IN FACT
DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING IN MUCH OF THE REGION. NEAR ZERO OR
NEGATIVE DEW POINTS WILL KEEP SNOW ALOFT EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

WE SHOULD SEE SNOW BEGIN TO REACH THE GROUND IN SW NH AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF COASTAL MAINE WITHIN 2-4 HOURS BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. AGAIN THE MAIN ISSUE PRECLUDING THIS IS A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS AS NOTED ON THE KGYX 12Z SOUNDINGS...IN FACT IT IS
DRY UP TO 500MB OR ABOUT 17K FT. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO COME UP
HOWEVER WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SO FAR. WE WILL SEE
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADJUSTED SKY COVER...QPF TIMING...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS
WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY UNDERFORECAST BY THE MODELS.




635 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AND TO INGEST THE 11Z MESONET. I
SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SEVERAL HOURS THIS AM.

PREV DISC...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
AT 07Z...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN
INTENSIFYING 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. FOR TODAY...CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED LEADING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. SOME CONCERN ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AS THE DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH OCEAN LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TOTALS DOWN A BIT OVER THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS IN LATER UPDATES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN LOW
AND 1033 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE. THE DEVELOPING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND AS THE OCEAN LOW
RACES INTO THE MARITIMES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND GIVES RISE TO A SECOND
INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. QPF WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLY
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.
SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERS
INTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BE
WORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.

GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THIS
HELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLAR
CIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
CURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WV
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWF
EPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSO
DEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU WED...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI...AND COULD BRING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND A
BRIEF SHSN TOO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY INTO NIGHT WITH GALES
EXPECTED AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW GALE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TUE. AFTER A BRIEF RELAXATION OF
WINDS...A STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COAST OF YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>013-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 081143
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

635 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AND TO INGEST THE 11Z MESONET. I
SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SEVERAL HOURS THIS AM.

PREV DISC...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
AT 07Z...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN
INTENSIFYING 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. FOR TODAY...CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED LEADING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. SOME CONCERN ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AS THE DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH OCEAN LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TOTALS DOWN A BIT OVER THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS IN LATER UPDATES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN LOW
AND 1033 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE. THE DEVELOPING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND AS THE OCEAN LOW
RACES INTO THE MARITIMES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND GIVES RISE TO A SECOND
INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. QPF WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLY
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.
SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERS
INTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BE
WORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.

GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THIS
HELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLAR
CIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
CURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WV
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWF
EPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSO
DEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU WED...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI...AND COULD BRING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND A
BRIEF SHSN TOO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY INTO NIGHT WITH GALES
EXPECTED AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW GALE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TUE. AFTER A BRIEF RELAXATION OF
WINDS...A STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COAST OF YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>013-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 081143
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

635 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AND TO INGEST THE 11Z MESONET. I
SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SEVERAL HOURS THIS AM.

PREV DISC...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
AT 07Z...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN
INTENSIFYING 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. FOR TODAY...CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED LEADING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. SOME CONCERN ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AS THE DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH OCEAN LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TOTALS DOWN A BIT OVER THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS IN LATER UPDATES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN LOW
AND 1033 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE. THE DEVELOPING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND AS THE OCEAN LOW
RACES INTO THE MARITIMES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND GIVES RISE TO A SECOND
INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. QPF WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLY
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.
SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERS
INTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BE
WORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.

GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THIS
HELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLAR
CIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
CURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WV
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWF
EPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSO
DEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU WED...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI...AND COULD BRING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND A
BRIEF SHSN TOO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY INTO NIGHT WITH GALES
EXPECTED AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW GALE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TUE. AFTER A BRIEF RELAXATION OF
WINDS...A STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COAST OF YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>013-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 081143
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

635 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AND TO INGEST THE 11Z MESONET. I
SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SEVERAL HOURS THIS AM.

PREV DISC...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
AT 07Z...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN
INTENSIFYING 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. FOR TODAY...CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED LEADING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. SOME CONCERN ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AS THE DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH OCEAN LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TOTALS DOWN A BIT OVER THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS IN LATER UPDATES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN LOW
AND 1033 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE. THE DEVELOPING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND AS THE OCEAN LOW
RACES INTO THE MARITIMES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND GIVES RISE TO A SECOND
INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. QPF WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLY
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.
SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERS
INTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BE
WORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.

GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THIS
HELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLAR
CIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
CURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WV
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWF
EPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSO
DEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU WED...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI...AND COULD BRING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND A
BRIEF SHSN TOO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY INTO NIGHT WITH GALES
EXPECTED AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW GALE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TUE. AFTER A BRIEF RELAXATION OF
WINDS...A STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COAST OF YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>013-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 080844
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
AT 07Z...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN
INTENSIFYING 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. FOR TODAY...CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED LEADING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. SOME CONCERN ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AS THE DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH OCEAN LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TOTALS DOWN A BIT OVER THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS IN LATER UPDATES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN LOW
AND 1033 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE. THE DEVELOPING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND AS THE OCEAN LOW
RACES INTO THE MARITIMES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND GIVES RISE TO A SECOND
INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. QPF WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLY
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.
SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERS
INTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BE
WORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.

GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THIS
HELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLAR
CIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
CURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WV
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWF
EPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSO
DEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU WED...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI...AND COULD BRING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND A
BRIEF SHSN TOO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY INTO NIGHT WITH GALES
EXPECTED AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW GALE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TUE. AFTER A BRIEF RELAXATION OF
WINDS...A STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COAST OF YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 080844
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
AT 07Z...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN
INTENSIFYING 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. FOR TODAY...CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED LEADING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. SOME CONCERN ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AS THE DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH OCEAN LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TOTALS DOWN A BIT OVER THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS IN LATER UPDATES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN LOW
AND 1033 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE. THE DEVELOPING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND AS THE OCEAN LOW
RACES INTO THE MARITIMES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND GIVES RISE TO A SECOND
INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. QPF WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLY
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.
SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERS
INTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BE
WORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.

GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THIS
HELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLAR
CIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
CURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WV
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWF
EPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSO
DEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU WED...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI...AND COULD BRING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND A
BRIEF SHSN TOO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY INTO NIGHT WITH GALES
EXPECTED AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW GALE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TUE. AFTER A BRIEF RELAXATION OF
WINDS...A STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COAST OF YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 080844
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
AT 07Z...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN
INTENSIFYING 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. FOR TODAY...CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE OCEAN STORM WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED LEADING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
TODAY. SOME CONCERN ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AS THE DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH OCEAN LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TOTALS DOWN A BIT OVER THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS IN LATER UPDATES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN LOW
AND 1033 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE. THE DEVELOPING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING AFTERNOON COMMUTE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND AS THE OCEAN LOW
RACES INTO THE MARITIMES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND GIVES RISE TO A SECOND
INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. QPF WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLY
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.
SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERS
INTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BE
WORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.

GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THIS
HELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLAR
CIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
CURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WV
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWF
EPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSO
DEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU WED...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI...AND COULD BRING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND A
BRIEF SHSN TOO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY INTO NIGHT WITH GALES
EXPECTED AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW GALE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TUE. AFTER A BRIEF RELAXATION OF
WINDS...A STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COAST OF YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 080359
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1059 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. VERY DRY AND
COLD AIR POURING SOUTHWARD THROUGHT THE STATE OF MAINE THIS
EVENING ON NORTHERLY WINDS. DEW POINTS ARE NOW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL
RAPIDLY TONIGHT...DOWN TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH. SOUTHERN NH WILL
BE MILDER WITH UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

MESOSCALE MODELS BRING SNOWFALL TO SE NH AROUND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WITH 00Z MODELS COMING IN A TAD DRIER AND SLOWER WITH
THE PRECIP THIS EVENING. AWAITING THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE AS A 985 MB SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE SC COASTLINE
THIS EVENING. RAINSHIELD CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM VA TO THE NC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS 50 KT+ OVER THE REGION OF INTENSE
CYCLOGENESIS.

PREV DISC...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW MARCH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
SUBZERO ALREADY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. EXPECT COLD
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON AN INCREASING NORTHERLY
WIND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS BY
MORNING... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN PARTS OF MAINE.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE COLD ADVECTION IS... THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ROOM TO GO ON THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY MORNING WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP DRAG IN
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.

AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES NORTH... DRIVEN BY A WELL DEVELOPED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ACT TO TRY TO
PULL THE OFFSHORE LOW WESTWARD... BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST PULL
SOME OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WESTWARD TOWARD THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST... THOUGH SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD GET SCRAPED BY
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE MORNING.

BY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER TROUGH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING OUT OF
A 10,000 TO 15,000 FOOT CLOUD DECK AND COLD DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATION (SUBLIMATION) INITIALLY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN FACT... TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BE IN THE TEENS TOMORROW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD EVEN BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AND
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. EVENTUALLY THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WESTWARD AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT SNOW TO
BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 1 ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW WHICH WILL EASILY BE BLOWN AROUND BY
THE WIND. BEST LIFT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS PER 6 HOUR
PERIOD. HOWEVER... OVER THE COARSE OF THE 24 HOUR EVENT SNOW
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE OVER A
LONG DURATION 24 HOUR PERIOD THUS ONLY AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOWS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND WELL OFF THE
NH AND MAINE SHORELINES. THIS SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY
BE ENVELOPED BY MONDAYS COASTAL LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN A COUPLED RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MINOR
DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF UP TO HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW EVERY 6 HOURS...RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE FINAL AREAWIDE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY... WHILE THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE EXTREMELY FRIGID AIRMASS
POURING OUT OF CANADA. A DENSE COLD DOME NOW POOLING OVER THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
DENSE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST...
WE WILL BEGIN FEELING ITS EFFECTS NEXT WEEKEND.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -25 TO -33C OVER NH AND MAINE WITH
THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE SPINES OF THE GREENS AND
WHITES. OVER THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF WELL
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL
FAIR SOMEWHAT BETTER AND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
NEXT MONDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID AS WELL AT THIS TIME BUT THE NEXT
BATCH OF LOW PRESSURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY MIDDAY MONDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPOTS OF VFR. THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING OFF. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE
FORCE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH STORM FORCE AT TIMES. BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE.

LONG TERM...WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN
FACT DO NOT DECREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM STONINGTON TO
PORT CLYDE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY OFFSHORE. WE WILL NEED AT
LEAST A SCA FOR WAVES FOR A PORTION OF THE SEAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA TUESDAY MORNING AND STAY BELOW
CRITERIA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COASTAL YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNIG HIGH TIDE
MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 080232
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
932 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. VERY DRY AND
COLD AIR POURING SOUTHWARD THROUGHT THE STATE OF MAINE THIS
EVENING ON NORTHERLY WINDS. DEW POINTS ARE NOW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL
RAPIDLY TONIGHT...DOWN TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH. SOUTHERN NH WILL
BE MILDER WITH UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

MESOSCALE MODELS BRING SNOWFALL TO SE NH AROUND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WITH 00Z MODELS COMING IN A TAD DRIER THIS EVENING.
AWAITING THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL SUITE AS A 985 MB SURFACE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OFF THE SC COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RAINSHIELD
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM VA TO THE NC COAST THIS EVENING WITH WIND
GUSTS 50 KT+ OVER THE REGION OF INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS.

PREV DISC...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW MARCH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
SUBZERO ALREADY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. EXPECT COLD
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON AN INCREASING NORTHERLY
WIND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS BY
MORNING... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN PARTS OF MAINE.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE COLD ADVECTION IS... THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ROOM TO GO ON THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY MORNING WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP DRAG IN
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.

AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES NORTH... DRIVEN BY A WELL DEVELOPED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ACT TO TRY TO
PULL THE OFFSHORE LOW WESTWARD... BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST PULL
SOME OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WESTWARD TOWARD THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST... THOUGH SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD GET SCRAPED BY
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE MORNING.

BY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER TROUGH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING OUT OF
A 10,000 TO 15,000 FOOT CLOUD DECK AND COLD DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATION (SUBLIMATION) INITIALLY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN FACT... TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BE IN THE TEENS TOMORROW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD EVEN BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AND
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. EVENTUALLY THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WESTWARD AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT SNOW TO
BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 1 ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW WHICH WILL EASILY BE BLOWN AROUND BY
THE WIND. BEST LIFT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS PER 6 HOUR
PERIOD. HOWEVER... OVER THE COARSE OF THE 24 HOUR EVENT SNOW
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE OVER A
LONG DURATION 24 HOUR PERIOD THUS ONLY AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOWS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND WELL OFF THE
NH AND MAINE SHORELINES. THIS SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY
BE ENVELOPED BY MONDAYS COASTAL LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN A COUPLED RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MINOR
DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF UP TO HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW EVERY 6 HOURS...RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE FINAL AREAWIDE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY... WHILE THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE EXTREMELY FRIGID AIRMASS
POURING OUT OF CANADA. A DENSE COLD DOME NOW POOLING OVER THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
DENSE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST...
WE WILL BEGIN FEELING ITS EFFECTS NEXT WEEKEND.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -25 TO -33C OVER NH AND MAINE WITH
THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE SPINES OF THE GREENS AND
WHITES. OVER THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF WELL
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL
FAIR SOMEWHAT BETTER AND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
NEXT MONDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID AS WELL AT THIS TIME BUT THE NEXT
BATCH OF LOW PRESSURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY MIDDAY MONDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPOTS OF VFR. THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING OFF. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE
FORCE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH STORM FORCE AT TIMES. BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE.

LONG TERM...WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN
FACT DO NOT DECREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM STONINGTON TO
PORT CLYDE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY OFFSHORE. WE WILL NEED AT
LEAST A SCA FOR WAVES FOR A PORTION OF THE SEAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA TUESDAY MORNING AND STAY BELOW
CRITERIA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COASTAL YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNIG HIGH TIDE
MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 072220
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
520 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. VERY DRY AND
COLD AIR POURING SOUTHWARD THROUGHT THE STATE OF MAINE THIS
EVENING ON NORTHERLY WINDS. DEW POINTS ARE NOW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL
RAPIDLY TONIGHT...DOWN TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH. SOUTHERN NH WILL
BE MILDER WITH UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

MESOSCALE MODELS BRING SNOWFALL TO SE NH AROUND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. COULD BE SOME SUBLIMATION BELOW THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
THAT INITIALLY CONTRIBUTES TO THE SNOWFALL...WHICH WOULD DELAY THE
PRECIP BY A COUPLE HOURS.

PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW MARCH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
SUBZERO ALREADY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. EXPECT COLD
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON AN INCREASING NORTHERLY
WIND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS BY
MORNING... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN PARTS OF MAINE.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE COLD ADVECTION IS... THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ROOM TO GO ON THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY MORNING WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP DRAG IN
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.

AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES NORTH... DRIVEN BY A WELL DEVELOPED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ACT TO TRY TO
PULL THE OFFSHORE LOW WESTWARD... BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST PULL
SOME OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WESTWARD TOWARD THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST... THOUGH SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD GET SCRAPED BY
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE MORNING.

BY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER TROUGH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING OUT OF
A 10,000 TO 15,000 FOOT CLOUD DECK AND COLD DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATION (SUBLIMATION) INITIALLY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN FACT... TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BE IN THE TEENS TOMORROW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD EVEN BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AND
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. EVENTUALLY THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WESTWARD AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT SNOW TO
BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 1 ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW WHICH WILL EASILY BE BLOWN AROUND BY
THE WIND. BEST LIFT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS PER 6 HOUR
PERIOD. HOWEVER... OVER THE COARSE OF THE 24 HOUR EVENT SNOW
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE OVER A
LONG DURATION 24 HOUR PERIOD THUS ONLY AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOWS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND WELL OFF THE
NH AND MAINE SHORELINES. THIS SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY
BE ENVELOPED BY MONDAYS COASTAL LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN A COUPLED RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MINOR
DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF UP TO HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW EVERY 6 HOURS...RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE FINAL AREAWIDE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY... WHILE THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE EXTREMELY FRIGID AIRMASS
POURING OUT OF CANADA. A DENSE COLD DOME NOW POOLING OVER THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
DENSE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST...
WE WILL BEGIN FEELING ITS EFFECTS NEXT WEEKEND.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -25 TO -33C OVER NH AND MAINE WITH
THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE SPINES OF THE GREENS AND
WHITES. OVER THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF WELL
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL
FAIR SOMEWHAT BETTER AND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
NEXT MONDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID AS WELL AT THIS TIME BUT THE NEXT
BATCH OF LOW PRESSURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY MIDDAY MONDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPOTS OF VFR. THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING OFF. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE
FORCE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH STORM FORCE AT TIMES. BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE.

LONG TERM...WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN
FACT DO NOT DECREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM STONINGTON TO
PORT CLYDE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY OFFSHORE. WE WILL NEED AT
LEAST A SCA FOR WAVES FOR A PORTION OF THE SEAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA TUESDAY MORNING AND STAY BELOW
CRITERIA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COASTAL YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNIG HIGH TIDE
MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 072058
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
358 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW MARCH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING SUBZERO
ALREADY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. EXPECT COLD ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON AN INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS BY
MORNING... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN PARTS OF MAINE.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE COLD ADVECTION IS... THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ROOM TO GO ON THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY MORNING WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP DRAG IN
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.

AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES NORTH... DRIVEN BY A WELL DEVELOPED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ACT TO TRY TO
PULL THE OFFSHORE LOW WESTWARD... BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST PULL
SOME OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WESTWARD TOWARD THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST... THOUGH SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD GET SCRAPED BY
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE MORNING.

BY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER TROUGH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING OUT OF
A 10,000 TO 15,000 FOOT CLOUD DECK AND COLD DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATION (SUBLIMATION) INITIALLY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN FACT... TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BE IN THE TEENS TOMORROW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD EVEN BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AND
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. EVENTUALLY THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WESTWARD AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT SNOW TO
BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 1 ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW WHICH WILL EASILY BE BLOWN AROUND BY
THE WIND. BEST LIFT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS PER 6 HOUR
PERIOD. HOWEVER... OVER THE COARSE OF THE 24 HOUR EVENT SNOW
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE OVER A
LONG DURATION 24 HOUR PERIOD THUS ONLY AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOWS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND WELL OFF THE
NH AND MAINE SHORELINES. THIS SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY
BE ENVELOPED BY MONDAYS COASTAL LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN A COUPLED RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MINOR
DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF UP TO HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW EVERY 6 HOURS...RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE FINAL AREAWIDE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY... WHILE THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE EXTREMELY FRIGID AIRMASS
POURING OUT OF CANADA. A DENSE COLD DOME NOW POOLING OVER THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
DENSE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST...
WE WILL BEGIN FEELING ITS EFFECTS NEXT WEEKEND.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -25 TO -33C OVER NH AND MAINE WITH
THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE SPINES OF THE GREENS AND
WHITES. OVER THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF WELL
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL
FAIR SOMEWHAT BETTER AND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
NEXT MONDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID AS WELL AT THIS TIME BUT THE NEXT
BATCH OF LOW PRESSURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY MIDDAY MONDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPOTS OF VFR. THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING OFF. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE
FORCE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH STORM FORCE AT TIMES. BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE.

LONG TERM...WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN
FACT DO NOT DECREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM STONINGTON TO
PORT CLYDE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY OFFSHORE. WE WILL NEED AT
LEAST A SCA FOR WAVES FOR A PORTION OF THE SEAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA TUESDAY MORNING AND STAY BELOW
CRITERIA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND MODESTLY BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 10 FEET. THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE COASTAL YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID MORNIG HIGH TIDE
MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 072048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW MARCH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING SUBZERO
ALREADY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. EXPECT COLD ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON AN INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS BY
MORNING... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN PARTS OF MAINE.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE COLD ADVECTION IS... THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ROOM TO GO ON THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY MORNING WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP DRAG IN
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.

AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES NORTH... DRIVEN BY A WELL DEVELOPED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ACT TO TRY TO
PULL THE OFFSHORE LOW WESTWARD... BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST PULL
SOME OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WESTWARD TOWARD THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST... THOUGH SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD GET SCRAPED BY
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE MORNING.

BY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER TROUGH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING OUT OF
A 10,000 TO 15,000 FOOT CLOUD DECK AND COLD DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATION (SUBLIMATION) INITIALLY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN FACT... TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BE IN THE TEENS TOMORROW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD EVEN BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AND
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. EVENTUALLY THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WESTWARD AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT SNOW TO
BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 1 ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW WHICH WILL EASILY BE BLOWN AROUND BY
THE WIND. BEST LIFT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS PER 6 HOUR
PERIOD. HOWEVER... OVER THE COARSE OF THE 24 HOUR EVENT SNOW
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE OVER A
LONG DURATION 24 HOUR PERIOD THUS ONLY AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOWS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND WELL OFF THE
NH AND MAINE SHORELINES. THIS SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY
BE ENVELOPED BY MONDAYS COASTAL LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN A COUPLED RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MINOR
DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF UP TO HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW EVERY 6 HOURS...RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE FINAL AREAWIDE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY... WHILE THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE EXTREMELY FRIGID AIRMASS
POURING OUT OF CANADA. A DENSE COLD DOME NOW POOLING OVER THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
DENSE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST...
WE WILL BEGIN FEELING ITS EFFECTS NEXT WEEKEND.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -25 TO -33C OVER NH AND MAINE WITH
THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE SPINES OF THE GREENS AND
WHITES. OVER THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF WELL
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL
FAIR SOMEWHAT BETTER AND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
NEXT MONDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID AS WELL AT THIS TIME BUT THE NEXT
BATCH OF LOW PRESSURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY MIDDAY MONDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPOTS OF VFR. THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING OFF. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE
FORCE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH STORM FORCE AT TIMES. BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE.

LONG TERM...WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN
FACT DO NOT DECREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM STONINGTON TO
PORT CLYDE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY OFFSHORE. WE WILL NEED AT
LEAST A SCA FOR WAVES FOR A PORTION OF THE SEAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA TUESDAY MORNING AND STAY BELOW
CRITERIA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 072048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW MARCH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING SUBZERO
ALREADY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. EXPECT COLD ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON AN INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS BY
MORNING... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN PARTS OF MAINE.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE COLD ADVECTION IS... THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ROOM TO GO ON THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO A
POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY MORNING WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP DRAG IN
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY.

AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES NORTH... DRIVEN BY A WELL DEVELOPED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ACT TO TRY TO
PULL THE OFFSHORE LOW WESTWARD... BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST PULL
SOME OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WESTWARD TOWARD THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST... THOUGH SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD GET SCRAPED BY
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE MORNING.

BY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER TROUGH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING OUT OF
A 10,000 TO 15,000 FOOT CLOUD DECK AND COLD DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATION (SUBLIMATION) INITIALLY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN FACT... TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BE IN THE TEENS TOMORROW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD EVEN BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AND
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. EVENTUALLY THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WESTWARD AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT SNOW TO
BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 1 ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW WHICH WILL EASILY BE BLOWN AROUND BY
THE WIND. BEST LIFT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS PER 6 HOUR
PERIOD. HOWEVER... OVER THE COARSE OF THE 24 HOUR EVENT SNOW
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE OVER A
LONG DURATION 24 HOUR PERIOD THUS ONLY AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOWS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND WELL OFF THE
NH AND MAINE SHORELINES. THIS SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY
BE ENVELOPED BY MONDAYS COASTAL LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN A COUPLED RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MINOR
DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF UP TO HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW EVERY 6 HOURS...RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE FINAL AREAWIDE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY... WHILE THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE EXTREMELY FRIGID AIRMASS
POURING OUT OF CANADA. A DENSE COLD DOME NOW POOLING OVER THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
DENSE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST...
WE WILL BEGIN FEELING ITS EFFECTS NEXT WEEKEND.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -25 TO -33C OVER NH AND MAINE WITH
THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE SPINES OF THE GREENS AND
WHITES. OVER THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF WELL
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL
FAIR SOMEWHAT BETTER AND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
NEXT MONDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID AS WELL AT THIS TIME BUT THE NEXT
BATCH OF LOW PRESSURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY MIDDAY MONDAY. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
KEEP MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPOTS OF VFR. THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING OFF. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE
FORCE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH STORM FORCE AT TIMES. BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE.

LONG TERM...WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN
FACT DO NOT DECREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM STONINGTON TO
PORT CLYDE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY OFFSHORE. WE WILL NEED AT
LEAST A SCA FOR WAVES FOR A PORTION OF THE SEAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA TUESDAY MORNING AND STAY BELOW
CRITERIA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ003>013-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 071747
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1247 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1245PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE. TEMPERATURE DROPS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AT WATERVILLE AND AUGUSTA. HAVE UPDATED THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURE AS THE
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH NEW
HAMPSHIRE. FRONT IS GETTING A LITTLE CAUGHT UP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT IT HAS MOVED THROUGH WHITEFIELD WITH A SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP NOTED. SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

845AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THE MIDCOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF
PORTLAND AS SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT ARE ADVANCING TOWARD THE
COAST AND APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BEHIND IT A LITTLE BIT BUT THE COLD WILL NOT
BE FULLY FELT UNTIL TONIGHT.

6AM UPDATE...
MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO INGEST
10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A 1009 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EAST QUEBEC PROVINCE WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 1026 MILLIBAR
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA. GOES INFRARED SHOWED CLOUDS
OVER MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AS WELL AS SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE...TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL RACE NORTH- NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG
WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THICKER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPRAWL PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST AND MAY INTERACT A BIT WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME TO
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHO WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BEST ASCENT.

THE SREF MEAN REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH WARNING AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PLAIN
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND DO REALIZE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
WARNING AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON OTHER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS LARGE PARENT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLOUDY
SKIES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME BUT SORTING OUT THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES AT THIS TIME IS A BIT
OF A TOUGH TASK.

MUCH OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE AGREE THAT THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL PAY A VISIT THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH IN -SN.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY MONDAY
EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THESE MAY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AM AND WE
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY MID MORNING. QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND OFFSHORE
LOW. WE COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BY LATE
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WATCH
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GALES MONDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 071747
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1247 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1245PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE. TEMPERATURE DROPS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AT WATERVILLE AND AUGUSTA. HAVE UPDATED THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURE AS THE
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH NEW
HAMPSHIRE. FRONT IS GETTING A LITTLE CAUGHT UP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT IT HAS MOVED THROUGH WHITEFIELD WITH A SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP NOTED. SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

845AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THE MIDCOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF
PORTLAND AS SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT ARE ADVANCING TOWARD THE
COAST AND APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BEHIND IT A LITTLE BIT BUT THE COLD WILL NOT
BE FULLY FELT UNTIL TONIGHT.

6AM UPDATE...
MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO INGEST
10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A 1009 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EAST QUEBEC PROVINCE WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 1026 MILLIBAR
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA. GOES INFRARED SHOWED CLOUDS
OVER MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AS WELL AS SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE...TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL RACE NORTH- NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG
WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THICKER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPRAWL PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST AND MAY INTERACT A BIT WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME TO
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHO WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BEST ASCENT.

THE SREF MEAN REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH WARNING AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PLAIN
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND DO REALIZE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
WARNING AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON OTHER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS LARGE PARENT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLOUDY
SKIES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME BUT SORTING OUT THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES AT THIS TIME IS A BIT
OF A TOUGH TASK.

MUCH OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE AGREE THAT THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL PAY A VISIT THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH IN -SN.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY MONDAY
EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THESE MAY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AM AND WE
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY MID MORNING. QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND OFFSHORE
LOW. WE COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BY LATE
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WATCH
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GALES MONDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 071747
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1247 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1245PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE. TEMPERATURE DROPS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AT WATERVILLE AND AUGUSTA. HAVE UPDATED THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURE AS THE
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH NEW
HAMPSHIRE. FRONT IS GETTING A LITTLE CAUGHT UP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT IT HAS MOVED THROUGH WHITEFIELD WITH A SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP NOTED. SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

845AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THE MIDCOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF
PORTLAND AS SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT ARE ADVANCING TOWARD THE
COAST AND APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BEHIND IT A LITTLE BIT BUT THE COLD WILL NOT
BE FULLY FELT UNTIL TONIGHT.

6AM UPDATE...
MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO INGEST
10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A 1009 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EAST QUEBEC PROVINCE WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 1026 MILLIBAR
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA. GOES INFRARED SHOWED CLOUDS
OVER MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AS WELL AS SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE...TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL RACE NORTH- NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG
WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THICKER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPRAWL PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST AND MAY INTERACT A BIT WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME TO
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHO WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BEST ASCENT.

THE SREF MEAN REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH WARNING AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PLAIN
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND DO REALIZE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
WARNING AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON OTHER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS LARGE PARENT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLOUDY
SKIES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME BUT SORTING OUT THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES AT THIS TIME IS A BIT
OF A TOUGH TASK.

MUCH OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE AGREE THAT THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL PAY A VISIT THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH IN -SN.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY MONDAY
EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THESE MAY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AM AND WE
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY MID MORNING. QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND OFFSHORE
LOW. WE COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BY LATE
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WATCH
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GALES MONDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 071349
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
849 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
845AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THE MIDCOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF
PORTLAND AS SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT ARE ADVANCING TOWARD THE
COAST AND APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BEHIND IT A LITTLE BIT BUT THE COLD WILL NOT
BE FULLY FELT UNTIL TONIGHT.

6AM UPDATE...
MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO INGEST
10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A 1009 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EAST QUEBEC PROVINCE WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 1026 MILLIBAR
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA. GOES INFRARED SHOWED CLOUDS
OVER MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AS WELL AS SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE...TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL RACE NORTH- NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG
WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THICKER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPRAWL PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST AND MAY INTERACT A BIT WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME TO
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHO WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BEST ASCENT.

THE SREF MEAN REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH WARNING AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PLAIN
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND DO REALIZE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
WARNING AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON OTHER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS LARGE PARENT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLOUDY
SKIES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME BUT SORTING OUT THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES AT THIS TIME IS A BIT
OF A TOUGH TASK.

MUCH OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE AGREE THAT THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL PAY A VISIT THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH IN -SN.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY MONDAY
EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THESE MAY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AM AND WE
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY MID MORNING. QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND OFFSHORE
LOW. WE COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BY LATE
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WATCH
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GALES MONDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 071057
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
557 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO
INGEST 10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 1009 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EAST QUEBEC PROVINCE WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 1026 MILLIBAR
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA. GOES INFRARED SHOWED CLOUDS
OVER MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AS WELL AS SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE...TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL RACE NORTH-NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG
WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THICKER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WESTERN AND
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPRAWL PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST AND MAY INTERACT A BIT WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME TO
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHO WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BEST ASCENT.

THE SREF MEAN REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH WARNING AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PLAIN
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND DO REALIZE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
WARNING AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON OTHER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS LARGE PARENT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLOUDY
SKIES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME BUT SORTING OUT THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES AT THIS TIME IS A BIT
OF A TOUGH TASK.

MUCH OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE AGREE THAT THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL PAY A VISIT THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MON PM ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NH
IN -SN.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY MONDAY
EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THESE MAY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AM AND WE
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY MID MORNING. QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND OFFSHORE
LOW. WE COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BY LATE
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WATCH
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GALES MONDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 070826
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
326 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...A 1009 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EAST QUEBEC PROVINCE WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 1026 MILLIBAR
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA. GOES INFRARED SHOWED CLOUDS
OVER MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AS WELL AS SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE...TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL RACE NORTH-NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG
WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THICKER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WESTERN AND
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPRAWL PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST AND MAY INTERACT A BIT WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME TO
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHO WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BEST ASCENT.

THE SREF MEAN REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH WARNING AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PLAIN
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND DO REALIZE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
WARNING AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON OTHER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS LARGE PARENT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLOUDY
SKIES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME BUT SORTING OUT THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES AT THIS TIME IS A BIT
OF A TOUGH TASK.

MUCH OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE AGREE THAT THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL PAY A VISIT THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MON PM ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NH
IN -SN.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY MONDAY
EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THESE MAY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AM AND WE
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY MID MORNING. QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND OFFSHORE
LOW. WE COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BY LATE
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WATCH
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GALES MONDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

..TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 11 FT MLLW BY TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL STRONG OCEAN LOWS TRACKING
OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WE CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SPLASHOVER ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY FROM CASCO BAY SOUTHWARD TO
THE MASSACHUSETTS BORDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 070320
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO
THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1010 PM UPDATE: QUITE NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST
OBS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

7 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL PLAIN AND MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS
TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA WILL
PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT IN A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS... SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE NEAR AS COLD TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. BUT AS
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EXPECT A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO PULL THE COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO THE REST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF AREAS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE MAY ONLY MAKE
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. NAEFS MEMBERS
AGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON MSLP AND 500MB HEIGHTS PERHAPS AS
FAR OUT AS 66 HOURS OR ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INDUCE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE IMPULSES MOVE NORTH AND
EAST FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS OR SNOW-MAKERS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE OTHERS
KEEP THEM FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO AS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL
GFS BRING THE FIRST STORM JUST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN
FLURRIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE EURO SEEMS A BIT DRIER AS IT KEEPS THE DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE MORE ENTRENCHED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN 2-4
INCHES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS INLAND AS FAR AS AUGUSTA
MAINE AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS. WINDS MAY BE QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.

INTERESTINGLY THIS STORM IS VERY ANOMALOUS EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO
NAEFS PERCENTILES. THE STORM IS SHOWING A RETURN INTERVAL
OUTSIDE THE M-CLIMATE AND NAEFS RETURN INTERVALS AS IT
UNDERGOES BOMBOGENESIS IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THANKFULLY THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN HUNDREDS OF MILES
OFFSHORE.

ONE CONCERN IS THE TREND OF THE SREF PLUMES...WHICH SHOW 8-10
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THE SREF ACTUALLY HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS PAST FRIDAYS SNOWSTORM (FEB 5). SO SOME CAUTION IS NEEDED
HERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND FOR
ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF MONDAYS SYSTEM... WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER COASTAL
SYSTEM EJECTING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE
BOTTLED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADD PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
TO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAYS STORM.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A
MUCH COLDER...DRIER...AND DENSER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY
SATURDAY WE WILL SEE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SO FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND AGREES WITH THE PROJECTED DIP IN THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. NIL TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..LOWER ON THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TOWARD CAPE COD. COULD SEE
GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO
LATE MONDAY

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 070320
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO
THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1010 PM UPDATE: QUITE NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST
OBS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

7 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL PLAIN AND MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS
TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA WILL
PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT IN A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS... SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE NEAR AS COLD TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. BUT AS
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EXPECT A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO PULL THE COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO THE REST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF AREAS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE MAY ONLY MAKE
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. NAEFS MEMBERS
AGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON MSLP AND 500MB HEIGHTS PERHAPS AS
FAR OUT AS 66 HOURS OR ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INDUCE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE IMPULSES MOVE NORTH AND
EAST FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS OR SNOW-MAKERS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE OTHERS
KEEP THEM FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO AS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL
GFS BRING THE FIRST STORM JUST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN
FLURRIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE EURO SEEMS A BIT DRIER AS IT KEEPS THE DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE MORE ENTRENCHED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN 2-4
INCHES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS INLAND AS FAR AS AUGUSTA
MAINE AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS. WINDS MAY BE QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.

INTERESTINGLY THIS STORM IS VERY ANOMALOUS EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO
NAEFS PERCENTILES. THE STORM IS SHOWING A RETURN INTERVAL
OUTSIDE THE M-CLIMATE AND NAEFS RETURN INTERVALS AS IT
UNDERGOES BOMBOGENESIS IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THANKFULLY THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN HUNDREDS OF MILES
OFFSHORE.

ONE CONCERN IS THE TREND OF THE SREF PLUMES...WHICH SHOW 8-10
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THE SREF ACTUALLY HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS PAST FRIDAYS SNOWSTORM (FEB 5). SO SOME CAUTION IS NEEDED
HERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND FOR
ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF MONDAYS SYSTEM... WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER COASTAL
SYSTEM EJECTING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE
BOTTLED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADD PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
TO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAYS STORM.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A
MUCH COLDER...DRIER...AND DENSER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY
SATURDAY WE WILL SEE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SO FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND AGREES WITH THE PROJECTED DIP IN THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. NIL TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..LOWER ON THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TOWARD CAPE COD. COULD SEE
GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO
LATE MONDAY

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 070011
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
711 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO
THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL PLAIN AND MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS
TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA WILL
PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT IN A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS... SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE NEAR AS COLD TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. BUT AS
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EXPECT A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO PULL THE COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO THE REST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF AREAS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE MAY ONLY MAKE
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. NAEFS MEMBERS
AGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON MSLP AND 500MB HEIGHTS PERHAPS AS
FAR OUT AS 66 HOURS OR ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INDUCE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE IMPULSES MOVE NORTH AND
EAST FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS OR SNOW-MAKERS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE OTHERS
KEEP THEM FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO AS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL
GFS BRING THE FIRST STORM JUST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN
FLURRIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE EURO SEEMS A BIT DRIER AS IT KEEPS THE DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE MORE ENTRENCHED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN 2-4
INCHES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS INLAND AS FAR AS AUGUSTA
MAINE AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS. WINDS MAY BE QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.

INTERESTINGLY THIS STORM IS VERY ANOMALOUS EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO
NAEFS PERCENTILES. THE STORM IS SHOWING A RETURN INTERVAL
OUTSIDE THE M-CLIMATE AND NAEFS RETURN INTERVALS AS IT
UNDERGOES BOMBOGENESIS IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THANKFULLY THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN HUNDREDS OF MILES
OFFSHORE.

ONE CONCERN IS THE TREND OF THE SREF PLUMES...WHICH SHOW 8-10
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THE SREF ACTUALLY HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS PAST FRIDAYS SNOWSTORM (FEB 5). SO SOME CAUTION IS NEEDED
HERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND FOR
ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF MONDAYS SYSTEM... WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER COASTAL
SYSTEM EJECTING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE
BOTTLED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADD PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
TO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAYS STORM.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A
MUCH COLDER...DRIER...AND DENSER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY
SATURDAY WE WILL SEE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SO FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND AGREES WITH THE PROJECTED DIP IN THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. NIL TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..LOWER ON THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TOWARD CAPE COD. COULD SEE
GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO
LATE MONDAY

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 070011
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
711 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO
THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL PLAIN AND MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS
TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA WILL
PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT IN A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS... SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE NEAR AS COLD TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. BUT AS
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EXPECT A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO PULL THE COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO THE REST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF AREAS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE MAY ONLY MAKE
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. NAEFS MEMBERS
AGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON MSLP AND 500MB HEIGHTS PERHAPS AS
FAR OUT AS 66 HOURS OR ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INDUCE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE IMPULSES MOVE NORTH AND
EAST FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS OR SNOW-MAKERS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE OTHERS
KEEP THEM FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO AS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL
GFS BRING THE FIRST STORM JUST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN
FLURRIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE EURO SEEMS A BIT DRIER AS IT KEEPS THE DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE MORE ENTRENCHED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN 2-4
INCHES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS INLAND AS FAR AS AUGUSTA
MAINE AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS. WINDS MAY BE QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.

INTERESTINGLY THIS STORM IS VERY ANOMALOUS EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO
NAEFS PERCENTILES. THE STORM IS SHOWING A RETURN INTERVAL
OUTSIDE THE M-CLIMATE AND NAEFS RETURN INTERVALS AS IT
UNDERGOES BOMBOGENESIS IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THANKFULLY THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN HUNDREDS OF MILES
OFFSHORE.

ONE CONCERN IS THE TREND OF THE SREF PLUMES...WHICH SHOW 8-10
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THE SREF ACTUALLY HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS PAST FRIDAYS SNOWSTORM (FEB 5). SO SOME CAUTION IS NEEDED
HERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND FOR
ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF MONDAYS SYSTEM... WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER COASTAL
SYSTEM EJECTING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE
BOTTLED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADD PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
TO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAYS STORM.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A
MUCH COLDER...DRIER...AND DENSER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY
SATURDAY WE WILL SEE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SO FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND AGREES WITH THE PROJECTED DIP IN THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. NIL TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..LOWER ON THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TOWARD CAPE COD. COULD SEE
GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO
LATE MONDAY

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 070011
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
711 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO
THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL PLAIN AND MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ON THIS
TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA WILL
PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT IN A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS... SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE NEAR AS COLD TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. BUT AS
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EXPECT A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO PULL THE COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO THE REST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF AREAS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE MAY ONLY MAKE
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. NAEFS MEMBERS
AGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON MSLP AND 500MB HEIGHTS PERHAPS AS
FAR OUT AS 66 HOURS OR ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INDUCE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE IMPULSES MOVE NORTH AND
EAST FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS OR SNOW-MAKERS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE OTHERS
KEEP THEM FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO AS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL
GFS BRING THE FIRST STORM JUST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN
FLURRIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE EURO SEEMS A BIT DRIER AS IT KEEPS THE DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE MORE ENTRENCHED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN 2-4
INCHES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS INLAND AS FAR AS AUGUSTA
MAINE AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS. WINDS MAY BE QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.

INTERESTINGLY THIS STORM IS VERY ANOMALOUS EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO
NAEFS PERCENTILES. THE STORM IS SHOWING A RETURN INTERVAL
OUTSIDE THE M-CLIMATE AND NAEFS RETURN INTERVALS AS IT
UNDERGOES BOMBOGENESIS IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THANKFULLY THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN HUNDREDS OF MILES
OFFSHORE.

ONE CONCERN IS THE TREND OF THE SREF PLUMES...WHICH SHOW 8-10
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THE SREF ACTUALLY HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS PAST FRIDAYS SNOWSTORM (FEB 5). SO SOME CAUTION IS NEEDED
HERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND FOR
ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF MONDAYS SYSTEM... WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER COASTAL
SYSTEM EJECTING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE
BOTTLED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADD PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
TO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAYS STORM.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A
MUCH COLDER...DRIER...AND DENSER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY
SATURDAY WE WILL SEE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SO FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND AGREES WITH THE PROJECTED DIP IN THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. NIL TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..LOWER ON THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TOWARD CAPE COD. COULD SEE
GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO
LATE MONDAY

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 062043
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO
THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA WILL
PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT IN A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS... SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE NEAR AS COLD TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. BUT AS
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EXPECT A
NORTHEAST FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO PULL THE COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO THE REST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF AREAS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE MAY ONLY MAKE
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. NAEFS MEMBERS
AGREE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT ON MSLP AND 500MB HEIGHTS PERHAPS AS
FAR OUT AS 66 HOURS OR ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INDUCE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE IMPULSES MOVE NORTH AND
EAST FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC... SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS OR SNOW-MAKERS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE OTHERS
KEEP THEM FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO AS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL
GFS BRING THE FIRST STORM JUST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN
FLURRIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE EURO SEEMS A BIT DRIER AS IT KEEPS THE DAMMING HIGH
PRESSURE MORE ENTRENCHED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN 2-4
INCHES CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS INLAND AS FAR AS AUGUSTA
MAINE AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS. WINDS MAY BE QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.

INTERESTINGLY THIS STORM IS VERY ANOMALOUS EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO
NAEFS PERCENTILES. THE STORM IS SHOWING A RETURN INTERVAL
OUTSIDE THE M-CLIMATE AND NAEFS RETURN INTERVALS AS IT
UNDERGOES BOMBOGENESIS IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THANKFULLY THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN HUNDREDS OF MILES
OFFSHORE.

ONE CONCERN IS THE TREND OF THE SREF PLUMES...WHICH SHOW 8-10
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THE SREF ACTUALLY HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS PAST FRIDAYS SNOWSTORM (FEB 5). SO SOME CAUTION IS NEEDED
HERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND FOR
ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF MONDAYS SYSTEM... WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER COASTAL
SYSTEM EJECTING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE
BOTTLED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADD PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
TO ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAYS STORM.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A
MUCH COLDER...DRIER...AND DENSER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY
SATURDAY WE WILL SEE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SO FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND AGREES WITH THE PROJECTED DIP IN THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION. NIL TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..LOWER ON THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVING TOWARD CAPE COD. COULD SEE
GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO
LATE MONDAY

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM... KIMBLE
LONG TERM... HANES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 061503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1003 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS LATER TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP GRADUALLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SQUALLS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ON TUESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
10AM...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER TO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE OR NORTHWEST MAINE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.


625 AM...
MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST 11Z MESONET AND TO REFLECT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS IN NEAR TERM GRIDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A 1031 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA. A 1015
MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
MOMENT. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A BAND OF MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THE GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE.
THEY`LL SLIDE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AND ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK TO
OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WE`LL SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A FEW SQUALLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH ITS PASSAGE AS WELL AS
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT. ON SUNDAY...WE STRUGGLE
TO GET ABOVE 30F IN THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE
WE`LL WARM INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WE AWAIT THE COLDER AIRS
ARRIVAL FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACKS OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
REMAINS THE EVENTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN PLAYERS ON THE TABLE REMAIN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH THE
OTHER BEING THE LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A FEW SMALL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN.

A LONG LOOK AT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA OVERNIGHT REVEALS
A CONSENSUS THAT FAVORS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW BEING TOO FAR OUT
TO SEA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR
AREA. ALL OF THE 50 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AROUND A SURFACE LOW TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS SUPPORTS THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THEREFORE A BIG IMPACT FROM THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED.

HOWEVER...OUR REGION OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOES GET INTO A COL
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL PRESENT A BROAD
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW FIRST DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME.

THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME PAINTS A MORE UNCERTAIN
PICTURE AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES. A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REAL ESTATE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE THAT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT...BUT WHERE AND HOW STRONG
IS THE PROBLEM. MUCH OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SCATTERED ALL OVER THE PLACE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CLUSTERING OF LOW CENTERS EAST OF IT/S 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 50 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO DEVELOP STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE-
IMPACT SNOWSTORM SOMEWHAT LIKE THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS
SENTIMENT IS SHARED BY A SMALL NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THEREFORE AS OF THIS WRITING...WILL HANDLE THE SITUATION WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
BASED ON THE REMAINING WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. IN A
NUTSHELL...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET AS FAR AS A POSSIBLE
IMPACTFUL SNOWSTORM GOES...CENTERED AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS
SOMETHING OF LOWER IMPACT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

THEREAFTER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO DROP THE POLAR VORTEX ON
TOP OF US NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME. IF THAT
VERIFIED WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON.
BUT WE/LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR AFTER 21Z IN ANY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR AFTER 06Z IN MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SQUALLS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOP ON MONDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW...WITH COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY. A COASTAL
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BUILD LATER TODAY IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH CONDITIONS
LINGERING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...MAINLY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS ONCE
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTH AND TRACK IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 061503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1003 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS LATER TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP GRADUALLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SQUALLS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ON TUESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
10AM...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER TO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE OR NORTHWEST MAINE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.


625 AM...
MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST 11Z MESONET AND TO REFLECT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS IN NEAR TERM GRIDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A 1031 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA. A 1015
MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
MOMENT. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A BAND OF MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THE GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE.
THEY`LL SLIDE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AND ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK TO
OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WE`LL SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A FEW SQUALLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH ITS PASSAGE AS WELL AS
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT. ON SUNDAY...WE STRUGGLE
TO GET ABOVE 30F IN THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE
WE`LL WARM INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WE AWAIT THE COLDER AIRS
ARRIVAL FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACKS OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
REMAINS THE EVENTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN PLAYERS ON THE TABLE REMAIN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH THE
OTHER BEING THE LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A FEW SMALL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN.

A LONG LOOK AT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA OVERNIGHT REVEALS
A CONSENSUS THAT FAVORS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW BEING TOO FAR OUT
TO SEA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR
AREA. ALL OF THE 50 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AROUND A SURFACE LOW TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS SUPPORTS THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THEREFORE A BIG IMPACT FROM THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED.

HOWEVER...OUR REGION OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOES GET INTO A COL
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL PRESENT A BROAD
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW FIRST DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME.

THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME PAINTS A MORE UNCERTAIN
PICTURE AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES. A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REAL ESTATE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE THAT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT...BUT WHERE AND HOW STRONG
IS THE PROBLEM. MUCH OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SCATTERED ALL OVER THE PLACE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CLUSTERING OF LOW CENTERS EAST OF IT/S 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 50 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO DEVELOP STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE-
IMPACT SNOWSTORM SOMEWHAT LIKE THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS
SENTIMENT IS SHARED BY A SMALL NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THEREFORE AS OF THIS WRITING...WILL HANDLE THE SITUATION WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
BASED ON THE REMAINING WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. IN A
NUTSHELL...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET AS FAR AS A POSSIBLE
IMPACTFUL SNOWSTORM GOES...CENTERED AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS
SOMETHING OF LOWER IMPACT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

THEREAFTER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO DROP THE POLAR VORTEX ON
TOP OF US NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME. IF THAT
VERIFIED WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON.
BUT WE/LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR AFTER 21Z IN ANY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR AFTER 06Z IN MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SQUALLS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOP ON MONDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW...WITH COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY. A COASTAL
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BUILD LATER TODAY IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH CONDITIONS
LINGERING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...MAINLY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS ONCE
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTH AND TRACK IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 061503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1003 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS LATER TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP GRADUALLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SQUALLS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ON TUESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
10AM...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER TO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE OR NORTHWEST MAINE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.


625 AM...
MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST 11Z MESONET AND TO REFLECT SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS IN NEAR TERM GRIDS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A 1031 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA. A 1015
MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
MOMENT. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A BAND OF MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THE GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE.
THEY`LL SLIDE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AND ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
DISTURBANCE AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK TO
OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WE`LL SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A FEW SQUALLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH ITS PASSAGE AS WELL AS
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT. ON SUNDAY...WE STRUGGLE
TO GET ABOVE 30F IN THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE
WE`LL WARM INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WE AWAIT THE COLDER AIRS
ARRIVAL FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACKS OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
REMAINS THE EVENTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN PLAYERS ON THE TABLE REMAIN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH THE
OTHER BEING THE LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A FEW SMALL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN.

A LONG LOOK AT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA OVERNIGHT REVEALS
A CONSENSUS THAT FAVORS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW BEING TOO FAR OUT
TO SEA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR
AREA. ALL OF THE 50 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AROUND A SURFACE LOW TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS SUPPORTS THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THEREFORE A BIG IMPACT FROM THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED.

HOWEVER...OUR REGION OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOES GET INTO A COL
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL PRESENT A BROAD
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW FIRST DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME.

THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME PAINTS A MORE UNCERTAIN
PICTURE AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES. A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REAL ESTATE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE THAT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT...BUT WHERE AND HOW STRONG
IS THE PROBLEM. MUCH OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SCATTERED ALL OVER THE PLACE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CLUSTERING OF LOW CENTERS EAST OF IT/S 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE 50 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO DEVELOP STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE-
IMPACT SNOWSTORM SOMEWHAT LIKE THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN. THIS
SENTIMENT IS SHARED BY A SMALL NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THEREFORE AS OF THIS WRITING...WILL HANDLE THE SITUATION WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
BASED ON THE REMAINING WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. IN A
NUTSHELL...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET AS FAR AS A POSSIBLE
IMPACTFUL SNOWSTORM GOES...CENTERED AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS
SOMETHING OF LOWER IMPACT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

THEREAFTER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO DROP THE POLAR VORTEX ON
TOP OF US NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME. IF THAT
VERIFIED WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON.
BUT WE/LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR AFTER 21Z IN ANY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR AFTER 06Z IN MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SQUALLS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOP ON MONDAY IN LIGHT
SNOW...WITH COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY. A COASTAL
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BUILD LATER TODAY IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH CONDITIONS
LINGERING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...MAINLY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS ONCE
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTH AND TRACK IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities