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000
FXUS61 KGYX 241841
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH.

THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CURTIS/CANNON





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241841
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH.

THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL CLIMB VERY SLOWLY.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS UP NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS THAT BECOME CLEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY. HOWEVER WITH
TIME...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LIFT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH
WARMER.

A COUPLE SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE TOWARDS
EVENING...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY BEGINS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE A FEW LINGERINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
PRECIP IN EARLIER WHILE THE CANADIAN HOLDS IT OFF FOR A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 90, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
APPROACHING IMPULSE, AND CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE WARM AIR MASS WILL KEEP HAIL FROM BEING A LARGE CONCERN, THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN.

BY THURSDAY THE MAIN HIGH HAS MOVED OFF EAST OF THE MARITIMES
LEAVING US ON THE PERIPHERY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
TO OUR NORTH MAY TOUCH OFF SHOWERS ... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HIE AND LEB... FURTHER
SOUTH EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL
BE DROPPING THE SCAS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CURTIS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241638
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1238 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...

***RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
 SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE***

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST- CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDITION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241638
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1238 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...

***RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERNMOST MAINE AND
 SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE***

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST- CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERNMOST MAINE. AFTER COORDITION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES AND THE STATE OF ME/NH...HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THESE AREAS. ADJACENT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED
THREAT AS WELL THROUGH 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH THE HWO
PRODUCT WHICH WE HAVE ALL SEASON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-
     019.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241533
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241533
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241533
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 241348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST SET
OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FRONTAL BOUNDRY FORMING OVER NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINE THIS MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
ENTER THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS.

BASED ON ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY DRY UP WHEN ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT READINGS SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
AREAS TO PEAK OUT AT 80 DEGREES TODAY OVER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...AS S/WV TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 241022 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN NRN ZONES THIS MORNING...AS S/WV
TROF CROSSES JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY.
WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO
KCON AND EWD TO KSFM. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN YESTERDAY...THE WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE
DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 240748
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND WILL WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND...WLY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM UP THE FORECAST AREA NICELY TODAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH POCKETS OF 80S FROM KASH TO KCON AND EWD TO KSFM.
DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN YESTERDAY...THE
WARM TEMPS WILL OFFSET THAT AND KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT.
CONTINUED GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL MEAN FIRE DANGER WILL STAY ELEVATED
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENOUGH GRAUPEL DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BY MON A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SW ADVECTING
OVER THE COLD GULF OF ME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO KEEP THAT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL ALSO BE LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN AREA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS...LIKE THE GFS...BRING THIS OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR MON. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POP
IN THE MTNS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND OVERRUNS CLOSED
LOW TO THE SOUTH SETTING UP REX BLOCK THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TOP A WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

INITIALLY ON MON NIGHT A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES LOW-MID LVL WARM FRONT SW-NE THRU THE AREA. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IT FLATTENS OUT
AND DYNAMICS WEAKEN AS THE WAA MOVES THRU. SO BEST CHC OF OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WITH COASTAL AREAS
ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO TUE MORNING...BUT RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AT LEAST AND WARMING TEMPS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND AND 70S ON THE COAST. WITH TDS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. AFTER A MUGGY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB SECURELY IN THE 80S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SRN NH MAKING A RUN AT 90. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IT TO STALL OR
WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
EURO. STILL COULD SET OFF SOME SOME CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU-SAT WE WILL BE SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500
MB JET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRO SOME WAVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. WHICH COULD SET OFF SHRA/TSRA AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH ANY FEATURE
TO NAIL DOWN THESE WAVES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID
THRU THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE 70S ON
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MON. GUSTY WLY WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER MON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TUE-THU. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WED
AND THU AFTERNOON..E.SPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...OVERLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NICELY
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING NEAR-SHORE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAYS AS A RESULT. ON THE OUTER WATERS
THE CONTINUED WLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASED
RECREATION ON THE WATERS A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEK...BUT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS N OF NEW ENGLAND
AND COULD ENHANCE SW FLOW AT TIMES THAT WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED TODAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY
MONDAY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 232316
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS AND TO DROP EXPIRED
RED FLAG WARNING AND SCA`S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINES INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231846
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY A COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&
$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231846
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL RH VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSON THE FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET...THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NOT NEARLY A COLD A NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RH
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE SLOWLY HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER...BUT MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START THE DAY
IN THE LOWER 40S...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS SO THERE
MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARDS ON
MONDAY. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFIT
OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH THE
70. THE COOL SPOT WILL BE ALONG PENOBSCOT BAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON-SHORE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S. ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES A GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE WARMTH MOVES NORTH TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH QUEBEC MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
LIFT.

WARM A HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR LOOKS LIKE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.75", WHICH IS AMONGST THE HIGHEST EVERY OBSERVED FOR GYX FOR
THAT DATE) AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS WEAK (UNDER 10KTS) DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH AND THUS THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING AS THE GROUND IS NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED.
OVERALL THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
DRY SPRING BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP OUR EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. AS IT BREAKS DOWN WE
MAY SEE A FRONT PULL THROUGH THE REGION TOUCHING OFF FURTHER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY AS THE MIXING LEVELS LOWER
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK. MVFR IN SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE WSW. IT WILL BE A
BORDERLINE SCA DAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO FLAGS ARE UP FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS
AND MIXING VALUES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE. WILL PROBABLY JUST
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY IN
THE HWO.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&
$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231539
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1139 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. THIS IS WHERETHE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS BUILDING
A CU FIELD. STAYED CLOSE IN LINE TO THE 06Z NAM12.

HAVE UPPED WIND GUSTS BY A COUPLE KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING LAYER MAY COUNTERACT THAT SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE WIND FIELDS.

RED FLAGS WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED THE LAKES FORECAST. RAISED THE 1 TO 2 FOOT FORECAST
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BASED ON A REPORT OUT ON THE LAKES DURING THE LAST
HOUR OF 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231539
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1139 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. THIS IS WHERETHE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS BUILDING
A CU FIELD. STAYED CLOSE IN LINE TO THE 06Z NAM12.

HAVE UPPED WIND GUSTS BY A COUPLE KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING LAYER MAY COUNTERACT THAT SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE WIND FIELDS.

RED FLAGS WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED THE LAKES FORECAST. RAISED THE 1 TO 2 FOOT FORECAST
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BASED ON A REPORT OUT ON THE LAKES DURING THE LAST
HOUR OF 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
FORECAST...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS BUILDING A CU
FIELD. STAYED CLOSE IN LINE TO THE 06Z NAM12.

HAVE UPPED WIND GUSTS BY A COUPLE KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING LAYER MAY COUNTERACT THAT SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE WIND FIELDS.

RED FLAGS WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED THE LAKES FORECAST. RAISED THE 1 TO 2 FOOT FORECAST
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BASED ON A REPORT OUT ON THE LAKES DURING THE LAST
HOUR OF 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231356
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
956 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE
FORECAST...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS BUILDING A CU
FIELD. STAYED CLOSE IN LINE TO THE 06Z NAM12.

HAVE UPPED WIND GUSTS BY A COUPLE KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING LAYER MAY COUNTERACT THAT SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE WIND FIELDS.

RED FLAGS WARNINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED THE LAKES FORECAST. RAISED THE 1 TO 2 FOOT FORECAST
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BASED ON A REPORT OUT ON THE LAKES DURING THE LAST
HOUR OF 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-
     006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231029 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 231029 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 231029 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS
MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS
POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND
STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO
WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A
QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD
FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220933 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220933 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220933 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE
BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE
BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE
BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 220746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE
BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
740 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE
NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT NORTHERN
AREAS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MORE CLOUDS HEAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH
PUSHES MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH BRINGS MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST SAT TRENDS AND ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING
SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE
BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST
FRONT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT
18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 212340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
740 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE
NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT NORTHERN
AREAS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MORE CLOUDS HEAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH
PUSHES MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH BRINGS MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST SAT TRENDS AND ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING
SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE
BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST
FRONT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT
18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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