Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KGYX 051344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

944 AM...COOL DAMP DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. WARMEST AND DRIEST WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
UPPER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
INGESTED THE CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF
UPDATE...OTHERWISE NIL OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DZ WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CLOUDS AS THE DAY
WARMS UP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...S/WV TROF AXIS IS CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS HOUR. AS IT DOES SO...RNFL IS MOVING EWD INTO
DOWNEAST ME. HAVE CUT POP BACK FROM W TO E IN LINE WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP. SOME WEAK LIFT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO
SOME DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NH THIS MORNING.

BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. BUT NE FLOW
CONTINUES...AND THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN
COOL AND CLOUDY. WELL INLAND...ACROSS NRN NH AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY AND
NEAR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH IT AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER E
WITH THE SFC LOW...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND KICKS IT OUT TO SEA. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL
SKIRT COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE CUT BACK POP FARTHER NW THOUGH WITH LATEST TRENDS.

BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW PRES...S/WV RIDGING LOOKS TO TRY AND
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FRI ON
THE DRIER SIDE. COOLER NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WILL BE
WEAKER...AND BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
DURING THE DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. UPPER LOW WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI AND SWING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO OR INTO SWRN NH
ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND OFF SHORE
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP INTO CUT OFF LOWS, THE EASTERN ONE SITTING OVER DELMARVA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNDER
A GENERALLY COOL AND WET REGIME. MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS
CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH CUT OFF LOWS,
HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING, AND PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD
THAT IS THREE STRIKES AGAINST THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED AND WILL THUS HEDGE TOWARDS THE STATUS QUO OF COOL AND
WET FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHWARDS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ON SUNDAY A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

MOVING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING COULD MOVE IN
MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE OUT IN TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR NEAR THE COAST...WITH MVFR INLAND...AS
RNFL MOVES INTO DOWNEAST ME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR IS STILL LIKELY IN
COOL...MOIST...NE FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF RA WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
COAST TONIGHT...WITH PWM...AUG...AND RKD MOST LIKELY TO SEE STEADY
PCPN. SFC GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IMPACTING ALL SITES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW PRES CROSSING THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. A LITTLE STRONGER LOW PRES
COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI.

LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SEAS
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SCA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE SCA ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND
IT COOL...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. MORE RAIN WILL BRUSH THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES. COOL
AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FORECAST SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FORT POINT AND SEACOAST NH
MOST LIKELY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO REVIEW 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON
POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...AND RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LINGER AS
WELL. HIGH TIDES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH SURGE TO SURPASS FLOOD STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 051344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

944 AM...COOL DAMP DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. WARMEST AND DRIEST WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
UPPER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
INGESTED THE CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF
UPDATE...OTHERWISE NIL OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DZ WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CLOUDS AS THE DAY
WARMS UP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...S/WV TROF AXIS IS CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS HOUR. AS IT DOES SO...RNFL IS MOVING EWD INTO
DOWNEAST ME. HAVE CUT POP BACK FROM W TO E IN LINE WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP. SOME WEAK LIFT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO
SOME DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NH THIS MORNING.

BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. BUT NE FLOW
CONTINUES...AND THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN
COOL AND CLOUDY. WELL INLAND...ACROSS NRN NH AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY AND
NEAR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH IT AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER E
WITH THE SFC LOW...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND KICKS IT OUT TO SEA. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL
SKIRT COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE CUT BACK POP FARTHER NW THOUGH WITH LATEST TRENDS.

BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW PRES...S/WV RIDGING LOOKS TO TRY AND
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FRI ON
THE DRIER SIDE. COOLER NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WILL BE
WEAKER...AND BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
DURING THE DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. UPPER LOW WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI AND SWING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO OR INTO SWRN NH
ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND OFF SHORE
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP INTO CUT OFF LOWS, THE EASTERN ONE SITTING OVER DELMARVA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNDER
A GENERALLY COOL AND WET REGIME. MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS
CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH CUT OFF LOWS,
HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING, AND PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD
THAT IS THREE STRIKES AGAINST THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED AND WILL THUS HEDGE TOWARDS THE STATUS QUO OF COOL AND
WET FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHWARDS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ON SUNDAY A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

MOVING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING COULD MOVE IN
MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE OUT IN TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR NEAR THE COAST...WITH MVFR INLAND...AS
RNFL MOVES INTO DOWNEAST ME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR IS STILL LIKELY IN
COOL...MOIST...NE FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF RA WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
COAST TONIGHT...WITH PWM...AUG...AND RKD MOST LIKELY TO SEE STEADY
PCPN. SFC GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IMPACTING ALL SITES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW PRES CROSSING THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. A LITTLE STRONGER LOW PRES
COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI.

LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SEAS
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SCA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE SCA ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND
IT COOL...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. MORE RAIN WILL BRUSH THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES. COOL
AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FORECAST SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FORT POINT AND SEACOAST NH
MOST LIKELY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO REVIEW 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON
POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...AND RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LINGER AS
WELL. HIGH TIDES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH SURGE TO SURPASS FLOOD STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES





000
FXUS61 KGYX 051121 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
721 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DZ WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CLOUDS AS THE DAY
WARMS UP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...S/WV TROF AXIS IS CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS HOUR. AS IT DOES SO...RNFL IS MOVING EWD INTO
DOWNEAST ME. HAVE CUT POP BACK FROM W TO E IN LINE WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP. SOME WEAK LIFT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO
SOME DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NH THIS MORNING.

BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. BUT NE FLOW
CONTINUES...AND THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN
COOL AND CLOUDY. WELL INLAND...ACROSS NRN NH AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY AND
NEAR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH IT AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER E
WITH THE SFC LOW...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND KICKS IT OUT TO SEA. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL
SKIRT COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE CUT BACK POP FARTHER NW THOUGH WITH LATEST TRENDS.

BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW PRES...S/WV RIDGING LOOKS TO TRY AND
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FRI ON
THE DRIER SIDE. COOLER NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WILL BE
WEAKER...AND BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
DURING THE DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. UPPER LOW WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI AND SWING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO OR INTO SWRN NH
ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND OFF SHORE
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP INTO CUT OFF LOWS, THE EASTERN ONE SITTING OVER DELMARVA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNDER
A GENERALLY COOL AND WET REGIME. MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS
CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH CUT OFF LOWS,
HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING, AND PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD
THAT IS THREE STRIKES AGAINST THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED AND WILL THUS HEDGE TOWARDS THE STATUS QUO OF COOL AND
WET FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHWARDS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ON SUNDAY A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

MOVING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING COULD MOVE IN
MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE OUT IN TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR NEAR THE COAST...WITH MVFR INLAND...AS
RNFL MOVES INTO DOWNEAST ME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR IS STILL LIKELY IN
COOL...MOIST...NE FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF RA WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
COAST TONIGHT...WITH PWM...AUG...AND RKD MOST LIKELY TO SEE STEADY
PCPN. SFC GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IMPACTING ALL SITES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW PRES CROSSING THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. A LITTLE STRONGER LOW PRES
COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI.

LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SEAS
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SCA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE SCA ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND
IT COOL...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. MORE RAIN WILL BRUSH THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES. COOL
AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FORECAST SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FORT POINT AND SEACOAST NH
MOST LIKELY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO REVIEW 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON
POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...AND RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LINGER AS
WELL. HIGH TIDES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH SURGE TO SURPASS FLOOD STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CURTIS
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 050929 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
529 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...STEADY RNFL HAS MOSTLY MOVED E OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS HOUR. STILL HANGING ONTO LOW POP...AS WEAK WAA IS STILL
LEADING TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE SOME AREAS OF DZ
REMAINING NEAR THE COAST. THOSE WILL LINGER THRU MORNING...AND I
HAVE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...S/WV TROF AXIS IS CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS HOUR. AS IT DOES SO...RNFL IS MOVING EWD INTO
DOWNEAST ME. HAVE CUT POP BACK FROM W TO E IN LINE WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP. SOME WEAK LIFT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO
SOME DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NH THIS MORNING.

BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. BUT NE FLOW
CONTINUES...AND THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN
COOL AND CLOUDY. WELL INLAND...ACROSS NRN NH AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY AND
NEAR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH IT AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER E
WITH THE SFC LOW...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND KICKS IT OUT TO SEA. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL
SKIRT COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE CUT BACK POP FARTHER NW THOUGH WITH LATEST TRENDS.

BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW PRES...S/WV RIDGING LOOKS TO TRY AND
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FRI ON
THE DRIER SIDE. COOLER NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WILL BE
WEAKER...AND BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
DURING THE DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. UPPER LOW WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI AND SWING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO OR INTO SWRN NH
ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND OFF SHORE
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP INTO CUT OFF LOWS, THE EASTERN ONE SITTING OVER DELMARVA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNDER
A GENERALLY COOL AND WET REGIME. MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS
CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH CUT OFF LOWS,
HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING, AND PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD
THAT IS THREE STRIKES AGAINST THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED AND WILL THUS HEDGE TOWARDS THE STATUS QUO OF COOL AND
WET FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHWARDS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ON SUNDAY A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

MOVING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING COULD MOVE IN
MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE OUT IN TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR NEAR THE COAST...WITH MVFR INLAND...AS
RNFL MOVES INTO DOWNEAST ME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR IS STILL LIKELY IN
COOL...MOIST...NE FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF RA WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
COAST TONIGHT...WITH PWM...AUG...AND RKD MOST LIKELY TO SEE STEADY
PCPN. SFC GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IMPACTING ALL SITES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW PRES CROSSING THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. A LITTLE STRONGER LOW PRES
COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI.

LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SEAS
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SCA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE SCA ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND
IT COOL...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. MORE RAIN WILL BRUSH THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES. COOL
AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FORECAST SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FORT POINT AND SEACOAST NH
MOST LIKELY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO REVIEW 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON
POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...AND RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LINGER AS
WELL. HIGH TIDES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH SURGE TO SURPASS FLOOD STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CURTIS
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 050733
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
S/WV TROF AXIS IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. AS IT
DOES SO...RNFL IS MOVING EWD INTO DOWNEAST ME. HAVE CUT POP BACK
FROM W TO E IN LINE WITH BACK EDGE OF PRECIP. SOME WEAK LIFT AND
SATURATED LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO SOME DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
NH THIS MORNING.

BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. BUT NE FLOW
CONTINUES...AND THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN
COOL AND CLOUDY. WELL INLAND...ACROSS NRN NH AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY AND
NEAR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH IT AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER E
WITH THE SFC LOW...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND KICKS IT OUT TO SEA. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL
SKIRT COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE CUT BACK POP FARTHER NW THOUGH WITH LATEST TRENDS.

BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW PRES...S/WV RIDGING LOOKS TO TRY AND
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FRI ON
THE DRIER SIDE. COOLER NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WILL BE
WEAKER...AND BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
DURING THE DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. UPPER LOW WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI AND SWING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO OR INTO SWRN NH
ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND OFF SHORE
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP INTO CUT OFF LOWS, THE EASTERN ONE SITTING OVER DELMARVA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNDER
A GENERALLY COOL AND WET REGIME. MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS
CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH CUT OFF LOWS,
HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING, AND PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD
THAT IS THREE STRIKES AGAINST THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED AND WILL THUS HEDGE TOWARDS THE STATUS QUO OF COOL AND
WET FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHWARDS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ON SUNDAY A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

MOVING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING COULD MOVE IN
MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE OUT IN TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR NEAR THE COAST...WITH MVFR INLAND...AS
RNFL MOVES INTO DOWNEAST ME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR IS STILL LIKELY IN
COOL...MOIST...NE FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF RA WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
COAST TONIGHT...WITH PWM...AUG...AND RKD MOST LIKELY TO SEE STEADY
PCPN. SFC GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IMPACTING ALL SITES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW PRES CROSSING THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. A LITTLE STRONGER LOW PRES
COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI.

LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SEAS
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SCA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE SCA ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND
IT COOL...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. MORE RAIN WILL BRUSH THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES. COOL
AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FORECAST SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FORT POINT AND SEACOAST NH
MOST LIKELY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO REVIEW 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON
POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...AND RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LINGER AS
WELL. HIGH TIDES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH SURGE TO SURPASS FLOOD STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CURTIS
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 050250
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1050 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE: WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS OF ME/NH. STICKING WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NH UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASED QPF TOTALS SOME ALONG COASTAL AND ADJACENT
INLAND AREAS. TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH AS FORECAST BUT A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON OBS.

450PM UPDATE: UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE HIGH POPS ACROSS NH AND
WESTERN ME THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OCCURRING. FURTHER E ACROSS THE MIDCOAST ONLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME AND LEFT VERY LOW POPS. INCREASED POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING AS WELL AS TRAJECTORIES AND MODELS ALL POINT TO AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE. RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SUPPORTS THIS SHORT
TERM TREND. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 050250
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1050 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE: WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS OF ME/NH. STICKING WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NH UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASED QPF TOTALS SOME ALONG COASTAL AND ADJACENT
INLAND AREAS. TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH AS FORECAST BUT A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON OBS.

450PM UPDATE: UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE HIGH POPS ACROSS NH AND
WESTERN ME THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OCCURRING. FURTHER E ACROSS THE MIDCOAST ONLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME AND LEFT VERY LOW POPS. INCREASED POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING AS WELL AS TRAJECTORIES AND MODELS ALL POINT TO AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE. RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SUPPORTS THIS SHORT
TERM TREND. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 050139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE: WIDESPREAD NOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF ME/NH. STICKING WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NH UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT.
INCREASED QPF TOTALS SOME ALONG COASTAL AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS.
TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH AS FORECAST BUT A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED
BASED ON OBS.

450PM UPDATE: UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE HIGH POPS ACROSS NH AND
WESTERN ME THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OCCURRING. FURTHER E ACROSS THE MIDCOAST ONLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME AND LEFT VERY LOW POPS. INCREASED POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING AS WELL AS TRAJECTORIES AND MODELS ALL POINT TO AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE. RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SUPPORTS THIS SHORT
TERM TREND. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 050139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE: WIDESPREAD NOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF ME/NH. STICKING WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NH UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT.
INCREASED QPF TOTALS SOME ALONG COASTAL AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS.
TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH AS FORECAST BUT A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED
BASED ON OBS.

450PM UPDATE: UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE HIGH POPS ACROSS NH AND
WESTERN ME THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OCCURRING. FURTHER E ACROSS THE MIDCOAST ONLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME AND LEFT VERY LOW POPS. INCREASED POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING AS WELL AS TRAJECTORIES AND MODELS ALL POINT TO AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE. RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SUPPORTS THIS SHORT
TERM TREND. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 042056
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
456 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
450PM UPDATE: UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE HIGH POPS ACROSS NH AND
WESTERN ME THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OCCURRING. FURTHER E ACROSS THE MIDCOAST ONLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME AND LEFT VERY LOW POPS. INCREASED POPS FOR THE EARLY
EVENING AS WELL AS TRAJECTORIES AND MODELS ALL POINT TO AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE. RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SUPPORTS THIS SHORT
TERM TREND. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 041939
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 041939
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 041828
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
228 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED AT ALL...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE
NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 5-6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 041828
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
228 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS.
ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE.

THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW
PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS.

IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON
FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A
BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD
EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT
SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW
PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE
ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF
NEEDED AT ALL...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE
NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION
BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK
COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 5-6 FEET.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...EKSTER





000
FXUS61 KGYX 041535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THE COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH
COOL...ONSHORE WINDS. ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SET
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE STUCK IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING PER LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF
THROUGH TONIGHT...DROPPING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.

LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE TODAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE... JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. A FEW
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ALLOWING FOR LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
DELMARVA AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT
OF THE EAST KEEPING COOL DAMP AIR IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE
REMAINS AROUND 45 DEGREES WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES. EVEN INLAND WHERE THE WATER IS NOT ALWAYS
A FACTOR THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST AND LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STEADY RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW TRIES TO MOVE OUT TO OUR EAST
IN THE GULF OF MAINE, HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE TO LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THE SYSTEM MAY STALL FURTHER...KEEPING THE DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, PATCHY FOG CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT UPPER LOW PRES CONTINUES ITS SLOW MIGRATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. S/WV TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE AND MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST INTO FRI MORNING. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RNFL AND
GENERAL LOW CLOUDS/COOL ONSHORE FLOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF S/WV
RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER LOW
THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THAT SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL
INCREASES IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER NRN STREAM UPPER LOW SENDING A COLD
FNT THRU THE REGION. THAT WILL PROLONG THE STRETCH OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RA. BEYOND
THAT...THERE IS STILL A CONSENSUS FOR RIDGING ON THE EAST COAST
AND WARMER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOLID CLOUD DECK OF 3500 TO 4000FT PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AT THIS POINT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MHT CON PSM AND PWM BY 21Z. OVERNIGHT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS
OF LIFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR PSM PWM AND RKD.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE GULF OF ME. LATE FRI
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON SHRA.
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
WINDS/SEAS.

LONG TERM...SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS RUNNING NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 041253
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
853 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THE COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH
COOL...ONSHORE WINDS. ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SET
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE STUCK IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING PER LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF
THROUGH TONIGHT...DROPPING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.

LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE TODAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE... JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. A FEW
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ALLOWING FOR LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
DELMARVA AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT
OF THE EAST KEEPING COOL DAMP AIR IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE
REMAINS AROUND 45 DEGREES WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES. EVEN INLAND WHERE THE WATER IS NOT ALWAYS
A FACTOR THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST AND LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STEADY RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW TRIES TO MOVE OUT TO OUR EAST
IN THE GULF OF MAINE, HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE TO LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THE SYSTEM MAY STALL FURTHER...KEEPING THE DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, PATCHY FOG CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT UPPER LOW PRES CONTINUES ITS SLOW MIGRATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. S/WV TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE AND MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST INTO FRI MORNING. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RNFL AND
GENERAL LOW CLOUDS/COOL ONSHORE FLOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF S/WV
RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER LOW
THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THAT SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL
INCREASES IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER NRN STREAM UPPER LOW SENDING A COLD
FNT THRU THE REGION. THAT WILL PROLONG THE STRETCH OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RA. BEYOND
THAT...THERE IS STILL A CONSENSUS FOR RIDGING ON THE EAST COAST
AND WARMER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOLID CLOUD DECK OF 3500 TO 4000FT PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AT THIS POINT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MHT CON PSM AND PWM BY 21Z. OVERNIGHT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS
OF LIFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR PSM PWM AND RKD.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE GULF OF ME. LATE FRI
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON SHRA.
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TODAY. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS RUNNING NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 041253
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
853 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THE COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH
COOL...ONSHORE WINDS. ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SET
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE STUCK IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING PER LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF
THROUGH TONIGHT...DROPPING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.

LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE TODAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PREV DISC...
6AM UPDATE... JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. A FEW
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ALLOWING FOR LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
DELMARVA AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT
OF THE EAST KEEPING COOL DAMP AIR IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE
REMAINS AROUND 45 DEGREES WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES. EVEN INLAND WHERE THE WATER IS NOT ALWAYS
A FACTOR THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST AND LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STEADY RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW TRIES TO MOVE OUT TO OUR EAST
IN THE GULF OF MAINE, HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE TO LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THE SYSTEM MAY STALL FURTHER...KEEPING THE DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, PATCHY FOG CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT UPPER LOW PRES CONTINUES ITS SLOW MIGRATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. S/WV TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE AND MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST INTO FRI MORNING. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RNFL AND
GENERAL LOW CLOUDS/COOL ONSHORE FLOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF S/WV
RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER LOW
THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THAT SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL
INCREASES IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER NRN STREAM UPPER LOW SENDING A COLD
FNT THRU THE REGION. THAT WILL PROLONG THE STRETCH OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RA. BEYOND
THAT...THERE IS STILL A CONSENSUS FOR RIDGING ON THE EAST COAST
AND WARMER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOLID CLOUD DECK OF 3500 TO 4000FT PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AT THIS POINT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MHT CON PSM AND PWM BY 21Z. OVERNIGHT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS
OF LIFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR PSM PWM AND RKD.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE GULF OF ME. LATE FRI
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON SHRA.
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TODAY. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS RUNNING NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 040953
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
553 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THE COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH
COOL...ONSHORE WINDS. ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SET
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE STUCK IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE... JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. A FEW
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ALLOWING FOR LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
DELMARVA AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT
OF THE EAST KEEPING COOL DAMP AIR IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE
REMAINS AROUND 45 DEGREES WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES. EVEN INLAND WHERE THE WATER IS NOT ALWAYS
A FACTOR THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST AND LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STEADY RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW TRIES TO MOVE OUT TO OUR EAST
IN THE GULF OF MAINE, HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE TO LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THE SYSTEM MAY STALL FURTHER...KEEPING THE DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, PATCHY FOG CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT UPPER LOW PRES CONTINUES ITS SLOW MIGRATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. S/WV TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE AND MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST INTO FRI MORNING. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RNFL AND
GENERAL LOW CLOUDS/COOL ONSHORE FLOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF S/WV
RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER LOW
THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THAT SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL
INCREASES IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER NRN STREAM UPPER LOW SENDING A COLD
FNT THRU THE REGION. THAT WILL PROLONG THE STRETCH OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RA. BEYOND
THAT...THERE IS STILL A CONSENSUS FOR RIDGING ON THE EAST COAST
AND WARMER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOLID CLOUD DECK OF 3500 TO 4000FT PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AT THIS POINT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MHT CON PSM AND PWM BY 21Z. OVERNIGHT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS
OF LIFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR PSM PWM AND RKD.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE GULF OF ME. LATE FRI
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON SHRA.
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TODAY. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS RUNNING NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...CURTIS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KGYX 040804
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
404 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THE COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH
COOL...ONSHORE WINDS. ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SET
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE STUCK IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
ALLOWING FOR LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE SOUTH ALONG
WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
KEEPING COOL DAMP AIR IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE REMAINS AROUND 45
DEGREES WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURES. EVEN INLAND WHERE THE WATER IS NOT ALWAYS A FACTOR
THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST AND LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW
50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STEADY RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW TRIES TO MOVE OUT TO OUR EAST
IN THE GULF OF MAINE, HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE TO LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THE SYSTEM MAY STALL FURTHER...KEEPING THE DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, PATCHY FOG CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT UPPER LOW PRES CONTINUES ITS SLOW MIGRATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. S/WV TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE AND MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST INTO FRI MORNING. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RNFL AND
GENERAL LOW CLOUDS/COOL ONSHORE FLOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF S/WV
RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER LOW
THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THAT SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL
INCREASES IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER NRN STREAM UPPER LOW SENDING A COLD
FNT THRU THE REGION. THAT WILL PROLONG THE STRETCH OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RA. BEYOND
THAT...THERE IS STILL A CONSENSUS FOR RIDGING ON THE EAST COAST
AND WARMER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOLID CLOUD DECK OF 3500 TO 4000FT PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AT THIS POINT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MHT CON PSM AND PWM BY 21Z. OVERNIGHT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS
OF LIFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR PSM PWM AND RKD.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE GULF OF ME. LATE FRI
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON SHRA.
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TODAY. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS RUNNING NEAR 5 FT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...CURTIS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 040112
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
905 PM UPDATE: ALL SHOWERS HAVE NOW MOVED OFF THE COAST. UPSTREAM
ACROSS UPTATE NY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR. NOT EXPECTING
THESE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST TONIGHT AS PER MODELS SUGGEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT DRY BUT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME VERY MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

425 PM UPDATE: SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE SO WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO INCLUDE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THESE OUTLINED
AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASS BORDER THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MAINLY
DRY MORNING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
OR A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A RAINY
EVENING IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAXIMIZES. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY REPLACE THE
LARGER RAINDROPS AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY INTENSIFIES...PASSING EAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND
ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO ENTER
THE REGION ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS INTENSIFICATION.
THE EURO AND GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE GGEM STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER...HOWEVER A COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT. A FEW AREAS
OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY LATE WED MORNING
BUT WILL TREND DOWN ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS RAIN DEVELOPS.
IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN WED EVENING AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A RAW NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENTER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND A GUSTY
NORTHEAST GRADIENT DEVELOPS. EXPECT WAVES IN THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE
TO CONTINUE...ABOVE SCA CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND.

WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 032030
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
430 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
425 PM UPDATE: SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE SO WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO INCLUDE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THESE OUTLINED
AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASS BORDER THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MAINLY
DRY MORNING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
OR A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A RAINY
EVENING IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAXIMIZES. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY REPLACE THE
LARGER RAINDROPS AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY INTENSIFIES...PASSING EAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND
ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO ENTER
THE REGION ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS INTENSIFICATION.
THE EURO AND GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE GGEM STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER...HOWEVER A COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT. A FEW AREAS
OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY LATE WED MORNING
BUT WILL TREND DOWN ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS RAIN DEVELOPS.
IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN WED EVENING AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A RAW NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENTER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND A GUSTY
NORTHEAST GRADIENT DEVELOPS. EXPECT WAVES IN THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE
TO CONTINUE...ABOVE SCA CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND.

WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 031826
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE
COD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASS BORDER THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MAINLY
DRY MORNING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
OR A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A RAINY
EVENING IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAXIMIZES. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DRIZZLE WILL PROBABLY REPLACE THE
LARGER RAINDROPS AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY INTENSIFIES...PASSING EAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND
ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO ENTER
THE REGION ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS INTENSIFICATION.
THE EURO AND GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE GGEM STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER...HOWEVER A COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT. A FEW AREAS
OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY LATE WED MORNING
BUT WILL TREND DOWN ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS RAIN DEVELOPS.
IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN WED EVENING AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A RAW NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENTER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND A GUSTY
NORTHEAST GRADIENT DEVELOPS. EXPECT WAVES IN THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE
TO CONTINUE...ABOVE SCA CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND.

WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CANNON





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031716
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
116 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS THIS LOW MOVES BY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATOCU WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY.

920 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY POP AND SKY TO
ADJUST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY FROM HERE ON OUT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED A
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.

620AM UPDATE...
RAIN IS SKIRTING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST WITH LATEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S FOR HIGHS.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF CAPE COD MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THIS
AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS MOVING THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS
AND NEAR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC
AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THIS WILL BEGIN A PUSH OF EASTERLY
WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. SINCE THE GULF OF MAINE HAS NOT BEEN SCOURED OF
MOISTURE... EXPECT THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO REINFORCE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS AND FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY... BUT GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...THIS
MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES. A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SET UP
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
S/WV TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL HELP TO
AMPLIFY AND CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS TROF THAT WILL
DOMINATE OUR WX THRU THE WEEKEND. THE DEVELOPING L/WV TROF IS NOW
FORECAST TO APPROACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WILL HAVE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE
WX AS A RESULT. HERE IN THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL PLACE US IN THE
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. SO WE/LL CONTINUE WITH
COOL...CLOUDY...MOIST...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

THU AND FRI WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM THAT ONSHORE
FLOW...AND POP IS HIGHEST FOR THESE PERIODS. AS UPPER LOW MOVES
MORE OVERHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...I FEEL THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE
TO HAVE MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO IT. MEANING SHOWERS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
NOT THE BEST OUTDOOR WX...BUT ALSO NOT A WASHOUT.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BUILD SOME
EAST COAST RIDGING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT COULD
BRING US A COUPLE OF DRIER AND WARMER DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
HOWEVER...THE SAME GEFS AND EPS MEANS DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF
UPSTREAM AND TRY AND MIGRATE IT OUR WAY YET AGAIN. THERE ARE
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE THEN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT... AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SEND A FRESH BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO MAINE AND
EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE CONDITIONS STAY VFR WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WX PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. THU INTO FRI PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND
MARITIME INFLUENCES WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LIKELY TO ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE
INTERIOR TERMINALS...LEB AND HIE. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER
LOW MOVES CLOSER AND WX WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARDS DIURNAL
SHRA. AFTERNOON MVFR...LOCAL IFR...SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR OR
MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO BELOW 5 FT THEREFORE A SCA IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT. EXPECT GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
TODAY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK TO AROUND 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS THIS LOW MOVES BY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY POP AND SKY TO
ADJUST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY FROM HERE ON OUT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED A
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.

620AM UPDATE...
RAIN IS SKIRTING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST WITH LATEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S FOR HIGHS.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF CAPE COD MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THIS
AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS MOVING THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS
AND NEAR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC
AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THIS WILL BEGIN A PUSH OF EASTERLY
WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. SINCE THE GULF OF MAINE HAS NOT BEEN SCOURED OF
MOISTURE... EXPECT THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO REINFORCE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS AND FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY... BUT GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...THIS
MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES. A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SET UP
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
S/WV TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL HELP TO
AMPLIFY AND CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS TROF THAT WILL
DOMINATE OUR WX THRU THE WEEKEND. THE DEVELOPING L/WV TROF IS NOW
FORECAST TO APPROACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WILL HAVE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE
WX AS A RESULT. HERE IN THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL PLACE US IN THE
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. SO WE/LL CONTINUE WITH
COOL...CLOUDY...MOIST...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

THU AND FRI WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM THAT ONSHORE
FLOW...AND POP IS HIGHEST FOR THESE PERIODS. AS UPPER LOW MOVES
MORE OVERHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...I FEEL THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE
TO HAVE MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO IT. MEANING SHOWERS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
NOT THE BEST OUTDOOR WX...BUT ALSO NOT A WASHOUT.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BUILD SOME
EAST COAST RIDGING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT COULD
BRING US A COUPLE OF DRIER AND WARMER DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
HOWEVER...THE SAME GEFS AND EPS MEANS DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF
UPSTREAM AND TRY AND MIGRATE IT OUR WAY YET AGAIN. THERE ARE
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE THEN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT... AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SEND A FRESH BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO MAINE AND
EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE CONDITIONS STAY VFR WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WX PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. THU INTO FRI PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND
MARITIME INFLUENCES WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LIKELY TO ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE
INTERIOR TERMINALS...LEB AND HIE. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER
LOW MOVES CLOSER AND WX WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARDS DIURNAL
SHRA. AFTERNOON MVFR...LOCAL IFR...SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR OR
MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO BELOW 5 FT THEREFORE A SCA IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT. EXPECT GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
TODAY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK TO AROUND 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 031022
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS THIS LOW MOVES BY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
620AM UPDATE...
RAIN IS SKIRTING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST WITH LATEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S FOR HIGHS.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF CAPE COD MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THIS
AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS MOVING THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS
AND NEAR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC
AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THIS WILL BEGIN A PUSH OF EASTERLY
WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. SINCE THE GULF OF MAINE HAS NOT BEEN SCOURED OF
MOISTURE... EXPECT THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO REINFORCE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS AND FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY... BUT GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...THIS
MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES. A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SET UP
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
S/WV TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL HELP TO
AMPLIFY AND CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS TROF THAT WILL
DOMINATE OUR WX THRU THE WEEKEND. THE DEVELOPING L/WV TROF IS NOW
FORECAST TO APPROACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WILL HAVE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE
WX AS A RESULT. HERE IN THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL PLACE US IN THE
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. SO WE/LL CONTINUE WITH
COOL...CLOUDY...MOIST...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

THU AND FRI WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM THAT ONSHORE
FLOW...AND POP IS HIGHEST FOR THESE PERIODS. AS UPPER LOW MOVES
MORE OVERHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...I FEEL THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE
TO HAVE MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO IT. MEANING SHOWERS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
NOT THE BEST OUTDOOR WX...BUT ALSO NOT A WASHOUT.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BUILD SOME
EAST COAST RIDGING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT COULD
BRING US A COUPLE OF DRIER AND WARMER DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
HOWEVER...THE SAME GEFS AND EPS MEANS DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF
UPSTREAM AND TRY AND MIGRATE IT OUR WAY YET AGAIN. THERE ARE
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE THEN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
MAINE WITH SOME BREAKS OCCURRING BEHIND IT. HOWEVER... THE BREAKS
HAVE LED TO FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT MANCHESTER AND
PORTSMOUTH. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT... AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SEND A FRESH BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO MAINE
AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE CONDITIONS STAY VFR WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WX PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. THU INTO FRI PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND
MARITIME INFLUENCES WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LIKELY TO ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE
INTERIOR TERMINALS...LEB AND HIE. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER
LOW MOVES CLOSER AND WX WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARDS DIURNAL
SHRA. AFTERNOON MVFR...LOCAL IFR...SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR OR
MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE CREPT UP TO AROUND 5 FEET SO WILL
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE. EXPECT GENERALLY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND TODAY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK TO AROUND 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 030732
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS THIS LOW MOVES BY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S FOR HIGHS.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF CAPE COD MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THIS
AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS MOVING THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS
AND NEAR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC
AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THIS WILL BEGIN A PUSH OF EASTERLY
WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. SINCE THE GULF OF MAINE HAS NOT BEEN SCOURED OF
MOISTURE... EXPECT THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO REINFORCE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS AND FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY... BUT GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...THIS
MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES. A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SET UP
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
S/WV TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL HELP TO
AMPLIFY AND CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS TROF THAT WILL
DOMINATE OUR WX THRU THE WEEKEND. THE DEVELOPING L/WV TROF IS NOW
FORECAST TO APPROACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WILL HAVE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE
WX AS A RESULT. HERE IN THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL PLACE US IN THE
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. SO WE/LL CONTINUE WITH
COOL...CLOUDY...MOIST...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

THU AND FRI WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM THAT ONSHORE
FLOW...AND POP IS HIGHEST FOR THESE PERIODS. AS UPPER LOW MOVES
MORE OVERHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...I FEEL THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE
TO HAVE MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO IT. MEANING SHOWERS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
NOT THE BEST OUTDOOR WX...BUT ALSO NOT A WASHOUT.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BUILD SOME
EAST COAST RIDGING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT COULD
BRING US A COUPLE OF DRIER AND WARMER DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
HOWEVER...THE SAME GEFS AND EPS MEANS DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF
UPSTREAM AND TRY AND MIGRATE IT OUR WAY YET AGAIN. THERE ARE
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE THEN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
MAINE WITH SOME BREAKS OCCURRING BEHIND IT. HOWEVER... THE BREAKS
HAVE LED TO FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT MANCHESTER AND
PORTSMOUTH. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT... AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SEND A FRESH BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO MAINE
AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE CONDITIONS STAY VFR WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WX PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. THU INTO FRI PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND
MARITIME INFLUENCES WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LIKELY TO ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE
INTERIOR TERMINALS...LEB AND HIE. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER
LOW MOVES CLOSER AND WX WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARDS DIURNAL
SHRA. AFTERNOON MVFR...LOCAL IFR...SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR OR
MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE CREPT UP TO AROUND 5 FEET SO WILL
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE. EXPECT GENERALLY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND TODAY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK TO AROUND 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 030732
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE TODAY AS THIS LOW MOVES BY. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY AND COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S FOR HIGHS.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF CAPE COD MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING THIS
AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS MOVING THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS
AND NEAR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC
AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THIS WILL BEGIN A PUSH OF EASTERLY
WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. SINCE THE GULF OF MAINE HAS NOT BEEN SCOURED OF
MOISTURE... EXPECT THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO REINFORCE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS AND FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY... BUT GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...THIS
MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES. A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SET UP
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
S/WV TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL HELP TO
AMPLIFY AND CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS TROF THAT WILL
DOMINATE OUR WX THRU THE WEEKEND. THE DEVELOPING L/WV TROF IS NOW
FORECAST TO APPROACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WILL HAVE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE
WX AS A RESULT. HERE IN THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL PLACE US IN THE
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. SO WE/LL CONTINUE WITH
COOL...CLOUDY...MOIST...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

THU AND FRI WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM THAT ONSHORE
FLOW...AND POP IS HIGHEST FOR THESE PERIODS. AS UPPER LOW MOVES
MORE OVERHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...I FEEL THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE
TO HAVE MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO IT. MEANING SHOWERS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
NOT THE BEST OUTDOOR WX...BUT ALSO NOT A WASHOUT.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BUILD SOME
EAST COAST RIDGING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT COULD
BRING US A COUPLE OF DRIER AND WARMER DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
HOWEVER...THE SAME GEFS AND EPS MEANS DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF
UPSTREAM AND TRY AND MIGRATE IT OUR WAY YET AGAIN. THERE ARE
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE THEN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
MAINE WITH SOME BREAKS OCCURRING BEHIND IT. HOWEVER... THE BREAKS
HAVE LED TO FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT MANCHESTER AND
PORTSMOUTH. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT... AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SEND A FRESH BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO MAINE
AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE CONDITIONS STAY VFR WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WX PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. THU INTO FRI PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND
MARITIME INFLUENCES WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LIKELY TO ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE
INTERIOR TERMINALS...LEB AND HIE. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER
LOW MOVES CLOSER AND WX WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARDS DIURNAL
SHRA. AFTERNOON MVFR...LOCAL IFR...SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR OR
MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE CREPT UP TO AROUND 5 FEET SO WILL
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE. EXPECT GENERALLY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND TODAY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK TO AROUND 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO





000
FXUS61 KGYX 030126
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
926 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF COOLER...ONSHORE
FLOW AND SHOWERY WEATHER PERHAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
920 PM UPDATE: RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS ALL OF NH AND SOUTHWEST ME.
STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
COASTAL MIDCOAST AREAS BUT WILL BE ENDING THERE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS FORECAST. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

620 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. THE SLUG OF RAIN NOW
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINE EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHAT WILL BE LEFT IS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE EVENING. NO NEED FOR ANY REAL CHANGES AT
THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR TWEAKING TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLY OBS
DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A SLUG OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST. THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL MOVE WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY GRAZE
SOUTHERNMOST NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER ANY LIGHT RAIN MOVES ON OUT OF SOUTHERNMOST NH IN THE
MORNING...THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST EVERYONE.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK TROFFING LINGERING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL...HOWEVER A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S READINGS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER ON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. BY LATE SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY EXIT THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW WHICH QUICKLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THE OVERALL THEME OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. IN THE DAILIES....ONSHORE FLOW AND A SYSTEM PASSING OFFSHORE
CLOUD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE A DRY DAY
AND A FEW SUNNY BREAKS TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ZONES.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOWS
TRACK NORTH ON A STALLED OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. PERHAPS A BRIEF
BREAK LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE ARRIVING ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GENERATE A FEW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT
LATE MONDAY WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OFFERING A WARM DRY DAY
FOR A CHANGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR TONIGHT AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE GOES LIFR IN FOG
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE METMOS IMPROVES THINGS
QUITE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN. THE
NARRE-TL IS ON THE SIDE OF THE NAM LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT RATHER THAN SLAMMING EVERYONE DOWN. HAVE SIDED WITH
THE LATTER CONSENSUS WITH NO WIDESPREAD 1/2 MILE OR LESS VSBYS.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT LOCALLY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT... AN
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN GENERATING WAVES WHICH WILL HEAD WESTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SUB-SCA MUCH OF TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WED PM - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
BAYS IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BE CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 022223
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF COOLER...ONSHORE
FLOW AND SHOWERY WEATHER PERHAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
620 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. THE SLUG OF RAIN NOW
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINE EXITING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHAT WILL BE LEFT IS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE EVENING. NO NEED FOR ANY REAL CHANGES AT
THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR TWEAKING TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLY OBS
DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A SLUG OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST. THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL MOVE WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY GRAZE
SOUTHERNMOST NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER ANY LIGHT RAIN MOVES ON OUT OF SOUTHERNMOST NH IN THE
MORNING...THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST EVERYONE.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK TROFFING LINGERING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL...HOWEVER A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S READINGS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER ON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. BY LATE SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY EXIT THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW WHICH QUICKLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THE OVERALL THEME OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. IN THE DAILIES....ONSHORE FLOW AND A SYSTEM PASSING OFFSHORE
CLOUD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE A DRY DAY
AND A FEW SUNNY BREAKS TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ZONES.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOWS
TRACK NORTH ON A STALLED OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. PERHAPS A BRIEF
BREAK LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE ARRIVING ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GENERATE A FEW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT
LATE MONDAY WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OFFERING A WARM DRY DAY
FOR A CHANGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR TONIGHT AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE GOES LIFR IN FOG
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE METMOS IMPROVES THINGS
QUITE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN. THE
NARRE-TL IS ON THE SIDE OF THE NAM LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT RATHER THAN SLAMMING EVERYONE DOWN. HAVE SIDED WITH
THE LATTER CONSENSUS WITH NO WIDESPREAD 1/2 MILE OR LESS VSBYS.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT LOCALLY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT... AN
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN GENERATING WAVES WHICH WILL HEAD WESTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SUB-SCA MUCH OF TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WED PM - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
BAYS IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BE CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KGYX 021845
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF COOLER...ONSHORE
FLOW AND SHOWERY WEATHER PERHAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLUG OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST. THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL MOVE WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY GRAZE
SOUTHERNMOST NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER ANY LIGHT RAIN MOVES ON OUT OF SOUTHERNMOST NH IN THE
MORNING...THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST EVERYONE.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK TROFFING LINGERING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL...HOWEVER A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S READINGS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER ON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. BY LATE SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY EXIT THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW WHICH QUICKLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THE OVERALL THEME OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. IN THE DAILIES....ONSHORE FLOW AND A SYSTEM PASSING OFFSHORE
CLOUD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE A DRY DAY
AND A FEW SUNNY BREAKS TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ZONES.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOWS
TRACK NORTH ON A STALLED OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. PERHAPS A BRIEF
BREAK LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE ARRIVING ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GENERATE A FEW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT
LATE MONDAY WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OFFERING A WARM DRY DAY
FOR A CHANGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR TONIGHT AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE GOES LIFR IN FOG
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE METMOS IMPROVES THINGS
QUITE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN. THE
NARRE-TL IS ON THE SIDE OF THE NAM LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT RATHER THAN SLAMMING EVERYONE DOWN. HAVE SIDED WITH
THE LATTER CONSENSUS WITH NO WIDESPREAD 1/2 MILE OR LESS VSBYS.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT LOCALLY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT... AN
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN GENERATING WAVES WHICH WILL HEAD WESTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SUB-SCA MUCH OF TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WED PM - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
BAYS IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BE CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS





000
FXUS61 KGYX 021635
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE AREA OF RAIN DEPARTS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ANOTHER
WILL FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL TRY AND STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1235 PM UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST MOTION
AND EXTENT OF BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NH.
OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

930 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA. DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE IN MAINE THIS MORNING. A BATCH OF STEADY RAIN WILL ARRIVE
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS NH AND ME AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE BAND OF RAIN IS RATHER
NARROW...SO IT WILL LIKELY END FROM SW TO NE...ENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH FIRST AROUND 20Z OR SO. HOWEVER...DRIZZLE MAY FILL IN
BEHIND IT...MOST LIKELY IN MAINE.

7AM UPDATE...
JUST GOT A CALL FROM OUR FRIENDLY OBSERVER IN EUSTIS MAINE WHO
REPORTED THAT PRECIPITATION HAD JUST CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. THIS
WAS AN AREA WHERE WE HAD LOWER CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO GO MORE BROAD WITH THE AREA OF SNOW FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

645AM UPDATE...
HAVE FURTHER REFINED EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AREA OF SHOWERS JUST WON`T QUIT AS NEW
ACTIVITY KEEPS REGENERATING. HOWEVER... THE OVERALL TREND OF
SHOWERS MOVING TO THE EAST IS STILL CLEAR... EVEN IF THE
PROGRESSION IS SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. SHOULD SEE THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN ARRIVING IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 11AM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA... EACH ONE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH IN ITS TRACK THAN THE LAST.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EXITING TO THE EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT THE NEXT ONE IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SO WHILE SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING... ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... A PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...CLOUD
COVER... AND RAIN. WENT A LITTLE BIT BELOW MOST OF THE FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL BE VERY
DIFFICULT FOR MOST OF US TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT... TAKING THE STEADIER RAIN WITH IT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND IT BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
ONE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ONLY SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
PERHAPS COASTAL MAINE ARE AFFECTED WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. BUT IT
WILL HELP TO KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL ONCE AGAIN. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT HAS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY WHILE
MOST OF THE MOS TRIES TO WARM THINGS UP MORE. DECIDED TO GO CLOSER
TO THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER... ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TEMPERATURES COULD
WARM INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS A BIT LIKE A PUBLIC SERVICE
ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE DANGERS OF SPRING IN NEW ENGLAND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEEPENING OF AN ERN CONUS TROF...WITH EVENTUAL CUT OFF LOW
FORMATION TO OUR SW.

A LEAST A FEW DAYS OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...AND SHOWERY WX ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. FAVORED BLENDING IN A LITTLE MORE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AS MOS RELATED PRODUCTS
ARE LIKELY BRINGING TEMPS UP TOO MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP IN THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...POP IS DIFFICULT
TO NAIL DOWN...AS NO ONE PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE OR LESS LIKELY FOR
RNFL AT THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A STRONGER S/WV MAY TRY AND
PASS THE AREA THU...BUT PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW MAY ALSO FAVOR
DIURNAL INCREASES IN SHOWERS WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

THE RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVEN IF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT. THE TREND OF COOLER
THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY...SO THE CALENDAR MAY HAVE
CHANGED MONTHS BUT IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE WX PATTERN HAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
IFR OR WORSE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT... BUT WITH ALL THE
RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY ANY CLEARING WILL JUST BE GROUNDS TO CAUSE
FOG TO FORM AGAIN WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE MOIST SURFACE AIR.

LONG TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRES
SYSTEM...CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SHRA...AS WELL AS ANY MARINE FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY... AN
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN GENERATING WAVES WHICH WILL HEAD WESTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED
THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRES TO OUR S WILL BRING NE
FLOW ON THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...LONG DURATION NE FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS
OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO NEAR 5 FT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BE PRETTY CONSISTENTLY MOIST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...KIMBLE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities