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000
FXUS64 KHGX 232049
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY (83-88 INLAND) WITH MOIST
S-SE FLOW IN PLACE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND S/W ENERGY ROTATES UP OVER THE RED RIVER WHICH
WILL PROBABLY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR SETX TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
MILD PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THURSDAY
AND STALLS WITH A GOOD CAP IN PLACE. WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER
AIR ALBEIT BRIEFLY BEFORE SE TO SOUTH FLOW INCREASES.

THIS MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH FOG
THREAT A LITTLE GREATER FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN THE NORTH AND
NOTICEABLE DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH GREATER
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

SATURDAY WARM AND MOIST AND AS NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO NM SUNDAY
MORNING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH LLJ OVERHEAD AND NEARLY
SPLITTING UPPER JET BUT MAY BE TOO CAPPED. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
PACIFIC FRONT IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE REGION AND INCREASING PVA
AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER JET MAY GIVE THE AREA THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT AT 30 NORTH EARLY THEN
TAPERING DOWN TO 20S BY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS
TO FLIP FLOP ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW (WHICH MAY BE
FURTHER NORTH). DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER (AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) SHOULD PREVAIL WED/THU/FRI.
45


&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. CAUTION FLAGS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY SUNDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  85  65  85  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  76  68  78  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY AM FOG HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH CU FIELD NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CIGS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS CAN TEND TO
OVERDO MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION BUT BOTH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT. DECIDED AGAINST USING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MOST SITES AS THERE WONT BE MUCH VARIANCE... ONCE
IFR CIGS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA SUPPORTING A DECK OF BKN/SCT
CLOUDS AFTER THE DENSE FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THEN SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH. SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TONIGHT AND MAY SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER CIGS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WELL. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY FOR CURRENT
WINDS AND SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TODAY
WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY IN A DEEP WELL MIXED BL UP THROUGH 4.5-5.5KFT.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR NITE/FRI
MORN WITH A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL
TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION AS ANY
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DOING SO
WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE FAR
INTERIOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 31

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  65  85  66 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  76  68  79  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231545
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA SUPPORTING A DECK OF BKN/SCT
CLOUDS AFTER THE DENSE FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THEN SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH. SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TONIGHT AND MAY SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER CIGS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WELL. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY FOR CURRENT
WINDS AND SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TODAY
WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY IN A DEEP WELL MIXED BL UP THROUGH 4.5-5.5KFT.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR NITE/FRI
MORN WITH A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL
TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION AS ANY
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DOING SO
WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE FAR
INTERIOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 31

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  65  86  65  85 /  10  20  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  65  84  66  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  68  79 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231007
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR NITE/FRI
MORN WITH A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL
TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION AS ANY
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DOING SO
WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE FAR
INTERIOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  65  86  65  85 /  10  20  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  65  84  66  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  68  79 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231002
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR
NITE/FRI MORN WILL A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN
GENERAL TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION
AS ANY DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DOING SO WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR
MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  65  86  65  85 /  10  20  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  65  84  66  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  68  79 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230505
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSION.

&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE COAST.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR OVER
INLAND TERMINALS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMP AND SKY GRIDS. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL PROBABLY GET SOME DENSE
FOG BY SUNRISE AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MORNING. 43

&&

CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KIAH REACHED 87 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS YEAR AND THE WARMEST IT HAS BEEN
SINCE OCT 15 2013 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE WARMED TO 88 DEGREES.

WORKING ON A PNS FOR RAINFALL AS WELL. SOME INTERESTING NUMBERS TO
WHET YOUR APPETITE. KLBX IS SUFFERING A RAINFALL DEFECIT OF -14.68
INCHES SINCE NOV 1 2013 AND KHOU IS -10.00 INCHES BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOV 1ST. RAINFALL ACROSS SE TX HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL EVERY
MONTH SINCE NOVEMBER. IMPACTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN MINOR AS AREA
RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  84  65  85  66 /  10  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  79  68  78  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230127
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
827 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMP AND SKY GRIDS. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL PROBABLY GET SOME DENSE
FOG BY SUNRISE AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MORNING. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KIAH REACHED 87 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS YEAR AND THE WARMEST IT HAS BEEN
SINCE OCT 15 2013 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE WARMED TO 88 DEGREES.

WORKING ON A PNS FOR RAINFALL AS WELL. SOME INTERESTING NUMBERS TO
WHET YOUR APPETITE. KLBX IS SUFFERING A RAINFALL DEFECIT OF -14.68
INCHES SINCE NOV 1 2013 AND KHOU IS -10.00 INCHES BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOV 1ST. RAINFALL ACROSS SE TX HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL EVERY
MONTH SINCE NOVEMBER. IMPACTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN MINOR AS AREA
RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
NIGHT UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. 44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK (BUT BRIEF)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE WX FOR SE TX GENERALLY DRY/QUIET THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS. BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN POSSIBLE (MAINLY OVER THE NRN COUNTIES) BY
THURS AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. NOT EXPECTING FROPA
FOR MOST (IF ANY) OF OUR CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT. THIS COULD GIVE US A FEW
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S.. A VERY BROAD/DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENT-
RAL PLAINS SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THRU
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH A POSSIBLE STRONG-FOR-THIS
-TIME-OF-YEAR COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE MON/TUES. SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT STARTING LATE SAT WITH
STRONG WAA SETTING UP. BEST POPS SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN COOL/DRY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE
STILL TALKING FCSTS FOR DAYS 7/8 AND BEYOND. 41

MARINE...
YET AGAIN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND
FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED NIGHT BUT WILL BE BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY OTHER MARINE HAZARDS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  79  68  79  68 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230006
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
NIGHT UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK (BUT BRIEF)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE WX FOR SE TX GENERALLY DRY/QUIET THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS. BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN POSSIBLE (MAINLY OVER THE NRN COUNTIES) BY
THURS AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. NOT EXPECTING FROPA
FOR MOST (IF ANY) OF OUR CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT. THIS COULD GIVE US A FEW
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S.. A VERY BROAD/DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENT-
RAL PLAINS SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THRU
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH A POSSIBLE STRONG-FOR-THIS
-TIME-OF-YEAR COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE MON/TUES. SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT STARTING LATE SAT WITH
STRONG WAA SETTING UP. BEST POPS SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN COOL/DRY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE
STILL TALKING FCSTS FOR DAYS 7/8 AND BEYOND. 41

MARINE...
YET AGAIN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND
FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED NIGHT BUT WILL BE BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY OTHER MARINE HAZARDS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  79  68  79  68 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 222039
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK (BUT BRIEF)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE WX FOR SE TX GENERALLY DRY/QUIET THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS. BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN POSSIBLE (MAINLY OVER THE NRN COUNTIES) BY
THURS AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. NOT EXPECTING FROPA
FOR MOST (IF ANY) OF OUR CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT. THIS COULD GIVE US A FEW
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S.. A VERY BROAD/DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENT-
RAL PLAINS SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THRU
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH A POSSIBLE STRONG-FOR-THIS
-TIME-OF-YEAR COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE MON/TUES. SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT STARTING LATE SAT WITH
STRONG WAA SETTING UP. BEST POPS SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN COOL/DRY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE
STILL TALKING FCSTS FOR DAYS 7/8 AND BEYOND. 41

&&

.MARINE...
YET AGAIN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND
FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED NIGHT BUT WILL BE BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY OTHER MARINE HAZARDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  79  68  79  68 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221735
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VIS SATELLITE AND 17Z SFC OBS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING FROM
ALONG A KAUS/KIAH/KBPT LINE. FRONT MAY PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS KSGR/KHOU BUT DOUBT IT MOVES MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT. DO
NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGER SHOWS
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WITH TROUGHA AXIS PASSING THE AREA TO
THE EAST. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THINK ALL
THE TAF SITES MENTION AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING
FOR FOG/STRATUS. SE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TOMORROW AND MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LIFT IN THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF -RA ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. PER OBS AT PRE-
SENT...THIS FRONT IS A BIT HARD TO DEFINE BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NE. OTHERWISE NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST AS IT DOES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AREAS OF PRE-DAWN FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...
LOCALLY DENSE...AS WINDS HAVE LAID DOWN OVER MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE DAY...HANGING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE CITY AND THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS...WITHIN AN MOISTENING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...TO INITIATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A RESIDENT MID TO
UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR MASS...WITH LOW 80 F CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RECEIVING A BRIEF
AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR OF HEARING A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO.

5H LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES...WILL BE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE STATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMS EARTH DAY. MILD
AND MORE HUMID MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID 60S WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS (NEAR) STATIONARY SHALLOW
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND...WITH DAILY CLOUD COVER BREAKS WORKING IN TANDEM
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVELS/INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST.

THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH
IN CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK SO...AS EARLY MORNING WINDS DIE
OUT...FOG WILL BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. MODELING HAS A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...REGIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE TARGET DAYS. 85H
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 20 DEG C THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE
80S. THE PERIOD ENDS UNDER MORE OVERCAST WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND
SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...OVER EASTERN TEXAS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  67  79  68  79 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221635
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF -RA ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. PER OBS AT PRE-
SENT...THIS FRONT IS A BIT HARD TO DEFINE BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NE. OTHERWISE NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST AS IT DOES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. 41


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AREAS OF PRE-DAWN FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...
LOCALLY DENSE...AS WINDS HAVE LAID DOWN OVER MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE DAY...HANGING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE CITY AND THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS...WITHIN AN MOISTENING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...TO INITIATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A RESIDENT MID TO
UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR MASS...WITH LOW 80 F CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RECEIVING A BRIEF
AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR OF HEARING A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO.

5H LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES...WILL BE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE STATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMS EARTH DAY. MILD
AND MORE HUMID MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID 60S WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS (NEAR) STATIONARY SHALLOW
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND...WITH DAILY CLOUD COVER BREAKS WORKING IN TANDEM
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVELS/INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST.

THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH
IN CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK SO...AS EARLY MORNING WINDS DIE
OUT...FOG WILL BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. MODELING HAS A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...REGIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE TARGET DAYS. 85H
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 20 DEG C THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE
80S. THE PERIOD ENDS UNDER MORE OVERCAST WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND
SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...OVER EASTERN TEXAS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  67  79  68  79 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220953
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF PRE-DAWN FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...
LOCALLY DENSE...AS WINDS HAVE LAID DOWN OVER MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE DAY...HANGING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
CITY AND THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS...WITHIN AN MOISTENING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...TO
INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A
RESIDENT MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR MASS...WITH LOW 80 F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RECEIVING
A BRIEF AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR OF HEARING A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO.

5H LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES...WILL BE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE STATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMS EARTH DAY. MILD
AND MORE HUMID MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID 60S WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS (NEAR) STATIONARY SHALLOW
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND...WITH DAILY CLOUD COVER BREAKS WORKING IN TANDEM
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVELS/INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST.

THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH
IN CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK SO...AS EARLY MORNING WINDS DIE
OUT...FOG WILL BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. MODELING HAS A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...REGIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE TARGET DAYS. 85H
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 20 DEG C THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE
80S. THE PERIOD ENDS UNDER MORE OVERCAST WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND
SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...OVER EASTERN TEXAS. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY FEW CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO ONGOING TAFS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE.
PATCHY MVFR FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. ALSO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS W/ SOME HEATING. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGHT DRIFT INTO AREAS BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA. MEAGER AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN
THRU LATE EVNG HOURS. PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD
SUNRISE WED. 47

&&

.MARINE...
PARTS OF THE BAYS MIGHT SEE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS IN ASSOCIATION W/ WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE BRIEF IT DOES OCCUR WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING LATER IN THE DAY. GENERAL LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THIS WEEKEND SO WOULD EXPECT CORRESPONDING RISE IN
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS (POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CRITERIA AT TIMES). 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  67  79  68  79 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220441
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO JUNCTION AND
SHRA/TSRA CONT TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. HRRR/RAP
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHRAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EXTREME NE
PART OF SE TX. MAINTAINED VCSH FOR KUTS THROUGH 09Z BUT REMOVED
RAIN CHANCES FOR KCLL. WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE AND A
NARROW T/TD SPREAD...FEEL THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
OVERNIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP VSBYS FROM CRATERING.
ON TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY SINKS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
BOUNDARY BY AFTN AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN JUST A BIT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN. FCST SOUNDINGS
AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR
KLBX AND KHOU FOR TOMORROW AFTN. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WITH A SECONDARY
AREA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. 18Z TEXAS TECH WRF HAS
HANDLED THIS EVENINGS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL AND IS SUPPORTED WITH
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE EAST TEXAS CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD AND CLIPPING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS ALL BUT
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE MIN TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS
THE METRO AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  84  62  85  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  84  62  85  65 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  65  79  67 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220220
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WITH A SECONDARY
AREA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. 18Z TEXAS TECH WRF HAS
HANDLED THIS EVENINGS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL AND IS SUPPORTED WITH
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE EAST TEXAS CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD AND CLIPPING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS ALL BUT
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE MIN TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS
THE METRO AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  84  62  85  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  84  62  85  65 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  65  79  67 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 212328
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHRA FOR KCLL AND KUTS
BASED ON THE LATEST RAP 13. FURTHER SOUTH...AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. KHGX VWP STILL
SHOWS SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG WILL BECOME. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST DURING THE MORNING AND NW-N DURING THE AFTN. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX THIS
AFTN SO WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE IN THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING. NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE FCST HOWEVER AS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OVER OUR NRN ZONES INITIALLY (IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY). POPS
SHOULD WORK DOWN TO THE COAST TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOW-
LY SAGS INTO THE REGION. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD/STRONG SHRA/
TSRAS WITH THIS FROPA GIVEN THE STILL SOMEWHAT DRY/CAPPED AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE DRIER THIS INCOMING AIRMASS SHOULD WARM UP
RATHER EFFICIENTLY TOMORROW/TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WX SYSTEM) TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN/STRENGTHEN. SO...MOSTLY DRY/SEASONAL
TEMPS/SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FCST FOR THIS WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN LATE FRI AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK ON THE
IDEA OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE GENERALLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THESE LOW POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE UP-
COMING WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS APPEARS TO BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POSSIBLE STRONG(ISH) LATE SEASON COLD FRONT NEXT TUES. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM THUS FAR WITH THIS FCST. 41

MARINE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW BUT BUILD TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN A LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  84  62  85  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  84  62  85  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  65  79  67 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 212029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX THIS
AFTN SO WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE IN THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING. NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE FCST HOWEVER AS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OVER OUR NRN ZONES INITIALLY (IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY). POPS
SHOULD WORK DOWN TO THE COAST TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOW-
LY SAGS INTO THE REGION. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD/STRONG SHRA/
TSRAS WITH THIS FROPA GIVEN THE STILL SOMEWHAT DRY/CAPPED AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE DRIER THIS INCOMING AIRMASS SHOULD WARM UP
RATHER EFFICIENTLY TOMORROW/TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WX SYSTEM) TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN/STRENGTHEN. SO...MOSTLY DRY/SEASONAL
TEMPS/SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FCST FOR THIS WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN LATE FRI AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK ON THE
IDEA OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE GENERALLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THESE LOW POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE UP-
COMING WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS APPEARS TO BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POSSIBLE STRONG(ISH) LATE SEASON COLD FRONT NEXT TUES. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM THUS FAR WITH THIS FCST. 41

&&

.MARINE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW BUT BUILD TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN A LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH. 39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  84  62  85  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  84  62  85  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  65  79  67 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211733
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1233 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY BRK/OVC VFR DECKS WITH BKN MVFR DECKS
UNDERNEATH PER SFC OBS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO RISE SOME THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO SHOULD HAVE MAINLY VFR CIGS. QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE
IF MVFR CIGS RETURN OR IF FOG DEVELOPS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH BUT PROBABILITIES OF THAT ARE LOOKING LOW
GIVEN CAPPING ON AREA SOUNDINGS. FOR NOW THINK THERE MAY BE A
COMBINATION OF THE 2 WITH FOG IN SOME AREAS AND JUST LOW CIGS IN
OTHERS. THINK FOG MORE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SKIES
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. STILL TIME FOR 00Z AND 06Z UPDATES TO CAPTURE
THESE TRENDS.

23/39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPDATE. WHILE THE PCPN APPROACHING
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA HAS MIXED OUT...DAYTIME HEATING/LINGERING
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE SOME ISO ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTN. TO THE
NORTH...STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FRONT. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME
SPOTTY FOG AREAS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MIGHT END UP NEEDING DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES. AFTER FOG AREAS LIFT AND BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA TO END UP PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALL EYES WILL TURN TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. STILL THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM (SEE SPC`S
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION) WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING
OUR AREA. WILL STICK WITH 20-30% POPS WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS
COMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA WHEN
WEAKENING STORMS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTER OUR AREA.
KEEPING LOW POPS (20%) IN TUESDAY`S FORECAST WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AND
HAVE STUCK WITH LOW POPS (20% AGAIN) FOR THE AREA BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG LATE APRIL COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  63  84  62  85 /  20  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  64  84  63  85 /  20  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  67  77  66  79 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211641
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPDATE. WHILE THE PCPN APPROACHING
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA HAS MIXED OUT...DAYTIME HEATING/LINGERING
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE SOME ISO ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTN. TO THE
NORTH...STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FRONT. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME
SPOTTY FOG AREAS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MIGHT END UP NEEDING DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES. AFTER FOG AREAS LIFT AND BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA TO END UP PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALL EYES WILL TURN TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. STILL THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM (SEE SPC`S
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION) WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING
OUR AREA. WILL STICK WITH 20-30% POPS WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS
COMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA WHEN
WEAKENING STORMS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTER OUR AREA.
KEEPING LOW POPS (20%) IN TUESDAY`S FORECAST WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AND
HAVE STUCK WITH LOW POPS (20% AGAIN) FOR THE AREA BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG LATE APRIL COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  63  84  62  85 /  20  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  64  84  63  85 /  20  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  67  77  66  79 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211149
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
649 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONGER JUST-OFF-THE-SURFACE WINDS MAY BE THE REASON MANY SITES
ARE NOT FALLING TO BELOW A MILE VISIBILITY WITHIN MORE DENSE FOG.
TERMINALS SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY ARE EXPERIENCING MVFR FOG...MAY
TEMP DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. PRIMARILY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WEAK 160-200 DEGREE WIND. AN APPROACHING
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN WINDS AND INCREASE THE
PROB OF NORTHERN HUB SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODEST CHANCES FOR RETURNING TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR AHEAD OF THIS
NEARING BOUNDARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS 06Z PACKAGE. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTTY FOG
AREAS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WILL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MIGHT END UP NEEDING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. AFTER FOG AREAS
LIFT AND BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA TO END UP PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S AT THE COAST. DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALL EYES WILL
TURN TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. STILL THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM (SEE SPC`S
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION) WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING OUR
AREA. WILL STICK WITH 20-30% POPS WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS COMING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA WHEN WEAKENING STORMS AND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTER OUR AREA. KEEPING LOW POPS (20%) IN
TUESDAY`S FORECAST WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AND HAVE STUCK WITH LOW POPS
(20% AGAIN) FOR THE AREA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONG LATE APRIL COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. 42 &&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN THIS ONGOING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER LOW SEAS THROUGH MID-WEEK. ON TUESDAY
AN APPROACHING WEAK BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...VEERING LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO LATE WEEK
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONSHORE
WINDS. OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SCEC LEVELS LATE WED/EARLY
THU...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  63  84  62  85 /  20  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  64  84  63  85 /  20  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  67  77  66  79 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210904
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTTY FOG
AREAS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WILL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MIGHT END UP NEEDING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. AFTER FOG AREAS
LIFT AND BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA TO END UP PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S AT THE COAST. DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALL EYES WILL
TURN TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. STILL THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM (SEE SPC`S
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION) WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING OUR
AREA. WILL STICK WITH 20-30% POPS WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS COMING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA WHEN WEAKENING STORMS AND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTER OUR AREA. KEEPING LOW POPS (20%) IN
TUESDAY`S FORECAST WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AND HAVE STUCK WITH LOW POPS
(20% AGAIN) FOR THE AREA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONG LATE APRIL COLD FRONT NEXT MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. 42 &&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN THIS ONGOING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER LOW SEAS THROUGH MID-WEEK. ON TUESDAY
AN APPROACHING WEAK BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...VEERING LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO LATE WEEK
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONSHORE
WINDS. OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SCEC LEVELS LATE WED/EARLY
THU...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  63  84  62  85 /  20  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  64  84  63  85 /  20  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  67  77  66  79 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ERODING AS THEY APPROACH
SE TX. GFS AND NAM CONT TO DIFFER WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE PROFILE
AND CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT GFS SEEMED TO INITIALIZE A BIT BETTER
SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS JUST
OFF THE SFC ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT
FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA STATE
LINE. SOME CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT ARE
HAVING TROUBLE FILLING IN. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
FILL IN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ONLY TO GO SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AND GIVEN A SLIGHTLY WARMER START FOR TOMORROW MORNING THINK
MONDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY WAS. FOG
POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
APPROACHING 30KTS ON THE VWP. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN VERY MOIST AIRMASS CAN`T RULE IT OUT. NEW
ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MUCH BY WAY OF PCPN FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO FAR
THIS AFTN...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL NNW OF
THE AREA. AS PER THE GOING TRENDS WITH THE MOTION OF THIS PCPN AND
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POPS SHOULD STAY
OVER THE NRN PARTS OF SE TX TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE
OUT WAA TYPE SHRA OVER THE SRN HALF AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TIGHTENS
UP. AS SUCH THE BLANKET 20% POPS LOOK GOOD. THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES
TO LINGER MON INTO TUES MORNING GIVEN THE PROGS OF A VERY SLOW SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS TO BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUES
AND WEDS. BUT MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN APPEAR TO BE
OUR NEXT "BEST" CHANCES FOR PCPN STARTING FRI (AND MAYBE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEEKEND). OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPS/INCREASING HUMIDITY FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STRONG (FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) COLD FRONT NEXT TUE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THIS HOLDS UP. 41

MARINE...
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND MAY TURN WINDS TO THE SW ON
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BUILD SEAS TO MODERATE LEVELS. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  81  63  84  61 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  81  64  84  62 /  10  10  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  75  67  77  65 /  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210334
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1034 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA STATE
LINE. SOME CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT ARE
HAVING TROUBLE FILLING IN. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
FILL IN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ONLY TO GO SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AND GIVEN A SLIGHTLY WARMER START FOR TOMORROW MORNING THINK
MONDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY WAS. FOG
POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
APPROACHING 30KTS ON THE VWP. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN VERY MOIST AIRMASS CAN`T RULE IT OUT. NEW
ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR A DEEPER CHANNEL
OF MOISTURE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO INCREASING. WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND LESS CONFIDENT
WITH FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THAT SAID...T/TD SPREAD LOOKS SMALL
AGAIN TONIGHT SO THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR
TYPE FOG TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z MONDAY. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MUCH BY WAY OF PCPN FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO FAR
THIS AFTN...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL NNW OF
THE AREA. AS PER THE GOING TRENDS WITH THE MOTION OF THIS PCPN AND
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POPS SHOULD STAY
OVER THE NRN PARTS OF SE TX TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE
OUT WAA TYPE SHRA OVER THE SRN HALF AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TIGHTENS
UP. AS SUCH THE BLANKET 20% POPS LOOK GOOD. THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES
TO LINGER MON INTO TUES MORNING GIVEN THE PROGS OF A VERY SLOW SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS TO BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUES
AND WEDS. BUT MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN APPEAR TO BE
OUR NEXT "BEST" CHANCES FOR PCPN STARTING FRI (AND MAYBE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEEKEND). OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPS/INCREASING HUMIDITY FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STRONG (FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) COLD FRONT NEXT TUE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THIS HOLDS UP. 41

MARINE...
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND MAY TURN WINDS TO THE SW ON
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BUILD SEAS TO MODERATE LEVELS. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  81  63  84  61 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  81  64  84  62 /  20  10  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  75  67  77  65 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 202333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR A DEEPER CHANNEL
OF MOISTURE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO INCREASING. WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND LESS CONFIDENT
WITH FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THAT SAID...T/TD SPREAD LOOKS SMALL
AGAIN TONIGHT SO THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR
TYPE FOG TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z MONDAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MUCH BY WAY OF PCPN FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO FAR
THIS AFTN...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL NNW OF
THE AREA. AS PER THE GOING TRENDS WITH THE MOTION OF THIS PCPN AND
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POPS SHOULD STAY
OVER THE NRN PARTS OF SE TX TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE
OUT WAA TYPE SHRA OVER THE SRN HALF AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TIGHTENS
UP. AS SUCH THE BLANKET 20% POPS LOOK GOOD. THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES
TO LINGER MON INTO TUES MORNING GIVEN THE PROGS OF A VERY SLOW SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS TO BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUES
AND WEDS. BUT MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN APPEAR TO BE
OUR NEXT "BEST" CHANCES FOR PCPN STARTING FRI (AND MAYBE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEEKEND). OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPS/INCREASING HUMIDITY FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STRONG (FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) COLD FRONT NEXT TUE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THIS HOLDS UP. 41

MARINE...
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND MAY TURN WINDS TO THE SW ON
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BUILD SEAS TO MODERATE LEVELS. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  81  63  84  61 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  81  64  84  62 /  20  20  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  67  77  65 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43





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