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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010451
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW AS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ENVELOPES THE AREA TAF SITES.
MAINLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AT AROUND 5 TO 9 KNOTS. SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...COULD
SEE MORE OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT AND ON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN NOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OUT
AS INDICTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM
LCH AND CRP SHOW THE CONTRAST WITH PWAT OF 1.18 IN AT LCH AND
2.27 IN AT CRP! THIS DRIER AIR MASS IN THE MEAN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL GULF WATERS AND NEAR
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL HIGH...AND SW ZONES
WHERE PRECIPTABLE WATERS HIGHER...BUT EVEN THERE NO MORE THAN A 20
POP OF A SHOWER IS CALLED FOR EVEN THERE. ELSEHWERE...POPS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 PCT RANGE.

FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKING FOR CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP NEAR THE CENTURY MARK AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY...WITH DEWPOINTS AWAY FROM THE WATER MAINLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S VERSUS THE 70S THAT WEVE HAD. DR

46

CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR JULY 2015...

HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL (IAH) RECORDED THEIR 7TH WARMEST JULY ON
RECORD (86.1 DEGREES) AND THEIR 4TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.61
INCHES).

HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU) RECORDED THEIR 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD
(86.0 DEGREES).

GALVESTON (GLS) RECORDED THEIR 3RD WARMEST JULY ON RECORD (86.6
DEGREES) AND THEIR 7TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.23 INCHES).

42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 010451
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW AS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ENVELOPES THE AREA TAF SITES.
MAINLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AT AROUND 5 TO 9 KNOTS. SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...COULD
SEE MORE OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT AND ON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN NOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OUT
AS INDICTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM
LCH AND CRP SHOW THE CONTRAST WITH PWAT OF 1.18 IN AT LCH AND
2.27 IN AT CRP! THIS DRIER AIR MASS IN THE MEAN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL GULF WATERS AND NEAR
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL HIGH...AND SW ZONES
WHERE PRECIPTABLE WATERS HIGHER...BUT EVEN THERE NO MORE THAN A 20
POP OF A SHOWER IS CALLED FOR EVEN THERE. ELSEHWERE...POPS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 PCT RANGE.

FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKING FOR CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP NEAR THE CENTURY MARK AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY...WITH DEWPOINTS AWAY FROM THE WATER MAINLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S VERSUS THE 70S THAT WEVE HAD. DR

46

CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR JULY 2015...

HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL (IAH) RECORDED THEIR 7TH WARMEST JULY ON
RECORD (86.1 DEGREES) AND THEIR 4TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.61
INCHES).

HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU) RECORDED THEIR 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD
(86.0 DEGREES).

GALVESTON (GLS) RECORDED THEIR 3RD WARMEST JULY ON RECORD (86.6
DEGREES) AND THEIR 7TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.23 INCHES).

42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 010213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
913 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN NOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OUT
AS INDICTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM
LCH AND CRP SHOW THE CONTRAST WITH PWAT OF 1.18 IN AT LCH AND
2.27 IN AT CRP! THIS DRIER AIR MASS IN THE MEAN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL GULF WATERS AND NEAR
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL HIGH...AND SW ZONES
WHERE PRECIPTABLE WATERS HIGHER...BUT EVEN THERE NO MORE THAN A 20
POP OF A SHOWER IS CALLED FOR EVEN THERE. ELSEHWERE...POPS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 PCT RANGE.

FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKING FOR CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP NEAR THE CENTURY MARK AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY...WITH DEWPOINTS AWAY FROM THE WATER MAINLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S VERSUS THE 70S THAT WEVE HAD. DR

46

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR JULY 2015
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL (IAH) RECORDED THEIR 7TH WARMEST JULY ON
RECORD (86.1 DEGREES) AND THEIR 4TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.61
INCHES).

HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU) RECORDED THEIR 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD
(86.0 DEGREES).

GALVESTON (GLS) RECORDED THEIR 3RD WARMEST JULY ON RECORD (86.6
DEGREES) AND THEIR 7TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.23 INCHES).

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLS WHERE
SMOKE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR HIGH ISLAND. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING TO UNDER
5 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER SPEEDS AT GLS. COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
913 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN NOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OUT
AS INDICTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM
LCH AND CRP SHOW THE CONTRAST WITH PWAT OF 1.18 IN AT LCH AND
2.27 IN AT CRP! THIS DRIER AIR MASS IN THE MEAN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL GULF WATERS AND NEAR
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL HIGH...AND SW ZONES
WHERE PRECIPTABLE WATERS HIGHER...BUT EVEN THERE NO MORE THAN A 20
POP OF A SHOWER IS CALLED FOR EVEN THERE. ELSEHWERE...POPS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 PCT RANGE.

FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKING FOR CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP NEAR THE CENTURY MARK AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY...WITH DEWPOINTS AWAY FROM THE WATER MAINLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S VERSUS THE 70S THAT WEVE HAD. DR

46

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR JULY 2015
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL (IAH) RECORDED THEIR 7TH WARMEST JULY ON
RECORD (86.1 DEGREES) AND THEIR 4TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.61
INCHES).

HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU) RECORDED THEIR 5TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD
(86.0 DEGREES).

GALVESTON (GLS) RECORDED THEIR 3RD WARMEST JULY ON RECORD (86.6
DEGREES) AND THEIR 7TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (0.23 INCHES).

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLS WHERE
SMOKE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR HIGH ISLAND. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING TO UNDER
5 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER SPEEDS AT GLS. COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 312327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLS WHERE
SMOKE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR HIGH ISLAND. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING TO UNDER
5 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER SPEEDS AT GLS. COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLS WHERE
SMOKE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR HIGH ISLAND. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING TO UNDER
5 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER SPEEDS AT GLS. COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLS WHERE
SMOKE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR HIGH ISLAND. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING TO UNDER
5 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER SPEEDS AT GLS. COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 312035
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 312035
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 3 PM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO NEAR ANGLETON. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WILL ALSO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND LOWER THE DAILY HEAT INDICES...ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSIDE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH AROUND 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE MEX IS CONTINUING THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW LEVELS...
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR 100 DEGREE DAYS. ALSO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

40

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
MODERATE NE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  99  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  99  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  97  81  96  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 311550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ONE NOTE...AFTER CHECKING THROUGH THE TEMPERATURES DECIDED TO UP
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY A BIT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAV
GUIDANCE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY
AID IN A BIT HIGHER NUMBERS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH METRO HOUSTON AND INTO THE CLL AREA. ANOTHER
TROUGH WAS OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE ENDEAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHILE SCATTERED LARGER SHOWERS WERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF EAST OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH.

THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE
OUTLOOK TODAY. LIKED THE HRRR WHICH HAS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLL TO HOUSTON TO GALVESTON
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH MORE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE HEAT INDEX. VALUES ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE COAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
AN IMPACT OVER CHAMBERS AND MAYBE GALVESTON COUNTY. SINCE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY UP
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP COUNTIES LATER
TODAY IF NEEDED.

TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS DRAPED
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS...
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS OF 3 AM
CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED ON
THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY
FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)             100  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 311550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ONE NOTE...AFTER CHECKING THROUGH THE TEMPERATURES DECIDED TO UP
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY A BIT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAV
GUIDANCE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY
AID IN A BIT HIGHER NUMBERS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH METRO HOUSTON AND INTO THE CLL AREA. ANOTHER
TROUGH WAS OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE ENDEAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHILE SCATTERED LARGER SHOWERS WERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF EAST OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH.

THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE
OUTLOOK TODAY. LIKED THE HRRR WHICH HAS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLL TO HOUSTON TO GALVESTON
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH MORE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE HEAT INDEX. VALUES ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE COAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
AN IMPACT OVER CHAMBERS AND MAYBE GALVESTON COUNTY. SINCE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY UP
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP COUNTIES LATER
TODAY IF NEEDED.

TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS DRAPED
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS...
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS OF 3 AM
CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED ON
THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY
FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)             100  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 311550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ONE NOTE...AFTER CHECKING THROUGH THE TEMPERATURES DECIDED TO UP
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY A BIT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAV
GUIDANCE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY
AID IN A BIT HIGHER NUMBERS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH METRO HOUSTON AND INTO THE CLL AREA. ANOTHER
TROUGH WAS OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE ENDEAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHILE SCATTERED LARGER SHOWERS WERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF EAST OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH.

THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE
OUTLOOK TODAY. LIKED THE HRRR WHICH HAS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLL TO HOUSTON TO GALVESTON
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH MORE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE HEAT INDEX. VALUES ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE COAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
AN IMPACT OVER CHAMBERS AND MAYBE GALVESTON COUNTY. SINCE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY UP
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP COUNTIES LATER
TODAY IF NEEDED.

TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS DRAPED
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS...
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS OF 3 AM
CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED ON
THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY
FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)             100  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 311550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ONE NOTE...AFTER CHECKING THROUGH THE TEMPERATURES DECIDED TO UP
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY A BIT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAV
GUIDANCE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY
AID IN A BIT HIGHER NUMBERS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH METRO HOUSTON AND INTO THE CLL AREA. ANOTHER
TROUGH WAS OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE ENDEAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHILE SCATTERED LARGER SHOWERS WERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF EAST OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH.

THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE
OUTLOOK TODAY. LIKED THE HRRR WHICH HAS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLL TO HOUSTON TO GALVESTON
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH MORE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE HEAT INDEX. VALUES ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE COAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
AN IMPACT OVER CHAMBERS AND MAYBE GALVESTON COUNTY. SINCE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY UP
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP COUNTIES LATER
TODAY IF NEEDED.

TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS DRAPED
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS...
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS OF 3 AM
CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED ON
THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY
FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)             100  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 311536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH METRO HOUSTON AND INTO THE CLL AREA. ANOTHER
TROUGH WAS OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE ENDEAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHILE SCATTERED LARGER SHOWERS WERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF EAST OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH.

THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE
OUTLOOK TODAY. LIKED THE HRRR WHICH HAS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLL TO HOUSTON TO GALVESTON
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH MORE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE HEAT INDEX. VALUES ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE COAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
AN IMPACT OVER CHAMBERS AND MAYBE GALVESTON COUNTY. SINCE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY UP
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP COUNTIES LATER
TODAY IF NEEDED.

TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS DRAPED
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS...
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS OF 3 AM
CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED ON
THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY
FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 311536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH METRO HOUSTON AND INTO THE CLL AREA. ANOTHER
TROUGH WAS OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE ENDEAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHILE SCATTERED LARGER SHOWERS WERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF EAST OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH.

THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE
OUTLOOK TODAY. LIKED THE HRRR WHICH HAS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CLL TO HOUSTON TO GALVESTON
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH MORE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE HEAT INDEX. VALUES ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE COAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
AN IMPACT OVER CHAMBERS AND MAYBE GALVESTON COUNTY. SINCE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY UP
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP COUNTIES LATER
TODAY IF NEEDED.

TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS DRAPED
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS...
WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS OF 3 AM
CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED ON
THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY
FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 310914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
DRAPED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S
STORMS... WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AS OF 3 AM CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO
ANALYZED ON THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER
EVOLVES TODAY FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WELL AS CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
DRAPED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S
STORMS... WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AS OF 3 AM CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO
ANALYZED ON THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER
EVOLVES TODAY FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WELL AS CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 310914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWED A PLUME OF 75+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
DRAPED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. THIS... COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/S
STORMS... WAS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AS OF 3 AM CDT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALSO
ANALYZED ON THIS MAP STRETCHING NORTH TEXAS AND ON INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE WEATHER
EVOLVES TODAY FOR THE REGION... BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WELL AS CONCERNS ABOUT HEAT.

THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.26 INCHES... WITH OVERNIGHT GPS-MET MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWING A SIMILARLY MOIST AIRMASS /2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST/. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY... BUT AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SWEEPS
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST BY
18Z. COMPARISON OF SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS HOWEVER /WHICH REPRESENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT/ REVEAL STABILIZATION FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO 00Z... WITH RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH HIGHER RESOLUTION AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ON
THIS SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS... HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY... A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND DCAPE VALUES 1100-1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO MEANS THAT STIFLING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA... BRAZORIA...
GALVESTON... AND CHAMBERS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREAS REACHED 109
TO 111 DEGREES YESTERDAY. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH NAEFS ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTING
ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST /A RETURN INTERVAL
OF APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS/... WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH IMPACTS. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER... DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION... WITH
LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIFFER MUCH FROM TODAY ON SATURDAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SHIFTING A BIT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...

STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE WATERS BUT MORE COULD COMING LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FORMING. EVENTUALLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SAGS OUT INTO THE
GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. 850MB FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL WELL OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PROBABLY JUST SE OF THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMAINS
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH AND SHEAR RELAXES. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FOR NOW BUT MAY GET A FEW SPOTS WITH MIFG AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY
THE MORE RURAL SITES CXO NORTHWARD. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
DRY AIR SHOULD INTRUDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT A FEW
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT. L/V WINDS WILL BE
THE NORTH UNTIL THE DIFFUSE FROPA. AM THINKING THAT CLL-HOU-SGR-LBX
MAY SEE SOME THUNDER CLOSE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY ADD
THIS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE IF NOT SOONER. IAH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHERE POOLED MOISTURE AND SAGGING BOUNDARY INTERACT SO FOR
NOW WILL PROBABLY LEAVE VCTS OUT BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. DEEP MIXING
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE PROFILE SO STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW
MOVING. DRYING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
IAH/HOU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  73  98  74  99 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  74  98  75  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            95  80  94  81  92 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310434
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION LASTED A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TIME OVERNIGHT AS PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2.00 INCHES. NAM12
AND THE GFS DIFFER WITH PW VALUES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE. THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH MORNING PRECIP AND IS NOW WAITING ON HEATING TO TRIGGER
SHRA/TSRA. WILL LEAN TOWARD A RAP/HRRR/GFS BLEND WHICH FOCUSES
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ON FRI OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR KLBX...KSGR...KHOU AND KGLS. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE
TO SW TOWARD EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL DRIFTING DOWN INTO NE ZONES AT
THIS HOUR. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE...RADAR SHOWING OUTFLOW FROM
LOUISIANA CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS OUTFLOW TO
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHORTLY TO GALVESTON BAY
AND EASTERN COASTAL GULF WATERS. WIND GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA...LIKELY 30 KNOTS OR SO FOR SOME
AREAS NOW. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO GIVE A HEADS
UP FOR THIS FEATURE AND ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AS WELL.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYWHERE GIVEN THE AIRMASS CATEGORIZED BY
DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SQUALL LINE
BRUSH AT LEAST OUTER WATERS...BUT OUTFLOW WILL MOVE FROM NE TO SW
ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR COASTAL WATERS TO COVER THIS. HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 310434
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION LASTED A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TIME OVERNIGHT AS PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2.00 INCHES. NAM12
AND THE GFS DIFFER WITH PW VALUES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE. THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH MORNING PRECIP AND IS NOW WAITING ON HEATING TO TRIGGER
SHRA/TSRA. WILL LEAN TOWARD A RAP/HRRR/GFS BLEND WHICH FOCUSES
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ON FRI OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR KLBX...KSGR...KHOU AND KGLS. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE
TO SW TOWARD EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL DRIFTING DOWN INTO NE ZONES AT
THIS HOUR. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE...RADAR SHOWING OUTFLOW FROM
LOUISIANA CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS OUTFLOW TO
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHORTLY TO GALVESTON BAY
AND EASTERN COASTAL GULF WATERS. WIND GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA...LIKELY 30 KNOTS OR SO FOR SOME
AREAS NOW. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO GIVE A HEADS
UP FOR THIS FEATURE AND ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AS WELL.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYWHERE GIVEN THE AIRMASS CATEGORIZED BY
DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SQUALL LINE
BRUSH AT LEAST OUTER WATERS...BUT OUTFLOW WILL MOVE FROM NE TO SW
ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR COASTAL WATERS TO COVER THIS. HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310434
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION LASTED A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TIME OVERNIGHT AS PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2.00 INCHES. NAM12
AND THE GFS DIFFER WITH PW VALUES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE. THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH MORNING PRECIP AND IS NOW WAITING ON HEATING TO TRIGGER
SHRA/TSRA. WILL LEAN TOWARD A RAP/HRRR/GFS BLEND WHICH FOCUSES
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ON FRI OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR KLBX...KSGR...KHOU AND KGLS. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE
TO SW TOWARD EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL DRIFTING DOWN INTO NE ZONES AT
THIS HOUR. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE...RADAR SHOWING OUTFLOW FROM
LOUISIANA CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS OUTFLOW TO
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHORTLY TO GALVESTON BAY
AND EASTERN COASTAL GULF WATERS. WIND GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA...LIKELY 30 KNOTS OR SO FOR SOME
AREAS NOW. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO GIVE A HEADS
UP FOR THIS FEATURE AND ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AS WELL.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYWHERE GIVEN THE AIRMASS CATEGORIZED BY
DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SQUALL LINE
BRUSH AT LEAST OUTER WATERS...BUT OUTFLOW WILL MOVE FROM NE TO SW
ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR COASTAL WATERS TO COVER THIS. HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 310434
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION LASTED A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TIME OVERNIGHT AS PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2.00 INCHES. NAM12
AND THE GFS DIFFER WITH PW VALUES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE. THE RAP HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH MORNING PRECIP AND IS NOW WAITING ON HEATING TO TRIGGER
SHRA/TSRA. WILL LEAN TOWARD A RAP/HRRR/GFS BLEND WHICH FOCUSES
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ON FRI OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR KLBX...KSGR...KHOU AND KGLS. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE
TO SW TOWARD EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL DRIFTING DOWN INTO NE ZONES AT
THIS HOUR. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE...RADAR SHOWING OUTFLOW FROM
LOUISIANA CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS OUTFLOW TO
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHORTLY TO GALVESTON BAY
AND EASTERN COASTAL GULF WATERS. WIND GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA...LIKELY 30 KNOTS OR SO FOR SOME
AREAS NOW. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO GIVE A HEADS
UP FOR THIS FEATURE AND ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AS WELL.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYWHERE GIVEN THE AIRMASS CATEGORIZED BY
DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SQUALL LINE
BRUSH AT LEAST OUTER WATERS...BUT OUTFLOW WILL MOVE FROM NE TO SW
ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR COASTAL WATERS TO COVER THIS. HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310212
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL DRIFTING DOWN INTO NE ZONES AT
THIS HOUR. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE...RADAR SHOWING OUTFLOW FROM
LOUISIANA CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS OUTFLOW TO
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHORTLY TO GALVESTON BAY
AND EASTERN COASTAL GULF WATERS. WIND GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA...LIKELY 30 KNOTS OR SO FOR SOME
AREAS NOW. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO GIVE A HEADS
UP FOR THIS FEATURE AND ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AS WELL.

OVENRIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYWHERE GIVEN THE AIRMASS CATEGORIZED BY
DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SQUALL LINE
BRUSH AT LEAST OUTER WATERS...BUT OUTFLOW WILL MOVE FROM NE TO SW
ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR COASTAL WATERS TO COVER THIS. HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING KCXO/KIAH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THESE TAF
SITS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. COULD GET SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS. FELT THE RAP HAS VERIFIED BEST FROM YESTERDAY
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RAP/GFS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FEEL
SHRA/TSRA WILL END BETWEEN 02-03Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
THEREAFTER. THE RAP BEGINS TO BRINGS THINGS BACK UP AROUND 12Z SO
WILL RESTART VCSH BETWEEN 11-13Z AREAWIDE. DRY AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE ON FRIDAY AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE TO
SW DURING THE AFTN. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302323
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
623 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING KCXO/KIAH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THESE TAF
SITS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. COULD GET SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS. FELT THE RAP HAS VERIFIED BEST FROM YESTERDAY
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RAP/GFS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FEEL
SHRA/TSRA WILL END BETWEEN 02-03Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
THEREAFTER. THE RAP BEGINS TO BRINGS THINGS BACK UP AROUND 12Z SO
WILL RESTART VCSH BETWEEN 11-13Z AREAWIDE. DRY AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE ON FRIDAY AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE TO
SW DURING THE AFTN. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  40  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302323
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
623 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING KCXO/KIAH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THESE TAF
SITS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. COULD GET SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS. FELT THE RAP HAS VERIFIED BEST FROM YESTERDAY
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RAP/GFS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FEEL
SHRA/TSRA WILL END BETWEEN 02-03Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
THEREAFTER. THE RAP BEGINS TO BRINGS THINGS BACK UP AROUND 12Z SO
WILL RESTART VCSH BETWEEN 11-13Z AREAWIDE. DRY AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE ON FRIDAY AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE TO
SW DURING THE AFTN. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  40  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302323
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
623 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING KCXO/KIAH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THESE TAF
SITS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. COULD GET SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS. FELT THE RAP HAS VERIFIED BEST FROM YESTERDAY
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RAP/GFS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FEEL
SHRA/TSRA WILL END BETWEEN 02-03Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
THEREAFTER. THE RAP BEGINS TO BRINGS THINGS BACK UP AROUND 12Z SO
WILL RESTART VCSH BETWEEN 11-13Z AREAWIDE. DRY AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE ON FRIDAY AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE TO
SW DURING THE AFTN. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  40  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 302323
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
623 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING KCXO/KIAH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THESE TAF
SITS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. COULD GET SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS. FELT THE RAP HAS VERIFIED BEST FROM YESTERDAY
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RAP/GFS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FEEL
SHRA/TSRA WILL END BETWEEN 02-03Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
THEREAFTER. THE RAP BEGINS TO BRINGS THINGS BACK UP AROUND 12Z SO
WILL RESTART VCSH BETWEEN 11-13Z AREAWIDE. DRY AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE ON FRIDAY AND WILL END PRECIP FROM NE TO
SW DURING THE AFTN. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKES FCSTING WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  40  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  94  82 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 302004
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  93  82 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302004
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  93  82 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301748
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY
59. DROPPED MENTION OF TSRA IN TAFS BECAUSE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE AREA IS LIMITING CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N-NE
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS AM AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST. QUITE A DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 12Z LCH AND CRP SOUNDINGS (2.2 VS. 1.5 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER). GIVEN THIS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...AND THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT
THE CHC POP ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE WEST IS
ON TRACK FOR THIS AFT/EVE. MAX TEMPS NEAR 100 INLAND AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST APPEARS ON TRACK AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO
THE ONGOING FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  76 101  76 /  20  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  98  76 100  76 /  30  30  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  81  92  82 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301748
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY
59. DROPPED MENTION OF TSRA IN TAFS BECAUSE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE AREA IS LIMITING CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N-NE
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS AM AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST. QUITE A DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 12Z LCH AND CRP SOUNDINGS (2.2 VS. 1.5 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER). GIVEN THIS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...AND THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT
THE CHC POP ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE WEST IS
ON TRACK FOR THIS AFT/EVE. MAX TEMPS NEAR 100 INLAND AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST APPEARS ON TRACK AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO
THE ONGOING FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  76 101  76 /  20  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  98  76 100  76 /  30  30  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  81  92  82 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301404
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
904 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS AM AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST. QUITE A DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 12Z LCH AND CRP SOUNDINGS (2.2 VS. 1.5 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER). GIVEN THIS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...AND THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT
THE CHC POP ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE WEST IS
ON TRACK FOR THIS AFT/EVE. MAX TEMPS NEAR 100 INLAND AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST APPEARS ON TRACK AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO
THE ONGOING FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  78  99  76 101 /  10  20  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  98  76 100 /  30  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  81  92 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT ON RADAR THIS MORNING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE TX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
WV LOOPS/MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY
FROM THE GULF. PROGGED PWS TO RANGE FROM 2-2.1" BY THIS AFTN AS WE
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCT/SCT STORMS EXPECTED TO DEV-
ELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE INCREASE OF DEEP-
ER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW WITH POPS STAY-
ING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK FRONT SET
TO FILTER DOWN INTO MUCH OF SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REBOUND BACK NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SAT/SUN BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FAIRLY STEADY STRUGGLE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST TO REMAIN OUT WEST. THIS SEEMS TO PLACE SE TX
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKNESS REGION...AND PERHAPS THE POSSIBI-
LITY OF A MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE. BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE WILL
LIKELY ERR ON THE SIDE OF DRY IN THE EXTENDED FCSTS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF LEADING TO SW-W-NW WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12
KNOTS...STRONGER NEARSHORE AND OFF OF GALVESTON IN THE GULF. WE
SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW (W-NW) DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RELAXING THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF
SLIDES WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO SETX FRIDAY DRYING OUT MOST OF THE
REGION BUT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.

45

&&

AVIATION...
SO FAR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALL THAT DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT TO
SEE A BKN MVFR DECK DEVELOP NEAR BYY-66R-11R AND PERHAPS FILL BACK
IN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE IAH/HOU
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY EXPAND TO A FEW OTHER RURAL
TAF SITES IN THE COMING 2 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
VARYING FROM W-NW THIS MORNING TO SW-S-SE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA TODAY EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. GREATER CHANCES SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF 6R3-IAH-ARM LINE PRIMARILY IN THE 20-01Z TIME FRAME
EARLIER TIMES IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL SHIFTING WEST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WINDOW. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THOUGH.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  78  99  76 101 /  10  20  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  98  76 100 /  30  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  81  92 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT ON RADAR THIS MORNING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE TX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
WV LOOPS/MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY
FROM THE GULF. PROGGED PWS TO RANGE FROM 2-2.1" BY THIS AFTN AS WE
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCT/SCT STORMS EXPECTED TO DEV-
ELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE INCREASE OF DEEP-
ER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW WITH POPS STAY-
ING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK FRONT SET
TO FILTER DOWN INTO MUCH OF SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REBOUND BACK NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SAT/SUN BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FAIRLY STEADY STRUGGLE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST TO REMAIN OUT WEST. THIS SEEMS TO PLACE SE TX
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKNESS REGION...AND PERHAPS THE POSSIBI-
LITY OF A MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE. BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE WILL
LIKELY ERR ON THE SIDE OF DRY IN THE EXTENDED FCSTS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF LEADING TO SW-W-NW WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12
KNOTS...STRONGER NEARSHORE AND OFF OF GALVESTON IN THE GULF. WE
SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW (W-NW) DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RELAXING THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF
SLIDES WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO SETX FRIDAY DRYING OUT MOST OF THE
REGION BUT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.

45

&&

AVIATION...
SO FAR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALL THAT DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT TO
SEE A BKN MVFR DECK DEVELOP NEAR BYY-66R-11R AND PERHAPS FILL BACK
IN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE IAH/HOU
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY EXPAND TO A FEW OTHER RURAL
TAF SITES IN THE COMING 2 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
VARYING FROM W-NW THIS MORNING TO SW-S-SE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA TODAY EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. GREATER CHANCES SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF 6R3-IAH-ARM LINE PRIMARILY IN THE 20-01Z TIME FRAME
EARLIER TIMES IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL SHIFTING WEST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WINDOW. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THOUGH.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  78  99  76 101 /  10  20  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  98  76 100 /  30  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  81  92 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT ON RADAR THIS MORNING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE TX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
WV LOOPS/MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY
FROM THE GULF. PROGGED PWS TO RANGE FROM 2-2.1" BY THIS AFTN AS WE
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCT/SCT STORMS EXPECTED TO DEV-
ELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE INCREASE OF DEEP-
ER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW WITH POPS STAY-
ING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK FRONT SET
TO FILTER DOWN INTO MUCH OF SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REBOUND BACK NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SAT/SUN BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FAIRLY STEADY STRUGGLE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST TO REMAIN OUT WEST. THIS SEEMS TO PLACE SE TX
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKNESS REGION...AND PERHAPS THE POSSIBI-
LITY OF A MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE. BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE WILL
LIKELY ERR ON THE SIDE OF DRY IN THE EXTENDED FCSTS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF LEADING TO SW-W-NW WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12
KNOTS...STRONGER NEARSHORE AND OFF OF GALVESTON IN THE GULF. WE
SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW (W-NW) DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RELAXING THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF
SLIDES WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO SETX FRIDAY DRYING OUT MOST OF THE
REGION BUT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.

45

&&

AVIATION...
SO FAR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALL THAT DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT TO
SEE A BKN MVFR DECK DEVELOP NEAR BYY-66R-11R AND PERHAPS FILL BACK
IN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE IAH/HOU
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY EXPAND TO A FEW OTHER RURAL
TAF SITES IN THE COMING 2 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
VARYING FROM W-NW THIS MORNING TO SW-S-SE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA TODAY EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. GREATER CHANCES SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF 6R3-IAH-ARM LINE PRIMARILY IN THE 20-01Z TIME FRAME
EARLIER TIMES IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL SHIFTING WEST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WINDOW. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THOUGH.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  78  99  76 101 /  10  20  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  98  76 100 /  30  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  81  92 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT ON RADAR THIS MORNING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE TX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
WV LOOPS/MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY
FROM THE GULF. PROGGED PWS TO RANGE FROM 2-2.1" BY THIS AFTN AS WE
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCT/SCT STORMS EXPECTED TO DEV-
ELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE INCREASE OF DEEP-
ER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW WITH POPS STAY-
ING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK FRONT SET
TO FILTER DOWN INTO MUCH OF SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REBOUND BACK NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SAT/SUN BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FAIRLY STEADY STRUGGLE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST TO REMAIN OUT WEST. THIS SEEMS TO PLACE SE TX
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKNESS REGION...AND PERHAPS THE POSSIBI-
LITY OF A MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE. BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE WILL
LIKELY ERR ON THE SIDE OF DRY IN THE EXTENDED FCSTS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF LEADING TO SW-W-NW WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12
KNOTS...STRONGER NEARSHORE AND OFF OF GALVESTON IN THE GULF. WE
SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW (W-NW) DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RELAXING THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF
SLIDES WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO SETX FRIDAY DRYING OUT MOST OF THE
REGION BUT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.

45

&&

AVIATION...
SO FAR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALL THAT DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT TO
SEE A BKN MVFR DECK DEVELOP NEAR BYY-66R-11R AND PERHAPS FILL BACK
IN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE IAH/HOU
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY EXPAND TO A FEW OTHER RURAL
TAF SITES IN THE COMING 2 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
VARYING FROM W-NW THIS MORNING TO SW-S-SE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA TODAY EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. GREATER CHANCES SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF 6R3-IAH-ARM LINE PRIMARILY IN THE 20-01Z TIME FRAME
EARLIER TIMES IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL SHIFTING WEST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WINDOW. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THOUGH.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  78  99  76 101 /  10  20  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  98  76 100 /  30  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  81  92 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES AFTER 15Z WITH PW
VALUES EXCEEDING 2.00 INCHES BY 21Z. THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDING FOR
KIAH SHOW A PW VALUE AT 2.27 INCHES WITH A K INDEX OF 40 SO AFTN
TSRA IS A POSSIBILITY. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE FCST SOUNDINGS...
NEITHER THE NAM12 OR THE GFS GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS JUST LOOK TOO FAVORABLE...SO
FEEL AT LEAST SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH FOR THURS AFTN AND WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
ADD THUNDER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. HI-RES ARW AND THE TEXAS
TECH WRF ALSO SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING BETWEEN 18-21Z. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK SO EXPECTING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST TONIGHT WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
CONDITION AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE
DRY OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER COASTAL
WATERS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR COAST TOMORROW
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 10 AND POINTS SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 106 ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR THE
SEABREEZE. WILL HAVE A 20 POP FOR CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHC OF RAIN ON THU AND FRI ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SE TX. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO N/NE AREAS THU AFT/EVE THEN LIKELY STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS FRI/FRI NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRI
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE AREAS
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS REALLY DRY OUT.

ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PD...THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRI WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND THEN WARMER ON SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PEAK GENERALLY IN THE 100-107
DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT
WEEK...THEY BOTH WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE OVER SE
TEXAS...WE WILL SEE. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS SHOWING UP
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  78  99  76 /  10  10  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  99  78  98  76 /  10  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  82  92  81 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES AFTER 15Z WITH PW
VALUES EXCEEDING 2.00 INCHES BY 21Z. THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDING FOR
KIAH SHOW A PW VALUE AT 2.27 INCHES WITH A K INDEX OF 40 SO AFTN
TSRA IS A POSSIBILITY. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE FCST SOUNDINGS...
NEITHER THE NAM12 OR THE GFS GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS JUST LOOK TOO FAVORABLE...SO
FEEL AT LEAST SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH FOR THURS AFTN AND WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
ADD THUNDER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. HI-RES ARW AND THE TEXAS
TECH WRF ALSO SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING BETWEEN 18-21Z. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK SO EXPECTING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST TONIGHT WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
CONDITION AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE
DRY OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER COASTAL
WATERS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR COAST TOMORROW
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 10 AND POINTS SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 106 ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR THE
SEABREEZE. WILL HAVE A 20 POP FOR CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHC OF RAIN ON THU AND FRI ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SE TX. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO N/NE AREAS THU AFT/EVE THEN LIKELY STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS FRI/FRI NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRI
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE AREAS
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS REALLY DRY OUT.

ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PD...THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRI WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND THEN WARMER ON SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PEAK GENERALLY IN THE 100-107
DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT
WEEK...THEY BOTH WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE OVER SE
TEXAS...WE WILL SEE. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS SHOWING UP
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  78  99  76 /  10  10  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  99  78  98  76 /  10  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  82  92  81 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300240
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
940 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST TONIGHT WITH SOME ADUSTMENTS TO SKY
CONDITION AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE
DRY OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER COASTAL
WATERS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR COAST TOMORROW
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 10 AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF AREA TAF SITES WILL DISSIPATE AND SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH 10Z. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PW VALUES AFTER 15Z WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.00
INCHES BY 21Z. THE GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PW VALUE NEAR 2.30
WITH A K INDEX OF 42 SO AFTN TSRA IS A POSSIBILITY. HI-RES ARW AND
THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING BETWEEN 18-21Z.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK SO
EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 106 ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR THE
SEABREEZE. WILL HAVE A 20 POP FOR CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHC OF RAIN ON THU AND FRI ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SE TX. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO N/NE AREAS THU AFT/EVE THEN LIKELY STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS FRI/FRI NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRI
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE AREAS
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS REALLY DRY OUT.

ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PD...THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRI WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND THEN WARMER ON SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PEAK GENERALLY IN THE 100-107
DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT
WEEK...THEY BOTH WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE OVER SE
TEXAS...WE WILL SEE. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS SHOWING UP
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  78  99  76 /  10  10  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  99  78  98  76 /  10  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  82  92  81 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300240
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
940 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST TONIGHT WITH SOME ADUSTMENTS TO SKY
CONDITION AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE
DRY OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER COASTAL
WATERS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR COAST TOMORROW
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 10 AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF AREA TAF SITES WILL DISSIPATE AND SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH 10Z. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PW VALUES AFTER 15Z WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.00
INCHES BY 21Z. THE GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PW VALUE NEAR 2.30
WITH A K INDEX OF 42 SO AFTN TSRA IS A POSSIBILITY. HI-RES ARW AND
THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING BETWEEN 18-21Z.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK SO
EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 106 ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR THE
SEABREEZE. WILL HAVE A 20 POP FOR CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHC OF RAIN ON THU AND FRI ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SE TX. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO N/NE AREAS THU AFT/EVE THEN LIKELY STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS FRI/FRI NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRI
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE AREAS
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS REALLY DRY OUT.

ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PD...THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRI WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND THEN WARMER ON SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PEAK GENERALLY IN THE 100-107
DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT
WEEK...THEY BOTH WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE OVER SE
TEXAS...WE WILL SEE. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS SHOWING UP
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  78  99  76 /  10  10  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  99  78  98  76 /  10  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  82  92  81 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF AREA TAF SITES WILL DISSIPATE AND SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH 10Z. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PW VALUES AFTER 15Z WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.00
INCHES BY 21Z. THE GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PW VALUE NEAR 2.30
WITH A K INDEX OF 42 SO AFTN TSRA IS A POSSIBILITY. HI-RES ARW AND
THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING BETWEEN 18-21Z.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK SO
EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 106 ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR THE
SEABREEZE. WILL HAVE A 20 POP FOR CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHC OF RAIN ON THU AND FRI ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SE TX. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO N/NE AREAS THU AFT/EVE THEN LIKELY STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS FRI/FRI NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRI
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE AREAS
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS REALLY DRY OUT.

ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PD...THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRI WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND THEN WARMER ON SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PEAK GENERALLY IN THE 100-107
DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT
WEEK...THEY BOTH WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE OVER SE
TEXAS...WE WILL SEE. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS SHOWING UP
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  99  78  99 /  10  10  10  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  76  99  78  98 /  20  20  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF AREA TAF SITES WILL DISSIPATE AND SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH 10Z. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PW VALUES AFTER 15Z WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.00
INCHES BY 21Z. THE GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PW VALUE NEAR 2.30
WITH A K INDEX OF 42 SO AFTN TSRA IS A POSSIBILITY. HI-RES ARW AND
THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING BETWEEN 18-21Z.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK SO
EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 106 ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR THE
SEABREEZE. WILL HAVE A 20 POP FOR CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHC OF RAIN ON THU AND FRI ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SE TX. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO N/NE AREAS THU AFT/EVE THEN LIKELY STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS FRI/FRI NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRI
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE AREAS
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS REALLY DRY OUT.

ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PD...THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRI WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND THEN WARMER ON SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PEAK GENERALLY IN THE 100-107
DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT
WEEK...THEY BOTH WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE OVER SE
TEXAS...WE WILL SEE. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS SHOWING UP
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  99  78  99 /  10  10  10  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  76  99  78  98 /  20  20  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 106 ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR THE
SEABREEZE. WILL HAVE A 20 POP FOR CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHC OF RAIN ON THU AND FRI ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SE TX. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO N/NE AREAS THU AFT/EVE THEN LIKELY STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS FRI/FRI NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRI
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE AREAS
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS REALLY DRY OUT.

ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PD...THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRI WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND THEN WARMER ON SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PEAK GENERALLY IN THE 100-107
DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT
WEEK...THEY BOTH WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE OVER SE
TEXAS...WE WILL SEE. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS SHOWING UP
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 33

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  78  98  76 /  10  10  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  99  78  98  76 /  20  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  82  92  81 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291734
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE REMAINS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
THE TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP SLIGHTLY
FROM THE SE-S WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT
LIKELY TO EFFECT TERMINALS FURTHER INLAND FROM THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA.

BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST. SEEING SOME PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AM. WILL SEE
THESE MIX OUT WITH HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER HOT ONE IS
ON TAP WITH INLAND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 96 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  78  99  77 /  10  20  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  99  78  99  77 /  10  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  92  81 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291734
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE REMAINS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
THE TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP SLIGHTLY
FROM THE SE-S WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT
LIKELY TO EFFECT TERMINALS FURTHER INLAND FROM THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA.

BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST. SEEING SOME PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AM. WILL SEE
THESE MIX OUT WITH HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER HOT ONE IS
ON TAP WITH INLAND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 96 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  78  99  77 /  10  20  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  99  78  99  77 /  10  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  92  81 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291403
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST. SEEING SOME PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AM. WILL SEE
THESE MIX OUT WITH HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER HOT ONE IS
ON TAP WITH INLAND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 96 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  20  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291403
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST. SEEING SOME PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AM. WILL SEE
THESE MIX OUT WITH HEATING LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER HOT ONE IS
ON TAP WITH INLAND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 96 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  20  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291151
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
651 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LIFT BY MID MORNING AT KLBX AND KSGR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL
BE TOO LIGHT TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM THE SE-S THIS
AFTERNOON. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERHAPS ONE MORE "QUIET" DAY TODAY BEFORE PCPN CHCS NUDGE UP A BIT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU/FRI. PWS CONTINUING TO
HOVER AROUND 2" ACROSS SE TX TODAY...WITH THE WV IMAGERY SHOWING A
STEADY FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. SO THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
ISO SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN. CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS NEAR 100F
FOR TODAY EITHER.

WE SHOULD GET A SLIGHT RESPITE TOMORROW/FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY (AIDED BY THE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN U.S.). THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF PWS AOA 2" AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT (20-30%). HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERN
WITH LINGERING SUBSIDENCE (FOR PCPN TO FIGHT THROUGH). AND SO WILL
BE KEEPING THINGS STATUS QUO FOR NOW. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP RAISE TEMPS BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS WILL
BE KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON THIS. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF THEN MOVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS LA AND E TX TOWARD THE COAST LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
EITHER EVENT...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS...AND ON SATURDAY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. BOTH MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  20  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41/40
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291151
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
651 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LIFT BY MID MORNING AT KLBX AND KSGR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL
BE TOO LIGHT TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM THE SE-S THIS
AFTERNOON. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERHAPS ONE MORE "QUIET" DAY TODAY BEFORE PCPN CHCS NUDGE UP A BIT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU/FRI. PWS CONTINUING TO
HOVER AROUND 2" ACROSS SE TX TODAY...WITH THE WV IMAGERY SHOWING A
STEADY FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. SO THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
ISO SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN. CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS NEAR 100F
FOR TODAY EITHER.

WE SHOULD GET A SLIGHT RESPITE TOMORROW/FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY (AIDED BY THE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN U.S.). THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF PWS AOA 2" AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT (20-30%). HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERN
WITH LINGERING SUBSIDENCE (FOR PCPN TO FIGHT THROUGH). AND SO WILL
BE KEEPING THINGS STATUS QUO FOR NOW. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP RAISE TEMPS BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS WILL
BE KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON THIS. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF THEN MOVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS LA AND E TX TOWARD THE COAST LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
EITHER EVENT...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS...AND ON SATURDAY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. BOTH MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  20  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41/40
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290911
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERHAPS ONE MORE "QUIET" DAY TODAY BEFORE PCPN CHCS NUDGE UP A BIT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU/FRI. PWS CONTINUING TO
HOVER AROUND 2" ACROSS SE TX TODAY...WITH THE WV IMAGERY SHOWING A
STEADY FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. SO THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
ISO SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN. CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS NEAR 100F
FOR TODAY EITHER.

WE SHOULD GET A SLIGHT RESPITE TOMORROW/FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY (AIDED BY THE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN U.S.). THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF PWS AOA 2" AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT (20-30%). HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERN
WITH LINGERING SUBSIDENCE (FOR PCPN TO FIGHT THROUGH). AND SO WILL
BE KEEPING THINGS STATUS QUO FOR NOW. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP RAISE TEMPS BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS WILL
BE KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON THIS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF THEN MOVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS LA AND E TX TOWARD THE COAST LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
EITHER EVENT...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS...AND ON SATURDAY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. BOTH MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  20  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290911
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERHAPS ONE MORE "QUIET" DAY TODAY BEFORE PCPN CHCS NUDGE UP A BIT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU/FRI. PWS CONTINUING TO
HOVER AROUND 2" ACROSS SE TX TODAY...WITH THE WV IMAGERY SHOWING A
STEADY FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. SO THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
ISO SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN. CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS NEAR 100F
FOR TODAY EITHER.

WE SHOULD GET A SLIGHT RESPITE TOMORROW/FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY (AIDED BY THE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN U.S.). THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF PWS AOA 2" AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT (20-30%). HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERN
WITH LINGERING SUBSIDENCE (FOR PCPN TO FIGHT THROUGH). AND SO WILL
BE KEEPING THINGS STATUS QUO FOR NOW. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP RAISE TEMPS BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS WILL
BE KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON THIS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF THEN MOVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS LA AND E TX TOWARD THE COAST LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
EITHER EVENT...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS...AND ON SATURDAY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. BOTH MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  20  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99





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