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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011725
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE
BEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF A GLS-IAH-UTS LINE. WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY AND AMEND THIS AFTERNOON IF ANY TSRA
DEVELOP IN/AROUND TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT INLAND SITES. IFR/LIFR LEVELS
ALONG WITH SOME SHRA COULD DEVELOP TOO. THE AREA SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
QUICKER LIFTING OF THE MORNING LOW STUFF TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS.

COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE BOUNDARY AND WIND
SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE CLL AREA 05Z-07Z (MIDNIGHT-2AM)...THE IAH AREA
08Z-10Z (2AM-4AM)...AND THE GLS AREA 10Z-12Z (5AM-7AM). EXPECT TO SEE
SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS QUICKLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALSO FALLS IN BETWEEN VERY MOIST AIR TO THE EAST
WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. KLCH SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWING PWATS AT 2.25" WHILE KCRP SOUNDING SHOWING A 1.60" PWAT
WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700MB. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS TO HAVE MOST OF THIS COVERED. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP
AND MAX T GRIDS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE
ARE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE LED TO PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE ONCE MIXING OCCURS AFTER
SUN RISE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AROUND 15-16Z TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE VFR CIGS AFTER THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SECOND THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF A KHOU/KIAH/KCXO LINE. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR A FEW OF THE HOUSTON AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. MAIN
MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EAST THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER BASIN AND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA IN THESE AREAS. THINK
IF ANY TSRA DO DEVELOP IT WILL BE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS.

FINALLY LOOK FOR A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THUR MORNING. HAVE ADDED
TAF LINES TO COVER CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA. DO NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH FOG AS
WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FARTHER INLAND.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  76  92  68  83 /  20  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011725
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE
BEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF A GLS-IAH-UTS LINE. WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY AND AMEND THIS AFTERNOON IF ANY TSRA
DEVELOP IN/AROUND TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT INLAND SITES. IFR/LIFR LEVELS
ALONG WITH SOME SHRA COULD DEVELOP TOO. THE AREA SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
QUICKER LIFTING OF THE MORNING LOW STUFF TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS.

COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE BOUNDARY AND WIND
SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE CLL AREA 05Z-07Z (MIDNIGHT-2AM)...THE IAH AREA
08Z-10Z (2AM-4AM)...AND THE GLS AREA 10Z-12Z (5AM-7AM). EXPECT TO SEE
SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS QUICKLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALSO FALLS IN BETWEEN VERY MOIST AIR TO THE EAST
WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. KLCH SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWING PWATS AT 2.25" WHILE KCRP SOUNDING SHOWING A 1.60" PWAT
WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700MB. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS TO HAVE MOST OF THIS COVERED. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP
AND MAX T GRIDS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE
ARE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE LED TO PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE ONCE MIXING OCCURS AFTER
SUN RISE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AROUND 15-16Z TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE VFR CIGS AFTER THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SECOND THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF A KHOU/KIAH/KCXO LINE. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR A FEW OF THE HOUSTON AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. MAIN
MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EAST THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER BASIN AND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA IN THESE AREAS. THINK
IF ANY TSRA DO DEVELOP IT WILL BE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS.

FINALLY LOOK FOR A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THUR MORNING. HAVE ADDED
TAF LINES TO COVER CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA. DO NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH FOG AS
WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FARTHER INLAND.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  76  92  68  83 /  20  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 011534
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1034 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS QUICKLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALSO FALLS IN BETWEEN VERY MOIST AIR TO THE EAST
WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. KLCH SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWING PWATS AT 2.25" WHILE KCRP SOUNDING SHOWING A 1.60" PWAT
WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700MB. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS TO HAVE MOST OF THIS COVERED. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP
AND MAX T GRIDS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE
ARE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE LED TO PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE ONCE MIXING OCCURS AFTER
SUN RISE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AROUND 15-16Z TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE VFR CIGS AFTER THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SECOND THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF A KHOU/KIAH/KCXO LINE. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR A FEW OF THE HOUSTON AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. MAIN
MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EAST THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER BASIN AND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA IN THESE AREAS. THINK
IF ANY TSRA DO DEVELOP IT WILL BE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS.

FINALLY LOOK FOR A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THUR MORNING. HAVE ADDED
TAF LINES TO COVER CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA. DO NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH FOG AS
WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FARTHER INLAND.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  76  92  68  83 /  20  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011534
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1034 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS QUICKLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALSO FALLS IN BETWEEN VERY MOIST AIR TO THE EAST
WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. KLCH SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWING PWATS AT 2.25" WHILE KCRP SOUNDING SHOWING A 1.60" PWAT
WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700MB. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS TO HAVE MOST OF THIS COVERED. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP
AND MAX T GRIDS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE
ARE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE LED TO PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE ONCE MIXING OCCURS AFTER
SUN RISE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AROUND 15-16Z TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE VFR CIGS AFTER THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SECOND THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF A KHOU/KIAH/KCXO LINE. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR A FEW OF THE HOUSTON AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. MAIN
MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EAST THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER BASIN AND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA IN THESE AREAS. THINK
IF ANY TSRA DO DEVELOP IT WILL BE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS.

FINALLY LOOK FOR A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THUR MORNING. HAVE ADDED
TAF LINES TO COVER CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA. DO NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH FOG AS
WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FARTHER INLAND.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  76  92  68  83 /  20  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 011149
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
649 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE
ARE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE LED TO PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE ONCE MIXING OCCURS AFTER
SUN RISE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AROUND 15-16Z TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE VFR CIGS AFTER THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SECOND THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF A KHOU/KIAH/KCXO LINE. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR A FEW OF THE HOUSTON AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. MAIN
MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EAST THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER BASIN AND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA IN THESE AREAS. THINK
IF ANY TSRA DO DEVELOP IT WILL BE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS.

FINALLY LOOK FOR A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THUR MORNING. HAVE ADDED
TAF LINES TO COVER CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA. DO NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH FOG AS
WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FARTHER INLAND.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  92  68  83 /  20  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011118
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FARTHER INLAND.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  92  68  83 /  20  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 011118
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FARTHER INLAND.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  92  68  83 /  20  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010847
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  92  68  83 /  10  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 010847
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  92  68  83 /  10  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
856 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR ESTIMATES 1-3" OF PRECIP FELL IN PARTS OF N CNTL BRAZORIA
CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF PRECIP. MOST OF
THE SCT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED W/ LOSS OF HEATING. WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
SKIES TEMPORARILY CLEAR AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A JUICY AIRMASS OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION WITH SOME PW READINGS ABOVE 2.1". RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED RETURNS OFFSHORE AND WITH SOME OF THE
LATEST FCST GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO/SCT REDEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT WENT AHEAD AND PUT SOME 20-30% POPS INTO THE FCST.
ALSO NUDGED LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AT SOME SPOTS AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS HAVE ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  68 /  10  10  10  40  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  90  77  91  72 /  20  30  10  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  79  87  77 /  30  30  10  20  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 302356
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
PCPN BEGINNING TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...LIKELY DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SLOWING IN-
CREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
MOST OF SE TX OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDS MORNING. MVFR VIS TO PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE SITES...BUT HAVE GONE IFR FOR A COUPLE OF SITES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT PCPN POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTN (AS PER THE ON-
GOING ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF (NEAR AND FAR OFFSHORE)). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DAYTIME HEATING HAS GOTTEN SCATTERED (SLOW MOVING) STORMS GOING
IN THE SW AREAS AND A FEW FROM MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON
NORTHWARD. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS EXPECTED AND 75-77
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEARLY ONSHORE. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. THE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE RAINS WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND UP NORTH
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER TEMPERATURE FALLS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE T/TD SPREADS AND
SUCH AS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEGINNING OVER THE WATERS AND EXPANDING INLAND
IN THE MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL AS WELL WITH A
GOOD CU FIELD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDS FROM SETX TO OK (MAGNITUDES IN
THE TOP 1 PERCENT ALONG WITH ELEVATED TEMPERATURES ALOFT) SO
STORMS ONCE THEY OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2700 CAPE AND LI -4 TO -7 THOUGH THE SHEAR
PROFILES DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN MUCH BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH
FROPA TO 60-70 WITH THE PASSAGE. THEN ABRUPTLY DROP AS STRONG CAA
KICKS IN AND DRY AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
ON TAP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR AND DECREASING
WINDS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  92  76  92  68 /  20  10  10  40  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  77  91  72 /  40  30  10  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  79  87  77 /  20  20  10  20  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 302356
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
PCPN BEGINNING TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...LIKELY DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SLOWING IN-
CREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
MOST OF SE TX OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDS MORNING. MVFR VIS TO PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE SITES...BUT HAVE GONE IFR FOR A COUPLE OF SITES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT PCPN POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTN (AS PER THE ON-
GOING ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF (NEAR AND FAR OFFSHORE)). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DAYTIME HEATING HAS GOTTEN SCATTERED (SLOW MOVING) STORMS GOING
IN THE SW AREAS AND A FEW FROM MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON
NORTHWARD. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS EXPECTED AND 75-77
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEARLY ONSHORE. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. THE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE RAINS WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND UP NORTH
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER TEMPERATURE FALLS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE T/TD SPREADS AND
SUCH AS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEGINNING OVER THE WATERS AND EXPANDING INLAND
IN THE MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL AS WELL WITH A
GOOD CU FIELD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDS FROM SETX TO OK (MAGNITUDES IN
THE TOP 1 PERCENT ALONG WITH ELEVATED TEMPERATURES ALOFT) SO
STORMS ONCE THEY OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2700 CAPE AND LI -4 TO -7 THOUGH THE SHEAR
PROFILES DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN MUCH BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH
FROPA TO 60-70 WITH THE PASSAGE. THEN ABRUPTLY DROP AS STRONG CAA
KICKS IN AND DRY AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
ON TAP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR AND DECREASING
WINDS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  92  76  92  68 /  20  10  10  40  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  77  91  72 /  40  30  10  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  79  87  77 /  20  20  10  20  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302057
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS GOTTEN SCATTERED (SLOW MOVING) STORMS GOING
IN THE SW AREAS AND A FEW FROM MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON
NORTHWARD. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS EXPECTED AND 75-77
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEARLY ONSHORE. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. THE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE RAINS WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND UP NORTH
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER TEMPERATURE FALLS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE T/TD SPREADS AND
SUCH AS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEGINNING OVER THE WATERS AND EXPANDING INLAND
IN THE MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL AS WELL WITH A
GOOD CU FIELD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDS FROM SETX TO OK (MAGNITUDES IN
THE TOP 1 PERCENT ALONG WITH ELEVATED TEMPERATURES ALOFT) SO
STORMS ONCE THEY OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2700 CAPE AND LI -4 TO -7 THOUGH THE SHEAR
PROFILES DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN MUCH BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH
FROPA TO 60-70 WITH THE PASSAGE. THEN ABRUPTLY DROP AS STRONG CAA
KICKS IN AND DRY AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
ON TAP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR AND DECREASING
WINDS.
45



&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS.

38


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  92  76  92  68 /  10  10  10  40  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  77  91  72 /  10  30  10  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  79  87  77 /  10  20  10  20  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 302057
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS GOTTEN SCATTERED (SLOW MOVING) STORMS GOING
IN THE SW AREAS AND A FEW FROM MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON
NORTHWARD. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS EXPECTED AND 75-77
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEARLY ONSHORE. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. THE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE RAINS WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND UP NORTH
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER TEMPERATURE FALLS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE T/TD SPREADS AND
SUCH AS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEGINNING OVER THE WATERS AND EXPANDING INLAND
IN THE MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL AS WELL WITH A
GOOD CU FIELD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDS FROM SETX TO OK (MAGNITUDES IN
THE TOP 1 PERCENT ALONG WITH ELEVATED TEMPERATURES ALOFT) SO
STORMS ONCE THEY OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2700 CAPE AND LI -4 TO -7 THOUGH THE SHEAR
PROFILES DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN MUCH BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH
FROPA TO 60-70 WITH THE PASSAGE. THEN ABRUPTLY DROP AS STRONG CAA
KICKS IN AND DRY AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
ON TAP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR AND DECREASING
WINDS.
45



&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS.

38


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  92  76  92  68 /  10  10  10  40  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  77  91  72 /  10  30  10  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  79  87  77 /  10  20  10  20  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301741
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM INLAND OF MATAGORDA BAY AND WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED A VCTS FOR LBX AND
THE METRO AREA TAF SITES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LOW BUT BOTH THE
TXTECH WRF AND 12Z HRRR RUNS FOCUS ACTIVITY NEAR THE METRO AREA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
REGION. AGAIN THE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE GFS IS
LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR
NOW AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THIS EVENING. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  92  76  92  68 /  10  10  10  30  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  77  91  72 /  10  20  10  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  79  87  77 /  10  20  10  20  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD MATAGORDA
BAY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME DIFFUSE. WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SLOW
MOVING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TO THE WEST OF THE HOUSTON METROPLEX IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT/SEABREEZE. DO EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN
THE MORNING...NOT SURE IT WILL BE DENSE BUT CAN`T RULE IT OUT YET
GIVEN THE SETUP WITH A FAVORABLE RADIATION PROFILE...CALM
WINDS...AND SATURATED. SO HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNING.
45

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN TO START THE TAF WILL BE VSBY AT KLBX/KSGR/KCXO AS
EACH OF THESE TERMINALS HAVE SEEN LOWER VSBY. FOG SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
WRF/HRRR MODELS HAVE WEAK SHRA DEVELOPING BUT REALLY HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND RIDGING ALOFT.

OTHER QUESTION WILL BE IF MVFR CIGS DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF SHOULD SET UP WITH 20-25KT LLJ. MODEL
MOISTURE FIELDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS BUT MAY BE
OVERDONE A BIT. HAVE TIME TO NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS WITH FUTURE
TAFS SO JUST INDICATED SCT CLOUD DECKS FOR A FEW TERMINALS. DID
INDICATE MVFR AT KCLL/KUTS/KCXO WHERE STRATUS MAY BE MORE FAVORED.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON ITS STRENGTH BUT ARE CLOSE IN TIMING. BOTH MODELS
PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE TX THURSDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH EITHER
TO AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PLUS SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AROUND 7 AM ON
FRIDAY. THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUED THIS TIMING. THE QPF FIELDS FOR
BOTH MODELS PROVIDE GOOD COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH
OF A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
LOOK TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THUR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY INTO FRI. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. NE WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT LATEST
FORECASTS HAVE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE SATURDAY AND TURN BACK TO THE SE ON SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  72  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  73  90  77  91 /  20  10  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  78  84  79  87 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN TO START THE TAF WILL BE VSBY AT KLBX/KSGR/KCXO AS
EACH OF THESE TERMINALS HAVE SEEN LOWER VSBY. FOG SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
WRF/HRRR MODELS HAVE WEAK SHRA DEVELOPING BUT REALLY HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND RIDGING ALOFT.

OTHER QUESTION WILL BE IF MVFR CIGS DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF SHOULD SET UP WITH 20-25KT LLJ. MODEL
MOISTURE FIELDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS BUT MAY BE
OVERDONE A BIT. HAVE TIME TO NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS WIH FUTURE
TAFS SO JUST INDICATED SCT CLOUD DECKS FOR A FEW TERMINALS. DID
INDICATE MVFR AT KCLL/KUTS/KCXO WHERE STRATUS MAY BE MORE FAVORED.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON ITS STRENGTH BUT ARE CLOSE IN TIMING. BOTH MODELS
PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE TX THURSDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH EITHER
TO AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PLUS SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AROUND 7 AM ON
FRIDAY. THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUED THIS TIMING. THE QPF FIELDS FOR
BOTH MODELS PROVIDE GOOD COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH
OF A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
LOOK TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THUR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY INTO FRI. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. NE WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT LATEST
FORECASTS HAVE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE SATURDAY AND TURN BACK TO THE SE ON SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  72  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  77  91 /  20  10  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  84  79  87 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN TO START THE TAF WILL BE VSBY AT KLBX/KSGR/KCXO AS
EACH OF THESE TERMINALS HAVE SEEN LOWER VSBY. FOG SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
WRF/HRRR MODELS HAVE WEAK SHRA DEVELOPING BUT REALLY HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND RIDGING ALOFT.

OTHER QUESTION WILL BE IF MVFR CIGS DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF SHOULD SET UP WITH 20-25KT LLJ. MODEL
MOISTURE FIELDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS BUT MAY BE
OVERDONE A BIT. HAVE TIME TO NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS WIH FUTURE
TAFS SO JUST INDICATED SCT CLOUD DECKS FOR A FEW TERMINALS. DID
INDICATE MVFR AT KCLL/KUTS/KCXO WHERE STRATUS MAY BE MORE FAVORED.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON ITS STRENGTH BUT ARE CLOSE IN TIMING. BOTH MODELS
PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE TX THURSDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH EITHER
TO AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PLUS SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AROUND 7 AM ON
FRIDAY. THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUED THIS TIMING. THE QPF FIELDS FOR
BOTH MODELS PROVIDE GOOD COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH
OF A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
LOOK TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THUR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY INTO FRI. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. NE WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT LATEST
FORECASTS HAVE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE SATURDAY AND TURN BACK TO THE SE ON SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  72  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  77  91 /  20  10  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  84  79  87 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300908
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON ITS STRENGTH BUT ARE CLOSE IN TIMING. BOTH MODELS
PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE TX THURSDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH EITHER
TO AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PLUS SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AROUND 7 AM ON
FRIDAY. THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUED THIS TIMING. THE QPF FIELDS FOR
BOTH MODELS PROVIDE GOOD COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH
OF A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
LOOK TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THUR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY INTO FRI. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. NE WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT LATEST
FORECASTS HAVE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE SATURDAY AND TURN BACK TO THE SE ON SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  72  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  77  91 /  20  10  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  84  79  87 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300908
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON ITS STRENGTH BUT ARE CLOSE IN TIMING. BOTH MODELS
PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE TX THURSDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH EITHER
TO AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PLUS SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AROUND 7 AM ON
FRIDAY. THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUED THIS TIMING. THE QPF FIELDS FOR
BOTH MODELS PROVIDE GOOD COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH
OF A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
LOOK TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THUR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY INTO FRI. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. NE WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT LATEST
FORECASTS HAVE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE SATURDAY AND TURN BACK TO THE SE ON SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  72  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  77  91 /  20  10  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  84  79  87 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300442
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 6Z TAF PACKAGE...PLAN TO HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER AT
THE RURAL TAF SITES. TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD IS WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING SOME 4-6SM
VISBYS ALREADY. WOULDN`T DOUBT SEEING A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE LBX/CXO. OTHERWISE...KEPT
GENERAL TAF PACKAGE ABOUT THE SAME DURING THE DAY - MOSTLY VFR
FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY COMING
IN WITH MORE SCT AFTN PRECIP THEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AS DEEPER
MOISTURE STARTS MOVING BACK IN. OTHER SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY. THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING SOME VCSH`S...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT ALL THE NEWEST DATA AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT THINKING
ANYTHING DENSE AT THIS POINT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
INTERESTING TO NOTE NAM/WRF FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...INCLUDING
LATEST 00Z RUN...HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A THETA E RIDGE...ALONG GULF FREEWAY AND
POINTS NW...BUT MODEL IS PRETTY MUCH ON ITS OWN IN SHOWING THAT
SCENARIO...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW. STILL
SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES OVER HOUSTON COUNTY BUT THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO. 46


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300442
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 6Z TAF PACKAGE...PLAN TO HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER AT
THE RURAL TAF SITES. TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD IS WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING SOME 4-6SM
VISBYS ALREADY. WOULDN`T DOUBT SEEING A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE LBX/CXO. OTHERWISE...KEPT
GENERAL TAF PACKAGE ABOUT THE SAME DURING THE DAY - MOSTLY VFR
FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY COMING
IN WITH MORE SCT AFTN PRECIP THEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AS DEEPER
MOISTURE STARTS MOVING BACK IN. OTHER SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY. THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING SOME VCSH`S...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT ALL THE NEWEST DATA AND ADJUST IF
NECESSARY. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT THINKING
ANYTHING DENSE AT THIS POINT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
INTERESTING TO NOTE NAM/WRF FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...INCLUDING
LATEST 00Z RUN...HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A THETA E RIDGE...ALONG GULF FREEWAY AND
POINTS NW...BUT MODEL IS PRETTY MUCH ON ITS OWN IN SHOWING THAT
SCENARIO...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW. STILL
SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES OVER HOUSTON COUNTY BUT THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO. 46


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300224
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
924 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT THINKING
ANYTHING DENSE AT THIS POINT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
INTERESTING TO NOTE NAM/WRF FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...INCLUDING
LATEST 00Z RUN...HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A THETA E RIDGE...ALONG GULF FREEWAY
AND POINTS NW...BUT MODEL IS PRETTY MUCH ON ITS OWN IN SHOWING
THAT SCENARIO...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW.
STILL SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES OVER HOUSTON COUNTY BUT THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT SET OF TAFS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND VERY FEW CHANGES MADE
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE. GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FCST OF MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OR FOG AT RURAL
SITES LATE TONIGHT. NAM12 KEEPS WANTING TO GENERATE SOME SCT SHRA
ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT BUT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
DOING THIS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BUT WON`T INCLUDE A MENTION IN
TAFS ATTM. MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...VFR WITH JUST SOME
SPOTTY SHRA POPPING UP AROUND TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS MAINTAINING THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SETX THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND RADAR SHOWING
CU/TCU STRUGGLING TO FORM INTO SHOWERS. SHOULD ANY FORM THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A GROVETON TO CONROE TO WHARTON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT OF MUCH
IMPACT.

RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED TOWARD THE COAST
AND STILL ONLY 20-30 PERCENT. WARMER WEATHER BOTH TUE AND WED AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER ACTION SHOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE ARRIVING IN
THE CWA AND SWEEPING THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-60 PERCENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TO
700-1500 J/KG BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 800-700MB WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LOW AS WELL THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY...PROBABLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. DRY WEATHER PUSHES IN QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MILD DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.  45

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300224
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
924 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT THINKING
ANYTHING DENSE AT THIS POINT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
INTERESTING TO NOTE NAM/WRF FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...INCLUDING
LATEST 00Z RUN...HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A THETA E RIDGE...ALONG GULF FREEWAY
AND POINTS NW...BUT MODEL IS PRETTY MUCH ON ITS OWN IN SHOWING
THAT SCENARIO...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW.
STILL SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES OVER HOUSTON COUNTY BUT THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT SET OF TAFS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND VERY FEW CHANGES MADE
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE. GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FCST OF MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OR FOG AT RURAL
SITES LATE TONIGHT. NAM12 KEEPS WANTING TO GENERATE SOME SCT SHRA
ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT BUT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
DOING THIS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BUT WON`T INCLUDE A MENTION IN
TAFS ATTM. MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...VFR WITH JUST SOME
SPOTTY SHRA POPPING UP AROUND TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS MAINTAINING THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SETX THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND RADAR SHOWING
CU/TCU STRUGGLING TO FORM INTO SHOWERS. SHOULD ANY FORM THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A GROVETON TO CONROE TO WHARTON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT OF MUCH
IMPACT.

RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED TOWARD THE COAST
AND STILL ONLY 20-30 PERCENT. WARMER WEATHER BOTH TUE AND WED AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER ACTION SHOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE ARRIVING IN
THE CWA AND SWEEPING THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-60 PERCENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TO
700-1500 J/KG BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 800-700MB WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LOW AS WELL THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY...PROBABLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. DRY WEATHER PUSHES IN QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MILD DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.  45

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292319
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SET OF TAFS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND VERY FEW CHANGES MADE
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE. GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FCST OF MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OR FOG AT RURAL
SITES LATE TONIGHT. NAM12 KEEPS WANTING TO GENERATE SOME SCT SHRA
ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT BUT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
DOING THIS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BUT WON`T INCLUDE A MENTION IN
TAFS ATTM. MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...VFR WITH JUST SOME
SPOTTY SHRA POPPING UP AROUND TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS MAINTAINING THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SETX THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND RADAR SHOWING
CU/TCU STRUGGLING TO FORM INTO SHOWERS. SHOULD ANY FORM THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A GROVETON TO CONROE TO WHARTON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT OF MUCH
IMPACT.

RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED TOWARD THE COAST
AND STILL ONLY 20-30 PERCENT. WARMER WEATHER BOTH TUE AND WED AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER ACTION SHOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE ARRIVING IN
THE CWA AND SWEEPING THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-60 PERCENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TO
700-1500 J/KG BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 800-700MB WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LOW AS WELL THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY...PROBABLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. DRY WEATHER PUSHES IN QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MILD DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.  45

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292319
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SET OF TAFS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND VERY FEW CHANGES MADE
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE. GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FCST OF MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OR FOG AT RURAL
SITES LATE TONIGHT. NAM12 KEEPS WANTING TO GENERATE SOME SCT SHRA
ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT BUT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
DOING THIS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BUT WON`T INCLUDE A MENTION IN
TAFS ATTM. MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...VFR WITH JUST SOME
SPOTTY SHRA POPPING UP AROUND TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS MAINTAINING THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SETX THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND RADAR SHOWING
CU/TCU STRUGGLING TO FORM INTO SHOWERS. SHOULD ANY FORM THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A GROVETON TO CONROE TO WHARTON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT OF MUCH
IMPACT.

RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED TOWARD THE COAST
AND STILL ONLY 20-30 PERCENT. WARMER WEATHER BOTH TUE AND WED AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER ACTION SHOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE ARRIVING IN
THE CWA AND SWEEPING THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-60 PERCENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TO
700-1500 J/KG BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 800-700MB WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LOW AS WELL THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY...PROBABLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. DRY WEATHER PUSHES IN QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MILD DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.  45

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292048
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS MAINTAINING THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SETX THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND RADAR SHOWING
CU/TCU STRUGGLING TO FORM INTO SHOWERS. SHOULD ANY FORM THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A GROVETON TO CONROE TO WHARTON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT OF MUCH
IMPACT.

RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED TOWARD THE COAST
AND STILL ONLY 20-30 PERCENT. WARMER WEATHER BOTH TUE AND WED AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER ACTION SHOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE ARRIVING IN
THE CWA AND SWEEPING THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-60 PERCENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TO
700-1500 J/KG BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 800-700MB WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LOW AS WELL THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY...PROBABLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. DRY WEATHER PUSHES IN QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MILD DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
45

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 38



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292048
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS MAINTAINING THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SETX THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND RADAR SHOWING
CU/TCU STRUGGLING TO FORM INTO SHOWERS. SHOULD ANY FORM THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A GROVETON TO CONROE TO WHARTON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT OF MUCH
IMPACT.

RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED TOWARD THE COAST
AND STILL ONLY 20-30 PERCENT. WARMER WEATHER BOTH TUE AND WED AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER ACTION SHOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE ARRIVING IN
THE CWA AND SWEEPING THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-60 PERCENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TO
700-1500 J/KG BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 800-700MB WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LOW AS WELL THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY...PROBABLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. DRY WEATHER PUSHES IN QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MILD DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
45

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 38



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE NAM LOOKS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS
AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH MVFR VIS AT THE USUAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE TRANSITION INTO ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND WESTERN CONUS TROUGH FUNNEL UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM TS RACHEL IN THE E PACIFIC. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO THE FORECAST
AND UPDATES SENT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A GOOD DEAL OVER THE
NORTH WITH LOWER RH VALUES EXPECTED SO HAVE UPDATED THE FWF THIS
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES SURPASS 86-87 DEGREES BUT ONLY WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
PREVAILS AND THAT SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR TODAY.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD REFORM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE NAM LOOKS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW CLOUDS
AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH MVFR VIS AT THE USUAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WE TRANSITION INTO ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND WESTERN CONUS TROUGH FUNNEL UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM TS RACHEL IN THE E PACIFIC. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO THE FORECAST
AND UPDATES SENT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A GOOD DEAL OVER THE
NORTH WITH LOWER RH VALUES EXPECTED SO HAVE UPDATED THE FWF THIS
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES SURPASS 86-87 DEGREES BUT ONLY WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
PREVAILS AND THAT SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR TODAY.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD REFORM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291427
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
927 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO THE FORECAST
AND UPDATES SENT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A GOOD DEAL OVER THE
NORTH WITH LOWER RH VALUES EXPECTED SO HAVE UPDATED THE FWF THIS
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES SURPASS 86-87 DEGREES BUT ONLY WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
PREVAILS AND THAT SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR TODAY.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD REFORM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  70  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  71  90  73  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  76  84  77  84 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291427
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
927 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO THE FORECAST
AND UPDATES SENT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A GOOD DEAL OVER THE
NORTH WITH LOWER RH VALUES EXPECTED SO HAVE UPDATED THE FWF THIS
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES SURPASS 86-87 DEGREES BUT ONLY WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
PREVAILS AND THAT SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR TODAY.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD REFORM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  70  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  71  90  73  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  76  84  77  84 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291117
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR TODAY.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD REFORM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  70  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  71  90  73  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  76  84  77  84 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291117
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR TODAY.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD REFORM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  70  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  71  90  73  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  76  84  77  84 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290853
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

&&

.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  70  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  71  90  73  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  76  84  77  84 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290853
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

&&

.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  70  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  71  90  73  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  76  84  77  84 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290443
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS
NARROWING ACROSS THE MORE RURAL TAF SITES. WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS SUSPECT WE`LL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED 2-5NM FOG AT LBX/CXO & POSSIBLY SGR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THRU MON. A FEW EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR ANY
ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVNG CELLS THAT MANAGE TO POP UP ONCE TEMPS HIT
~87 OR SO. CONFIDENCE LOW IF ANY INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING OVER A
TAF SITE ARE LOW AND PROBABLY NOT WORTH MENTIONING ATTM. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR EVENING UPDATE, WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
DIMINISHING WEAK SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST, ALTHOUGH OVERALL POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
NRN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 48

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290443
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS
NARROWING ACROSS THE MORE RURAL TAF SITES. WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS SUSPECT WE`LL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED 2-5NM FOG AT LBX/CXO & POSSIBLY SGR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THRU MON. A FEW EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR ANY
ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVNG CELLS THAT MANAGE TO POP UP ONCE TEMPS HIT
~87 OR SO. CONFIDENCE LOW IF ANY INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING OVER A
TAF SITE ARE LOW AND PROBABLY NOT WORTH MENTIONING ATTM. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR EVENING UPDATE, WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
DIMINISHING WEAK SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST, ALTHOUGH OVERALL POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
NRN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 48

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR EVENING UPDATE, WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
DIMINISHING WEAK SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST, ALTHOUGH OVERALL POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
NRN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

48

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LIBERTY-HOUSTON-EDNA SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG AT THE USUAL SUSCEPTIBLE SITES LIKE CXO/LBX WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MEAGER CLOUDINESS PREVAILING. GENERALLY A REPEAT SCENARIO THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST SOME LATE AFTN & EARLY EVNG ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA CLOSER TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION W/ LINGERING
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING & SEABREEZE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUTINE SET OF TAFS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
HRRR STILL DOING THE BEST JOB AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND HAS NAILED THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
NEAR WHARTON AND COLUMBUS. SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HAVE WANED WITH SKIES PC AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 AT 2 PM. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST PER W/W AND
DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT STILL
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGHING EXPECT THE
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH OVER THE
GULF STORMS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AND MAY LINGER OVER
THE FAR COASTAL WATERS ALL NIGHT.

00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...ENOUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TREND OF LOW END ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO THIS
WEEK AND MAY SEE 90-92 DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND WARMER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE STATE BEFORE FLATTENING
WEDNESDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN U.S. AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z RUNS
STILL SHOWS VERY WARM NOSE 800-700MB AND MAY BE ENOUGH CAP TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOS POP NUMBERS FOR NOW BUT STILL WITH 30-40 PERCENT.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 45

MARINE...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WILL
NOT EXTEND THE SCEC FURTHER. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR EVENING UPDATE, WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
DIMINISHING WEAK SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST, ALTHOUGH OVERALL POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S
NRN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

48

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LIBERTY-HOUSTON-EDNA SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG AT THE USUAL SUSCEPTIBLE SITES LIKE CXO/LBX WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MEAGER CLOUDINESS PREVAILING. GENERALLY A REPEAT SCENARIO THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST SOME LATE AFTN & EARLY EVNG ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA CLOSER TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION W/ LINGERING
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING & SEABREEZE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUTINE SET OF TAFS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
HRRR STILL DOING THE BEST JOB AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND HAS NAILED THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
NEAR WHARTON AND COLUMBUS. SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HAVE WANED WITH SKIES PC AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 AT 2 PM. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST PER W/W AND
DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT STILL
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGHING EXPECT THE
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH OVER THE
GULF STORMS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AND MAY LINGER OVER
THE FAR COASTAL WATERS ALL NIGHT.

00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...ENOUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TREND OF LOW END ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO THIS
WEEK AND MAY SEE 90-92 DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND WARMER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE STATE BEFORE FLATTENING
WEDNESDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN U.S. AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z RUNS
STILL SHOWS VERY WARM NOSE 800-700MB AND MAY BE ENOUGH CAP TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOS POP NUMBERS FOR NOW BUT STILL WITH 30-40 PERCENT.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 45

MARINE...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WILL
NOT EXTEND THE SCEC FURTHER. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282319
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LIBERTY-HOUSTON-EDNA SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG AT THE USUAL SUSCEPTIBLE SITES LIKE CXO/LBX WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MEAGER CLOUDINESS PREVAILING. GENERALLY A REPEAT SCENARIO THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST SOME LATE AFTN & EARLY EVNG ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA CLOSER TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION W/ LINGERING
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING & SEABREEZE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUTINE SET OF TAFS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
HRRR STILL DOING THE BEST JOB AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND HAS NAILED THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
NEAR WHARTON AND COLUMBUS. SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HAVE WANED WITH SKIES PC AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 AT 2 PM. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST PER W/W AND
DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT STILL
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGHING EXPECT THE
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH OVER THE
GULF STORMS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AND MAY LINGER OVER
THE FAR COASTAL WATERS ALL NIGHT.

00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...ENOUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TREND OF LOW END ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO THIS
WEEK AND MAY SEE 90-92 DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND WARMER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE STATE BEFORE FLATTENING
WEDNESDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN U.S. AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z RUNS
STILL SHOWS VERY WARM NOSE 800-700MB AND MAY BE ENOUGH CAP TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOS POP NUMBERS FOR NOW BUT STILL WITH 30-40 PERCENT.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 45

MARINE...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WILL
NOT EXTEND THE SCEC FURTHER. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 282319
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LIBERTY-HOUSTON-EDNA SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG AT THE USUAL SUSCEPTIBLE SITES LIKE CXO/LBX WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MEAGER CLOUDINESS PREVAILING. GENERALLY A REPEAT SCENARIO THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST SOME LATE AFTN & EARLY EVNG ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA CLOSER TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION W/ LINGERING
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING & SEABREEZE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUTINE SET OF TAFS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
HRRR STILL DOING THE BEST JOB AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND HAS NAILED THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
NEAR WHARTON AND COLUMBUS. SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HAVE WANED WITH SKIES PC AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 AT 2 PM. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST PER W/W AND
DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT STILL
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGHING EXPECT THE
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH OVER THE
GULF STORMS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AND MAY LINGER OVER
THE FAR COASTAL WATERS ALL NIGHT.

00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...ENOUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TREND OF LOW END ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO THIS
WEEK AND MAY SEE 90-92 DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND WARMER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE STATE BEFORE FLATTENING
WEDNESDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN U.S. AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z RUNS
STILL SHOWS VERY WARM NOSE 800-700MB AND MAY BE ENOUGH CAP TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOS POP NUMBERS FOR NOW BUT STILL WITH 30-40 PERCENT.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 45

MARINE...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WILL
NOT EXTEND THE SCEC FURTHER. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282024
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR STILL DOING THE BEST JOB AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAS NAILED THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR
WHARTON AND COLUMBUS. SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAVE
WANED WITH SKIES PC AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
AT 2 PM. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST PER W/W AND
DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT STILL
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGHING EXPECT THE
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH OVER THE
GULF STORMS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AND MAY LINGER OVER
THE FAR COASTAL WATERS ALL NIGHT.

00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...ENOUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TREND OF LOW END ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO THIS
WEEK AND MAY SEE 90-92 DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND WARMER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE STATE BEFORE FLATTENING
WEDNESDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN U.S. AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z RUNS
STILL SHOWS VERY WARM NOSE 800-700MB AND MAY BE ENOUGH CAP TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOS POP NUMBERS FOR NOW BUT STILL WITH 30-40 PERCENT.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 45

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WILL
NOT EXTEND THE SCEC FURTHER.

38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282024
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR STILL DOING THE BEST JOB AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAS NAILED THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR
WHARTON AND COLUMBUS. SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAVE
WANED WITH SKIES PC AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
AT 2 PM. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST PER W/W AND
DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT STILL
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGHING EXPECT THE
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH OVER THE
GULF STORMS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AND MAY LINGER OVER
THE FAR COASTAL WATERS ALL NIGHT.

00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...ENOUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TREND OF LOW END ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO THIS
WEEK AND MAY SEE 90-92 DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND WARMER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE STATE BEFORE FLATTENING
WEDNESDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN U.S. AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z RUNS
STILL SHOWS VERY WARM NOSE 800-700MB AND MAY BE ENOUGH CAP TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOS POP NUMBERS FOR NOW BUT STILL WITH 30-40 PERCENT.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 45

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WILL
NOT EXTEND THE SCEC FURTHER.

38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





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