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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221205
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS THINKING. EXPECT THERE TO BE VERY
LITTLE TSRA COVERAGE IF ANY. HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS HINT AT
CONVECTION E/NE OF KIAH AND KHOU. PREVIOUS TAFS HAD VCTS AND SO
KEPT THAT IN CURRENT TAFS. SEEMS LIKE STORMS COULD AFFECT THESE
TERMINALS WITH STORM MOTIONS FROM THE NE. TIMING LOOKS TO STILL BE
20-23Z. WILL NOT MENTION CONVECTION ANYWHERE ELSE AT THIS TIME.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER SE TX EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WAS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PLAINS
INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR THE GA...AL...AND FL
BORDER. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR BPT TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN UTS AND LFK. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE
COAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT THE
SEABREEZE MAY HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO THAT BY THURSDAY THE LOW SHOULD BE SHEARING
OUT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE NAM12 AND ECWMF
BOTH INDICATE THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SE TX...
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION DOES PICK UP THE RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE NAM12 AND GFS ENSEMBLE...
DECIDED TO TWEAK THE RAIN CHANCES UP A BIT ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE RAIN FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BESIDES THE RAIN CHANCES...THE BIG ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX. BECAUSE OF THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS COMBINING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...
THE HEAT INDEX WILL PROBABLY REACH TO BETWEEN 102 AND 107 THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 108 TO 110. BECAUSE
THE CRITERIA FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IS TWO CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF A HEAT INDEX OF 108 OR MORE...WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
WHAT OCCURS TODAY. VALUES ON WEDNESDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS TODAY.

AFTER THE RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OVER AZ...NM...AND
WEST TEXAS OVER THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION OF UT...CO...NM...AND AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUT A VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY THE GFS TRIES TO WORK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF EXTENDS THE RIDGE OVER SE
TX INTO LOUISIANA. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND THE 100 DEGREE MARK MAY BE REACHED BY
MONDAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY.

40

MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO
DOMINATE CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME HEAT WITH ONSHORE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS TURN OFFSHORE BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AS LAND BREEZE
PUSHES OFFSHORE. 39

AVIATION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH DAY FORECASTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IF ANY DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT
AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION IN/NEAR HOUSTON TERMINALS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST TIMES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE 20-23Z
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY LOW. OVERALL SHOULD
HAVE VFR CIGS BUT MIGHT GET SOME MVFR CIGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  96  77  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 221205
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS THINKING. EXPECT THERE TO BE VERY
LITTLE TSRA COVERAGE IF ANY. HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS HINT AT
CONVECTION E/NE OF KIAH AND KHOU. PREVIOUS TAFS HAD VCTS AND SO
KEPT THAT IN CURRENT TAFS. SEEMS LIKE STORMS COULD AFFECT THESE
TERMINALS WITH STORM MOTIONS FROM THE NE. TIMING LOOKS TO STILL BE
20-23Z. WILL NOT MENTION CONVECTION ANYWHERE ELSE AT THIS TIME.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER SE TX EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WAS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PLAINS
INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR THE GA...AL...AND FL
BORDER. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR BPT TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN UTS AND LFK. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE
COAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT THE
SEABREEZE MAY HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO THAT BY THURSDAY THE LOW SHOULD BE SHEARING
OUT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE NAM12 AND ECWMF
BOTH INDICATE THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SE TX...
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION DOES PICK UP THE RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE NAM12 AND GFS ENSEMBLE...
DECIDED TO TWEAK THE RAIN CHANCES UP A BIT ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE RAIN FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BESIDES THE RAIN CHANCES...THE BIG ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX. BECAUSE OF THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS COMBINING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...
THE HEAT INDEX WILL PROBABLY REACH TO BETWEEN 102 AND 107 THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 108 TO 110. BECAUSE
THE CRITERIA FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IS TWO CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF A HEAT INDEX OF 108 OR MORE...WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
WHAT OCCURS TODAY. VALUES ON WEDNESDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS TODAY.

AFTER THE RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OVER AZ...NM...AND
WEST TEXAS OVER THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION OF UT...CO...NM...AND AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUT A VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY THE GFS TRIES TO WORK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF EXTENDS THE RIDGE OVER SE
TX INTO LOUISIANA. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND THE 100 DEGREE MARK MAY BE REACHED BY
MONDAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY.

40

MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO
DOMINATE CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME HEAT WITH ONSHORE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS TURN OFFSHORE BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AS LAND BREEZE
PUSHES OFFSHORE. 39

AVIATION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH DAY FORECASTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IF ANY DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT
AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION IN/NEAR HOUSTON TERMINALS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST TIMES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE 20-23Z
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY LOW. OVERALL SHOULD
HAVE VFR CIGS BUT MIGHT GET SOME MVFR CIGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  96  77  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221006
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER SE TX EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WAS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PLAINS
INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR THE GA...AL...AND FL
BORDER. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR BPT TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN UTS AND LFK. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE
COAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT THE
SEABREEZE MAY HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO THAT BY THURSDAY THE LOW SHOULD BE SHEARING
OUT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE NAM12 AND ECWMF
BOTH INDICATE THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SE TX...
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION DOES PICK UP THE RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE NAM12 AND GFS ENSEMBLE...
DECIDED TO TWEAK THE RAIN CHANCES UP A BIT ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE RAIN FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BESIDES THE RAIN CHANCES...THE BIG ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX. BECAUSE OF THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS COMBINING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...
THE HEAT INDEX WILL PROBABLY REACH TO BETWEEN 102 AND 107 THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 108 TO 110. BECAUSE
THE CRITERIA FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IS TWO CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF A HEAT INDEX OF 108 OR MORE...WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
WHAT OCCURS TODAY. VALUES ON WEDNESDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS TODAY.

AFTER THE RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OVER AZ...NM...AND
WEST TEXAS OVER THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION OF UT...CO...NM...AND AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUT A VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY THE GFS TRIES TO WORK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF EXTENDS THE RIDGE OVER SE
TX INTO LOUISIANA. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND THE 100 DEGREE MARK MAY BE REACHED BY
MONDAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO
DOMINATE CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME HEAT WITH ONSHORE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS TURN OFFSHORE BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AS LAND BREEZE
PUSHES OFFSHORE. 39

&&

.AVIATION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH DAY FORECASTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IF ANY DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT
AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION IN/NEAR HOUSTON TERMINALS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST TIMES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE 20-23Z
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY LOW. OVERALL SHOULD
HAVE VFR CIGS BUT MIGHT GET SOME MVFR CIGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  96  77  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221006
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER SE TX EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WAS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PLAINS
INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR THE GA...AL...AND FL
BORDER. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR BPT TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN UTS AND LFK. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE
COAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT THE
SEABREEZE MAY HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO THAT BY THURSDAY THE LOW SHOULD BE SHEARING
OUT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE NAM12 AND ECWMF
BOTH INDICATE THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SE TX...
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION DOES PICK UP THE RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE NAM12 AND GFS ENSEMBLE...
DECIDED TO TWEAK THE RAIN CHANCES UP A BIT ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE RAIN FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

BESIDES THE RAIN CHANCES...THE BIG ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX. BECAUSE OF THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS COMBINING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...
THE HEAT INDEX WILL PROBABLY REACH TO BETWEEN 102 AND 107 THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 108 TO 110. BECAUSE
THE CRITERIA FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IS TWO CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF A HEAT INDEX OF 108 OR MORE...WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
WHAT OCCURS TODAY. VALUES ON WEDNESDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS TODAY.

AFTER THE RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OVER AZ...NM...AND
WEST TEXAS OVER THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION OF UT...CO...NM...AND AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUT A VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY THE GFS TRIES TO WORK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF EXTENDS THE RIDGE OVER SE
TX INTO LOUISIANA. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND THE 100 DEGREE MARK MAY BE REACHED BY
MONDAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO
DOMINATE CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME HEAT WITH ONSHORE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WINDS TURN OFFSHORE BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AS LAND BREEZE
PUSHES OFFSHORE. 39

&&

.AVIATION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH DAY FORECASTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IF ANY DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT
AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION IN/NEAR HOUSTON TERMINALS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST TIMES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE 20-23Z
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY LOW. OVERALL SHOULD
HAVE VFR CIGS BUT MIGHT GET SOME MVFR CIGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  75  97  75  97 /  10  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  96  77  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MADE FEW CHANGES TO TAFS. AIR MASS VERY HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE MOMENT. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY WOULDNT BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...AS CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
24 HOURS AGO. CONTINUE TO PLAY THE TAFS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. NOT
OUT OF QUESTION COULD SEE FEW SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS HINTED AT BY RAPID REFRESH. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT AGAIN MAINLY OVER COASTAL TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT INTO SHORT TERM TRENDS.
DID LIFT THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION UP
FROM SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. THE BETTER PERFORMING ARW-WRF WAS WHAT
WAS CONSIDERED WHEN PAINTING POPS AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
AND THOSE POINTS A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. DESPITE OVERALL REGIONAL
SUBSIDENCE CREATED BY THE GARGANTUAN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN TEXAS...SIMILAR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES LEAN
THIS FORECAST TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH RELATION TO TOMORROW`S
SHRA/ISO TS PROBABILITIES. A BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD OF GREATER
THAN 103F HEAT INDICES AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S OVER LOW-MID 70 DEW POINTS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED PAST HOUR OR
SO ALTHOUGH ONE SHOWER HAS JUST DEVELOPED IN VCNTY OF KSGR ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MIX UP BRIEFLY TO AN
MVFR CEILING AFTER SUNRISE AS IT DID THIS MORNING FEW SPOTS. NMM
AND ARW WRF RUNS SHOW FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND HOUSTON AND GALVESTON BAY...MUCH AS TODAY.

AM TREATING TAF FORECAST FAIRLY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH A PERIOD
OF FOG WHERE IT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS LIKEWISE WHERE THIS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. WILL GO WITH VCTS
ONLY FOR HOU AND IAH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY BASED ON
PERSISTENCE BUT ALSO THESE MESOSCALE RUNS. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BAY/SEA BREEZE NEAR GALVESTON BAY ALTHOUGH ALL ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. ONLY A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR GREATER AND THESE APPEAR TO BE
UNREPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THEIR HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS
IN MIND NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY AS WE SHOULD NOT
MEET THE TWO DAY 108 REQUIREMENT.

THE 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR TOMORROW AND
WILL EXPAND POPS SLIGHTLY INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR GALVESTON BAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT IT
TO 20 POPS AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS NOW BRINGS THE UPPER WEAKNESS CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND SHUNTS
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN RISING TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY WITH HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN WE MAY BE DISCUSSING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING/DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PUSHES A FRONT AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT
TUESDAY. AS NICE AS THIS WOULD BE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL
RETAIN A FAIR BIT OF SKEPTICISM UNTIL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. 38/JB

MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THIS WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER SPEED MAX
DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING NOSES BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 45

AVIATION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...VFR ACROSS THE AREA AND CAP HOLDING STRONG UP
NORTH FOR IAH AREA NORTHWARD. SO WILL DROP THE VCTS FOR IAH BUT WILL
KEEP IT FOR HOU SOUTHWARD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  98  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  96  77  95  77 /  20  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MADE FEW CHANGES TO TAFS. AIR MASS VERY HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE MOMENT. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY WOULDNT BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...AS CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
24 HOURS AGO. CONTINUE TO PLAY THE TAFS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. NOT
OUT OF QUESTION COULD SEE FEW SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS HINTED AT BY RAPID REFRESH. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT AGAIN MAINLY OVER COASTAL TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT INTO SHORT TERM TRENDS.
DID LIFT THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION UP
FROM SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. THE BETTER PERFORMING ARW-WRF WAS WHAT
WAS CONSIDERED WHEN PAINTING POPS AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
AND THOSE POINTS A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. DESPITE OVERALL REGIONAL
SUBSIDENCE CREATED BY THE GARGANTUAN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN TEXAS...SIMILAR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES LEAN
THIS FORECAST TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH RELATION TO TOMORROW`S
SHRA/ISO TS PROBABILITIES. A BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD OF GREATER
THAN 103F HEAT INDICES AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S OVER LOW-MID 70 DEW POINTS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED PAST HOUR OR
SO ALTHOUGH ONE SHOWER HAS JUST DEVELOPED IN VCNTY OF KSGR ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MIX UP BRIEFLY TO AN
MVFR CEILING AFTER SUNRISE AS IT DID THIS MORNING FEW SPOTS. NMM
AND ARW WRF RUNS SHOW FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND HOUSTON AND GALVESTON BAY...MUCH AS TODAY.

AM TREATING TAF FORECAST FAIRLY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH A PERIOD
OF FOG WHERE IT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS LIKEWISE WHERE THIS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. WILL GO WITH VCTS
ONLY FOR HOU AND IAH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY BASED ON
PERSISTENCE BUT ALSO THESE MESOSCALE RUNS. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BAY/SEA BREEZE NEAR GALVESTON BAY ALTHOUGH ALL ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. ONLY A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR GREATER AND THESE APPEAR TO BE
UNREPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THEIR HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS
IN MIND NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY AS WE SHOULD NOT
MEET THE TWO DAY 108 REQUIREMENT.

THE 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR TOMORROW AND
WILL EXPAND POPS SLIGHTLY INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR GALVESTON BAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT IT
TO 20 POPS AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS NOW BRINGS THE UPPER WEAKNESS CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND SHUNTS
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN RISING TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY WITH HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN WE MAY BE DISCUSSING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING/DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PUSHES A FRONT AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT
TUESDAY. AS NICE AS THIS WOULD BE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL
RETAIN A FAIR BIT OF SKEPTICISM UNTIL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. 38/JB

MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THIS WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER SPEED MAX
DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING NOSES BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 45

AVIATION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...VFR ACROSS THE AREA AND CAP HOLDING STRONG UP
NORTH FOR IAH AREA NORTHWARD. SO WILL DROP THE VCTS FOR IAH BUT WILL
KEEP IT FOR HOU SOUTHWARD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  98  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  96  77  95  77 /  20  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220212
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TWEAKED GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT INTO SHORT TERM TRENDS.
DID LIFT THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION UP
FROM SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. THE BETTER PERFORMING ARW-WRF WAS WHAT
WAS CONSIDERED WHEN PAINTING POPS AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
AND THOSE POINTS A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. DESPITE OVERALL REGIONAL
SUBSIDENCE CREATED BY THE GARGANTUAN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN TEXAS...SIMILAR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES LEAN
THIS FORECAST TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH RELATION TO TOMORROW`S
SHRA/ISO TS PROBABILITIES. A BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD OF GREATER
THAN 103F HEAT INDICES AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S OVER LOW-MID 70 DEW POINTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED PAST HOUR OR
SO ALTHOUGH ONE SHOWER HAS JUST DEVELOPED IN VCNTY OF KSGR ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MIX UP BRIEFLY TO AN
MVFR CEILING AFTER SUNRISE AS IT DID THIS MORNING FEW SPOTS. NMM
AND ARW WRF RUNS SHOW FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND HOUSTON AND GALVESTON BAY...MUCH AS TODAY.

AM TREATING TAF FORECAST FAIRLY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH A PERIOD
OF FOG WHERE IT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS LIKEWISE WHERE THIS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. WILL GO WITH VCTS
ONLY FOR HOU AND IAH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY BASED ON
PERSISTENCE BUT ALSO THESE MESOSCALE RUNS. 46

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BAY/SEA BREEZE NEAR GALVESTON BAY ALTHOUGH ALL ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. ONLY A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR GREATER AND THESE APPEAR TO BE
UNREPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THEIR HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS
IN MIND NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY AS WE SHOULD NOT
MEET THE TWO DAY 108 REQUIREMENT.

THE 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR TOMORROW AND
WILL EXPAND POPS SLIGHTLY INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR GALVESTON BAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT IT
TO 20 POPS AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS NOW BRINGS THE UPPER WEAKNESS CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND SHUNTS
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN RISING TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY WITH HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN WE MAY BE DISCUSSING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING/DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PUSHES A FRONT AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT
TUESDAY. AS NICE AS THIS WOULD BE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL
RETAIN A FAIR BIT OF SKEPTICISM UNTIL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. 38/JB

&&

MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THIS WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER SPEED MAX
DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING NOSES BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 45

&&

AVIATION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...VFR ACROSS THE AREA AND CAP HOLDING STRONG UP
NORTH FOR IAH AREA NORTHWARD. SO WILL DROP THE VCTS FOR IAH BUT WILL
KEEP IT FOR HOU SOUTHWARD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  98  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  96  77  95  77 /  20  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/46




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220212
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TWEAKED GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT INTO SHORT TERM TRENDS.
DID LIFT THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION UP
FROM SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. THE BETTER PERFORMING ARW-WRF WAS WHAT
WAS CONSIDERED WHEN PAINTING POPS AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
AND THOSE POINTS A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. DESPITE OVERALL REGIONAL
SUBSIDENCE CREATED BY THE GARGANTUAN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN TEXAS...SIMILAR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES LEAN
THIS FORECAST TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH RELATION TO TOMORROW`S
SHRA/ISO TS PROBABILITIES. A BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD OF GREATER
THAN 103F HEAT INDICES AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S OVER LOW-MID 70 DEW POINTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED PAST HOUR OR
SO ALTHOUGH ONE SHOWER HAS JUST DEVELOPED IN VCNTY OF KSGR ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MIX UP BRIEFLY TO AN
MVFR CEILING AFTER SUNRISE AS IT DID THIS MORNING FEW SPOTS. NMM
AND ARW WRF RUNS SHOW FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND HOUSTON AND GALVESTON BAY...MUCH AS TODAY.

AM TREATING TAF FORECAST FAIRLY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH A PERIOD
OF FOG WHERE IT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS LIKEWISE WHERE THIS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. WILL GO WITH VCTS
ONLY FOR HOU AND IAH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY BASED ON
PERSISTENCE BUT ALSO THESE MESOSCALE RUNS. 46

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BAY/SEA BREEZE NEAR GALVESTON BAY ALTHOUGH ALL ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. ONLY A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR GREATER AND THESE APPEAR TO BE
UNREPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THEIR HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS
IN MIND NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY AS WE SHOULD NOT
MEET THE TWO DAY 108 REQUIREMENT.

THE 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR TOMORROW AND
WILL EXPAND POPS SLIGHTLY INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR GALVESTON BAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT IT
TO 20 POPS AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS NOW BRINGS THE UPPER WEAKNESS CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND SHUNTS
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN RISING TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY WITH HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN WE MAY BE DISCUSSING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING/DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PUSHES A FRONT AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT
TUESDAY. AS NICE AS THIS WOULD BE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL
RETAIN A FAIR BIT OF SKEPTICISM UNTIL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. 38/JB

&&

MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THIS WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER SPEED MAX
DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES LINGER
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING NOSES BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 45

&&

AVIATION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...VFR ACROSS THE AREA AND CAP HOLDING STRONG UP
NORTH FOR IAH AREA NORTHWARD. SO WILL DROP THE VCTS FOR IAH BUT WILL
KEEP IT FOR HOU SOUTHWARD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  98  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  96  77  95  77 /  20  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/46





000
FXUS64 KHGX 212355
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED PAST HOUR OR
SO ALTHOUGH ONE SHOWER HAS JUST DEVELOPED IN VCNTY OF KSGR ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MIX UP BRIEFLY TO AN
MVFR CEILING AFTER SUNRISE AS IT DID THIS MORNING FEW SPOTS. NMM
AND ARW WRF RUNS SHOW FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND HOUSTON AND GALVESTON BAY...MUCH AS TODAY.

AM TREATING TAF FORECAST FAIRLY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH A PERIOD
OF FOG WHERE IT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS LIKEWISE WHERE THIS HAPPENNED LAST NIGHT. WILL GO WITH VCTS
ONLY FOR HOU AND IAH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN MAINLY BASED ON
PERSISTENCE BUT ALSO THESE MESOSCALE RUNS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BAY/SEA BREEZE NEAR GALVESTON BAY ALTHOUGH ALL ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. ONLY A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR GREATER AND THESE APPEAR TO BE
UNREPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THEIR HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS
IN MIND NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY AS WE SHOULD NOT
MEET THE TWO DAY 108 REQUIREMENT.

THE 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR TOMORROW AND
WILL EXPAND POPS SLIGHTLY INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR GALVESTON BAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT IT
TO 20 POPS AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS NOW BRINGS THE UPPER WEAKNESS CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND SHUNTS
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN RISING TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY WITH HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN WE MAY BE DISCUSSING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING/DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PUSHES A FRONT AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT
TUESDAY. AS NICE AS THIS WOULD BE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL
RETAIN A FAIR BIT OF SKEPTICISM UNTIL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. 38/JB

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER SPEED MAX DROPS SOUTH
ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES LINGER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE UPPER RIDGING NOSES BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

45

AVIATION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...VFR ACROSS THE AREA AND CAP HOLDING STRONG UP
NORTH FOR IAH AREA NORTHWARD. SO WILL DROP THE VCTS FOR IAH BUT WILL
KEEP IT FOR HOU SOUTHWARD.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  98  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  77  95  77 /  10  20  10  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  81 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 212036
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BAY/SEA BREEZE NEAR GALVESTON BAY ALTHOUGH ALL ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. ONLY A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR GREATER AND THESE APPEAR TO BE
UNREPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THEIR HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS
IN MIND NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY AS WE SHOULD NOT
MEET THE TWO DAY 108 REQUIREMENT.

THE 12Z GFS/NAM RUNS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR TOMORROW AND
WILL EXPAND POPS SLIGHTLY INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR GALVESTON BAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT IT
TO 20 POPS AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS NOW BRINGS THE UPPER WEAKNESS CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND SHUNTS
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN RISING TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY WITH HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN WE MAY BE DISCUSSING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING/DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PUSHES A FRONT AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT
TUESDAY. AS NICE AS THIS WOULD BE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL
RETAIN A FAIR BIT OF SKEPTICISM UNTIL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. 38/JB

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER SPEED MAX DROPS SOUTH
ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES LINGER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE UPPER RIDGING NOSES BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...VFR ACROSS THE AREA AND CAP HOLDING STRONG UP
NORTH FOR IAH AREA NORTHWARD. SO WILL DROP THE VCTS FOR IAH BUT WILL
KEEP IT FOR HOU SOUTHWARD.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  98  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  77  95  77 /  10  20  10  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  81 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211842
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
142 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS WITH A WIDESPREAD SHALLOW CU FIELD.
SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOPING AND HELPED WITH THE STORM NEAR TEXAS
CITY THAT HAD NUMEROUS FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS
THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE AND HEATING TEMPERATURES SOAR IN THE MID
90S EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO SURGE INLAND AND WINDS TO RESPOND WITH
INCREASING S TO SE TO ESE WINDS FOR HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS. CAP
IS BREAKABLE AROUND 93-94 DEGREES SO HAVE KEPT A SHORT VCTS IN FOR
HOU/IAH/SGR AREAS 20-22-23Z. LOCAL WRF ALSO SHOWS A STORM
DEVELOPING NORTH OF HOU DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AROUND 21-22Z. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT SKIES CLEAR OUT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG MAINLY 3-5SM RANGE FOR THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

SPEEDMAX DROPPING SOUTH TOMORROW HAS TRENDED WEST IN 12Z RUNS AND
IF THIS CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUNS THIS MAY REQUIRE THE ADDITION
OF VCTS FOR ISOLATED TSRA AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE
CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR TERMINALS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  91 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211842
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
142 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS WITH A WIDESPREAD SHALLOW CU FIELD.
SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOPING AND HELPED WITH THE STORM NEAR TEXAS
CITY THAT HAD NUMEROUS FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS
THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE AND HEATING TEMPERATURES SOAR IN THE MID
90S EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO SURGE INLAND AND WINDS TO RESPOND WITH
INCREASING S TO SE TO ESE WINDS FOR HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS. CAP
IS BREAKABLE AROUND 93-94 DEGREES SO HAVE KEPT A SHORT VCTS IN FOR
HOU/IAH/SGR AREAS 20-22-23Z. LOCAL WRF ALSO SHOWS A STORM
DEVELOPING NORTH OF HOU DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AROUND 21-22Z. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT SKIES CLEAR OUT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG MAINLY 3-5SM RANGE FOR THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

SPEEDMAX DROPPING SOUTH TOMORROW HAS TRENDED WEST IN 12Z RUNS AND
IF THIS CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUNS THIS MAY REQUIRE THE ADDITION
OF VCTS FOR ISOLATED TSRA AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE
CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR TERMINALS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  91 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A HUMID START TO THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE. SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
POINT TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN BORDER
STRETCHING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CROCKETT
AND CORSICANA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OF GREATER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. GIVEN THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT...ALLOWING HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US 59/I 10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PERSONS WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AGAINST HEAT RELATED INJURIES. 38

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING
BUT WITH DEVELOPMENT NEAR HIGH ISLAND. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT FROM
AROUND BPT TO LFK TO LIFT NORTH AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. SHOWERS
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AROUND NOON OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AND CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS SETX SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT AND LIFTING NORTHEAST SO THAT FOCUS CAN MOST
LIKELY BE REMOVED FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN. 700MB TEMPS ARE
QUITE WARM AT 10-12C AND 850MB TEMPS 19-20C SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
ISOLATED AT BEST. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY
CXO NORTHWARD.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  91 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A HUMID START TO THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE. SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
POINT TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN BORDER
STRETCHING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CROCKETT
AND CORSICANA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OF GREATER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. GIVEN THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT...ALLOWING HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US 59/I 10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PERSONS WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AGAINST HEAT RELATED INJURIES. 38

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING
BUT WITH DEVELOPMENT NEAR HIGH ISLAND. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT FROM
AROUND BPT TO LFK TO LIFT NORTH AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. SHOWERS
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AROUND NOON OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED AND CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS SETX SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT AND LIFTING NORTHEAST SO THAT FOCUS CAN MOST
LIKELY BE REMOVED FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN. 700MB TEMPS ARE
QUITE WARM AT 10-12C AND 850MB TEMPS 19-20C SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
ISOLATED AT BEST. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY
CXO NORTHWARD.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  91 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211115
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
615 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
AT 11Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE SABINE TO
EAST OF KLFK. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER SE
TX WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS
LIMITED TO NEAR THE SURFACE. DO NOT THINK SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
INLAND TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME MAY GET CLOSE
TO KUTS OR KCXO. KGLS MAY SEE AT LEAST VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH
18Z.

THE MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IF THE SEABREEZE CAN GET
ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AROUND THE METRO HOUSTON AIRPORTS...
INCLUDING KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR.

THE MODELS WERE ALSO HINTING AT THE CHANCE FOR MVFR DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE INLAND SITES
OUTSIDE OF THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAK AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S. A
WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY
EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE. AT 850 MB...DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED
FROM DALLAS TO LAKE CHARLES WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
KCLL TO GALVESTON BAY. AT 700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR
EL PASO WITH A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SW LOUISIANA.
THE TROUGH IS IMPINGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT
BLOCKING THE RIDGES EASTWARD EXTENT. AT 250 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WAS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WEAKLY
DIVERGENT OVER SE TEXAS.

THE MOISTURE AT 850 MB COUPLED WITH THE WEAK 850 TROUGH AND THE
BROADLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT COVERAGE SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS FOR MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS TODAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AS SFC DEW POINTS
NEVER REALLY MIX OUT. TODAY WILL START OUT WARM AND MAX TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108 WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS FROM EDNA TO
ANGLETON FLIRTING WITH 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DANGEROUS HEAT AND CONSIDERING THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN COOL BY TEXAS
STANDARDS...TODAYS HEAT COULD COME AS A BIT OF A SHOCK.

ON TUESDAY...850 MB MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT SO THERE WILL BE A
BIT MORE DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LOWER A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SO WILL AGAIN CARRY 20 POPS
EAST OF I-45. A WEAKNESS ALOFT PUSHES WEST ON WED/THU BUT NEVER
QUITE GETS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.
STILL...LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM SO
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER...DID NOT LOWER TEMPS MUCH. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND BUILDS INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH 500 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 596 DM BY SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S. NOT MUCH RELIEF EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 102-106 DEGREES...BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT STILL PLENTY OPPRESSIVE. 43

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. NO CAUTION OR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  91 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211115
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
615 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
AT 11Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE SABINE TO
EAST OF KLFK. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER SE
TX WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS
LIMITED TO NEAR THE SURFACE. DO NOT THINK SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
INLAND TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME MAY GET CLOSE
TO KUTS OR KCXO. KGLS MAY SEE AT LEAST VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH
18Z.

THE MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IF THE SEABREEZE CAN GET
ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AROUND THE METRO HOUSTON AIRPORTS...
INCLUDING KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR.

THE MODELS WERE ALSO HINTING AT THE CHANCE FOR MVFR DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE INLAND SITES
OUTSIDE OF THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAK AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S. A
WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY
EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE. AT 850 MB...DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED
FROM DALLAS TO LAKE CHARLES WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
KCLL TO GALVESTON BAY. AT 700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR
EL PASO WITH A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SW LOUISIANA.
THE TROUGH IS IMPINGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT
BLOCKING THE RIDGES EASTWARD EXTENT. AT 250 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WAS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WEAKLY
DIVERGENT OVER SE TEXAS.

THE MOISTURE AT 850 MB COUPLED WITH THE WEAK 850 TROUGH AND THE
BROADLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT COVERAGE SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS FOR MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS TODAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AS SFC DEW POINTS
NEVER REALLY MIX OUT. TODAY WILL START OUT WARM AND MAX TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108 WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS FROM EDNA TO
ANGLETON FLIRTING WITH 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DANGEROUS HEAT AND CONSIDERING THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN COOL BY TEXAS
STANDARDS...TODAYS HEAT COULD COME AS A BIT OF A SHOCK.

ON TUESDAY...850 MB MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT SO THERE WILL BE A
BIT MORE DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LOWER A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SO WILL AGAIN CARRY 20 POPS
EAST OF I-45. A WEAKNESS ALOFT PUSHES WEST ON WED/THU BUT NEVER
QUITE GETS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.
STILL...LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM SO
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER...DID NOT LOWER TEMPS MUCH. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND BUILDS INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH 500 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 596 DM BY SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S. NOT MUCH RELIEF EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 102-106 DEGREES...BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT STILL PLENTY OPPRESSIVE. 43

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. NO CAUTION OR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  91 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210900
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAK AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S. A
WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY
EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE. AT 850 MB...DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED
FROM DALLAS TO LAKE CHARLES WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
KCLL TO GALVESTON BAY. AT 700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR
EL PASO WITH A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SW LOUISIANA.
THE TROUGH IS IMPINGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT
BLOCKING THE RIDGES EASTWARD EXTENT. AT 250 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WAS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WEAKLY
DIVERGENT SE TEXAS.

THE MOISTURE AT 850 MB COUPLED WITH THE WEAK 850 TROUGH AND THE
BROADLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT COVERAGE SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS FOR MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS TODAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AS SFC DEW POINTS
NEVER REALLY MIX OUT. TODAY WILL START OUT WARM AND MAX TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108 WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS FROM EDNA TO
ANGLETON FLIRTING WITH 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DANGEROUS HEAT AND CONSIDERING THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN COOL BY TEXAS
STANDARDS...TODAYS HEAT COULD COME AS A BIT OF A SHOCK.

ON TUESDAY...850 MB MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT SO THERE WILL BE A
BIT MORE DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LOWER A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SO WILL AGAIN CARRY 20 POPS
EAST OF I-45. A WEAKNESS ALOFT PUSHES WEST ON WED/THU BUT NEVER
QUITE GETS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.
STILL...LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM SO
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER...DID NOT LOWER TEMPS MUCH. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND BUILDS INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH 500 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 596 DM BY SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S. NOT MUCH RELIEF EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 102-106 DEGREES...BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT STILL PLENTY OPPRESSIVE. 43

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. NO CAUTION OR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  91 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 210900
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAK AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S. A
WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY
EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE. AT 850 MB...DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED
FROM DALLAS TO LAKE CHARLES WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
KCLL TO GALVESTON BAY. AT 700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR
EL PASO WITH A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SW LOUISIANA.
THE TROUGH IS IMPINGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT
BLOCKING THE RIDGES EASTWARD EXTENT. AT 250 MB...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WAS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WEAKLY
DIVERGENT SE TEXAS.

THE MOISTURE AT 850 MB COUPLED WITH THE WEAK 850 TROUGH AND THE
BROADLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT COVERAGE SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS FOR MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS TODAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AS SFC DEW POINTS
NEVER REALLY MIX OUT. TODAY WILL START OUT WARM AND MAX TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108 WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS FROM EDNA TO
ANGLETON FLIRTING WITH 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DANGEROUS HEAT AND CONSIDERING THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN COOL BY TEXAS
STANDARDS...TODAYS HEAT COULD COME AS A BIT OF A SHOCK.

ON TUESDAY...850 MB MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT SO THERE WILL BE A
BIT MORE DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LOWER A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SO WILL AGAIN CARRY 20 POPS
EAST OF I-45. A WEAKNESS ALOFT PUSHES WEST ON WED/THU BUT NEVER
QUITE GETS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.
STILL...LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM SO
DESPITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER...DID NOT LOWER TEMPS MUCH. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND BUILDS INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH 500 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 596 DM BY SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S. NOT MUCH RELIEF EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 102-106 DEGREES...BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT STILL PLENTY OPPRESSIVE. 43

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. NO CAUTION OR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  98  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  91 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO IMMEDIATE CHANGE TO EARLIER PACKAGE. THE ONLY MENTIONABLE
CHANGE WAS TO ADD IN AFTERNOON PROB30`S FOR -TSRA FROM METRO
SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
IN INHIBITING MONDAY CONVECTION...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH LL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE NEAR COASTAL AIR MASS TO PLACE IN THAT
SLIGHT CHANGE OF CONVECTION FORMING ON THE LOCAL BREEZES (ONCE
THE LOWER 90S ARE MET). CONFIDENCE OF SOUTHERN THIRD HUBS EXPERIENCING
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON -SHRA OR -TSRA IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED SKY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. ALSO TOOK OUT SMALL AREA OF EVENING SHOWERS THAT WERE
INSERTED EARLIER BASED ON OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE MAINLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE
OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING VERY LATE AT THE COAST AS
THEY DID LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...HEAT
INDICES GETTING CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD NEED HEAT
INDEX OF 108 FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY. NO
MATTER WHAT THE NUMBERS TURN OUT TO BE...WILL BE LOOKING AT HOT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LBX AND SGR`S VICINITY DYING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. RETURN SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ROUGE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS...BUT TOO LOW
OF A CHANCE AND TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION WITHIN THIS PACKAGE.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A CALM WIND FIELD AND
CLEARER OVERNIGHT SKIES...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HUBS TO BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION MVFR IS COMMUNICATED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TEMPOS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO IMMEDIATE CHANGE TO EARLIER PACKAGE. THE ONLY MENTIONABLE
CHANGE WAS TO ADD IN AFTERNOON PROB30`S FOR -TSRA FROM METRO
SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
IN INHIBITING MONDAY CONVECTION...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH LL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE NEAR COASTAL AIR MASS TO PLACE IN THAT
SLIGHT CHANGE OF CONVECTION FORMING ON THE LOCAL BREEZES (ONCE
THE LOWER 90S ARE MET). CONFIDENCE OF SOUTHERN THIRD HUBS EXPERIENCING
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON -SHRA OR -TSRA IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED SKY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. ALSO TOOK OUT SMALL AREA OF EVENING SHOWERS THAT WERE
INSERTED EARLIER BASED ON OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE MAINLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE
OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING VERY LATE AT THE COAST AS
THEY DID LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...HEAT
INDICES GETTING CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD NEED HEAT
INDEX OF 108 FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY. NO
MATTER WHAT THE NUMBERS TURN OUT TO BE...WILL BE LOOKING AT HOT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LBX AND SGR`S VICINITY DYING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. RETURN SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ROUGE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS...BUT TOO LOW
OF A CHANCE AND TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION WITHIN THIS PACKAGE.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A CALM WIND FIELD AND
CLEARER OVERNIGHT SKIES...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HUBS TO BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION MVFR IS COMMUNICATED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TEMPOS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 210255
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED SKY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. ALSO TOOK OUT SMALL AREA OF EVENING SHOWERS THAT WERE
INSERTED EARLIER BASED ON OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE MAINLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE
OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING VERY LATE AT THE COAST AS
THEY DID LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...HEAT
INDICES GETTING CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD NEED HEAT
INDEX OF 108 FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY. NO
MATTER WHAT THE NUMBERS TURN OUT TO BE...WILL BE LOOKING AT HOT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LBX AND SGR`S VICINITY DYING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. RETURN SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ROUGE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS...BUT TOO LOW
OF A CHANCE AND TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION WITHIN THIS PACKAGE.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A CALM WIND FIELD AND
CLEARER OVERNIGHT SKIES...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HUBS TO BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION MVFR IS COMMUNICATED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TEMPOS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210255
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED SKY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. ALSO TOOK OUT SMALL AREA OF EVENING SHOWERS THAT WERE
INSERTED EARLIER BASED ON OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE MAINLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE
OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING VERY LATE AT THE COAST AS
THEY DID LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...HEAT
INDICES GETTING CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD NEED HEAT
INDEX OF 108 FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY. NO
MATTER WHAT THE NUMBERS TURN OUT TO BE...WILL BE LOOKING AT HOT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LBX AND SGR`S VICINITY DYING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. RETURN SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ROUGE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS...BUT TOO LOW
OF A CHANCE AND TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION WITHIN THIS PACKAGE.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A CALM WIND FIELD AND
CLEARER OVERNIGHT SKIES...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HUBS TO BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION MVFR IS COMMUNICATED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TEMPOS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 210000
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LBX AND SGR`S VICINITY DYING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. RETURN SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ROUGE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS...BUT TOO LOW
OF A CHANCE AND TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION WITHIN THIS PACKAGE.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A CALM WIND FIELD AND
CLEARER OVERNIGHT SKIES...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HUBS TO BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION MVFR IS COMMUNICATED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TEMPOS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210000
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LBX AND SGR`S VICINITY DYING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. RETURN SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ROUGE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS...BUT TOO LOW
OF A CHANCE AND TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION WITHIN THIS PACKAGE.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A CALM WIND FIELD AND
CLEARER OVERNIGHT SKIES...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HUBS TO BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION MVFR IS COMMUNICATED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TEMPOS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 202028
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEARLY STATIONARY WITH CIGS BACK UP
INTO VFR ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. WEAK SFC RIDGING CAN BE SEEN
IN THE WINDFIELD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT IAH/BPT WHILE WINDS AT
PSX/LBX ARE SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE SEABREEZE. STRONG ENOUGH CAPPING
IN PLACE THAT OTHER THAN SGR DON`T EXPECT ANY NEED FOR VCNTY SHRA
FOR OTHER TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREEP NORTHWARD AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS (POSSIBLY IFR)
ACROSS THE CLL-IAH-LBX REGION WHERE RICHEST MOISTURE MIXES IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT AGAIN IT SHOULD
BE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE.

45

&&


.MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 202028
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEARLY STATIONARY WITH CIGS BACK UP
INTO VFR ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. WEAK SFC RIDGING CAN BE SEEN
IN THE WINDFIELD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT IAH/BPT WHILE WINDS AT
PSX/LBX ARE SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE SEABREEZE. STRONG ENOUGH CAPPING
IN PLACE THAT OTHER THAN SGR DON`T EXPECT ANY NEED FOR VCNTY SHRA
FOR OTHER TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREEP NORTHWARD AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS (POSSIBLY IFR)
ACROSS THE CLL-IAH-LBX REGION WHERE RICHEST MOISTURE MIXES IN THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT AGAIN IT SHOULD
BE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE.

45

&&


.MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 201456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
956 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MATAGORDA COUNTY ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS. ONLY CHANGES THIS
MORNING WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS AND RAISING WINDS OFFSHORE. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  96  78  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  82  90  81  91 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 201456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
956 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MATAGORDA COUNTY ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS. ONLY CHANGES THIS
MORNING WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS AND RAISING WINDS OFFSHORE. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  96  78  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  82  90  81  91 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 201133
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST HAS SLOWLY BEGUN MOVING
NORTHWARD SINCE ABOUT 10Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN WEST OF KGLS. WOULD EXPECT A BRIEF 1 TO 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING PERIOD. THIS SHOULD IMPACT KHOU...KSGR...KIAH...
AND KCXO. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM KIAH THROUGH KHOU AND KSGR.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM ABOUT KVCT TO KLVJ TO EAST OF KBPT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR FREEPORT. A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS WAS NOTED AT 250 MB THAT IS ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE COAST. A WEAK S/WV WAS NOTED AT 700 MB. THIS
FEATURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTH TEXAS. 850 MB
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL WITH 850 MB DEW PTS NEAR 15
C AT LCH AND 16 C AT CRP. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS LATCHED
ON TO THIS MORNINGS PRECIP DEVELOPING WITH THE 4KM NCEP WRF
PERFORMING THE BEST. THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE REGION
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR THE BULK OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SW ZONES
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND THE 250 MB SHEAR
AXIS RESIDES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TOUGH LATELY WITH CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND YESTERDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CLOUDS BREAKING BY
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH SO WENT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
90S.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN. HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND PW VALUES DROP BACK TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. CAN`T FIND A TRIGGER FOR PRECIP AND FEEL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING
105-106 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY
ONLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PW VALUES BY LATE AFTN. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE SO WILL STAY
WITH THE HOT AND HUMID FCST WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. ON
WED/THU...A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE HELPS NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES...FEEL THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS. THE UPPER JET LOOKS
RATHER ACTIVE BOTH DAYS WITH SEVERAL SPEED MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE
ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS. THE CANADIAN IS STRONGER WITH THE
APPROACHING WEAKNESS AND CARVES OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS INTO EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AND HAS ACTUALLY PERFORMED WELL OF LATE.
WED/THU POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
TEXAS WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM 592 DM TO 596 DM. NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN
THE NW ZONES. 43

MARINE...
AT 4 AM...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A WEAK LOW EAST
OF KGLS TO KLBX TO NEAR KVCT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PRESENT OVER
THE GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE GULF AND BAYS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MODELS KEEP
THE SURFACE WINDS RATHER WEAK TODAY AND THEN PUSH THE FRONT INLAND
LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER...NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  96  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  96  78  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  82  90  81  91 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 201133
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST HAS SLOWLY BEGUN MOVING
NORTHWARD SINCE ABOUT 10Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN WEST OF KGLS. WOULD EXPECT A BRIEF 1 TO 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING PERIOD. THIS SHOULD IMPACT KHOU...KSGR...KIAH...
AND KCXO. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM KIAH THROUGH KHOU AND KSGR.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM ABOUT KVCT TO KLVJ TO EAST OF KBPT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR FREEPORT. A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS WAS NOTED AT 250 MB THAT IS ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE COAST. A WEAK S/WV WAS NOTED AT 700 MB. THIS
FEATURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTH TEXAS. 850 MB
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL WITH 850 MB DEW PTS NEAR 15
C AT LCH AND 16 C AT CRP. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS LATCHED
ON TO THIS MORNINGS PRECIP DEVELOPING WITH THE 4KM NCEP WRF
PERFORMING THE BEST. THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE REGION
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR THE BULK OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SW ZONES
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND THE 250 MB SHEAR
AXIS RESIDES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TOUGH LATELY WITH CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND YESTERDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CLOUDS BREAKING BY
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH SO WENT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
90S.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN. HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND PW VALUES DROP BACK TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. CAN`T FIND A TRIGGER FOR PRECIP AND FEEL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING
105-106 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY
ONLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PW VALUES BY LATE AFTN. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE SO WILL STAY
WITH THE HOT AND HUMID FCST WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. ON
WED/THU...A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE HELPS NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES...FEEL THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS. THE UPPER JET LOOKS
RATHER ACTIVE BOTH DAYS WITH SEVERAL SPEED MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE
ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS. THE CANADIAN IS STRONGER WITH THE
APPROACHING WEAKNESS AND CARVES OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS INTO EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AND HAS ACTUALLY PERFORMED WELL OF LATE.
WED/THU POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
TEXAS WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM 592 DM TO 596 DM. NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN
THE NW ZONES. 43

MARINE...
AT 4 AM...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A WEAK LOW EAST
OF KGLS TO KLBX TO NEAR KVCT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PRESENT OVER
THE GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE GULF AND BAYS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MODELS KEEP
THE SURFACE WINDS RATHER WEAK TODAY AND THEN PUSH THE FRONT INLAND
LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER...NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  96  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  96  78  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  82  90  81  91 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 200911
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM ABOUT KVCT TO KLVJ TO EAST OF KBPT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR FREEPORT. A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS WAS NOTED AT 250 MB THAT IS ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE COAST. A WEAK S/WV WAS NOTED AT 700 MB. THIS
FEATURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTH TEXAS. 850 MB
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL WITH 850 MB DEW PTS NEAR 15
C AT LCH AND 16 C AT CRP. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS LATCHED
ON TO THIS MORNINGS PRECIP DEVELOPING WITH THE 4KM NCEP WRF
PERFORMING THE BEST. THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE REGION
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR THE BULK OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SW ZONES
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND THE 250 MB SHEAR
AXIS RESIDES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TOUGH LATELY WITH CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND YESTERDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CLOUDS BREAKING BY
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH SO WENT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
90S.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN. HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND PW VALUES DROP BACK TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. CAN`T FIND A TRIGGER FOR PRECIP AND FEEL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING
105-106 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY
ONLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PW VALUES BY LATE AFTN. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE SO WILL STAY
WITH THE HOT AND HUMID FCST WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. ON
WED/THU...A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE HELPS NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES...FEEL THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS. THE UPPER JET LOOKS
RATHER ACTIVE BOTH DAYS WITH SEVERAL SPEED MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE
ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS. THE CANADIAN IS STRONGER WITH THE
APPROACHING WEAKNESS AND CARVES OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS INTO EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AND HAS ACTUALLY PERFORMED WELL OF LATE.
WED/THU POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
TEXAS WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM 592 DM TO 596 DM. NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN
THE NW ZONES. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AT 4 AM...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A WEAK LOW EAST
OF KGLS TO KLBX TO NEAR KVCT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PRESENT OVER
THE GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE GULF AND BAYS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MODELS KEEP
THE SURFACE WINDS RATHER WEAK TODAY AND THEN PUSH THE FRONT INLAND
LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER...NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  96  77  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  96  78  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  82  90  81  91 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 200911
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM ABOUT KVCT TO KLVJ TO EAST OF KBPT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR FREEPORT. A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS WAS NOTED AT 250 MB THAT IS ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE COAST. A WEAK S/WV WAS NOTED AT 700 MB. THIS
FEATURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTH TEXAS. 850 MB
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL WITH 850 MB DEW PTS NEAR 15
C AT LCH AND 16 C AT CRP. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS LATCHED
ON TO THIS MORNINGS PRECIP DEVELOPING WITH THE 4KM NCEP WRF
PERFORMING THE BEST. THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE REGION
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR THE BULK OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SW ZONES
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND THE 250 MB SHEAR
AXIS RESIDES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TOUGH LATELY WITH CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND YESTERDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CLOUDS BREAKING BY
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH SO WENT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
90S.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN. HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND PW VALUES DROP BACK TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. CAN`T FIND A TRIGGER FOR PRECIP AND FEEL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING
105-106 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY
ONLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PW VALUES BY LATE AFTN. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE SO WILL STAY
WITH THE HOT AND HUMID FCST WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. ON
WED/THU...A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE HELPS NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES...FEEL THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BOTH DAYS. THE UPPER JET LOOKS
RATHER ACTIVE BOTH DAYS WITH SEVERAL SPEED MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE
ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS. THE CANADIAN IS STRONGER WITH THE
APPROACHING WEAKNESS AND CARVES OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS INTO EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AND HAS ACTUALLY PERFORMED WELL OF LATE.
WED/THU POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
TEXAS WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM 592 DM TO 596 DM. NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN
THE NW ZONES. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AT 4 AM...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A WEAK LOW EAST
OF KGLS TO KLBX TO NEAR KVCT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PRESENT OVER
THE GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE GULF AND BAYS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MODELS KEEP
THE SURFACE WINDS RATHER WEAK TODAY AND THEN PUSH THE FRONT INLAND
LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER...NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  96  77  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  96  78  95 /  30  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  82  90  81  91 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 200455
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LBX AND GLS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
15Z. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT BUT NOT WITHOUT ITS CAVEATS. A LINE OF EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS FORMED UPON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN CWA BOUNDARY.
HRRR/WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE HUNG ONTO THIS ACTIVITY AND EXPANDED IT
NORTH WHILE...AT MOMENT...IT APPEARS TO BE FIZZLING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. CRP SOUNDING IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE (NEAR 6K MUCAPE)
AND A RESIDENT SOUTHERN FA AIR MASS IS STILL VERY MOIST (GT TWO
INCH PWS). ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS NEARLY
WASHED OUT...INLAND MESO-MICRO BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES WILL STILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.
MORNING NEAR COASTAL INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL
KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY. RECENT STRENGTHENED
WESTERN RIDGING PER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND LOWERING 925-700 MB %RHS
FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPRESS EARLY WEEK CONVECTION TO JUST AFTERNOON
BREEZE-DRIVEN SLIGHT PROBABILITIES OF ISO SHRA/TS AT BEST. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS OVER NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. VFR DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
PALACIOS BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ;HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. 38

MARINE...
BOUNDARY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK
NORTH (NICE ROPE CLOUD). WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN AND SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS COMING UP A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SCEC FOR THE PERIOD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  94  75  97  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  92  76  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 200455
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LBX AND GLS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
15Z. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT BUT NOT WITHOUT ITS CAVEATS. A LINE OF EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS FORMED UPON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN CWA BOUNDARY.
HRRR/WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE HUNG ONTO THIS ACTIVITY AND EXPANDED IT
NORTH WHILE...AT MOMENT...IT APPEARS TO BE FIZZLING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. CRP SOUNDING IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE (NEAR 6K MUCAPE)
AND A RESIDENT SOUTHERN FA AIR MASS IS STILL VERY MOIST (GT TWO
INCH PWS). ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS NEARLY
WASHED OUT...INLAND MESO-MICRO BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES WILL STILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.
MORNING NEAR COASTAL INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL
KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY. RECENT STRENGTHENED
WESTERN RIDGING PER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND LOWERING 925-700 MB %RHS
FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPRESS EARLY WEEK CONVECTION TO JUST AFTERNOON
BREEZE-DRIVEN SLIGHT PROBABILITIES OF ISO SHRA/TS AT BEST. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS OVER NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. VFR DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
PALACIOS BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ;HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. 38

MARINE...
BOUNDARY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK
NORTH (NICE ROPE CLOUD). WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN AND SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS COMING UP A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SCEC FOR THE PERIOD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  94  75  97  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  92  76  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 200312
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1012 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT BUT NOT WITHOUT ITS CAVEATS. A LINE OF EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS FORMED UPON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN CWA BOUNDARY.
HRRR/WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE HUNG ONTO THIS ACTIVITY AND EXPANDED IT
NORTH WHILE...AT MOMENT...IT APPEARS TO BE FIZZLING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. CRP SOUNDING IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE (NEAR 6K MUCAPE)
AND A RESIDENT SOUTHERN FA AIR MASS IS STILL VERY MOIST (GT TWO
INCH PWS). ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS NEARLY
WASHED OUT...INLAND MESO-MICRO BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES WILL STILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.
MORNING NEAR COASTAL INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL
KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY. RECENT STRENGTHENED
WESTERN RIDGING PER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND LOWERING 925-700 MB %RHS
FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPRESS EARLY WEEK CONVECTION TO JUST AFTERNOON
BREEZE-DRIVEN SLIGHT PROBABILITIES OF ISO SHRA/TS AT BEST. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS OVER NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. VFR DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
PALACIOS BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ;HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. 38

MARINE...
BOUNDARY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK
NORTH (NICE ROPE CLOUD). WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN AND SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS COMING UP A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SCEC FOR THE PERIOD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  94  75  97  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  92  76  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 192342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS OVER NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. VFR DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.   44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
PALACIOS BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ;HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. 38

MARINE...
BOUNDARY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK
NORTH (NICE ROPE CLOUD). WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN AND SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS COMING UP A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SCEC FOR THE PERIOD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  94  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  77  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  91  81  91  81 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 192342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS OVER NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. VFR DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.   44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
PALACIOS BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ;HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. 38

MARINE...
BOUNDARY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK
NORTH (NICE ROPE CLOUD). WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN AND SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS COMING UP A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SCEC FOR THE PERIOD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  94  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  77  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  91  81  91  81 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 192010
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
PALACIOS BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ;HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. 38

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK
NORTH (NICE ROPE CLOUD). WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN AND SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS COMING UP A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SCEC FOR THE PERIOD. 45

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS STILL HOLDING ON AT 20Z FOR CXO AREA SOUTH
THROUGH THE METRO AND COAST. NAM SHOWING LL MOISTURE LINGERING
TONIGHT AND AMDAR SUPPORTS THIS AT THIS POINT SO HAVE KEPT A AN MVFR
DECK OR VISBY IN FOR MOST SITES. FOG MORE LIKELY UP NORTH AT
CLL/UTS/CXO. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  94  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  77  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  91  81  91  81 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 192010
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
PALACIOS BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ;HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. 38

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK
NORTH (NICE ROPE CLOUD). WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN AND SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS COMING UP A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SCEC FOR THE PERIOD. 45

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS STILL HOLDING ON AT 20Z FOR CXO AREA SOUTH
THROUGH THE METRO AND COAST. NAM SHOWING LL MOISTURE LINGERING
TONIGHT AND AMDAR SUPPORTS THIS AT THIS POINT SO HAVE KEPT A AN MVFR
DECK OR VISBY IN FOR MOST SITES. FOG MORE LIKELY UP NORTH AT
CLL/UTS/CXO. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  94  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  77  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  91  81  91  81 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 191522
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PUSHED OFF THE
COAST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING OVER LAND AND
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HI RES
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE LEFT
AFTERNOON POPS ALONE. ONLY OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS AFTERNOON
HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING SKIES FEEL
THAT THEY COULD GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT MORNING
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 90 SO HAVE LEFT THEM ALONE.

38

&&
.MARINE...

A BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE. WINDS NEAR
15 KNOTS NEARSHORE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AS BOUNDARY WASHES OUT EXPECTING WINDS TO VEER AND CONTINUE
TO RELAX. INCREASED WINDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THEN BACK IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT.
45
&&

.AVIATION... IFR DECKS DECREASING AND MVFR BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RAISE CIGS AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE VCSH/VCTS TO ONLY HOU/SGR SOUTHWARD AS SUBSIDENCE PER WV
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE INLAND. FOG AND CIGS RETURN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO
LOWER THESE FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT TAFS BUT WILL WORK THAT ISSUE IN
THE 18Z PACKAGE.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  74  94  77  97 /  10  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  76  92  77  97 /  20  20  30  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  91  81  91 /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 191522
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PUSHED OFF THE
COAST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING OVER LAND AND
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HI RES
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE LEFT
AFTERNOON POPS ALONE. ONLY OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS AFTERNOON
HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING SKIES FEEL
THAT THEY COULD GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT MORNING
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 90 SO HAVE LEFT THEM ALONE.

38

&&
.MARINE...

A BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE. WINDS NEAR
15 KNOTS NEARSHORE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN AS BOUNDARY WASHES OUT EXPECTING WINDS TO VEER AND CONTINUE
TO RELAX. INCREASED WINDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THEN BACK IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT.
45
&&

.AVIATION... IFR DECKS DECREASING AND MVFR BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RAISE CIGS AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE PARED
BACK THE VCSH/VCTS TO ONLY HOU/SGR SOUTHWARD AS SUBSIDENCE PER WV
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE INLAND. FOG AND CIGS RETURN TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO
LOWER THESE FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT TAFS BUT WILL WORK THAT ISSUE IN
THE 18Z PACKAGE.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  74  94  77  97 /  10  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  76  92  77  97 /  20  20  30  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  91  81  91 /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





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