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000
FXUS64 KHGX 051143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. STARTING OFF KCLL/KSGR/KLBX/KCXO WITH TEMPORARY CEILING
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BASED ON TRENDS... WITH ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS COMING IN OFF THE
GULF THIS MORNING MAY REACH LBX/GLS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING GREATER COVERAGE NEAR THE INLAND
TERMINALS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY... COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN ACTUAL TS
COVERAGE ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAF FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAY PROVIDE A RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 051143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. STARTING OFF KCLL/KSGR/KLBX/KCXO WITH TEMPORARY CEILING
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BASED ON TRENDS... WITH ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS COMING IN OFF THE
GULF THIS MORNING MAY REACH LBX/GLS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING GREATER COVERAGE NEAR THE INLAND
TERMINALS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY... COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN ACTUAL TS
COVERAGE ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAF FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAY PROVIDE A RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 051143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. STARTING OFF KCLL/KSGR/KLBX/KCXO WITH TEMPORARY CEILING
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BASED ON TRENDS... WITH ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS COMING IN OFF THE
GULF THIS MORNING MAY REACH LBX/GLS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING GREATER COVERAGE NEAR THE INLAND
TERMINALS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY... COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN ACTUAL TS
COVERAGE ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAF FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAY PROVIDE A RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 051143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. STARTING OFF KCLL/KSGR/KLBX/KCXO WITH TEMPORARY CEILING
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BASED ON TRENDS... WITH ALL TERMINALS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS COMING IN OFF THE
GULF THIS MORNING MAY REACH LBX/GLS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING GREATER COVERAGE NEAR THE INLAND
TERMINALS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY... COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN ACTUAL TS
COVERAGE ONLY MENTIONING VCSH IN TAF FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAY PROVIDE A RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 051017
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

&&
.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 051017
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

&&
.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 051017
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

&&
.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 051017
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

&&
.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO
SIGN OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOR
SATURDAY WHAT KIND OF COVERAGE WELL SEE FROM SHOWERS. LATEST RUNS
OF RADPID REFRESH AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH ARE A LITTLE WETTER
THAN AVBL MODELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
WITH MAYBE A TAD LESS CAPE SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE THINK WE WILL SEE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SATURDAY...MUCH AS TODAY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE. HAVE WRITTEN TAFS WITH VCSH FOR MOST LIKELY
WINDOWS. MAY NEED TO HIT HARDER IF RADAR TRENDS SHOW CELL
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO...ONLY MENTION OF FOG ARE THE MORE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...CXO AND LBX...AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED SOME SCATTERED STRATUS INLAND SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ALL OF TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GONE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME VERY MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  42

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO
SIGN OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOR
SATURDAY WHAT KIND OF COVERAGE WELL SEE FROM SHOWERS. LATEST RUNS
OF RADPID REFRESH AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH ARE A LITTLE WETTER
THAN AVBL MODELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
WITH MAYBE A TAD LESS CAPE SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE THINK WE WILL SEE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SATURDAY...MUCH AS TODAY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE. HAVE WRITTEN TAFS WITH VCSH FOR MOST LIKELY
WINDOWS. MAY NEED TO HIT HARDER IF RADAR TRENDS SHOW CELL
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO...ONLY MENTION OF FOG ARE THE MORE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...CXO AND LBX...AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED SOME SCATTERED STRATUS INLAND SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ALL OF TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GONE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME VERY MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  42

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO
SIGN OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOR
SATURDAY WHAT KIND OF COVERAGE WELL SEE FROM SHOWERS. LATEST RUNS
OF RADPID REFRESH AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH ARE A LITTLE WETTER
THAN AVBL MODELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
WITH MAYBE A TAD LESS CAPE SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE THINK WE WILL SEE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SATURDAY...MUCH AS TODAY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE. HAVE WRITTEN TAFS WITH VCSH FOR MOST LIKELY
WINDOWS. MAY NEED TO HIT HARDER IF RADAR TRENDS SHOW CELL
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO...ONLY MENTION OF FOG ARE THE MORE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...CXO AND LBX...AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED SOME SCATTERED STRATUS INLAND SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ALL OF TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GONE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME VERY MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  42

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO
SIGN OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOR
SATURDAY WHAT KIND OF COVERAGE WELL SEE FROM SHOWERS. LATEST RUNS
OF RADPID REFRESH AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH ARE A LITTLE WETTER
THAN AVBL MODELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
WITH MAYBE A TAD LESS CAPE SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE THINK WE WILL SEE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SATURDAY...MUCH AS TODAY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE. HAVE WRITTEN TAFS WITH VCSH FOR MOST LIKELY
WINDOWS. MAY NEED TO HIT HARDER IF RADAR TRENDS SHOW CELL
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO...ONLY MENTION OF FOG ARE THE MORE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...CXO AND LBX...AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED SOME SCATTERED STRATUS INLAND SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ALL OF TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GONE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME VERY MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  42

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050205
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
905 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GONE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME VERY MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050205
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
905 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GONE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME VERY MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050205
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
905 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GONE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME VERY MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050205
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
905 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GONE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME VERY MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050104
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVLOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050104
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVLOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46





000
FXUS64 KHGX 042020
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 042020
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  94  76  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  94  76  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  94  76  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  94  76  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  76  94  76  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  76  94  76  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040957
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
457 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45


&&
.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  76  94  76  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 040534
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS AND GALVESTON AROUND
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 7 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL SITES WITH DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS QUIET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR THE COAST. THESE WILL
EXPAND INLAND MID/LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  90  80  91 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040534
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS AND GALVESTON AROUND
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 7 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL SITES WITH DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS QUIET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR THE COAST. THESE WILL
EXPAND INLAND MID/LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  90  80  91 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 040213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
913 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS QUIET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR THE COAST. THESE WILL
EXPAND INLAND MID/LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH
FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND HOUSTON AREA. THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REALLY DECOUPLE AND HOW DEEP OF AN INVERSION
WILL BE ESTABLISHED. WILL MENTION MVFR TYPE VSBY FOR MOST AREAS
BUT WILL WATCH OBS CLOSELY. TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED AT 06Z
FOR STRONGER MENTION OF LOWER VSBY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  10  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
913 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS QUIET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR THE COAST. THESE WILL
EXPAND INLAND MID/LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH
FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND HOUSTON AREA. THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REALLY DECOUPLE AND HOW DEEP OF AN INVERSION
WILL BE ESTABLISHED. WILL MENTION MVFR TYPE VSBY FOR MOST AREAS
BUT WILL WATCH OBS CLOSELY. TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED AT 06Z
FOR STRONGER MENTION OF LOWER VSBY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  10  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 040009
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
709 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH
FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND HOUSTON AREA. THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REALLY DECOUPLE AND HOW DEEP OF AN INVERSION
WILL BE ESTABLISHED. WILL MENTION MVFR TYPE VSBY FOR MOST AREAS
BUT WILL WATCH OBS CLOSELY. TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED AT 06Z
FOR STRONGER MENTION OF LOWER VSBY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040009
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
709 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH
FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND HOUSTON AREA. THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REALLY DECOUPLE AND HOW DEEP OF AN INVERSION
WILL BE ESTABLISHED. WILL MENTION MVFR TYPE VSBY FOR MOST AREAS
BUT WILL WATCH OBS CLOSELY. TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED AT 06Z
FOR STRONGER MENTION OF LOWER VSBY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 031527
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.
45

AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST SITES THOUGH SOME LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT DWH-CXO AND
EASTWARD EXPANDING INLAND. UTS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT TO DROP.
WILL BE CLOSE AT IAH WITH FEW ALREADY. QUICK HEATING AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE SHORT LIVED. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
THE VCSH WORDING IN TAFS AND LIKELY WAIT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER AS THE SHOWERS WORK INLAND THIS MORNING OVERCOMING THE
DRIER AIR INLAND.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  94  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  75  93  76  94 /  30  30  30  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  88  79  90 /  30  30  40  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 031527
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.
45

AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST SITES THOUGH SOME LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT DWH-CXO AND
EASTWARD EXPANDING INLAND. UTS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT TO DROP.
WILL BE CLOSE AT IAH WITH FEW ALREADY. QUICK HEATING AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE SHORT LIVED. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
THE VCSH WORDING IN TAFS AND LIKELY WAIT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER AS THE SHOWERS WORK INLAND THIS MORNING OVERCOMING THE
DRIER AIR INLAND.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  94  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  75  93  76  94 /  30  30  30  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  88  79  90 /  30  30  40  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030924
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORN-
ING...ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACK-
ING OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST SITES THOUGH SOME LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT DWH-CXO AND
EASTWARD EXPANDING INLAND. UTS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT TO DROP.
WILL BE CLOSE AT IAH WITH FEW ALREADY. QUICK HEATING AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE SHORT LIVED. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
THE VCSH WORDING IN TAFS AND LIKELY WAIT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER AS THE SHOWERS WORK INLAND THIS MORNING OVERCOMING THE
DRIER AIR INLAND.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  75  94  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  75  93  76  94 /  40  30  30  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  79  88  79  90 /  50  30  40  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030924
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORN-
ING...ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACK-
ING OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST SITES THOUGH SOME LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT DWH-CXO AND
EASTWARD EXPANDING INLAND. UTS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT TO DROP.
WILL BE CLOSE AT IAH WITH FEW ALREADY. QUICK HEATING AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE SHORT LIVED. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
THE VCSH WORDING IN TAFS AND LIKELY WAIT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER AS THE SHOWERS WORK INLAND THIS MORNING OVERCOMING THE
DRIER AIR INLAND.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  75  94  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  75  93  76  94 /  40  30  30  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  79  88  79  90 /  50  30  40  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 030453
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND HAVE ALLOWED T/TD SPREADS TO NARROW AT
THE SURFACE. WITH A SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS SOME MVFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS INCLUDING KIAH/KHOU. THINK LOW STRATOCU
WILL LIKELY BE SCT/BKN THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WILL CARRY MVFR
CIGS IN THE TAFS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF IFR CIGS FOR KCLL AND
MENTIONED MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAINLY FOR
FOG BUT COULD SEE AN IFR CIG AS WELL.

SHORT RANGE HRRR STILL SHOWING CONVECTION COMING INLAND AROUND
10-12Z PERHAPS SOONER. ANY SHRA SHOULD WEAKEN LATE MORNING ALONG
THE COAST BUT THEN POSSILBY REDEVELOP WITH DAY TIME HEATING
FARTHER INLAND. NOT SEEING AS MUCH DEEP MOISTURE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPPER LOW MAY BE WEAKENING...SO THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISO IN NATURE. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING AGAIN.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ENDED WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL LEAVE A FEW
HOURS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WARM WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST...SPREADING OVER MORE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 030453
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND HAVE ALLOWED T/TD SPREADS TO NARROW AT
THE SURFACE. WITH A SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS SOME MVFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS INCLUDING KIAH/KHOU. THINK LOW STRATOCU
WILL LIKELY BE SCT/BKN THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WILL CARRY MVFR
CIGS IN THE TAFS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF IFR CIGS FOR KCLL AND
MENTIONED MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAINLY FOR
FOG BUT COULD SEE AN IFR CIG AS WELL.

SHORT RANGE HRRR STILL SHOWING CONVECTION COMING INLAND AROUND
10-12Z PERHAPS SOONER. ANY SHRA SHOULD WEAKEN LATE MORNING ALONG
THE COAST BUT THEN POSSILBY REDEVELOP WITH DAY TIME HEATING
FARTHER INLAND. NOT SEEING AS MUCH DEEP MOISTURE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPPER LOW MAY BE WEAKENING...SO THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISO IN NATURE. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING AGAIN.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ENDED WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL LEAVE A FEW
HOURS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WARM WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST...SPREADING OVER MORE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030217
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ENDED WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL LEAVE A FEW
HOURS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WARM WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST...SPREADING OVER MORE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030217
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ENDED WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL LEAVE A FEW
HOURS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WARM WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST...SPREADING OVER MORE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48





000
FXUS64 KHGX 030217
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ENDED WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL LEAVE A FEW
HOURS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WARM WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST...SPREADING OVER MORE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48





000
FXUS64 KHGX 030217
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ENDED WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL LEAVE A FEW
HOURS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WARM WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST...SPREADING OVER MORE OF THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
TO GENERATE PRECIP. STORM MOTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE AND SOME
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 700
AND 1000 PM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FEATURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EAST AND IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED...THE TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WITH HEATING. SE TX
WILL LIE IN A WEAK RRQ LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PW VALUES AND THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE WETTER.
PARTS OF THE UPPER COAST WILL AGAIN RECEIVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LEVELS WANE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT
ITSELF OVER TEXAS. 500 HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592 DM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY
SO ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. 43

MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND WEAKEN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. RESPONDING SEAS WILL FALL AND STAY BETWEEN ONE AND
SLIGHTLY OVER TWO FEET OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT GULF
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN...BUT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL STAY AT OR
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 31

CLIMATE...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS RETURNED TO A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE HAVE
REMAINED VERY DRY. MADISONVILLE HAS RECORDED ONLY 0.12 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE JUNE 22ND. CROCKETT HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.67 INCHES SINCE
JUNE 22ND. SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
KBDI VALUES OVER 700. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. CONTRAST THE
LACK OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
GALVESTON RECEIVED 3.35 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. HOBBY AIRPORT
RECEIVED MORE RAIN THIS MORNING AND THEIR ANNUAL TOTAL IS NOW
53.82 INCHES OR 0.83 INCHES BEHIND THEIR 30 YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL (54.65 INCHES). PARTS OF BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...HARRIS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED 12 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
JUNE 22ND WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING DURING AUGUST. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 022333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
TO GENERATE PRECIP. STORM MOTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE AND SOME
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 700
AND 1000 PM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FEATURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EAST AND IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED...THE TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WITH HEATING. SE TX
WILL LIE IN A WEAK RRQ LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PW VALUES AND THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE WETTER.
PARTS OF THE UPPER COAST WILL AGAIN RECEIVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LEVELS WANE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT
ITSELF OVER TEXAS. 500 HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592 DM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY
SO ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. 43

MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND WEAKEN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. RESPONDING SEAS WILL FALL AND STAY BETWEEN ONE AND
SLIGHTLY OVER TWO FEET OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT GULF
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN...BUT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL STAY AT OR
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 31

CLIMATE...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS RETURNED TO A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE HAVE
REMAINED VERY DRY. MADISONVILLE HAS RECORDED ONLY 0.12 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE JUNE 22ND. CROCKETT HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.67 INCHES SINCE
JUNE 22ND. SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
KBDI VALUES OVER 700. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. CONTRAST THE
LACK OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
GALVESTON RECEIVED 3.35 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. HOBBY AIRPORT
RECEIVED MORE RAIN THIS MORNING AND THEIR ANNUAL TOTAL IS NOW
53.82 INCHES OR 0.83 INCHES BEHIND THEIR 30 YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL (54.65 INCHES). PARTS OF BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...HARRIS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED 12 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
JUNE 22ND WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING DURING AUGUST. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WITH A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT KIAH. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR MOST AREAS.
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NAM/GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE ALL GO WITH IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE MORNING. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT
PESSIMISTIC SO WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY DEVELOP INLAND LIKE TODAY WITH MAYBE AN
ISO TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
TO GENERATE PRECIP. STORM MOTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE AND SOME
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 700
AND 1000 PM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FEATURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EAST AND IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED...THE TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WITH HEATING. SE TX
WILL LIE IN A WEAK RRQ LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PW VALUES AND THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE WETTER.
PARTS OF THE UPPER COAST WILL AGAIN RECEIVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LEVELS WANE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT
ITSELF OVER TEXAS. 500 HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592 DM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY
SO ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. 43

MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND WEAKEN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. RESPONDING SEAS WILL FALL AND STAY BETWEEN ONE AND
SLIGHTLY OVER TWO FEET OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT GULF
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN...BUT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL STAY AT OR
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 31

CLIMATE...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS RETURNED TO A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE HAVE
REMAINED VERY DRY. MADISONVILLE HAS RECORDED ONLY 0.12 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE JUNE 22ND. CROCKETT HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.67 INCHES SINCE
JUNE 22ND. SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
KBDI VALUES OVER 700. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. CONTRAST THE
LACK OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
GALVESTON RECEIVED 3.35 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. HOBBY AIRPORT
RECEIVED MORE RAIN THIS MORNING AND THEIR ANNUAL TOTAL IS NOW
53.82 INCHES OR 0.83 INCHES BEHIND THEIR 30 YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL (54.65 INCHES). PARTS OF BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...HARRIS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED 12 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
JUNE 22ND WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING DURING AUGUST. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022034
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
TO GENERATE PRECIP. STORM MOTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE AND SOME
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 700
AND 1000 PM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FEATURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EAST AND IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED...THE TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WITH HEATING. SE TX
WILL LIE IN A WEAK RRQ LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PW VALUES AND THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE WETTER.
PARTS OF THE UPPER COAST WILL AGAIN RECEIVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LEVELS WANE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT
ITSELF OVER TEXAS. 500 HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592 DM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY
SO ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND WEAKEN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. RESPONDING SEAS WILL FALL AND STAY BETWEEN ONE AND
SLIGHTLY OVER TWO FEET OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT GULF
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN...BUT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL STAY AT OR
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS RETURNED TO A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE HAVE
REMAINED VERY DRY. MADISONVILLE HAS RECORDED ONLY 0.12 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE JUNE 22ND. CROCKETT HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.67 INCHES SINCE
JUNE 22ND. SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
KBDI VALUES OVER 700. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. CONTRAST THE
LACK OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
GALVESTON RECEIVED 3.35 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. HOBBY AIRPORT
RECEIVED MORE RAIN THIS MORNING AND THEIR ANNUAL TOTAL IS NOW
53.82 INCHES OR 0.83 INCHES BEHIND THEIR 30 YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL (54.65 INCHES). PARTS OF BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...HARRIS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED 12 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
JUNE 22ND WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING DURING AUGUST. 43


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022034
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
TO GENERATE PRECIP. STORM MOTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE AND SOME
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 700
AND 1000 PM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FEATURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EAST AND IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED...THE TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WITH HEATING. SE TX
WILL LIE IN A WEAK RRQ LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PW VALUES AND THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE WETTER.
PARTS OF THE UPPER COAST WILL AGAIN RECEIVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LEVELS WANE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT
ITSELF OVER TEXAS. 500 HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592 DM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY
SO ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND WEAKEN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. RESPONDING SEAS WILL FALL AND STAY BETWEEN ONE AND
SLIGHTLY OVER TWO FEET OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT GULF
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN...BUT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL STAY AT OR
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS RETURNED TO A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE HAVE
REMAINED VERY DRY. MADISONVILLE HAS RECORDED ONLY 0.12 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE JUNE 22ND. CROCKETT HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.67 INCHES SINCE
JUNE 22ND. SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
KBDI VALUES OVER 700. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. CONTRAST THE
LACK OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
GALVESTON RECEIVED 3.35 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. HOBBY AIRPORT
RECEIVED MORE RAIN THIS MORNING AND THEIR ANNUAL TOTAL IS NOW
53.82 INCHES OR 0.83 INCHES BEHIND THEIR 30 YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL (54.65 INCHES). PARTS OF BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...HARRIS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED 12 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
JUNE 22ND WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING DURING AUGUST. 43


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 021754
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1254 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...LOW END CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT HOUSTON METRO AND SOUTHERN
(INLAND) TERMINALS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS
COAST...WITH A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
...COULD RE-FIRE LATE AFTERNOON INTERIOR TSRA ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ONCE LOWER 90 F SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED. CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW INLAND SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR AROUND SUNRISE. THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE WILL LIKELY RE-INTRODUCE HIGHER
GULF AND NEAR COASTAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE LATTER PERIOD...
PARTICULARLY IF CLEARER EARLY MORNING SKIES ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S BY LATE MORNING. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS WANED INLAND BUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT 850 MB...DEW PTS ARE BETWEEN 14-15
BETWEEN SHV AND BRO. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE TX
TO JUST EAST OF BRO WITH THE BEST MSTR TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
AT 250 MB...A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.80 AND
1.90 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE LCH
SOUNDINGS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB. THERE SHOULD
BE A GAP IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO
AROUND 90...THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND THIS
AFTN. VIS SATELLITE SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING SO AM EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND 90 DEGREES LOOKS
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE TRENDED INLAND TEMPS WARMER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRU 18Z AND THEN LOWER THEM SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. ALSO MODIFIED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER EARLY START FOR THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DID
GO AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF
UNSETTLED WX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
MOVING UP THE TX COAST THESE LAST FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN/AROUND THE
MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN SLOWLY FILLING IN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
CHC POPS IN UNTIL FRI OR SO AS WE THEN EVOLVE TO A MORE DIURNALLY
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LONG-RANGE MODELS MAINTAINING A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH
ALSO LOOKS TO BE WHY THEY ARE KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. OF NOTE IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED FCST - A COLD FRONT
MAYBE PERHAPS NEXT FRI? WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS TOTALLY IN FAVOR
WITH THIS THE GFS IS NOT EXACTLY DISCOURAGING EITHER. ALSO THE
TIMING IS ABOUT 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR COLD
FRONTS IN SE TX (WHICH IS SEP 15TH). SO I GUESS WE SHALL SEE. 41

&&

MARINE...
AGAIN COASTAL WATERS GETTING ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND AS WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST WITH NOTABLE SPEED CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INLAND. COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LULL
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
NEAR 10 (OR LESS) THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  94  75  94  76 /  20  30  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  92  75  92  76 /  30  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  88  79 /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021754
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1254 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...LOW END CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT HOUSTON METRO AND SOUTHERN
(INLAND) TERMINALS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS
COAST...WITH A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
...COULD RE-FIRE LATE AFTERNOON INTERIOR TSRA ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ONCE LOWER 90 F SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED. CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW INLAND SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR AROUND SUNRISE. THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE WILL LIKELY RE-INTRODUCE HIGHER
GULF AND NEAR COASTAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE LATTER PERIOD...
PARTICULARLY IF CLEARER EARLY MORNING SKIES ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S BY LATE MORNING. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS WANED INLAND BUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT 850 MB...DEW PTS ARE BETWEEN 14-15
BETWEEN SHV AND BRO. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE TX
TO JUST EAST OF BRO WITH THE BEST MSTR TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
AT 250 MB...A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.80 AND
1.90 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE LCH
SOUNDINGS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB. THERE SHOULD
BE A GAP IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO
AROUND 90...THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND THIS
AFTN. VIS SATELLITE SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING SO AM EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND 90 DEGREES LOOKS
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE TRENDED INLAND TEMPS WARMER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRU 18Z AND THEN LOWER THEM SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. ALSO MODIFIED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER EARLY START FOR THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DID
GO AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF
UNSETTLED WX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
MOVING UP THE TX COAST THESE LAST FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN/AROUND THE
MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN SLOWLY FILLING IN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
CHC POPS IN UNTIL FRI OR SO AS WE THEN EVOLVE TO A MORE DIURNALLY
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LONG-RANGE MODELS MAINTAINING A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH
ALSO LOOKS TO BE WHY THEY ARE KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. OF NOTE IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED FCST - A COLD FRONT
MAYBE PERHAPS NEXT FRI? WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS TOTALLY IN FAVOR
WITH THIS THE GFS IS NOT EXACTLY DISCOURAGING EITHER. ALSO THE
TIMING IS ABOUT 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR COLD
FRONTS IN SE TX (WHICH IS SEP 15TH). SO I GUESS WE SHALL SEE. 41

&&

MARINE...
AGAIN COASTAL WATERS GETTING ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND AS WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST WITH NOTABLE SPEED CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INLAND. COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LULL
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
NEAR 10 (OR LESS) THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  94  75  94  76 /  20  30  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  92  75  92  76 /  30  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  88  79 /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 021510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS WANED INLAND BUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT 850 MB...DEW PTS ARE BETWEEN 14-15
BETWEEN SHV AND BRO. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE TX
TO JUST EAST OF BRO WITH THE BEST MSTR TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
AT 250 MB...A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.80 AND
1.90 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE LCH
SOUNDINGS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB. THERE SHOULD
BE A GAP IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO
AROUND 90...THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND THIS
AFTN. VIS SATELLITE SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING SO AM EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND 90 DEGREES LOOKS
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE TRENDED INLAND TEMPS WARMER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRU 18Z AND THEN LOWER THEM SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. ALSO MODIFIED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER EARLY START FOR THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DID
GO AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF
UNSETTLED WX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
MOVING UP THE TX COAST THESE LAST FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN/AROUND THE
MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN SLOWLY FILLING IN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
CHC POPS IN UNTIL FRI OR SO AS WE THEN EVOLVE TO A MORE DIURNALLY
SEABREEZE DRIVEN PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LONG-RANGE MODELS MAINTAINING A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH
ALSO LOOKS TO BE WHY THEY ARE KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. OF NOTE IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED FCST - A COLD FRONT
MAYBE PERHAPS NEXT FRI? WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS TOTALLY IN FAVOR
WITH THIS THE GFS IS NOT EXACTLY DISCOURAGING EITHER. ALSO THE
TIMING IS ABOUT 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR COLD
FRONTS IN SE TX (WHICH IS SEP 15TH). SO I GUESS WE SHALL SEE.

41

MARINE...
AGAIN COASTAL WATERS GETTING ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND AS WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST WITH NOTABLE SPEED CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INLAND. COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LULL
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
NEAR 10 (OR LESS) THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER.
45

AVIATION...
STORMS SPREADING INLAND PAST GLS/LBX/BYY AND SHOULD BE NEARING
SGR/HOU SOON. WILL LIKELY SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING FOR HOU SOUTHWARD SHIFTING TO IAH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
INDICATIONS OF A DECENT CLUSTER TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
APPROACHES TO IAH/HOU BETWEEN 14-19Z. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO HAVE AN AREA OF STRONG STORMS EAST OF IAH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT OF THIS SOLUTION AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN DECREASING
AND CAN FIND ANY CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE S/W IN THE MODELS AS OF
YET. VFR THROUGH TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  74  94  75  94 /  20  20  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  92  75  92 /  30  30  40  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  77  88  79  88 /  60  40  50  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 021510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS WANED INLAND BUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT 850 MB...DEW PTS ARE BETWEEN 14-15
BETWEEN SHV AND BRO. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE TX
TO JUST EAST OF BRO WITH THE BEST MSTR TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
AT 250 MB...A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.80 AND
1.90 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE LCH
SOUNDINGS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB. THERE SHOULD
BE A GAP IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO
AROUND 90...THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND THIS
AFTN. VIS SATELLITE SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING SO AM EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND 90 DEGREES LOOKS
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE TRENDED INLAND TEMPS WARMER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRU 18Z AND THEN LOWER THEM SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. ALSO MODIFIED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER EARLY START FOR THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DID
GO AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF
UNSETTLED WX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
MOVING UP THE TX COAST THESE LAST FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN/AROUND THE
MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN SLOWLY FILLING IN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
CHC POPS IN UNTIL FRI OR SO AS WE THEN EVOLVE TO A MORE DIURNALLY
SEABREEZE DRIVEN PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LONG-RANGE MODELS MAINTAINING A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH
ALSO LOOKS TO BE WHY THEY ARE KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. OF NOTE IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED FCST - A COLD FRONT
MAYBE PERHAPS NEXT FRI? WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS TOTALLY IN FAVOR
WITH THIS THE GFS IS NOT EXACTLY DISCOURAGING EITHER. ALSO THE
TIMING IS ABOUT 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR COLD
FRONTS IN SE TX (WHICH IS SEP 15TH). SO I GUESS WE SHALL SEE.

41

MARINE...
AGAIN COASTAL WATERS GETTING ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND AS WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST WITH NOTABLE SPEED CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INLAND. COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LULL
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
NEAR 10 (OR LESS) THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER.
45

AVIATION...
STORMS SPREADING INLAND PAST GLS/LBX/BYY AND SHOULD BE NEARING
SGR/HOU SOON. WILL LIKELY SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING FOR HOU SOUTHWARD SHIFTING TO IAH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
INDICATIONS OF A DECENT CLUSTER TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
APPROACHES TO IAH/HOU BETWEEN 14-19Z. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO HAVE AN AREA OF STRONG STORMS EAST OF IAH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT OF THIS SOLUTION AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN DECREASING
AND CAN FIND ANY CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE S/W IN THE MODELS AS OF
YET. VFR THROUGH TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  74  94  75  94 /  20  20  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  92  75  92 /  30  30  40  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  77  88  79  88 /  60  40  50  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS WANED INLAND BUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT 850 MB...DEW PTS ARE BETWEEN 14-15
BETWEEN SHV AND BRO. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE TX
TO JUST EAST OF BRO WITH THE BEST MSTR TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
AT 250 MB...A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.80 AND
1.90 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE LCH
SOUNDINGS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB. THERE SHOULD
BE A GAP IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO
AROUND 90...THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND THIS
AFTN. VIS SATELLITE SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING SO AM EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND 90 DEGREES LOOKS
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE TRENDED INLAND TEMPS WARMER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRU 18Z AND THEN LOWER THEM SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. ALSO MODIFIED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER EARLY START FOR THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DID
GO AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF
UNSETTLED WX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
MOVING UP THE TX COAST THESE LAST FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN/AROUND THE
MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN SLOWLY FILLING IN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
CHC POPS IN UNTIL FRI OR SO AS WE THEN EVOLVE TO A MORE DIURNALLY
SEABREEZE DRIVEN PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LONG-RANGE MODELS MAINTAINING A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH
ALSO LOOKS TO BE WHY THEY ARE KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. OF NOTE IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED FCST - A COLD FRONT
MAYBE PERHAPS NEXT FRI? WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS TOTALLY IN FAVOR
WITH THIS THE GFS IS NOT EXACTLY DISCOURAGING EITHER. ALSO THE
TIMING IS ABOUT 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR COLD
FRONTS IN SE TX (WHICH IS SEP 15TH). SO I GUESS WE SHALL SEE.

41

MARINE...
AGAIN COASTAL WATERS GETTING ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND AS WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST WITH NOTABLE SPEED CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INLAND. COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LULL
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
NEAR 10 (OR LESS) THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER.
45

AVIATION...
STORMS SPREADING INLAND PAST GLS/LBX/BYY AND SHOULD BE NEARING
SGR/HOU SOON. WILL LIKELY SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING FOR HOU SOUTHWARD SHIFTING TO IAH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
INDICATIONS OF A DECENT CLUSTER TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
APPROACHES TO IAH/HOU BETWEEN 14-19Z. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO HAVE AN AREA OF STRONG STORMS EAST OF IAH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT OF THIS SOLUTION AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN DECREASING
AND CAN FIND ANY CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE S/W IN THE MODELS AS OF
YET. VFR THROUGH TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  74  94  75  94 /  20  20  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  92  75  92 /  30  30  40  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  77  88  79  88 /  60  40  50  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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