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000
FXUS64 KHGX 060459
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY CREEPING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TERMINALS FROM
THE HILL COUNTRY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE... COUPLED WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /09-10Z/. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SOMEWHAT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY AND DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL ONLY MENTION TSRA FOR COLLEGE STATION...
HUNTSVILLE... AND CONROE BUT OVERNIGHT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE... SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER GUSTS 20 TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINAS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY WANING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
REGION BUT NOT SO QUICKLY IN THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
DROP MENTION OF PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THEN REINTRODUCE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND RAISED POPS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE EXIT REGION TRAVERSING THROUGH DEL RIO TO AUSTIN AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE HELPING TO FIRE OFF STORMS FROM NEAR KPEZ-KSAT-
KEDC. THIS EXIT REGION SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD BUT MAY HELP THOSE
STORMS TO THE WEST BACKBUILD. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...PROBABLY AFTER
930 OR SO THEY MAY REACH THE BURLESON COUNTY AREA. IN ADDITION THE
LLJ IS TAPPING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIR IN THE COASTAL BEND REGION
(00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY MOIST SFC-700MB LAYER AND PW
1.8") AND PULLING IT NORTH TO COLLIDE WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS
TO THE WEST. ATTM HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS MOVE
THESE STORMS EAST IN THE CENTRAL AREAS OF SETX AFTER 3 AM BUT
THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET THEM THAT FAR EAST BUT CERTAINLY INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BLANKET THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  40  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 060459
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY CREEPING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TERMINALS FROM
THE HILL COUNTRY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE... COUPLED WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /09-10Z/. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SOMEWHAT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY AND DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL ONLY MENTION TSRA FOR COLLEGE STATION...
HUNTSVILLE... AND CONROE BUT OVERNIGHT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE... SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER GUSTS 20 TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINAS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY WANING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
REGION BUT NOT SO QUICKLY IN THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
DROP MENTION OF PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THEN REINTRODUCE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND RAISED POPS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE EXIT REGION TRAVERSING THROUGH DEL RIO TO AUSTIN AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE HELPING TO FIRE OFF STORMS FROM NEAR KPEZ-KSAT-
KEDC. THIS EXIT REGION SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD BUT MAY HELP THOSE
STORMS TO THE WEST BACKBUILD. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...PROBABLY AFTER
930 OR SO THEY MAY REACH THE BURLESON COUNTY AREA. IN ADDITION THE
LLJ IS TAPPING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIR IN THE COASTAL BEND REGION
(00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY MOIST SFC-700MB LAYER AND PW
1.8") AND PULLING IT NORTH TO COLLIDE WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS
TO THE WEST. ATTM HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS MOVE
THESE STORMS EAST IN THE CENTRAL AREAS OF SETX AFTER 3 AM BUT
THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET THEM THAT FAR EAST BUT CERTAINLY INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BLANKET THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  40  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 060048
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
748 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY WANING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
REGION BUT NOT SO QUICKLY IN THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
DROP MENTION OF PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THEN REINTRODUCE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND RAISED POPS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE EXIT REGION TRAVERSING THROUGH DEL RIO TO AUSTIN AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE HELPING TO FIRE OFF STORMS FROM NEAR KPEZ-KSAT-
KEDC. THIS EXIT REGION SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD BUT MAY HELP THOSE
STORMS TO THE WEST BACKBUILD. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...PROBABLY AFTER
930 OR SO THEY MAY REACH THE BURLESON COUNTY AREA. IN ADDITION THE
LLJ IS TAPPING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIR IN THE COASTAL BEND REGION
(00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY MOIST SFC-700MB LAYER AND PW
1.8") AND PULLING IT NORTH TO COLLIDE WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS
TO THE WEST. ATTM HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS MOVE
THESE STORMS EAST IN THE CENTRAL AREAS OF SETX AFTER 3 AM BUT
THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET THEM THAT FAR EAST BUT CERTAINLY INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BLANKET THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND ELEVATED
WINDS... CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST COURTESY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE... WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. AREA RADARS SHOW A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTH
WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER /68+/ SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS EVENING...
AND A FEW OF THESE MAY SKIRT THE TERMINALS BEFORE WEAKENING WITH
CONTINUED LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER... LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION WITH MODEL MASS FIELDS
SHUNTING BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE
OUT BRIEF CATEGORY DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR IF THE DECK FILLS IN...
BUT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW /MAINLY
AFTER 19Z/... BUT WITH ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE ONLY
INCLUDING VCTS MENTION FOR NOW.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  40  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 060048
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
748 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY WANING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
REGION BUT NOT SO QUICKLY IN THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
DROP MENTION OF PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THEN REINTRODUCE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND RAISED POPS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE EXIT REGION TRAVERSING THROUGH DEL RIO TO AUSTIN AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE HELPING TO FIRE OFF STORMS FROM NEAR KPEZ-KSAT-
KEDC. THIS EXIT REGION SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD BUT MAY HELP THOSE
STORMS TO THE WEST BACKBUILD. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...PROBABLY AFTER
930 OR SO THEY MAY REACH THE BURLESON COUNTY AREA. IN ADDITION THE
LLJ IS TAPPING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIR IN THE COASTAL BEND REGION
(00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY MOIST SFC-700MB LAYER AND PW
1.8") AND PULLING IT NORTH TO COLLIDE WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS
TO THE WEST. ATTM HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS MOVE
THESE STORMS EAST IN THE CENTRAL AREAS OF SETX AFTER 3 AM BUT
THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET THEM THAT FAR EAST BUT CERTAINLY INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BLANKET THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND ELEVATED
WINDS... CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST COURTESY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE... WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. AREA RADARS SHOW A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTH
WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER /68+/ SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS EVENING...
AND A FEW OF THESE MAY SKIRT THE TERMINALS BEFORE WEAKENING WITH
CONTINUED LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER... LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION WITH MODEL MASS FIELDS
SHUNTING BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE
OUT BRIEF CATEGORY DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR IF THE DECK FILLS IN...
BUT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW /MAINLY
AFTER 19Z/... BUT WITH ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE ONLY
INCLUDING VCTS MENTION FOR NOW.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  40  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 060048
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
748 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY WANING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
REGION BUT NOT SO QUICKLY IN THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
DROP MENTION OF PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THEN REINTRODUCE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND RAISED POPS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE EXIT REGION TRAVERSING THROUGH DEL RIO TO AUSTIN AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE HELPING TO FIRE OFF STORMS FROM NEAR KPEZ-KSAT-
KEDC. THIS EXIT REGION SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD BUT MAY HELP THOSE
STORMS TO THE WEST BACKBUILD. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...PROBABLY AFTER
930 OR SO THEY MAY REACH THE BURLESON COUNTY AREA. IN ADDITION THE
LLJ IS TAPPING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIR IN THE COASTAL BEND REGION
(00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY MOIST SFC-700MB LAYER AND PW
1.8") AND PULLING IT NORTH TO COLLIDE WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS
TO THE WEST. ATTM HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS MOVE
THESE STORMS EAST IN THE CENTRAL AREAS OF SETX AFTER 3 AM BUT
THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET THEM THAT FAR EAST BUT CERTAINLY INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BLANKET THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND ELEVATED
WINDS... CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST COURTESY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE... WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. AREA RADARS SHOW A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTH
WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER /68+/ SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS EVENING...
AND A FEW OF THESE MAY SKIRT THE TERMINALS BEFORE WEAKENING WITH
CONTINUED LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER... LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION WITH MODEL MASS FIELDS
SHUNTING BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE
OUT BRIEF CATEGORY DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR IF THE DECK FILLS IN...
BUT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW /MAINLY
AFTER 19Z/... BUT WITH ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE ONLY
INCLUDING VCTS MENTION FOR NOW.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  40  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 060020
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND ELEVATED
WINDS... CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST COURTESY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE... WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. AREA RADARS SHOW A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTH
WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER /68+/ SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS EVENING...
AND A FEW OF THESE MAY SKIRT THE TERMINALS BEFORE WEAKENING WITH
CONTINUED LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER... LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION WITH MODEL MASS FIELDS
SHUNTING BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE
OUT BRIEF CATEGORY DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR IF THE DECK FILLS IN...
BUT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW /MAINLY
AFTER 19Z/... BUT WITH ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE ONLY
INCLUDING VCTS MENTION FOR NOW.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  30  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 060020
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND ELEVATED
WINDS... CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST COURTESY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE... WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. AREA RADARS SHOW A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTH
WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER /68+/ SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS EVENING...
AND A FEW OF THESE MAY SKIRT THE TERMINALS BEFORE WEAKENING WITH
CONTINUED LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER... LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION WITH MODEL MASS FIELDS
SHUNTING BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE
OUT BRIEF CATEGORY DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR IF THE DECK FILLS IN...
BUT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW /MAINLY
AFTER 19Z/... BUT WITH ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE ONLY
INCLUDING VCTS MENTION FOR NOW.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  30  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 052007
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SE TX IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE. AIR MASS IS
NOT QUITE AS WORKED OVER THE W-SW ZONES AND FEEL ACTIVITY WILL
DRIFT TOWARD THE UNMODIFIED AIR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN AND
EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST MERGES WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE W-SW
ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CAN`T REALLY FIND A SFC TRIGGER AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE LESS DIVERGENT TOMORROW BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS OUT WEST DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. THE HRRR AND THE
RAP ARE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT IN THE AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR. THE NAM SOUNDINGS
ON WEDNESDAY LOOK FAIRLY POTENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000...LI VALUES ARE -8 AND A WEAK INVERTED
V SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AMPLIFIES INTO SE
TX THU-SAT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. WESTERN AREAS COULD GET CLIPPED BY A
DISTURBANCE OR TWO BUT FOR THE MOST PART...FEEL SE TX WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID BUT GENERALLY RAIN FREE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF IS FLATTENED A BIT AND NUDGED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
BRING SOME OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER A BIT FURTHER EAST SUN-TUE. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY AND PROBABLY
STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BEFORE RETREATING NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
MON/TUE COULD BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED IN THE BAYS AND SLIGHTLY UNDER
CRITERIA OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SPEEDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BUMP UP TO 20KTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING SO AM GOING
TO HOIST THE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND WITH INTERMITTENT
PERIODS WHEREAS CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE REQUIRED.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED SEAS AND SURF WILL PRODUCE STRONGER THAN NORMAL RIP
CURRENTS (AS WAS OBSERVED BY GALVESTON BEACH PATROL TODAY) THRU
MIDWEEK.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  30  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 052007
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SE TX IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE. AIR MASS IS
NOT QUITE AS WORKED OVER THE W-SW ZONES AND FEEL ACTIVITY WILL
DRIFT TOWARD THE UNMODIFIED AIR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN AND
EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST MERGES WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE W-SW
ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CAN`T REALLY FIND A SFC TRIGGER AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE LESS DIVERGENT TOMORROW BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS OUT WEST DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. THE HRRR AND THE
RAP ARE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT IN THE AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR. THE NAM SOUNDINGS
ON WEDNESDAY LOOK FAIRLY POTENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000...LI VALUES ARE -8 AND A WEAK INVERTED
V SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AMPLIFIES INTO SE
TX THU-SAT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. WESTERN AREAS COULD GET CLIPPED BY A
DISTURBANCE OR TWO BUT FOR THE MOST PART...FEEL SE TX WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID BUT GENERALLY RAIN FREE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF IS FLATTENED A BIT AND NUDGED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
BRING SOME OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER A BIT FURTHER EAST SUN-TUE. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY AND PROBABLY
STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BEFORE RETREATING NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
MON/TUE COULD BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED IN THE BAYS AND SLIGHTLY UNDER
CRITERIA OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SPEEDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BUMP UP TO 20KTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING SO AM GOING
TO HOIST THE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND WITH INTERMITTENT
PERIODS WHEREAS CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE REQUIRED.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED SEAS AND SURF WILL PRODUCE STRONGER THAN NORMAL RIP
CURRENTS (AS WAS OBSERVED BY GALVESTON BEACH PATROL TODAY) THRU
MIDWEEK.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  30  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 051501
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY AIR NEAR 850 MB BUT A SATURATED LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB. CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE
NEAR 700 MB WHILE SHV/LCH DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPPING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 80-82 DEGREES AT LCH/SHV AND WARMER
WITH A VALUE OF AROUND 86 DEGREES AT CRP. SATELLITE DERIVED PW
FIELD SHOW VALUES BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES. 300 MB WINDS ARE BROADLY
DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS WITH ALSO AID LIFT OVER THE REGION. CURRENT
FCST HAS HIGHER POPS EAST AND NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH SEEMS LIKE THE RIGHT CONFIGURATION. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. CURRENT FCST HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS SO OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND SKY GRIDS...WILL LET THE CURRENT FCST RIDE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
11Z SHRA ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES PROBABLY COMING DURING
THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. CEILINGS ARE TRICKY AT 05/11Z
WITH SOME SPOTS IFR...SOME SPOTS MVFR...AND SOME SPOTS VFR WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THINK MOST SITES SHOULD HAVE A BKN035 DECK BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CEILINGS (AND VISIBILITIES) IN/AROUND ANY SHRA/
TSRA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 051501
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY AIR NEAR 850 MB BUT A SATURATED LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB. CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE
NEAR 700 MB WHILE SHV/LCH DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPPING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 80-82 DEGREES AT LCH/SHV AND WARMER
WITH A VALUE OF AROUND 86 DEGREES AT CRP. SATELLITE DERIVED PW
FIELD SHOW VALUES BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES. 300 MB WINDS ARE BROADLY
DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS WITH ALSO AID LIFT OVER THE REGION. CURRENT
FCST HAS HIGHER POPS EAST AND NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH SEEMS LIKE THE RIGHT CONFIGURATION. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. CURRENT FCST HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS SO OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND SKY GRIDS...WILL LET THE CURRENT FCST RIDE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
11Z SHRA ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES PROBABLY COMING DURING
THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. CEILINGS ARE TRICKY AT 05/11Z
WITH SOME SPOTS IFR...SOME SPOTS MVFR...AND SOME SPOTS VFR WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THINK MOST SITES SHOULD HAVE A BKN035 DECK BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CEILINGS (AND VISIBILITIES) IN/AROUND ANY SHRA/
TSRA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 051501
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY AIR NEAR 850 MB BUT A SATURATED LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB. CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE
NEAR 700 MB WHILE SHV/LCH DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPPING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 80-82 DEGREES AT LCH/SHV AND WARMER
WITH A VALUE OF AROUND 86 DEGREES AT CRP. SATELLITE DERIVED PW
FIELD SHOW VALUES BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES. 300 MB WINDS ARE BROADLY
DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS WITH ALSO AID LIFT OVER THE REGION. CURRENT
FCST HAS HIGHER POPS EAST AND NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH SEEMS LIKE THE RIGHT CONFIGURATION. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. CURRENT FCST HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS SO OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND SKY GRIDS...WILL LET THE CURRENT FCST RIDE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
11Z SHRA ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES PROBABLY COMING DURING
THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. CEILINGS ARE TRICKY AT 05/11Z
WITH SOME SPOTS IFR...SOME SPOTS MVFR...AND SOME SPOTS VFR WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THINK MOST SITES SHOULD HAVE A BKN035 DECK BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CEILINGS (AND VISIBILITIES) IN/AROUND ANY SHRA/
TSRA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 051501
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY AIR NEAR 850 MB BUT A SATURATED LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB. CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE
NEAR 700 MB WHILE SHV/LCH DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPPING.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 80-82 DEGREES AT LCH/SHV AND WARMER
WITH A VALUE OF AROUND 86 DEGREES AT CRP. SATELLITE DERIVED PW
FIELD SHOW VALUES BETWEEN 1.6-1.7 INCHES. 300 MB WINDS ARE BROADLY
DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS WITH ALSO AID LIFT OVER THE REGION. CURRENT
FCST HAS HIGHER POPS EAST AND NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH SEEMS LIKE THE RIGHT CONFIGURATION. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. CURRENT FCST HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS SO OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
AND SKY GRIDS...WILL LET THE CURRENT FCST RIDE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
11Z SHRA ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES PROBABLY COMING DURING
THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. CEILINGS ARE TRICKY AT 05/11Z
WITH SOME SPOTS IFR...SOME SPOTS MVFR...AND SOME SPOTS VFR WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THINK MOST SITES SHOULD HAVE A BKN035 DECK BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CEILINGS (AND VISIBILITIES) IN/AROUND ANY SHRA/
TSRA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 051130
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
11Z SHRA ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES PROBABLY COMING DURING
THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. CEILINGS ARE TRICKY AT 05/11Z
WITH SOME SPOTS IFR...SOME SPOTS MVFR...AND SOME SPOTS VFR WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THINK MOST SITES SHOULD HAVE A BKN035 DECK BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CEILINGS (AND VISIBILITIES) IN/AROUND ANY SHRA/
TSRA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 051130
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
11Z SHRA ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES PROBABLY COMING DURING
THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. CEILINGS ARE TRICKY AT 05/11Z
WITH SOME SPOTS IFR...SOME SPOTS MVFR...AND SOME SPOTS VFR WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THINK MOST SITES SHOULD HAVE A BKN035 DECK BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CEILINGS (AND VISIBILITIES) IN/AROUND ANY SHRA/
TSRA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050908
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050908
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050908
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
TRANSPECOS/W TX WITH SE WINDS OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL BEND NW TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE LLANO ESTACADO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT
TOWARDS W TX. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING ACROSS NOR MEXICO INTO
TX WITH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
NOTED OVER THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TOMORROW. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IS AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE GULF WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
WATER VALUES. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DOES SHOW THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM LCH THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN E TX DUE TO THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY.

RECENT HRRR/WRF ARW RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK 40/50 POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1000
J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN TYPICAL STREET FLOODING
SHOULD ANY OF THE STORMS REALIZE 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE DAY TIME HEATING MAY BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S AND THAT IS CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO GO DOWN WED AND ARE RATHER LIMITED
THUR/FRI/SAT DESPITE WEAK CAPPING IF ANY AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES HANGING AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE PER GFS FRI WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
ESTABLISHED...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THERE NOT REALLY
BEING ANY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. ALSO OVERALL JET
STRUCTURE WHILE STARTING OUT FAVORABLE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. AFTER UPPER LOW OVER DESERT SW MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...JET BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS NOTED BEFORE
ON WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH THE JET THERE IS ALSO SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH MAY
OFF SET ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT. JET FINALLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE C
PLAINS AND MORE OF THE JET CORE MOVES OVER TX. SUN/MON IS ALSO
WHEN HIGHER 40 POPS COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOW WHETHER A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO SE TX. THE ECMWF STILL HAS A FRONT REACHING
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY FROPA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO MONDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERED RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS IS THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT. ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ON TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MON/TUE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  68  84  70  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  70  84  71  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  73  81  74  82 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


.AVIATION...
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE BPT AREA AND GOES PW CLEARLY SHOWS A
PLUME OF 1.4-1.6" PW WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN POISED JUST TO THE
EAST OF LCH AT 00Z SOUNDING LAUNCH. BUT EVEN SO THE LCH SOUNDING
SHOWING SIGNS OF MOISTENING UP. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AND
NEARLY STALL BY 15Z FROM BYY TO NEAR CLL. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DOTTING THE REGION BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF
MEXICO SEEMS TO HIGHLIGHT THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WED/02-06Z ACROSS THE
REGION. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY COMING UP AND AS SWELLS ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON THINKING WE WILL PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR THE 20-60NM
WATERS BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. FOR NOW HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE
SCEC.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TX. THEREFORE...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS SERN TX.
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF/ERN TX. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIESCENT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MANY
AREAS TOMORROW.

48

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


.AVIATION...
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE BPT AREA AND GOES PW CLEARLY SHOWS A
PLUME OF 1.4-1.6" PW WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN POISED JUST TO THE
EAST OF LCH AT 00Z SOUNDING LAUNCH. BUT EVEN SO THE LCH SOUNDING
SHOWING SIGNS OF MOISTENING UP. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AND
NEARLY STALL BY 15Z FROM BYY TO NEAR CLL. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DOTTING THE REGION BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF
MEXICO SEEMS TO HIGHLIGHT THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WED/02-06Z ACROSS THE
REGION. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY COMING UP AND AS SWELLS ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON THINKING WE WILL PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR THE 20-60NM
WATERS BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. FOR NOW HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE
SCEC.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TX. THEREFORE...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS SERN TX.
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF/ERN TX. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIESCENT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MANY
AREAS TOMORROW.

48

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


.AVIATION...
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE BPT AREA AND GOES PW CLEARLY SHOWS A
PLUME OF 1.4-1.6" PW WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN POISED JUST TO THE
EAST OF LCH AT 00Z SOUNDING LAUNCH. BUT EVEN SO THE LCH SOUNDING
SHOWING SIGNS OF MOISTENING UP. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AND
NEARLY STALL BY 15Z FROM BYY TO NEAR CLL. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DOTTING THE REGION BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF
MEXICO SEEMS TO HIGHLIGHT THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WED/02-06Z ACROSS THE
REGION. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY COMING UP AND AS SWELLS ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON THINKING WE WILL PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR THE 20-60NM
WATERS BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. FOR NOW HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE
SCEC.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TX. THEREFORE...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS SERN TX.
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF/ERN TX. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIESCENT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MANY
AREAS TOMORROW.

48

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


.AVIATION...
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE BPT AREA AND GOES PW CLEARLY SHOWS A
PLUME OF 1.4-1.6" PW WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN POISED JUST TO THE
EAST OF LCH AT 00Z SOUNDING LAUNCH. BUT EVEN SO THE LCH SOUNDING
SHOWING SIGNS OF MOISTENING UP. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AND
NEARLY STALL BY 15Z FROM BYY TO NEAR CLL. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DOTTING THE REGION BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF
MEXICO SEEMS TO HIGHLIGHT THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WED/02-06Z ACROSS THE
REGION. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY COMING UP AND AS SWELLS ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON THINKING WE WILL PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR THE 20-60NM
WATERS BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. FOR NOW HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE
SCEC.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TX. THEREFORE...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS SERN TX.
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF/ERN TX. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIESCENT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MANY
AREAS TOMORROW.

48

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050154
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TX. THEREFORE...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS SERN TX.
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF/ERN TX. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIESCENT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MANY
AREAS TOMORROW.

48

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050154
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TX. THEREFORE...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS SERN TX.
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF/ERN TX. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIESCENT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MANY
AREAS TOMORROW.

48

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW MEXICO.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
TIGHTENING AND NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN. PW
VALUES ARE 0.60 INCHES OVER THE EAST AND 1.40 INCHES OVER THE
WEST. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
THIS FEATURE IS SLOWING MOVING WEST AND SHOULD AFFECT SE TX ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NNE AND ALSO GENERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL APPROACH 1.60 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT SO FEEL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STAY WEST OF SE TX THROUGH
FRIDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND A
RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SO FEEL 20/30 POPS ARE STILL REQUIRED BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS GENERATES A SWATH OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THINGS DRY. FEEL THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER ECMWF/GEM.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SE TX WILL LIE
IN A RRQ AND MSTR LEVELS INCREASE TO 1.70 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  43

MARINE...
A TIGHT EAST TO WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL TRANSLATE TO STRENGTHENED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LONG DURATION FETCH WILL PULL IN AN EASTERN GULF
SWELL AND INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF FEET BY WEDNESDAY. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 050029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW MEXICO.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
TIGHTENING AND NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN. PW
VALUES ARE 0.60 INCHES OVER THE EAST AND 1.40 INCHES OVER THE
WEST. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
THIS FEATURE IS SLOWING MOVING WEST AND SHOULD AFFECT SE TX ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NNE AND ALSO GENERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL APPROACH 1.60 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT SO FEEL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STAY WEST OF SE TX THROUGH
FRIDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND A
RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SO FEEL 20/30 POPS ARE STILL REQUIRED BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS GENERATES A SWATH OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THINGS DRY. FEEL THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER ECMWF/GEM.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SE TX WILL LIE
IN A RRQ AND MSTR LEVELS INCREASE TO 1.70 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  43

MARINE...
A TIGHT EAST TO WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL TRANSLATE TO STRENGTHENED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LONG DURATION FETCH WILL PULL IN AN EASTERN GULF
SWELL AND INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF FEET BY WEDNESDAY. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 050029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW MEXICO.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
TIGHTENING AND NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN. PW
VALUES ARE 0.60 INCHES OVER THE EAST AND 1.40 INCHES OVER THE
WEST. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
THIS FEATURE IS SLOWING MOVING WEST AND SHOULD AFFECT SE TX ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NNE AND ALSO GENERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL APPROACH 1.60 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT SO FEEL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STAY WEST OF SE TX THROUGH
FRIDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND A
RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SO FEEL 20/30 POPS ARE STILL REQUIRED BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS GENERATES A SWATH OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THINGS DRY. FEEL THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER ECMWF/GEM.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SE TX WILL LIE
IN A RRQ AND MSTR LEVELS INCREASE TO 1.70 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  43

MARINE...
A TIGHT EAST TO WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL TRANSLATE TO STRENGTHENED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LONG DURATION FETCH WILL PULL IN AN EASTERN GULF
SWELL AND INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF FEET BY WEDNESDAY. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041945
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW MEXICO.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
TIGHTENING AND NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN. PW
VALUES ARE 0.60 INCHES OVER THE EAST AND 1.40 INCHES OVER THE
WEST. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
THIS FEATURE IS SLOWING MOVING WEST AND SHOULD AFFECT SE TX ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NNE AND ALSO GENERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL APPROACH 1.60 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT SO FEEL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STAY WEST OF SE TX THROUGH
FRIDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND A
RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SO FEEL 20/30 POPS ARE STILL REQUIRED BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS GENERATES A SWATH OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THINGS DRY. FEEL THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER ECMWF/GEM.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SE TX WILL LIE
IN A RRQ AND MSTR LEVELS INCREASE TO 1.70 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  43

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT EAST TO WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL TRANSLATE TO STRENGTHENED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LONG DURATION FETCH WILL PULL IN AN EASTERN GULF
SWELL AND INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF FEET BY WEDNESDAY. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041945
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW MEXICO.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
TIGHTENING AND NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN. PW
VALUES ARE 0.60 INCHES OVER THE EAST AND 1.40 INCHES OVER THE
WEST. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
THIS FEATURE IS SLOWING MOVING WEST AND SHOULD AFFECT SE TX ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NNE AND ALSO GENERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL APPROACH 1.60 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT SO FEEL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THINGS BECOME LESS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STAY WEST OF SE TX THROUGH
FRIDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND A
RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SO FEEL 20/30 POPS ARE STILL REQUIRED BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS GENERATES A SWATH OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THINGS DRY. FEEL THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER ECMWF/GEM.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SE TX WILL LIE
IN A RRQ AND MSTR LEVELS INCREASE TO 1.70 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  43

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT EAST TO WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL TRANSLATE TO STRENGTHENED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LONG DURATION FETCH WILL PULL IN AN EASTERN GULF
SWELL AND INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF FEET BY WEDNESDAY. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041756
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF A HIGH LOWER ALTITUDE CUMULUS DECK...MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLIES THE GENERAL BACKGROUND WIND FIELD. EASTERLY MID-
LEVEL STEERING WINDS HAS ADVECTED IN A RELATIVELY DRIER WESTERN
GULF AIR MASS TODAY BUT...AS THESE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE UP. A TIGHT
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING THE MODERATE ONSHORE
TRANSPORT OF SOUTHERN(WEST)-BASED HIGHER MOISTURE...WITH A STRENGTHENED
EARLY TUESDAY LOW LEVEL JET...WILL THICKEN CLOUDS TO MVFR CATS THROUGH
THE LATTER PERIOD. EITHER A SOUTHWESTERN WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...OR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE...WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION PROBS. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN UNSTABLE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE TO MENTION
LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDER. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE BENEATH 700 MB AND PW
VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. 12Z LCH SHOWED A PW VALUE OF 0.75 INCHES
AND A DRY PROFILE. SATELLITE DERIVED PW CONFIRMS THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HGX CWA TODAY. FEEL THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN. INCREASED SKY GRIDS OUT WEST AS WELL. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.  43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. 39

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEW POINT TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE
FOUND JUST ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY
SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS
TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED. 39

&&

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  67  82  68 /  20  40  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  68  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  79  73  81  73 /  30  40  30  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041756
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF A HIGH LOWER ALTITUDE CUMULUS DECK...MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLIES THE GENERAL BACKGROUND WIND FIELD. EASTERLY MID-
LEVEL STEERING WINDS HAS ADVECTED IN A RELATIVELY DRIER WESTERN
GULF AIR MASS TODAY BUT...AS THESE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE UP. A TIGHT
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING THE MODERATE ONSHORE
TRANSPORT OF SOUTHERN(WEST)-BASED HIGHER MOISTURE...WITH A STRENGTHENED
EARLY TUESDAY LOW LEVEL JET...WILL THICKEN CLOUDS TO MVFR CATS THROUGH
THE LATTER PERIOD. EITHER A SOUTHWESTERN WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...OR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE...WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION PROBS. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN UNSTABLE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE TO MENTION
LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDER. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE BENEATH 700 MB AND PW
VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. 12Z LCH SHOWED A PW VALUE OF 0.75 INCHES
AND A DRY PROFILE. SATELLITE DERIVED PW CONFIRMS THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HGX CWA TODAY. FEEL THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN. INCREASED SKY GRIDS OUT WEST AS WELL. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.  43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. 39

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEW POINT TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE
FOUND JUST ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY
SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS
TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED. 39

&&

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  67  82  68 /  20  40  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  68  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  79  73  81  73 /  30  40  30  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041756
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF A HIGH LOWER ALTITUDE CUMULUS DECK...MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLIES THE GENERAL BACKGROUND WIND FIELD. EASTERLY MID-
LEVEL STEERING WINDS HAS ADVECTED IN A RELATIVELY DRIER WESTERN
GULF AIR MASS TODAY BUT...AS THESE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE UP. A TIGHT
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING THE MODERATE ONSHORE
TRANSPORT OF SOUTHERN(WEST)-BASED HIGHER MOISTURE...WITH A STRENGTHENED
EARLY TUESDAY LOW LEVEL JET...WILL THICKEN CLOUDS TO MVFR CATS THROUGH
THE LATTER PERIOD. EITHER A SOUTHWESTERN WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...OR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE...WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION PROBS. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN UNSTABLE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE TO MENTION
LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDER. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE BENEATH 700 MB AND PW
VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. 12Z LCH SHOWED A PW VALUE OF 0.75 INCHES
AND A DRY PROFILE. SATELLITE DERIVED PW CONFIRMS THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HGX CWA TODAY. FEEL THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN. INCREASED SKY GRIDS OUT WEST AS WELL. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.  43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. 39

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEW POINT TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE
FOUND JUST ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY
SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS
TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED. 39

&&

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  67  82  68 /  20  40  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  68  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  79  73  81  73 /  30  40  30  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041756
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF A HIGH LOWER ALTITUDE CUMULUS DECK...MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLIES THE GENERAL BACKGROUND WIND FIELD. EASTERLY MID-
LEVEL STEERING WINDS HAS ADVECTED IN A RELATIVELY DRIER WESTERN
GULF AIR MASS TODAY BUT...AS THESE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT...LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE UP. A TIGHT
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING THE MODERATE ONSHORE
TRANSPORT OF SOUTHERN(WEST)-BASED HIGHER MOISTURE...WITH A STRENGTHENED
EARLY TUESDAY LOW LEVEL JET...WILL THICKEN CLOUDS TO MVFR CATS THROUGH
THE LATTER PERIOD. EITHER A SOUTHWESTERN WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...OR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE...WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION PROBS. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN UNSTABLE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE TO MENTION
LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDER. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE BENEATH 700 MB AND PW
VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. 12Z LCH SHOWED A PW VALUE OF 0.75 INCHES
AND A DRY PROFILE. SATELLITE DERIVED PW CONFIRMS THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HGX CWA TODAY. FEEL THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN. INCREASED SKY GRIDS OUT WEST AS WELL. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.  43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. 39

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEW POINT TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE
FOUND JUST ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY
SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS
TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED. 39

&&

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  67  82  68 /  20  40  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  68  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  79  73  81  73 /  30  40  30  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041533
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE BENEATH 700 MB AND PW
VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. 12Z LCH SHOWED A PW VALUE OF 0.75 INCHES
AND A DRY PROFILE. SATELLITE DERIVED PW CONFIRMS THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HGX CWA TODAY. FEEL THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN. INCREASED SKY GRIDS OUT WEST AS WELL. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY (GENERALLY
>10 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY BKN DECKS TO OCCUR AROUND
4000 FEET OR ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041533
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE BENEATH 700 MB AND PW
VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. 12Z LCH SHOWED A PW VALUE OF 0.75 INCHES
AND A DRY PROFILE. SATELLITE DERIVED PW CONFIRMS THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HGX CWA TODAY. FEEL THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN. INCREASED SKY GRIDS OUT WEST AS WELL. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY (GENERALLY
>10 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY BKN DECKS TO OCCUR AROUND
4000 FEET OR ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041533
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE BENEATH 700 MB AND PW
VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. 12Z LCH SHOWED A PW VALUE OF 0.75 INCHES
AND A DRY PROFILE. SATELLITE DERIVED PW CONFIRMS THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HGX CWA TODAY. FEEL THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN. INCREASED SKY GRIDS OUT WEST AS WELL. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY (GENERALLY
>10 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY BKN DECKS TO OCCUR AROUND
4000 FEET OR ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041533
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE BENEATH 700 MB AND PW
VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. 12Z LCH SHOWED A PW VALUE OF 0.75 INCHES
AND A DRY PROFILE. SATELLITE DERIVED PW CONFIRMS THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HGX CWA TODAY. FEEL THE MOISTURE IS
DEEP ENOUGH NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN. INCREASED SKY GRIDS OUT WEST AS WELL. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY (GENERALLY
>10 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY BKN DECKS TO OCCUR AROUND
4000 FEET OR ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY (GENERALLY
>10 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY BKN DECKS TO OCCUR AROUND
4000 FEET OR ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY (GENERALLY
>10 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY BKN DECKS TO OCCUR AROUND
4000 FEET OR ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY (GENERALLY
>10 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY BKN DECKS TO OCCUR AROUND
4000 FEET OR ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY (GENERALLY
>10 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY BKN DECKS TO OCCUR AROUND
4000 FEET OR ABOVE. COULD SEE SOME SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041042
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041042
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041042
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 041042
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF MATAGORDA HAVE SLOWLY MADE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR 17 POPS AND MENTION OF ISO
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 040853
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040853
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. OVERALL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR KCXO WHERE TEMP HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 50S AND CALM WINDS. TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE HUMID THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE FOUND JUST
ALONG THE COAST AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. TODAY SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AN ISO SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH C TX WHICH COULD CLIP AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS THAT WILL BE TRACKED. THE FIRST IS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND IS NW OF THE PAC NW. SYNOPTIC
MODELS GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE S ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE C PLAINS AND C ROCKIES
TUESDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PAC NW. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON WED AS THE SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER N CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS ON THUR BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRI AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO NEXT MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH
WILL BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. FORECAST WILL KEEP 40 POPS ON TUE AS
INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE REACHES SE TX FROM THE GULF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WILL LITTLE
CAPPING...SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SO THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CAPPING WITH 850MB
TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM THE GULF. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES BUT THINK WITH STORM MOTIONS OF
20KTS FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

BY WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS TO DROP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIP WATER AND REALLY WEAK IF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIFT.
WHILE A JET STREAK COMES INTO W TX THERE IS STILL SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET OVER E TX LEADING TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENOUGH SW FOR THERE TO BE A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THUR
BUT STILL DEALING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. JET DOES BECOME A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT IN THE AFTERNOON SO COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. OVERALL KEPT 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON DAY 8 OF
THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME AS JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AND
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ERODE ANY CAPPING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL
A WEEK OUT SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR GFS/ECMWF TO CHANGE THEIR
SOLUTIONS BUT THE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS WELL NOTED.

39

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEK UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  81  67  82 /  10  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  67  81  68  84 /  10  30  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  71  79  73  81 /  10  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 040446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. T/TD SPREADS NARROWING BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN UP SO
ONLY EXPECTING SOME LIGHT FOG FOR THE USUAL FOG PRONE SITES
LBX/SGR/CXO TOWARD MORNING. TOMORROW ANOTHER QUICK WARMUP WITH
LIMITED LL MOISTURE. GOES TPW LOOP SHOWING THE POCKET OF DRY AIR
OVER THE GULF HEADED INTO SWLA/SETX OVERNIGHT AND THE
DEEPER/RICHER MOISTURE OVER HT EAST-CENTRAL GULF. CU LOOKS LIKELY
AGAIN TOMORROW WITH STRONGER SE FLOW. MORE RICH MOISTURE SHOULD
ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCSH TO GLS AFTER 04Z TUE AND AFTER 10Z AT IAH.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE
TX TODAY (PER CURRENT DWPTS)...WINDS AT/JUST ABOVE THE SFC CONT-
INUING AT A DECENT CLIP THIS EVENING. THUS ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY
FOG AT BEST OVERNIGHT. GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE CAP AND SO THE TALLER CU TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND MIFG/PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. TOMORROW THE DEEP DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BUT LL DO MOISTEN UP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SE
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY FOR TUESDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. T/TD SPREADS NARROWING BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN UP SO
ONLY EXPECTING SOME LIGHT FOG FOR THE USUAL FOG PRONE SITES
LBX/SGR/CXO TOWARD MORNING. TOMORROW ANOTHER QUICK WARMUP WITH
LIMITED LL MOISTURE. GOES TPW LOOP SHOWING THE POCKET OF DRY AIR
OVER THE GULF HEADED INTO SWLA/SETX OVERNIGHT AND THE
DEEPER/RICHER MOISTURE OVER HT EAST-CENTRAL GULF. CU LOOKS LIKELY
AGAIN TOMORROW WITH STRONGER SE FLOW. MORE RICH MOISTURE SHOULD
ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HAVE
INTRODUCED A VCSH TO GLS AFTER 04Z TUE AND AFTER 10Z AT IAH.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE
TX TODAY (PER CURRENT DWPTS)...WINDS AT/JUST ABOVE THE SFC CONT-
INUING AT A DECENT CLIP THIS EVENING. THUS ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY
FOG AT BEST OVERNIGHT. GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE CAP AND SO THE TALLER CU TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND MIFG/PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. TOMORROW THE DEEP DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BUT LL DO MOISTEN UP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SE
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY FOR TUESDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 040135
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
835 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE
TX TODAY (PER CURRENT DWPTS)...WINDS AT/JUST ABOVE THE SFC CONT-
INUING AT A DECENT CLIP THIS EVENING. THUS ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY
FOG AT BEST OVERNIGHT. GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE CAP AND SO THE TALLER CU TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND MIFG/PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. TOMORROW THE DEEP DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BUT LL DO MOISTEN UP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SE
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY FOR TUESDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040032
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE CAP AND SO THE TALLER CU TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND MIFG/PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. TOMORROW THE DEEP DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BUT LL DO MOISTEN UP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SE
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY FOR TUESDAY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES DECREASE A BIT
GOING INTO MONDAY SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON TUES/WED AIDING LIFT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES
PEAK AROUND 1.7 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL COMPETE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FEEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. 43

MARINE...
A TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN SEABOARD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES WILL GENERATE AND
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS
FETCH WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION...POSSIBLY BRIEF OFFSHORE
ADVISORY...LEVELS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERN
GULF HIGHER SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND PICK UP AVERAGE HIGH THIRD SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF
FEET GOING INTO MID WEEK. PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 040032
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE CAP AND SO THE TALLER CU TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND MIFG/PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. TOMORROW THE DEEP DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BUT LL DO MOISTEN UP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SE
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY FOR TUESDAY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES DECREASE A BIT
GOING INTO MONDAY SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON TUES/WED AIDING LIFT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES
PEAK AROUND 1.7 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL COMPETE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FEEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. 43

MARINE...
A TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN SEABOARD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES WILL GENERATE AND
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS
FETCH WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION...POSSIBLY BRIEF OFFSHORE
ADVISORY...LEVELS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERN
GULF HIGHER SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND PICK UP AVERAGE HIGH THIRD SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF
FEET GOING INTO MID WEEK. PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040032
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE CAP AND SO THE TALLER CU TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND MIFG/PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. TOMORROW THE DEEP DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BUT LL DO MOISTEN UP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SE
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY FOR TUESDAY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES DECREASE A BIT
GOING INTO MONDAY SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON TUES/WED AIDING LIFT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES
PEAK AROUND 1.7 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL COMPETE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FEEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. 43

MARINE...
A TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN SEABOARD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES WILL GENERATE AND
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS
FETCH WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION...POSSIBLY BRIEF OFFSHORE
ADVISORY...LEVELS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERN
GULF HIGHER SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND PICK UP AVERAGE HIGH THIRD SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF
FEET GOING INTO MID WEEK. PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 040032
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE CAP AND SO THE TALLER CU TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND MIFG/PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. TOMORROW THE DEEP DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BUT LL DO MOISTEN UP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SE
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY FOR TUESDAY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES DECREASE A BIT
GOING INTO MONDAY SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON TUES/WED AIDING LIFT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES
PEAK AROUND 1.7 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL COMPETE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FEEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. 43

MARINE...
A TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN SEABOARD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES WILL GENERATE AND
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS
FETCH WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION...POSSIBLY BRIEF OFFSHORE
ADVISORY...LEVELS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERN
GULF HIGHER SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND PICK UP AVERAGE HIGH THIRD SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF
FEET GOING INTO MID WEEK. PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES DECREASE A BIT
GOING INTO MONDAY SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON TUES/WED AIDING LIFT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES
PEAK AROUND 1.7 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL COMPETE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FEEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. 43

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN SEABOARD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES WILL GENERATE AND
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS
FETCH WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION...POSSIBLY BRIEF OFFSHORE
ADVISORY...LEVELS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERN
GULF HIGHER SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND PICK UP AVERAGE HIGH THIRD SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF
FEET GOING INTO MID WEEK. PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES DECREASE A BIT
GOING INTO MONDAY SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON TUES/WED AIDING LIFT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES
PEAK AROUND 1.7 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL COMPETE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FEEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. 43

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN SEABOARD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES WILL GENERATE AND
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS
FETCH WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION...POSSIBLY BRIEF OFFSHORE
ADVISORY...LEVELS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERN
GULF HIGHER SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND PICK UP AVERAGE HIGH THIRD SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF
FEET GOING INTO MID WEEK. PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 031758
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CU FIELD THROUGH DAYTIME
HOURS...DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED ONSHORE WINDS
WILL DISPLAY MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AS THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE WEST-TO-EAST BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN STATES
HIGH PRESSURE AN LOWERING WEST TEXAS PRESSURE. EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION...ALTHOUGH MORE INTERIOR RURAL HUBS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF
MVFR SHALLOW BR DEVELOPMENT. REPEAT PERFORMANCE TOMORROW...EXTENSIVE
INLAND CU FIELD (WITH MORE WESTERN CI STREAMING OVER) AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD SE TX. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKLY
DIVERGENT OVER COASTAL TEXAS AS WELL. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE
HRRR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND FEEL THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. TWEAKED SKY
GRIDS TO SHOW A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS FCST LOOKS REASONABLE
SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM. 43


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM
INLAND SO MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. 39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  83  65  81  68 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  81  71  81  73 /  10  10  10  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031758
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CU FIELD THROUGH DAYTIME
HOURS...DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED ONSHORE WINDS
WILL DISPLAY MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AS THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE WEST-TO-EAST BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN STATES
HIGH PRESSURE AN LOWERING WEST TEXAS PRESSURE. EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION...ALTHOUGH MORE INTERIOR RURAL HUBS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF
MVFR SHALLOW BR DEVELOPMENT. REPEAT PERFORMANCE TOMORROW...EXTENSIVE
INLAND CU FIELD (WITH MORE WESTERN CI STREAMING OVER) AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD SE TX. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKLY
DIVERGENT OVER COASTAL TEXAS AS WELL. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE
HRRR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND FEEL THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. TWEAKED SKY
GRIDS TO SHOW A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS FCST LOOKS REASONABLE
SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM. 43


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM
INLAND SO MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. 39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  83  65  81  68 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  81  71  81  73 /  10  10  10  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031758
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CU FIELD THROUGH DAYTIME
HOURS...DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED ONSHORE WINDS
WILL DISPLAY MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AS THE LARGE SCALE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE WEST-TO-EAST BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN STATES
HIGH PRESSURE AN LOWERING WEST TEXAS PRESSURE. EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION...ALTHOUGH MORE INTERIOR RURAL HUBS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF
MVFR SHALLOW BR DEVELOPMENT. REPEAT PERFORMANCE TOMORROW...EXTENSIVE
INLAND CU FIELD (WITH MORE WESTERN CI STREAMING OVER) AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD SE TX. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKLY
DIVERGENT OVER COASTAL TEXAS AS WELL. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE
HRRR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND FEEL THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. TWEAKED SKY
GRIDS TO SHOW A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS FCST LOOKS REASONABLE
SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM. 43


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM
INLAND SO MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. 39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  83  65  81  68 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  81  71  81  73 /  10  10  10  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 031531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1031 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD SE TX. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKLY
DIVERGENT OVER COASTAL TEXAS AS WELL. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE
HRRR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND FEEL THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. TWEAKED SKY
GRIDS TO SHOW A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS FCST LOOKS
REASONABLE SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 031143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 031143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 031143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030927
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...46




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030927
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...46





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