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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
425 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING...TRANSITIONING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...WILL ONLY REINFORCE THIS STABLE RESIDENT
NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS
TRAVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO MID-WEEK...CIRRUS SPILLING
DOWN ALONG ITS EASTERN LEG WILL MAKE FOR A PARTIALLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. NORTH(EAST)ERN MEXICO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BACK TODAY`S WESTERLIES
ONSHORE BY TOMORROW. THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT NEAR 10 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT BREEZES
WILL AFFORD A COUPLE OF MORE CHILLY EARLY MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE
UPPER 40S.

ONSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MID WEEK FLATTENED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A DEVELOPING DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA REGION LARGE UPPER LOW.
GREAT BASIN ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH INTO A BROAD OPEN WAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS OVERALL EASTERN PROGRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST IS FOR A DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH/LOW TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SATURDAY...WITH ITS NORTHEASTERN EVOLUTION INTO
THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FROM SLIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY) TO LIKELY (LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY)
PER MORE EFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
...ALONG WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM EASTERN TEXAS FALLING
UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET STREAM. THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EARLY WEEK (FEBRUARY) WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS SOLUTION SLUGGISHLY HANGS THE CORE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EURO PLACES A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW (SANS ANY TROUGHING) OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR DAYS 7 AND
8. CURRENTLY HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE NATURAL SYNOPTIC TREND
OF THE ECMWF...COLD AND DRY WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS TO BEGIN
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
OF THE FCST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEA FOG NEAR
THE GLS BAY AREA ONCE ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WED NT. DON`T SEE DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING H20 TEMPS BY MUCH SO PROBABLY
WON`T MENTION ATTM BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRI WITH RESULTING INCREASING NE
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CRITERIA. WINDS VEER BACK
TO THE SE SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT (STRONGER) FRONT PENCILED IN FOR
SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WX PRIOR TO FROPA. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE CIRRUS COVERAGE
TODAY. FCST GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG
OVERNIGHT. MAY MENTION AT THE MORE SUCEPTIBLE SITES BUT PROBABLY
WON`T GO AS LOW A GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  76  53  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  47  75  51  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  55  69  55  69 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47





000
FXUS64 KHGX 271025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
425 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING...TRANSITIONING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...WILL ONLY REINFORCE THIS STABLE RESIDENT
NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS
TRAVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO MID-WEEK...CIRRUS SPILLING
DOWN ALONG ITS EASTERN LEG WILL MAKE FOR A PARTIALLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. NORTH(EAST)ERN MEXICO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BACK TODAY`S WESTERLIES
ONSHORE BY TOMORROW. THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT NEAR 10 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT BREEZES
WILL AFFORD A COUPLE OF MORE CHILLY EARLY MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE
UPPER 40S.

ONSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MID WEEK FLATTENED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A DEVELOPING DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA REGION LARGE UPPER LOW.
GREAT BASIN ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH INTO A BROAD OPEN WAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS OVERALL EASTERN PROGRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST IS FOR A DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH/LOW TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SATURDAY...WITH ITS NORTHEASTERN EVOLUTION INTO
THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FROM SLIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY) TO LIKELY (LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY)
PER MORE EFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
...ALONG WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM EASTERN TEXAS FALLING
UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET STREAM. THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EARLY WEEK (FEBRUARY) WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS SOLUTION SLUGGISHLY HANGS THE CORE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EURO PLACES A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW (SANS ANY TROUGHING) OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR DAYS 7 AND
8. CURRENTLY HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE NATURAL SYNOPTIC TREND
OF THE ECMWF...COLD AND DRY WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS TO BEGIN
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
OF THE FCST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEA FOG NEAR
THE GLS BAY AREA ONCE ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WED NT. DON`T SEE DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING H20 TEMPS BY MUCH SO PROBABLY
WON`T MENTION ATTM BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRI WITH RESULTING INCREASING NE
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CRITERIA. WINDS VEER BACK
TO THE SE SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT (STRONGER) FRONT PENCILED IN FOR
SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WX PRIOR TO FROPA. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE CIRRUS COVERAGE
TODAY. FCST GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG
OVERNIGHT. MAY MENTION AT THE MORE SUCEPTIBLE SITES BUT PROBABLY
WON`T GO AS LOW A GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  76  53  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  47  75  51  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  55  69  55  69 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47




000
FXUS64 KHGX 270511
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1111 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AGAIN...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE WITH CIRRUS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS. VFR CONDS FOR THE NEXT
24-30 HOURS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM SHOWED A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR ABILENE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WITH A LOOSE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
/ALLOWING LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS/. OTHERWISE... A THICK CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S /NEAR 50 ALONG
THE COAST/.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI
NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  75  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  75  47  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  68  55  68  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 270511
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1111 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AGAIN...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE WITH CIRRUS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS. VFR CONDS FOR THE NEXT
24-30 HOURS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM SHOWED A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR ABILENE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WITH A LOOSE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
/ALLOWING LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS/. OTHERWISE... A THICK CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S /NEAR 50 ALONG
THE COAST/.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI
NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  75  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  75  47  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  68  55  68  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 270404
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM SHOWED A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR ABILIENE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WITH A LOOSE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
/ALLOWING LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS/. OTHERWISE... A THICK CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S /NEAR 50 ALONG
THE COAST/.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
MORE OF THE SAME...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT W-NW SFC
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORN-
ING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  48  75  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  46  75  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  52  68  55  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 270404
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM SHOWED A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR ABILIENE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WITH A LOOSE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
/ALLOWING LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS/. OTHERWISE... A THICK CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S /NEAR 50 ALONG
THE COAST/.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
MORE OF THE SAME...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT W-NW SFC
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORN-
ING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  48  75  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  46  75  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  52  68  55  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 262313
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE OF THE SAME...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT W-NW SFC
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORN-
ING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  75  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  75  47  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  68  55  68  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 262313
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE OF THE SAME...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT W-NW SFC
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORN-
ING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  75  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  75  47  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  68  55  68  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 262133
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORN-
ING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  75  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  75  47  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  68  55  68  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41




000
FXUS64 KHGX 262133
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORN-
ING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  75  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  75  47  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  68  55  68  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41





000
FXUS64 KHGX 261826
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE 18Z TAFS AS DRY/QUIET WX PREVAILS.
GENERAL VFR UFN. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SFC ANALYSIS TODAY HAS A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO W TX
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE BIG
BEND AND INTO S TX. LIGHT W WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH
WEAK IF ANY COLD ADVECTION. BASED ON LAMP/RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY WEST OF I-45 BUT
EVEN THINK HOUSTON AREA COULD REACH UPPER 60S. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

ALL EYES ARE NOW ON THE EAST COAST AS UPPER LOW IS ABOUT TO EMERGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACK N TOWARDS
NEW ENG. BLIZZARD SHOULD CRANK UP TONIGHT AND TUE. MAIN IMPACTS
FELT HERE MAY BE FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS IF YOU ARE HEADED EAST THIS
WEEK.

39

CLIMATE... COLLEGE STATION`S (CLL) JANUARY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.64
INCHES THROUGH THE 25TH RANKS AS THE 7TH WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  48  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  51  66  54  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 261826
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE 18Z TAFS AS DRY/QUIET WX PREVAILS.
GENERAL VFR UFN. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SFC ANALYSIS TODAY HAS A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO W TX
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE BIG
BEND AND INTO S TX. LIGHT W WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH
WEAK IF ANY COLD ADVECTION. BASED ON LAMP/RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY WEST OF I-45 BUT
EVEN THINK HOUSTON AREA COULD REACH UPPER 60S. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

ALL EYES ARE NOW ON THE EAST COAST AS UPPER LOW IS ABOUT TO EMERGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACK N TOWARDS
NEW ENG. BLIZZARD SHOULD CRANK UP TONIGHT AND TUE. MAIN IMPACTS
FELT HERE MAY BE FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS IF YOU ARE HEADED EAST THIS
WEEK.

39

CLIMATE... COLLEGE STATION`S (CLL) JANUARY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.64
INCHES THROUGH THE 25TH RANKS AS THE 7TH WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  48  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  51  66  54  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 261629
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1029 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS TODAY HAS A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO W TX
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE BIG
BEND AND INTO S TX. LIGHT W WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH
WEAK IF ANY COLD ADVECTION. BASED ON LAMP/RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY WEST OF I-45 BUT
EVEN THINK HOUSTON AREA COULD REACH UPPER 60S. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

ALL EYES ARE NOW ON THE EAST COAST AS UPPER LOW IS ABOUT TO EMERGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACK N TOWARDS
NEW ENG. BLIZZARD SHOULD CRANK UP TONIGHT AND TUE. MAIN IMPACTS
FELT HERE MAY BE FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS IF YOU ARE HEADED EAST THIS
WEEK.

39

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. THE AREA WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES COME
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO COME BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST LONG
AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY
ORGANIZING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST IN/AROUND THE BAJA PENINSULA.
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. 42


CLIMATE...
COLLEGE STATION`S (CLL) JANUARY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.64 INCHES THROUGH
THE 25TH RANKS AS THE 7TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  48  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  51  66  54  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 261629
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1029 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS TODAY HAS A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO W TX
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE BIG
BEND AND INTO S TX. LIGHT W WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH
WEAK IF ANY COLD ADVECTION. BASED ON LAMP/RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY WEST OF I-45 BUT
EVEN THINK HOUSTON AREA COULD REACH UPPER 60S. OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

ALL EYES ARE NOW ON THE EAST COAST AS UPPER LOW IS ABOUT TO EMERGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND THEN TRACK N TOWARDS
NEW ENG. BLIZZARD SHOULD CRANK UP TONIGHT AND TUE. MAIN IMPACTS
FELT HERE MAY BE FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS IF YOU ARE HEADED EAST THIS
WEEK.

39

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. THE AREA WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES COME
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO COME BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST LONG
AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY
ORGANIZING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST IN/AROUND THE BAJA PENINSULA.
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. 42


CLIMATE...
COLLEGE STATION`S (CLL) JANUARY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.64 INCHES THROUGH
THE 25TH RANKS AS THE 7TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  48  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  51  66  54  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 261151
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR/SKC. MORNING WIND (SPEED) SHEAR ISSUES COULD EXIST...ESPECIALLY
OVER MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS 30-35 KT WINDS AT OR AROUND 1.5 TO
2K FT EXIST OVER SUB 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. EARLY DAY LIGHT NW WIND
WILL BECOME VARIABLE OR BACK MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. THE AREA WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES COME
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO COME BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST LONG
AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY
ORGANIZING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST IN/AROUND THE BAJA PENINSULA.
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. 42

&&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN TODAY`S
NORTHWEST WINDS...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND TWO FEET THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE GULF TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL HAVE EARLY WEEK WESTERLIES
BECOMING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIM THE NORTHERN
GULF EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING STRENGTHENED WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. 31

&&

CLIMATE...
COLLEGE STATION`S (CLL) JANUARY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.64 INCHES THROUGH
THE 25TH RANKS AS THE 7TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  48  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              66  47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  51  66  54  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 261151
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR/SKC. MORNING WIND (SPEED) SHEAR ISSUES COULD EXIST...ESPECIALLY
OVER MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS 30-35 KT WINDS AT OR AROUND 1.5 TO
2K FT EXIST OVER SUB 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. EARLY DAY LIGHT NW WIND
WILL BECOME VARIABLE OR BACK MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. THE AREA WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES COME
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO COME BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST LONG
AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY
ORGANIZING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST IN/AROUND THE BAJA PENINSULA.
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. 42

&&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN TODAY`S
NORTHWEST WINDS...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND TWO FEET THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE GULF TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL HAVE EARLY WEEK WESTERLIES
BECOMING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIM THE NORTHERN
GULF EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING STRENGTHENED WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. 31

&&

CLIMATE...
COLLEGE STATION`S (CLL) JANUARY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.64 INCHES THROUGH
THE 25TH RANKS AS THE 7TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  48  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              66  47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  51  66  54  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 261005
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE MORE QUIET WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS.  THE AREA WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES COME
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.  WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO COME BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST LONG
AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY
ORGANIZING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST IN/AROUND THE BAJA PENINSULA.
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.  42
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN TODAY`S
NORTHWEST WINDS...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND TWO FEET THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE GULF TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL HAVE EARLY WEEK WESTERLIES
BECOMING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIM THE NORTHERN
GULF EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING STRENGTHENED WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLLEGE STATION`S (CLL) JANUARY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 6.64 INCHES THROUGH
THE 25TH RANKS AS THE 7TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  48  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              66  47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  51  66  54  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 260526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-45
KNOTS AT 925 MB. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT WILL HELP DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 260526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-45
KNOTS AT 925 MB. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT WILL HELP DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 260310
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT WILL HELP DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. RAP AND NAM12 925 MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BETWEEN 03-15Z WHILE SFC WINDS
DROP TO AROUND 6-8 KTS. HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 260310
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT WILL HELP DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. RAP AND NAM12 925 MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BETWEEN 03-15Z WHILE SFC WINDS
DROP TO AROUND 6-8 KTS. HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 252326
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. RAP AND NAM12 925 MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BETWEEN 03-15Z WHILE SFC WINDS
DROP TO AROUND 6-8 KTS. HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 252326
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
526 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. RAP AND NAM12 925 MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BETWEEN 03-15Z WHILE SFC WINDS
DROP TO AROUND 6-8 KTS. HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 252100
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

&&

.MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 252100
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

&&

.MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251733
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT. VFR. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST OBS AT 16Z SHOW WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW AT
KCLL/KUTS/KLFT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MAINLY BE A WIND SHIFT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TOMORROW...I.E. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER
60S V LOW/MID 60S TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE OVER MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE E/SE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM
ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE AND GO FULL BEAST MODE BOMBING OUT AS IT MOVES JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR SE TX THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  42  65  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  43  65  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  47  61  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...41




000
FXUS64 KHGX 251733
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT. VFR. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST OBS AT 16Z SHOW WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW AT
KCLL/KUTS/KLFT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MAINLY BE A WIND SHIFT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TOMORROW...I.E. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER
60S V LOW/MID 60S TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE OVER MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE E/SE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM
ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE AND GO FULL BEAST MODE BOMBING OUT AS IT MOVES JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR SE TX THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  42  65  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  43  65  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  47  61  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...41





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251605
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1005 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST OBS AT 16Z SHOW WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW AT
KCLL/KUTS/KLFT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MAINLY BE A WIND SHIFT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TOMORROW...I.E. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER
60S V LOW/MID 60S TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE OVER MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE E/SE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM
ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE AND GO FULL BEAST MODE BOMBING OUT AS IT MOVES JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR SE TX THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

39

&&



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING TODAY IN/AROUND THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER
(AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A BIG TIME NORTHEASTERN U.S. SNOW STORM) WILL
DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. IT COULD GET A LITTLE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE GRADUALLY WARMING
AS WE HEAD ON INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST VERY
LONG AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. NEXT WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY ORGANIZING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOL AND CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEKEND
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.  42



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  42  65  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  43  65  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  47  61  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 251123
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. JUST CIRRUS MAKING THIS TAF PACKAGE A WIND FORECAST. AN
APPROACHING CENTRAL TEXAS MORNING COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE
DOWNSTREAM WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE ITS AFTERNOON
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION VEERS MODERATE WESTERLIES MORE NORTHERLY.
OF NOTE...20-30 KNOT JUST OFF-THE-SURFACE WINDS...IN TANDEM WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAY HAVE LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING TODAY IN/AROUND THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER
(AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A BIG TIME NORTHEASTERN U.S. SNOW STORM) WILL
DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. IT COULD GET A LITTLE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE GRADUALLY WARMING
AS WE HEAD ON INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST VERY
LONG AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. NEXT WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY ORGANIZING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOL AND CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEKEND
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.  42

&&

MARINE...
TODAY`S GULF WESTERLIES WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCEC LEVELS FURTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A WESTERN TEXAS
HIGH AND A MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE EVENING PASSAGE OF A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS WHILE VEERING WESTERLIES
MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RESPONDING GULF SEA HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE BY AN AVERAGE FOOT OR SO THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY WEEK
NORTH TO WEST BREEZES WILL TURN ONSHORE BY MID-WEEK AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CELL ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL VEER
WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  42  65  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  43  65  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  47  61  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 251123
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. JUST CIRRUS MAKING THIS TAF PACKAGE A WIND FORECAST. AN
APPROACHING CENTRAL TEXAS MORNING COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE
DOWNSTREAM WEST-TO-EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE ITS AFTERNOON
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION VEERS MODERATE WESTERLIES MORE NORTHERLY.
OF NOTE...20-30 KNOT JUST OFF-THE-SURFACE WINDS...IN TANDEM WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAY HAVE LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING TODAY IN/AROUND THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER
(AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A BIG TIME NORTHEASTERN U.S. SNOW STORM) WILL
DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. IT COULD GET A LITTLE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE GRADUALLY WARMING
AS WE HEAD ON INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST VERY
LONG AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. NEXT WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY ORGANIZING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOL AND CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEKEND
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.  42

&&

MARINE...
TODAY`S GULF WESTERLIES WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCEC LEVELS FURTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A WESTERN TEXAS
HIGH AND A MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE EVENING PASSAGE OF A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS WHILE VEERING WESTERLIES
MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RESPONDING GULF SEA HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE BY AN AVERAGE FOOT OR SO THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY WEEK
NORTH TO WEST BREEZES WILL TURN ONSHORE BY MID-WEEK AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CELL ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL VEER
WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  42  65  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  43  65  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  47  61  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 250922
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING TODAY IN/AROUND THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER
(AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A BIG TIME NORTHEASTERN U.S. SNOW STORM) WILL
DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. IT COULD GET A LITTLE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE GRADUALLY WARMING
AS WE HEAD ON INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT LAST VERY
LONG AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. NEXT WEEKEND...OUR EYES WILL TURN TOWARD THE SLOWLY ORGANIZING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOL AND CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEKEND
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.  42
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY`S GULF WESTERLIES WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCEC LEVELS FURTHER
OFFSHORE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A WESTERN TEXAS
HIGH AND A MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE EVENING PASSAGE OF A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS WHILE VEERING WESTERLIES
MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RESPONDING GULF SEA HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE BY AN AVERAGE FOOT OR SO THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY WEEK
NORTH TO WEST BREEZES WILL TURN ONSHORE BY MID-WEEK AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CELL ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL VEER
WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  42  65  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  43  65  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  47  61  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 250536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GET
A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTN AND THEN RELAX AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS
BY AN 80 TO 100 KNOT JET LOCATED AROUND 300 MB. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS WHERE
THICKER CIRRUS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 40
INLAND TONIGHT AND IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT /STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL IOWA AT 9
PM/ WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS A SURFACE
TROUGH...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. THIS...
COUPLED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO AROUND
900-875 MB TAPPING INTO SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALOFT... PROMPTED
A TREND UPWARD IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE/. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE AT
THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 250536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GET
A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTN AND THEN RELAX AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS
BY AN 80 TO 100 KNOT JET LOCATED AROUND 300 MB. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS WHERE
THICKER CIRRUS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 40
INLAND TONIGHT AND IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT /STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL IOWA AT 9
PM/ WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS A SURFACE
TROUGH...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. THIS...
COUPLED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO AROUND
900-875 MB TAPPING INTO SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALOFT... PROMPTED
A TREND UPWARD IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE/. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE AT
THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 250314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS
BY AN 80 TO 100 KNOT JET LOCATED AROUND 300 MB. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS WHERE
THICKER CIRRUS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 40
INLAND TONIGHT AND IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT /STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL IOWA AT 9
PM/ WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS A SURFACE
TROUGH...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. THIS...
COUPLED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO AROUND
900-875 MB TAPPING INTO SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALOFT... PROMPTED
A TREND UPWARD IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE/. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE AT
THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A
GUST GROUP FOR SUNDAY AFTN AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO
THE SURFACE. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 250314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS
BY AN 80 TO 100 KNOT JET LOCATED AROUND 300 MB. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS WHERE
THICKER CIRRUS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 40
INLAND TONIGHT AND IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT /STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL IOWA AT 9
PM/ WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS A SURFACE
TROUGH...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. THIS...
COUPLED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO AROUND
900-875 MB TAPPING INTO SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALOFT... PROMPTED
A TREND UPWARD IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE/. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE AT
THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A
GUST GROUP FOR SUNDAY AFTN AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO
THE SURFACE. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 242331
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A
GUST GROUP FOR SUNDAY AFTN AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO
THE SURFACE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242331
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A
GUST GROUP FOR SUNDAY AFTN AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO
THE SURFACE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 242050
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242050
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41




000
FXUS64 KHGX 241738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE TAFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS OR SO. LIGHT
WEST WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. REINFOR-
CING COLD FRONT LATE SUN NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH (BY WAY OF
PCPN). OTHERWISE VFR (DESPITE THE INFLUX OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
MORNING MIN TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN
SOME FREEZING TEMPS. FROST WAS EVEN NOTED AT THE FORECAST OFFICE
THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR
MAINLY W SFC LOW OVER TX. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO WARM TODAY FROM
3-4C TO CLOSE TO 8C THIS EVENING. ON A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY SO MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK ON TRACK. WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS RATHER QUIET THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO DO NOT EXPECT
THERE TO BE MANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  40  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  39  67  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  47  63  49  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 241738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE TAFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS OR SO. LIGHT
WEST WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. REINFOR-
CING COLD FRONT LATE SUN NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH (BY WAY OF
PCPN). OTHERWISE VFR (DESPITE THE INFLUX OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
MORNING MIN TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN
SOME FREEZING TEMPS. FROST WAS EVEN NOTED AT THE FORECAST OFFICE
THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR
MAINLY W SFC LOW OVER TX. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO WARM TODAY FROM
3-4C TO CLOSE TO 8C THIS EVENING. ON A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY SO MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK ON TRACK. WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS RATHER QUIET THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO DO NOT EXPECT
THERE TO BE MANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  40  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  39  67  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  47  63  49  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241632
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING MIN TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN
SOME FREEZING TEMPS. FROST WAS EVEN NOTED AT THE FORECAST OFFICE
THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR
MAINLY W SFC LOW OVER TX. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO WARM TODAY FROM
3-4C TO CLOSE TO 8C THIS EVENING. ON A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY SO MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK ON TRACK. WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS RATHER QUIET THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO DO NOT EXPECT
THERE TO BE MANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR. CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM SOUTHWEST WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY
WIND. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WEST
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (IN GENERAL...LOWS IN THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AND IN THE
40S/50S NEXT WEEK WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/60S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND IN THE 60S/70S NEXT WEEK). THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
COME BACK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COOL/COLD RAINS WILL COME BACK INTO OUR
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND/OR ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 42

MARINE...
SHORT TERM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SCEC CONDITIONS OVER GULF AS WINDS
WEAKEN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET. A QUIET WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE OVER AVERAGE ONE TO TWO FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS. TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER WEST TO EAST GULF
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY...WILL SUBTLY STRENGTHEN WESTERLY VEERING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
NEAR SCEC CRITERIA. DRY...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER
SUB TWO FOOT SEAS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  40  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  39  67  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  47  63  49  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241632
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING MIN TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN
SOME FREEZING TEMPS. FROST WAS EVEN NOTED AT THE FORECAST OFFICE
THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR
MAINLY W SFC LOW OVER TX. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO WARM TODAY FROM
3-4C TO CLOSE TO 8C THIS EVENING. ON A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY SO MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK ON TRACK. WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS RATHER QUIET THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO DO NOT EXPECT
THERE TO BE MANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR. CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM SOUTHWEST WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY
WIND. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WEST
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (IN GENERAL...LOWS IN THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AND IN THE
40S/50S NEXT WEEK WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/60S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND IN THE 60S/70S NEXT WEEK). THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
COME BACK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COOL/COLD RAINS WILL COME BACK INTO OUR
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND/OR ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 42

MARINE...
SHORT TERM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SCEC CONDITIONS OVER GULF AS WINDS
WEAKEN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET. A QUIET WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE OVER AVERAGE ONE TO TWO FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS. TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER WEST TO EAST GULF
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY...WILL SUBTLY STRENGTHEN WESTERLY VEERING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
NEAR SCEC CRITERIA. DRY...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER
SUB TWO FOOT SEAS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  40  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  39  67  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  47  63  49  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 241051
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM SOUTHWEST WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY
WIND. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WEST
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (IN GENERAL...LOWS IN THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AND IN THE
40S/50S NEXT WEEK WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/60S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND IN THE 60S/70S NEXT WEEK). THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
COME BACK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COOL/COLD RAINS WILL COME BACK INTO OUR
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND/OR ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 42

MARINE...
SHORT TERM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SCEC CONDITIONS OVER GULF AS WINDS
WEAKEN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET. A QUIET WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE OVER AVERAGE ONE TO TWO FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS. TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER WEST TO EAST GULF
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY...WILL SUBTLY STRENGTHEN WESTERLY VEERING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
NEAR SCEC CRITERIA. DRY...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER
SUB TWO FOOT SEAS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  40  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  39  67  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  47  63  49  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241051
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM SOUTHWEST WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY
WIND. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WEST
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (IN GENERAL...LOWS IN THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AND IN THE
40S/50S NEXT WEEK WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/60S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND IN THE 60S/70S NEXT WEEK). THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
COME BACK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COOL/COLD RAINS WILL COME BACK INTO OUR
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND/OR ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 42

MARINE...
SHORT TERM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SCEC CONDITIONS OVER GULF AS WINDS
WEAKEN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET. A QUIET WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE OVER AVERAGE ONE TO TWO FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS. TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER WEST TO EAST GULF
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY...WILL SUBTLY STRENGTHEN WESTERLY VEERING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
NEAR SCEC CRITERIA. DRY...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER
SUB TWO FOOT SEAS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  40  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  39  67  43  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  47  63  49  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




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