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000
FXUS64 KHGX 240217
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
817 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND AT 8 PM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PALESTINE TO
LA GRANGE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 15 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
OVERALL SE TX TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WINDS WILL BE CHANGING DIRECTION TONIGHT. OVERALL SW WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT OVER N TX SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
AREA. FRONT SHOULD REACH KCLL/KUTS/KCXO AROUND 04-05Z
..KIAH/KHOU/KSGR AROUND 05-06Z AND THE COAST AROUND 06Z-07Z.
THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE FRONT
EXCEPT FOR KGLS/KLBX. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND
YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM WITH CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80 AS OF 3 PM AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON/S WINDS HAVE
BEEN COURTESY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EJECTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A
FORT SUMNER /NM/ TO FLOYDADA /TX/ TO STILLWATER /OK/ LINE AS OF 3
PM. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF SAID TROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE HAS NOT HAD A CHANCE TO RECOVER...EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
10-15 MPH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK IN THE 30S INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST WON/T BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES AND BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
TRY TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE
TROUGH/S PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
STILL BE SCANT SO THINK THAT ANY QPF GENERATED INLAND IS
OVERDONE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL TRANSPORT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC TO BRING SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA ON TUESDAY REMAINS DRY.

BY MID-WEEK...TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING IS
DEFINITELY ONE TO GIVE THANKS FOR... WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR 70. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST ON
THANKSGIVING AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL NOT
ONLY ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION BUT HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA APPROACHING 13 TO 15 DEGREES C.

QUASIZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
AND GFS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE SOLUTION FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SAGS A FRONT INTO NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT HUNG UP OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT FOR SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT REASONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT A
FLATTENED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH. STILL A
FEW DAYS FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEPING POPS
BELOW MENTION AT THE MOMENT...BUT A WAA SCENARIO /WHICH IS WHAT
THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING/ SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE CAUTION FLAGS UP FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS MIGHT COME DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
BUT BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAUTION TO LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THAT SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WEAKER NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. MARINERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAN EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  64  39  63  36 /   0   0   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              50  67  41  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  65  50  63  48 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 240217
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
817 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND AT 8 PM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PALESTINE TO
LA GRANGE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 15 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
OVERALL SE TX TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WINDS WILL BE CHANGING DIRECTION TONIGHT. OVERALL SW WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT OVER N TX SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
AREA. FRONT SHOULD REACH KCLL/KUTS/KCXO AROUND 04-05Z
..KIAH/KHOU/KSGR AROUND 05-06Z AND THE COAST AROUND 06Z-07Z.
THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE FRONT
EXCEPT FOR KGLS/KLBX. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND
YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM WITH CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80 AS OF 3 PM AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON/S WINDS HAVE
BEEN COURTESY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EJECTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A
FORT SUMNER /NM/ TO FLOYDADA /TX/ TO STILLWATER /OK/ LINE AS OF 3
PM. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF SAID TROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE HAS NOT HAD A CHANCE TO RECOVER...EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
10-15 MPH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK IN THE 30S INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST WON/T BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES AND BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
TRY TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE
TROUGH/S PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
STILL BE SCANT SO THINK THAT ANY QPF GENERATED INLAND IS
OVERDONE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL TRANSPORT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC TO BRING SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA ON TUESDAY REMAINS DRY.

BY MID-WEEK...TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING IS
DEFINITELY ONE TO GIVE THANKS FOR... WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR 70. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST ON
THANKSGIVING AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL NOT
ONLY ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION BUT HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA APPROACHING 13 TO 15 DEGREES C.

QUASIZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
AND GFS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE SOLUTION FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SAGS A FRONT INTO NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT HUNG UP OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT FOR SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT REASONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT A
FLATTENED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH. STILL A
FEW DAYS FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEPING POPS
BELOW MENTION AT THE MOMENT...BUT A WAA SCENARIO /WHICH IS WHAT
THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING/ SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE CAUTION FLAGS UP FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS MIGHT COME DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
BUT BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAUTION TO LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THAT SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WEAKER NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. MARINERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAN EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  64  39  63  36 /   0   0   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              50  67  41  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  65  50  63  48 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 232322
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
522 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL SE TX TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WINDS WILL BE CHANGING DIRECTION TONIGHT. OVERALL SW WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT OVER N TX SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
AREA. FRONT SHOULD REACH KCLL/KUTS/KCXO AROUND 04-05Z
...KIAH/KHOU/KSGR AROUND 05-06Z AND THE COAST AROUND 06Z-07Z.
THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE FRONT
EXCEPT FOR KGLS/KLBX. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND
YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM WITH CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80 AS OF 3 PM AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON/S WINDS HAVE
BEEN COURTESY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EJECTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A
FORT SUMNER /NM/ TO FLOYDADA /TX/ TO STILLWATER /OK/ LINE AS OF 3
PM. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF SAID TROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE HAS NOT HAD A CHANCE TO RECOVER...EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
10-15 MPH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK IN THE 30S INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST WON/T BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES AND BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
TRY TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE
TROUGH/S PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
STILL BE SCANT SO THINK THAT ANY QPF GENERATED INLAND IS
OVERDONE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL TRANSPORT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC TO BRING SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA ON TUESDAY REMAINS DRY.

BY MID-WEEK...TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING IS
DEFINITELY ONE TO GIVE THANKS FOR... WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR 70. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST ON
THANKSGIVING AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL NOT
ONLY ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION BUT HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA APPROACHING 13 TO 15 DEGREES C.

QUASIZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
AND GFS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE SOLUTION FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SAGS A FRONT INTO NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT HUNG UP OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT FOR SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT REASONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT A
FLATTENED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH. STILL A
FEW DAYS FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEPING POPS
BELOW MENTION AT THE MOMENT...BUT A WAA SCENARIO /WHICH IS WHAT
THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING/ SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE CAUTION FLAGS UP FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS MIGHT COME DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
BUT BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAUTION TO LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THAT SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WEAKER NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. MARINERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAN EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  64  39  63  36 /   0   0   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              50  67  41  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  65  50  63  48 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 232117
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
317 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND
YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM WITH CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80 AS OF 3 PM AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON/S WINDS HAVE
BEEN COURTESY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EJECTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A
FORT SUMNER /NM/ TO FLOYDADA /TX/ TO STILLWATER /OK/ LINE AS OF 3
PM. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF SAID TROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE HAS NOT HAD A CHANCE TO RECOVER...EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
10-15 MPH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK IN THE 30S INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST WON/T BE
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES AND BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
TRY TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE
TROUGH/S PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
STILL BE SCANT SO THINK THAT ANY QPF GENERATED INLAND IS
OVERDONE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL TRANSPORT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC TO BRING SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA ON TUESDAY REMAINS DRY.

BY MID-WEEK...TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING IS
DEFINITELY ONE TO GIVE THANKS FOR... WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR 70. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST ON
THANKSGIVING AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL NOT
ONLY ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION BUT HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA APPROACHING 13 TO 15 DEGREES C.

QUASIZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
AND GFS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE SOLUTION FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SAGS A FRONT INTO NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT HUNG UP OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...BOTH MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT FOR SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT REASONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT A
FLATTENED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH. STILL A
FEW DAYS FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEPING POPS
BELOW MENTION AT THE MOMENT...BUT A WAA SCENARIO /WHICH IS WHAT
THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING/ SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE CAUTION FLAGS UP FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS MIGHT COME DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
BUT BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAUTION TO LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THAT SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WEAKER NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. MARINERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAN EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  64  39  63  36 /   0   0   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              50  67  41  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  65  50  63  48 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS ARE SKC. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON (SOMETIMES CLOSE
TO 20 KNOTS) THEN WILL DECREASE AROUND 00Z. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT (BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z NORTHERN
SITES (CLL/UTS/CXO) AND BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SOUTHERN SITES (IAH/HOU/SGR/
LBX/GLS). EXPECT GUSTY NW TO N WINDS UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN WINDS BECOME
MORE OUT OF THE N AND BECOME LESS GUSTY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY SOME LOW STRATUS REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
10 AM SHOWED THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS... IN COMBINATION
WITH CLEAR SKIES TODAY ALLOWING FOR MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT... WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE... THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY
DAY WITH THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 231729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS ARE SKC. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON (SOMETIMES CLOSE
TO 20 KNOTS) THEN WILL DECREASE AROUND 00Z. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT (BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z NORTHERN
SITES (CLL/UTS/CXO) AND BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SOUTHERN SITES (IAH/HOU/SGR/
LBX/GLS). EXPECT GUSTY NW TO N WINDS UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN WINDS BECOME
MORE OUT OF THE N AND BECOME LESS GUSTY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY SOME LOW STRATUS REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
10 AM SHOWED THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS... IN COMBINATION
WITH CLEAR SKIES TODAY ALLOWING FOR MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT... WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE... THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY
DAY WITH THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231628
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1028 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY SOME LOW STRATUS REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
10 AM SHOWED THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS... IN COMBINATION
WITH CLEAR SKIES TODAY ALLOWING FOR MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT... WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE... THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY
DAY WITH THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 231628
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1028 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY SOME LOW STRATUS REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
10 AM SHOWED THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS... IN COMBINATION
WITH CLEAR SKIES TODAY ALLOWING FOR MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT... WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE... THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY
DAY WITH THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230952
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 230952
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230952
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230952
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 230540
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN LINE OF STORMS STRETCHES FROM KGLS OUT INTO THE GULF AND
SHOULD BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A SECOND
WEAKER LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED WEST OF KUTS/KCXO AND THEN
MOVING TOWARDS KUTS/KCXO/KIAH. WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA IN TAFS
THROUGH 08Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS. OVERALL STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA 08Z-12Z WITH CIGS IMPROVING. MODELS SHOW
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z BUT DO NOT SEE THIS HAPPENING WITH
SKIES SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS REMAINING. WINDS TURN SW/W DURING
THE DAY WITH SOME GOOD GUSTS. COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH AREA BETWEEN
03Z/06Z MONDAY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER...MAINLY TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE MENTION
AND TO TWEAK THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE RAIN CHANCES.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AT 845 PM...WITH VERY GOOD DIFFLUENCE NOTED AT 300 MB
OVERHEAD OF SE TX. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST WEST OF KCLL AND
CROCKETT...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIKE THE 01Z HRRR AND THE 00Z
NAM12 WHICH PUSHES THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. THIS TIMING WILL BE TIED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE TWO DOMINATE LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH WERE FORMING AT 9 PM. ONE WAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND THE OTHER FROM NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND
PEARLAND SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID TX COAST.

AGREE WITH SPC WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR COLLEGE STATION
TO DAYTON IN SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY. THIS MEANS THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WASHINGTON...GRIMES...AND INTO
WALKER COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO PAST
MIDNIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF KAUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230540
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN LINE OF STORMS STRETCHES FROM KGLS OUT INTO THE GULF AND
SHOULD BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A SECOND
WEAKER LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED WEST OF KUTS/KCXO AND THEN
MOVING TOWARDS KUTS/KCXO/KIAH. WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA IN TAFS
THROUGH 08Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS. OVERALL STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA 08Z-12Z WITH CIGS IMPROVING. MODELS SHOW
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z BUT DO NOT SEE THIS HAPPENING WITH
SKIES SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS REMAINING. WINDS TURN SW/W DURING
THE DAY WITH SOME GOOD GUSTS. COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH AREA BETWEEN
03Z/06Z MONDAY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER...MAINLY TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE MENTION
AND TO TWEAK THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE RAIN CHANCES.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AT 845 PM...WITH VERY GOOD DIFFLUENCE NOTED AT 300 MB
OVERHEAD OF SE TX. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST WEST OF KCLL AND
CROCKETT...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIKE THE 01Z HRRR AND THE 00Z
NAM12 WHICH PUSHES THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. THIS TIMING WILL BE TIED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE TWO DOMINATE LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH WERE FORMING AT 9 PM. ONE WAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND THE OTHER FROM NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND
PEARLAND SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID TX COAST.

AGREE WITH SPC WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR COLLEGE STATION
TO DAYTON IN SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY. THIS MEANS THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WASHINGTON...GRIMES...AND INTO
WALKER COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO PAST
MIDNIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF KAUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 230519
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER...MAINLY TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE MENTION
AND TO TWEAK THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE RAIN CHANCES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AT 845 PM...WITH VERY GOOD DIFFLUENCE NOTED AT 300 MB
OVERHEAD OF SE TX. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST WEST OF KCLL AND
CROCKETT...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIKE THE 01Z HRRR AND THE 00Z
NAM12 WHICH PUSHES THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. THIS TIMING WILL BE TIED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE TWO DOMINATE LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH WERE FORMING AT 9 PM. ONE WAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND THE OTHER FROM NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND
PEARLAND SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID TX COAST.

AGREE WITH SPC WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR COLLEGE STATION
TO DAYTON IN SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY. THIS MEANS THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WASHINGTON...GRIMES...AND INTO
WALKER COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO PAST
MIDNIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF KAUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 230519
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER...MAINLY TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE MENTION
AND TO TWEAK THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE RAIN CHANCES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AT 845 PM...WITH VERY GOOD DIFFLUENCE NOTED AT 300 MB
OVERHEAD OF SE TX. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST WEST OF KCLL AND
CROCKETT...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIKE THE 01Z HRRR AND THE 00Z
NAM12 WHICH PUSHES THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. THIS TIMING WILL BE TIED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE TWO DOMINATE LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH WERE FORMING AT 9 PM. ONE WAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND THE OTHER FROM NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND
PEARLAND SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID TX COAST.

AGREE WITH SPC WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR COLLEGE STATION
TO DAYTON IN SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY. THIS MEANS THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WASHINGTON...GRIMES...AND INTO
WALKER COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO PAST
MIDNIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF KAUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230311
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
911 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AT 845 PM...WITH VERY GOOD DIFFLUENCE NOTED AT 300 MB
OVERHEAD OF SE TX. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST WEST OF KCLL AND
CROCKETT...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIKE THE 01Z HRRR AND THE 00Z
NAM12 WHICH PUSHES THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. THIS TIMING WILL BE TIED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE TWO DOMINATE LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH WERE FORMING AT 9 PM. ONE WAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND THE OTHER FROM NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND
PEARLAND SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID TX COAST.

AGREE WITH SPC WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR COLLEGE STATION
TO DAYTON IN SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY. THIS MEANS THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WASHINGTON...GRIMES...AND INTO
WALKER COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO PAST
MIDNIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF KAUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230311
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
911 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AT 845 PM...WITH VERY GOOD DIFFLUENCE NOTED AT 300 MB
OVERHEAD OF SE TX. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST WEST OF KCLL AND
CROCKETT...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIKE THE 01Z HRRR AND THE 00Z
NAM12 WHICH PUSHES THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. THIS TIMING WILL BE TIED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE TWO DOMINATE LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH WERE FORMING AT 9 PM. ONE WAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND THE OTHER FROM NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND
PEARLAND SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID TX COAST.

AGREE WITH SPC WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR COLLEGE STATION
TO DAYTON IN SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY. THIS MEANS THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WASHINGTON...GRIMES...AND INTO
WALKER COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO PAST
MIDNIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF KAUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 230003
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF AUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST UNFOLDING TODAY MAY LEAVE PEOPLE WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS ARE...AND WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
HAPPEN. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO PLAY THAT HAVE
HELPED LIMIT OR WEAKEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SO FAR TODAY. THE EDGE OF BETTER WAA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING STRADDLED A LINE FROM MATAGORDA BAY NORTH TOWARDS
WACO...LEAVING ANY ACTIVITY THAT ATTEMPTED TO STRAY FROM THIS
REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY LARGELY UNSUPPORTED. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER HAS ALSO DONE A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING INSTABILITY...A 16Z
SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M AND A 19Z SOUNDING FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
HOUSTON BOTH REVEALED A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE ALLOWED SOME
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THE BULK OF
THIS AFTERNOON/S ACTIVITY PRESENTLY RESIDES WEST OF INTERSTATE 45.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AS OF 3 PM SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH EAST AND
MAY MERGE AS A STRONG UPPER JET ALSO SHOVES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS/THE BIG BEND TO THE EAST.
PRESENT THINKING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS FOR ONE...POTENTIALLY TWO IF THE LINE IS
BROKEN...LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
THE COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATE THE TIMING FOR THESE STORMS TO
ENTER ALONG A CALDWELL/ COLUMBUS/ PALACIOS LINE SOMEWHERE AROUND
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT... AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO BY 3
AM. ANTICIPATE ALL RAIN TO EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 6-8 AM SUNDAY.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST /0-1 KM SHEAR
NEAR 30 KTS/ LATE TONIGHT AS A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS SHUNTED
EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... KEEPING THE
CONCERN FOR AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS
TONIGHT/S LINE PASSES. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS FOR TONIGHT/S
STORMS CENTERS AROUND HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
NAEFS ENSEMBLES POINTING TO PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES CLOSE TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY... DRY CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 60S. A
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO
THE AREA...KEEPING THANKSGIVING WEEK PLEASANT AND DRY.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

WILL CARRY CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS TO THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH MAINLY
STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FLAGS TO BE LOWERED OR EVEN DROPPED (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS). COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE AND BECOME MORE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS QUIET WITH LIGHT TO
POSSIBLE MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEAR-
SHORE AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230003
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF AUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST UNFOLDING TODAY MAY LEAVE PEOPLE WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS ARE...AND WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
HAPPEN. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO PLAY THAT HAVE
HELPED LIMIT OR WEAKEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SO FAR TODAY. THE EDGE OF BETTER WAA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING STRADDLED A LINE FROM MATAGORDA BAY NORTH TOWARDS
WACO...LEAVING ANY ACTIVITY THAT ATTEMPTED TO STRAY FROM THIS
REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY LARGELY UNSUPPORTED. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER HAS ALSO DONE A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING INSTABILITY...A 16Z
SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M AND A 19Z SOUNDING FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
HOUSTON BOTH REVEALED A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE ALLOWED SOME
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THE BULK OF
THIS AFTERNOON/S ACTIVITY PRESENTLY RESIDES WEST OF INTERSTATE 45.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AS OF 3 PM SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH EAST AND
MAY MERGE AS A STRONG UPPER JET ALSO SHOVES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS/THE BIG BEND TO THE EAST.
PRESENT THINKING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS FOR ONE...POTENTIALLY TWO IF THE LINE IS
BROKEN...LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
THE COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATE THE TIMING FOR THESE STORMS TO
ENTER ALONG A CALDWELL/ COLUMBUS/ PALACIOS LINE SOMEWHERE AROUND
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT... AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO BY 3
AM. ANTICIPATE ALL RAIN TO EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 6-8 AM SUNDAY.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST /0-1 KM SHEAR
NEAR 30 KTS/ LATE TONIGHT AS A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS SHUNTED
EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... KEEPING THE
CONCERN FOR AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS
TONIGHT/S LINE PASSES. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS FOR TONIGHT/S
STORMS CENTERS AROUND HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
NAEFS ENSEMBLES POINTING TO PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES CLOSE TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY... DRY CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 60S. A
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO
THE AREA...KEEPING THANKSGIVING WEEK PLEASANT AND DRY.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

WILL CARRY CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS TO THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH MAINLY
STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FLAGS TO BE LOWERED OR EVEN DROPPED (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS). COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE AND BECOME MORE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS QUIET WITH LIGHT TO
POSSIBLE MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEAR-
SHORE AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 222212
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
412 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST UNFOLDING TODAY MAY LEAVE PEOPLE WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS ARE...AND WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
HAPPEN. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO PLAY THAT HAVE
HELPED LIMIT OR WEAKEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SO FAR TODAY. THE EDGE OF BETTER WAA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING STRADDLED A LINE FROM MATAGORDA BAY NORTH TOWARDS
WACO...LEAVING ANY ACTIVITY THAT ATTEMPTED TO STRAY FROM THIS
REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY LARGELY UNSUPPORTED. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER HAS ALSO DONE A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING INSTABILITY...A 16Z
SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M AND A 19Z SOUNDING FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
HOUSTON BOTH REVEALED A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE ALLOWED SOME
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THE BULK OF
THIS AFTERNOON/S ACTIVITY PRESENTLY RESIDES WEST OF INTERSTATE 45.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AS OF 3 PM SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH EAST AND
MAY MERGE AS A STRONG UPPER JET ALSO SHOVES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS/THE BIG BEND TO THE EAST.
PRESENT THINKING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS FOR ONE...POTENTIALLY TWO IF THE LINE IS
BROKEN...LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
THE COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATE THE TIMING FOR THESE STORMS TO
ENTER ALONG A CALDWELL/ COLUMBUS/ PALACIOS LINE SOMEWHERE AROUND
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT... AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO BY 3
AM. ANTICIPATE ALL RAIN TO EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 6-8 AM SUNDAY.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST /0-1 KM SHEAR
NEAR 30 KTS/ LATE TONIGHT AS A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS SHUNTED
EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... KEEPING THE
CONCERN FOR AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS
TONIGHT/S LINE PASSES. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS FOR TONIGHT/S
STORMS CENTERS AROUND HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
NAEFS ENSEMBLES POINTING TO PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES CLOSE TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY... DRY CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 60S. A
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO
THE AREA...KEEPING THANKSGIVING WEEK PLEASANT AND DRY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CARRY CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS TO THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH MAINLY
STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FLAGS TO BE LOWERED OR EVEN DROPPED (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS). COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE AND BECOME MORE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS QUIET WITH LIGHT TO
POSSIBLE MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEAR-
SHORE AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 222212
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
412 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST UNFOLDING TODAY MAY LEAVE PEOPLE WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE THE STORMS ARE...AND WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
HAPPEN. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO PLAY THAT HAVE
HELPED LIMIT OR WEAKEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SO FAR TODAY. THE EDGE OF BETTER WAA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS MORNING STRADDLED A LINE FROM MATAGORDA BAY NORTH TOWARDS
WACO...LEAVING ANY ACTIVITY THAT ATTEMPTED TO STRAY FROM THIS
REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY LARGELY UNSUPPORTED. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER HAS ALSO DONE A GOOD JOB OF LIMITING INSTABILITY...A 16Z
SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M AND A 19Z SOUNDING FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
HOUSTON BOTH REVEALED A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE ALLOWED SOME
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THE BULK OF
THIS AFTERNOON/S ACTIVITY PRESENTLY RESIDES WEST OF INTERSTATE 45.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AS OF 3 PM SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH EAST AND
MAY MERGE AS A STRONG UPPER JET ALSO SHOVES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS/THE BIG BEND TO THE EAST.
PRESENT THINKING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS FOR THIS EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS FOR ONE...POTENTIALLY TWO IF THE LINE IS
BROKEN...LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
THE COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATE THE TIMING FOR THESE STORMS TO
ENTER ALONG A CALDWELL/ COLUMBUS/ PALACIOS LINE SOMEWHERE AROUND
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT... AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO BY 3
AM. ANTICIPATE ALL RAIN TO EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 6-8 AM SUNDAY.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST /0-1 KM SHEAR
NEAR 30 KTS/ LATE TONIGHT AS A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS SHUNTED
EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... KEEPING THE
CONCERN FOR AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS
TONIGHT/S LINE PASSES. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS FOR TONIGHT/S
STORMS CENTERS AROUND HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
NAEFS ENSEMBLES POINTING TO PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES CLOSE TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY... DRY CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 60S. A
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO
THE AREA...KEEPING THANKSGIVING WEEK PLEASANT AND DRY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CARRY CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS TO THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH MAINLY
STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE FLAGS TO BE LOWERED OR EVEN DROPPED (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS). COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE AND BECOME MORE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS QUIET WITH LIGHT TO
POSSIBLE MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEAR-
SHORE AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. BEST SHRS/TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS STARTING UP
NORTH (IN/AROUND A CLL TO UTS AREA) AND ALSO MAYBE NEAR THE
COAST (LBX AND GLS). EXPECT MULTIPLE TAF AMENDMENTS AS THE
SHRA/TSRA COMPLEX EVOLVES ON INTO THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH +SHRA/+TSRA AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND ANTICIPATE SKC
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH SSW/SW WINDS 9-13 KNOTS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE/VE
BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PAST FEW DAYS DIGGING INTO THE BIG BEND
AS OF 11 AM...WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING /COURTESY CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA/ HAVE REMAINED PRIMARILY OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON... BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ROLE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY IN
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WITH 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM /PWATS APPROACHING
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SO
MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 221738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. BEST SHRS/TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS STARTING UP
NORTH (IN/AROUND A CLL TO UTS AREA) AND ALSO MAYBE NEAR THE
COAST (LBX AND GLS). EXPECT MULTIPLE TAF AMENDMENTS AS THE
SHRA/TSRA COMPLEX EVOLVES ON INTO THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH +SHRA/+TSRA AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND ANTICIPATE SKC
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH SSW/SW WINDS 9-13 KNOTS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE/VE
BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PAST FEW DAYS DIGGING INTO THE BIG BEND
AS OF 11 AM...WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING /COURTESY CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA/ HAVE REMAINED PRIMARILY OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON... BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ROLE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY IN
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WITH 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM /PWATS APPROACHING
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SO
MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221707
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1107 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE/VE
BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PAST FEW DAYS DIGGING INTO THE BIG BEND
AS OF 11 AM...WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING /COURTESY CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA/ HAVE REMAINED PRIMARILY OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON... BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ROLE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY IN
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WITH 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM /PWATS APPROACHING
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SO
MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221707
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1107 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE/VE
BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PAST FEW DAYS DIGGING INTO THE BIG BEND
AS OF 11 AM...WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING /COURTESY CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA/ HAVE REMAINED PRIMARILY OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON... BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ROLE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY IN
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WITH 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM /PWATS APPROACHING
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SO
MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 221011
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BASE OF UPPER UPPER TROF SITUATED IN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM
BORDER WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA BY THIS EVENING
THEN INTO LA SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK IMPULSE
BEING KICKED OUT IN ADVANCE...ALONG W/ APPROACH OF LFQ OF JET...
LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WSW LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PUSH NEWD INTO MUCH OF OUR CWA
INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW
STRONG EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BECOME. DRIER AIR BACKDOORED INTO
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS KNOCKED BACK
DOWN INTO THE 50S...SO ALTHOUGH IT`LL LIKELY RECOVER AS MARITIME
AIR MOVES BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON - WE`LL BE STARTING OFF BEHIND
THE CURVE. FCST CAPES ARE ALSO MARGINAL BUT NOT NIL EITHER.

THAT BEING SAID SAT IMAGERY LOOKS LIKE SE PARTS OF THE REGION
MIGHT START THE DAY WITH PEAKS OF SUN. BY MID/LATE AFTN AND
EVENING WHEN BETTER FORCING MOVES IN - LLVL JET WILL BEGIN
INCREASING, SHEAR VALUES & HELICITIES BECOME RESPECTABLE, & UPPER
DIFFLUENCE & JET POSITION WILL BE THERE. SO...WE`LL JUST HAVE TO
MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND REALIZE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS CONDITIONAL. ALL THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE THERE IF
SO. WINDS...HAIL & POSSIBLY TORNADOES IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME
SFC BASED. (MORE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA; MORE SPECIFICALLY SW). THOUGH PRECIP WILL
BE MOVING AT A GOOD PACE UPPER PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR MINOR
STREET FLOOD TYPE ISSUES. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND 2 AM
AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED.

W/SW FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP ON SUNDAY. DRY COLD FRONT STILL PENCILED IN
TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 47

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR (AT LEAST) THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU
TOMORROW AS STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS/NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG THIS MORNING BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS STILL FCST TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WNW THIS EVE/TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BY EARLY SUN MORN...BUT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT PROG-
GED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FCST TO PREVAIL EARLY TUE
AFTN...THEN DECREASING FURTHER AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION..
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORN WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN NOTED WELL OFF TO OUR SW. THE MENTIONS OF VCSH START-
ING AT 12Z LOOK GOOD AT PRESENT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HINTING THAT BEST
PCPN CHANCES MAY BE A BIT LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AS A SQUALL LINE
SETS UP OUT WEST AND MOVES ACROSS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID-
NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221011
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BASE OF UPPER UPPER TROF SITUATED IN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM
BORDER WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA BY THIS EVENING
THEN INTO LA SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK IMPULSE
BEING KICKED OUT IN ADVANCE...ALONG W/ APPROACH OF LFQ OF JET...
LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WSW LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PUSH NEWD INTO MUCH OF OUR CWA
INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW
STRONG EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BECOME. DRIER AIR BACKDOORED INTO
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS KNOCKED BACK
DOWN INTO THE 50S...SO ALTHOUGH IT`LL LIKELY RECOVER AS MARITIME
AIR MOVES BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON - WE`LL BE STARTING OFF BEHIND
THE CURVE. FCST CAPES ARE ALSO MARGINAL BUT NOT NIL EITHER.

THAT BEING SAID SAT IMAGERY LOOKS LIKE SE PARTS OF THE REGION
MIGHT START THE DAY WITH PEAKS OF SUN. BY MID/LATE AFTN AND
EVENING WHEN BETTER FORCING MOVES IN - LLVL JET WILL BEGIN
INCREASING, SHEAR VALUES & HELICITIES BECOME RESPECTABLE, & UPPER
DIFFLUENCE & JET POSITION WILL BE THERE. SO...WE`LL JUST HAVE TO
MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND REALIZE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS CONDITIONAL. ALL THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE THERE IF
SO. WINDS...HAIL & POSSIBLY TORNADOES IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME
SFC BASED. (MORE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA; MORE SPECIFICALLY SW). THOUGH PRECIP WILL
BE MOVING AT A GOOD PACE UPPER PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR MINOR
STREET FLOOD TYPE ISSUES. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND 2 AM
AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED.

W/SW FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP ON SUNDAY. DRY COLD FRONT STILL PENCILED IN
TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 47

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR (AT LEAST) THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU
TOMORROW AS STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS/NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG THIS MORNING BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS STILL FCST TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WNW THIS EVE/TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BY EARLY SUN MORN...BUT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT PROG-
GED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FCST TO PREVAIL EARLY TUE
AFTN...THEN DECREASING FURTHER AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION..
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORN WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN NOTED WELL OFF TO OUR SW. THE MENTIONS OF VCSH START-
ING AT 12Z LOOK GOOD AT PRESENT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HINTING THAT BEST
PCPN CHANCES MAY BE A BIT LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AS A SQUALL LINE
SETS UP OUT WEST AND MOVES ACROSS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID-
NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 221011
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BASE OF UPPER UPPER TROF SITUATED IN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM
BORDER WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA BY THIS EVENING
THEN INTO LA SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK IMPULSE
BEING KICKED OUT IN ADVANCE...ALONG W/ APPROACH OF LFQ OF JET...
LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WSW LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PUSH NEWD INTO MUCH OF OUR CWA
INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW
STRONG EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BECOME. DRIER AIR BACKDOORED INTO
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS KNOCKED BACK
DOWN INTO THE 50S...SO ALTHOUGH IT`LL LIKELY RECOVER AS MARITIME
AIR MOVES BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON - WE`LL BE STARTING OFF BEHIND
THE CURVE. FCST CAPES ARE ALSO MARGINAL BUT NOT NIL EITHER.

THAT BEING SAID SAT IMAGERY LOOKS LIKE SE PARTS OF THE REGION
MIGHT START THE DAY WITH PEAKS OF SUN. BY MID/LATE AFTN AND
EVENING WHEN BETTER FORCING MOVES IN - LLVL JET WILL BEGIN
INCREASING, SHEAR VALUES & HELICITIES BECOME RESPECTABLE, & UPPER
DIFFLUENCE & JET POSITION WILL BE THERE. SO...WE`LL JUST HAVE TO
MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND REALIZE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS CONDITIONAL. ALL THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE THERE IF
SO. WINDS...HAIL & POSSIBLY TORNADOES IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME
SFC BASED. (MORE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA; MORE SPECIFICALLY SW). THOUGH PRECIP WILL
BE MOVING AT A GOOD PACE UPPER PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR MINOR
STREET FLOOD TYPE ISSUES. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND 2 AM
AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED.

W/SW FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP ON SUNDAY. DRY COLD FRONT STILL PENCILED IN
TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 47

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR (AT LEAST) THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU
TOMORROW AS STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS/NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG THIS MORNING BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS STILL FCST TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WNW THIS EVE/TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BY EARLY SUN MORN...BUT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT PROG-
GED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FCST TO PREVAIL EARLY TUE
AFTN...THEN DECREASING FURTHER AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION..
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORN WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN NOTED WELL OFF TO OUR SW. THE MENTIONS OF VCSH START-
ING AT 12Z LOOK GOOD AT PRESENT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HINTING THAT BEST
PCPN CHANCES MAY BE A BIT LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AS A SQUALL LINE
SETS UP OUT WEST AND MOVES ACROSS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID-
NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221011
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BASE OF UPPER UPPER TROF SITUATED IN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM
BORDER WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA BY THIS EVENING
THEN INTO LA SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK IMPULSE
BEING KICKED OUT IN ADVANCE...ALONG W/ APPROACH OF LFQ OF JET...
LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WSW LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PUSH NEWD INTO MUCH OF OUR CWA
INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW
STRONG EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BECOME. DRIER AIR BACKDOORED INTO
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS KNOCKED BACK
DOWN INTO THE 50S...SO ALTHOUGH IT`LL LIKELY RECOVER AS MARITIME
AIR MOVES BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON - WE`LL BE STARTING OFF BEHIND
THE CURVE. FCST CAPES ARE ALSO MARGINAL BUT NOT NIL EITHER.

THAT BEING SAID SAT IMAGERY LOOKS LIKE SE PARTS OF THE REGION
MIGHT START THE DAY WITH PEAKS OF SUN. BY MID/LATE AFTN AND
EVENING WHEN BETTER FORCING MOVES IN - LLVL JET WILL BEGIN
INCREASING, SHEAR VALUES & HELICITIES BECOME RESPECTABLE, & UPPER
DIFFLUENCE & JET POSITION WILL BE THERE. SO...WE`LL JUST HAVE TO
MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND REALIZE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS CONDITIONAL. ALL THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE THERE IF
SO. WINDS...HAIL & POSSIBLY TORNADOES IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME
SFC BASED. (MORE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA; MORE SPECIFICALLY SW). THOUGH PRECIP WILL
BE MOVING AT A GOOD PACE UPPER PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR MINOR
STREET FLOOD TYPE ISSUES. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND 2 AM
AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED.

W/SW FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP ON SUNDAY. DRY COLD FRONT STILL PENCILED IN
TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 47

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR (AT LEAST) THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU
TOMORROW AS STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS/NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG THIS MORNING BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS STILL FCST TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WNW THIS EVE/TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BY EARLY SUN MORN...BUT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT PROG-
GED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FCST TO PREVAIL EARLY TUE
AFTN...THEN DECREASING FURTHER AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION..
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORN WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN NOTED WELL OFF TO OUR SW. THE MENTIONS OF VCSH START-
ING AT 12Z LOOK GOOD AT PRESENT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HINTING THAT BEST
PCPN CHANCES MAY BE A BIT LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AS A SQUALL LINE
SETS UP OUT WEST AND MOVES ACROSS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID-
NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220535
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 6 HRS FOR SE TX TERMINALS WILL BE CIGS. CIG
RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR FOR AREA AIRPORTS. THINK ALL AREAS WILL HAVE
AT LEST MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. THE
00Z NAM/GFS STILL SUPPORT 2 TIME FRAMES FOR CONVECTION WHICH THE
TAFS CAPTURE. THERE WILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS FOR
TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. FIRST ROUND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. SECOND ROUND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR STORMS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 09Z SUN MORNING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE QUITE A BIT AFTER
PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. THE BEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WAS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE HRRR BOTH
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 18Z
TEXAS TECH WRF. THE NAM12 AND HRRR PUSH AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
A SQUALL LINE THEN DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS TECH WRF IS ABOUT 3
HOURS OR SO QUICKER WITH THE TIMING. AFTER LOOKING OVER THE 00Z
NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS STILL IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT -- A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220535
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 6 HRS FOR SE TX TERMINALS WILL BE CIGS. CIG
RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR FOR AREA AIRPORTS. THINK ALL AREAS WILL HAVE
AT LEST MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. THE
00Z NAM/GFS STILL SUPPORT 2 TIME FRAMES FOR CONVECTION WHICH THE
TAFS CAPTURE. THERE WILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS FOR
TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. FIRST ROUND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. SECOND ROUND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR STORMS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 09Z SUN MORNING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE QUITE A BIT AFTER
PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. THE BEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WAS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE HRRR BOTH
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 18Z
TEXAS TECH WRF. THE NAM12 AND HRRR PUSH AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
A SQUALL LINE THEN DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS TECH WRF IS ABOUT 3
HOURS OR SO QUICKER WITH THE TIMING. AFTER LOOKING OVER THE 00Z
NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS STILL IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT -- A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220336
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
936 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. THE BEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WAS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE HRRR BOTH
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 18Z
TEXAS TECH WRF. THE NAM12 AND HRRR PUSH AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
A SQUALL LINE THEN DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS TECH WRF IS ABOUT 3
HOURS OR SO QUICKER WITH THE TIMING. AFTER LOOKING OVER THE 00Z
NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS STILL IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT -- A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220336
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
936 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. THE BEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WAS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE HRRR BOTH
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 18Z
TEXAS TECH WRF. THE NAM12 AND HRRR PUSH AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
A SQUALL LINE THEN DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS TECH WRF IS ABOUT 3
HOURS OR SO QUICKER WITH THE TIMING. AFTER LOOKING OVER THE 00Z
NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS STILL IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT -- A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220336
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
936 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. THE BEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WAS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE HRRR BOTH
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 18Z
TEXAS TECH WRF. THE NAM12 AND HRRR PUSH AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
A SQUALL LINE THEN DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS TECH WRF IS ABOUT 3
HOURS OR SO QUICKER WITH THE TIMING. AFTER LOOKING OVER THE 00Z
NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS STILL IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT -- A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220336
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
936 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. THE BEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WAS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE HRRR BOTH
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 18Z
TEXAS TECH WRF. THE NAM12 AND HRRR PUSH AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
A SQUALL LINE THEN DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS TECH WRF IS ABOUT 3
HOURS OR SO QUICKER WITH THE TIMING. AFTER LOOKING OVER THE 00Z
NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS STILL IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT -- A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 212354
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORHTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 212354
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORHTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 212144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORHTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 212144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORHTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 212144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORHTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 212144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FOR THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA...WILL DIP INTO NORHTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
BUT GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIMARILY
WITH ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE BY LATE EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. BY MIDNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF I-45 WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND
THE LINE. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
OR A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING AND
ASSOCIATED TRAVEL DAYS. 38

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A PERIOD ON
THE BAYS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY WHEN SCECS MAY BE NEEDED IN ADVANCE
OF THE BIG STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND GUSTY WINDS THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO SQUALLY CONDITIONS AS THE
SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH ENDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING IT TO THE NORTH AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211758
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1158 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014


.AVIATION...
MESSY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR
CONDITIONS GENERALLY HOU-11R NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY DIFFUSE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT) AND MVFR TO VFR SOUTH OF THE LINE.
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL FORM
BUT PROBABLY NOT THE LARGE CLUSTERS/SWATHS AS THEY DID THIS
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT CIGS LOWER AND WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SHOWERS SHOULD FORM OVER THE GULF AND MOVE NORTH TOWARD
MORNING AS LLJ INTENSIFIES TO THE SW AND W. (LIFR POSSIBLE AT
CLL/UTS) UPPER SPEED MAX AT 12Z MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
AND SHOULD ADD TO THE LIFT IN THE MORNING SO IN GENERAL WILL BE
CARRYING VCSH FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE MORNING. BIG IMPACTS TO
AVIATION TRAVERSING AND OPERATING IN THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND
06Z SUN AS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE 20-60NM
WATERS AND SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING AND SEAS ARE 6-7 FEET AT 42019 AT 17Z. FETCH LENGTHENS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT PERSISTS SO 8-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET NEARSHORE. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE SE TRAJECTORIES AND DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO MID-UPPER 60S TOWARD MORNING ABOVE THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO BRING
DEWPOINTS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME ONGOING WAA SHRA AS LLVL JET TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY & WE MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO - BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK INTO CNTL TX LATER IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS THAT WAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU SE TX ON SAT AND
SAT EVNG. SATELLITE PIX CURRENTLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER SOCAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NCNTL MEXICO AND INTO CNTL TX
ON SAT. AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX SAT EVNG & NIGHT MODELS SHOW IT
TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT THEN HEADS NE INTO LA/AR. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS TILT MIGHT OCCUR A BIT SOONER
AND A BIT FURTHER WEST. BUT...OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT WITH HIGH FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND
EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES ARE JUST MODEST...MAINLY
500-1200 J/KG...BUT FALL WITHIN CLIMO RANGE OF PAST WINTERTIME
SEVERE WX EPISODES HERE. ANOTHER POSITIVE IN RESPECT TO SVR WX
POTENTIAL IS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SOME SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SAT MORNING AND ACROSS OUR W/SW
PARTS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE FAIRLY CLOSE, OR
IN, SE TX BEFORE MOVING TOWARD A MATAGORDA-LIBERTY-TEXARKANA LINE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES
(MOSTLY IN DISCREET SCT CELLS OUT IN FRONT) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN TSTMS/SQUALL LINE ITSELF). HAIL WOULD BE
SECONDARY THREAT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL,
BUT W/ FAST STORM MOTION OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE USUAL METRO STREETS THAT CAN`T HANDLE THE FAST HEAVY RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRY SW/W FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
FRONT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND BOTH
PUSH THRU RAIN-FREE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN
40S & HIGHS 65-70. 47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  63  73  58  78 /  60  30  90  80   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  63  76  62  79 /  50  20  80  90   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  74  67  78 /  30  20  70  90   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211758
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1158 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014


.AVIATION...
MESSY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR
CONDITIONS GENERALLY HOU-11R NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY DIFFUSE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT) AND MVFR TO VFR SOUTH OF THE LINE.
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL FORM
BUT PROBABLY NOT THE LARGE CLUSTERS/SWATHS AS THEY DID THIS
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT CIGS LOWER AND WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SHOWERS SHOULD FORM OVER THE GULF AND MOVE NORTH TOWARD
MORNING AS LLJ INTENSIFIES TO THE SW AND W. (LIFR POSSIBLE AT
CLL/UTS) UPPER SPEED MAX AT 12Z MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
AND SHOULD ADD TO THE LIFT IN THE MORNING SO IN GENERAL WILL BE
CARRYING VCSH FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE MORNING. BIG IMPACTS TO
AVIATION TRAVERSING AND OPERATING IN THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND
06Z SUN AS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE 20-60NM
WATERS AND SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING AND SEAS ARE 6-7 FEET AT 42019 AT 17Z. FETCH LENGTHENS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT PERSISTS SO 8-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET NEARSHORE. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE SE TRAJECTORIES AND DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO MID-UPPER 60S TOWARD MORNING ABOVE THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO BRING
DEWPOINTS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME ONGOING WAA SHRA AS LLVL JET TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY & WE MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO - BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK INTO CNTL TX LATER IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS THAT WAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU SE TX ON SAT AND
SAT EVNG. SATELLITE PIX CURRENTLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER SOCAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NCNTL MEXICO AND INTO CNTL TX
ON SAT. AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX SAT EVNG & NIGHT MODELS SHOW IT
TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT THEN HEADS NE INTO LA/AR. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS TILT MIGHT OCCUR A BIT SOONER
AND A BIT FURTHER WEST. BUT...OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT WITH HIGH FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND
EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES ARE JUST MODEST...MAINLY
500-1200 J/KG...BUT FALL WITHIN CLIMO RANGE OF PAST WINTERTIME
SEVERE WX EPISODES HERE. ANOTHER POSITIVE IN RESPECT TO SVR WX
POTENTIAL IS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SOME SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SAT MORNING AND ACROSS OUR W/SW
PARTS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE FAIRLY CLOSE, OR
IN, SE TX BEFORE MOVING TOWARD A MATAGORDA-LIBERTY-TEXARKANA LINE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES
(MOSTLY IN DISCREET SCT CELLS OUT IN FRONT) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN TSTMS/SQUALL LINE ITSELF). HAIL WOULD BE
SECONDARY THREAT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL,
BUT W/ FAST STORM MOTION OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE USUAL METRO STREETS THAT CAN`T HANDLE THE FAST HEAVY RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRY SW/W FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
FRONT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND BOTH
PUSH THRU RAIN-FREE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN
40S & HIGHS 65-70. 47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  63  73  58  78 /  60  30  90  80   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  63  76  62  79 /  50  20  80  90   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  74  67  78 /  30  20  70  90   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211602
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO BRING
DEWPOINTS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME ONGOING WAA SHRA AS LLVL JET TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY & WE MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO - BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK INTO CNTL TX LATER IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS THAT WAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU SE TX ON SAT AND
SAT EVNG. SATELLITE PIX CURRENTLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER SOCAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NCNTL MEXICO AND INTO CNTL TX
ON SAT. AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX SAT EVNG & NIGHT MODELS SHOW IT
TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT THEN HEADS NE INTO LA/AR. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS TILT MIGHT OCCUR A BIT SOONER
AND A BIT FURTHER WEST. BUT...OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT WITH HIGH FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND
EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES ARE JUST MODEST...MAINLY
500-1200 J/KG...BUT FALL WITHIN CLIMO RANGE OF PAST WINTERTIME
SEVERE WX EPISODES HERE. ANOTHER POSITIVE IN RESPECT TO SVR WX
POTENTIAL IS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SOME SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SAT MORNING AND ACROSS OUR W/SW
PARTS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE FAIRLY CLOSE, OR
IN, SE TX BEFORE MOVING TOWARD A MATAGORDA-LIBERTY-TEXARKANA LINE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES
(MOSTLY IN DISCREET SCT CELLS OUT IN FRONT) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN TSTMS/SQUALL LINE ITSELF). HAIL WOULD BE
SECONDARY THREAT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL,
BUT W/ FAST STORM MOTION OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE USUAL METRO STREETS THAT CAN`T HANDLE THE FAST HEAVY RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRY SW/W FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
FRONT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND BOTH
PUSH THRU RAIN-FREE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN
40S & HIGHS 65-70. 47

MARINE...
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OUT WEST...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE WAT-
ERS AS WELL. SCA SHOULD BE EXPANDED/EXTENDED AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUN. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MON MORNING. 41

AVIATION...
SOMEWHAT MESSY TAF FCST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE
GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE/WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE VCSH WORDING THRU THE REST OF THIS MORN-
ING BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS BY THIS AFTN. MAY
HAVE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF REDUCED VISBY (SEA FOG) FOR GLS AT
(OR AFTER) 22/06Z. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  63  73  58  78 /  60  30  90  80   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  63  76  62  79 /  50  20  80  90   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  74  67  78 /  30  20  70  90   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211602
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO BRING
DEWPOINTS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME ONGOING WAA SHRA AS LLVL JET TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY & WE MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO - BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK INTO CNTL TX LATER IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS THAT WAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU SE TX ON SAT AND
SAT EVNG. SATELLITE PIX CURRENTLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER SOCAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NCNTL MEXICO AND INTO CNTL TX
ON SAT. AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX SAT EVNG & NIGHT MODELS SHOW IT
TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT THEN HEADS NE INTO LA/AR. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS TILT MIGHT OCCUR A BIT SOONER
AND A BIT FURTHER WEST. BUT...OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT WITH HIGH FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND
EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES ARE JUST MODEST...MAINLY
500-1200 J/KG...BUT FALL WITHIN CLIMO RANGE OF PAST WINTERTIME
SEVERE WX EPISODES HERE. ANOTHER POSITIVE IN RESPECT TO SVR WX
POTENTIAL IS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SOME SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SAT MORNING AND ACROSS OUR W/SW
PARTS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE FAIRLY CLOSE, OR
IN, SE TX BEFORE MOVING TOWARD A MATAGORDA-LIBERTY-TEXARKANA LINE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES
(MOSTLY IN DISCREET SCT CELLS OUT IN FRONT) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN TSTMS/SQUALL LINE ITSELF). HAIL WOULD BE
SECONDARY THREAT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL,
BUT W/ FAST STORM MOTION OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE USUAL METRO STREETS THAT CAN`T HANDLE THE FAST HEAVY RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRY SW/W FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
FRONT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND BOTH
PUSH THRU RAIN-FREE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN
40S & HIGHS 65-70. 47

MARINE...
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OUT WEST...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE WAT-
ERS AS WELL. SCA SHOULD BE EXPANDED/EXTENDED AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUN. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MON MORNING. 41

AVIATION...
SOMEWHAT MESSY TAF FCST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE
GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE/WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE VCSH WORDING THRU THE REST OF THIS MORN-
ING BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS BY THIS AFTN. MAY
HAVE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF REDUCED VISBY (SEA FOG) FOR GLS AT
(OR AFTER) 22/06Z. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  63  73  58  78 /  60  30  90  80   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  63  76  62  79 /  50  20  80  90   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  74  67  78 /  30  20  70  90   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211602
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO BRING
DEWPOINTS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME ONGOING WAA SHRA AS LLVL JET TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY & WE MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO - BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK INTO CNTL TX LATER IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS THAT WAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU SE TX ON SAT AND
SAT EVNG. SATELLITE PIX CURRENTLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER SOCAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NCNTL MEXICO AND INTO CNTL TX
ON SAT. AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX SAT EVNG & NIGHT MODELS SHOW IT
TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT THEN HEADS NE INTO LA/AR. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS TILT MIGHT OCCUR A BIT SOONER
AND A BIT FURTHER WEST. BUT...OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT WITH HIGH FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND
EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES ARE JUST MODEST...MAINLY
500-1200 J/KG...BUT FALL WITHIN CLIMO RANGE OF PAST WINTERTIME
SEVERE WX EPISODES HERE. ANOTHER POSITIVE IN RESPECT TO SVR WX
POTENTIAL IS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SOME SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SAT MORNING AND ACROSS OUR W/SW
PARTS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE FAIRLY CLOSE, OR
IN, SE TX BEFORE MOVING TOWARD A MATAGORDA-LIBERTY-TEXARKANA LINE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES
(MOSTLY IN DISCREET SCT CELLS OUT IN FRONT) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN TSTMS/SQUALL LINE ITSELF). HAIL WOULD BE
SECONDARY THREAT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL,
BUT W/ FAST STORM MOTION OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE USUAL METRO STREETS THAT CAN`T HANDLE THE FAST HEAVY RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRY SW/W FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
FRONT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND BOTH
PUSH THRU RAIN-FREE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN
40S & HIGHS 65-70. 47

MARINE...
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OUT WEST...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE WAT-
ERS AS WELL. SCA SHOULD BE EXPANDED/EXTENDED AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUN. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MON MORNING. 41

AVIATION...
SOMEWHAT MESSY TAF FCST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE
GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE/WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE VCSH WORDING THRU THE REST OF THIS MORN-
ING BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS BY THIS AFTN. MAY
HAVE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF REDUCED VISBY (SEA FOG) FOR GLS AT
(OR AFTER) 22/06Z. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  63  73  58  78 /  60  30  90  80   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  63  76  62  79 /  50  20  80  90   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  74  67  78 /  30  20  70  90   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211602
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO BRING
DEWPOINTS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME ONGOING WAA SHRA AS LLVL JET TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY & WE MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO - BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK INTO CNTL TX LATER IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS THAT WAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU SE TX ON SAT AND
SAT EVNG. SATELLITE PIX CURRENTLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER SOCAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NCNTL MEXICO AND INTO CNTL TX
ON SAT. AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX SAT EVNG & NIGHT MODELS SHOW IT
TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT THEN HEADS NE INTO LA/AR. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS TILT MIGHT OCCUR A BIT SOONER
AND A BIT FURTHER WEST. BUT...OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT WITH HIGH FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND
EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES ARE JUST MODEST...MAINLY
500-1200 J/KG...BUT FALL WITHIN CLIMO RANGE OF PAST WINTERTIME
SEVERE WX EPISODES HERE. ANOTHER POSITIVE IN RESPECT TO SVR WX
POTENTIAL IS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SOME SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SAT MORNING AND ACROSS OUR W/SW
PARTS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE FAIRLY CLOSE, OR
IN, SE TX BEFORE MOVING TOWARD A MATAGORDA-LIBERTY-TEXARKANA LINE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES
(MOSTLY IN DISCREET SCT CELLS OUT IN FRONT) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN TSTMS/SQUALL LINE ITSELF). HAIL WOULD BE
SECONDARY THREAT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL,
BUT W/ FAST STORM MOTION OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE USUAL METRO STREETS THAT CAN`T HANDLE THE FAST HEAVY RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRY SW/W FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
FRONT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND BOTH
PUSH THRU RAIN-FREE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN
40S & HIGHS 65-70. 47

MARINE...
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OUT WEST...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE WAT-
ERS AS WELL. SCA SHOULD BE EXPANDED/EXTENDED AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUN. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MON MORNING. 41

AVIATION...
SOMEWHAT MESSY TAF FCST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE
GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE/WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE VCSH WORDING THRU THE REST OF THIS MORN-
ING BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS BY THIS AFTN. MAY
HAVE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF REDUCED VISBY (SEA FOG) FOR GLS AT
(OR AFTER) 22/06Z. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  63  73  58  78 /  60  30  90  80   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  63  76  62  79 /  50  20  80  90   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  74  67  78 /  30  20  70  90   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211008
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME ONGOING WAA SHRA AS LLVL JET TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY & WE MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO - BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK INTO CNTL TX LATER IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS THAT WAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU SE TX ON SAT AND
SAT EVNG. SATELLITE PIX CURRENTLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER SOCAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NCNTL MEXICO AND INTO CNTL TX
ON SAT. AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX SAT EVNG & NIGHT MODELS SHOW IT
TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT THEN HEADS NE INTO LA/AR. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS TILT MIGHT OCCUR A BIT SOONER
AND A BIT FURTHER WEST. BUT...OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT WITH HIGH FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND
EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES ARE JUST MODEST...MAINLY
500-1200 J/KG...BUT FALL WITHIN CLIMO RANGE OF PAST WINTERTIME
SEVERE WX EPISODES HERE. ANOTHER POSITIVE IN RESPECT TO SVR WX
POTENTIAL IS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SOME SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SAT MORNING AND ACROSS OUR W/SW
PARTS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE FAIRLY CLOSE, OR
IN, SE TX BEFORE MOVING TOWARD A MATAGORDA-LIBERTY-TEXARKANA LINE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES
(MOSTLY IN DISCREET SCT CELLS OUT IN FRONT) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN TSTMS/SQUALL LINE ITSELF). HAIL WOULD BE
SECONDARY THREAT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL,
BUT W/ FAST STORM MOTION OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE USUAL METRO STREETS THAT CAN`T HANDLE THE FAST HEAVY RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRY SW/W FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
FRONT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND BOTH
PUSH THRU RAIN-FREE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN
40S & HIGHS 65-70. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OUT WEST...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE WAT-
ERS AS WELL. SCA SHOULD BE EXPANDED/EXTENDED AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUN. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MON MORNING. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
SOMEWHAT MESSY TAF FCST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE
GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE/WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE VCSH WORDING THRU THE REST OF THIS MORN-
ING BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS BY THIS AFTN. MAY
HAVE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF REDUCED VISBY (SEA FOG) FOR GLS AT
(OR AFTER) 22/06Z. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  63  73  58  78 /  60  30  90  80   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  63  76  62  79 /  50  20  80  90   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  74  67  78 /  30  20  70  90   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211008
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME ONGOING WAA SHRA AS LLVL JET TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY & WE MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO - BUT FOR THE MOST PART JUST GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BACK INTO CNTL TX LATER IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS THAT WAY.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THRU SE TX ON SAT AND
SAT EVNG. SATELLITE PIX CURRENTLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM OVER SOCAL AND
SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NCNTL MEXICO AND INTO CNTL TX
ON SAT. AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX SAT EVNG & NIGHT MODELS SHOW IT
TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT THEN HEADS NE INTO LA/AR. SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS TILT MIGHT OCCUR A BIT SOONER
AND A BIT FURTHER WEST. BUT...OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT WITH HIGH FAIRLY HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND
EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES ARE JUST MODEST...MAINLY
500-1200 J/KG...BUT FALL WITHIN CLIMO RANGE OF PAST WINTERTIME
SEVERE WX EPISODES HERE. ANOTHER POSITIVE IN RESPECT TO SVR WX
POTENTIAL IS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SOME SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SAT MORNING AND ACROSS OUR W/SW
PARTS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE FAIRLY CLOSE, OR
IN, SE TX BEFORE MOVING TOWARD A MATAGORDA-LIBERTY-TEXARKANA LINE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES
(MOSTLY IN DISCREET SCT CELLS OUT IN FRONT) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN TSTMS/SQUALL LINE ITSELF). HAIL WOULD BE
SECONDARY THREAT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL,
BUT W/ FAST STORM MOTION OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE USUAL METRO STREETS THAT CAN`T HANDLE THE FAST HEAVY RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRY SW/W FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM UP. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
FRONT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED AND BOTH
PUSH THRU RAIN-FREE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN
40S & HIGHS 65-70. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
BE KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OUT WEST...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE WAT-
ERS AS WELL. SCA SHOULD BE EXPANDED/EXTENDED AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN/NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUN. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MON MORNING. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
SOMEWHAT MESSY TAF FCST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE
GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE/WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE VCSH WORDING THRU THE REST OF THIS MORN-
ING BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS BY THIS AFTN. MAY
HAVE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF REDUCED VISBY (SEA FOG) FOR GLS AT
(OR AFTER) 22/06Z. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  63  73  58  78 /  60  30  90  80   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  63  76  62  79 /  50  20  80  90   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  74  67  78 /  30  20  70  90   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





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