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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260932
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLJ
THIS MORNING FORMING A LINE FROM NEAR GIDDINGS TO HEMPSTEAD BACK
INTO HOUSTON TO DEVERS. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN
SOUTHEAST HARRIS COUNTY MOVING EAST. HAD THOUGHT THE ATMOSPHERE
HAD BEEN WELL WORKED OVER BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE LLJ CONTINUES TO BRING BACK ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MORE STORMS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REISSUED/EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND EXPANDED IT UP TO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA
TO CONROE TO LIBERTY THROUGH NOON.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 10+ INCHES OF RAIN IN SUGARLAND AND WEST
HOUSTON ALONG BELTWAY 8 BETWEEN I-10 AND HIGHWAY 90. WIDESPREAD
ROAD FLOODING GOING ON IN HOUSTON AND HOUSTON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
DISCOURAGING ANY TRAVEL.

BAYOUS/CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THE METRO AREA HAVE ALL RESPONDED
WITH LARGE RISES AND MANY ARE OUT OF BANKS AND FLOODING. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF FLOOD WATERS IN HOMES.

45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY`S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...WALLER...
     WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
WARNINGS...42/33/14
AVIATION...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 260932
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLJ
THIS MORNING FORMING A LINE FROM NEAR GIDDINGS TO HEMPSTEAD BACK
INTO HOUSTON TO DEVERS. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN
SOUTHEAST HARRIS COUNTY MOVING EAST. HAD THOUGHT THE ATMOSPHERE
HAD BEEN WELL WORKED OVER BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE LLJ CONTINUES TO BRING BACK ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MORE STORMS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REISSUED/EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND EXPANDED IT UP TO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA
TO CONROE TO LIBERTY THROUGH NOON.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 10+ INCHES OF RAIN IN SUGARLAND AND WEST
HOUSTON ALONG BELTWAY 8 BETWEEN I-10 AND HIGHWAY 90. WIDESPREAD
ROAD FLOODING GOING ON IN HOUSTON AND HOUSTON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
DISCOURAGING ANY TRAVEL.

BAYOUS/CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THE METRO AREA HAVE ALL RESPONDED
WITH LARGE RISES AND MANY ARE OUT OF BANKS AND FLOODING. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF FLOOD WATERS IN HOMES.

45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY`S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...WALLER...
     WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
WARNINGS...42/33/14
AVIATION...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 260932
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLJ
THIS MORNING FORMING A LINE FROM NEAR GIDDINGS TO HEMPSTEAD BACK
INTO HOUSTON TO DEVERS. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN
SOUTHEAST HARRIS COUNTY MOVING EAST. HAD THOUGHT THE ATMOSPHERE
HAD BEEN WELL WORKED OVER BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE LLJ CONTINUES TO BRING BACK ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MORE STORMS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REISSUED/EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND EXPANDED IT UP TO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA
TO CONROE TO LIBERTY THROUGH NOON.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 10+ INCHES OF RAIN IN SUGARLAND AND WEST
HOUSTON ALONG BELTWAY 8 BETWEEN I-10 AND HIGHWAY 90. WIDESPREAD
ROAD FLOODING GOING ON IN HOUSTON AND HOUSTON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
DISCOURAGING ANY TRAVEL.

BAYOUS/CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THE METRO AREA HAVE ALL RESPONDED
WITH LARGE RISES AND MANY ARE OUT OF BANKS AND FLOODING. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF FLOOD WATERS IN HOMES.

45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY`S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...WALLER...
     WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
WARNINGS...42/33/14
AVIATION...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 260932
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLJ
THIS MORNING FORMING A LINE FROM NEAR GIDDINGS TO HEMPSTEAD BACK
INTO HOUSTON TO DEVERS. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN
SOUTHEAST HARRIS COUNTY MOVING EAST. HAD THOUGHT THE ATMOSPHERE
HAD BEEN WELL WORKED OVER BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE LLJ CONTINUES TO BRING BACK ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MORE STORMS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REISSUED/EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND EXPANDED IT UP TO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA
TO CONROE TO LIBERTY THROUGH NOON.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 10+ INCHES OF RAIN IN SUGARLAND AND WEST
HOUSTON ALONG BELTWAY 8 BETWEEN I-10 AND HIGHWAY 90. WIDESPREAD
ROAD FLOODING GOING ON IN HOUSTON AND HOUSTON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
DISCOURAGING ANY TRAVEL.

BAYOUS/CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THE METRO AREA HAVE ALL RESPONDED
WITH LARGE RISES AND MANY ARE OUT OF BANKS AND FLOODING. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF FLOOD WATERS IN HOMES.

45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY`S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...WALLER...
     WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
WARNINGS...42/33/14
AVIATION...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 260840
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY`S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42
&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 260840
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY`S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42
&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 260840
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY`S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42
&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 260605
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  73  87  72  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  73  88  74  87 /  40  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  86  78  85 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
     FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 260605
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  73  87  72  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  73  88  74  87 /  40  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  86  78  85 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
     FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 260605
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  73  87  72  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  73  88  74  87 /  40  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  86  78  85 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
     FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 260605
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  73  87  72  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  73  88  74  87 /  40  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  86  78  85 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
     FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 252359
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KCLL AND KUTS
FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE LINE HAS HAD A SLOW SE PROGRESSION...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE WILL ACCELERATE AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL IMPACT THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN
02-04Z AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-07Z. THE TIMING
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT TERMINALS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.

BEHIND THE LINE...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT HOUSTON METRO AREA
TERMINALS.   44

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
LINE OF STORMS HAS BACK BUILT AND ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX UNTIL 2AM. ARE WX HAZARDS
ARE IN PLAY - FLASH FLOODING...WIND DAMAGE...HAIL & TORNADOES.
LINE IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS NE TX WHICH IS CAUSE
FOR CONCERN THE SRN PART MOVING INTO SE TX COULD EVENTUALLY SLOW
AND CAUSE MORE HEADACHES LATE TONIGHT. BUT AS OF THIS MOMENT IT IS
STILL ADVANCING ESE. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
HAS GENERATED FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS ALONG W/ SOME SUPERCELLS.
TRAILING THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ARE BEING FED BY 30-35KT LLJ FROM THE GULF ALONG W/ EVIDENT
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE TRAINING NATURE...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AND FF WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE OBSERVED...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE LESS
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING STILL
EXISTS SHOULD LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OCCUR...THEREFORE THAT
REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WATCH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS W/ TORNADOS & WIND DAMAGE PRIMARY THREATS.

BEST DIVERGENCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND WOULD
ANTICIPATE GENERAL INTENSITY TO INCREASE. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
FORCING MOVES OFF INTO OK/ARKANSAS THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION OVER US WILL SLOW DOWN...LEAVING
A BOUNDARY FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND/OR BOUNDARY TO WORK
OFF OF TOMORROW. WE`RE GOING TO JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS -
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES MIGHT COME INTO PLAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL LINGERING BOUNDARY, ETC FOR
TUE...WE SHOULD SEE PW VALUES DIMINISH BACK INTO THE 1.5-1.7"
RANGE AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NW
GULF FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULDN`T COMPLETELY
SHUTOFF PRECIP CHANCES...BUT SHIFT THEM INTO MORE OF THE USUAL
DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG VARIETY. STILL ANTICIPATE RIDGE TO BE
SUPPRESSED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WRN TROF MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. 47

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT. FROM THERE THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIDE LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  87  73  87  72 / 100  20  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  88  73  88  74 /  90  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  77  86  78 /  70  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 252347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS HAS BACK BUILT AND ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX UNTIL 2AM. ARE WX HAZARDS
ARE IN PLAY - FLASH FLOODING...WIND DAMAGE...HAIL & TORNADOES.
LINE IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS NE TX WHICH IS CAUSE
FOR CONCERN THE SRN PART MOVING INTO SE TX COULD EVENTUALLY SLOW
AND CAUSE MORE HEADACHES LATE TONIGHT. BUT AS OF THIS MOMENT IT IS
STILL ADVANCING ESE. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  87  73  87  72 / 100  20  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  88  73  88  74 /  90  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  77  86  78 /  70  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 252347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS HAS BACK BUILT AND ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX UNTIL 2AM. ARE WX HAZARDS
ARE IN PLAY - FLASH FLOODING...WIND DAMAGE...HAIL & TORNADOES.
LINE IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS NE TX WHICH IS CAUSE
FOR CONCERN THE SRN PART MOVING INTO SE TX COULD EVENTUALLY SLOW
AND CAUSE MORE HEADACHES LATE TONIGHT. BUT AS OF THIS MOMENT IT IS
STILL ADVANCING ESE. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  87  73  87  72 / 100  20  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  88  73  88  74 /  90  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  77  86  78 /  70  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 252059
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED
FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS ALONG W/ SOME SUPERCELLS. TRAILING
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ARE BEING
FED BY 30-35KT LLJ FROM THE GULF ALONG W/ EVIDENT DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT.

THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE TRAINING NATURE...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AND FF WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE OBSERVED...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE LESS
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING STILL
EXISTS SHOULD LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OCCUR...THEREFORE THAT
REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WATCH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS W/ TORNADOS & WIND DAMAGE PRIMARY THREATS.

BEST DIVERGENCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND WOULD
ANTICIPATE GENERAL INTENSITY TO INCREASE. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
FORCING MOVES OFF INTO OK/ARKANSAS THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION OVER US WILL SLOW DOWN...LEAVING
A BOUNDARY FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND/OR BOUNDARY TO WORK
OFF OF TOMORROW. WE`RE GOING TO JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS -
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES MIGHT COME INTO PLAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL LINGERING BOUNDARY, ETC FOR
TUE...WE SHOULD SEE PW VALUES DIMINISH BACK INTO THE 1.5-1.7"
RANGE AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NW
GULF FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULDN`T COMPLETELY
SHUTOFF PRECIP CHANCES...BUT SHIFT THEM INTO MORE OF THE USUAL
DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG VARIETY. STILL ANTICIPATE RIDGE TO BE
SUPPRESSED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WRN TROF MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. 47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT. FROM THERE THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIDE LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  87  73  87  72 /  80  20  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  88  73  88  74 /  70  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  77  86  78 /  50  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 252059
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED
FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS ALONG W/ SOME SUPERCELLS. TRAILING
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ARE BEING
FED BY 30-35KT LLJ FROM THE GULF ALONG W/ EVIDENT DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT.

THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE TRAINING NATURE...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AND FF WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE OBSERVED...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE LESS
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING STILL
EXISTS SHOULD LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OCCUR...THEREFORE THAT
REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WATCH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS W/ TORNADOS & WIND DAMAGE PRIMARY THREATS.

BEST DIVERGENCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND WOULD
ANTICIPATE GENERAL INTENSITY TO INCREASE. AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
FORCING MOVES OFF INTO OK/ARKANSAS THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION OVER US WILL SLOW DOWN...LEAVING
A BOUNDARY FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND/OR BOUNDARY TO WORK
OFF OF TOMORROW. WE`RE GOING TO JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS -
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES MIGHT COME INTO PLAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL LINGERING BOUNDARY, ETC FOR
TUE...WE SHOULD SEE PW VALUES DIMINISH BACK INTO THE 1.5-1.7"
RANGE AND SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NW
GULF FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULDN`T COMPLETELY
SHUTOFF PRECIP CHANCES...BUT SHIFT THEM INTO MORE OF THE USUAL
DIURNAL SCT AFTN/EVNG VARIETY. STILL ANTICIPATE RIDGE TO BE
SUPPRESSED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WRN TROF MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. 47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE OVER THE INLAND AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT. FROM THERE THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIDE LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  87  73  87  72 /  80  20  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  88  73  88  74 /  70  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  77  86  78 /  50  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 251726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL
BRING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO THE KCLL
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE REMAINING SITES. LIKED
THE NAM12 BUT DID CONSIDER OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. TWEAKED
THE TIMING OF THE EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE BUT FELT THAT THE TIME
FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MAINLY BE FROM 19Z TO ABOUT 23Z
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AT THE SITES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STARTING OFF THE MORNING W/ RELATIVELY DRY IN IN PLACE...BUT BASED
ON UPPER AIR/SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS THAT SHOULD BE CHANGING THIS
AFTN. LLVL JET WILL BE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (1.8-2" PW`S) BACK INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET AND ANTICIPATE SOME SCT POPCORN ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

2 AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY & TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CRP MOVING NE. THIS IS HEADED
TO AN AREA WHERE READINGS SUN IS SHINING AND READINGS ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 80S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LI`S AROUND -7 TO -9
NORTH IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG W/ WITH CAPES 3-5K J/KG.
THINK WE`LL SEE A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN W/
HEATING, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY S/W & CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HEADED TOWARD N CNTL TX.
EXACTLY HOW THIS IMPACTS SE TX REMAINS TO BE SEEN & LIKELY
DEPENDS ON IF AND HOW STABILIZED ATMOS BECOMES W/ EARLY AFTN
CONVECTION. STILL A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PRIMARY S/W CAUSES N PARTS OF SE TX SOME ISSUES HEADED
INTO THE EVNG HOURS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. FF THREAT STILL POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY DEPENDENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS STUFF MOVES OUT OF
HERE. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES - BUT HOPING FOR THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL AS OF
LATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  72  89  73  86 /  70  50  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  72  89  74  87 /  70  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL
BRING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO THE KCLL
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE REMAINING SITES. LIKED
THE NAM12 BUT DID CONSIDER OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. TWEAKED
THE TIMING OF THE EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE BUT FELT THAT THE TIME
FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MAINLY BE FROM 19Z TO ABOUT 23Z
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AT THE SITES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STARTING OFF THE MORNING W/ RELATIVELY DRY IN IN PLACE...BUT BASED
ON UPPER AIR/SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS THAT SHOULD BE CHANGING THIS
AFTN. LLVL JET WILL BE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (1.8-2" PW`S) BACK INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET AND ANTICIPATE SOME SCT POPCORN ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

2 AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY & TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CRP MOVING NE. THIS IS HEADED
TO AN AREA WHERE READINGS SUN IS SHINING AND READINGS ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 80S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LI`S AROUND -7 TO -9
NORTH IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG W/ WITH CAPES 3-5K J/KG.
THINK WE`LL SEE A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN W/
HEATING, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY S/W & CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HEADED TOWARD N CNTL TX.
EXACTLY HOW THIS IMPACTS SE TX REMAINS TO BE SEEN & LIKELY
DEPENDS ON IF AND HOW STABILIZED ATMOS BECOMES W/ EARLY AFTN
CONVECTION. STILL A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PRIMARY S/W CAUSES N PARTS OF SE TX SOME ISSUES HEADED
INTO THE EVNG HOURS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. FF THREAT STILL POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY DEPENDENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS STUFF MOVES OUT OF
HERE. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES - BUT HOPING FOR THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL AS OF
LATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  72  89  73  86 /  70  50  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  72  89  74  87 /  70  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 251556
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OFF THE MORNING W/ RELATIVELY DRY IN IN PLACE...BUT BASED
ON UPPER AIR/SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS THAT SHOULD BE CHANGING THIS
AFTN. LLVL JET WILL BE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (1.8-2" PW`S) BACK INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET AND ANTICIPATE SOME SCT POPCORN ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

2 AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY & TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CRP MOVING NE. THIS IS HEADED
TO AN AREA WHERE READINGS SUN IS SHINING AND READINGS ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 80S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LI`S AROUND -7 TO -9
NORTH IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG W/ WITH CAPES 3-5K J/KG.
THINK WE`LL SEE A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN W/
HEATING, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY S/W & CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HEADED TOWARD N CNTL TX.
EXACTLY HOW THIS IMPACTS SE TX REMAINS TO BE SEEN & LIKELY
DEPENDS ON IF AND HOW STABILIZED ATMOS BECOMES W/ EARLY AFTN
CONVECTION. STILL A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PRIMARY S/W CAUSES N PARTS OF SE TX SOME ISSUES HEADED
INTO THE EVNG HOURS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. FF THREAT STILL POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY DEPENDENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS STUFF MOVES OUT OF
HERE. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES - BUT HOPING FOR THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL AS OF
LATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  72  89  73  86 /  70  50  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  72  89  74  87 /  70  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251556
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OFF THE MORNING W/ RELATIVELY DRY IN IN PLACE...BUT BASED
ON UPPER AIR/SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS THAT SHOULD BE CHANGING THIS
AFTN. LLVL JET WILL BE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (1.8-2" PW`S) BACK INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET AND ANTICIPATE SOME SCT POPCORN ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

2 AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY & TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CRP MOVING NE. THIS IS HEADED
TO AN AREA WHERE READINGS SUN IS SHINING AND READINGS ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 80S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LI`S AROUND -7 TO -9
NORTH IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG W/ WITH CAPES 3-5K J/KG.
THINK WE`LL SEE A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN W/
HEATING, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY S/W & CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HEADED TOWARD N CNTL TX.
EXACTLY HOW THIS IMPACTS SE TX REMAINS TO BE SEEN & LIKELY
DEPENDS ON IF AND HOW STABILIZED ATMOS BECOMES W/ EARLY AFTN
CONVECTION. STILL A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PRIMARY S/W CAUSES N PARTS OF SE TX SOME ISSUES HEADED
INTO THE EVNG HOURS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. FF THREAT STILL POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY DEPENDENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS STUFF MOVES OUT OF
HERE. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES - BUT HOPING FOR THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL AS OF
LATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  72  89  73  86 /  70  50  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  72  89  74  87 /  70  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 251556
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OFF THE MORNING W/ RELATIVELY DRY IN IN PLACE...BUT BASED
ON UPPER AIR/SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS THAT SHOULD BE CHANGING THIS
AFTN. LLVL JET WILL BE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (1.8-2" PW`S) BACK INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET AND ANTICIPATE SOME SCT POPCORN ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

2 AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY & TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CRP MOVING NE. THIS IS HEADED
TO AN AREA WHERE READINGS SUN IS SHINING AND READINGS ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 80S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LI`S AROUND -7 TO -9
NORTH IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG W/ WITH CAPES 3-5K J/KG.
THINK WE`LL SEE A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN W/
HEATING, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY S/W & CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HEADED TOWARD N CNTL TX.
EXACTLY HOW THIS IMPACTS SE TX REMAINS TO BE SEEN & LIKELY
DEPENDS ON IF AND HOW STABILIZED ATMOS BECOMES W/ EARLY AFTN
CONVECTION. STILL A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PRIMARY S/W CAUSES N PARTS OF SE TX SOME ISSUES HEADED
INTO THE EVNG HOURS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. FF THREAT STILL POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY DEPENDENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS STUFF MOVES OUT OF
HERE. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES - BUT HOPING FOR THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL AS OF
LATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  72  89  73  86 /  70  50  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  72  89  74  87 /  70  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015


.AVIATION...
VLIFR AT CXO/IFR AT CLL OTHERWISE THE AREA IS MAINLY VFR. CIGS
SHOULD RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000FT WITH
EARLY MORNING HEATING...THIS DECK MAY LINGER INTO AROUND MID DAY.
QUESTION STILL ABOUND ABOUT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THEY MAKE IT. SO MUCH VARIABILITY IN MODEL
OUTPUT THAT HAVE JUST TRIED TO TIME BEST LIFT  WILL CARRY VCSH
BETWEEN 15-18Z AND VCTS AFTER WITH TEMPO TSRA CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW ROUGHLY 18-22Z IN THE NORTHWEST TO
221-01Z AT THE COAST. AFTER STORMS DEPART THE AREA VFR CONDITIONS
PRESENT AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR CIGS REFORM
OVERNIGHT.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RAPID EXPANSION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WATER VAPOR
CLEARLY SHOWS A VERY VIGOROUS S/W MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE S/W. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
NEAR MIDLAND SHORTLY AND EXPECT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE S/W TO BE
NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. LLJ IS QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING AND MODELS HAVE REALLY
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/ARW ALL SHOWED
SPEEDS AT 850 OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WHILE VWP AT CRP SHOWED 50 KNOTS/HGX
40 KNOTS. THIS STRONGER RETURN FLOW MAY HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER YESTERDAYS STRONGER AND VERY PROGRESSIVE
MCS SCOURED OUT THE MOISTURE.

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PW OF 1.2-1.3 OVER THE AREA AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9" BY
LATE AFTERNOON (THIS MAY BE OVERDONE). FULLY EXPECT THIS S/W COMING
THROUGH TEXAS TO CREATE A LINE OF STORMS BUT THAT IT MAY TURN
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DALLAS-WACO AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TRICKY PART IS THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE
OR A SECOND AREA OF STORMS THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND TRACKS INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SETX WITH DAYTIME HEATING
BY AROUND NOON. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SETX LOOKS TO SUPPORT DECENT
INSTABILITY (LI -5 TO -8 AND CAPE OF 2400-4000...THIS MAY AGAIN BE
DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN) SHEAR AT LEAST EARLY
TODAY WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT STILL CAPPED. AS THE HEATING GETS FULLY
UNDERWAY LATE THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF STRONG LL WINDS SHIFTS
WESTWARD AND THE SHEAR LESSENS WITH LESS TURNING AND LESS SPEED
SHEAR. SPC HAS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN ENHANCED
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO WHAT TO DO WITH THE FORECAST... FOR THIS
MORNING THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK A GOOD DEAL LOWER SO HAVE DROPPED THEM
BACK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST WHERE 50 POPS SHOULD STAND AND ADDED
SHRA THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TSRA AFTER. THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE (HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO).  WITH ALL OF THE
WIND ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THINKING THAT THESE
STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND DEPART THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS GUIDANCE HASN`T ALWAYS BEEN ON THE MARK WITH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.  SPEAKING OF WHICH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
HELPING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT THE SOILS ARE STILL
SATURATED AND MAY SEE THE STORMS TRAINING FOR AN HOUR WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING. HEAVIER RAINS WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MORE IFFY THAN ACROSS
THE NORTH.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OFF BY EARLY IN THE MORNING
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE
WARMER...WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME I HAVE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TO HIT 90 THIS YEAR. THIS YEAR SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE RECORD. THE RECORD HIGHS SHOW THE SECOND HEAT WAVE OF
DROUGHT RIDDEN MAY IN 2011 HOLDING MANY RECORDS INCLUDING A WHOPPING
98 AT IAH...SO 5-8 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
A GOOD DEAL LOWER AS WELL AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS
A WEAK SEABREEZE.

45

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC ROUGHLY
NEAR 29 N 144 W... WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
RIDGING OVERHEAD MID TO LATE WEEK... TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONSIST OF
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/.
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN TEXAS
BY FRIDAY AND SWING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
HAPPENS.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD AND SHOULD SEE WINDS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS COME DOWN TOWARD MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY SEE SOME MORE BEACH FLOODING WITH
THE ELEVATED TIDES COMBINED WITH THE RUNUP. RIP CURRENTS SHOULD
STILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE THE RIP CURRENT
ADVISORY. A LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY AND A RETURN A MORE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  89  73  86 /  70  40  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  72  89  74  87 /  60  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015


.AVIATION...
VLIFR AT CXO/IFR AT CLL OTHERWISE THE AREA IS MAINLY VFR. CIGS
SHOULD RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000FT WITH
EARLY MORNING HEATING...THIS DECK MAY LINGER INTO AROUND MID DAY.
QUESTION STILL ABOUND ABOUT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THEY MAKE IT. SO MUCH VARIABILITY IN MODEL
OUTPUT THAT HAVE JUST TRIED TO TIME BEST LIFT  WILL CARRY VCSH
BETWEEN 15-18Z AND VCTS AFTER WITH TEMPO TSRA CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW ROUGHLY 18-22Z IN THE NORTHWEST TO
221-01Z AT THE COAST. AFTER STORMS DEPART THE AREA VFR CONDITIONS
PRESENT AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR CIGS REFORM
OVERNIGHT.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RAPID EXPANSION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WATER VAPOR
CLEARLY SHOWS A VERY VIGOROUS S/W MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE S/W. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
NEAR MIDLAND SHORTLY AND EXPECT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE S/W TO BE
NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. LLJ IS QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING AND MODELS HAVE REALLY
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/ARW ALL SHOWED
SPEEDS AT 850 OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WHILE VWP AT CRP SHOWED 50 KNOTS/HGX
40 KNOTS. THIS STRONGER RETURN FLOW MAY HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER YESTERDAYS STRONGER AND VERY PROGRESSIVE
MCS SCOURED OUT THE MOISTURE.

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PW OF 1.2-1.3 OVER THE AREA AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9" BY
LATE AFTERNOON (THIS MAY BE OVERDONE). FULLY EXPECT THIS S/W COMING
THROUGH TEXAS TO CREATE A LINE OF STORMS BUT THAT IT MAY TURN
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DALLAS-WACO AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TRICKY PART IS THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE
OR A SECOND AREA OF STORMS THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND TRACKS INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SETX WITH DAYTIME HEATING
BY AROUND NOON. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SETX LOOKS TO SUPPORT DECENT
INSTABILITY (LI -5 TO -8 AND CAPE OF 2400-4000...THIS MAY AGAIN BE
DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN) SHEAR AT LEAST EARLY
TODAY WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT STILL CAPPED. AS THE HEATING GETS FULLY
UNDERWAY LATE THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF STRONG LL WINDS SHIFTS
WESTWARD AND THE SHEAR LESSENS WITH LESS TURNING AND LESS SPEED
SHEAR. SPC HAS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN ENHANCED
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO WHAT TO DO WITH THE FORECAST... FOR THIS
MORNING THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK A GOOD DEAL LOWER SO HAVE DROPPED THEM
BACK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST WHERE 50 POPS SHOULD STAND AND ADDED
SHRA THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TSRA AFTER. THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE (HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO).  WITH ALL OF THE
WIND ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THINKING THAT THESE
STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND DEPART THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS GUIDANCE HASN`T ALWAYS BEEN ON THE MARK WITH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.  SPEAKING OF WHICH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
HELPING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT THE SOILS ARE STILL
SATURATED AND MAY SEE THE STORMS TRAINING FOR AN HOUR WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING. HEAVIER RAINS WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MORE IFFY THAN ACROSS
THE NORTH.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OFF BY EARLY IN THE MORNING
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE
WARMER...WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME I HAVE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TO HIT 90 THIS YEAR. THIS YEAR SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE RECORD. THE RECORD HIGHS SHOW THE SECOND HEAT WAVE OF
DROUGHT RIDDEN MAY IN 2011 HOLDING MANY RECORDS INCLUDING A WHOPPING
98 AT IAH...SO 5-8 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
A GOOD DEAL LOWER AS WELL AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS
A WEAK SEABREEZE.

45

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC ROUGHLY
NEAR 29 N 144 W... WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
RIDGING OVERHEAD MID TO LATE WEEK... TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONSIST OF
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/.
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN TEXAS
BY FRIDAY AND SWING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
HAPPENS.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD AND SHOULD SEE WINDS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS COME DOWN TOWARD MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY SEE SOME MORE BEACH FLOODING WITH
THE ELEVATED TIDES COMBINED WITH THE RUNUP. RIP CURRENTS SHOULD
STILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE THE RIP CURRENT
ADVISORY. A LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY AND A RETURN A MORE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  89  73  86 /  70  40  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  72  89  74  87 /  60  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 251156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015


.AVIATION...
VLIFR AT CXO/IFR AT CLL OTHERWISE THE AREA IS MAINLY VFR. CIGS
SHOULD RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000FT WITH
EARLY MORNING HEATING...THIS DECK MAY LINGER INTO AROUND MID DAY.
QUESTION STILL ABOUND ABOUT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THEY MAKE IT. SO MUCH VARIABILITY IN MODEL
OUTPUT THAT HAVE JUST TRIED TO TIME BEST LIFT  WILL CARRY VCSH
BETWEEN 15-18Z AND VCTS AFTER WITH TEMPO TSRA CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW ROUGHLY 18-22Z IN THE NORTHWEST TO
221-01Z AT THE COAST. AFTER STORMS DEPART THE AREA VFR CONDITIONS
PRESENT AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR CIGS REFORM
OVERNIGHT.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RAPID EXPANSION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WATER VAPOR
CLEARLY SHOWS A VERY VIGOROUS S/W MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE S/W. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
NEAR MIDLAND SHORTLY AND EXPECT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE S/W TO BE
NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. LLJ IS QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING AND MODELS HAVE REALLY
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/ARW ALL SHOWED
SPEEDS AT 850 OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WHILE VWP AT CRP SHOWED 50 KNOTS/HGX
40 KNOTS. THIS STRONGER RETURN FLOW MAY HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER YESTERDAYS STRONGER AND VERY PROGRESSIVE
MCS SCOURED OUT THE MOISTURE.

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PW OF 1.2-1.3 OVER THE AREA AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9" BY
LATE AFTERNOON (THIS MAY BE OVERDONE). FULLY EXPECT THIS S/W COMING
THROUGH TEXAS TO CREATE A LINE OF STORMS BUT THAT IT MAY TURN
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DALLAS-WACO AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TRICKY PART IS THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE
OR A SECOND AREA OF STORMS THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND TRACKS INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SETX WITH DAYTIME HEATING
BY AROUND NOON. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SETX LOOKS TO SUPPORT DECENT
INSTABILITY (LI -5 TO -8 AND CAPE OF 2400-4000...THIS MAY AGAIN BE
DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN) SHEAR AT LEAST EARLY
TODAY WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT STILL CAPPED. AS THE HEATING GETS FULLY
UNDERWAY LATE THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF STRONG LL WINDS SHIFTS
WESTWARD AND THE SHEAR LESSENS WITH LESS TURNING AND LESS SPEED
SHEAR. SPC HAS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN ENHANCED
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO WHAT TO DO WITH THE FORECAST... FOR THIS
MORNING THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK A GOOD DEAL LOWER SO HAVE DROPPED THEM
BACK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST WHERE 50 POPS SHOULD STAND AND ADDED
SHRA THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TSRA AFTER. THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE (HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO).  WITH ALL OF THE
WIND ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THINKING THAT THESE
STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND DEPART THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS GUIDANCE HASN`T ALWAYS BEEN ON THE MARK WITH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.  SPEAKING OF WHICH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
HELPING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT THE SOILS ARE STILL
SATURATED AND MAY SEE THE STORMS TRAINING FOR AN HOUR WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING. HEAVIER RAINS WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MORE IFFY THAN ACROSS
THE NORTH.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OFF BY EARLY IN THE MORNING
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE
WARMER...WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME I HAVE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TO HIT 90 THIS YEAR. THIS YEAR SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE RECORD. THE RECORD HIGHS SHOW THE SECOND HEAT WAVE OF
DROUGHT RIDDEN MAY IN 2011 HOLDING MANY RECORDS INCLUDING A WHOPPING
98 AT IAH...SO 5-8 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
A GOOD DEAL LOWER AS WELL AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS
A WEAK SEABREEZE.

45

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC ROUGHLY
NEAR 29 N 144 W... WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
RIDGING OVERHEAD MID TO LATE WEEK... TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONSIST OF
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/.
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN TEXAS
BY FRIDAY AND SWING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
HAPPENS.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD AND SHOULD SEE WINDS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS COME DOWN TOWARD MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY SEE SOME MORE BEACH FLOODING WITH
THE ELEVATED TIDES COMBINED WITH THE RUNUP. RIP CURRENTS SHOULD
STILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE THE RIP CURRENT
ADVISORY. A LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY AND A RETURN A MORE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  89  73  86 /  70  40  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  72  89  74  87 /  60  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015


.AVIATION...
VLIFR AT CXO/IFR AT CLL OTHERWISE THE AREA IS MAINLY VFR. CIGS
SHOULD RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000FT WITH
EARLY MORNING HEATING...THIS DECK MAY LINGER INTO AROUND MID DAY.
QUESTION STILL ABOUND ABOUT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THEY MAKE IT. SO MUCH VARIABILITY IN MODEL
OUTPUT THAT HAVE JUST TRIED TO TIME BEST LIFT  WILL CARRY VCSH
BETWEEN 15-18Z AND VCTS AFTER WITH TEMPO TSRA CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW ROUGHLY 18-22Z IN THE NORTHWEST TO
221-01Z AT THE COAST. AFTER STORMS DEPART THE AREA VFR CONDITIONS
PRESENT AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR CIGS REFORM
OVERNIGHT.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RAPID EXPANSION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WATER VAPOR
CLEARLY SHOWS A VERY VIGOROUS S/W MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE S/W. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
NEAR MIDLAND SHORTLY AND EXPECT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE S/W TO BE
NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. LLJ IS QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING AND MODELS HAVE REALLY
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/ARW ALL SHOWED
SPEEDS AT 850 OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WHILE VWP AT CRP SHOWED 50 KNOTS/HGX
40 KNOTS. THIS STRONGER RETURN FLOW MAY HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER YESTERDAYS STRONGER AND VERY PROGRESSIVE
MCS SCOURED OUT THE MOISTURE.

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PW OF 1.2-1.3 OVER THE AREA AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9" BY
LATE AFTERNOON (THIS MAY BE OVERDONE). FULLY EXPECT THIS S/W COMING
THROUGH TEXAS TO CREATE A LINE OF STORMS BUT THAT IT MAY TURN
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DALLAS-WACO AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TRICKY PART IS THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE
OR A SECOND AREA OF STORMS THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND TRACKS INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SETX WITH DAYTIME HEATING
BY AROUND NOON. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SETX LOOKS TO SUPPORT DECENT
INSTABILITY (LI -5 TO -8 AND CAPE OF 2400-4000...THIS MAY AGAIN BE
DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN) SHEAR AT LEAST EARLY
TODAY WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT STILL CAPPED. AS THE HEATING GETS FULLY
UNDERWAY LATE THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF STRONG LL WINDS SHIFTS
WESTWARD AND THE SHEAR LESSENS WITH LESS TURNING AND LESS SPEED
SHEAR. SPC HAS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN ENHANCED
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO WHAT TO DO WITH THE FORECAST... FOR THIS
MORNING THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK A GOOD DEAL LOWER SO HAVE DROPPED THEM
BACK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST WHERE 50 POPS SHOULD STAND AND ADDED
SHRA THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TSRA AFTER. THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE (HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO).  WITH ALL OF THE
WIND ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THINKING THAT THESE
STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND DEPART THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS GUIDANCE HASN`T ALWAYS BEEN ON THE MARK WITH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.  SPEAKING OF WHICH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
HELPING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT THE SOILS ARE STILL
SATURATED AND MAY SEE THE STORMS TRAINING FOR AN HOUR WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING. HEAVIER RAINS WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MORE IFFY THAN ACROSS
THE NORTH.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OFF BY EARLY IN THE MORNING
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE
WARMER...WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME I HAVE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TO HIT 90 THIS YEAR. THIS YEAR SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE RECORD. THE RECORD HIGHS SHOW THE SECOND HEAT WAVE OF
DROUGHT RIDDEN MAY IN 2011 HOLDING MANY RECORDS INCLUDING A WHOPPING
98 AT IAH...SO 5-8 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
A GOOD DEAL LOWER AS WELL AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS
A WEAK SEABREEZE.

45

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC ROUGHLY
NEAR 29 N 144 W... WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
RIDGING OVERHEAD MID TO LATE WEEK... TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONSIST OF
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/.
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN TEXAS
BY FRIDAY AND SWING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
HAPPENS.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD AND SHOULD SEE WINDS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS COME DOWN TOWARD MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY SEE SOME MORE BEACH FLOODING WITH
THE ELEVATED TIDES COMBINED WITH THE RUNUP. RIP CURRENTS SHOULD
STILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE THE RIP CURRENT
ADVISORY. A LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY AND A RETURN A MORE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  89  73  86 /  70  40  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  72  89  74  87 /  60  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 251003
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RAPID EXPANSION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WATER VAPOR
CLEARLY SHOWS A VERY VIGOROUS S/W MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE S/W. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
NEAR MIDLAND SHORTLY AND EXPECT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE S/W TO BE
NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. LLJ IS QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING AND MODELS HAVE REALLY
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/ARW ALL SHOWED
SPEEDS AT 850 OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WHILE VWP AT CRP SHOWED 50 KNOTS/HGX
40 KNOTS. THIS STRONGER RETURN FLOW MAY HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER YESTERDAYS STRONGER AND VERY PROGRESSIVE
MCS SCOURED OUT THE MOISTURE.

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PW OF 1.2-1.3 OVER THE AREA AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9" BY
LATE AFTERNOON (THIS MAY BE OVERDONE). FULLY EXPECT THIS S/W COMING
THROUGH TEXAS TO CREATE A LINE OF STORMS BUT THAT IT MAY TURN
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DALLAS-WACO AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TRICKY PART IS THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE
OR A SECOND AREA OF STORMS THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND TRACKS INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SETX WITH DAYTIME HEATING
BY AROUND NOON. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SETX LOOKS TO SUPPORT DECENT
INSTABILITY (LI -5 TO -8 AND CAPE OF 2400-4000...THIS MAY AGAIN BE
DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN) SHEAR AT LEAST EARLY
TODAY WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT STILL CAPPED. AS THE HEATING GETS FULLY
UNDERWAY LATE THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF STRONG LL WINDS SHIFTS
WESTWARD AND THE SHEAR LESSENS WITH LESS TURNING AND LESS SPEED
SHEAR. SPC HAS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN ENHANCED
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO WHAT TO DO WITH THE FORECAST... FOR THIS
MORNING THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK A GOOD DEAL LOWER SO HAVE DROPPED THEM
BACK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST WHERE 50 POPS SHOULD STAND AND ADDED
SHRA THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TSRA AFTER. THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE (HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO).  WITH ALL OF THE
WIND ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THINKING THAT THESE
STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND DEPART THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS GUIDANCE HASN`T ALWAYS BEEN ON THE MARK WITH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.  SPEAKING OF WHICH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
HELPING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT THE SOILS ARE STILL
SATURATED AND MAY SEE THE STORMS TRAINING FOR AN HOUR WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING. HEAVIER RAINS WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MORE IFFY THAN ACROSS
THE NORTH.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OFF BY EARLY IN THE MORNING
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE
WARMER...WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME I HAVE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TO HIT 90 THIS YEAR. THIS YEAR SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE RECORD. THE RECORD HIGHS SHOW THE SECOND HEAT WAVE OF
DROUGHT RIDDEN MAY IN 2011 HOLDING MANY RECORDS INCLUDING A WHOPPING
98 AT IAH...SO 5-8 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
A GOOD DEAL LOWER AS WELL AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS
A WEAK SEABREEZE.

45

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC ROUGHLY
NEAR 29 N 144 W... WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
RIDGING OVERHEAD MID TO LATE WEEK... TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONSIST OF
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/.
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN TEXAS
BY FRIDAY AND SWING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
HAPPENS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD AND SHOULD SEE WINDS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS COME DOWN TOWARD MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY SEE SOME MORE BEACH FLOODING WITH
THE ELEVATED TIDES COMBINED WITH THE RUNUP. RIP CURRENTS SHOULD
STILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE THE RIP CURRENT
ADVISORY. A LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY AND A RETURN A MORE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  89  73  86 /  70  40  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  72  89  74  87 /  60  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251003
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
RAPID EXPANSION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WATER VAPOR
CLEARLY SHOWS A VERY VIGOROUS S/W MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE S/W. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
NEAR MIDLAND SHORTLY AND EXPECT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE S/W TO BE
NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. LLJ IS QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING AND MODELS HAVE REALLY
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/ARW ALL SHOWED
SPEEDS AT 850 OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WHILE VWP AT CRP SHOWED 50 KNOTS/HGX
40 KNOTS. THIS STRONGER RETURN FLOW MAY HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER YESTERDAYS STRONGER AND VERY PROGRESSIVE
MCS SCOURED OUT THE MOISTURE.

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PW OF 1.2-1.3 OVER THE AREA AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9" BY
LATE AFTERNOON (THIS MAY BE OVERDONE). FULLY EXPECT THIS S/W COMING
THROUGH TEXAS TO CREATE A LINE OF STORMS BUT THAT IT MAY TURN
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DALLAS-WACO AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TRICKY PART IS THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE
OR A SECOND AREA OF STORMS THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND TRACKS INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SETX WITH DAYTIME HEATING
BY AROUND NOON. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SETX LOOKS TO SUPPORT DECENT
INSTABILITY (LI -5 TO -8 AND CAPE OF 2400-4000...THIS MAY AGAIN BE
DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN) SHEAR AT LEAST EARLY
TODAY WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT STILL CAPPED. AS THE HEATING GETS FULLY
UNDERWAY LATE THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF STRONG LL WINDS SHIFTS
WESTWARD AND THE SHEAR LESSENS WITH LESS TURNING AND LESS SPEED
SHEAR. SPC HAS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN ENHANCED
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO WHAT TO DO WITH THE FORECAST... FOR THIS
MORNING THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK A GOOD DEAL LOWER SO HAVE DROPPED THEM
BACK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST WHERE 50 POPS SHOULD STAND AND ADDED
SHRA THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TSRA AFTER. THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE (HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO).  WITH ALL OF THE
WIND ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THINKING THAT THESE
STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND DEPART THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS GUIDANCE HASN`T ALWAYS BEEN ON THE MARK WITH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.  SPEAKING OF WHICH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
HELPING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT THE SOILS ARE STILL
SATURATED AND MAY SEE THE STORMS TRAINING FOR AN HOUR WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING. HEAVIER RAINS WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MORE IFFY THAN ACROSS
THE NORTH.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OFF BY EARLY IN THE MORNING
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE
WARMER...WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME I HAVE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TO HIT 90 THIS YEAR. THIS YEAR SHOULD TURN OUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE RECORD. THE RECORD HIGHS SHOW THE SECOND HEAT WAVE OF
DROUGHT RIDDEN MAY IN 2011 HOLDING MANY RECORDS INCLUDING A WHOPPING
98 AT IAH...SO 5-8 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
A GOOD DEAL LOWER AS WELL AND DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS
A WEAK SEABREEZE.

45

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM AS A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC ROUGHLY
NEAR 29 N 144 W... WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
RIDGING OVERHEAD MID TO LATE WEEK... TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONSIST OF
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/.
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO PROMOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN TEXAS
BY FRIDAY AND SWING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
HAPPENS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD AND SHOULD SEE WINDS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS COME DOWN TOWARD MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY SEE SOME MORE BEACH FLOODING WITH
THE ELEVATED TIDES COMBINED WITH THE RUNUP. RIP CURRENTS SHOULD
STILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE THE RIP CURRENT
ADVISORY. A LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY AND A RETURN A MORE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  89  73  86 /  70  40  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  72  89  74  87 /  60  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 250457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME
OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT
BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET
DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.

STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  71  87  74 /  20  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  87  74 /  20  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  78  85  78 /  20  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 250457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME
OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT
BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET
DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.

STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  71  87  74 /  20  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  87  74 /  20  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  78  85  78 /  20  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 250457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME
OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT
BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET
DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.

STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  71  87  74 /  20  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  87  74 /  20  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  78  85  78 /  20  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 250457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME
OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT
BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET
DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.

STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  71  87  74 /  20  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  87  74 /  20  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  78  85  78 /  20  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 250327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.

STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  71  87  74 /  20  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  87  74 /  20  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  78  85  78 /  20  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 250327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST
MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG.

STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS
QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND
INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  71  87  74 /  20  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  87  74 /  20  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  78  85  78 /  20  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242322
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 242322
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242322
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 242322
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242044 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242044 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 242044
AFDHGX
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHGX 242044 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242044
AFDHGX
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHGX 242044 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 242038
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TUES NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242038
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TUES NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 242038
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TUES NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 242038
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC.
ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE
MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED
YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A
RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10
ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER
SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING
ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT
STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE.

NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED
ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES.

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TUES NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH
DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN
TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21
KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH
RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT
SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  84  71  87  74 /  50  90  70  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  84  72  87  74 /  30  80  60  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  78  85  78 /  30  80  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241804
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND OF THE VORTICITY CENTER MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER KCLL...KUTS...AND
KCXO. THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY
THIN OUT ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40
GIVES THE TIMING FOR THE START OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE ONSET OF
STORMS COULD BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...BUT FELT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COULD BE AN INHIBITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THAT TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA FOR MOST OF REGION AND WILL EXPIRE EXTREME SE
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN TAPERS OFF THERE. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER
80S LATER THIS AFTN. LARGE COMPLEX IN NW GULF WILL HAMPER INFLOW
IN THE SHORT TERM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THINK OVERALL FF THREAT IS LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE
EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  73  82  72  86 /  50  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 /  40  50  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  78  83  77  84 /  90  50  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241804
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND OF THE VORTICITY CENTER MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER KCLL...KUTS...AND
KCXO. THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY
THIN OUT ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40
GIVES THE TIMING FOR THE START OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE ONSET OF
STORMS COULD BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...BUT FELT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COULD BE AN INHIBITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THAT TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA FOR MOST OF REGION AND WILL EXPIRE EXTREME SE
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN TAPERS OFF THERE. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER
80S LATER THIS AFTN. LARGE COMPLEX IN NW GULF WILL HAMPER INFLOW
IN THE SHORT TERM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THINK OVERALL FF THREAT IS LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE
EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  73  82  72  86 /  50  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 /  40  50  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  78  83  77  84 /  90  50  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 241804
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND OF THE VORTICITY CENTER MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER KCLL...KUTS...AND
KCXO. THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY
THIN OUT ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40
GIVES THE TIMING FOR THE START OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE ONSET OF
STORMS COULD BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...BUT FELT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COULD BE AN INHIBITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THAT TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA FOR MOST OF REGION AND WILL EXPIRE EXTREME SE
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN TAPERS OFF THERE. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER
80S LATER THIS AFTN. LARGE COMPLEX IN NW GULF WILL HAMPER INFLOW
IN THE SHORT TERM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THINK OVERALL FF THREAT IS LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE
EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  73  82  72  86 /  50  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 /  40  50  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  78  83  77  84 /  90  50  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 241510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA FOR MOST OF REGION AND WILL EXPIRE EXTREME SE
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN TAPERS OFF THERE. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER
80S LATER THIS AFTN. LARGE COMPLEX IN NW GULF WILL HAMPER INFLOW
IN THE SHORT TERM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THINK OVERALL FF THREAT IS LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE
EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  73  82  72  86 /  50  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 /  40  50  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  78  83  77  84 /  90  50  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA FOR MOST OF REGION AND WILL EXPIRE EXTREME SE
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN TAPERS OFF THERE. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER
80S LATER THIS AFTN. LARGE COMPLEX IN NW GULF WILL HAMPER INFLOW
IN THE SHORT TERM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THINK OVERALL FF THREAT IS LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE
EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  73  82  72  86 /  50  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 /  40  50  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  78  83  77  84 /  90  50  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 241012
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MCS MOVING UP THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING WINDS NEAR
OR ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...CAN`T RULE OUT TORNADOES
AS WELL WITH THE SHALLOW LL SHEAR PRESENT.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA REACHING THE I-45 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 11-14Z THEN SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST. THIS MAY GIVE THE
AREA A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM HEAVY RAINS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY GET MORE STORMS GOING BUT
NOT NEARLY AS ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPMENT FROM EAST OF THE AREA BACK INTO THE CWA.
VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH A RESTRENGTHENING
LLJ. THESE TWO SYSTEM MAY WELL MERGE OVER THE REGION...NOT SURE IF
IT WILL BE NORTH OR SOUTH BUT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. SO
LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON MONDAY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WITH MORE LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND LIMITED
HEATING TO WORK WITH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FOR ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AND HAVE ALSO ADDED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND THE RIP CURRENTS
ADVISORY.

VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE...VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CLUSTERING UP IN
THE MCV/COMMA COMING UP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 59 CORRIDOR
WHICH COULD EASILY FOCUS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM COLUMBUS TO
CONROE TO GROVETON...RAIN RATES OF 3+ INCHES PER HOUR AREN`T OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TODAY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER CLUSTERS. WITH MORE ON THE WAY FOR
TOMORROW.

45

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO EXIT REGION TOWARDS THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE /EVIDENCED WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/ WILL HELP LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DRIVEN MORE BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
LINEAR MCS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY
WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR WINDS 25-40+ KNOTS.   STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS OF 5-9 FEET
SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LOWERING. LARGE RUN
UP FROM THE SWELLS AND ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD LEAD TO FLOODED
BEACHES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. GRADUALLY WINDS COME DOWN TUESDAY
AND RIP TIDES SHOULD LESSEN.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  73  82  72  86 / 100  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 / 100  70  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  78  83  77  84 / 100  60  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 241012
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MCS MOVING UP THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING WINDS NEAR
OR ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...CAN`T RULE OUT TORNADOES
AS WELL WITH THE SHALLOW LL SHEAR PRESENT.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA REACHING THE I-45 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 11-14Z THEN SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST. THIS MAY GIVE THE
AREA A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM HEAVY RAINS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY GET MORE STORMS GOING BUT
NOT NEARLY AS ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPMENT FROM EAST OF THE AREA BACK INTO THE CWA.
VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH A RESTRENGTHENING
LLJ. THESE TWO SYSTEM MAY WELL MERGE OVER THE REGION...NOT SURE IF
IT WILL BE NORTH OR SOUTH BUT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. SO
LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON MONDAY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WITH MORE LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND LIMITED
HEATING TO WORK WITH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FOR ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AND HAVE ALSO ADDED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND THE RIP CURRENTS
ADVISORY.

VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE...VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CLUSTERING UP IN
THE MCV/COMMA COMING UP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 59 CORRIDOR
WHICH COULD EASILY FOCUS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM COLUMBUS TO
CONROE TO GROVETON...RAIN RATES OF 3+ INCHES PER HOUR AREN`T OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TODAY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER CLUSTERS. WITH MORE ON THE WAY FOR
TOMORROW.

45

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO EXIT REGION TOWARDS THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE /EVIDENCED WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/ WILL HELP LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DRIVEN MORE BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
LINEAR MCS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY
WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR WINDS 25-40+ KNOTS.   STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS OF 5-9 FEET
SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LOWERING. LARGE RUN
UP FROM THE SWELLS AND ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD LEAD TO FLOODED
BEACHES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. GRADUALLY WINDS COME DOWN TUESDAY
AND RIP TIDES SHOULD LESSEN.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  73  82  72  86 / 100  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 / 100  70  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  78  83  77  84 / 100  60  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 240531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED THROUGH CLL (WINDS GUSTED TO 31 KNOTS) AND ARE
HEADED TOWARD UTS. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPERIENCING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS BY 12Z.
NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
25/06Z TAFS HAVE PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED A BREAK AROUND
25/03Z...BUT BROUGHT SHRA BACK INTO THE IAH TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (25/09Z-25/12Z) IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS AND BOW ECHO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HILL COUNTRY AND
NOW MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
INCORRECTLY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

PATTERN IN GENERAL WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STORMY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO
COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TOO.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  83  72  85  72 /  50  80  70  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  82  75  85  74 /  70  70  60  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  83  77  84  78 /  80  80  60  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 240531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED THROUGH CLL (WINDS GUSTED TO 31 KNOTS) AND ARE
HEADED TOWARD UTS. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPERIENCING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS BY 12Z.
NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
25/06Z TAFS HAVE PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED A BREAK AROUND
25/03Z...BUT BROUGHT SHRA BACK INTO THE IAH TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (25/09Z-25/12Z) IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS AND BOW ECHO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HILL COUNTRY AND
NOW MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
INCORRECTLY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

PATTERN IN GENERAL WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STORMY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO
COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TOO.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  83  72  85  72 /  50  80  70  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  82  75  85  74 /  70  70  60  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  83  77  84  78 /  80  80  60  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 240313
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS AND BOW ECHO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HILL COUNTRY AND
NOW MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
INCORRECTLY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

PATTERN IN GENERAL WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STORMY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 46

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO
COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TOO. &&

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SPOTTY SHRA COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINING EVENING HOURS...THEN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THESE STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED...AND IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH +TSRA AND VERY GUSTY
S TO SE WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD ON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  70  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 232339
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO)
AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER TOO. &&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SPOTTY SHRA COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINING EVENING HOURS...THEN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THESE STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED...AND IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH +TSRA AND VERY GUSTY
S TO SE WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD ON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...36
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 232339
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO)
AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER TOO. &&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SPOTTY SHRA COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINING EVENING HOURS...THEN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THESE STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED...AND IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH +TSRA AND VERY GUSTY
S TO SE WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD ON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...36
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 232043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 232043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 232043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 231740
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AS OF 17Z WILL AFFECT SITES MAINLY FROM KIAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED SO WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE UPDATE...JUST
TWEAKED POPS UP A TOUCH INLAND AND RAISED HIGHS 1-3F. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MAKES ITS
WAY INTO W PARTS OF CWA AFTER 2AM. WITH BRIEF GLANCE ON AVAIL 12Z
DATA...HVY RAIN/SVR THREAT STILL THERE.

ALSO GOING TO ISSUE A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR REMAINDER OF
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GALVESTON BEACH PATROL REPORTING STRONG RIPS AND
IT IS JUST GOING TO GET WORSE SUN/MON AS SEAS AND SURF REALLY
BUILD.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  70  78  71  81 /  50  50  80  50  90
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  73  81  74  81 /  50  40  80  80  90
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  82  78  82 /  30  40  80  80  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 231740
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AS OF 17Z WILL AFFECT SITES MAINLY FROM KIAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED SO WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE UPDATE...JUST
TWEAKED POPS UP A TOUCH INLAND AND RAISED HIGHS 1-3F. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MAKES ITS
WAY INTO W PARTS OF CWA AFTER 2AM. WITH BRIEF GLANCE ON AVAIL 12Z
DATA...HVY RAIN/SVR THREAT STILL THERE.

ALSO GOING TO ISSUE A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR REMAINDER OF
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GALVESTON BEACH PATROL REPORTING STRONG RIPS AND
IT IS JUST GOING TO GET WORSE SUN/MON AS SEAS AND SURF REALLY
BUILD.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  70  78  71  81 /  50  50  80  50  90
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  73  81  74  81 /  50  40  80  80  90
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  82  78  82 /  30  40  80  80  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231740
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AS OF 17Z WILL AFFECT SITES MAINLY FROM KIAH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED SO WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE UPDATE...JUST
TWEAKED POPS UP A TOUCH INLAND AND RAISED HIGHS 1-3F. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MAKES ITS
WAY INTO W PARTS OF CWA AFTER 2AM. WITH BRIEF GLANCE ON AVAIL 12Z
DATA...HVY RAIN/SVR THREAT STILL THERE.

ALSO GOING TO ISSUE A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR REMAINDER OF
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GALVESTON BEACH PATROL REPORTING STRONG RIPS AND
IT IS JUST GOING TO GET WORSE SUN/MON AS SEAS AND SURF REALLY
BUILD.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  70  78  71  81 /  50  50  80  50  90
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  73  81  74  81 /  50  40  80  80  90
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  82  78  82 /  30  40  80  80  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 231554
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1054 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED SO WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE UPDATE...JUST
TWEAKED POPS UP A TOUCH INLAND AND RAISED HIGHS 1-3F. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MAKES ITS
WAY INTO W PARTS OF CWA AFTER 2AM. WITH BRIEF GLANCE ON AVAIL 12Z
DATA...HVY RAIN/SVR THREAT STILL THERE.

ALSO GOING TO ISSUE A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR REMAINDER OF
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GALVESTON BEACH PATROL REPORTING STRONG RIPS AND
IT IS JUST GOING TO GET WORSE SUN/MON AS SEAS AND SURF REALLY
BUILD.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  70  78  71  81 /  50  50  80  50  90
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  73  81  74  81 /  50  40  80  80  90
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  82  78  82 /  30  40  80  80  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




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