Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311545
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT DEWPOINT TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S WITH RH IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR 25-30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TO AROUND 20KTS SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR
THE AREA MAINLY W AND SW OF HOUSTON. MAIN FORECAST UPDATE DID
ADJUST CLOUD COVER FOR ONGOING TRENDS AS WELL AS TEMPS. MAX TEMPS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE AREA THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS.

39

&&

MARINE...

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH WINDS INCREASING
STARTED THE SCA AN HOUR EARLIER. WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW PRETTY HARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS IN THE PROFILERS/MODELS
SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE GULF WATERS EXTENDED THE SCA TO 15Z BUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MAY DROP OFF SOONER.
45

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE AREA OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OR SOME LINGERING CI FROM
THE MCS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME UP BUT AS TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES BETWEEN 16-17Z WINDS
SHOULD RAMP UP ABRUPTLY WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS. WINDS DO DROP
OFF TONIGHT AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST.
45

FIRE WEATHER...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20%
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DRY
SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  40  65  42  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  45  67  43  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  56  65  56  71 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 311118
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF COLLEGE STATION THIS MORNING
AND HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING LEAVING CLEAR AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. KHGX VWP
THIS MORNING SHOWING 25 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO MIX DOWN AS THE SUN RISES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO DRIFT EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER
TO THE EAST. VFR THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT HAS
TRIGGERED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AREA OF
PRECIP IS CLIPPING THE WESTERN EDGE OF SE TX. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL EITHER WANE OR BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SO WILL NOT CARRY
POPS THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
SHREVEPORT TO COLLEGE STATION TO HONDO. A COLD FRONT LAGGED A BIT
BEHIND AND EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO WACO TO SAN ANGELO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE RAPID PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. DEW PTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE
30`S AND THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY. RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. TEMPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CAA
WILL COMPETE WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND THEN PUSH
EAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH SAT/SUN MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NE ZONES EACH MORNING AND
LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.

THINGS GET MUDDLED IN A HURRY FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. 00Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE 12Z RUNS. NOW THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY
STALL OR SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT INTO SE TX. THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT TO A CROCKETT TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLUMBUS LINE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND AN ACTIVE JETSTREAM ALOFT...FEEL
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AND INCREASED SKY COVER. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. 43

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF THE COAST MIDMORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE REACHING
SCEC CRITERIA AROUND 10 AM AND THEN ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A SCEC FOR THIS MORNING AND A SCA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECASTED. SEAS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD AND LIKELY REACH 7 FEET BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO PULL EAST SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. ONSHORE WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. 23

FIRE WEATHER...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20%
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DRY
SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  40  65  42  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  45  67  43  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  56  65  56  71 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20
     NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4
     PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310904
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT HAS
TRIGGERED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AREA OF
PRECIP IS CLIPPING THE WESTERN EDGE OF SE TX. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL EITHER WANE OR BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SO WILL NOT CARRY
POPS THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
SHREVEPORT TO COLLEGE STATION TO HONDO. A COLD FRONT LAGGED A BIT
BEHIND AND EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO WACO TO SAN ANGELO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE RAPID PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. DEW PTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE
30`S AND THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY. RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. TEMPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CAA
WILL COMPETE WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND THEN PUSH
EAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH SAT/SUN MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NE ZONES EACH MORNING AND
LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.

THINGS GET MUDDLED IN A HURRY FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. 00Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE 12Z RUNS. NOW THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY
STALL OR SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT INTO SE TX. THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT TO A CROCKETT TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLUMBUS LINE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND AN ACTIVE JETSTREAM ALOFT...FEEL
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AND INCREASED SKY COVER. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. 43

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF THE COAST MIDMORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE REACHING
SCEC CRITERIA AROUND 10 AM AND THEN ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A SCEC FOR THIS MORNING AND A SCA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECASTED. SEAS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD AND LIKELY REACH 7 FEET BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO PULL EAST SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. ONSHORE WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. 23

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20%
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DRY
SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. 23


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  40  65  42  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  45  67  43  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  56  65  56  71 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20
     NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THE FIRST THIRD OF THE PERIOD...POST-
SUNRISE MIX DOWN WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST NORTHERLIES OCCURRING AT
OR JUST AFTER 15Z. MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COMING HOURS OVER
KCLL...BUT PRIMARILY A DRY FROPA WITH A FEW-SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DECK. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...
AND THE CURRENT 20% POPS FOR THAT AREA LOOK GOOD.  42

MARINE...
WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...HAVE HOISTED CAUTION FLAGS FOR ALL WATER
BEGINNING AT 10 AM TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT...ADVISORY
FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A TIGHT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN
TANDEM WITH A BACKING COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS...WILL STRENGTHEN
DAYTIME SURFACE NORTHERLIES TO 15G25KTS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL
DIP INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND AREAS...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNINGS SINCE MID MAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME LATE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. 38

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCEC/SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS TIME FOR 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 7
FEET. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL
RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD BEEN QUITE
DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS FASTER
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL SLOWER. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  73  42  65  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  75  45  68  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  75  56  66  56 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1047 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...
AND THE CURRENT 20% POPS FOR THAT AREA LOOK GOOD.  42
&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...HAVE HOISTED CAUTION FLAGS FOR ALL WATER
BEGINNING AT 10 AM TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT...ADVISORY
FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  31
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A TIGHT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN
TANDEM WITH A BACKING COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS...WILL STRENGTHEN
DAYTIME SURFACE NORTHERLIES TO 15G25KTS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL
DIP INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND AREAS...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNINGS SINCE MID MAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME LATE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. 38

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCEC/SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS TIME FOR 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 7
FEET. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL
RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD BEEN QUITE
DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS FASTER
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL SLOWER. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  73  42  65  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  75  45  68  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  75  56  66  56 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1047 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...
AND THE CURRENT 20% POPS FOR THAT AREA LOOK GOOD.  42
&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...HAVE HOISTED CAUTION FLAGS FOR ALL WATER
BEGINNING AT 10 AM TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT...ADVISORY
FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  31
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A TIGHT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN
TANDEM WITH A BACKING COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS...WILL STRENGTHEN
DAYTIME SURFACE NORTHERLIES TO 15G25KTS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL
DIP INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND AREAS...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNINGS SINCE MID MAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME LATE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. 38

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCEC/SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS TIME FOR 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 7
FEET. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL
RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD BEEN QUITE
DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS FASTER
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL SLOWER. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  73  42  65  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  75  45  68  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  75  56  66  56 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 302359
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
659 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A TIGHT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN
TANDEM WITH A BACKING COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS...WILL STRENGTHEN
DAYTIME SURFACE NORTHERLIES TO 15G25KTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL
DIP INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND AREAS...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNINGS SINCE MID MAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME LATE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. 38

&&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCEC/SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS TIME FOR 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 7
FEET. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL
RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD BEEN QUITE
DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS FASTER
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL SLOWER. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  73  42  65  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  75  45  68  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  75  56  66  56 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 302047
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL
DIP INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND AREAS...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNINGS SINCE MID MAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME LATE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. 38

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SCEC/SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THIS TIME FOR 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 7 FEET. THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING
IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BUILD SEAS
AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD BEEN QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL SLOWER. 39

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  73  42  65  43 /  40  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  75  45  68  44 /  20  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  75  56  66  56 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301801
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
101 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS HOLDING ON AT KLBX WHILE CLEARING OUT
OF KGLS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO SLOWLY ERODE BETWEEN 18-20Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. SFC ANALYSIS AT 17Z HAD FRONT THRU C OK AND TX
PANHANDLE. FRONT SHOULD PUSHE INTO THE AREA RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND THEN OFF THE COAST QUICKLY BY 12Z FRI. OVERALL INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL BE SLIGHT TO START FROM 09Z TO 12Z BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH MIXING DURING THE DAY. TAFS NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WINDS FOR TOMORROW WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS IN SEVERAL AREAS. FRONT
MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT MORE SO OVER C TX. DID KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH FOR KCLL BUT REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THIS
FRONT. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  57  73  45  65 /  10  40  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  58  76  47  68 /  10  20  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  75  56  66 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THIS
FRONT. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  57  73  45  65 /  10  40  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  58  76  47  68 /  10  20  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  75  56  66 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301121
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLBX AND KGLS.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING SO
OTHER THAN KGLS...FEEL CONDS WILL BE VFR. KHGX VWP SHOWS 20-25 KT
E-NE WINDS AND FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE TOO LIGHT WITH SPEEDS SO
INCREASED SPEEDS FOR THIS MORNING ONCE MIXING BEGINS.ONLY OTHER
CHANGE TO PREV TAF PCKG WAS TO ADD VCSH FOR KCLL LATE TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA. FCST SOUNDING AT KCLL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GET
THUNDER BUT WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING JUST OUTSIDE
OUR COASTAL WATERS IN AN AREA OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG YESTERDAY/S FRONT. DRY AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT /WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/
WAS HELPING TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO AREAS
REPORTING LOWERED VISIBILITIES.

THE GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTED OF RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST...PLACING THE INTERIOR
OF THE COUNTRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE... 08Z ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE NEXT...STRONGER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
STRETCHING ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL PUSH THIS FRONT TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS FRONT TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 09Z TOMORROW...HAVING MADE IT TO
THE COAST BY 15Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP...TO ABOUT 10-15 MPH OUT
OF THE NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW.

REMNANT GULF MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE
/AROUND 850 MB/ WILL EXPERIENCE ENOUGH LIFT AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS /INCLUDING THE TTU
WRF...ARW...AND NMM/ SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE
HOW FAR EAST ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS...AND THIS WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...THINK
THE GREATEST CHANCES RESIDE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR
WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE HIGHER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE IT ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE FALL ON FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70/S. BY FRIDAY EVENING...
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A GREAT HALLOWEEN EVENING. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE/VE SEEN AT HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL THIS YEAR SINCE MAY 15.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF STILL
DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE... BRINGING A DEEP...OPEN WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN ALSO ALLOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF INSTEAD MEANDERS A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS...AND DOESN/T PUSH THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL TAP INTO GULF AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO INSTILL
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

14/MH

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TODAY.
A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NITE AND A SCEC/SCA MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SAT NITE. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. THE ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF SE TX AND WASHES THE
FRONT OUT. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  73  45  65  44 /  40  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  76  47  68  45 /  20  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  75  56  66  57 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300908
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING JUST OUTSIDE
OUR COASTAL WATERS IN AN AREA OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG YESTERDAY/S FRONT. DRY AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT /WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/
WAS HELPING TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO AREAS
REPORTING LOWERED VISIBILITIES.

THE GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTED OF RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST...PLACING THE INTERIOR
OF THE COUNTRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE... 08Z ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE NEXT...STRONGER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
STRETCHING ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL PUSH THIS FRONT TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS FRONT TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 09Z TOMORROW...HAVING MADE IT TO
THE COAST BY 15Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP...TO ABOUT 10-15 MPH OUT
OF THE NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW.

REMNANT GULF MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE
/AROUND 850 MB/ WILL EXPERIENCE ENOUGH LIFT AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS /INCLUDING THE TTU
WRF...ARW...AND NMM/ SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE
HOW FAR EAST ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS...AND THIS WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...THINK
THE GREATEST CHANCES RESIDE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR
WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE HIGHER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE IT ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE FALL ON FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70/S. BY FRIDAY EVENING...
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A GREAT HALLOWEEN EVENING. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE/VE SEEN AT HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL THIS YEAR SINCE MAY 15.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF STILL
DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE... BRINGING A DEEP...OPEN WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN ALSO ALLOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF INSTEAD MEANDERS A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS...AND DOESN/T PUSH THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL TAP INTO GULF AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO INSTILL
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

14/MH

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TODAY.
A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NITE AND A SCEC/SCA MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SAT NITE. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. THE ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF SE TX AND WASHES THE
FRONT OUT. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  57  73  45  65 /  10  40  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  58  76  47  68 /  10  20  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  75  56  66 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR SKC FROM METRO AND POINTS NORTH AS A DRIER AIR MASS
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. RURAL...WIND PROTECTED LOCALES
WILL EXPERIENCE EARLY AM PATCHY FOG (KUTS OR KCXO). LINGERING
OVERNIGHT VFR TO PERIODIC MVFR DECKS CLOSER TO COAST...WITH A
LATE MORNING SCATTER OUT. EASTERLY BREEZE WITH A LATE PERIOD
BACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE LARGE U.S. PLAINS HIGH
BEGINS TO EXPAND TOWARDS TEXAS AND TIGHTENS FRIDAY`S OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO ONLY CARRY POPS
FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALMOST
ALL MOVED OFF THE COAST...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. QUIET THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AFFECTING KLBX`S AND KGLS`S AIR SPACE...FOCUSING
UPON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THAT FORMED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CLEARING OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE CITY NORTHWARD...MVFR CATS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE OVERLYING PASSAGE OF THE SCT SHRA/ISO TS
MESOSCALE ACTIVITY WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT EVENING DECKS TO VFR...THE
BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS THAT...WITH
A WEAKER LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD...SHOULD LOWER COASTAL COUNTY CEILINGS
BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. AS DRY AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FROM
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAYTIME (THURSDAY) MORNING HOURS...WITH MORE AREAWIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON INTO EARLY EVENING. A VARIABLE
TO EASTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAYS FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE THE TALE OF 3 FRONTS. THE
FIRST FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH SE TX. WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AT KSGR AND KHOU IN 20Z OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS AT LEAST
MADE IT THAT FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS ARE
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH MVFR CIGS. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT KHGX 88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND IN
FACT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS DUMPED SOME RAIN HERE AT THE OFFICE AT
THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. IMPACTS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA
OF A FEW STORM SO THE 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK FOR
THE SHORT TERM. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 01-03Z TONIGHT.

FRONT 1 SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH OUT INTO THE GULF WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND IT INTO THUR MORNING. LIGHT/MODERATE NE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS.
THIS STILL SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THURSDAY FRONT 2 SHOULD COME INTO THE PICTURE AND WILL HAVE A MUCH
LARGER IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THIS AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED AT THE CANADA/MONTANA BORDER AND SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW. A 1036MB SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR FRONT 2 TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES SO TOOK OUT
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FRI INTO SAT SO MAX TEMPS FRI ARE UNDER GUIDANCE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. SAT MORNING LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE 40S TO START OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TRACK. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO LINGER AROUND 10-11C FOR THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW.

THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 18 HRS APART IN FRONTAL PASSAGE OF FRONT
3. THE 12Z GFS HAS FRONT 3 COMING THROUGH HOUSTON AROUND 18Z TUE
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT TO HOUSTON BY 12Z WED OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AT MODEL TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY...LEANING A BIT MORE
ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z GFS RUN. THAT SAID THE 12Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
UNTIL MODEL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED.

EVEN THOUGH THIS IS DAY 6/7 OF THE FORECAST...DESERVES MENTION
THAT THERE WILL BE A INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HANGS BACK OVER THE S
ROCKIES. THE SLOWER ECMWF WILL GIVE MORE TIME FOR THIS MOISTURE TO
RIDE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT COULD
INTERACT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
(PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES PER GFS). RAIN CHANCES OF 30/40
PERCENT LOOK ON TRACK DURING THIS TIME BUT COULD BE HIGHER. THIS
MIGHT BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN
AROUND SE TX THE LAST WEEK WHICH HAS BEEN DRY. 39

&&

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND
STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF SHORE FRIDAY. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED IN OFFSHORE AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESUME AND QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SUNDAY. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  80  56  73  44 /  10  10  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  56  75  47 /  10  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  77  64  74  56 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300305
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1005 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO ONLY CARRY POPS
FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALMOST
ALL MOVED OFF THE COAST...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. QUIET THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AFFECTING KLBX`S AND KGLS`S AIR SPACE...FOCUSING
UPON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THAT FORMED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CLEARING OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE CITY NORTHWARD...MVFR CATS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE OVERLYING PASSAGE OF THE SCT SHRA/ISO TS
MESOSCALE ACTIVITY WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT EVENING DECKS TO VFR...THE
BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS THAT...WITH
A WEAKER LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD...SHOULD LOWER COASTAL COUNTY CEILINGS
BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. AS DRY AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FROM
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAYTIME (THURSDAY) MORNING HOURS...WITH MORE AREAWIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON INTO EARLY EVENING. A VARIABLE
TO EASTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAYS FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE THE TALE OF 3 FRONTS. THE
FIRST FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH SE TX. WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AT KSGR AND KHOU IN 20Z OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS AT LEAST
MADE IT THAT FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS ARE
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH MVFR CIGS. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT KHGX 88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND IN
FACT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS DUMPED SOME RAIN HERE AT THE OFFICE AT
THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. IMPACTS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA
OF A FEW STORM SO THE 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK FOR
THE SHORT TERM. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 01-03Z TONIGHT.

FRONT 1 SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH OUT INTO THE GULF WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND IT INTO THUR MORNING. LIGHT/MODERATE NE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS.
THIS STILL SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THURSDAY FRONT 2 SHOULD COME INTO THE PICTURE AND WILL HAVE A MUCH
LARGER IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THIS AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED AT THE CANADA/MONTANA BORDER AND SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW. A 1036MB SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR FRONT 2 TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES SO TOOK OUT
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FRI INTO SAT SO MAX TEMPS FRI ARE UNDER GUIDANCE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. SAT MORNING LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE 40S TO START OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TRACK. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO LINGER AROUND 10-11C FOR THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW.

THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 18 HRS APART IN FRONTAL PASSAGE OF FRONT
3. THE 12Z GFS HAS FRONT 3 COMING THROUGH HOUSTON AROUND 18Z TUE
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT TO HOUSTON BY 12Z WED OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AT MODEL TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY...LEANING A BIT MORE
ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z GFS RUN. THAT SAID THE 12Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
UNTIL MODEL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED.

EVEN THOUGH THIS IS DAY 6/7 OF THE FORECAST...DESERVES MENTION
THAT THERE WILL BE A INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HANGS BACK OVER THE S
ROCKIES. THE SLOWER ECMWF WILL GIVE MORE TIME FOR THIS MOISTURE TO
RIDE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT COULD
INTERACT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
(PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES PER GFS). RAIN CHANCES OF 30/40
PERCENT LOOK ON TRACK DURING THIS TIME BUT COULD BE HIGHER. THIS
MIGHT BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN
AROUND SE TX THE LAST WEEK WHICH HAS BEEN DRY. 39

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND
STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF SHORE FRIDAY. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED IN OFFSHORE AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESUME AND QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SUNDAY. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  80  56  73  44 /  10  10  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  56  75  47 /  10  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  77  64  74  56 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292357
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
657 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AFFECTING KLBX`S AND KGLS`S AIR SPACE...FOCUSING
UPON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THAT FORMED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CLEARING OFF TO THE NORTH WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE CITY NORTHWARD...MVFR CATS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE OVERLYING PASSAGE OF THE SCT SHRA/ISO TS
MESOSCALE ACTIVITY WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT EVENING DECKS TO VFR...THE
BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS THAT...WITH
A WEAKER LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD...SHOULD LOWER COASTAL COUNTY CEILINGS
BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. AS DRY AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FROM
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAYTIME (THURSDAY) MORNING HOURS...WITH MORE AREAWIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON INTO EARLY EVENING. A VARIABLE
TO EASTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAYS FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE THE TALE OF 3 FRONTS. THE
FIRST FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH SE TX. WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AT KSGR AND KHOU IN 20Z OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS AT LEAST
MADE IT THAT FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS ARE
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH MVFR CIGS. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT KHGX 88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND IN
FACT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS DUMPED SOME RAIN HERE AT THE OFFICE AT
THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. IMPACTS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA
OF A FEW STORM SO THE 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK FOR
THE SHORT TERM. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 01-03Z TONIGHT.

FRONT 1 SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH OUT INTO THE GULF WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND IT INTO THUR MORNING. LIGHT/MODERATE NE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS.
THIS STILL SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THURSDAY FRONT 2 SHOULD COME INTO THE PICTURE AND WILL HAVE A MUCH
LARGER IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THIS AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED AT THE CANADA/MONTANA BORDER AND SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW. A 1036MB SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR FRONT 2 TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES SO TOOK OUT
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FRI INTO SAT SO MAX TEMPS FRI ARE UNDER GUIDANCE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. SAT MORNING LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE 40S TO START OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TRACK. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO LINGER AROUND 10-11C FOR THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW.

THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 18 HRS APART IN FRONTAL PASSAGE OF FRONT
3. THE 12Z GFS HAS FRONT 3 COMING THROUGH HOUSTON AROUND 18Z TUE
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT TO HOUSTON BY 12Z WED OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AT MODEL TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY...LEANING A BIT MORE
ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z GFS RUN. THAT SAID THE 12Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
UNTIL MODEL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED.

EVEN THOUGH THIS IS DAY 6/7 OF THE FORECAST...DESERVES MENTION
THAT THERE WILL BE A INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HANGS BACK OVER THE S
ROCKIES. THE SLOWER ECMWF WILL GIVE MORE TIME FOR THIS MOISTURE TO
RIDE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT COULD
INTERACT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
(PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES PER GFS). RAIN CHANCES OF 30/40
PERCENT LOOK ON TRACK DURING THIS TIME BUT COULD BE HIGHER. THIS
MIGHT BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN
AROUND SE TX THE LAST WEEK WHICH HAS BEEN DRY. 39

&&

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND
STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF SHORE FRIDAY. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED IN OFFSHORE AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESUME AND QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SUNDAY. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  80  56  73  44 /  10  10  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  56  75  47 /  10  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  77  64  74  56 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE THE TALE OF 3 FRONTS. THE
FIRST FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH SE TX. WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AT KSGR AND KHOU IN 20Z OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS AT LEAST
MADE IT THAT FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS ARE
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH MVFR CIGS. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT KHGX 88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND IN
FACT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS DUMPED SOME RAIN HERE AT THE OFFICE AT
THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. IMPACTS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA
OF A FEW STORM SO THE 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK FOR
THE SHORT TERM. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 01-03Z TONIGHT.

FRONT 1 SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH OUT INTO THE GULF WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND IT INTO THUR MORNING. LIGHT/MODERATE NE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
STILL SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THURSDAY FRONT 2 SHOULD COME INTO THE PICTURE AND WILL HAVE A MUCH
LARGER IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THIS AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED AT THE CANADA/MONTANA BORDER AND SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW. A 1036MB SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR FRONT 2 TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES SO TOOK OUT
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FRI INTO SAT SO MAX TEMPS FRI ARE UNDER GUIDANCE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. SAT MORNING LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE 40S TO START OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TRACK. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO LINGER AROUND 10-11C FOR THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW.

THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 18 HRS APART IN FRONTAL PASSAGE OF FRONT
3. THE 12Z GFS HAS FRONT 3 COMING THROUGH HOUSTON AROUND 18Z TUE
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT TO HOUSTON BY 12Z WED OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AT MODEL TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY...LEANING A BIT MORE
ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z GFS RUN. THAT SAID THE 12Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
UNTIL MODEL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED.

EVEN THOUGH THIS IS DAY 6/7 OF THE FORECAST...DESERVES MENTION
THAT THERE WILL BE A INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HANGS BACK OVER THE S
ROCKIES. THE SLOWER ECMWF WILL GIVE MORE TIME FOR THIS MOISTURE TO
RIDE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT COULD
INTERACT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
(PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES PER GFS). RAIN CHANCES OF 30/40
PERCENT LOOK ON TRACK DURING THIS TIME BUT COULD BE HIGHER. THIS
MIGHT BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN
AROUND SE TX THE LAST WEEK WHICH HAS BEEN DRY.

39


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF SHORE FRIDAY. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED IN OFFSHORE AREAS.
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE
FLOW TO RESUME AND QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  80  56  73  44 /  10  10  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  56  75  47 /  10  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  77  64  74  56 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291801
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
101 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY STALLING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT IS A BAND OF LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS THAT COVERS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SHOULD IMPACT THE
HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOOON AND CLEAR OUT BY MID
EVENING.

THE FRONT HAS NOT GENERATED ANY PRECIPITATION THUS FAR. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP WILL BE
KHOU/KSGR SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN. THE FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR THE COAST OVER NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
NEAR KLBX AND POSSIBLY KGLS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 16Z/11AM CDT...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A
CLEVELAND...CONROE...BRENHAM LINE. CLOUD COVER INCREASES BEHIND
THE FRONT SO EXPECT SOME LOWERING CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HOUSTON.
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE PULSE
TYPE WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONTAL TIMING.
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BEFORE STALLING TODAY. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH STRONGER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA
THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.

39/44

MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND MEANDER NEAR THE COAST ON THURDAY BEFORE GETTING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT STRONGER WITH OFFSHORE WINDS PROBABLY REACHING
CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESUME. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUN AFTN AND BEYOND. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  79  57  73  46 /  10  10  20  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  79  58  75  49 /  10  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  76  66  75  59 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291627
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 16Z/11AM CDT...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A
CLEVELAND...CONROE...BRENHAM LINE. CLOUD COVER INCREASES BEHIND
THE FRONT SO EXPECT SOME LOWERING CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HOUSTON.
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE PULSE
TYPE WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONTAL TIMING.
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BEFORE STALLING TODAY. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH STRONGER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA
THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.

39/44

&&

.MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND MEANDER NEAR THE COAST ON THURDAY BEFORE GETTING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT STRONGER WITH OFFSHORE WINDS PROBABLY REACHING
CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESUME. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUN AFTN AND BEYOND. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  79  57  73 /  20  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  60  79  58  75 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  66  75 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291627
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 16Z/11AM CDT...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A
CLEVELAND...CONROE...BRENHAM LINE. CLOUD COVER INCREASES BEHIND
THE FRONT SO EXPECT SOME LOWERING CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HOUSTON.
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE PULSE
TYPE WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONTAL TIMING.
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BEFORE STALLING TODAY. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH STRONGER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA
THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.

39/44

&&

.MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND MEANDER NEAR THE COAST ON THURDAY BEFORE GETTING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT STRONGER WITH OFFSHORE WINDS PROBABLY REACHING
CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESUME. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUN AFTN AND BEYOND. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  79  57  73 /  20  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  60  79  58  75 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  66  75 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE NW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
KCLL HAS CIGS NEAR 500 FEET AND NNE WIND. TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTH
ARE ENDURING SOME PATCHY FOG. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWA
TODAY WITH BRIEF LIFR/MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. THE
FRONT IS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN. AS THE FRONT
TRUDGES SOUTH...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WEAK SEA BREEZE AND FEEL THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP WILL BE KHOU/KSGR SOUTHWARD
DURING THE LATE AFTN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND FEEL SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR KLBX AND POSSIBLY
KGLS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SAGGING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...HAVING JUST BREACHED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
/BURLESON...BRAZOS...MADISON..HOUSTON/ AS OF 08Z. GULF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE
MILE. DEPENDING ON TRENDS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT TRUDGES TOWARDS
THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WEATHER CONCERNS WILL SHIFT FROM
FOG THIS MORNING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KFWD...KLCH...KCRP...AND KSHV SHOWED A DEFINED
CAP IN PLACE BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. BOTH GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME EROSION OF THE CAP THIS
AFTERNOON... AND WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG THINK AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ANY KIND OF ENHANCEMENT A
POTENTIAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT WILL HAVE FOR
COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE IF A SEABREEZE DOES DEVELOP AND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN IMPULSE MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN THIS FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE
CLIPPED BY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SECONDARY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RETURN HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAR SOUTH
THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA WILL AFFECT HOW COOL OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET. THE LATEST 00Z SUITE CONTINUES TO
BUILD THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER WEST AND OUR TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWN ACCORDINGLY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMBINED WITH THE COOL SURFACE HIGH IS MAKING
THE WEEKEND LOOK DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
UNDER 70 ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY WITH LOW 40/S CREEPING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS
A TROUGH BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING TEXAS BY MID-WEEK...DRAWING
IN BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE AS IT DOES. BOTH MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN /EFFECTIVELY OMITTING THE
CUTOFF LOW THEY WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY OVER THE OZARKS/ BUT
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH THE
GFS PUSHING IT THOUGH THE AREA AND THE ECMWF HANGING IT UP OVER
NORTH TEXAS. DEPENDING UPON THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...WE MAY MISS
OUT ON THE BETTER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT. GIVEN THESE
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST.

14/MH

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MEANDER NEAR THE COAST BEFORE GETTING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT ON FRIDAY IS LOOKING
A BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS PROBABLY REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA ON FRI
NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RETURN. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED SUN-TUE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUN AFTN AND BEYOND. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  58  79  57  73 /  30  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  60  79  58  75 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  66  75 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290936
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
436 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SAGGING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...HAVING JUST BREACHED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
/BURLESON...BRAZOS...MADISON..HOUSTON/ AS OF 08Z. GULF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE
MILE. DEPENDING ON TRENDS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT TRUDGES TOWARDS
THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WEATHER CONCERNS WILL SHIFT FROM
FOG THIS MORNING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KFWD...KLCH...KCRP...AND KSHV SHOWED A DEFINED
CAP IN PLACE BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. BOTH GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME EROSION OF THE CAP THIS
AFTERNOON... AND WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG THINK AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ANY KIND OF ENHANCEMENT A
POTENTIAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT WILL HAVE FOR
COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE IF A SEABREEZE DOES DEVELOP AND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN IMPULSE MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN THIS FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE
CLIPPED BY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SECONDARY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RETURN HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAR SOUTH
THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA WILL AFFECT HOW COOL OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET. THE LATEST 00Z SUITE CONTINUES TO
BUILD THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER WEST AND OUR TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWN ACCORDINGLY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMBINED WITH THE COOL SURFACE HIGH IS MAKING
THE WEEKEND LOOK DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
UNDER 70 ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY WITH LOW 40/S CREEPING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS
A TROUGH BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING TEXAS BY MID-WEEK...DRAWING
IN BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE AS IT DOES. BOTH MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN /EFFECTIVELY OMITTING THE
CUTOFF LOW THEY WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY OVER THE OZARKS/ BUT
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH THE
GFS PUSHING IT THOUGH THE AREA AND THE ECMWF HANGING IT UP OVER
NORTH TEXAS. DEPENDING UPON THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...WE MAY MISS
OUT ON THE BETTER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT. GIVEN THESE
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST.

14/MH

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MEANDER NEAR THE COAST BEFORE GETTING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT ON FRIDAY IS LOOKING
A BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS PROBABLY REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA ON FRI
NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RETURN. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED SUN-TUE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUN AFTN AND BEYOND. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  58  79  57  73 /  30  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  60  79  58  75 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  66  75 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290251
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
951 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTHWARD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THINGS COVERED.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE REACHING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PRE-SUNRISE HOUR...REACHING
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN
PUSH FROM A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH...THAT AN AREA OF LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA) MAY SET UP WITHIN A
MOISTENED LOWER 6-7K FT LAYER. AS THE DAY WARMS INTO THE UPPER
70S...THIS SCENARIO MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED -SHRA AS THE DAY WARMS
INTO THE UPPER 70S. PRIMARILY VFR DECKS WITH PERIODIC MVFR
CEILINGS INVOF WEAK BOUNDARY. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. AT 3 PM IT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT
TO TEMPLE TO DEL RIO. A NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL SNEAK
ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY WILL BECOME HUNG UP
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DECENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A SECOND COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THROUGH SE TX ON FRIDAY. AFTER
A PLEASANT WEEKEND...A MORE RAINY PATTERN IS LOOKING TO SETUP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH ON
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A SEA BREEZE SHOULD THEN HELP THE
OTHERWISE ISOLATED COVERAGE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKED HOW THE ECMWF HANDLED
THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS POPS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORTICITY ADVECTION PATTERN AND SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL PUSH.

AFTER A PLEASANT WEEKEND...A RAINY PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE ECWMF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF EVENTS...BUT
BOTH AGREE WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SETTING UP AND THEN AT LEAST
SCATTERED COVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF THE TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED PACIFIC MOISTURE IS GOOD...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY AND AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MEANDER NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
GETTING A SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS COULD REACH
CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI NIGHT. SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY
AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED SUN-
MON NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOKING LATE SUN AFTN AND
BEYOND. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  80  57  79  54 /  20  30  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  82  60  79  56 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  68  76  65 /  10  20  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290005
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE REACHING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PRE-SUNRISE HOUR...REACHING
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN
PUSH FROM A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH...THAT AN AREA OF LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA) MAY SET UP WITHIN A
MOISTENED LOWER 6-7K FT LAYER. AS THE DAY WARMS INTO THE UPPER
70S...THIS SCENARIO MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED -SHRA AS THE DAY WARMS
INTO THE UPPER 70S. PRIMARILY VFR DECKS WITH PERIODIC MVFR
CEILINGS INVOF WEAK BOUNDARY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. AT 3 PM IT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT
TO TEMPLE TO DEL RIO. A NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL SNEAK
ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY WILL BECOME HUNG UP
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DECENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A SECOND COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THROUGH SE TX ON FRIDAY. AFTER
A PLEASANT WEEKEND...A MORE RAINY PATTERN IS LOOKING TO SETUP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH ON
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A SEA BREEZE SHOULD THEN HELP THE
OTHERWISE ISOLATED COVERAGE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKED HOW THE ECMWF HANDLED
THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS POPS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORTICITY ADVECTION PATTERN AND SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL PUSH.

AFTER A PLEASANT WEEKEND...A RAINY PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE ECWMF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF EVENTS...BUT
BOTH AGREE WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SETTING UP AND THEN AT LEAST
SCATTERED COVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF THE TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED PACIFIC MOISTURE IS GOOD...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY AND AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. 40

&&

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MEANDER NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
GETTING A SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS COULD REACH
CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI NIGHT. SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY
AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED SUN-
MON NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOKING LATE SUN AFTN AND
BEYOND. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  80  57  79  54 /  20  30  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  82  60  79  56 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  68  76  65 /  10  20  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 282043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. AT 3 PM IT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT
TO TEMPLE TO DEL RIO. A NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL SNEAK
ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY WILL BECOME HUNG UP
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DECENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A SECOND COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THROUGH SE TX ON FRIDAY. AFTER
A PLEASANT WEEKEND...A MORE RAINY PATTERN IS LOOKING TO SETUP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH ON
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A SEABREEZE SHOULD THEN HELP THE
OTHERWISE ISOLATED COVERAGE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKED HOW THE ECMWF HANDLED
THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS POPS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORTICITY ADVECTION PATTERN AND SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL PUSH.

AFTER A PLEASANT WEEKEND...A RAINY PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE ECWMF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF EVENTS...BUT
BOTH AGREE WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SETTING UP AND THEN AT LEAST
SCATTERED COVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF THE TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED PACIFIC MOISTURE IS GOOD...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY AND AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MEANDER NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
GETTING A SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS COULD REACH
CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI NIGHT. SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY
AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED SUN-
MON NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOKING LATE SUN AFTN AND
BEYOND. 47


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/EVNG. COULD SEE SOME WEAK STREAMER
SHRA ACROSS SE PARTS OF SE TX BUT OVERALL DURATION/SIGNIFICANCE
ISN`T WORTH INCLUDING IN TAFS ATTM. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING INTO SE TX OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDSHIFT PROBABLY SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LOWERING
INTO MID-HIGHER END MVFR TERRITORY LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME TEMPOS FOR NOW. IT`S BEYOND TIMELINE INCLUDED IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT 00Z TAFS MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIP SOUTH OF I-10 LATE IN THE DAY AND EVNG AS CONVERGENCE
ZONE SETS UP BETWEEN SEABREEZE & FRONT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  80  57  79  54 /  20  30  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  82  60  79  56 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  68  76  65 /  10  20  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities