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000
FXUS64 KHGX 030439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME SITES NORTH
OF HOUSTON MIGHT GO MVFR BRIEFLY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REBOUND
QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN RISES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS VERY SLIM
TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES FALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MID- LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN TO THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW AN INVERSION AROUND
850 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS.
23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  95 /  50  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  82  91 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME SITES NORTH
OF HOUSTON MIGHT GO MVFR BRIEFLY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REBOUND
QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN RISES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS VERY SLIM
TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES FALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MID- LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN TO THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW AN INVERSION AROUND
850 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS.
23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  95 /  50  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  82  91 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 030122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 022334
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022334
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 022116
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022116
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 021959
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL REMAIN AT...OR
SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WEAKENING
BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL
OCCASIONALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 021959
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL REMAIN AT...OR
SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WEAKENING
BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL
OCCASIONALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021757
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE REGIONAL AIR MASS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THE
RESIDENT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MOIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE METRO HUBS TODAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD GULF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND DURING THE EARLY AM WED HOURS WILL
PLACE MORE COASTAL TERMINALS UNDER MODERATE CHANCES FOR SPEED
CONVERGENCE SHRA OR TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS...THE THINKING IS
THAT MANY TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS...WITH THAT EVEN SHORTER-LIVED THUNDERSTORM...PASSING
WITHIN THE VICINITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.2 INCHES AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GPS MET DATA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 86 AND
88 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE MET EASILY. A WELL
DEVELOPED S/WV EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS
INCHED CLOSER TO SE TX WHICH WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTN WHILE THE
HRRR/ARW-EAST REMAIN MORE BENIGN. THE RAP WAS OVERDONE YESTERDAY
AND DID NOT INITIALIZE ALL THAT WELL SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/WRF
BLEND. CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE SO NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. DID BUMP MAX T GRIDS UP A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH TRENDS/OBS.
AS FOR TS DOLLY...THE STORM WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL A BIT
EARLIER...SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR SE TX WILL BE
INCREASING SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND A 1.0-1.5
FOOT BUMP UP IN TIDE LEVELS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  76  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 021757
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE REGIONAL AIR MASS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THE
RESIDENT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MOIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE METRO HUBS TODAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD GULF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND DURING THE EARLY AM WED HOURS WILL
PLACE MORE COASTAL TERMINALS UNDER MODERATE CHANCES FOR SPEED
CONVERGENCE SHRA OR TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS...THE THINKING IS
THAT MANY TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS...WITH THAT EVEN SHORTER-LIVED THUNDERSTORM...PASSING
WITHIN THE VICINITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.2 INCHES AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GPS MET DATA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 86 AND
88 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE MET EASILY. A WELL
DEVELOPED S/WV EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS
INCHED CLOSER TO SE TX WHICH WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTN WHILE THE
HRRR/ARW-EAST REMAIN MORE BENIGN. THE RAP WAS OVERDONE YESTERDAY
AND DID NOT INITIALIZE ALL THAT WELL SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/WRF
BLEND. CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE SO NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. DID BUMP MAX T GRIDS UP A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH TRENDS/OBS.
AS FOR TS DOLLY...THE STORM WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL A BIT
EARLIER...SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR SE TX WILL BE
INCREASING SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND A 1.0-1.5
FOOT BUMP UP IN TIDE LEVELS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  76  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.2 INCHES AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GPS MET DATA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 86 AND
88 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE MET EASILY. A WELL
DEVELOPED S/WV EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS
INCHED CLOSER TO SE TX WHICH WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTN WHILE THE
HRRR/ARW-EAST REMAIN MORE BENIGN. THE RAP WAS OVERDONE YESTERDAY
AND DID NOT INITIALIZE ALL THAT WELL SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/WRF
BLEND. CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE SO NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. DID BUMP MAX T GRIDS UP A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH TRENDS/OBS.
AS FOR TS DOLLY...THE STORM WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL A BIT
EARLIER...SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR SE TX WILL BE
INCREASING SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND A 1.0-1.5
FOOT BUMP UP IN TIDE LEVELS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 021526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.2 INCHES AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GPS MET DATA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 86 AND
88 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE MET EASILY. A WELL
DEVELOPED S/WV EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS
INCHED CLOSER TO SE TX WHICH WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTN WHILE THE
HRRR/ARW-EAST REMAIN MORE BENIGN. THE RAP WAS OVERDONE YESTERDAY
AND DID NOT INITIALIZE ALL THAT WELL SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/WRF
BLEND. CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE SO NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. DID BUMP MAX T GRIDS UP A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH TRENDS/OBS.
AS FOR TS DOLLY...THE STORM WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL A BIT
EARLIER...SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR SE TX WILL BE
INCREASING SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND A 1.0-1.5
FOOT BUMP UP IN TIDE LEVELS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 020905
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 020905
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 020442
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO THE COASTLINE AND
DISSIPATING BUT THE NEXT FEW MAY GET FURTHER INLAND. DEEPER
MOISTURE STILL OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT IT IS COMING THIS WAY.
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS ARE MINOR...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE MVFR
CIGS BY AN HOUR OR TWO BUT STILL ROUGHLY 08-11Z. SHOWERS SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND TO HOU/IAH HUBS BY 12-15Z AND THEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF THE CAP EXPECT SHRA TO
TRANSITION TO SHRA/TSRA 16-18Z. STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT 15 KNOTS OR
SO CAN`T RULE OUT A HIT AT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS BUT AT LEAST IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND AND
BY EARLY EVENING THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS AND
WITH LESS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND
MORE SUBSIDENCE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A
BIT MORE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR THE UP-
DATE AS A QUICK PEEK AT INCOMING MODELS/OTHER SHORT-RANGE PROGS
REMAIN RATHER INSISTENT ON AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE MARINE FCST...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/EXTENDED SCEC AS PER
ONGOING TRENDS. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT
TO BKN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE. 45

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 020442
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO THE COASTLINE AND
DISSIPATING BUT THE NEXT FEW MAY GET FURTHER INLAND. DEEPER
MOISTURE STILL OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT IT IS COMING THIS WAY.
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS ARE MINOR...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE MVFR
CIGS BY AN HOUR OR TWO BUT STILL ROUGHLY 08-11Z. SHOWERS SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND TO HOU/IAH HUBS BY 12-15Z AND THEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF THE CAP EXPECT SHRA TO
TRANSITION TO SHRA/TSRA 16-18Z. STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT 15 KNOTS OR
SO CAN`T RULE OUT A HIT AT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS BUT AT LEAST IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND AND
BY EARLY EVENING THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS AND
WITH LESS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND
MORE SUBSIDENCE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A
BIT MORE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR THE UP-
DATE AS A QUICK PEEK AT INCOMING MODELS/OTHER SHORT-RANGE PROGS
REMAIN RATHER INSISTENT ON AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE MARINE FCST...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/EXTENDED SCEC AS PER
ONGOING TRENDS. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT
TO BKN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE. 45

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 020314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A
BIT MORE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR THE UP-
DATE AS A QUICK PEEK AT INCOMING MODELS/OTHER SHORT-RANGE PROGS
REMAIN RATHER INSISTENT ON AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE MARINE FCST...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/EXTENDED SCEC AS PER
ONGOING TRENDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT
TO BKN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE. 45


CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 020314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A
BIT MORE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR THE UP-
DATE AS A QUICK PEEK AT INCOMING MODELS/OTHER SHORT-RANGE PROGS
REMAIN RATHER INSISTENT ON AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE MARINE FCST...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/EXTENDED SCEC AS PER
ONGOING TRENDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT
TO BKN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE. 45


CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 020058
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BUT
WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 020058
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BUT
WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 012026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 012026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 012014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE IS
PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT MIX OUT THIS
MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10 INCHES. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE OVER THE SW GULF
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC HAS JUST UPGRADED THIS SYSTEM TO TD
#5. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 012014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE IS
PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT MIX OUT THIS
MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10 INCHES. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE OVER THE SW GULF
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC HAS JUST UPGRADED THIS SYSTEM TO TD
#5. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011813
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM OVER VARIOUS METRO
SITES...MORNING SUN ENERGY WITHIN A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
TO KICK ACTIVITY OFF. MORE PRONOUNCED INFLUENCE FROM THE EASTERN
UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS. PRIMARILY VFR...A FEW HOURS OF NON-METRO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING MVFR WITH A RETURN CHANCE FOR AN HOUR (OR TWO) OF IFR
CEILINGS. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR TUESDAY WITH A HIGHER CHANCE
OF MORE AREAL EARLY DAY SHRA/EARLY AFTERNOON -TSRA COVERAGE AS A
HIGHER SLUG OF MOISTURE COMES ONSHORE NORTH OF A BAY OF CAMPECHE
TROPICAL WAVE/WEAK CIRCULATION. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.10 INCHES AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. 850MB MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE
DROPPED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL LOOKS PLENTY MOIST.
AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA TO SAN ANTONIO
WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED AROUND THE ARKLATEX. AT 250
MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE IS EDGING EVER CLOSER TO SE TX. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING. PREV FCST HAS ALL THIS COVERED
SO NO UPDATE IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE
APPROACHING GLS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH VCTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR METRO AREA TAF SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY. 38

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AND SUPPORT
STRONGER SE WINDS AT THE SFC. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.9-2
INCHES PER SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PULL TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE C PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO TUE/WED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD EMERGE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH
KEEPING THE TROPICAL WAVE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING BEFORE LANDFALL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. CANADIAN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48HRS AND
70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS AT LEAST
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE ALL
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH INTO THE MEXICO COAST. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THE TX COAST WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE/WED SO WILL
KEEP 30/40 POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH 50 POPS ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING DUE TO DAY TIME
HEATING WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP 20
POPS FOR THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER TX WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ALMOST
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DO SINCE THE PATTERN IS STILL WEAKLY AMPLIFIED AND
THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.
39

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAY NEED CAUTION FLAGS AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT BUT LIKELY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. APPROACHING SWELLS
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  94  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  91  76  92  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  88  81  89  81 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011813
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM OVER VARIOUS METRO
SITES...MORNING SUN ENERGY WITHIN A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
TO KICK ACTIVITY OFF. MORE PRONOUNCED INFLUENCE FROM THE EASTERN
UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM AS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS. PRIMARILY VFR...A FEW HOURS OF NON-METRO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING MVFR WITH A RETURN CHANCE FOR AN HOUR (OR TWO) OF IFR
CEILINGS. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR TUESDAY WITH A HIGHER CHANCE
OF MORE AREAL EARLY DAY SHRA/EARLY AFTERNOON -TSRA COVERAGE AS A
HIGHER SLUG OF MOISTURE COMES ONSHORE NORTH OF A BAY OF CAMPECHE
TROPICAL WAVE/WEAK CIRCULATION. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.10 INCHES AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. 850MB MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE
DROPPED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL LOOKS PLENTY MOIST.
AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA TO SAN ANTONIO
WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED AROUND THE ARKLATEX. AT 250
MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE IS EDGING EVER CLOSER TO SE TX. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING. PREV FCST HAS ALL THIS COVERED
SO NO UPDATE IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE
APPROACHING GLS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH VCTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR METRO AREA TAF SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY. 38

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AND SUPPORT
STRONGER SE WINDS AT THE SFC. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.9-2
INCHES PER SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PULL TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE C PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO TUE/WED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD EMERGE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH
KEEPING THE TROPICAL WAVE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING BEFORE LANDFALL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. CANADIAN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48HRS AND
70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS AT LEAST
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE ALL
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH INTO THE MEXICO COAST. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THE TX COAST WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE/WED SO WILL
KEEP 30/40 POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH 50 POPS ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING DUE TO DAY TIME
HEATING WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP 20
POPS FOR THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER TX WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ALMOST
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DO SINCE THE PATTERN IS STILL WEAKLY AMPLIFIED AND
THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.
39

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAY NEED CAUTION FLAGS AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT BUT LIKELY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. APPROACHING SWELLS
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  94  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  91  76  92  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  88  81  89  81 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 011525
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.10 INCHES AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. 850MB MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE
DROPPED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL LOOKS PLENTY MOIST.
AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA TO SAN ANTONIO
WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED AROUND THE ARKLATEX. AT 250
MB...UPPE LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE IS EDGING EVER CLOSER TO SE TX. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING. PREV FCST HAS ALL
THIS COVERED SO NO UPDATE IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE
APPROACHING GLS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH VCTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR METRO AREA TAF SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AND SUPPORT
STRONGER SE WINDS AT THE SFC. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.9-2
INCHES PER SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PULL TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE C PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO TUE/WED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD EMERGE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH
KEEPING THE TROPICAL WAVE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING BEFORE LANDFALL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. CANADIAN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48HRS AND
70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS AT LEAST
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE ALL
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH INTO THE MEXICO COAST. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THE TX COAST WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE/WED SO WILL
KEEP 30/40 POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH 50 POPS ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING DUE TO DAY TIME
HEATING WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP 20
POPS FOR THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER TX WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ALMOST
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DO SINCE THE PATTERN IS STILL WEAKLY AMPLIFIED AND
THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAY NEED CAUTION FLAGS AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT BUT LIKELY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. APPROACHING SWELLS
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  77  94  76  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  91  76  92 /  20  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  88  81  89 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011525
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.10 INCHES AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. 850MB MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE
DROPPED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL LOOKS PLENTY MOIST.
AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA TO SAN ANTONIO
WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED AROUND THE ARKLATEX. AT 250
MB...UPPE LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE IS EDGING EVER CLOSER TO SE TX. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING. PREV FCST HAS ALL
THIS COVERED SO NO UPDATE IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE
APPROACHING GLS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH VCTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR METRO AREA TAF SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AND SUPPORT
STRONGER SE WINDS AT THE SFC. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.9-2
INCHES PER SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PULL TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE C PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO TUE/WED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD EMERGE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH
KEEPING THE TROPICAL WAVE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING BEFORE LANDFALL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. CANADIAN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48HRS AND
70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS AT LEAST
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE ALL
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH INTO THE MEXICO COAST. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THE TX COAST WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE/WED SO WILL
KEEP 30/40 POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH 50 POPS ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING DUE TO DAY TIME
HEATING WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP 20
POPS FOR THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER TX WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ALMOST
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DO SINCE THE PATTERN IS STILL WEAKLY AMPLIFIED AND
THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAY NEED CAUTION FLAGS AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT BUT LIKELY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. APPROACHING SWELLS
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  77  94  76  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  91  76  92 /  20  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  88  81  89 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 011128
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE
APPROACHING GLS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH VCTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR METRO AREA TAF SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AND SUPPORT
STRONGER SE WINDS AT THE SFC. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.9-2
INCHES PER SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PULL TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE C PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO TUE/WED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD EMERGE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH
KEEPING THE TROPICAL WAVE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING BEFORE LANDFALL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. CANADIAN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48HRS AND
70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS AT LEAST
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE ALL
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH INTO THE MEXICO COAST. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THE TX COAST WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE/WED SO WILL
KEEP 30/40 POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH 50 POPS ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING DUE TO DAY TIME
HEATING WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP 20
POPS FOR THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER TX WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ALMOST
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DO SINCE THE PATTERN IS STILL WEAKLY AMPLIFIED AND
THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAY NEED CAUTION FLAGS AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT BUT LIKELY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. APPROACHING SWELLS
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  77  94  76  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  91  76  92 /  20  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  88  81  89 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011128
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE
APPROACHING GLS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH VCTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR METRO AREA TAF SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AND SUPPORT
STRONGER SE WINDS AT THE SFC. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.9-2
INCHES PER SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PULL TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE C PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO TUE/WED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD EMERGE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH
KEEPING THE TROPICAL WAVE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING BEFORE LANDFALL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. CANADIAN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48HRS AND
70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS AT LEAST
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE ALL
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH INTO THE MEXICO COAST. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THE TX COAST WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE/WED SO WILL
KEEP 30/40 POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH 50 POPS ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING DUE TO DAY TIME
HEATING WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP 20
POPS FOR THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER TX WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ALMOST
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DO SINCE THE PATTERN IS STILL WEAKLY AMPLIFIED AND
THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAY NEED CAUTION FLAGS AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT BUT LIKELY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. APPROACHING SWELLS
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  77  94  76  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  91  76  92 /  20  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  88  81  89 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 010932
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AND SUPPORT
STRONGER SE WINDS AT THE SFC. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.9-2
INCHES PER SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PULL TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE C PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO TUE/WED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD EMERGE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH
KEEPING THE TROPICAL WAVE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING BEFORE LANDFALL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. CANADIAN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48HRS AND
70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS AT LEAST
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE ALL
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH INTO THE MEXICO COAST. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THE TX COAST WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE/WED SO WILL
KEEP 30/40 POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH 50 POPS ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING DUE TO DAY TIME
HEATING WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP 20
POPS FOR THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER TX WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ALMOST
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DO SINCE THE PATTERN IS STILL WEAKLY AMPLIFIED AND
THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAY NEED CAUTION FLAGS AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT BUT LIKELY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. APPROACHING SWELLS
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  77  94  76  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  91  76  92 /  20  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  88  81  89 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010932
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AND SUPPORT
STRONGER SE WINDS AT THE SFC. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.9-2
INCHES PER SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PULL TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE C PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO TUE/WED.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD EMERGE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH
KEEPING THE TROPICAL WAVE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING BEFORE LANDFALL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. CANADIAN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48HRS AND
70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS AT LEAST
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE ALL
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH INTO THE MEXICO COAST. GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON THE TX COAST WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUE/WED SO WILL
KEEP 30/40 POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH 50 POPS ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING DUE TO DAY TIME
HEATING WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP 20
POPS FOR THE OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER TX WITH WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ALMOST
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DO SINCE THE PATTERN IS STILL WEAKLY AMPLIFIED AND
THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAY NEED CAUTION FLAGS AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT BUT LIKELY BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. APPROACHING SWELLS
WILL BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  77  94  76  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  91  76  92 /  20  20  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  88  81  89 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 010437
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...
PROFILES DRYING OUT AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE NOW.
SKIES CLEARING WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION
TOWARD MORNING THOUGH IT IS STILL PRETTY WARM. FOR NOW WILL
EITHER MENTION MIFG OR TEMPO 4-5SM VISBY BR. EXPECT THAT
CLL/UTS WILL DEVELOP A BKN MVFR CIG AFTER 09Z AND BEFORE
12Z THAT SHOULD LINGER FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. MODELS
TRENDING DRIER AS FAR AS PRECIP FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE
KEPT WITH THE VCSH AND PROB30 FOR THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME
FOR THE MOST PART INLAND AND 11-18Z COAST. MOISTURE INCREASE
QUICKLY TOMORROW NIGHT AND EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE
INCREASING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE COAST BUT THAT
IS BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF. LL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO IAH AFTER 02-10Z.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST...MAINLY TO ADD ISO SHRA
TO THE SWRN COASTAL COUNTIES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE/ONGOING TRENDS
INDICATING THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE/INFLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO HAVE THE
RIGHT STUFF. 41



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  78  91  77 /  10  30  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  83  88  81 /  20  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 010437
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...
PROFILES DRYING OUT AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE NOW.
SKIES CLEARING WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION
TOWARD MORNING THOUGH IT IS STILL PRETTY WARM. FOR NOW WILL
EITHER MENTION MIFG OR TEMPO 4-5SM VISBY BR. EXPECT THAT
CLL/UTS WILL DEVELOP A BKN MVFR CIG AFTER 09Z AND BEFORE
12Z THAT SHOULD LINGER FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. MODELS
TRENDING DRIER AS FAR AS PRECIP FOR LABOR DAY AND HAVE
KEPT WITH THE VCSH AND PROB30 FOR THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME
FOR THE MOST PART INLAND AND 11-18Z COAST. MOISTURE INCREASE
QUICKLY TOMORROW NIGHT AND EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE
INCREASING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE COAST BUT THAT
IS BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF. LL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO IAH AFTER 02-10Z.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST...MAINLY TO ADD ISO SHRA
TO THE SWRN COASTAL COUNTIES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE/ONGOING TRENDS
INDICATING THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE/INFLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO HAVE THE
RIGHT STUFF. 41



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  78  91  77 /  10  30  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  83  88  81 /  20  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST...MAINLY TO ADD ISO SHRA
TO THE SWRN COASTAL COUNTIES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE/ONGOING TRENDS
INDICATING THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE/INFLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO HAVE THE
RIGHT STUFF. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE THE STORMS INLAND HAVE ENDED BUT
CI REMAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON (OUTFLOW) WITH A WEAK MESO HIGH CENTERED EAST OF IAH AND
COASTAL TROUGHING FROM GLS-PSX. WINDS INLAND MORE ENE-ESE FOR IAH
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SE WINDS AT CLL-UTS. SMALL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES OVER SETX
CLEARING AS CI DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND WITH THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY-FOR NOW WILL CARRY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIG/VIS TEMPO`D 09-13Z FOR MOST OF THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS AND CAN`T RULE IT OUT FOR IAH/HOU TERMINALS SO WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SKY CONDITIONS AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
TOMORROW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND SHALLOWER FOR THAT MATTER
EXPECTING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE 15-21Z WINDOW INLAND/10-16Z WINDOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  78  91  77 /  10  30  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  83  88  81 /  20  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST...MAINLY TO ADD ISO SHRA
TO THE SWRN COASTAL COUNTIES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE/ONGOING TRENDS
INDICATING THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE/INFLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO HAVE THE
RIGHT STUFF. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE THE STORMS INLAND HAVE ENDED BUT
CI REMAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON (OUTFLOW) WITH A WEAK MESO HIGH CENTERED EAST OF IAH AND
COASTAL TROUGHING FROM GLS-PSX. WINDS INLAND MORE ENE-ESE FOR IAH
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SE WINDS AT CLL-UTS. SMALL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES OVER SETX
CLEARING AS CI DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND WITH THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY-FOR NOW WILL CARRY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIG/VIS TEMPO`D 09-13Z FOR MOST OF THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS AND CAN`T RULE IT OUT FOR IAH/HOU TERMINALS SO WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SKY CONDITIONS AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
TOMORROW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND SHALLOWER FOR THAT MATTER
EXPECTING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE 15-21Z WINDOW INLAND/10-16Z WINDOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  78  91  77 /  10  30  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  83  88  81 /  20  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 010029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
729 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE THE STORMS INLAND HAVE ENDED BUT
CI REMAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON (OUTFLOW) WITH A WEAK MESO HIGH CENTERED EAST OF IAH AND
COASTAL TROUGHING FROM GLS-PSX. WINDS INLAND MORE ENE-ESE FOR IAH
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SE WINDS AT CLL-UTS. SMALL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES OVER SETX
CLEARING AS CI DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND WITH THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
TONIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKELY-FOR NOW WILL CARRY MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIG/VIS TEMPO`D 09-13Z FOR MOST OF THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS AND CAN`T RULE IT OUT FOR IAH/HOU TERMINALS SO WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SKY CONDITIONS AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
TOMORROW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND SHALLOWER FOR THAT MATTER
EXPECTING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE 15-21Z WINDOW INLAND/10-16Z WINDOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END AND RAIN FREE EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
TX. COULD GET SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. PW VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ON MONDAY WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 2.00 TO 2.10 INCHES BY AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES SO FEEL HEATING WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHRA/TSRA ON MON AFTN. ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
MEXICAN COAST ON TUESDAY. THE WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.20 INCHES. RELATIVELY
LOW HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. FCST
SOUNDINGS ON WED ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUNDING
PROFILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAKNESS ALOFT SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE INTO TEXAS
ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT MORE BENIGN. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHICH HELPS PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE TX AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ON SUN/MON. 43

MARINE...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PASSING STORMS AS THE RESIDENT UNSETTLED AIR
MASS WILL UNDERGO LITTLE NEAR TERM CHANGE. AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE WESTERN
GULF PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STRENGTHENED ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL PULL IN
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SWELL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SCEC CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN JUST A TOUCH UNDER THIS CRITERIA. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  78  91  77 /  10  30  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  83  88  81 /  10  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END AND RAIN FREE EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
TX. COULD GET SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. PW VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ON MONDAY WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 2.00 TO 2.10 INCHES BY AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES SO FEEL HEATING WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHRA/TSRA ON MON AFTN. ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
MEXICAN COAST ON TUESDAY. THE WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.20 INCHES. RELATIVELY
LOW HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. FCST
SOUNDINGS ON WED ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUNDING
PROFILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAKNESS ALOFT SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE INTO TEXAS
ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT MORE BENIGN. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHICH HELPS PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE TX AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ON SUN/MON. 43

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PASSING STORMS AS THE RESIDENT UNSETTLED AIR
MASS WILL UNDERGO LITTLE NEAR TERM CHANGE. AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE WESTERN
GULF PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STRENGTHENED ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL PULL IN
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SWELL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SCEC CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN JUST A TOUCH UNDER THIS CRITERIA. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  78  91  77 /  10  30  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  83  88  81 /  10  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END AND RAIN FREE EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
TX. COULD GET SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. PW VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ON MONDAY WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 2.00 TO 2.10 INCHES BY AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES SO FEEL HEATING WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHRA/TSRA ON MON AFTN. ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
MEXICAN COAST ON TUESDAY. THE WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.20 INCHES. RELATIVELY
LOW HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. FCST
SOUNDINGS ON WED ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUNDING
PROFILE. THERE IS STILL A WEAKNESS ALOFT SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE INTO TEXAS
ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT MORE BENIGN. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHICH HELPS PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE TX AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ON SUN/MON. 43

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PASSING STORMS AS THE RESIDENT UNSETTLED AIR
MASS WILL UNDERGO LITTLE NEAR TERM CHANGE. AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE WESTERN
GULF PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STRENGTHENED ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL PULL IN
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SWELL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SCEC CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN JUST A TOUCH UNDER THIS CRITERIA. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  93  75 /  10  20  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  78  91  77 /  10  30  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  83  88  81 /  10  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 311811
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
111 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD LIGHT RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
MATAGORDA BAY REGION COUNTIES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN GALVESTON
BAY AND INTO THE PINEY WOODS...MORE DISCRETE CELLS PASSING ACROSS
KUTS AND KCLL THIS HOUR. RAIN WILL BE ENDING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS
LULL WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE RETURN NEAR-
COASTAL/GULF PRECIPITATION RE-DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND PAST SUNRISE.
IF NOT WITHIN RAINS/STORM...VFR CEILINGS/VSBY. PERIODS OF OVERNIGHT
MVFR/IFR DECKS...OR VSBY-REDUCING HZ/FOG...OVER MORE RURAL AREAS
DUE TO A WEAK WIND AND WET GROUND. AREAL SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT THE FORECAST IS FOR RETURN
MORE DISCRETE CELLS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY...OR AS SOUTHERN COUNTY CONVECTION ADVANCES INTO A MID-
UPPER 80F WARMED INTERIOR AIR MASS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 9 AM...A WEAK TROUGH OR PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
LEAGUE CITY TOM PALACIOS. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AT 850 MB WITH DEW
PTS AT 16-17 C. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT
WHARTON TO MCALLEN WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ABOUT ST LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO AUSTIN. AT 250
MB...A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE OK INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.3
INCHES...NO CAPPING AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN LOWER 80S. RADAR IS
SHOWING A SWATH OF RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 59.
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES WITH A BIT MORE ON THE WAY THIS MORNING. MODELS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL SO AM EXPECTING THE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAINFALL BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS AFTN. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT
MAY TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
BAND OF SHRA WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSRA EMBEDDED CONTINUES TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE US 59 CORRIDOR. HI RES MODELS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND FILL IN FURTHER EAST. BEST COVERAGE AND TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. 38

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FORMED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVED INTO E TX AND SW LA. LAKE CHARLES ENDED
UP WITH 7.87 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TODAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER MUCH
OF SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
BUT STILL COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND GOES
SOUNDER DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TX COAST. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS WRF-
ARW/RAP/HRRR DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE
IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MATAGORDA BAY AND
OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING THE TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
HI RES MODELS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SWATH
OF PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS. DECIDED TO
KEEP MENTION OF 60 POPS. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. ACCUMULATED
PRECIP TOTALS FROM 06Z HRRR SHOW SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS DO INDICATE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS IN NAM/GFS KEEP NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIP
WATER OVER THE TX COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NHC GIVES THIS WAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS BEST CHANCE TO DO SO PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL IT EMERGES IN THE GULF.
EVEN THEN ONLY THE NAM REALLY DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN
WAY MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. OVERALL IMPACT TO TX WILL BE TO
KEEP A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HEATING DRIVING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COVERAGE IN CONVECTION WILL BE
THE REAL ISSUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ESTABLISH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IS ALSO A QUESTION SO DIFFICULT TO GAGE HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OCCURRING DUE TO THE RIDGE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUE/WED AS THIS
IS WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH 20 POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL THE MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. TEMPS WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. AS IT
STANDS...WITH 100F NOT EXPECTED FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KCLL OR
KIAH TODAY...THE STREAK OF NOT REACHING 100F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOPEFULLY IT STAYS THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. 39

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  82  89  81 /  10  30  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 311811
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
111 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD LIGHT RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
MATAGORDA BAY REGION COUNTIES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN GALVESTON
BAY AND INTO THE PINEY WOODS...MORE DISCRETE CELLS PASSING ACROSS
KUTS AND KCLL THIS HOUR. RAIN WILL BE ENDING THROUGH THE DAY...THIS
LULL WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE RETURN NEAR-
COASTAL/GULF PRECIPITATION RE-DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND PAST SUNRISE.
IF NOT WITHIN RAINS/STORM...VFR CEILINGS/VSBY. PERIODS OF OVERNIGHT
MVFR/IFR DECKS...OR VSBY-REDUCING HZ/FOG...OVER MORE RURAL AREAS
DUE TO A WEAK WIND AND WET GROUND. AREAL SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT THE FORECAST IS FOR RETURN
MORE DISCRETE CELLS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY...OR AS SOUTHERN COUNTY CONVECTION ADVANCES INTO A MID-
UPPER 80F WARMED INTERIOR AIR MASS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 9 AM...A WEAK TROUGH OR PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
LEAGUE CITY TOM PALACIOS. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AT 850 MB WITH DEW
PTS AT 16-17 C. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT
WHARTON TO MCALLEN WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ABOUT ST LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO AUSTIN. AT 250
MB...A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE OK INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.3
INCHES...NO CAPPING AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN LOWER 80S. RADAR IS
SHOWING A SWATH OF RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 59.
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES WITH A BIT MORE ON THE WAY THIS MORNING. MODELS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL SO AM EXPECTING THE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAINFALL BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS AFTN. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT
MAY TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
BAND OF SHRA WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSRA EMBEDDED CONTINUES TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE US 59 CORRIDOR. HI RES MODELS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND FILL IN FURTHER EAST. BEST COVERAGE AND TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. 38

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FORMED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVED INTO E TX AND SW LA. LAKE CHARLES ENDED
UP WITH 7.87 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TODAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER MUCH
OF SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
BUT STILL COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND GOES
SOUNDER DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TX COAST. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS WRF-
ARW/RAP/HRRR DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE
IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MATAGORDA BAY AND
OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING THE TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
HI RES MODELS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SWATH
OF PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS. DECIDED TO
KEEP MENTION OF 60 POPS. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. ACCUMULATED
PRECIP TOTALS FROM 06Z HRRR SHOW SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS DO INDICATE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS IN NAM/GFS KEEP NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIP
WATER OVER THE TX COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NHC GIVES THIS WAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS BEST CHANCE TO DO SO PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL IT EMERGES IN THE GULF.
EVEN THEN ONLY THE NAM REALLY DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN
WAY MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. OVERALL IMPACT TO TX WILL BE TO
KEEP A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HEATING DRIVING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COVERAGE IN CONVECTION WILL BE
THE REAL ISSUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ESTABLISH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IS ALSO A QUESTION SO DIFFICULT TO GAGE HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OCCURRING DUE TO THE RIDGE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUE/WED AS THIS
IS WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH 20 POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL THE MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. TEMPS WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. AS IT
STANDS...WITH 100F NOT EXPECTED FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KCLL OR
KIAH TODAY...THE STREAK OF NOT REACHING 100F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOPEFULLY IT STAYS THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. 39

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  82  89  81 /  10  30  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 311514
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 AM...A WEAK TROUGH OR PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
LEAGUE CITY TOM PALACIOS. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AT 850 MB WITH DEW
PTS AT 16-17 C. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT
WHARTON TO MCALLEN WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ABOUT ST LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO AUSTIN. AT 250
MB...A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE OK INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.3
INCHES...NO CAPPING AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN LOWER 80S. RADAR IS
SHOWING A SWATH OF RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 59.
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES WITH A BIT MORE ON THE WAY THIS MORNING. MODELS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL SO AM EXPECTING THE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAINFALL BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS AFTN. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT
MAY TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
BAND OF SHRA WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSRA EMBEDDED CONTINUES TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE US 59 CORRIDOR. HI RES MODELS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND FILL IN FURTHER EAST. BEST COVERAGE AND TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FORMED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVED INTO E TX AND SW LA. LAKE CHARLES ENDED
UP WITH 7.87 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TODAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER MUCH
OF SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
BUT STILL COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND GOES
SOUNDER DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TX COAST. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS WRF-
ARW/RAP/HRRR DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE
IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MATAGORDA BAY AND
OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING THE TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
HI RES MODELS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SWATH
OF PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS. DECIDED TO
KEEP MENTION OF 60 POPS. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. ACCUMULATED
PRECIP TOTALS FROM 06Z HRRR SHOW SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS DO INDICATE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS IN NAM/GFS KEEP NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIP
WATER OVER THE TX COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NHC GIVES THIS WAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS BEST CHANCE TO DO SO PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL IT EMERGES IN THE GULF.
EVEN THEN ONLY THE NAM REALLY DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN
WAY MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. OVERALL IMPACT TO TX WILL BE TO
KEEP A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HEATING DRIVING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COVERAGE IN CONVECTION WILL BE
THE REAL ISSUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ESTABLISH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IS ALSO A QUESTION SO DIFFICULT TO GAGE HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OCCURRING DUE TO THE RIDGE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUE/WED AS THIS
IS WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH 20 POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL THE MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. TEMPS WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. AS IT
STANDS...WITH 100F NOT EXPECTED FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KCLL OR
KIAH TODAY...THE STREAK OF NOT REACHING 100F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOPEFULLY IT STAYS THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

39

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  93  77  93 /  60  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  89  82  89 /  60  10  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 311514
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 AM...A WEAK TROUGH OR PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
LEAGUE CITY TOM PALACIOS. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AT 850 MB WITH DEW
PTS AT 16-17 C. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT
WHARTON TO MCALLEN WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ABOUT ST LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO AUSTIN. AT 250
MB...A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE OK INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
MORNING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.3
INCHES...NO CAPPING AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN LOWER 80S. RADAR IS
SHOWING A SWATH OF RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 59.
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES WITH A BIT MORE ON THE WAY THIS MORNING. MODELS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL SO AM EXPECTING THE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAINFALL BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS AFTN. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT
MAY TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
BAND OF SHRA WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSRA EMBEDDED CONTINUES TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE US 59 CORRIDOR. HI RES MODELS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND FILL IN FURTHER EAST. BEST COVERAGE AND TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FORMED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVED INTO E TX AND SW LA. LAKE CHARLES ENDED
UP WITH 7.87 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TODAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER MUCH
OF SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
BUT STILL COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND GOES
SOUNDER DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TX COAST. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS WRF-
ARW/RAP/HRRR DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE
IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MATAGORDA BAY AND
OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING THE TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
HI RES MODELS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SWATH
OF PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS. DECIDED TO
KEEP MENTION OF 60 POPS. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. ACCUMULATED
PRECIP TOTALS FROM 06Z HRRR SHOW SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS DO INDICATE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS IN NAM/GFS KEEP NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIP
WATER OVER THE TX COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NHC GIVES THIS WAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS BEST CHANCE TO DO SO PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL IT EMERGES IN THE GULF.
EVEN THEN ONLY THE NAM REALLY DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN
WAY MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. OVERALL IMPACT TO TX WILL BE TO
KEEP A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HEATING DRIVING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COVERAGE IN CONVECTION WILL BE
THE REAL ISSUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ESTABLISH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IS ALSO A QUESTION SO DIFFICULT TO GAGE HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OCCURRING DUE TO THE RIDGE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUE/WED AS THIS
IS WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH 20 POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL THE MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. TEMPS WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. AS IT
STANDS...WITH 100F NOT EXPECTED FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KCLL OR
KIAH TODAY...THE STREAK OF NOT REACHING 100F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOPEFULLY IT STAYS THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

39

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  93  77  93 /  60  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  89  82  89 /  60  10  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 311144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF SHRA WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSRA EMBEDDED CONTINUES TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE US 59 CORRIDOR. HI RES MODELS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND FILL IN FURTHER EAST. BEST COVERAGE AND TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FORMED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVED INTO E TX AND SW LA. LAKE CHARLES ENDED
UP WITH 7.87 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TODAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER MUCH
OF SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
BUT STILL COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND GOES
SOUNDER DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TX COAST. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS WRF-
ARW/RAP/HRRR DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE
IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MATAGORDA BAY AND
OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING THE TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
HI RES MODELS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SWATH
OF PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS. DECIDED TO
KEEP MENTION OF 60 POPS. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. ACCUMULATED
PRECIP TOTALS FROM 06Z HRRR SHOW SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS DO INDICATE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS IN NAM/GFS KEEP NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIP
WATER OVER THE TX COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NHC GIVES THIS WAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS BEST CHANCE TO DO SO PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL IT EMERGES IN THE GULF.
EVEN THEN ONLY THE NAM REALLY DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN
WAY MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. OVERALL IMPACT TO TX WILL BE TO
KEEP A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HEATING DRIVING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COVERAGE IN CONVECTION WILL BE
THE REAL ISSUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ESTABLISH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IS ALSO A QUESTION SO DIFFICULT TO GAGE HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OCCURRING DUE TO THE RIDGE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUE/WED AS THIS
IS WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH 20 POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL THE MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. TEMPS WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. AS IT
STANDS...WITH 100F NOT EXPECTED FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KCLL OR
KIAH TODAY...THE STREAK OF NOT REACHING 100F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOPEFULLY IT STAYS THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

39

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  93  77  93 /  40  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  89  82  89 /  60  10  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 311144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF SHRA WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSRA EMBEDDED CONTINUES TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE US 59 CORRIDOR. HI RES MODELS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND FILL IN FURTHER EAST. BEST COVERAGE AND TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FORMED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVED INTO E TX AND SW LA. LAKE CHARLES ENDED
UP WITH 7.87 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TODAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER MUCH
OF SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
BUT STILL COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND GOES
SOUNDER DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TX COAST. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS WRF-
ARW/RAP/HRRR DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE
IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MATAGORDA BAY AND
OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING THE TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
HI RES MODELS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SWATH
OF PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS. DECIDED TO
KEEP MENTION OF 60 POPS. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. ACCUMULATED
PRECIP TOTALS FROM 06Z HRRR SHOW SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS DO INDICATE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS IN NAM/GFS KEEP NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIP
WATER OVER THE TX COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NHC GIVES THIS WAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS BEST CHANCE TO DO SO PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL IT EMERGES IN THE GULF.
EVEN THEN ONLY THE NAM REALLY DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN
WAY MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. OVERALL IMPACT TO TX WILL BE TO
KEEP A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HEATING DRIVING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COVERAGE IN CONVECTION WILL BE
THE REAL ISSUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ESTABLISH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IS ALSO A QUESTION SO DIFFICULT TO GAGE HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OCCURRING DUE TO THE RIDGE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUE/WED AS THIS
IS WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH 20 POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL THE MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. TEMPS WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. AS IT
STANDS...WITH 100F NOT EXPECTED FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KCLL OR
KIAH TODAY...THE STREAK OF NOT REACHING 100F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOPEFULLY IT STAYS THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

39

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  93  77  93 /  40  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  89  82  89 /  60  10  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310939
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FORMED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVED INTO E TX AND SW LA. LAKE CHARLES ENDED
UP WITH 7.87 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TODAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER MUCH
OF SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
BUT STILL COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND GOES
SOUNDER DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TX COAST. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS WRF-
ARW/RAP/HRRR DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE
IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MATAGORDA BAY AND
OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING THE TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
HI RES MODELS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SWATH
OF PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS. DECIDED TO
KEEP MENTION OF 60 POPS. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. ACCUMULATED
PRECIP TOTALS FROM 06Z HRRR SHOW SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS DO INDICATE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS IN NAM/GFS KEEP NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIP
WATER OVER THE TX COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NHC GIVES THIS WAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS BEST CHANCE TO DO SO PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL IT EMERGES IN THE GULF.
EVEN THEN ONLY THE NAM REALLY DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN
WAY MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. OVERALL IMPACT TO TX WILL BE TO
KEEP A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HEATING DRIVING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COVERAGE IN CONVECTION WILL BE
THE REAL ISSUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ESTABLISH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IS ALSO A QUESTION SO DIFFICULT TO GAGE HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OCCURRING DUE TO THE RIDGE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUE/WED AS THIS
IS WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH 20 POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL THE MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. TEMPS WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. AS IT
STANDS...WITH 100F NOT EXPECTED FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KCLL OR
KIAH TODAY...THE STREAK OF NOT REACHING 100F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOPEFULLY IT STAYS THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

39

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  93  77  93 /  40  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  89  82  89 /  60  10  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 310939
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FORMED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVED INTO E TX AND SW LA. LAKE CHARLES ENDED
UP WITH 7.87 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TODAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER MUCH
OF SE TX AND UPPER TX COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
BUT STILL COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AND GOES
SOUNDER DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TX COAST. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS WRF-
ARW/RAP/HRRR DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE
IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MATAGORDA BAY AND
OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING THE TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE
HI RES MODELS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SWATH
OF PRECIP EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS. DECIDED TO
KEEP MENTION OF 60 POPS. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. ACCUMULATED
PRECIP TOTALS FROM 06Z HRRR SHOW SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS DO INDICATE RAINFALL COMING TO AN END LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS IN NAM/GFS KEEP NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIP
WATER OVER THE TX COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NHC GIVES THIS WAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 5 DAYS. ITS BEST CHANCE TO DO SO PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE UNTIL IT EMERGES IN THE GULF.
EVEN THEN ONLY THE NAM REALLY DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN
WAY MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. OVERALL IMPACT TO TX WILL BE TO
KEEP A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HEATING DRIVING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COVERAGE IN CONVECTION WILL BE
THE REAL ISSUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ESTABLISH A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IS ALSO A QUESTION SO DIFFICULT TO GAGE HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE OCCURRING DUE TO THE RIDGE. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUE/WED AS THIS
IS WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH 20 POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL THE MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
WILL BE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. TEMPS WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. AS IT
STANDS...WITH 100F NOT EXPECTED FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KCLL OR
KIAH TODAY...THE STREAK OF NOT REACHING 100F FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOPEFULLY IT STAYS THAT WAY
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

39

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  77  93  77  93 /  40  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  89  82  89 /  60  10  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




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