000
FXUS64 KHGX 231719
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1219 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT ABOVE MVFR TO VFR IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM AND GFS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FIELDS HINTING AT FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO LBX AND CXO.
WINDS WILL THEN BACK MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY JUST FOR
INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TX FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HOURS. ISOLATED
PCPN YESTERDAY EVE ALONG WITH THE BREAKABLE CAPS (DEPICTED FROM
LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS) AND SHORT TERM MODELS ALL PLAYING INTO THE
CHANGES FOR THE AFTN GRIDS. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 90 70 90 69 / 20 20 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 71 89 71 / 20 20 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 73 84 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...23
000
FXUS64 KHGX 231557
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY JUST FOR
INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TX FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HOURS. ISOLATED
PCPN YESTERDAY EVE ALONG WITH THE BREAKABLE CAPS (DEPICTED FROM
LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS) AND SHORT TERM MODELS ALL PLAYING INTO THE
CHANGES FOR THE AFTN GRIDS. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 90 70 90 / 20 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 71 89 / 20 20 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 74 83 73 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 231117
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SEEING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS...AS WELL AS PATCHY LIFR
FOG THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-MORNING WITH
SOME MIXING. SE WINDS 8-12 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN THU NIGHT. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND ELEVATE WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 90 70 90 / 10 10 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 71 89 / 10 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 74 83 73 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...33
000
FXUS64 KHGX 230840
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND ELEVATE WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 90 70 90 / 10 10 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 71 89 / 10 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 74 83 73 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 230457
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME...EARLY MORNING IFR CEILINGS WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR VISBIES (BR). PROG SOUNDINGS MIX CEILINGS OUT AND
UP BY 16Z...POSSIBLY EVEN SKC (OR FEW/SCT HIGH DECK) BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED GENERALLY BETWEEN
COLUMBUS AND HOUSTON HAVE DISSIPATED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE OUT. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F...THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING UPON MESOSCALE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
HOUSTON...MAY REACH HOBBY`S VICINITY IN NEXT HOUR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE IN KIAH`S AIR SPACE WITHIN LAST HOUR. ACTIVITY WILL
BE QUICKLY WANING ONCE SUN SETS...NO MORE SFC HEATING TO DRIVE
THIS LOCALIZED CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT WIND FIELD WILL SLACKEN...AND
WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...IFR DECKS/MVFR BR IS EXPECTED
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. DECKS
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...
FEW TO SKC UNDER AN EARLY EASTERLY/VRB VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12
KT PM WIND. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MARCHING INLAND MAY HAVE NEAR-COASTAL
TERMINAL WINDS MORE EASTERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...NEAR 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES UNDER SKC BY 19-20Z (ONCE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH
OF HUB). 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT THIS AFTN. NOT A LOT (IF ANY) DEVELOPMENT NOTED
SO FAR AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CAP IS HOLDING.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS NEXT FCST PACKAGE AS SE TX SEEMS TO
BE SETTLING INTO OUR MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE PERS-
ISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILST
THE TRACKS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD EFFECT THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF OUR CWFA FRI/SAT. THUS NO REAL ARGUMENTS WITH THE LOW
POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY (POPS NOT RH) FCST WITH TEMPS AT (AROUND) SEASONAL NORMS THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 71 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 72 90 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 81 74 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KHGX 230259
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
959 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED GENERALLY BETWEEN
COLUMBUS AND HOUSTON HAVE DISSIPATED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE OUT. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F...THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING UPON MESOSCALE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
HOUSTON...MAY REACH HOBBY`S VICINITY IN NEXT HOUR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE IN KIAH`S AIR SPACE WITHIN LAST HOUR. ACTIVITY WILL
BE QUICKLY WANING ONCE SUN SETS...NO MORE SFC HEATING TO DRIVE
THIS LOCALIZED CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT WIND FIELD WILL SLACKEN...AND
WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...IFR DECKS/MVFR BR IS EXPECTED
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. DECKS
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...
FEW TO SKC UNDER AN EARLY EASTERLY/VRB VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12
KT PM WIND. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MARCHING INLAND MAY HAVE NEAR-COASTAL
TERMINAL WINDS MORE EASTERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...NEAR 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES UNDER SKC BY 19-20Z (ONCE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH
OF HUB). 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT THIS AFTN. NOT A LOT (IF ANY) DEVELOPMENT NOTED
SO FAR AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CAP IS HOLDING.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS NEXT FCST PACKAGE AS SE TX SEEMS TO
BE SETTLING INTO OUR MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE PERS-
ISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILST
THE TRACKS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD EFFECT THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF OUR CWFA FRI/SAT. THUS NO REAL ARGUMENTS WITH THE LOW
POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY (POPS NOT RH) FCST WITH TEMPS AT (AROUND) SEASONAL NORMS THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 71 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 72 90 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 81 74 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KHGX 230006
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F...THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING UPON MESOSCALE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
HOUSTON...MAY REACH HOBBY`S VICINITY IN NEXT HOUR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE IN KIAH`S AIR SPACE WITHIN LAST HOUR. ACTIVITY WILL
BE QUICKLY WANING ONCE SUN SETS...NO MORE SFC HEATING TO DRIVE
THIS LOCALIZED CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT WIND FIELD WILL SLACKEN...AND
WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...IFR DECKS/MVFR BR IS EXPECTED
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. DECKS
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...
FEW TO SKC UNDER AN EARLY EASTERLY/VRB VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12
KT PM WIND. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MARCHING INLAND MAY HAVE NEAR-COASTAL
TERMINAL WINDS MORE EASTERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...NEAR 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES UNDER SKC BY 19-20Z (ONCE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH
OF HUB). 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT THIS AFTN. NOT A LOT (IF ANY) DEVELOPMENT NOTED
SO FAR AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CAP IS HOLDING.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS NEXT FCST PACKAGE AS SE TX SEEMS TO
BE SETTLING INTO OUR MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE PERS-
ISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILST
THE TRACKS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD EFFECT THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF OUR CWFA FRI/SAT. THUS NO REAL ARGUMENTS WITH THE LOW
POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY (POPS NOT RH) FCST WITH TEMPS AT (AROUND) SEASONAL NORMS THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 71 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 72 90 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 81 74 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KHGX 222051
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPEARS
TO BE WASHING OUT THIS AFTN. NOT A LOT (IF ANY) DEVELOPMENT NOTED
SO FAR AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE CAP IS HOLDING.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS NEXT FCST PACKAGE AS SE TX SEEMS TO
BE SETTLING INTO OUR MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE PERS-
ISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH UP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILST
THE TRACKS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD EFFECT THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF OUR CWFA FRI/SAT. THUS NO REAL ARGUMENTS WITH THE LOW
POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY (POPS NOT RH) FCST WITH TEMPS AT (AROUND) SEASONAL NORMS THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 71 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 72 90 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 81 74 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 221717
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1217 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AROUND TODAY. STILL SEEING SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AND THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO SEEING
ISOLATED SHWRS NEAR HOU. AN ISOLATED TSTM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS AFT ACROSS SE AREAS...BUT TOO LOW OF A CHC TO
INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITES. EXPECT TO SEE AN IFR CEILING FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT AREAWIDE...THEN LIFT TO MVFR MID-MORNING TOMORROW. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 72 91 71 90 / 10 10 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 72 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 75 81 74 82 / 40 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...33
000
FXUS64 KHGX 221558
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE ONGOING TREND OF ISO SHRA DEVELOPING ON
(AND NEAR) THIS FEATURE...WILL BE KEEPING WITH THE LOW POPS AL-
READY IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
WITH THE GOING GRIDS. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. OUTFLOW PUSHED SOUTH WITH STORM EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND NOW STORMS CATCHING BACK UP WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT (WIND) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS IT
MOVES OUT OF LIBERTY AND POSSIBLY CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SOME
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME BACKBUILDING DOWN THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR HEAVY RAINS PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS SOUTHEAST
HARRIS COUNTY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH AND MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.
BEYOND TODAY FEW CHANGES NOTED TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W MOVES OUT
INTO GULF AND THEN RECIRCULATES. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY AROUND CROCKETT AND GROVETON AREAS
IN THE MORNING THEN WESTWARD DURING THE DAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20 PERCENT THOUGH AS CAP MAY BE TO STRONG.
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 72 91 71 90 / 10 10 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 72 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 75 81 74 82 / 40 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 221101
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART HAS WANED OR PUSHED EAST OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PULLED UP
STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST AND FEEL THIS FEATURE COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA LATER TODAY. ADDED VCSH FOR KLBX AND KGLS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE...LIFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR. THE
HOUSTON TAF SITES ARE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION AND SOUTH OF THE
LIFR CIGS BUT LIFR CIGS COULD STILL IMPINGE ON KIAH BEFORE
SUNRISE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. OUTFLOW PUSHED SOUTH WITH STORM EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND NOW STORMS CATCHING BACK UP WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT (WIND) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS IT
MOVES OUT OF LIBERTY AND POSSIBLY CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SOME
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME BACKBUILDING DOWN THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR HEAVY RAINS PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS SOUTHEAST
HARRIS COUNTY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH AND MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.
BEYOND TODAY FEW CHANGES NOTED TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W MOVES OUT
INTO GULF AND THEN RECIRCULATES. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY AROUND CROCKETT AND GROVETON AREAS
IN THE MORNING THEN WESTWARD DURING THE DAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20 PERCENT THOUGH AS CAP MAY BE TO STRONG.
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
45
MARINE...
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 72 91 71 90 / 10 10 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 72 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 75 81 74 82 / 40 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220957
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
457 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. OUTFLOW PUSHED SOUTH WITH STORM EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND NOW STORMS CATCHING BACK UP WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT (WIND) FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS IT
MOVES OUT OF LIBERTY AND POSSIBLY CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SOME
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME BACKBUILDING DOWN THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR HEAVY RAINS PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS SOUTHEAST
HARRIS COUNTY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH AND MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.
BEYOND TODAY FEW CHANGES NOTED TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W MOVES OUT
INTO GULF AND THEN RECIRCULATES. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON FRIDAY AROUND CROCKETT AND GROVETON AREAS
IN THE MORNING THEN WESTWARD DURING THE DAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20 PERCENT THOUGH AS CAP MAY BE TO STRONG.
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
45
&&
.MARINE...
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 72 91 71 90 / 10 10 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 72 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 75 81 74 82 / 40 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220718
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
218 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE...HAVE LET THE WATCH EXPIRE AND HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THE EAST ZONES AROUND LIBERTY. MAY HAVE SOME SPOTTY BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE SLOWING BOUNDARY
THROUGH SUNRISE.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 72 91 71 90 / 10 10 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 75 81 74 82 / 40 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220505
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
TIMING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TONIGHT`S CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS DISPLAYING ENOUGH ROTATION TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST QUARTER-SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES NORTHWEST
OF KCXO. THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH REZ SHORT TERM MODELS TAKE A
JAGGED LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE COAST THROUGH 09Z...TEMPO`ING
STORMS TO AFFECT THE GREATER HOUSTON AREA FROM AROUND 07Z THROUGH
09Z. UNCLEAR AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LINE WILL SAG...BUT VCTS AT
KLBX (TO COAST AROUND 10Z) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE IS OF MODERATE
PROBABILITY. SKIES CLEAR OUT TO AREAWIDE VFR THROUGH MID-MORNING.
A WEAK EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...INLAND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONS ITSELF OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MONITORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING UNDER A VERY GOOD LOOKING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GREATEST RISK CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE...RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT SOME 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MADISON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
MORE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 1 AM CDT.
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON OUR NORTH(WEST)ERN DOORSTEP...TIMED
TO IMPACT KCLL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...KUTS BY 01-02Z. MANY SHORT
RANGE HI REZ MODELS (THAT INITIATED WELL)...SLOWLY TAKE A MORE
RAGGED...OR MORE DIFFUSE...LINE TO THE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HANDLED POINTS FROM CONROE SOUTHWARD WITH A VCTS...WILL TEMPO AS
NEEDED DURING THIS 00-03Z WATCH AND WAIT PERIOD. ACTIVITY SHOULD
COME TO A CLOSE SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT...MAYBE CLOSER TO 09Z NEAR
THE COAST...WITH VFR FOR THE MID-LATE PERIOD. BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS...EARLY EASTERLY FLOW
AT COAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY PAST 19Z WITH THE INLAND MOVEMENT
OF THE LATE MORNING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS
COMBINING WITH A COLD FRONT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY LARGE CAP WAS INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE HGX COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 330 PM.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
RES MODELS WERE PUSHING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM...AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TAKEN NEAR CLL ALL
FORECAST THE CAPE TO BE AROUND 2800 TO 3000 AND A DOWNDRAFT CAPE
AROUND 1450. FEEL THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WINDS. THERE
IS A LESSOR THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOALTED
TORNADO DUE TO HELICITY VALUES OF ABOUT 150. AGREE WITH THE
MODERATE RISK GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR KURTEN
IN NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY TO MADISONVILLE TO LOVELADY TO
CENTRALIA. A SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM EAGLE
LAKE TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY. THE MAIN TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE
DURING THE EVENING BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. COMBINING THIS FACT WITH A SEABREEZE AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW MEANS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER SE TX THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A DRYING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S. BOTH MODELS THEN
DEVELOP A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 40
MARINE...
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL LET THE SCEC EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS. HOWEVER THIS
ONSHORE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND (AND MAYHAP THE REST OF THE SUMMER). 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 72 91 71 / 60 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 90 72 90 72 / 50 30 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 84 75 81 74 / 40 30 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220218
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING UNDER A VERY GOOD LOOKING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GREATEST RISK CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE...RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT SOME 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MADISON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
MORE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 1 AM CDT.
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON OUR NORTH(WEST)ERN DOORSTEP...TIMED
TO IMPACT KCLL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...KUTS BY 01-02Z. MANY SHORT
RANGE HI REZ MODELS (THAT INITIATED WELL)...SLOWLY TAKE A MORE
RAGGED...OR MORE DIFFUSE...LINE TO THE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HANDLED POINTS FROM CONROE SOUTHWARD WITH A VCTS...WILL TEMPO AS
NEEDED DURING THIS 00-03Z WATCH AND WAIT PERIOD. ACTIVITY SHOULD
COME TO A CLOSE SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT...MAYBE CLOSER TO 09Z NEAR
THE COAST...WITH VFR FOR THE MID-LATE PERIOD. BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS...EARLY EASTERLY FLOW
AT COAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY PAST 19Z WITH THE INLAND MOVEMENT
OF THE LATE MORNING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS
COMBINING WITH A COLD FRONT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY LARGE CAP WAS INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE HGX COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 330 PM.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
RES MODELS WERE PUSHING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM...AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TAKEN NEAR CLL ALL
FORECAST THE CAPE TO BE AROUND 2800 TO 3000 AND A DOWNDRAFT CAPE
AROUND 1450. FEEL THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WINDS. THERE
IS A LESSOR THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOALTED
TORNADO DUE TO HELICITY VALUES OF ABOUT 150. AGREE WITH THE
MODERATE RISK GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR KURTEN
IN NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY TO MADISONVILLE TO LOVELADY TO
CENTRALIA. A SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM EAGLE
LAKE TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY. THE MAIN TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE
DURING THE EVENING BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. COMBINING THIS FACT WITH A SEABREEZE AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW MEANS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER SE TX THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A DRYING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S. BOTH MODELS THEN
DEVELOP A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 40
MARINE...
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL LET THE SCEC EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS. HOWEVER THIS
ONSHORE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND (AND MAYHAP THE REST OF THE SUMMER). 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 72 91 71 / 60 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 90 72 90 72 / 50 30 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 84 75 81 74 / 40 30 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220010
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 1 AM CDT.
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON OUR NORTH(WEST)ERN DOORSTEP...TIMED
TO IMPACT KCLL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...KUTS BY 01-02Z. MANY SHORT
RANGE HI REZ MODELS (THAT INITIATED WELL)...SLOWLY TAKE A MORE
RAGGED...OR MORE DIFFUSE...LINE TO THE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HANDLED POINTS FROM CONROE SOUTHWARD WITH A VCTS...WILL TEMPO AS
NEEDED DURING THIS 00-03Z WATCH AND WAIT PERIOD. ACTIVITY SHOULD
COME TO A CLOSE SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT...MAYBE CLOSER TO 09Z NEAR
THE COAST...WITH VFR FOR THE MID-LATE PERIOD. BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS...EARLY EASTERLY FLOW
AT COAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY PAST 19Z WITH THE INLAND MOVEMENT
OF THE LATE MORNING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS
COMBINING WITH A COLD FRONT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY LARGE CAP WAS INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE HGX COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 330 PM.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
RES MODELS WERE PUSHING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM...AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TAKEN NEAR CLL ALL
FORECAST THE CAPE TO BE AROUND 2800 TO 3000 AND A DOWNDRAFT CAPE
AROUND 1450. FEEL THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WINDS. THERE
IS A LESSOR THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOALTED
TORNADO DUE TO HELICITY VALUES OF ABOUT 150. AGREE WITH THE
MODERATE RISK GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR KURTEN
IN NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY TO MADISONVILLE TO LOVELADY TO
CENTRALIA. A SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM EAGLE
LAKE TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY. THE MAIN TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE
DURING THE EVENING BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. COMBINING THIS FACT WITH A SEABREEZE AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW MEANS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER SE TX THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A DRYING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S. BOTH MODELS THEN
DEVELOP A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 40
&&
MARINE...
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL LET THE SCEC EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS. HOWEVER THIS
ONSHORE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND (AND MAYHAP THE REST OF THE SUMMER). 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 72 91 71 / 60 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 90 72 90 72 / 50 30 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 84 75 81 74 / 40 30 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KHGX 212054
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
354 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS
COMBINING WITH A COLD FRONT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY LARGE CAP WAS INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE HGX COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 330 PM.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
RES MODELS WERE PUSHING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM...AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TAKEN NEAR CLL ALL
FORECAST THE CAPE TO BE AROUND 2800 TO 3000 AND A DOWNDRAFT CAPE
AROUND 1450. FEEL THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WINDS. THERE
IS A LESSOR THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOALTED
TORNADO DUE TO HELICITY VALUES OF ABOUT 150. AGREE WITH THE
MODERATE RISK GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR KURTEN
IN NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY TO MADISONVILLE TO LOVELADY TO
CENTRALIA. A SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM EAGLE
LAKE TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY. THE MAIN TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE
DURING THE EVENING BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. COMBINING THIS FACT WITH A SEABREEZE AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW MEANS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER SE TX THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A DRYING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S. BOTH MODELS THEN
DEVELOP A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
40
&&
.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL LET THE SCEC EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS. HOWEVER THIS
ONSHORE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND (AND MAYHAP THE REST OF THE SUMMER). 41
&&
.AVIATION...
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE 18Z TAFS...JUST MAINLY TWEAK-
ING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST. MODELS HAVE NOT TERRIBLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PCPN...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATIONS IT LOOKS LIKE TSRA
TIMES MAY HAVE TO BE RE-TWEAKED AGAIN. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 72 91 71 / 60 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 90 72 90 72 / 50 30 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 84 75 81 74 / 40 30 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211524
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1024 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING AND
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WAS A SPECIAL SOUNDING CONDUCTED
BY TEXAS A&M WHICH STILL SHOWED A CAP AT AROUND 900 MB. THE HIGH
RES MODEL ARW AND NMM DIFFERED A BIT ON THE TIMING...BUT BOTH
INDICATE THAT THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT DURING THE
EARLY AND MID EVENING. WILL TRY AND TIME THE EVENTS AFTER THE 12Z
MODELS COME IN. FOR NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK
AND AN UPDATE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONDS MIXING OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 15-16Z. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SKIRTING
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CWA AND ADDED A VCSH FOR KCLL FOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREMENT WITH CONVECTION FIRING
OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING SE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES BY 00Z. WILL TEMPO THUNDER FOR KCLL AND KUTS THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE SHRINKS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE
CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH. HI RES MODELS REMAIN QUITE BULLISH ON
POPS BU NONE OF THE HI RES MODELS HAVE INITIAILIZED WELL SO WILL
CARRY VCTS/VCSH FOR KIAH...KHOU AND KSGR OVERNIGHT. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND EXTENDING
DOWN TOWARD EL PASO THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW BITS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON
RADAR AND OUT THE WINDOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH S/W OVER AZ/NM THIS
MORNING TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN ENE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE LIFT AFTER 3 PM AND AROUND THE CLL-DKR AREAS
PEAKING AFTER 7 PM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST WITH RAIN
COOLED AIR AND EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND
RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AUSTIN AREA THEN MOVING
EASTWARD. VERY UNSTABLE 3000-4000 J/KG ATMOSPHERE TO WEST OF THE
SETX WILL BE THE INITIATION ZONE BUT SHOULD BE REACHING THE CLL
AREA AROUND 6 PM WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT
OF MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN AROUND 5 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF S/W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SHORT LIVED SPIN UPS BUT WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF BRENHAM TO GROVETON LINE (GREATEST EHI 2.0+ FROM MADISONVILLE
TO CROCKETT BUT OUT AHEAD OF CAP ERODING). DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
WITH THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT THE SEVERE THREAT COULD NEED
EXTENDING BEYOND 06Z AND EXPANDING TO THE COASTAL AREAS. TEXAS
TECH WRF AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLY SQUALL LINE/BOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH HOUSTON AND
TO GALVESTON BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
AND RETURN OF CAP SHOULD LIMIT THAT OUTCOME. SO AS FOR THE
FORECAST HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE
COAST AND SLOWS AND WILL RAISE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE SOUTH WITH THE CAP ERODING IN THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE OF
1800-2500 RETURNING AND SLOW/ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS...MAY HAVE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND COUNTER
TO SEA BREEZE FLOW ALOFT.
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS UP OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE 500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SETX SATURDAY AN SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR THE AFTERNOON FRI-SUN TIMEFRAME TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES
FALL OFF AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW RESUMES. ALSO OF INTEREST LOOKS
TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING SETX AND WESTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
ON A TECHNICAL NOTE...SURFACE OBSERVATION AND LIGHTNING DATA
OUTAGE 04-07Z APPEARS TO BE CORRECTED.
MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN AN SCEC FOR TODAY FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TODAY AND RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 73 89 72 91 / 30 40 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 73 88 72 90 / 20 50 30 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 75 81 75 81 / 10 30 30 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211126
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONDS MIXING OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 15-16Z. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SKIRTING
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CWA AND ADDED A VCSH FOR KCLL FOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREMENT WITH CONVECTION FIRING
OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING SE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES BY 00Z. WILL TEMPO THUNDER FOR KCLL AND KUTS THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE SHRINKS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE
CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH. HI RES MODELS REMAIN QUITE BULLISH ON
POPS BU NONE OF THE HI RES MODELS HAVE INITIAILIZED WELL SO WILL
CARRY VCTS/VCSH FOR KIAH...KHOU AND KSGR OVERNIGHT. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND EXTENDING
DOWN TOWARD EL PASO THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW BITS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON
RADAR AND OUT THE WINDOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH S/W OVER AZ/NM THIS
MORNING TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN ENE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE LIFT AFTER 3 PM AND AROUND THE CLL-DKR AREAS
PEAKING AFTER 7 PM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST WITH RAIN
COOLED AIR AND EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND
RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AUSTIN AREA THEN MOVING
EASTWARD. VERY UNSTABLE 3000-4000 J/KG ATMOSPHERE TO WEST OF THE
SETX WILL BE THE INITIATION ZONE BUT SHOULD BE REACHING THE CLL
AREA AROUND 6 PM WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT
OF MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN AROUND 5 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF S/W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SHORT LIVED SPIN UPS BUT WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF BRENHAM TO GROVETON LINE (GREATEST EHI 2.0+ FROM MADISONVILLE
TO CROCKETT BUT OUT AHEAD OF CAP ERODING). DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
WITH THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT THE SEVERE THREAT COULD NEED
EXTENDING BEYOND 06Z AND EXPANDING TO THE COASTAL AREAS. TEXAS
TECH WRF AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLY SQUALL LINE/BOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH HOUSTON AND
TO GALVESTON BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
AND RETURN OF CAP SHOULD LIMIT THAT OUTCOME. SO AS FOR THE
FORECAST HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE
COAST AND SLOWS AND WILL RAISE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE SOUTH WITH THE CAP ERODING IN THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE OF
1800-2500 RETURNING AND SLOW/ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS...MAY HAVE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND COUNTER
TO SEA BREEZE FLOW ALOFT.
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS UP OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE 500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SETX SATURDAY AN SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR THE AFTERNOON FRI-SUN TIMEFRAME TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES
FALL OFF AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW RESUMES. ALSO OF INTEREST LOOKS
TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING SETX AND WESTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
ON A TECHNICAL NOTE...SURFACE OBSERVATION AND LIGHTNING DATA
OUTAGE 04-07Z APPEARS TO BE CORRECTED.
MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN AN SCEC FOR TODAY FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TODAY AND RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 73 89 72 91 / 30 40 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 73 88 72 90 / 20 50 30 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 75 81 75 81 / 10 30 30 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KHGX 210855
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND EXTENDING
DOWN TOWARD EL PASO THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW BITS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON
RADAR AND OUT THE WINDOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH S/W OVER AZ/NM THIS
MORNING TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN ENE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE LIFT AFTER 3 PM AND AROUND THE CLL-DKR AREAS
PEAKING AFTER 7 PM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST WITH RAIN
COOLED AIR AND EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND
RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AUSTIN AREA THEN MOVING
EASTWARD. VERY UNSTABLE 3000-4000 J/KG ATMOSPHERE TO WEST OF THE
SETX WILL BE THE INITIATION ZONE BUT SHOULD BE REACHING THE CLL
AREA AROUND 6 PM WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT
OF MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN AROUND 5 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF S/W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
SHORT LIVED SPIN UPS BUT WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF BRENHAM TO GROVETON LINE (GREATEST EHI 2.0+ FROM MADISONVILLE
TO CROCKETT BUT OUT AHEAD OF CAP ERODING). DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
WITH THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT THE SEVERE THREAT COULD NEED
EXTENDING BEYOND 06Z AND EXPANDING TO THE COASTAL AREAS. TEXAS
TECH WRF AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLY SQUALL LINE/BOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH HOUSTON AND
TO GALVESTON BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
AND RETURN OF CAP SHOULD LIMIT THAT OUTCOME. SO AS FOR THE
FORECAST HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE
COAST AND SLOWS AND WILL RAISE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE SOUTH WITH THE CAP ERODING IN THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE OF
1800-2500 RETURNING AND SLOW/ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS...MAY HAVE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND COUNTER
TO SEA BREEZE FLOW ALOFT.
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS UP OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE 500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SETX SATURDAY AN SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR THE AFTERNOON FRI-SUN TIMEFRAME TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES
FALL OFF AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW RESUMES. ALSO OF INTEREST LOOKS
TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING SETX AND WESTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
ON A TECHNICAL NOTE...SURFACE OBSERVATION AND LIGHTNING DATA
OUTAGE 04-07Z APPEARS TO BE CORRECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN AN SCEC FOR TODAY FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TODAY AND RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 73 89 72 91 / 30 40 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 73 88 72 90 / 20 50 30 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 75 81 75 81 / 10 30 30 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KHGX 210449
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND BREAK TOMORROW AROUND MID MORNING. CONTINUING
TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGH RES MODELS FOR TOMORROW EVENING`S LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE TSRA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. 42
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE ND...SD...AND MN BORDER...A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS...A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH THEN SHEARING OUT OVER LA AND EASTERN TX ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE
IMPACT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO MORE OF A CONSENSUS AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.
A RETURN TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 OR THE LOWER
90S IS LIKELY FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED A
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED GOOD TEMPERATURE
WISE.
MARINE...
MODERATE (OCCASIONALLY STRONG) ONSHORE WINDS PROGGED TO PERSIST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT (IN RESP-
ONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS). NOT
GOING TO CHANGE THE SCEC CONFIGURATION CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WINDS TO
DECREASE OVER THE MARINE AREAS WEDS NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 90 73 89 72 / 10 30 40 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 90 73 88 72 / 10 20 30 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 80 75 81 75 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KHGX 202334
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
634 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD
INLAND WITH SKIES AREAWIDE EXPECTED TO BE BKN/OVC BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TOO BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. ANTICIPATE CEILINGS
TO LIFT AND BREAK TOMORROW AROUND MID MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGH
RES MODELS FOR TOMORROW EVENING`S LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRA THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE ND...SD...AND MN BORDER...A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS...A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH THEN SHEARING OUT OVER LA AND EASTERN TX ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE
IMPACT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO MORE OF A CONSENSUS AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.
A RETURN TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 OR THE LOWER
90S IS LIKELY FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED A
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED GOOD TEMPERATURE
WISE.
MARINE...
MODERATE (OCCASIONALLY STRONG) ONSHORE WINDS PROGGED TO PERSIST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT (IN RESP-
ONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS). NOT
GOING TO CHANGE THE SCEC CONFIGURATION CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WINDS TO
DECREASE OVER THE MARINE AREAS WEDS NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 90 73 89 72 / 10 30 40 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 90 73 88 72 / 10 20 30 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 80 75 81 75 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KHGX 202050
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE ND...SD...AND MN BORDER...A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS...A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH THEN SHEARING OUT OVER LA AND EASTERN TX ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE
IMPACT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO MORE OF A CONSENSUS AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.
A RETURN TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 OR THE LOWER
90S IS LIKELY FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED A
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED GOOD TEMPERATURE
WISE.
40
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE (OCCASIONALLY STRONG) ONSHORE WINDS PROGGED TO PERSIST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT (IN RESP-
ONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS). NOT
GOING TO CHANGE THE SCEC CONFIGURATION CURRENTLY IN PLACE. WINDS TO
DECREASE OVER THE MARINE AREAS WEDS NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE 18Z TAFS REGARDING THE MVFR/
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AT THE SFC TO
JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOULD KEEP THE PROGGED LOW CLOUD DECK VARIABLE.
WHILE NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT WITH TIMING DID GO AHEAD AND START THE
MENTION OF PCPN (WITH VCTS) AT IAH STARTING MID/LATE AFTN. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 90 73 89 72 / 10 30 40 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 90 73 88 72 / 10 20 30 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 80 75 81 75 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41
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