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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 191207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190950
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190950
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190950
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190950
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190533
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
SITES REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE LOW CIGS TO PERSIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONGOING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PREVIOUSLY RELEGATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT
/ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TOWARDS MATAGORDA BAY AND
STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF AS OF 11 PM/ HAS NOW EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS LIFT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE BIG BEND REGION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP/PERSIST IN A
NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER... FURTHER COMPLICATING CONDITIONS
AT TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO IMPACT VISIBILITY AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH GPS MET ESTIMATED PWATS AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES
/ALMOST 175 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY
FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE ONLY MODESTLY BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEPING A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AT THE
TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
INVERSION PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190309
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
909 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON WITH MORE ELEVATED PRECIP BEGINNING
TO LIFT UP OVER THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD (IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE) RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR EL
PASO MOVES NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER JET
STRETCHING FROM BAJA TO SAT TO SHV TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SETX SHOULD ENTER INTO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT ATTM IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE INTENSE
RAIN RATES BUT A GOOD SOAKING NONETHELESS. IN ADDITION AS THE
PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE MOISTENS UP.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190309
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
909 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON WITH MORE ELEVATED PRECIP BEGINNING
TO LIFT UP OVER THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD (IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE) RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR EL
PASO MOVES NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER JET
STRETCHING FROM BAJA TO SAT TO SHV TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SETX SHOULD ENTER INTO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT ATTM IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE INTENSE
RAIN RATES BUT A GOOD SOAKING NONETHELESS. IN ADDITION AS THE
PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE MOISTENS UP.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 182146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 182146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181752
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST AT 17Z. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP
THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN
ANALYSIS OF THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING IN FAR SOUTH TEXAS. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN
STAY TOGETHER AND MOVE UP THE COAST...THE WARM FRONT MAY MOVE A
BIT FURTHER INLAND. FOR NOW...LIKE THE SCENARIO FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO STAY NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF THE SITES.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM GIVEN THE VARIOUS
SCENARIOS.

THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE SITES. HOWEVER...IFR TO LIFR WILL
DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
MOVING OVER THE COOL GULF WATERS NEAR THE COAST...SEA FOG MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST KGLS...KLBX...AND KHOU BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z. IF THE FOG DEVELOPS...THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE UPDATE...TRIMMED POPS/QPF ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS/GUIDANCE. THINK
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE SITUATED CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  10  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  57  62  46  60 /  40  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  61  66  50  58 /  60  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181752
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST AT 17Z. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP
THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN
ANALYSIS OF THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING IN FAR SOUTH TEXAS. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN
STAY TOGETHER AND MOVE UP THE COAST...THE WARM FRONT MAY MOVE A
BIT FURTHER INLAND. FOR NOW...LIKE THE SCENARIO FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO STAY NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF THE SITES.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM GIVEN THE VARIOUS
SCENARIOS.

THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE SITES. HOWEVER...IFR TO LIFR WILL
DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
MOVING OVER THE COOL GULF WATERS NEAR THE COAST...SEA FOG MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST KGLS...KLBX...AND KHOU BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z. IF THE FOG DEVELOPS...THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE UPDATE...TRIMMED POPS/QPF ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS/GUIDANCE. THINK
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE SITUATED CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  10  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  57  62  46  60 /  40  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  61  66  50  58 /  60  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181507
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE UPDATE...TRIMMED POPS/QPF ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS/GUIDANCE. THINK
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE SITUATED CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  10  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  57  62  46  60 /  40  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  61  66  50  58 /  60  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181507
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE UPDATE...TRIMMED POPS/QPF ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS/GUIDANCE. THINK
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE SITUATED CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED. STILL EXPECT COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  10  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  57  62  46  60 /  40  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  61  66  50  58 /  60  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181151
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CURRENT RADAR
TREND AND LATEST HIGH RES MODELS POINT TOWARD AREAS OF RA/SHRA SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY CENTRAL AND NORTH. CURRENT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM IFR AT BOTH CLL AND UTS TO VFR AT GLS.
AREA COULD SEE A COMBO OF MVFR/VFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RA/SHRA COVERAGE AFTER 19/00Z
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE 19/06Z THRU 19/18Z TIME PERIOD AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. CARRIED PREVAILING SHRA AT
MOST SITES STARTING AT 19/06Z ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CEILINGS. WE
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTER 18Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPANDED A BIT IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND THIS
MORNING WITH TAKING LONGER TO PUSH THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH THAN
CURRENT TRENDS. THERE IS ALSO A WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS
MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL SITES FROM AROUND A PSX TO LBX
TO GLS LINE. AT 250 MB THERE WAS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE JET OF 125 KTS
ANALYZED OVER THE MIDLAND AREA.

THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. BASED
OFF OF CURRENT TRENDS HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND CONFINED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED NOT TO MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RAIN PUSHING TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVING MOST OF THE COVERAGE CONFINED SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO SPRING TO CLEVELAND LINE. GFS 300 K SURFACE ALSO SHOWS
MOST OF THE OVERRUNNING WITH BEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COAST
TODAY. LATE THURSDAY EVENING COVERAGE WILL START TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE THANKS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE JET
PLACEMENT. BOTH NAM AND GFS OMEGA VALUES ARE AGAIN IMPRESSIVE
THANKS TO WIDESPREAD PVA (FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) AND WAA. THE
JET ALSO IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO SPLIT FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SPLIT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
PROVIDES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LIFT. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS ~ 1.50") HAVE RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END FRIDAY AFTERNOON
STARTING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
THANKS TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO FORM FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT
WITH PWATS BELOW 0.8" AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH DOWN INTO IOWA ALLOWING A FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO THE COAST BY 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING BUT QUICKLY START TO PULL TO THE EAST.
THIS MEANS THAT AS OF NOW CHRISTMAS LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE TOO. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINS AND
FOG. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  20  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  57  62  46  60 /  60  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  61  66  50  58 /  70  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181151
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CURRENT RADAR
TREND AND LATEST HIGH RES MODELS POINT TOWARD AREAS OF RA/SHRA SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY CENTRAL AND NORTH. CURRENT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM IFR AT BOTH CLL AND UTS TO VFR AT GLS.
AREA COULD SEE A COMBO OF MVFR/VFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RA/SHRA COVERAGE AFTER 19/00Z
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE 19/06Z THRU 19/18Z TIME PERIOD AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. CARRIED PREVAILING SHRA AT
MOST SITES STARTING AT 19/06Z ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CEILINGS. WE
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTER 18Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPANDED A BIT IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND THIS
MORNING WITH TAKING LONGER TO PUSH THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH THAN
CURRENT TRENDS. THERE IS ALSO A WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS
MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL SITES FROM AROUND A PSX TO LBX
TO GLS LINE. AT 250 MB THERE WAS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE JET OF 125 KTS
ANALYZED OVER THE MIDLAND AREA.

THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. BASED
OFF OF CURRENT TRENDS HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND CONFINED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED NOT TO MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RAIN PUSHING TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVING MOST OF THE COVERAGE CONFINED SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO SPRING TO CLEVELAND LINE. GFS 300 K SURFACE ALSO SHOWS
MOST OF THE OVERRUNNING WITH BEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COAST
TODAY. LATE THURSDAY EVENING COVERAGE WILL START TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE THANKS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE JET
PLACEMENT. BOTH NAM AND GFS OMEGA VALUES ARE AGAIN IMPRESSIVE
THANKS TO WIDESPREAD PVA (FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) AND WAA. THE
JET ALSO IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO SPLIT FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SPLIT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
PROVIDES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LIFT. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS ~ 1.50") HAVE RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END FRIDAY AFTERNOON
STARTING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
THANKS TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO FORM FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT
WITH PWATS BELOW 0.8" AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH DOWN INTO IOWA ALLOWING A FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO THE COAST BY 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING BUT QUICKLY START TO PULL TO THE EAST.
THIS MEANS THAT AS OF NOW CHRISTMAS LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE TOO. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINS AND
FOG. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  20  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  57  62  46  60 /  60  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  61  66  50  58 /  70  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181151
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CURRENT RADAR
TREND AND LATEST HIGH RES MODELS POINT TOWARD AREAS OF RA/SHRA SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY CENTRAL AND NORTH. CURRENT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM IFR AT BOTH CLL AND UTS TO VFR AT GLS.
AREA COULD SEE A COMBO OF MVFR/VFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RA/SHRA COVERAGE AFTER 19/00Z
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE 19/06Z THRU 19/18Z TIME PERIOD AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. CARRIED PREVAILING SHRA AT
MOST SITES STARTING AT 19/06Z ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CEILINGS. WE
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTER 18Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPANDED A BIT IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND THIS
MORNING WITH TAKING LONGER TO PUSH THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH THAN
CURRENT TRENDS. THERE IS ALSO A WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS
MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL SITES FROM AROUND A PSX TO LBX
TO GLS LINE. AT 250 MB THERE WAS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE JET OF 125 KTS
ANALYZED OVER THE MIDLAND AREA.

THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. BASED
OFF OF CURRENT TRENDS HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND CONFINED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED NOT TO MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RAIN PUSHING TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVING MOST OF THE COVERAGE CONFINED SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO SPRING TO CLEVELAND LINE. GFS 300 K SURFACE ALSO SHOWS
MOST OF THE OVERRUNNING WITH BEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COAST
TODAY. LATE THURSDAY EVENING COVERAGE WILL START TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE THANKS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE JET
PLACEMENT. BOTH NAM AND GFS OMEGA VALUES ARE AGAIN IMPRESSIVE
THANKS TO WIDESPREAD PVA (FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) AND WAA. THE
JET ALSO IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO SPLIT FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SPLIT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
PROVIDES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LIFT. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS ~ 1.50") HAVE RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END FRIDAY AFTERNOON
STARTING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
THANKS TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO FORM FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT
WITH PWATS BELOW 0.8" AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH DOWN INTO IOWA ALLOWING A FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO THE COAST BY 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING BUT QUICKLY START TO PULL TO THE EAST.
THIS MEANS THAT AS OF NOW CHRISTMAS LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE TOO. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINS AND
FOG. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  20  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  57  62  46  60 /  60  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  61  66  50  58 /  70  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181151
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CURRENT RADAR
TREND AND LATEST HIGH RES MODELS POINT TOWARD AREAS OF RA/SHRA SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY CENTRAL AND NORTH. CURRENT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM IFR AT BOTH CLL AND UTS TO VFR AT GLS.
AREA COULD SEE A COMBO OF MVFR/VFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING RA/SHRA COVERAGE AFTER 19/00Z
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE 19/06Z THRU 19/18Z TIME PERIOD AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. CARRIED PREVAILING SHRA AT
MOST SITES STARTING AT 19/06Z ALONG WITH MAINLY IFR CEILINGS. WE
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTER 18Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPANDED A BIT IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND THIS
MORNING WITH TAKING LONGER TO PUSH THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH THAN
CURRENT TRENDS. THERE IS ALSO A WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS
MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL SITES FROM AROUND A PSX TO LBX
TO GLS LINE. AT 250 MB THERE WAS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE JET OF 125 KTS
ANALYZED OVER THE MIDLAND AREA.

THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. BASED
OFF OF CURRENT TRENDS HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND CONFINED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED NOT TO MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RAIN PUSHING TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVING MOST OF THE COVERAGE CONFINED SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO SPRING TO CLEVELAND LINE. GFS 300 K SURFACE ALSO SHOWS
MOST OF THE OVERRUNNING WITH BEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COAST
TODAY. LATE THURSDAY EVENING COVERAGE WILL START TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE THANKS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE JET
PLACEMENT. BOTH NAM AND GFS OMEGA VALUES ARE AGAIN IMPRESSIVE
THANKS TO WIDESPREAD PVA (FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) AND WAA. THE
JET ALSO IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO SPLIT FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SPLIT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
PROVIDES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LIFT. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS ~ 1.50") HAVE RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END FRIDAY AFTERNOON
STARTING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
THANKS TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO FORM FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT
WITH PWATS BELOW 0.8" AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH DOWN INTO IOWA ALLOWING A FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO THE COAST BY 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING BUT QUICKLY START TO PULL TO THE EAST.
THIS MEANS THAT AS OF NOW CHRISTMAS LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE TOO. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINS AND
FOG. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  20  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  57  62  46  60 /  60  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  61  66  50  58 /  70  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181034
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPANDED A BIT IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND THIS
MORNING WITH TAKING LONGER TO PUSH THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH THAN
CURRENT TRENDS. THERE IS ALSO A WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS
MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL SITES FROM AROUND A PSX TO LBX
TO GLS LINE. AT 250 MB THERE WAS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE JET OF 125 KTS
ANALYZED OVER THE MIDLAND AREA.

THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. BASED
OFF OF CURRENT TRENDS HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND CONFINED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED NOT TO MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RAIN PUSHING TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVING MOST OF THE COVERAGE CONFINED SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO SPRING TO CLEVELAND LINE. GFS 300 K SURFACE ALSO SHOWS
MOST OF THE OVERRUNNING WITH BEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COAST
TODAY. LATE THURSDAY EVENING COVERAGE WILL START TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE THANKS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE JET
PLACEMENT. BOTH NAM AND GFS OMEGA VALUES ARE AGAIN IMPRESSIVE
THANKS TO WIDESPREAD PVA (FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) AND WAA. THE
JET ALSO IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO SPLIT FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SPLIT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
PROVIDES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LIFT. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS ~ 1.50") HAVE RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END FRIDAY AFTERNOON
STARTING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
THANKS TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO FORM FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT
WITH PWATS BELOW 0.8" AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH DOWN INTO IOWA ALLOWING A FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO THE COAST BY 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING BUT QUICKLY START TO PULL TO THE EAST.
THIS MEANS THAT AS OF NOW CHRISTMAS LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. 23



&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE TOO. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINS AND
FOG. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  20  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  57  62  46  60 /  70  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  61  66  50  58 /  60  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181034
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPANDED A BIT IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND THIS
MORNING WITH TAKING LONGER TO PUSH THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH THAN
CURRENT TRENDS. THERE IS ALSO A WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS
MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL SITES FROM AROUND A PSX TO LBX
TO GLS LINE. AT 250 MB THERE WAS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE JET OF 125 KTS
ANALYZED OVER THE MIDLAND AREA.

THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. BASED
OFF OF CURRENT TRENDS HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND CONFINED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED NOT TO MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RAIN PUSHING TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVING MOST OF THE COVERAGE CONFINED SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO SPRING TO CLEVELAND LINE. GFS 300 K SURFACE ALSO SHOWS
MOST OF THE OVERRUNNING WITH BEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COAST
TODAY. LATE THURSDAY EVENING COVERAGE WILL START TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE THANKS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE JET
PLACEMENT. BOTH NAM AND GFS OMEGA VALUES ARE AGAIN IMPRESSIVE
THANKS TO WIDESPREAD PVA (FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) AND WAA. THE
JET ALSO IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO SPLIT FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SPLIT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
PROVIDES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LIFT. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS ~ 1.50") HAVE RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END FRIDAY AFTERNOON
STARTING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
THANKS TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO FORM FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT
WITH PWATS BELOW 0.8" AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH DOWN INTO IOWA ALLOWING A FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO THE COAST BY 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING BUT QUICKLY START TO PULL TO THE EAST.
THIS MEANS THAT AS OF NOW CHRISTMAS LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. 23



&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE TOO. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINS AND
FOG. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  52  55  46  58 /  20  90  80  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  57  62  46  60 /  70  80  80  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  61  66  50  58 /  60  80  80  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE FOR 06Z ISSUANCE AND
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW. THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS STILL CENTER AROUND MVFR CIGS FALLING TO IFR
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 11 PM REVEALED THE REGION UNDER A RATHER MESSY
PATTERN...WITH AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM
ROUGHLY COTULLA EAST TOWARDS COLUMBUS. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED NEAR A COTULLA...VICTORIA...FREEPORT LINE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENABLE CEILINGS TO LOWER...WITH
A WINDOW OF LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
THE PROBABILITY FOR RAIN IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER OOZ TOMORROW...AND CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER AGAIN BACK
TO IFR.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO
7 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  80  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  70  70  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  50  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE FOR 06Z ISSUANCE AND
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW. THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS STILL CENTER AROUND MVFR CIGS FALLING TO IFR
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 11 PM REVEALED THE REGION UNDER A RATHER MESSY
PATTERN...WITH AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM
ROUGHLY COTULLA EAST TOWARDS COLUMBUS. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED NEAR A COTULLA...VICTORIA...FREEPORT LINE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENABLE CEILINGS TO LOWER...WITH
A WINDOW OF LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
THE PROBABILITY FOR RAIN IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER OOZ TOMORROW...AND CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER AGAIN BACK
TO IFR.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO
7 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  80  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  70  70  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  50  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 180147
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
747 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE 140KT SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH NCTX AT 00Z HELPING TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN CWA AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
IN THE HILL COUNTRY. 12Z/18Z GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH WITH LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SREF STRONGLY SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. AS THE UPPER JET
AXIS SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS BY 10-25 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND ABOUT
10-20 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT
WIDESPREAD AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. PATCHY FOG
THREAT INLAND RETURNS TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS TOMORROW (PROBABLY OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTH) THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE 59 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE METROPLEX.

CLOUDY...WET AND RAINY SHOULD SUM UP TOMORROW NICELY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO
7 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  80  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  70  70  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  50  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180147
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
747 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE 140KT SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH NCTX AT 00Z HELPING TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN CWA AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
IN THE HILL COUNTRY. 12Z/18Z GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH WITH LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SREF STRONGLY SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. AS THE UPPER JET
AXIS SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS BY 10-25 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND ABOUT
10-20 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT
WIDESPREAD AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. PATCHY FOG
THREAT INLAND RETURNS TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS TOMORROW (PROBABLY OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTH) THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE 59 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE METROPLEX.

CLOUDY...WET AND RAINY SHOULD SUM UP TOMORROW NICELY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO
7 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  80  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  70  70  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  50  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 180147
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
747 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE 140KT SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH NCTX AT 00Z HELPING TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN CWA AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
IN THE HILL COUNTRY. 12Z/18Z GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH WITH LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SREF STRONGLY SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. AS THE UPPER JET
AXIS SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS BY 10-25 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND ABOUT
10-20 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT
WIDESPREAD AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. PATCHY FOG
THREAT INLAND RETURNS TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS TOMORROW (PROBABLY OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTH) THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE 59 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE METROPLEX.

CLOUDY...WET AND RAINY SHOULD SUM UP TOMORROW NICELY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO
7 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  80  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  70  70  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  50  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 180147
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
747 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE 140KT SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH NCTX AT 00Z HELPING TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN CWA AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
IN THE HILL COUNTRY. 12Z/18Z GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH WITH LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SREF STRONGLY SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. AS THE UPPER JET
AXIS SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS BY 10-25 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND ABOUT
10-20 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT
WIDESPREAD AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. PATCHY FOG
THREAT INLAND RETURNS TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS TOMORROW (PROBABLY OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTH) THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE 59 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE METROPLEX.

CLOUDY...WET AND RAINY SHOULD SUM UP TOMORROW NICELY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO
7 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  80  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  70  70  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  50  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  60  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  40  50  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  30  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  60  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  40  50  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  30  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 172141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  60  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  40  50  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  30  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 172141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A TEMP DROP...IF AT ALL...OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO PLAINS
WILL SKIRT ACROSS N ZONES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. MOISTURE/PRECIP
ORIENTATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVERNIGHT AS IT
SAGS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONTINUED SCT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SRN 1/4 TO 1/2 PART OF THE
REGION ON THURS WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM
FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT. GENERALLY LIGHT NUISANCE AMOUNTS...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A GLOOMY DAY THAT ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL ONCE THE WARM
SECTOR PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SEA FOG CLOSER TO
COAST THRU FRI.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN WEST COAST.
IT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO TX THURS NIGHT AND FRI.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PW`S AROUND 1.6"...AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE LATE THURS NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRI AFTN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ALER IN THE DAY. MOST
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" NORTH OF
I-10...AND LESS THAN 1" SOUTH OF THERE. WOULDN`T ANTICIPATE VERY
MANY ISSUES W/ THAT SHOULD IT VERIFY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRI EVNG IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM....BRINGING A COOL DRY WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
FRONT TO PUSH THRU ON TUE...PROBABLY A MOSTLY DRY FROPA WITH
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. COOL AND DRY AGAIN THRU XMAS
EVE. PRELIMINARY GUESS FOR XMAS IS FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE. STILL A LONG WAYS OFF WX-WISE THOUGH. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
FORMATION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  60  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  40  50  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  30  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171725
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1125 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS WELL SOUTH OF KGLS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE
COAST. THE 12Z NAM12 MOVES THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INLAND TO A KCLL TO KSGR TO KGLS LINE
EITHER LATE IN THE EVENING OR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE FRONT MAY
OR MAY NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO KIAH AND KCXO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHT RAIN AREAS DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING
WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW COMBINED WITH WAA AND A
WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST
KHGX RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20S AND 30S TO REFLECT
THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN NORTHERN ZONES A COUPLE
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHER THAN THESE TWO
MINOR EDITS...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8000 FEET ARE EDGING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST UNDER A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD.
AREA RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING UP THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND ON INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HAVE TAF SITES REACHING
MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. TAFS CONTINUE THE LOWERING CEILING TREND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE IFR LEVELS
AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO BRINGING IN -RA AT CLL AND UTS OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE MOST
SITES NEEDING -RA/-SHRA ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SOME BR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  20  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  20  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171725
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1125 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS WELL SOUTH OF KGLS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE
COAST. THE 12Z NAM12 MOVES THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INLAND TO A KCLL TO KSGR TO KGLS LINE
EITHER LATE IN THE EVENING OR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE FRONT MAY
OR MAY NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO KIAH AND KCXO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHT RAIN AREAS DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING
WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW COMBINED WITH WAA AND A
WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST
KHGX RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20S AND 30S TO REFLECT
THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN NORTHERN ZONES A COUPLE
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHER THAN THESE TWO
MINOR EDITS...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8000 FEET ARE EDGING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST UNDER A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD.
AREA RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING UP THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND ON INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HAVE TAF SITES REACHING
MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. TAFS CONTINUE THE LOWERING CEILING TREND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE IFR LEVELS
AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO BRINGING IN -RA AT CLL AND UTS OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE MOST
SITES NEEDING -RA/-SHRA ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SOME BR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  20  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  20  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47




000
FXUS64 KHGX 171553
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW COMBINED WITH WAA AND A
WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST
KHGX RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20S AND 30S TO REFLECT
THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN NORTHERN ZONES A COUPLE
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHER THAN THESE TWO
MINOR EDITS...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8000 FEET ARE EDGING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST UNDER A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD.
AREA RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING UP THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND ON INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HAVE TAF SITES REACHING
MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. TAFS CONTINUE THE LOWERING CEILING TREND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE IFR LEVELS
AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO BRINGING IN -RA AT CLL AND UTS OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE MOST
SITES NEEDING -RA/-SHRA ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SOME BR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  10  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  10  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171553
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW COMBINED WITH WAA AND A
WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST
KHGX RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20S AND 30S TO REFLECT
THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN NORTHERN ZONES A COUPLE
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHER THAN THESE TWO
MINOR EDITS...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8000 FEET ARE EDGING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST UNDER A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD.
AREA RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING UP THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND ON INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HAVE TAF SITES REACHING
MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. TAFS CONTINUE THE LOWERING CEILING TREND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE IFR LEVELS
AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO BRINGING IN -RA AT CLL AND UTS OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE MOST
SITES NEEDING -RA/-SHRA ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SOME BR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  10  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  10  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13




000
FXUS64 KHGX 171553
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW COMBINED WITH WAA AND A
WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST
KHGX RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20S AND 30S TO REFLECT
THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN NORTHERN ZONES A COUPLE
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHER THAN THESE TWO
MINOR EDITS...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8000 FEET ARE EDGING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST UNDER A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD.
AREA RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING UP THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND ON INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HAVE TAF SITES REACHING
MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. TAFS CONTINUE THE LOWERING CEILING TREND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE IFR LEVELS
AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO BRINGING IN -RA AT CLL AND UTS OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE MOST
SITES NEEDING -RA/-SHRA ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SOME BR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  10  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  10  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171553
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW COMBINED WITH WAA AND A
WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST
KHGX RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20S AND 30S TO REFLECT
THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN NORTHERN ZONES A COUPLE
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER. OTHER THAN THESE TWO
MINOR EDITS...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8000 FEET ARE EDGING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST UNDER A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD.
AREA RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING UP THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND ON INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HAVE TAF SITES REACHING
MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. TAFS CONTINUE THE LOWERING CEILING TREND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE IFR LEVELS
AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO BRINGING IN -RA AT CLL AND UTS OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE MOST
SITES NEEDING -RA/-SHRA ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SOME BR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  10  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  10  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13




000
FXUS64 KHGX 171152
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8000 FEET ARE EDGING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST UNDER A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD.
AREA RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING UP THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND ON INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HAVE TAF SITES REACHING
MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. TAFS CONTINUE THE LOWERING CEILING TREND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE IFR LEVELS
AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO BRINGING IN -RA AT CLL AND UTS OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE MOST
SITES NEEDING -RA/-SHRA ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SOME BR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  10  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  10  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171152
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 8000 FEET ARE EDGING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST UNDER A THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD.
AREA RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING UP THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND ON INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EXPECTING TO SEE
LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HAVE TAF SITES REACHING
MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. TAFS CONTINUE THE LOWERING CEILING TREND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE IFR LEVELS
AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ALSO BRINGING IN -RA AT CLL AND UTS OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE MOST
SITES NEEDING -RA/-SHRA ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SOME BR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  10  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  10  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 171034
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

&&


.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  10  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  10  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171034
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ON WATER VAPOR THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HELP BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAN BE SEEN ABOUT 400 MI WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA/ OREGON BORDER. TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO RISE
AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES. OMEGA VALUES ARE ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LIFT DUE TO WIDESPREAD WAA. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF... RAP... AND 4 KM NCEP WRF SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FORMING IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN SLOWING PUSHING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. GFS 300 K CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO SUPPORT BEST MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TEXAS
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO HAVE THIS LIGHT
RAIN/ DRIZZLE START IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM WAA WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. OMEGA VALUES FOR THURSDAY ARE RATHER WEAK AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON`T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GFS FORECASTING VALUES AROUND 1.40". RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LATE THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TO NEAR 120 KTS WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN THE RRQ. AT THE SAME
TIME FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
HEAD BRINGING WIDESPREAD PVA WITH IT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS
ALSO FORECASTING PWATS NEAR 1.60" (~ +2 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
NOT SUPRISINGLY THE WIDESPREAD PVA AND WAA ALLOWS OMEGA VALUES TO
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN FORMING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3" IN SOME AREAS. THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS FROM THE RRQ ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT. GENERALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 KTS IN BOTH GFS/
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE SPC HAS PUT SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 (FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY
MORNING).

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL ALSO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BUT RAIN LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN PWAT VALUES BELOW 0.70". FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. 23

&&


.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS ON FRIDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAUTION
FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OVER THE WEEKEND...
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  54  66  57  60 /  30  50  50  80  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  57  71  61  68 /  10  50  50  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  62  70  63  67 /  10  30  50  50  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 170552
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND VFR
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IN ADDITION TO FOG PRODUCING MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 11 PM DEPICTED THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5-7KFT BY 11Z...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DECK PRESENTLY WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER. CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AROUND 18/00Z. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18/00Z
AND 18/06Z AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND CEILINGS TO LOW END MVFR.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EVIDENT ON EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...IMPACTING PRIMARILY COLLEGE STATION BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WITH AREAS OF ALSO FOG PRODUCING
MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 170552
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND VFR
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IN ADDITION TO FOG PRODUCING MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 11 PM DEPICTED THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5-7KFT BY 11Z...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DECK PRESENTLY WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER. CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AROUND 18/00Z. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18/00Z
AND 18/06Z AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND CEILINGS TO LOW END MVFR.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EVIDENT ON EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...IMPACTING PRIMARILY COLLEGE STATION BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WITH AREAS OF ALSO FOG PRODUCING
MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 170320
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INTENSIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. DECK OF 4000-7000FT
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CI ABOVE THAT SPREADING EAST.
THIS WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT A LITTLE
TRICKY. ATTM THINK THAT UPPER 30S SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DRIER
NORTHEASTERN AREAS AND THAT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO ARREST THE
FALL IN THE WEST SO HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS IN MIND. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID MORNING
AND EVEN THEN SHOULD BE LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
WEST AS CLOUD COVER DEEPENS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CENTERING AROUND THE TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5-6KFT IN PLACE BY 17/12Z.
ADDITIONAL COLUMN SATURATION WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR THE HOUSTON
TERMINALS AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 21Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO
ENABLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT THE TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END /AND
AFTER THE END/ OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES BEFORE 18/00Z
AT COLLEGE STATION. LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THE HOUSTON
TERMINALS PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT -RA/DZ DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO HAPPEN BETWEEN 18/00Z AND 18/06Z.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WARMING INTO
THE SEASONABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY...TRAVELS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
VEER MORE EASTERLY TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN DRAWING UP MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER THAN 50% LOW TO MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND NAM TO ADVANCE UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT REGULATES
WESTERN CWA MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS TO THE MID
40S WITH SLOW-ADVANCING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING THESE SITES
TO FALL BELOW 40F. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH THE AVERAGE
LOWER 40S OUT WEST...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL AFFORD THE UPPER 30S.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
OVERCAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EITHER DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES AND
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
THIS WILL CLOSE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING CLOUDS BASES AND INTRODUCING FOG WITHIN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MURKY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRECURSOR
TO AN OVERCAST DAY WITH HIGH PROBS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER THE CWA.
EASTERN TEXAS MIGHT ALSO FALL UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A PRONOUNCED
JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE BEING A WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING AREAWIDE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OR CLOSED OFF LOW THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY...QPF RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN
INCH AROUND THE COAST TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALL DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND/OR ATTENDANT SURFACE TROF/LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN
FALLS...BUT NWP PROGS AND WPC DO PLACE THE HIGHEST DAY 3 RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL WHISK ALL CONVECTION EAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT NE-E
FLOW THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK HAS
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW...LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
31

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GENTLY VEER TO THE NE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
SCOOTS UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 162340
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CENTERING AROUND THE TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5-6KFT IN PLACE BY 17/12Z.
ADDITIONAL COLUMN SATURATION WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR THE HOUSTON
TERMINALS AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 21Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO
ENABLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT THE TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END /AND
AFTER THE END/ OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES BEFORE 18/00Z
AT COLLEGE STATION. LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THE HOUSTON
TERMINALS PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT -RA/DZ DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO HAPPEN BETWEEN 18/00Z AND 18/06Z.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WARMING INTO
THE SEASONABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY...TRAVELS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
VEER MORE EASTERLY TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN DRAWING UP MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER THAN 50% LOW TO MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND NAM TO ADVANCE UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT REGULATES
WESTERN CWA MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS TO THE MID
40S WITH SLOW-ADVANCING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING THESE SITES
TO FALL BELOW 40F. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH THE AVERAGE
LOWER 40S OUT WEST...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL AFFORD THE UPPER 30S.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
OVERCAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EITHER DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES AND
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
THIS WILL CLOSE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING CLOUDS BASES AND INTRODUCING FOG WITHIN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MURKY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRECURSOR
TO AN OVERCAST DAY WITH HIGH PROBS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER THE CWA.
EASTERN TEXAS MIGHT ALSO FALL UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A PRONOUNCED
JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE BEING A WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING AREAWIDE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OR CLOSED OFF LOW THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY...QPF RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN
INCH AROUND THE COAST TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALL DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND/OR APPENDANT SURFACE TROF/LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN
FALLS...BUT NWP PROGS AND WPC DO PLACE THE HIGHEST DAY 3 RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL WHISK ALL CONVECTION EAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT NE-E
FLOW THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK HAS
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW...LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
31

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GENTLY VEER TO THE NE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
SCOOTS UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 162340
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CENTERING AROUND THE TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5-6KFT IN PLACE BY 17/12Z.
ADDITIONAL COLUMN SATURATION WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR THE HOUSTON
TERMINALS AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 21Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO
ENABLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT THE TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END /AND
AFTER THE END/ OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES BEFORE 18/00Z
AT COLLEGE STATION. LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THE HOUSTON
TERMINALS PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT -RA/DZ DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO HAPPEN BETWEEN 18/00Z AND 18/06Z.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WARMING INTO
THE SEASONABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY...TRAVELS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
VEER MORE EASTERLY TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN DRAWING UP MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER THAN 50% LOW TO MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND NAM TO ADVANCE UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT REGULATES
WESTERN CWA MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS TO THE MID
40S WITH SLOW-ADVANCING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING THESE SITES
TO FALL BELOW 40F. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH THE AVERAGE
LOWER 40S OUT WEST...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL AFFORD THE UPPER 30S.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
OVERCAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EITHER DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES AND
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
THIS WILL CLOSE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING CLOUDS BASES AND INTRODUCING FOG WITHIN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MURKY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRECURSOR
TO AN OVERCAST DAY WITH HIGH PROBS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER THE CWA.
EASTERN TEXAS MIGHT ALSO FALL UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A PRONOUNCED
JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE BEING A WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING AREAWIDE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OR CLOSED OFF LOW THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY...QPF RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN
INCH AROUND THE COAST TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALL DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND/OR APPENDANT SURFACE TROF/LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN
FALLS...BUT NWP PROGS AND WPC DO PLACE THE HIGHEST DAY 3 RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL WHISK ALL CONVECTION EAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT NE-E
FLOW THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK HAS
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW...LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
31

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GENTLY VEER TO THE NE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
SCOOTS UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 162113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WARMING INTO
THE SEASONABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY...TRAVELS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
VEER MORE EASTERLY TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN DRAWING UP MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER THAN 50% LOW TO MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND NAM TO ADVANCE UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT REGULATES
WESTERN CWA MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS TO THE MID
40S WITH SLOW-ADVANCING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING THESE SITES
TO FALL BELOW 40F. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH THE AVERAGE
LOWER 40S OUT WEST...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL AFFORD THE UPPER 30S.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
OVERCAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EITHER DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES AND
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
THIS WILL CLOSE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING CLOUDS BASES AND INTRODUCING FOG WITHIN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MURKY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRECURSOR
TO AN OVERCAST DAY WITH HIGH PROBS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER THE CWA.
EASTERN TEXAS MIGHT ALSO FALL UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A PRONOUNCED
JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE BEING A WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING AREAWIDE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OR CLOSED OFF LOW THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY...QPF RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN
INCH AROUND THE COAST TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALL DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND/OR APPENDANT SURFACE TROF/LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN
FALLS...BUT NWP PROGS AND WPC DO PLACE THE HIGHEST DAY 3 RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL WHISK ALL CONVECTION EAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT NE-E
FLOW THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK HAS
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW...LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
31

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GENTLY VEER TO THE NE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
SCOOTS UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 162113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WARMING INTO
THE SEASONABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY...TRAVELS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
VEER MORE EASTERLY TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN DRAWING UP MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER THAN 50% LOW TO MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND NAM TO ADVANCE UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT REGULATES
WESTERN CWA MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS TO THE MID
40S WITH SLOW-ADVANCING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING THESE SITES
TO FALL BELOW 40F. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH THE AVERAGE
LOWER 40S OUT WEST...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL AFFORD THE UPPER 30S.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
OVERCAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EITHER DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES AND
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
THIS WILL CLOSE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING CLOUDS BASES AND INTRODUCING FOG WITHIN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MURKY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRECURSOR
TO AN OVERCAST DAY WITH HIGH PROBS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER THE CWA.
EASTERN TEXAS MIGHT ALSO FALL UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A PRONOUNCED
JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE BEING A WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING AREAWIDE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OR CLOSED OFF LOW THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY...QPF RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN
INCH AROUND THE COAST TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALL DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND/OR APPENDANT SURFACE TROF/LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN
FALLS...BUT NWP PROGS AND WPC DO PLACE THE HIGHEST DAY 3 RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL WHISK ALL CONVECTION EAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT NE-E
FLOW THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK HAS
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW...LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
31

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GENTLY VEER TO THE NE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
SCOOTS UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 162113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WARMING INTO
THE SEASONABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY...TRAVELS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
VEER MORE EASTERLY TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN DRAWING UP MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER THAN 50% LOW TO MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND NAM TO ADVANCE UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT REGULATES
WESTERN CWA MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS TO THE MID
40S WITH SLOW-ADVANCING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING THESE SITES
TO FALL BELOW 40F. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH THE AVERAGE
LOWER 40S OUT WEST...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL AFFORD THE UPPER 30S.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
OVERCAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EITHER DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES AND
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
THIS WILL CLOSE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING CLOUDS BASES AND INTRODUCING FOG WITHIN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MURKY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRECURSOR
TO AN OVERCAST DAY WITH HIGH PROBS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER THE CWA.
EASTERN TEXAS MIGHT ALSO FALL UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A PRONOUNCED
JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE BEING A WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING AREAWIDE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OR CLOSED OFF LOW THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY...QPF RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN
INCH AROUND THE COAST TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALL DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND/OR APPENDANT SURFACE TROF/LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN
FALLS...BUT NWP PROGS AND WPC DO PLACE THE HIGHEST DAY 3 RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL WHISK ALL CONVECTION EAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT NE-E
FLOW THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK HAS
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW...LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
31

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GENTLY VEER TO THE NE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
SCOOTS UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 162113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WARMING INTO
THE SEASONABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY...TRAVELS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
VEER MORE EASTERLY TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN DRAWING UP MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER THAN 50% LOW TO MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND NAM TO ADVANCE UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT REGULATES
WESTERN CWA MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS TO THE MID
40S WITH SLOW-ADVANCING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING THESE SITES
TO FALL BELOW 40F. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH THE AVERAGE
LOWER 40S OUT WEST...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL AFFORD THE UPPER 30S.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
OVERCAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EITHER DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES AND
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
THIS WILL CLOSE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING CLOUDS BASES AND INTRODUCING FOG WITHIN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MURKY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRECURSOR
TO AN OVERCAST DAY WITH HIGH PROBS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER THE CWA.
EASTERN TEXAS MIGHT ALSO FALL UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A PRONOUNCED
JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE BEING A WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING AREAWIDE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OR CLOSED OFF LOW THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY...QPF RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN
INCH AROUND THE COAST TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALL DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND/OR APPENDANT SURFACE TROF/LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN
FALLS...BUT NWP PROGS AND WPC DO PLACE THE HIGHEST DAY 3 RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL WHISK ALL CONVECTION EAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT NE-E
FLOW THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK HAS
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW...LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
31

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GENTLY VEER TO THE NE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
SCOOTS UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 161717
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VFR CONDS THROUGH 06Z BUT
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ENCROACH ON AREA TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTH.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH E-SE WINDS DEVELOPING WED
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO SE TX WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
RAISED SKY COVER IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...THE FORECAST
PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS. 13/31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  43  54  52  65 /   0   0  30  60  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  44  59  55  70 /   0   0  20  50  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  53  62  61  69 /   0   0  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 161717
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VFR CONDS THROUGH 06Z BUT
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ENCROACH ON AREA TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTH.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH E-SE WINDS DEVELOPING WED
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO SE TX WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
RAISED SKY COVER IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...THE FORECAST
PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS. 13/31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  43  54  52  65 /   0   0  30  60  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  44  59  55  70 /   0   0  20  50  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  53  62  61  69 /   0   0  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





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