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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251811
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
111 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
SOME OVER THE NON-METRO TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT WHERE SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY IMPACT VISIBILITIES. PATCHY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THINK WE
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
BUMPED MAX TEMPS INLAND UP 1 TO 2 DEGREES. ADJUSTED DW PTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. A VERY
PLEASANT LATE OCT AFTERNOON IS ON TAP. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  60  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  58  86  63  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  67  80  71  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251511
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1011 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THINK WE
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
BUMPED MAX TEMPS INLAND UP 1 TO 2 DEGREES. ADJUSTED DW PTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. A VERY
PLEASANT LATE OCT AFTERNOON IS ON TAP. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  59  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  61  85  63  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  70  81  71  80 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251140
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
640 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWERED...BUT STILL VFR...VISIBILITIES FROM
PATCHY FOG AT KCXO...KLBX..AND KSGR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY BUT BASED ON LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND SUNRISE
APPROACHING... CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE MVFR AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING AROUND 12Z.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM SETX TO LA
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT...MAY
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AS UPPER HIGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS MOVES QUICKLY EAST AND
IS OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
MARCHES ON MONDAY AND WINDS OVER SETX INCREASE AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE. MORE CLOUD COVER AND MORE CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE INCREASED WAA BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY
SHOWERS AS CAP MAY STILL BE STOUT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO E TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO SETX THU BUT CAA IS LACKING UNTIL
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTH TO REINFORCE THE FRONT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ON
HALLOWEEN AND COOLER. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
45

MARINE...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY START VEERING TO THE SOUTH
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND AN SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  59  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  61  85  63  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  70  81  71  80 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 251140
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
640 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWERED...BUT STILL VFR...VISIBILITIES FROM
PATCHY FOG AT KCXO...KLBX..AND KSGR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY BUT BASED ON LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND SUNRISE
APPROACHING... CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE MVFR AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING AROUND 12Z.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM SETX TO LA
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT...MAY
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AS UPPER HIGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS MOVES QUICKLY EAST AND
IS OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
MARCHES ON MONDAY AND WINDS OVER SETX INCREASE AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE. MORE CLOUD COVER AND MORE CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE INCREASED WAA BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY
SHOWERS AS CAP MAY STILL BE STOUT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO E TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO SETX THU BUT CAA IS LACKING UNTIL
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTH TO REINFORCE THE FRONT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ON
HALLOWEEN AND COOLER. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
45

MARINE...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY START VEERING TO THE SOUTH
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND AN SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  59  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  61  85  63  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  70  81  71  80 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 250917
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
417 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM SETX TO LA
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT...MAY
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AS UPPER HIGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS MOVES QUICKLY EAST AND
IS OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
MARCHES ON MONDAY AND WINDS OVER SETX INCREASE AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE. MORE CLOUD COVER AND MORE CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE INCREASED WAA BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY
SHOWERS AS CAP MAY STILL BE STOUT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO E TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO SETX THU BUT CAA IS LACKING UNTIL
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTH TO REINFORCE THE FRONT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ON
HALLOWEEN AND COOLER. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
45

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY START VEERING TO THE SOUTH
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND AN SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  59  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  61  85  63  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  70  81  71  80 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 250445
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
ALL IS QUIET THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...AND IT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATE IS NEEDED. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  87  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  86  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  81  70  82  71 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 250229
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
929 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD...AND IT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR.  47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING IN FROM THE WEST...AS NICELY
DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS...AND THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS TO GORGEOUS WEEKEND
WEATHER. WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS SUBSIDENCE WARMS THE
MIDDLE LEVELS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WITHIN
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER
80F AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS WEEKEND. TOMORROW
MORNING WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN (INTERIOR 50S) WITH THE LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS BEING REALIZED AS NEAR-SUNRISE PATCHY FOG OVER
MORE RURAL EXPANSES. AS RIDGING MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN WILL VEER ONSHORE AND AID IN
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES. THUS...SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS
WILL BECOME MILDER AND A STRENGTHENED AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL REGULATE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON WARMTH BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL
MEAN LOWER 80S.

THIS PACKAGE IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ONE AS RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW CHANCE AT BEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
EARLY WEEK SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE/FROPA IS MODELED
TO COME THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN THE `RELATIVELY` HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS. NWP MODELING
HAS BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE WITH SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH PWS PROGGED
FOR MID-WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER -SHRA OR ISOLATED THUNDER
IF THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFERED BY A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OR ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEAR 1030 MB
MIDWESTERN HIGH TRAVELING DOWN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN
HALLOWEEN DAY`S OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EARLY DAY MODERATE
NORTHERLIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA/MARINE ZONES...WITH
A WEAKENING GRADIENT/WIND FIELD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IF THE
TIMING WORKS OUT...IT APPEARS A BACKING DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SPLENDID WEEKEND IN KICKING OFF THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER. 31

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN SCEC MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  87  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  86  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  81  70  82  71 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...47





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING IN FROM THE WEST...AS NICELY
DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS...AND THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS TO GORGEOUS WEEKEND
WEATHER. WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS SUBSIDENCE WARMS THE
MIDDLE LEVELS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WITHIN
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER
80F AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS WEEKEND. TOMORROW
MORNING WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN (INTERIOR 50S) WITH THE LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS BEING REALIZED AS NEAR-SUNRISE PATCHY FOG OVER
MORE RURAL EXPANSES. AS RIDGING MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN WILL VEER ONSHORE AND AID IN
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES. THUS...SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS
WILL BECOME MILDER AND A STRENGTHENED AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL REGULATE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON WARMTH BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL
MEAN LOWER 80S.

THIS PACKAGE IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ONE AS RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW CHANCE AT BEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
EARLY WEEK SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE/FROPA IS MODELED
TO COME THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN THE `RELATIVELY` HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS. NWP MODELING
HAS BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE WITH SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH PWS PROGGED
FOR MID-WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER -SHRA OR ISOLATED THUNDER
IF THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFERED BY A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OR ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEAR 1030 MB
MIDWESTERN HIGH TRAVELING DOWN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN
HALLOWEEN DAY`S OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EARLY DAY MODERATE
NORTHERLIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA/MARINE ZONES...WITH
A WEAKENING GRADIENT/WIND FIELD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IF THE
TIMING WORKS OUT...IT APPEARS A BACKING DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SPLENDID WEEKEND IN KICKING OFF THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER. 31

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN SCEC MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  87  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  86  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  81  70  82  71 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 242041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING IN FROM THE WEST...AS NICELY
DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS...AND THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS TO GORGEOUS WEEKEND
WEATHER. WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS SUBSIDENCE WARMS THE
MIDDLE LEVELS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WITHIN
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER
80F AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS WEEKEND. TOMORROW
MORNING WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN (INTERIOR 50S) WITH THE LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS BEING REALIZED AS NEAR-SUNRISE PATCHY FOG OVER
MORE RURAL EXPANSES. AS RIDGING MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN WILL VEER ONSHORE AND AID IN
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES. THUS...SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS
WILL BECOME MILDER AND A STRENGTHENED AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL REGULATE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON WARMTH BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL
MEAN LOWER 80S.

THIS PACKAGE IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ONE AS RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW CHANCE AT BEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
EARLY WEEK SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE/FROPA IS MODELED
TO COME THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN THE `RELATIVELY` HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS. NWP MODELING
HAS BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE WITH SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH PWS PROGGED
FOR MID-WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER -SHRA OR ISOLATED THUNDER
IF THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFERED BY A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OR ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEAR 1030 MB
MIDWESTERN HIGH TRAVELING DOWN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN
HALLOWEEN DAY`S OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EARLY DAY MODERATE
NORTHERLIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA/MARINE ZONES...WITH
A WEAKENING GRADIENT/WIND FIELD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IF THE
TIMING WORKS OUT...IT APPEARS A BACKING DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SPLENDID WEEKEND IN KICKING OFF THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER. 31

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN SCEC MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  87  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  86  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  81  70  82  71 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO AREA TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
A BEAUTIFUL STRING OF DAYS AHEAD FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITHIN A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND A LIGHT VARIABLE BREEZE
MAKES FOR A PRISTINE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RECENT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOUNTING RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING STABILITY
AND STEERING ANY INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF
INTO THE MIDWESTERN U.S.. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIEST AIR OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTED IN ON ENTIRE
COLUMN NORTHERLY FLOW ORIENTED EAST OF THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR TODAY...WITH THE
MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND FIELD AFFORDING MANY
INTERIOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COOLEST SPOT WAS CONROE AT 50F. A WARMER WEEKEND AS THE MID-
LEVELS WARM TO AROUND 17C...A LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR MASS WITH GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW...AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE
80S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW UPPER 80F READINGS TOMORROW. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  58  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  54  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  64  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A BEAUTIFUL STRING OF DAYS AHEAD FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITHIN A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND A LIGHT VARIABLE BREEZE
MAKES FOR A PRISTINE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RECENT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOUNTING RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING STABILITY
AND STEERING ANY INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF
INTO THE MIDWESTERN U.S.. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIEST AIR OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTED IN ON ENTIRE
COLUMN NORTHERLY FLOW ORIENTED EAST OF THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR TODAY...WITH THE
MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND FIELD AFFORDING MANY
INTERIOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COOLEST SPOT WAS CONROE AT 50F. A WARMER WEEKEND AS THE MID-
LEVELS WARM TO AROUND 17C...A LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR MASS WITH GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW...AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE
80S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW UPPER 80F READINGS TOMORROW. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS TO CONTINUE. A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KLBX WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE REMOVED MENTION
FROM TAF. 14

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMER ON THE ISLAND FOR LOWS
ALL WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING BUILDS EASTWARD AND OUT INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY TURNING WINDS ACROSS SETX TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING NOTICEABLY ON MONDAY...MAY EVEN APPROACH
BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOISTURE
RETURNS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY
INCREASING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOW
AND STALL OVER N TX KEEPING SETX IN WAA WITH WEAK S/W FORCING TUE
AND WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THIS POINT
WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND BLEND IT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REGION ON FRIDAY SETTING
US UP FOR A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AROUND THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER. 45

&&

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS... WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
SATURDAY EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE GULF. ANTICIPATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GENERATING BUILDING SEAS... STRONG
WINDS MAY WARRANT AN SCEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  58  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  54  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  64  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241140
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
640 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS TO CONTINUE. A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KLBX WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE REMOVED MENTION
FROM TAF.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMER ON THE ISLAND FOR LOWS
ALL WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING BUILDS EASTWARD AND OUT INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY TURNING WINDS ACROSS SETX TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING NOTICEABLY ON MONDAY...MAY EVEN APPROACH
BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOISTURE
RETURNS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY
INCREASING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOW
AND STALL OVER N TX KEEPING SETX IN WAA WITH WEAK S/W FORCING TUE
AND WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THIS POINT
WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND BLEND IT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REGION ON FRIDAY SETTING
US UP FOR A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AROUND THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER.
45

MARINE...

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS... WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE GULF. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION TO GENERATING BUILDING SEAS... STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN
SCEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  58  85  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  54  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  64  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 240955
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMER ON THE ISLAND FOR LOWS
ALL WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING BUILDS EASTWARD AND OUT INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY TURNING WINDS ACROSS SETX TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING NOTICEABLY ON MONDAY...MAY EVEN APPROACH
BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOISTURE
RETURNS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY
INCREASING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOW
AND STALL OVER N TX KEEPING SETX IN WAA WITH WEAK S/W FORCING TUE
AND WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THIS POINT
WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND BLEND IT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REGION ON FRIDAY SETTING
US UP FOR A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AROUND THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER.
45


&&
.MARINE...

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS... WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE GULF. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION TO GENERATING BUILDING SEAS... STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN
SCEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

14
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  58  85  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  54  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  64  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 240502
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE AT KUTS AND KLBX BUT ANTICIPATE
ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 240502
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE AT KUTS AND KLBX BUT ANTICIPATE
ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 240138
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
838 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE
AREA SO SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
IN THE 50S LOOK ON TRACK AGAIN SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
THEY HAD BEEN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE MID 80S.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SHALLOW GROUND
FOG AT OUTLYING LOCATIONS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 232333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SHALLOW GROUND
FOG AT OUTLYING LOCATIONS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 232037
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
24 HOUR 5H HEIGHT RISES OF 50 TO 60 M RANGE ARE INDICATIVE OF AN
EVOLVING DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGE PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS
PROGS THIS RIDGE TO AMPLIFY WITH ITS AXIS ORIENTED OVER WESTERN
TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN WILL SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS OVER THIS LAST WEEKEND OF
OCTOBER...VEERING THIS LATE WEEK NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW TO ONSHORE SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH IN A LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIER AIR MASS THAT WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND LOWER DEW POINTS/%RHS. PLENTY OF SUN...WARMING
AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 80-85F WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AS %RH`S BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...WILL MAKE FRIDAY THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MANY.

WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER. AS UPPER
RIDGING FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN MOVEMENT OF A
DEEPENING ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROUGH...MID-UPPER FLOW SHOULD VEER A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND BUMP 85H TEMPS UP TO AROUND 16-17 DEG C. A
VARIABLE TO WEAK LL ONSHORE BREEZE WITH PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL AFFORD MANY MAXING OUT IN THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 80S. MORE
SUN...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY COULD PUSH AFTERNOON
READINGS TO NEAR 90F AND COME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR NEARLY 65 YEARS IN
THE CITY). SUNDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS WARM...BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON EXTREME NUMBERS PER MAYBE MORE CLOUD COVER OR A BETTER
PRONOUNCED ONSHORE WIND.

NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING AS RAIN CHANCES COME
BACK INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND OF MID-WEEK TROUGH
PASSAGE/FROPA. BOTH SLOWLY ADVANCE A SURFACE BOUNDARY (OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH) INTO NORTHERN TEXAS LATE WED/EARLY THU WHILE
PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW PUMPS UP DOWNSTREAM PWS TO NEAR 1.5 OR 1.6
INCHES. NO APPARENT S/W TO TRIGGER MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER SE TX
WEDNESDAY...MAYBE JUST SCATTERED NORTHERN CWA SHOWERS ALONG WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE DOWNSTREAM LL WIND SHIFT. THE
MID-WEEK ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE (8-85H CAP)AND NOT QUITE
MOIST ENOUGH TO WARRANT NO MORE THAT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS. U.S. MIDWEST ENERGY DIVING INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY
IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST THURSDAY...MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLIES IN ITS WAKE MID TO LATE THURSDAY. THE HALLOWEEN
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE QUITE BREEZY AND DRY. 31

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO SE TX THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER
TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN.
AN SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES NEXT WEDS/THURS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231703
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 00-03Z. NAM 12 KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH 18Z NEAR KCLL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT
THE USUAL SITES EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND VARY BETWEEN E-NE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GENERATED
A THICK WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU DECK TO KEEP NORTHERN COUNTY MINIMUMS
IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOW TO MID 60S. FURTHER SOUTH...UNDER
MORE CLEAR SKIES...READINGS WERE IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 50S. SPITS
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WHAT WAS SENSED WAS
VIRGA. YESTERDAY`S 21/12Z NAM12 SOUNDINGS DID A GOOD JOB PROGGING
THIS EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL DECK SO STICKING WITH ITS NEAR TERM SOLUTION
OF SCATTERING OUT TO MAINLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
..NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW PULLS IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
WESTERN UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE MX/MN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S/MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  58  85  58  86 /  10  10   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  55  84  56  85 /  10  10   0  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  81  67  79 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231703
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 00-03Z. NAM 12 KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH 18Z NEAR KCLL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT
THE USUAL SITES EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND VARY BETWEEN E-NE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GENERATED
A THICK WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU DECK TO KEEP NORTHERN COUNTY MINIMUMS
IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOW TO MID 60S. FURTHER SOUTH...UNDER
MORE CLEAR SKIES...READINGS WERE IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 50S. SPITS
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WHAT WAS SENSED WAS
VIRGA. YESTERDAY`S 21/12Z NAM12 SOUNDINGS DID A GOOD JOB PROGGING
THIS EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL DECK SO STICKING WITH ITS NEAR TERM SOLUTION
OF SCATTERING OUT TO MAINLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
..NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW PULLS IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
WESTERN UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE MX/MN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S/MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  58  85  58  86 /  10  10   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  55  84  56  85 /  10  10   0  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  81  67  79 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 231517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GENERATED
A THICK WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU DECK TO KEEP NORTHERN COUNTY MINIMUMS
IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOW TO MID 60S. FURTHER SOUTH...UNDER
MORE CLEAR SKIES...READINGS WERE IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 50S. SPITS
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WHAT WAS SENSED WAS
VIRGA. YESTERDAY`S 21/12Z NAM12 SOUNDINGS DID A GOOD JOB PROGGING
THIS EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL DECK SO STICKING WITH ITS NEAR TERM SOLUTION
OF SCATTERING OUT TO MAINLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW PULLS IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
WESTERN UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE MX/MN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S/MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT A FEW OF THE STATIONS UNDER
THE SERPENTINE RADAR BAND STRETCHING FROM EWX INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS DZ WILL LIKELY
LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF OUR FCST ATTM. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES
WITH THE FCST THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MILD/ DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY UNTIL LATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS. WARMER TEMPS/SLOWLY
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AOA SUN THRU THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. HAVE OPTED TO
WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE SLOWER GFS FOR
NOW. 41

&&

AVIATION...
VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT UTS/CXO/LBX THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE MINOR IMPACTS. UPPER SPEED MAX (90KTS) CAN BE TRACKED FROM AROUND
JCT TO GGG AND APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING WEAK LIFT FROM NEAR SAT TO
CLL WITH SOME SPRINKLES/-RA/DZ BUT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
BACK NEAR SAT. DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE AT CLL/IAH
AREAS BUT THIS ENTRANCE REGION WILL CERTAINLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WHAT IS
LEFT OF IT MAY REACH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. 45

&&

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY THOUGH ONLY IN THE 10-15
KNOTS RANGE...SEAS ALSO LOWER AT 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS SETX/LA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WHICH IN TURNS SWINGS WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SCECS MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY SLOW OR
STALL IN SETX BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THE WINDS BACK
TO THE EAST. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  58  85  58  86 /  10  10   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  55  84  56  85 /  10  10   0  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  81  67  79 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230940
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT A FEW OF THE STATIONS UNDER
THE SERPENTINE RADAR BAND STRETCHING FROM EWX INTO THE NWRN POR-
TIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS DZ
WILL LIKELY LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF OUR FCST ATTM. OTHERWISE NO
REAL CHANGES WITH THE FCST THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MILD/
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS. WARMER
TEMPS/SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AOA SUN THRU
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT.
HAVE OPTED TO WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE
SLOWER GFS FOR NOW. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT UTS/CXO/LBX THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE MINOR IMPACTS. UPPER SPEED MAX (90KTS) CAN BE TRACKED FROM AROUND
JCT TO GGG AND APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING WEAK LIFT FROM NEAR SAT TO
CLL WITH SOME SPRINKLES/-RA/DZ BUT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY BACK NEAR SAT. DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE AT
CLL/IAH AREAS BUT THIS ENTRANCE REGION WILL CERTAINLY AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
AGAIN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE COLD
FRONT WHAT IS LEFT OF IT MAY REACH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY.
45

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY THOUGH ONLY IN THE 10-15
KNOTS RANGE...SEAS ALSO LOWER AT 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS SETX/LA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ORLEANS WHICH IN TURNS SWINGS WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SCECS MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY SLOW
OR STALL IN SETX BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THE WINDS
BACK TO THE EAST.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  62  86 /  10  10  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  83  61  85 /   0  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  70  81  70  79 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230454
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. DEWPOINTS ARE
TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SO FOG THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT LBX
ALREADY NEAR ZERO HAVE TRENDED THEIR OVERNIGHT VSBYS DOWNWARD. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...NO CHANGES TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IF THERE IS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONLY
IMPACT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING BUT
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO STILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO KEPT FORECAST THE SAME AND ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230454
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. DEWPOINTS ARE
TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SO FOG THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT LBX
ALREADY NEAR ZERO HAVE TRENDED THEIR OVERNIGHT VSBYS DOWNWARD. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...NO CHANGES TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IF THERE IS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONLY
IMPACT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING BUT
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO STILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO KEPT FORECAST THE SAME AND ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
844 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...NO CHANGES TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IF THERE IS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONLY
IMPACT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING BUT
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO STILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO KEPT FORECAST THE SAME AND ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
844 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...NO CHANGES TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IF THERE IS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONLY
IMPACT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING BUT
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO STILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO KEPT FORECAST THE SAME AND ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 222326
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM CONUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE OF A MIDWESTERN
SURFACE RIDGE FILLING IN ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A NEW ENGLAND
NOR`EASTER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN NEEDED TO KEEP MEAN LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEW
POINTS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
NOW RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ASSERT A BIT OF AN
INFLUENCE UPON EASTERN TEXAS...IF NOTHING MORE THAN TO FORTIFY
PRECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MIX OUT WILL HAVE SURFACE
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO UNDER 50% THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PACIFIC NW
ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER AMPLIFIED WESTERN UPPER RIDGING WILL
DIVE DOWN AND DEEPEN A LATE WEEK MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH WHILE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CHAIN
OF EVENTS WILL AID IN VEERING EASTERLIES AROUND TO ONSHORE BY THE
COB SUNDAY. THE EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EQUATES TO
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AND MAKES THIS SET OF PRODUCTS PRIMARILY
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FORECASTS.

THE REGION MAY GET CLIPPED BY A THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS...IN
TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGING ENVELOPING TEXAS...WILL VEER MID-LEVEL
WINDS AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR WEST COMPONENT. FLATTENED MID-
UPPER RIDGING/NORTHERN GULF SURFACE HIGH...WITH WEAK ROCKY MOUNTAIN
TROUGHING...MAY VEER MID-LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO WARM
SUBSEQUENT DAYS BY A FEW DEGREES. 10-5H THICKNESS VALUES ARE
MODELED TO INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL 50 OR 60 METERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL REGULATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMTH...BUT HAVE INCREASED WEEKEND T NUMBERS BY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO SIDE WITH THE LOW STD DEV MEN NUMBERS.
EXTENDED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH/FROPA HAVE JUST KEPT SLIGHT OR
LOWER POPS IN GRIDS. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE FASTER MORE
SHALLOWER TROUGH PASSAGES (GFS) SO WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON WHEN TO
BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE DISCUSSION. 31

MARINE...
TD 9 LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE DEPRESSION
MOVES EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
06Z FOR MAINLY ELEVATED SEAS...BUT SEA HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DAMPEN OUT WITH TIME. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A
HALF FOOT OF NORMAL.

A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 222041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM CONUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE OF A MIDWESTERN
SURFACE RIDGE FILLING IN ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A NEW ENGLAND
NOR`EASTER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN NEEDED TO KEEP MEAN LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEW
POINTS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
NOW RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ASSERT A BIT OF AN
INFLUENCE UPON EASTERN TEXAS...IF NOTHING MORE THAN TO FORTIFY
PRECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MIX OUT WILL HAVE SURFACE
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO UNDER 50% THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PACIFIC NW
ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER AMPLIFIED WESTERN UPPER RIDGING WILL
DIVE DOWN AND DEEPEN A LATE WEEK MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH WHILE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CHAIN
OF EVENTS WILL AID IN VEERING EASTERLIES AROUND TO ONSHORE BY THE
COB SUNDAY. THE EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EQUATES TO
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AND MAKES THIS SET OF PRODUCTS PRIMARILY
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FORECASTS.

THE REGION MAY GET CLIPPED BY A THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS...IN
TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGING ENVELOPING TEXAS...WILL VEER MID-LEVEL
WINDS AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR WEST COMPONENT. FLATTENED MID-
UPPER RIDGING/NORTHERN GULF SURFACE HIGH...WITH WEAK ROCKY MOUNTAIN
TROUGHING...MAY VEER MID-LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO WARM
SUBSEQUENT DAYS BY A FEW DEGREES. 10-5H THICKNESS VALUES ARE
MODELED TO INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL 50 OR 60 METERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL REGULATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMTH...BUT HAVE INCREASED WEEKEND T NUMBERS BY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO SIDE WITH THE LOW STD DEV MEN NUMBERS.
EXTENDED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH/FROPA HAVE JUST KEPT SLIGHT OR
LOWER POPS IN GRIDS. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE FASTER MORE
SHALLOWER TROUGH PASSAGES (GFS) SO WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON WHEN TO
BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE DISCUSSION. 31

&&

.MARINE...
TD 9 LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE DEPRESSION
MOVES EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
06Z FOR MAINLY ELEVATED SEAS...BUT SEA HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DAMPEN OUT WITH TIME. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A
HALF FOOT OF NORMAL.

A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43/13





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