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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDING INTO BRAZORIA COUNTY. TODAY LOOKS TO
BE QUIETER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING
WHICH HAS CRESTED THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST. LOWER HEIGHTS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND THUS HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD. 38

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VARIABLE
WINDS (IN A 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE) ALONG WITH LOW SEAS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN/AROUND STORMS.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  75  94  72  91 /  10  10  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  75  94  76  90 /  20  10  20  40  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  89  80  88 /  20  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDING INTO BRAZORIA COUNTY. TODAY LOOKS TO
BE QUIETER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE SHORTWAVE OVER WYOMING
WHICH HAS CRESTED THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST. LOWER HEIGHTS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND THUS HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD. 38

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VARIABLE
WINDS (IN A 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE) ALONG WITH LOW SEAS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN/AROUND STORMS.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  75  94  72  91 /  10  10  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  75  94  76  90 /  20  10  20  40  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  89  80  88 /  20  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300443
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE MAP FROM THIS EVENING SHOWING MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LAYING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF KUTS AND KCLL. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO FIRE ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW CURRENTLY NEAR
KGLS AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THERE ALSO IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
QUICKLY CLOSING (ONE DEGREE AT KLBX). THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE AT KLBX AND KSGR WHERE SOME HEAVY RAIN FELL THIS
AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATED. AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CROCKETT-LIBERTY AREAS AND MAY HAVE
SOME VIRGA. TEMPERATURES FELL NICELY WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR FROM
THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. HOUSTON AREA GOT SOME RAIN WITH THE
AREAS FROM ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR GETTING THE MOST RAINFALL.
WEST SIDE...SOUTH MAYDE AT GREENHOUSE ROAD AT 1.72" AND NORTHEAST
LOOP AT HUNTING BAYOU AND LOCKWOOD DR 3.12". WITH THE RAIN COOLED
AIR T/TD SPREADS HAVE NARROWED DRAMATICALLY AND WITH SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT EXPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING/LIGHT-CALM WINDS/WET GROUND THAT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING FOR MOST OF THE RURAL AREAS BUT
THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED IN. GIVEN THE TROUGHING THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND GALVESTON AND SOUTHEASTWARD
AND COVERAGE MAY EXCEED ISOLATED IF THE ALREADY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
THERE DOESN`T DISSIPATE. SO MADE CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WHAT HELPED GET THINGS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL START
TO RETREAT AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WILL BE FROM DAY TIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.8" WHILE THE
NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.6". OVERALL
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A LOW COVERAGE DAY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS. STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO WITH DAY TIME HEATING. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE
LIKELY POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL
REGULATE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  97  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  77  96  75  95 /  40  10  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  80  87 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300443
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE MAP FROM THIS EVENING SHOWING MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LAYING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF KUTS AND KCLL. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO FIRE ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW CURRENTLY NEAR
KGLS AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THERE ALSO IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
QUICKLY CLOSING (ONE DEGREE AT KLBX). THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE AT KLBX AND KSGR WHERE SOME HEAVY RAIN FELL THIS
AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATED. AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CROCKETT-LIBERTY AREAS AND MAY HAVE
SOME VIRGA. TEMPERATURES FELL NICELY WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR FROM
THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. HOUSTON AREA GOT SOME RAIN WITH THE
AREAS FROM ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR GETTING THE MOST RAINFALL.
WEST SIDE...SOUTH MAYDE AT GREENHOUSE ROAD AT 1.72" AND NORTHEAST
LOOP AT HUNTING BAYOU AND LOCKWOOD DR 3.12". WITH THE RAIN COOLED
AIR T/TD SPREADS HAVE NARROWED DRAMATICALLY AND WITH SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT EXPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING/LIGHT-CALM WINDS/WET GROUND THAT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING FOR MOST OF THE RURAL AREAS BUT
THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED IN. GIVEN THE TROUGHING THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND GALVESTON AND SOUTHEASTWARD
AND COVERAGE MAY EXCEED ISOLATED IF THE ALREADY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
THERE DOESN`T DISSIPATE. SO MADE CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WHAT HELPED GET THINGS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL START
TO RETREAT AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WILL BE FROM DAY TIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.8" WHILE THE
NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.6". OVERALL
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A LOW COVERAGE DAY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS. STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO WITH DAY TIME HEATING. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE
LIKELY POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL
REGULATE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  97  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  77  96  75  95 /  40  10  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  80  87 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300225
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATED. AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CROCKETT-LIBERTY AREAS AND MAY HAVE
SOME VIRGA. TEMPERATURES FELL NICELY WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR FROM
THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. HOUSTON AREA GOT SOME RAIN WITH THE
AREAS FROM ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR GETTING THE MOST RAINFALL.
WEST SIDE...SOUTH MAYDE AT GREENHOUSE ROAD AT 1.72" AND NORTHEAST
LOOP AT HUNTING BAYOU AND LOCKWOOD DR 3.12". WITH THE RAIN COOLED
AIR T/TD SPREADS HAVE NARROWED DRAMATICALLY AND WITH SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT EXPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING/LIGHT-CALM WINDS/WET GROUND THAT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING FOR MOST OF THE RURAL AREAS BUT
THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED IN. GIVEN THE TROUGHING THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND GALVESTON AND SOUTHEASTWARD
AND COVERAGE MAY EXCEED ISOLATED IF THE ALREADY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
THERE DOESN`T DISSIPATE. SO MADE CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WHAT HELPED GET THINGS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL START
TO RETREAT AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WILL BE FROM DAY TIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.8" WHILE THE
NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.6". OVERALL
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A LOW COVERAGE DAY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS. STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO WITH DAY TIME HEATING. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE
LIKELY POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL
REGULATE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  97  74  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  75  95  77 /  10  30  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  87  80 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300225
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATED. AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CROCKETT-LIBERTY AREAS AND MAY HAVE
SOME VIRGA. TEMPERATURES FELL NICELY WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR FROM
THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. HOUSTON AREA GOT SOME RAIN WITH THE
AREAS FROM ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR GETTING THE MOST RAINFALL.
WEST SIDE...SOUTH MAYDE AT GREENHOUSE ROAD AT 1.72" AND NORTHEAST
LOOP AT HUNTING BAYOU AND LOCKWOOD DR 3.12". WITH THE RAIN COOLED
AIR T/TD SPREADS HAVE NARROWED DRAMATICALLY AND WITH SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT EXPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING/LIGHT-CALM WINDS/WET GROUND THAT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING FOR MOST OF THE RURAL AREAS BUT
THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED IN. GIVEN THE TROUGHING THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND GALVESTON AND SOUTHEASTWARD
AND COVERAGE MAY EXCEED ISOLATED IF THE ALREADY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
THERE DOESN`T DISSIPATE. SO MADE CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WHAT HELPED GET THINGS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL START
TO RETREAT AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WILL BE FROM DAY TIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.8" WHILE THE
NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.6". OVERALL
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A LOW COVERAGE DAY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS. STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO WITH DAY TIME HEATING. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE
LIKELY POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL
REGULATE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  97  74  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  75  95  77 /  10  30  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  87  80 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292335
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WHAT HELPED GET THINGS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL START
TO RETREAT AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WILL BE FROM DAY TIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.8" WHILE THE
NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.6". OVERALL
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A LOW COVERAGE DAY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS. STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO WITH DAY TIME HEATING. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE LIKELY
POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL REGULATE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  97  74  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  75  95  77 /  20  30  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  87  80 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292335
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WHAT HELPED GET THINGS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL START
TO RETREAT AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WILL BE FROM DAY TIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.8" WHILE THE
NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.6". OVERALL
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A LOW COVERAGE DAY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS. STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO WITH DAY TIME HEATING. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE LIKELY
POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL REGULATE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  97  74  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  75  95  77 /  20  30  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  87  80 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292035
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE LIKELY
POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL REGULATE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  97  74  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  75  95  77 /  20  30  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  87  80 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292035
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE LIKELY
POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL REGULATE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  97  74  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  75  95  77 /  20  30  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  87  80 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291734
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 17Z SURACE SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KCLL TO
KIAH TO THE COAST. RADAR ALSO SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...A
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 01Z. VFR IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR AT THE SITES OUTSIDE OF METRO HOUSTON.

THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AT KIAH.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN PROBS ARE ON THE RISE PER HIGHER REGIONAL MOISTURE...A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND FAIR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE. HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS/WESTERN LA IS WHERE THIS MORNING`S PRECIPITATION RESIDES...
EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOWERS WITH A NW GULF MCV (FROM OLD
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW) GENERATING FAR SE`ERN MARINE ZONE
THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
MET SHORTLY AFTER NOON SO EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ..RANDOM IN COVERAGE. EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER MAY END UP KEEPING MANY SITES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...VERSUS YESTERDAY WHERE MANY TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 90S. THE
WEEKLY TREND IS FOR MORE OVERCAST AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
REGULATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MAX/MIN NUMBERS CLOSER TO SEASON
NORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  77  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  90  81  91 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291734
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 17Z SURACE SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KCLL TO
KIAH TO THE COAST. RADAR ALSO SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...A
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 01Z. VFR IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR AT THE SITES OUTSIDE OF METRO HOUSTON.

THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AT KIAH.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN PROBS ARE ON THE RISE PER HIGHER REGIONAL MOISTURE...A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND FAIR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE. HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS/WESTERN LA IS WHERE THIS MORNING`S PRECIPITATION RESIDES...
EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOWERS WITH A NW GULF MCV (FROM OLD
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW) GENERATING FAR SE`ERN MARINE ZONE
THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
MET SHORTLY AFTER NOON SO EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ..RANDOM IN COVERAGE. EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER MAY END UP KEEPING MANY SITES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...VERSUS YESTERDAY WHERE MANY TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 90S. THE
WEEKLY TREND IS FOR MORE OVERCAST AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
REGULATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MAX/MIN NUMBERS CLOSER TO SEASON
NORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  77  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  90  81  91 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291556
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN PROBS ARE ON THE RISE PER HIGHER REGIONAL MOISTURE...A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND FAIR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE. HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS/WESTERN LA IS WHERE THIS MORNING`S PRECIPITATION RESIDES...
EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOWERS WITH A NW GULF MCV (FROM OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW) GENERATING FAR SE`ERN MARINE ZONE THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR 90F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SHORTLY AFTER NOON SO
EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
...RANDOM IN COVERAGE. EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER MAY END UP KEEPING
MANY SITES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...VERSUS YESTERDAY WHERE
MANY TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 90S. THE WEEKLY TREND IS FOR MORE
OVERCAST AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL REGULATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
MAX/MIN NUMBERS CLOSER TO SEASON NORMS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AFTER SOME MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TAFS HAVE A 19Z OR 20Z START TO THE CONVECTION...
ROUGHLY BETWEEN CXO AND GLS. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE. 42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR EAST HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
AND IS PUSHING OFF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES LEFTOVER FROM THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. FEEL
THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-103 THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH THIS MORNING
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEK AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD...DRIVING THE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW
APPEAR TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MODELS KEEPING SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS/SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  77  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  90  81  91 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291556
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN PROBS ARE ON THE RISE PER HIGHER REGIONAL MOISTURE...A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND FAIR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE. HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS/WESTERN LA IS WHERE THIS MORNING`S PRECIPITATION RESIDES...
EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOWERS WITH A NW GULF MCV (FROM OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW) GENERATING FAR SE`ERN MARINE ZONE THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR 90F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SHORTLY AFTER NOON SO
EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
...RANDOM IN COVERAGE. EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER MAY END UP KEEPING
MANY SITES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...VERSUS YESTERDAY WHERE
MANY TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 90S. THE WEEKLY TREND IS FOR MORE
OVERCAST AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL REGULATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
MAX/MIN NUMBERS CLOSER TO SEASON NORMS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AFTER SOME MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TAFS HAVE A 19Z OR 20Z START TO THE CONVECTION...
ROUGHLY BETWEEN CXO AND GLS. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE. 42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR EAST HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
AND IS PUSHING OFF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES LEFTOVER FROM THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. FEEL
THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-103 THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH THIS MORNING
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEK AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD...DRIVING THE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW
APPEAR TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MODELS KEEPING SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS/SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  77  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  90  81  91 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
AFTER SOME MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TAFS HAVE A 19Z OR 20Z START TO THE CONVECTION...
ROUGHLY BETWEEN CXO AND GLS. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE. 42 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR EAST HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
AND IS PUSHING OFF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES LEFTOVER FROM THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. FEEL
THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-103 THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH THIS MORNING
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEK AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD...DRIVING THE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW
APPEAR TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MODELS KEEPING SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS/SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  75  95  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  90  81  91 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
AFTER SOME MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TAFS HAVE A 19Z OR 20Z START TO THE CONVECTION...
ROUGHLY BETWEEN CXO AND GLS. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE. 42 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR EAST HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
AND IS PUSHING OFF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES LEFTOVER FROM THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. FEEL
THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-103 THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH THIS MORNING
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEK AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD...DRIVING THE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW
APPEAR TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MODELS KEEPING SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS/SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  75  95  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  90  81  91 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290913
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR EAST HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
AND IS PUSHING OFF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES LEFTOVER FROM THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. FEEL
THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-103 THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH THIS MORNING
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEK AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD...DRIVING THE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW
APPEAR TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MODELS KEEPING SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS/SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  75  95  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  90  81  91 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290913
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR EAST HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
AND IS PUSHING OFF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES LEFTOVER FROM THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. FEEL
THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-103 THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH THIS MORNING
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEK AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD...DRIVING THE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW
APPEAR TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MODELS KEEPING SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS/SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  75  95  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  90  81  91 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE DWH/IAH TERMINALS SHORTLY AND
SHOULD TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 5-10KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBY AT THE
CXO-UTS-CLL SITES AND FOG AT LBX. S/W RIDGING INCREASING OVER THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY STORMS REDEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT TSRA.
HAVE FOCUSED THE VCTS IN THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME TAPERING OFF TO VCSH
AS SEABREEZE SPREADS INLAND AND LL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE METRO AREA.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME TWEAKS TO THE GOING FCST FOR THIS UPDATE AS THE PCPN THAT
WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MOVED JUST EAST OF THE FA AND HAS
DISSIPATED. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES FOR THE REST
OF THE FCST ATTM. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  96  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  75  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  90  81 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290335 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1035 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME TWEAKS TO THE GOING FCST FOR THIS UPDATE AS THE PCPN THAT
WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MOVED JUST EAST OF THE FA AND HAS
DISSIPATED. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES FOR THE REST
OF THE FCST ATTM. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  96  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  75  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  90  81 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290335 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1035 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME TWEAKS TO THE GOING FCST FOR THIS UPDATE AS THE PCPN THAT
WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MOVED JUST EAST OF THE FA AND HAS
DISSIPATED. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES FOR THE REST
OF THE FCST ATTM. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  96  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  75  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  90  81 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290121
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
821 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVED OFF
THE BOUNDARY AND HAS SWUNG WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT DKR-LFK WITH
OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO CLL AREA AND NEARING UTS BUT
SLOWING. STORMS WEAKENING AND HEADED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TX/LA
BORDER. EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY END UP L/V
BY MORNING EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE W OR EVEN NW WINDS WILL
RETURN. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN DECREASING.
SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 10Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS CXO NORTHWARD AND PATCHY FOG AT SGR/LBX. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WAFFLES AROUND TUESDAY GENERALLY FROM CLL-CXO-BPT AND
MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. HARD TO
PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMES YET OTHER THAN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED AROUND 20Z.
45

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG IT OVER SJT AND FWD`S FORECAST AREAS.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHETHER THERE IS AN EXISTING PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN WACO AND THE DFW METROPLEX. NWP ENSEMBLE BACKS THE 594
DAM RIDGE OFF AND CENTERS OVER THE BIG BEND/DESERT SW BY LATE
TUESDAY. WITH A PREDOMINANT NW MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE
WESTERN LEG OF THE DEVELOPING EASTERN CANADA/EASTERN CONUS
TROF...THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY SAG INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF COLD POOLS PROPAGATING FROM NE TX STORMS) WILL
PROVIDE THE REQUIRED FOCUS/LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING EARLY TO MID
DAY CONVECTION. THE SCENE WILL BECOME A BIT MUDDLED FROM TOMORROW
ON THROUGH THURSDAY AS DAILY CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR WILL STRICTLY BE
DRIVEN IN THE SMALLER MESO/MICRO SCALE(S). MORE OVERCAST AND
FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AID IN REGULATING LATE WEEK DAILY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMA INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

BY THURSDAY...RELATIVELY DRIER MID-WEEK PROFILES WILL SATURATE UP
TO PAST 2 INCH PWATS AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE VERY DIFFUSE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL WAVER SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND BE DEPENDENT UPON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
AS OF NOW...THE HIGHER PVA AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELS (SLIGHTLY
BETTER DIFFLUENCE)...PEG THU/FRI AS THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROB DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF A NEAR-COASTAL WEAK SURFACE (INVERTED) TROUGH.
AGAIN...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SMALLER SCALE SO
TIMING WILL NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED ON A MOVING SCALE. THE LARGE
SCALE/BACKGROUND APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WET MID TO LATE WEEK
..FROM THE NEAR-SATURATED UNSTABLE PROG SOUNDINGS TO THE BETTER
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. 31

MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL KEEP ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS BY
AROUND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. ANY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
SWING BACK AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  96  74 /  30  30  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  75  95  75 /  30  30  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290121
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
821 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVED OFF
THE BOUNDARY AND HAS SWUNG WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT DKR-LFK WITH
OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO CLL AREA AND NEARING UTS BUT
SLOWING. STORMS WEAKENING AND HEADED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TX/LA
BORDER. EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY END UP L/V
BY MORNING EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE W OR EVEN NW WINDS WILL
RETURN. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN DECREASING.
SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 10Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS CXO NORTHWARD AND PATCHY FOG AT SGR/LBX. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WAFFLES AROUND TUESDAY GENERALLY FROM CLL-CXO-BPT AND
MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. HARD TO
PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMES YET OTHER THAN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED AROUND 20Z.
45

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG IT OVER SJT AND FWD`S FORECAST AREAS.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHETHER THERE IS AN EXISTING PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN WACO AND THE DFW METROPLEX. NWP ENSEMBLE BACKS THE 594
DAM RIDGE OFF AND CENTERS OVER THE BIG BEND/DESERT SW BY LATE
TUESDAY. WITH A PREDOMINANT NW MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE
WESTERN LEG OF THE DEVELOPING EASTERN CANADA/EASTERN CONUS
TROF...THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY SAG INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF COLD POOLS PROPAGATING FROM NE TX STORMS) WILL
PROVIDE THE REQUIRED FOCUS/LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING EARLY TO MID
DAY CONVECTION. THE SCENE WILL BECOME A BIT MUDDLED FROM TOMORROW
ON THROUGH THURSDAY AS DAILY CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR WILL STRICTLY BE
DRIVEN IN THE SMALLER MESO/MICRO SCALE(S). MORE OVERCAST AND
FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AID IN REGULATING LATE WEEK DAILY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMA INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

BY THURSDAY...RELATIVELY DRIER MID-WEEK PROFILES WILL SATURATE UP
TO PAST 2 INCH PWATS AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE VERY DIFFUSE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL WAVER SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND BE DEPENDENT UPON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
AS OF NOW...THE HIGHER PVA AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELS (SLIGHTLY
BETTER DIFFLUENCE)...PEG THU/FRI AS THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROB DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF A NEAR-COASTAL WEAK SURFACE (INVERTED) TROUGH.
AGAIN...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SMALLER SCALE SO
TIMING WILL NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED ON A MOVING SCALE. THE LARGE
SCALE/BACKGROUND APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WET MID TO LATE WEEK
..FROM THE NEAR-SATURATED UNSTABLE PROG SOUNDINGS TO THE BETTER
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. 31

MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL KEEP ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS BY
AROUND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. ANY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
SWING BACK AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  96  74 /  30  30  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  75  95  75 /  30  30  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 282055
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG IT OVER SJT AND FWD`S FORECAST AREAS.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHETHER THERE IS AN EXISTING PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN WACO AND THE DFW METROPLEX. NWP ENSEMBLE BACKS THE 594
DAM RIDGE OFF AND CENTERS OVER THE BIG BEND/DESERT SW BY LATE
TUESDAY. WITH A PREDOMINANT NW MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE
WESTERN LEG OF THE DEVELOPING EASTERN CANADA/EASTERN CONUS
TROF...THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY SAG INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF COLD POOLS PROPAGATING FROM NE TX STORMS) WILL
PROVIDE THE REQUIRED FOCUS/LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING EARLY TO MID
DAY CONVECTION. THE SCENE WILL BECOME A BIT MUDDLED FROM TOMORROW
ON THROUGH THURSDAY AS DAILY CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR WILL STRICTLY BE
DRIVEN IN THE SMALLER MESO/MICRO SCALE(S). MORE OVERCAST AND
FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AID IN REGULATING LATE WEEK DAILY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMA INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

BY THURSDAY...RELATIVELY DRIER MID-WEEK PROFILES WILL SATURATE UP
TO PAST 2 INCH PWATS AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE VERY DIFFUSE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL WAVER SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND BE DEPENDENT UPON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
AS OF NOW...THE HIGHER PVA AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELS (SLIGHTLY
BETTER DIFFULENCE)...PEG THU/FRI AS THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROB DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF A NEAR-COASTAL WEAK SURFACE (INVERTED) TROUGH.
AGAIN...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SMALLER SCALE SO
TIMING WILL NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED ON A MOVING SCALE. THE LARGE
SCALE/BACKGROUND APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WET MID TO LATE WEEK
...FROM THE NEAR-SATURATED UNSTABLE PROG SOUNDINGS TO THE BETTER
UPPER DIFFULENCE. 31

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL KEEP ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS BY
AROUND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. ANY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
SWING BACK AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  96  74 /  30  30  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  75  95  75 /  30  30  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282055
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG IT OVER SJT AND FWD`S FORECAST AREAS.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHETHER THERE IS AN EXISTING PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN WACO AND THE DFW METROPLEX. NWP ENSEMBLE BACKS THE 594
DAM RIDGE OFF AND CENTERS OVER THE BIG BEND/DESERT SW BY LATE
TUESDAY. WITH A PREDOMINANT NW MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE
WESTERN LEG OF THE DEVELOPING EASTERN CANADA/EASTERN CONUS
TROF...THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY SAG INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF COLD POOLS PROPAGATING FROM NE TX STORMS) WILL
PROVIDE THE REQUIRED FOCUS/LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING EARLY TO MID
DAY CONVECTION. THE SCENE WILL BECOME A BIT MUDDLED FROM TOMORROW
ON THROUGH THURSDAY AS DAILY CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR WILL STRICTLY BE
DRIVEN IN THE SMALLER MESO/MICRO SCALE(S). MORE OVERCAST AND
FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AID IN REGULATING LATE WEEK DAILY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMA INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

BY THURSDAY...RELATIVELY DRIER MID-WEEK PROFILES WILL SATURATE UP
TO PAST 2 INCH PWATS AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE VERY DIFFUSE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL WAVER SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND BE DEPENDENT UPON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
AS OF NOW...THE HIGHER PVA AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELS (SLIGHTLY
BETTER DIFFULENCE)...PEG THU/FRI AS THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROB DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF A NEAR-COASTAL WEAK SURFACE (INVERTED) TROUGH.
AGAIN...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SMALLER SCALE SO
TIMING WILL NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED ON A MOVING SCALE. THE LARGE
SCALE/BACKGROUND APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WET MID TO LATE WEEK
...FROM THE NEAR-SATURATED UNSTABLE PROG SOUNDINGS TO THE BETTER
UPPER DIFFULENCE. 31

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL KEEP ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS BY
AROUND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. ANY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
SWING BACK AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  96  74 /  30  30  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  75  95  75 /  30  30  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 281752
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MORE RURAL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 17Z TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AFTER 09Z. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR KIAH ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
DUE MAINLY TO THE FORECASTED POSITION OF THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...INITIALIZING WESTERN OKLAHOMA CONVECTION. EARLY
MORNING NWP SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS A PRETTY SHALLOW BOUNDARY AND HAVE
IT SLOWLY SAGGING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS THE GRIP OVER
US AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AREA CONVECTION
WOULD BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM MORE MESO-DRIVEN PROCESSES
SUCH AS PINEY WOODS THUNDERSTORM COOL POOL/GUST FRONT TRIGGERS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
TO SLIP INTO THE CWA TOMORROW SO...IF ANY UPSTREAM S/W DISTURBANCE
DOES TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
..RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE RISE. AN EARLY DAY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE...WITH A JUST A SCATTERED CU DECK...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH TODAY`S INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...
LOW 90S AT THE COAST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN FALL WITHIN
THAT 99 TO 104 F RANGE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  75  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  95  75  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281752
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MORE RURAL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 17Z TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AFTER 09Z. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR KIAH ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
DUE MAINLY TO THE FORECASTED POSITION OF THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...INITIALIZING WESTERN OKLAHOMA CONVECTION. EARLY
MORNING NWP SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS A PRETTY SHALLOW BOUNDARY AND HAVE
IT SLOWLY SAGGING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS THE GRIP OVER
US AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AREA CONVECTION
WOULD BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM MORE MESO-DRIVEN PROCESSES
SUCH AS PINEY WOODS THUNDERSTORM COOL POOL/GUST FRONT TRIGGERS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
TO SLIP INTO THE CWA TOMORROW SO...IF ANY UPSTREAM S/W DISTURBANCE
DOES TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
..RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE RISE. AN EARLY DAY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE...WITH A JUST A SCATTERED CU DECK...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH TODAY`S INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...
LOW 90S AT THE COAST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN FALL WITHIN
THAT 99 TO 104 F RANGE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  75  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  95  75  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 281558
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...INITIALIZING WESTERN OKLAHOMA CONVECTION. EARLY
MORNING NWP SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS A PRETTY SHALLOW BOUNDARY AND HAVE
IT SLOWLY SAGGING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS THE GRIP OVER
US AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AREA CONVECTION
WOULD BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM MORE MESO-DRIVEN PROCESSES
SUCH AS PINEY WOODS THUNDERSTORM COOL POOL/GUST FRONT TRIGGERS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
TO SLIP INTO THE CWA TOMORROW SO...IF ANY UPSTREAM S/W DISTURBANCE
DOES TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
...RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE RISE. AN EARLY DAY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE...WITH A JUST A SCATTERED CU DECK...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH TODAY`S INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...
LOW 90S AT THE COAST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN FALL WITHIN
THAT 99 TO 104 F RANGE. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY WILL BOUNCE AROUND 1 MILE TO 1/4 MILE IN MOST AREAS SW
OF HOUSTON DUE TO FOG SO ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. 39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

AVIATION...
CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CLL EARLY
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT SGR AND LBX. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SAGS
SOUTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR CLL/UTS
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT. 38

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. 39

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  75  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  95  75  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 281558
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...INITIALIZING WESTERN OKLAHOMA CONVECTION. EARLY
MORNING NWP SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS A PRETTY SHALLOW BOUNDARY AND HAVE
IT SLOWLY SAGGING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS THE GRIP OVER
US AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AREA CONVECTION
WOULD BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM MORE MESO-DRIVEN PROCESSES
SUCH AS PINEY WOODS THUNDERSTORM COOL POOL/GUST FRONT TRIGGERS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
TO SLIP INTO THE CWA TOMORROW SO...IF ANY UPSTREAM S/W DISTURBANCE
DOES TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
...RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE RISE. AN EARLY DAY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE...WITH A JUST A SCATTERED CU DECK...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH TODAY`S INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...
LOW 90S AT THE COAST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN FALL WITHIN
THAT 99 TO 104 F RANGE. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG.

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY WILL BOUNCE AROUND 1 MILE TO 1/4 MILE IN MOST AREAS SW
OF HOUSTON DUE TO FOG SO ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. 39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

AVIATION...
CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CLL EARLY
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT SGR AND LBX. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SAGS
SOUTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR CLL/UTS
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT. 38

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. 39

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  75  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  95  75  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281220
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY WILL BOUNCE AROUND 1 MILE TO 1/4 MILE IN MOST AREAS SW
OF HOUSTON DUE TO FOG SO ISSED DENSE FOG ADVSIORY FOR NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

AVIATION...
CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CLL EARLY
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT SGR AND LBX. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SAGS
SOUTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR CLL/UTS
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  76  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281220
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY WILL BOUNCE AROUND 1 MILE TO 1/4 MILE IN MOST AREAS SW
OF HOUSTON DUE TO FOG SO ISSED DENSE FOG ADVSIORY FOR NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

AVIATION...
CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CLL EARLY
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT SGR AND LBX. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SAGS
SOUTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR CLL/UTS
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  76  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 281142
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CLL EARLY
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT SGR AND LBX. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SAGS
SOUTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR CLL/UTS
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  76  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281142
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CLL EARLY
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT SGR AND LBX. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SAGS
SOUTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR CLL/UTS
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  76  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 280920
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PREICP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  76  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 280920
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PREICP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  76  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 280446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLL AREA WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW MORNING
BACKS WITH THE SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING. COLD FRONT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WILL SAG SOUTH MONDAY AND LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
ABOUT PUSHING THE FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA AND BY 06Z
MAY REACH TO A CLL-CXO-BPT LINE. DOUBTING IT WILL GET THIS FAR BUT
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 TO THE TERMINALS CLL/UTS WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE BOUNDARY AFTER 03Z.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST FOR THE UPDATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TO KEEP THINGS QUIET OVER SE TX THIS EVEN-
ING (AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT). 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  74  94  74 /  10  20  30  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  89  81 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 280446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLL AREA WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW MORNING
BACKS WITH THE SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING. COLD FRONT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WILL SAG SOUTH MONDAY AND LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
ABOUT PUSHING THE FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA AND BY 06Z
MAY REACH TO A CLL-CXO-BPT LINE. DOUBTING IT WILL GET THIS FAR BUT
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 TO THE TERMINALS CLL/UTS WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE BOUNDARY AFTER 03Z.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST FOR THE UPDATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TO KEEP THINGS QUIET OVER SE TX THIS EVEN-
ING (AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT). 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  74  94  74 /  10  20  30  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  89  81 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 280342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1042 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST FOR THE UPDATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TO KEEP THINGS QUIET OVER SE TX THIS EVEN-
ING (AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SEABREEZE JUST MOVED
THROUGH IAH WITH GUSTY SE WINDS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS
TO RELAX THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR CLL AND MAYBE
EVEN UTS. TOMORROW MORNING WSW TO SW WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH
HEATING. SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SHRA. MID SUMMER COLD FRONT GETS A SOUTHWARD NUDGE LATE
MONDAY AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WELL TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BUT NW-N FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE EVENING MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS AS PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  74  94  74 /  10  20  30  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  89  81 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 280342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1042 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST FOR THE UPDATE. DRIER AIR ALOFT
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TO KEEP THINGS QUIET OVER SE TX THIS EVEN-
ING (AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SEABREEZE JUST MOVED
THROUGH IAH WITH GUSTY SE WINDS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS
TO RELAX THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR CLL AND MAYBE
EVEN UTS. TOMORROW MORNING WSW TO SW WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH
HEATING. SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SHRA. MID SUMMER COLD FRONT GETS A SOUTHWARD NUDGE LATE
MONDAY AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WELL TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BUT NW-N FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE EVENING MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS AS PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  74  94  74 /  10  20  30  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  89  81 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 272355
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...
CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SEABREEZE JUST MOVED
THROUGH IAH WITH GUSTY SE WINDS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS
TO RELAX THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR CLL AND MAYBE
EVEN UTS. TOMORROW MORNING WSW TO SW WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH
HEATING. SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SHRA. MID SUMMER COLD FRONT GETS A SOUTHWARD NUDGE LATE
MONDAY AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WELL TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BUT NW-N FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE EVENING MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS AS PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND HOT LATE JULY DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
UNDER A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S ARE PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104F RANGE SO THE
DISCUSSION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN HELD AT BAY. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD UPON A SLOW
SOUTHERN-ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE PINEY WOODS TOMORROW AND...WITH HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S
..SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES...OR MAYBE EVEN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING A SLUGGISH SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DAILY INITIALIZATION OF DISCRETE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING DOWN ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF A LARGE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/EASTERN EDGE OF GREAT BASIN
RIDGE WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY LIES AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK...NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR
MASS WILL POOL OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SPELLS DIURNAL-DRIVEN REPEAT PRECIPITATION EPISODES THROUGH LATE
WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL STEERING FLOW...SLOW-MOVING
POCKETS OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAY DOWN ENOUGH RAIN TO
INDUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER THAN THE REGION (SANS
THE COAST) REMAINING AT NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL GOING INTO EARLY
AUGUST...THE UP SIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURE
EXTREMA PER A WET GROUND AND OVERCAST SKIES. 31

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  74  94  74 /  10  20  30  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  89  81 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 272355
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...
CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SEABREEZE JUST MOVED
THROUGH IAH WITH GUSTY SE WINDS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS
TO RELAX THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR CLL AND MAYBE
EVEN UTS. TOMORROW MORNING WSW TO SW WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH
HEATING. SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SHRA. MID SUMMER COLD FRONT GETS A SOUTHWARD NUDGE LATE
MONDAY AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WELL TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BUT NW-N FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE EVENING MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS AS PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND HOT LATE JULY DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
UNDER A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S ARE PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104F RANGE SO THE
DISCUSSION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN HELD AT BAY. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD UPON A SLOW
SOUTHERN-ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE PINEY WOODS TOMORROW AND...WITH HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S
..SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES...OR MAYBE EVEN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING A SLUGGISH SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DAILY INITIALIZATION OF DISCRETE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING DOWN ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF A LARGE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/EASTERN EDGE OF GREAT BASIN
RIDGE WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY LIES AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK...NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR
MASS WILL POOL OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SPELLS DIURNAL-DRIVEN REPEAT PRECIPITATION EPISODES THROUGH LATE
WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL STEERING FLOW...SLOW-MOVING
POCKETS OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAY DOWN ENOUGH RAIN TO
INDUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER THAN THE REGION (SANS
THE COAST) REMAINING AT NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL GOING INTO EARLY
AUGUST...THE UP SIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURE
EXTREMA PER A WET GROUND AND OVERCAST SKIES. 31

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  74  94  74 /  10  20  30  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  89  81 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 272059
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND HOT LATE JULY DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
UNDER A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S ARE PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104F RANGE SO THE
DISCUSSION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN HELD AT BAY. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD UPON A SLOW
SOUTHERN-ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE PINEY WOODS TOMORROW AND...WITH HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S
...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES...OR MAYBE EVEN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING A SLUGGISH SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DAILY INITIALIZATION OF DISCRETE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING DOWN ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF A LARGE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/EASTERN EDGE OF GREAT BASIN
RIDGE WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY LIES AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK...NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR
MASS WILL POOL OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SPELLS DIURNAL-DRIVEN REPEAT PRECIPITATION EPISODES THROUGH LATE
WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL STEERING FLOW...SLOW-MOVING
POCKETS OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAY DOWN ENOUGH RAIN TO
INDUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER THAN THE REGION (SANS
THE COAST) REMAINING AT NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL GOING INTO EARLY
AUGUST...THE UP SIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURE
EXTREMA PER A WET GROUND AND OVERCAST SKIES. 31

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  74  94  74 /  10  20  30  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  89  81 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 271638
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM YESTERDAY AND CU FIELD CONSIDERABLY
LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER COLUMN WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. ONLY THE HRRR IS SHOWING PCPN ON THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTN. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS SO WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF VCSH. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCXO AND KLBX. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED GULF SHOWERS...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET MORNING
PRECIPITATION-WISE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DRY AND HOT DAY
AS 5H RIDGING HAS NOW ENVELOPED THE REGION. LOWER LAYERS ARE
ADVECTING IN A DRIER AIR MASS UPON WARMER SOUTHWESTERLIES WHILE
UPPER LAYER FLOW IS DRAWING IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
THIS TEAMING OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL EQUATE TO A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY DAY AS MANY INTERIOR TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S...AROUND 90F AT COAST...WITH AN EARLY DAY SOUTHWEST BREEZE
BACKING SOUTHERLY AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 90F. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA...PRECIP
WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST MOISTURE ALONG
THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE S
PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  76  96  76  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 271638
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM YESTERDAY AND CU FIELD CONSIDERABLY
LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER COLUMN WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. ONLY THE HRRR IS SHOWING PCPN ON THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTN. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS SO WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF VCSH. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCXO AND KLBX. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED GULF SHOWERS...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET MORNING
PRECIPITATION-WISE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DRY AND HOT DAY
AS 5H RIDGING HAS NOW ENVELOPED THE REGION. LOWER LAYERS ARE
ADVECTING IN A DRIER AIR MASS UPON WARMER SOUTHWESTERLIES WHILE
UPPER LAYER FLOW IS DRAWING IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
THIS TEAMING OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL EQUATE TO A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY DAY AS MANY INTERIOR TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S...AROUND 90F AT COAST...WITH AN EARLY DAY SOUTHWEST BREEZE
BACKING SOUTHERLY AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 90F. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA...PRECIP
WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST MOISTURE ALONG
THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE S
PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  76  96  76  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 271423
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
923 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED GULF SHOWERS...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET MORNING
PRECIPITATION-WISE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DRY AND HOT DAY
AS 5H RIDGING HAS NOW ENVELOPED THE REGION. LOWER LAYERS ARE
ADVECTING IN A DRIER AIR MASS UPON WARMER SOUTHWESTERLIES WHILE
UPPER LAYER FLOW IS DRAWING IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
THIS TEAMING OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL EQUATE TO A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY DAY AS MANY INTERIOR TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S...AROUND 90F AT COAST...WITH AN EARLY DAY SOUTHWEST BREEZE
BACKING SOUTHERLY AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 90F. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR GALVESTON BAY BY MID-AFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. 38

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA...PRECIP
WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST MOISTURE ALONG
THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE S
PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 39

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  76  96  76  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 271423
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
923 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED GULF SHOWERS...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET MORNING
PRECIPITATION-WISE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DRY AND HOT DAY
AS 5H RIDGING HAS NOW ENVELOPED THE REGION. LOWER LAYERS ARE
ADVECTING IN A DRIER AIR MASS UPON WARMER SOUTHWESTERLIES WHILE
UPPER LAYER FLOW IS DRAWING IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
THIS TEAMING OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL EQUATE TO A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY DAY AS MANY INTERIOR TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S...AROUND 90F AT COAST...WITH AN EARLY DAY SOUTHWEST BREEZE
BACKING SOUTHERLY AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 90F. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR GALVESTON BAY BY MID-AFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. 38

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA...PRECIP
WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST MOISTURE ALONG
THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE S
PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 39

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  76  96  76  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 271126
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR GALVESTON BAY BY MIDAFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK
PANHANDLES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER
DATA...PRECIP WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE S PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  77  96  76  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 271126
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR GALVESTON BAY BY MIDAFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK
PANHANDLES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER
DATA...PRECIP WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE S PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  77  96  76  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




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