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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200024 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
724 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OFF THE
COAST...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM OF THE COAST WEST OF FREEPORT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF
THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 200024
AFDHGX
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
724 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OFF THE
COAST...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM OF THE COAST WEST OF FREEPORT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF
THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39






000
FXUS64 KHGX 200024
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
724 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OFF THE
COAST...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM OF THE COAST WEST OF FREEPORT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AND UPDATE LATER IF NEEDED.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 200024
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
724 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OFF THE
COAST...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM OF THE COAST WEST OF FREEPORT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AND UPDATE LATER IF NEEDED.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 200024 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
724 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OFF THE
COAST...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM OF THE COAST WEST OF FREEPORT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF
THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 192317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 192317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 192317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 192037
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 192037
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 191726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
17Z SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCT/BKN 6000 FOOT CLOUDS
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SW ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME SCT/BKN 2000-3000
FOOT CLOUDS IN AND AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. PLANNING ON KEEPING 18Z TAFS VFR IN ANTICIPATION
OF THE DRIER AIR MASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES (WHERE IT
IS SKC) FILTERING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STRETCHING WEST TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE ONLY FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE TO OFFSHORE WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  71  82  71  82 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 191726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
17Z SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCT/BKN 6000 FOOT CLOUDS
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SW ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME SCT/BKN 2000-3000
FOOT CLOUDS IN AND AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. PLANNING ON KEEPING 18Z TAFS VFR IN ANTICIPATION
OF THE DRIER AIR MASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES (WHERE IT
IS SKC) FILTERING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STRETCHING WEST TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE ONLY FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE TO OFFSHORE WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  71  82  71  82 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 191542
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1042 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STRETCHING WEST TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE ONLY FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE TO OFFSHORE WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  71  82  71  82 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190924
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THRU ABOUT THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA. WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE COUNTIES AIRMASS AHEAD &
BEHIND THE FRONT GETTING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH. MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLATED PRECIP A POSSIBILITY GENERALLY
SSW OF A COLUMBUS-GALVESTON LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
OVERALL THEY`VE BEEN OVERDOING COVERAGE AND ATMOS REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY SO THINK 20% POPS ARE PLENTY ADEQUATE ATTM.

PLEASANT WX EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO E TX COMBINED W/ BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN A ENE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK - EFFECTIVELY LIMITING INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FCST THUR/FRI. MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS SHOW
A RIDGE AMPLIFYING FROM MEXICO NWD THRU THE ROCKIES AND A
TROF/SHORTWAVE DIGGING SSE FROM THE PLAINS INTO E TX OR LA. ECMWF
STILL CUTTING OFF A LOW BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER EWD (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS) TRACK THAN YDAYS RUN. IT`S POSITIONING WOULD STILL BE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT SE TX WX/TEMPS DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL
MOISTURE PROFILE. IN THAT REGARD...WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE THAT THE
DRIER SOLN WOULD BE THE WAY TO GO CONSIDERING GULF MOSTLY BEING
SHUTOFF DURING THE WEEK. THAT`S THE WAY THE FCST IS CURRENTLY
TRENDED AND WILL CONTINUE THAT ROUTE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SOME BETTER
CONFIDENCE HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. PRELIMINARY LOOK AT NEXT
WEEKEND WX LOOKS DRY AS TROF/LOW AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT E/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EX-
PECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH LEVELS
POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY/CAUTION LEVELS BY MID WEEK OR SO. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  71  82  71  82 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190924
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THRU ABOUT THE NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE CWA. WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE COUNTIES AIRMASS AHEAD &
BEHIND THE FRONT GETTING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH. MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLATED PRECIP A POSSIBILITY GENERALLY
SSW OF A COLUMBUS-GALVESTON LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
OVERALL THEY`VE BEEN OVERDOING COVERAGE AND ATMOS REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY SO THINK 20% POPS ARE PLENTY ADEQUATE ATTM.

PLEASANT WX EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO E TX COMBINED W/ BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN A ENE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK - EFFECTIVELY LIMITING INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FCST THUR/FRI. MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS SHOW
A RIDGE AMPLIFYING FROM MEXICO NWD THRU THE ROCKIES AND A
TROF/SHORTWAVE DIGGING SSE FROM THE PLAINS INTO E TX OR LA. ECMWF
STILL CUTTING OFF A LOW BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER EWD (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS) TRACK THAN YDAYS RUN. IT`S POSITIONING WOULD STILL BE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT SE TX WX/TEMPS DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL
MOISTURE PROFILE. IN THAT REGARD...WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE THAT THE
DRIER SOLN WOULD BE THE WAY TO GO CONSIDERING GULF MOSTLY BEING
SHUTOFF DURING THE WEEK. THAT`S THE WAY THE FCST IS CURRENTLY
TRENDED AND WILL CONTINUE THAT ROUTE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SOME BETTER
CONFIDENCE HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. PRELIMINARY LOOK AT NEXT
WEEKEND WX LOOKS DRY AS TROF/LOW AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT E/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EX-
PECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH LEVELS
POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY/CAUTION LEVELS BY MID WEEK OR SO. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  71  82  71  82 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190214
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE TX WAS
LOCATED AT 7 PM ALONG OR NEAR A LINE FROM KBPT TO KIAH TO K66R
/COLUMBUS/. SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WERE OCCURRING OVER JACKSON
AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVED SOUTH AS WELL.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT SOUTH
OF THE INLAND COUNTIES BUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

UPDATED RAIN CHANCES AND WEATHER TYPE FOR TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL EXPECTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KCXO/KLBX SO
LIKE 6SM MIFG FOR THOSE TAFS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS BETWEEN
GALVESTON BAY AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA. STILL WAITING TO SEE
IF ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS UP NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE.
FOR NOW...STICKING WITH THE DRY FORECAST UP THERE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTS. BECOMING A TAD LESS CONFIDENT ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
AND ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES.  42

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS FLOW PERSISTS TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL BUILD
TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY
FLAGS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190214
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE TX WAS
LOCATED AT 7 PM ALONG OR NEAR A LINE FROM KBPT TO KIAH TO K66R
/COLUMBUS/. SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WERE OCCURRING OVER JACKSON
AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVED SOUTH AS WELL.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT SOUTH
OF THE INLAND COUNTIES BUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

UPDATED RAIN CHANCES AND WEATHER TYPE FOR TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL EXPECTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KCXO/KLBX SO
LIKE 6SM MIFG FOR THOSE TAFS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS BETWEEN
GALVESTON BAY AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA. STILL WAITING TO SEE
IF ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS UP NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE.
FOR NOW...STICKING WITH THE DRY FORECAST UP THERE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTS. BECOMING A TAD LESS CONFIDENT ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
AND ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES.  42

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS FLOW PERSISTS TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL BUILD
TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY
FLAGS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 182341
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL EXPECTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KCXO/KLBX SO
LIKE 6SM MIFG FOR THOSE TAFS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS BETWEEN
GALVESTON BAY AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA. STILL WAITING TO SEE
IF ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS UP NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE.
FOR NOW...STICKING WITH THE DRY FORECAST UP THERE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTS. BECOMING A TAD LESS CONFIDENT ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
AND ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES.  42

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS FLOW PERSISTS TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL BUILD
TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY
FLAGS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 182341
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL EXPECTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KCXO/KLBX SO
LIKE 6SM MIFG FOR THOSE TAFS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS BETWEEN
GALVESTON BAY AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA. STILL WAITING TO SEE
IF ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS UP NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE.
FOR NOW...STICKING WITH THE DRY FORECAST UP THERE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTS. BECOMING A TAD LESS CONFIDENT ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
AND ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES.  42

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS FLOW PERSISTS TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL BUILD
TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY
FLAGS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 182049
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS BETWEEN
GALVESTON BAY AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA. STILL WAITING TO SEE
IF ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS UP NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE.
FOR NOW...STICKING WITH THE DRY FORECAST UP THERE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTS. BECOMING A TAD LESS CONFIDENT ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
AND ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES.  42
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS FLOW PERSISTS TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL BUILD
TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY
FLAGS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 182049
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS BETWEEN
GALVESTON BAY AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA. STILL WAITING TO SEE
IF ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS UP NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE.
FOR NOW...STICKING WITH THE DRY FORECAST UP THERE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTS. BECOMING A TAD LESS CONFIDENT ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
AND ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES.  42
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS FLOW PERSISTS TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL BUILD
TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY
FLAGS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181730
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP THIS MORNING BETWEEN
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA WHERE THE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOCATED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE LOCATIONS
COVERED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO
ADJUST THE NUMBERS THAT ARE ALREADY THERE.

HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
IN OUR AREA. MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR THE AREA WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41


AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181730
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP THIS MORNING BETWEEN
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA WHERE THE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOCATED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE LOCATIONS
COVERED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO
ADJUST THE NUMBERS THAT ARE ALREADY THERE.

HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
IN OUR AREA. MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR THE AREA WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41


AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP THIS MORNING BETWEEN
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA WHERE THE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOCATED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE LOCATIONS
COVERED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO
ADJUST THE NUMBERS THAT ARE ALREADY THERE.

HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
IN OUR AREA. MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR THE AREA WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41


AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  62  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  63  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  70  80  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP THIS MORNING BETWEEN
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA WHERE THE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOCATED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE LOCATIONS
COVERED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO
ADJUST THE NUMBERS THAT ARE ALREADY THERE.

HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
IN OUR AREA. MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR THE AREA WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41


AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  62  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  63  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  70  80  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP THIS MORNING BETWEEN
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA WHERE THE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOCATED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE LOCATIONS
COVERED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO
ADJUST THE NUMBERS THAT ARE ALREADY THERE.

HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
IN OUR AREA. MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR THE AREA WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41


AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  62  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  63  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  70  80  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 181550
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP THIS MORNING BETWEEN
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA WHERE THE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOCATED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE LOCATIONS
COVERED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...AND SEE NO REASON TO
ADJUST THE NUMBERS THAT ARE ALREADY THERE.

HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
IN OUR AREA. MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR THE AREA WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41


AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  62  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  63  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  70  80  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180910
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41

&&

.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  62  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  63  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  70  80  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180910
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
UP THE WRN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE TX COASTS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING SOME 1-1.3" PWS POOLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO N TX & LA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE ENE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIER AIR WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL BACKDOORING INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHRA
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. EVEN THEN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SW OF CWA. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME REALLY ISO LATE AFTN & EVENING SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. DOESN`T APPEAR THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT
MUCH PAST A BRENHAM-ANAHUAC LINE ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED ESE
FETCH ALONG THE NRN GULF...WOULD SUSPECT WE`LL SEE ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG & SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER
AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF SE TX DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NE THEN N AS AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE & SW GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE SE GULF
AND/OR CARIBBEAN.

DIFFERENCES START EMERGING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING WX
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEPICT H5 RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM BAJA INTO THE DESERT SW AND NEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN TX WHILE GFS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE EXPANDING FURTHER WWD INTO TX AND A SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS DIGGING SE INTO LA AND INTO THE CNTL
& ERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE W/ A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ENELY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUND-
ARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS WIND PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THESE FLOW PERSISTS WE COULD START TO SEE ELEVATED TIDES (UP TO 1 FT
INITIALLY) FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TIDES COULD RISE FROM 1.5
TO 2 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL
OVER THE W/SW GULF (DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE)...
THIS TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS/ELEVATED
SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CAUTION AND/
OR ADVISORY FLAGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  41

&&

.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC HELPING TO KEEP THE VIS/
CIG ISSUES AT BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
EARLY SUN MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  62  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  63  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  70  80  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 180456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ VFR CLOUD DECK FORMING
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAVE TO HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBX IS NOW ZERO WHILE OTHER RURAL
SITES ALSO SHOWING TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT GAP NARROWING. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY HEADED TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. WINDS NEAR THE FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY AID
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. RAP AND NEW NAM SHOWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN ONE DEGREE NEAR THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES
THOUGH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED LIGHT...SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM ROUGHLY CARLSBAD...NM TO SONORA TO NEAR THE D/FW METROPLEX.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE THE FRONT/S PATH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z.
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WAS EVIDENT ON
TONIGHT/S 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH KCRP/S AND KLCH/S PWAT VALUES NOW
CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS OPPOSED TO THE 25 PERCENT TO TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RAOBS REPORTED. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TOMORROW MORNING/S FRONT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO WIND GRIDS... BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ VFR CLOUD DECK FORMING
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAVE TO HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBX IS NOW ZERO WHILE OTHER RURAL
SITES ALSO SHOWING TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT GAP NARROWING. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY HEADED TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. WINDS NEAR THE FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY AID
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. RAP AND NEW NAM SHOWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN ONE DEGREE NEAR THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES
THOUGH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED LIGHT...SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM ROUGHLY CARLSBAD...NM TO SONORA TO NEAR THE D/FW METROPLEX.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE THE FRONT/S PATH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z.
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WAS EVIDENT ON
TONIGHT/S 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH KCRP/S AND KLCH/S PWAT VALUES NOW
CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS OPPOSED TO THE 25 PERCENT TO TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RAOBS REPORTED. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TOMORROW MORNING/S FRONT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO WIND GRIDS... BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 180456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ VFR CLOUD DECK FORMING
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAVE TO HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBX IS NOW ZERO WHILE OTHER RURAL
SITES ALSO SHOWING TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT GAP NARROWING. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY HEADED TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. WINDS NEAR THE FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY AID
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. RAP AND NEW NAM SHOWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN ONE DEGREE NEAR THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES
THOUGH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED LIGHT...SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM ROUGHLY CARLSBAD...NM TO SONORA TO NEAR THE D/FW METROPLEX.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE THE FRONT/S PATH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z.
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WAS EVIDENT ON
TONIGHT/S 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH KCRP/S AND KLCH/S PWAT VALUES NOW
CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS OPPOSED TO THE 25 PERCENT TO TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RAOBS REPORTED. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TOMORROW MORNING/S FRONT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO WIND GRIDS... BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ VFR CLOUD DECK FORMING
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAVE TO HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBX IS NOW ZERO WHILE OTHER RURAL
SITES ALSO SHOWING TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT GAP NARROWING. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY HEADED TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. WINDS NEAR THE FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY AID
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. RAP AND NEW NAM SHOWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN ONE DEGREE NEAR THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES
THOUGH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED LIGHT...SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM ROUGHLY CARLSBAD...NM TO SONORA TO NEAR THE D/FW METROPLEX.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE THE FRONT/S PATH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z.
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WAS EVIDENT ON
TONIGHT/S 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH KCRP/S AND KLCH/S PWAT VALUES NOW
CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS OPPOSED TO THE 25 PERCENT TO TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RAOBS REPORTED. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TOMORROW MORNING/S FRONT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO WIND GRIDS... BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 180229
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
929 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED LIGHT...SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM ROUGHLY CARLSBAD...NM TO SONORA TO NEAR THE D/FW METROPLEX.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE THE FRONT/S PATH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z.
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WAS EVIDENT ON
TONIGHT/S 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH KCRP/S AND KLCH/S PWAT VALUES NOW
CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS OPPOSED TO THE 25 PERCENT TO TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RAOBS REPORTED. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TOMORROW MORNING/S FRONT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO WIND GRIDS... BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 172246
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE EVENT SHOULD BE
TRANSIENT AT MOST. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS ARE RATHER
CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY SOME AREAS SHOWING DEWPOINT/ TEMPERATURE
SPREAD LESS THAN ONE DEGREE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THINK NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE MUCH ACTIVITY. THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA WHERE MODELS BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO AN INCH. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20% OR
LESS THERE FOR NOW DOWN THERE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
IF NEEDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME KIND OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE ON TUESDAY OR
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ANTICIPATING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 172246
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE EVENT SHOULD BE
TRANSIENT AT MOST. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS ARE RATHER
CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY SOME AREAS SHOWING DEWPOINT/ TEMPERATURE
SPREAD LESS THAN ONE DEGREE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THINK NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE MUCH ACTIVITY. THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA WHERE MODELS BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO AN INCH. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20% OR
LESS THERE FOR NOW DOWN THERE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
IF NEEDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME KIND OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE ON TUESDAY OR
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ANTICIPATING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 172246
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE EVENT SHOULD BE
TRANSIENT AT MOST. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS ARE RATHER
CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY SOME AREAS SHOWING DEWPOINT/ TEMPERATURE
SPREAD LESS THAN ONE DEGREE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THINK NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE MUCH ACTIVITY. THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA WHERE MODELS BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO AN INCH. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20% OR
LESS THERE FOR NOW DOWN THERE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
IF NEEDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME KIND OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE ON TUESDAY OR
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ANTICIPATING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 172246
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE EVENT SHOULD BE
TRANSIENT AT MOST. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS ARE RATHER
CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY SOME AREAS SHOWING DEWPOINT/ TEMPERATURE
SPREAD LESS THAN ONE DEGREE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THINK NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE MUCH ACTIVITY. THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA WHERE MODELS BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO AN INCH. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20% OR
LESS THERE FOR NOW DOWN THERE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
IF NEEDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME KIND OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE ON TUESDAY OR
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ANTICIPATING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 172057
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THINK NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE MUCH ACTIVITY. THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA WHERE MODELS BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO AN INCH. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20% OR
LESS THERE FOR NOW DOWN THERE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
IF NEEDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME KIND OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE ON TUESDAY OR
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ANTICIPATING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 172057
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THINK NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE MUCH ACTIVITY. THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA WHERE MODELS BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO AN INCH. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20% OR
LESS THERE FOR NOW DOWN THERE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
IF NEEDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME KIND OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE ON TUESDAY OR
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ANTICIPATING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171735
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 171735
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171557
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS BELOW ARE LOOKING GOOD. ANTICIPATING JUST
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RISE. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY & SAT AS LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
RETURNS BACK INTO SE TX COMPLIMENTS OF SLY WINDS. WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO SE TX SAT AFTN & EVNG. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND HAVE DOUBTS WE`LL SEE PRECIP
EVEN WORTH MENTIONING...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING SOME ISO SPECKLING OF
SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME LOWISH POPS BUT SUSPECT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
IT`LL MAKE IT MUCH PAST I-10 CORRIDOR SO VERY SLT PRECIP CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FALLING PRESSURES AND UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE SRN GULF FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
A SFC CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND GETS PULLED ENE TOWARD
TAIL OF MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE E COAST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. LLVL WINDS WOULD TRANSITION FROM E-NE-N AS THIS
OCCURS AND PULLS DOWN DRY AIRMASS INTO TX. LOOKING LIKE A REALLY
NICE WX WEEK OVERALL. (EVEN IF AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOESN`T END
UP FEELING THAT ERN TROF AND LINGERS FOR A WHILE...SHEAR ALOFT
LOOKS WAY TOO HOSTILE TO BE MUCH OF A TROPICAL THREAT HERE.) DO
HOWEVER ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE ISSUES WITH ELEVATED WINDS...
SEAS...AND TIDE LEVELS WITH A LONG DURATION E/NE FETCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GULF. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41


AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VIS PROB FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SAT MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171557
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS BELOW ARE LOOKING GOOD. ANTICIPATING JUST
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RISE. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY & SAT AS LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
RETURNS BACK INTO SE TX COMPLIMENTS OF SLY WINDS. WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO SE TX SAT AFTN & EVNG. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND HAVE DOUBTS WE`LL SEE PRECIP
EVEN WORTH MENTIONING...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING SOME ISO SPECKLING OF
SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME LOWISH POPS BUT SUSPECT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
IT`LL MAKE IT MUCH PAST I-10 CORRIDOR SO VERY SLT PRECIP CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FALLING PRESSURES AND UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE SRN GULF FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
A SFC CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND GETS PULLED ENE TOWARD
TAIL OF MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE E COAST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. LLVL WINDS WOULD TRANSITION FROM E-NE-N AS THIS
OCCURS AND PULLS DOWN DRY AIRMASS INTO TX. LOOKING LIKE A REALLY
NICE WX WEEK OVERALL. (EVEN IF AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOESN`T END
UP FEELING THAT ERN TROF AND LINGERS FOR A WHILE...SHEAR ALOFT
LOOKS WAY TOO HOSTILE TO BE MUCH OF A TROPICAL THREAT HERE.) DO
HOWEVER ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE ISSUES WITH ELEVATED WINDS...
SEAS...AND TIDE LEVELS WITH A LONG DURATION E/NE FETCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GULF. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41


AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VIS PROB FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SAT MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171557
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS BELOW ARE LOOKING GOOD. ANTICIPATING JUST
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RISE. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY & SAT AS LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
RETURNS BACK INTO SE TX COMPLIMENTS OF SLY WINDS. WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO SE TX SAT AFTN & EVNG. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND HAVE DOUBTS WE`LL SEE PRECIP
EVEN WORTH MENTIONING...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING SOME ISO SPECKLING OF
SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME LOWISH POPS BUT SUSPECT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
IT`LL MAKE IT MUCH PAST I-10 CORRIDOR SO VERY SLT PRECIP CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FALLING PRESSURES AND UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE SRN GULF FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
A SFC CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND GETS PULLED ENE TOWARD
TAIL OF MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE E COAST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. LLVL WINDS WOULD TRANSITION FROM E-NE-N AS THIS
OCCURS AND PULLS DOWN DRY AIRMASS INTO TX. LOOKING LIKE A REALLY
NICE WX WEEK OVERALL. (EVEN IF AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOESN`T END
UP FEELING THAT ERN TROF AND LINGERS FOR A WHILE...SHEAR ALOFT
LOOKS WAY TOO HOSTILE TO BE MUCH OF A TROPICAL THREAT HERE.) DO
HOWEVER ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE ISSUES WITH ELEVATED WINDS...
SEAS...AND TIDE LEVELS WITH A LONG DURATION E/NE FETCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GULF. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41


AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VIS PROB FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SAT MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 171557
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS BELOW ARE LOOKING GOOD. ANTICIPATING JUST
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RISE. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY & SAT AS LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
RETURNS BACK INTO SE TX COMPLIMENTS OF SLY WINDS. WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO SE TX SAT AFTN & EVNG. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND HAVE DOUBTS WE`LL SEE PRECIP
EVEN WORTH MENTIONING...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING SOME ISO SPECKLING OF
SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME LOWISH POPS BUT SUSPECT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
IT`LL MAKE IT MUCH PAST I-10 CORRIDOR SO VERY SLT PRECIP CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FALLING PRESSURES AND UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE SRN GULF FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
A SFC CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND GETS PULLED ENE TOWARD
TAIL OF MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE E COAST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. LLVL WINDS WOULD TRANSITION FROM E-NE-N AS THIS
OCCURS AND PULLS DOWN DRY AIRMASS INTO TX. LOOKING LIKE A REALLY
NICE WX WEEK OVERALL. (EVEN IF AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOESN`T END
UP FEELING THAT ERN TROF AND LINGERS FOR A WHILE...SHEAR ALOFT
LOOKS WAY TOO HOSTILE TO BE MUCH OF A TROPICAL THREAT HERE.) DO
HOWEVER ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE ISSUES WITH ELEVATED WINDS...
SEAS...AND TIDE LEVELS WITH A LONG DURATION E/NE FETCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GULF. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41


AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VIS PROB FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SAT MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 170915
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY & SAT AS LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
RETURNS BACK INTO SE TX COMPLIMENTS OF SLY WINDS. WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO SE TX SAT AFTN & EVNG. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND HAVE DOUBTS WE`LL SEE PRECIP
EVEN WORTH MENTIONING...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING SOME ISO SPECKLING OF
SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME LOWISH POPS BUT SUSPECT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
IT`LL MAKE IT MUCH PAST I-10 CORRIDOR SO VERY SLT PRECIP CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FALLING PRESSURES AND UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE SRN GULF FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
A SFC CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND GETS PULLED ENE TOWARD
TAIL OF MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE E COAST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. LLVL WINDS WOULD TRANSITION FROM E-NE-N AS THIS
OCCURS AND PULLS DOWN DRY AIRMASS INTO TX. LOOKING LIKE A REALLY
NICE WX WEEK OVERALL. (EVEN IF AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOESN`T END
UP FEELING THAT ERN TROF AND LINGERS FOR A WHILE...SHEAR ALOFT
LOOKS WAY TOO HOSTILE TO BE MUCH OF A TROPICAL THREAT HERE.) DO
HOWEVER ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE ISSUES WITH ELEVATED WINDS...
SEAS...AND TIDE LEVELS WITH A LONG DURATION E/NE FETCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GULF. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VIS PROB FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SAT MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 170915
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY & SAT AS LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
RETURNS BACK INTO SE TX COMPLIMENTS OF SLY WINDS. WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO SE TX SAT AFTN & EVNG. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND HAVE DOUBTS WE`LL SEE PRECIP
EVEN WORTH MENTIONING...BUT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING SOME ISO SPECKLING OF
SHRA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME LOWISH POPS BUT SUSPECT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
IT`LL MAKE IT MUCH PAST I-10 CORRIDOR SO VERY SLT PRECIP CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FALLING PRESSURES AND UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE SRN GULF FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
A SFC CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND GETS PULLED ENE TOWARD
TAIL OF MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE E COAST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. LLVL WINDS WOULD TRANSITION FROM E-NE-N AS THIS
OCCURS AND PULLS DOWN DRY AIRMASS INTO TX. LOOKING LIKE A REALLY
NICE WX WEEK OVERALL. (EVEN IF AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOESN`T END
UP FEELING THAT ERN TROF AND LINGERS FOR A WHILE...SHEAR ALOFT
LOOKS WAY TOO HOSTILE TO BE MUCH OF A TROPICAL THREAT HERE.) DO
HOWEVER ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE ISSUES WITH ELEVATED WINDS...
SEAS...AND TIDE LEVELS WITH A LONG DURATION E/NE FETCH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GULF. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST-
URE COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VIS PROB FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SAT MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





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