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000
FXUS64 KHGX 302023
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS - LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
SUNNY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG THE LOWER COAST EXTENDING UP INTO SETX
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO NAVASOTA TO
HUMBLE TO DEVERS. SAN JACINTO COUNTY GOT THE WORST OF IT PER RAIN
GAGES BUT HOUSTON COUNTY HAD SOME COPIOUS RAINFALL AS WELL. RAWS
STATION IN SAN JAC COUNTY MEASURED 6.21". QUITE A FEW 2-4" AMOUNTS
IN MONTGOMERY/SAN JACINTO/POLK/HOUSTON COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING INTO
BURLESON/BRAZOS/MADISON COUNTIES AT 3 PM. AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERHAPS SOUTHWEST MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS WITH STRONGER LL CONVERGENCE
BUT CAP IS STRONGER THERE PROBABLY PRECLUDING TSRA. LIGHT WIND
REGIME NEAR THE COAST AND LOWERING SEAS SHOULD ALLOW THE ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS TO RECEDE A LITTLE TO THE POINT OF NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS SO WILL LET THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON BAY
AREA EXPIRE AT 6 PM. OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND RELAXING WINDS. SUNDAY THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
NW AREAS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD WITH
APPROACH OF A S/W AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP...WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
STORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MAY GET A FEW SLOW MOVING STRONG
ONES BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AM INCLINED
TO FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO 35-50 PERCENT
RANGE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH (WHERE WEAKER CAP MAY BE)
TAPERING DOWN TOWARD THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT STARTS MOVING SOUTH AND STRONGER S/W TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA AND MAY SEE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH LINE AND MARCH THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR MAY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF THIS PANS OUT THE RAIN
CHANCES MAY NEED LOWERING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WOULD PROBABLY
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AS WELL AS ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET OFFSHORE.
IF THE CLUSTER DOESN`T FORM THEN SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND DROPPED DRAMATICALLY
TUESDAY GIVEN THE FRONT WILL LIKE SURGE WELL OUT INTO THE GULF
AND DRY AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MOISTURE FINALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY COME
SUNDAY MAY 8TH.
45

&&
.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLOW DECREASE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE ELEVATED
SEAS SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH ON MONDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND THIS OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARD CAUTION LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL COME BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      68  81  66  75  58 /  20  50  60  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  83  71  80  63 /  20  50  70  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  80  75  81  68 /  20  40  60  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY SHRA/TSRA IN THE TAFS. THINK
OBSERVATIONS WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WILL BE DROPPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH SHORTLY FOR THE AREA WITH THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY AROUND 1030 AM. MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE GULF
WATERS BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT UNTIL AFTERNOON THEN ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT AROUND 1030 OR SO AS WELL WITH THE UPDATES.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR ESTIMATES 1-4" OF RAIN OVER N/NE PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SE TX BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MORNING. AT 4 AM...STILL
HAVE NICE INFLOW FEEDING TO THE STORMS WITH HGX VWP SHOWING SOUTH
WINDS ~35KT IN THE LLVLS. OBSERVED SFC WINDS IN THE BAY HAVE BEEN
SOUTH AT 20-30KT SINCE ABOUT 11 PM AS WELL. GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS IN
THE HOUSTON AREA STILL SHOW A PESKY CAP IN PLACE THAT HAS LIMITED
PRECIP IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO.
HOWEVER...IT`S LOOKING LIKE THE COLD POOL IN PLACE BEHIND CURRENT
CONVECTION AND ALSO THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PUSH THE PRECIP INTO THRU THE METRO AREA AND HOPEFULLY OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
KNOCK SOME TREES DOWN DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. SINCE STORMS ARE IN
THE AREA...I`M GOING TO LEAVE FF WATCH IN PLACE WHERE IT`S RAINING
AND FCST, BUT THINK OVERALL THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. I ALSO THINK THERE`S A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE THE NEXT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WATCH ASSUMING THE CONVECTION DOES
INDEED MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND BELIEVE ATMOS WILL BE WORKED OVER AND THREAT
OF FF WILL WANE. COULD STILL BE SOME SCT REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND LINGERS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN A CONVERGENT ZONE
FOR SOME SCT PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ATMOS RECOVERS.
THINK THE NEXT HEAVIER RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE SOMETIME BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS PW`S CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 2", UPPER DIFFLUENCE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND UPPER
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. BUT...AS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS - CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DETAILS IS SKETCHY AT BEST.

SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP WED-FRI AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN. LONG RANGES GUESSES SHOW WE`LL BE BACK TO ANALYZING RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  47

MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SCA/SCEC CONFIGURATION THRU THIS MID MORN-
ING HRS GIVEN THE ONGOING TRENDS. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE OUT/OFF TO
THE E/SE...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTN WITH THIS
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. TIDE ISSUE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTN (WITH WATER RUN-UP ALONG BEACHES/COASTAL ROADS) ARE NOT EXPECT-
ED TO BE AS BIG AN ISSUE WITH WINDS FCST TO DECREASE.

MODELS KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT ON MON. OFFSHORE WINDS
PROGGED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST WED/WED NIGHT WHEN
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS SET
TO RETURN/STRENGTHEN LATE FRI ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND IF THIS EXTENDED
FCST PANS OUT. 41

AVIATION...
WILL BE A TRICKY FCST AS ONE AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVES OUT TO THE
E/NE AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO FAR MOST OF THE ACTIV-
ITY HAS BEEN OVER THE NRN SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SRN SITES SHOULD
GET THEIR CHANCES LATE THIS MORN/AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  68  83  67  75 /  20  20  50  50  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  72  84  70  80 /  30  30  50  40  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  74  82  74  81 /  80  30  50  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY SHRA/TSRA IN THE TAFS. THINK
OBSERVATIONS WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WILL BE DROPPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH SHORTLY FOR THE AREA WITH THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY AROUND 1030 AM. MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE GULF
WATERS BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT UNTIL AFTERNOON THEN ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT AROUND 1030 OR SO AS WELL WITH THE UPDATES.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR ESTIMATES 1-4" OF RAIN OVER N/NE PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SE TX BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MORNING. AT 4 AM...STILL
HAVE NICE INFLOW FEEDING TO THE STORMS WITH HGX VWP SHOWING SOUTH
WINDS ~35KT IN THE LLVLS. OBSERVED SFC WINDS IN THE BAY HAVE BEEN
SOUTH AT 20-30KT SINCE ABOUT 11 PM AS WELL. GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS IN
THE HOUSTON AREA STILL SHOW A PESKY CAP IN PLACE THAT HAS LIMITED
PRECIP IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO.
HOWEVER...IT`S LOOKING LIKE THE COLD POOL IN PLACE BEHIND CURRENT
CONVECTION AND ALSO THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PUSH THE PRECIP INTO THRU THE METRO AREA AND HOPEFULLY OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
KNOCK SOME TREES DOWN DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. SINCE STORMS ARE IN
THE AREA...I`M GOING TO LEAVE FF WATCH IN PLACE WHERE IT`S RAINING
AND FCST, BUT THINK OVERALL THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. I ALSO THINK THERE`S A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE THE NEXT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WATCH ASSUMING THE CONVECTION DOES
INDEED MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND BELIEVE ATMOS WILL BE WORKED OVER AND THREAT
OF FF WILL WANE. COULD STILL BE SOME SCT REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND LINGERS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN A CONVERGENT ZONE
FOR SOME SCT PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ATMOS RECOVERS.
THINK THE NEXT HEAVIER RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE SOMETIME BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS PW`S CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 2", UPPER DIFFLUENCE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND UPPER
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. BUT...AS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS - CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DETAILS IS SKETCHY AT BEST.

SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP WED-FRI AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN. LONG RANGES GUESSES SHOW WE`LL BE BACK TO ANALYZING RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  47

MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SCA/SCEC CONFIGURATION THRU THIS MID MORN-
ING HRS GIVEN THE ONGOING TRENDS. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE OUT/OFF TO
THE E/SE...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTN WITH THIS
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. TIDE ISSUE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTN (WITH WATER RUN-UP ALONG BEACHES/COASTAL ROADS) ARE NOT EXPECT-
ED TO BE AS BIG AN ISSUE WITH WINDS FCST TO DECREASE.

MODELS KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT ON MON. OFFSHORE WINDS
PROGGED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST WED/WED NIGHT WHEN
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS SET
TO RETURN/STRENGTHEN LATE FRI ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND IF THIS EXTENDED
FCST PANS OUT. 41

AVIATION...
WILL BE A TRICKY FCST AS ONE AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVES OUT TO THE
E/NE AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO FAR MOST OF THE ACTIV-
ITY HAS BEEN OVER THE NRN SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SRN SITES SHOULD
GET THEIR CHANCES LATE THIS MORN/AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  68  83  67  75 /  20  20  50  50  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  72  84  70  80 /  30  30  50  40  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  74  82  74  81 /  80  30  50  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301458
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
958 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
WILL BE DROPPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH SHORTLY FOR THE AREA WITH THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY AROUND 1030 AM. MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE GULF
WATERS BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT UNTIL AFTERNOON THEN ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT AROUND 1030 OR SO AS WELL WITH THE UPDATES.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR ESTIMATES 1-4" OF RAIN OVER N/NE PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SE TX BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MORNING. AT 4 AM...STILL
HAVE NICE INFLOW FEEDING TO THE STORMS WITH HGX VWP SHOWING SOUTH
WINDS ~35KT IN THE LLVLS. OBSERVED SFC WINDS IN THE BAY HAVE BEEN
SOUTH AT 20-30KT SINCE ABOUT 11 PM AS WELL. GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS IN
THE HOUSTON AREA STILL SHOW A PESKY CAP IN PLACE THAT HAS LIMITED
PRECIP IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO.
HOWEVER...IT`S LOOKING LIKE THE COLD POOL IN PLACE BEHIND CURRENT
CONVECTION AND ALSO THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PUSH THE PRECIP INTO THRU THE METRO AREA AND HOPEFULLY OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
KNOCK SOME TREES DOWN DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. SINCE STORMS ARE IN
THE AREA...I`M GOING TO LEAVE FF WATCH IN PLACE WHERE IT`S RAINING
AND FCST, BUT THINK OVERALL THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. I ALSO THINK THERE`S A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE THE NEXT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WATCH ASSUMING THE CONVECTION DOES
INDEED MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND BELIEVE ATMOS WILL BE WORKED OVER AND THREAT
OF FF WILL WANE. COULD STILL BE SOME SCT REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND LINGERS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN A CONVERGENT ZONE
FOR SOME SCT PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ATMOS RECOVERS.
THINK THE NEXT HEAVIER RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE SOMETIME BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS PW`S CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 2", UPPER DIFFLUENCE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND UPPER
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. BUT...AS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS - CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DETAILS IS SKETCHY AT BEST.

SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP WED-FRI AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN. LONG RANGES GUESSES SHOW WE`LL BE BACK TO ANALYZING RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  47

MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SCA/SCEC CONFIGURATION THRU THIS MID MORN-
ING HRS GIVEN THE ONGOING TRENDS. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE OUT/OFF TO
THE E/SE...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTN WITH THIS
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. TIDE ISSUE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTN (WITH WATER RUN-UP ALONG BEACHES/COASTAL ROADS) ARE NOT EXPECT-
ED TO BE AS BIG AN ISSUE WITH WINDS FCST TO DECREASE.

MODELS KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT ON MON. OFFSHORE WINDS
PROGGED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST WED/WED NIGHT WHEN
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS SET
TO RETURN/STRENGTHEN LATE FRI ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND IF THIS EXTENDED
FCST PANS OUT. 41

AVIATION...
WILL BE A TRICKY FCST AS ONE AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVES OUT TO THE
E/NE AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO FAR MOST OF THE ACTIV-
ITY HAS BEEN OVER THE NRN SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SRN SITES SHOULD
GET THEIR CHANCES LATE THIS MORN/AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  68  83  67  75 /  20  20  50  50  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  72  84  70  80 /  30  30  50  40  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  74  82  74  81 /  60  30  50  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300934
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR ESTIMATES 1-4" OF RAIN OVER N/NE PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SE TX BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MORNING. AT 4 AM...STILL
HAVE NICE INFLOW FEEDING TO THE STORMS WITH HGX VWP SHOWING SOUTH
WINDS ~35KT IN THE LLVLS. OBSERVED SFC WINDS IN THE BAY HAVE BEEN
SOUTH AT 20-30KT SINCE ABOUT 11 PM AS WELL. GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS IN
THE HOUSTON AREA STILL SHOW A PESKY CAP IN PLACE THAT HAS LIMITED
PRECIP IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO.
HOWEVER...IT`S LOOKING LIKE THE COLD POOL IN PLACE BEHIND CURRENT
CONVECTION AND ALSO THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PUSH THE PRECIP INTO THRU THE METRO AREA AND HOPEFULLY OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
KNOCK SOME TREES DOWN DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. SINCE STORMS ARE IN
THE AREA...I`M GOING TO LEAVE FF WATCH IN PLACE WHERE IT`S RAINING
AND FCST, BUT THINK OVERALL THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. I ALSO THINK THERE`S A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE THE NEXT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WATCH ASSUMING THE CONVECTION DOES
INDEED MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND BELIEVE ATMOS WILL BE WORKED OVER AND THREAT
OF FF WILL WANE. COULD STILL BE SOME SCT REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND LINGERS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN A CONVERGENT ZONE
FOR SOME SCT PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ATMOS RECOVERS.
THINK THE NEXT HEAVIER RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE SOMETIME BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS PW`S CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 2", UPPER DIFFLUENCE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND UPPER
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. BUT...AS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS - CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DETAILS IS SKETCHY AT BEST.

SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIP WED-FRI AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN. LONG RANGES GUESSES SHOW WE`LL BE BACK TO ANALYZING RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  47

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SCA/SCEC CONFIGURATION THRU THIS MID MORN-
ING HRS GIVEN THE ONGOING TRENDS. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE OUT/OFF TO
THE E/SE...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTN WITH THIS
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. TIDE ISSUE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTN (WITH WATER RUN-UP ALONG BEACHES/COASTAL ROADS) ARE NOT EXPECT-
ED TO BE AS BIG AN ISSUE WITH WINDS FCST TO DECREASE.

MODELS KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT ON MON. OFFSHORE WINDS
PROGGED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST WED/WED NIGHT WHEN
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS SET
TO RETURN/STRENGTHEN LATE FRI ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND IF THIS EXTENDED
FCST PANS OUT. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BE A TRICKY FCST AS ONE AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVES OUT TO THE
E/NE AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO FAR MOST OF THE ACTIV-
ITY HAS BEEN OVER THE NRN SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SRN SITES SHOULD
GET THEIR CHANCES LATE THIS MORN/AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  68  83  67  75 /  30  20  50  50  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  72  84  70  80 /  60  30  50  40  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  74  82  74  81 /  60  30  50  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300506
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1206 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
STILL A DIFFICULT FORECAST AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS...AND LOW PAST SIX HOURS. THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR OVER
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WAS KEEPING A LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE PLUME WAS EVIDENT FROM MATAGORDA
BAY THROUGH KCLL. STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE WEST AND ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH ARE SHOWN BY SOME OF THE MODELS TO
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE RAP13 AND NAM12 BOTH
PUSH THE DRY LINE/SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA TO THE COAST
ON SATURDAY. WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST...EVEN
THOUGH THE SOLUTIONS WERE VARIED.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...TWEAKED MAINLY THE FIRST SIX HOURS.
HOWEVER...DID MAKE SOME BIGGER CHANCES FOR KHOU TO KGLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...
MAY HAVE DODGED THE BULLET WITH THE FIRST ROUND ACROSS MOST OF
SERN TX AS DIURNAL STORMS FAILED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITH
LIMITED CONVERGENCE/UPPER SUPPORT AND MODEST CAPPING IN PLACE.
EYES WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS WE MONITOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY LINE AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF OUR RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT
MAY NOW BE TIED TO BROKEN LINE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AFTER 06Z.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SERN TX WITH AXIS OF
1.5-2" PWS IN PLACE SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH /FORTUNATELY/ OVERALL TOTALS MAY BE
LESS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REGARDLESS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN PLACE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SATURATED SOILS.

SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
EFFECTS FROM EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THESE STORMS PUSH THROUGH
AS AN ORGANIZED MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD THEN WORK-OVER AIR MASS ENOUGH TO REDUCE
TSTM POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER IF THIS
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND OR LEAVES A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WE
COULD SEE INCREASED TSTM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TOMORROW.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIO...BUMPING BACK POPS/QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT.

EVANS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MOISTURE AXIS FROM MATAGORDA
BAY TO KCLL TO MADISON COUNTY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
MOIST AXIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFERED...HOWEVER THERE WAS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM12/RAP13 TO TRY AND TIME THE EVENT
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TERMINALS WERE BASED ON THE NAM12 AND RAP13
AND THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  69  82  66 /  90  50  40  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  82  71  82  70 /  80  60  40  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  80  74  80  73 /  60  60  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
843 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
MAY HAVE DODGED THE BULLET WITH THE FIRST ROUND ACROSS MOST OF
SERN TX AS DIURNAL STORMS FAILED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITH
LIMITED CONVERGENCE/UPPER SUPPORT AND MODEST CAPPING IN PLACE.
EYES WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS WE MONITOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY LINE AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF OUR RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT
MAY NOW BE TIED TO BROKEN LINE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AFTER 06Z.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SERN TX WITH AXIS OF
1.5-2" PWS IN PLACE SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH /FORTUNATELY/ OVERALL TOTALS MAY BE
LESS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REGARDLESS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN PLACE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SATURATED SOILS.

SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
EFFECTS FROM EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THESE STORMS PUSH THROUGH
AS AN ORGANIZED MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD THEN WORK-OVER AIR MASS ENOUGH TO REDUCE
TSTM POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER IF THIS
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND OR LEAVES A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WE
COULD SEE INCREASED TSTM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TOMORROW.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIO...BUMPING BACK POPS/QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT.

EVANS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MOISTURE AXIS FROM MATAGORDA
BAY TO KCLL TO MADISON COUNTY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
MOIST AXIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFERED...HOWEVER THERE WAS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM12/RAP13 TO TRY AND TIME THE EVENT
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TERMINALS WERE BASED ON THE NAM12 AND RAP13
AND THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  69  82  66 /  90  50  40  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  82  71  82  70 /  80  60  40  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  80  74  80  73 /  60  60  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 300143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
843 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
MAY HAVE DODGED THE BULLET WITH THE FIRST ROUND ACROSS MOST OF
SERN TX AS DIURNAL STORMS FAILED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITH
LIMITED CONVERGENCE/UPPER SUPPORT AND MODEST CAPPING IN PLACE.
EYES WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS WE MONITOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY LINE AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF OUR RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT
MAY NOW BE TIED TO BROKEN LINE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AFTER 06Z.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SERN TX WITH AXIS OF
1.5-2" PWS IN PLACE SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH /FORTUNATELY/ OVERALL TOTALS MAY BE
LESS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REGARDLESS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN PLACE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SATURATED SOILS.

SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
EFFECTS FROM EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THESE STORMS PUSH THROUGH
AS AN ORGANIZED MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD THEN WORK-OVER AIR MASS ENOUGH TO REDUCE
TSTM POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER IF THIS
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND OR LEAVES A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WE
COULD SEE INCREASED TSTM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TOMORROW.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIO...BUMPING BACK POPS/QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT.

EVANS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MOISTURE AXIS FROM MATAGORDA
BAY TO KCLL TO MADISON COUNTY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
MOIST AXIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFERED...HOWEVER THERE WAS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM12/RAP13 TO TRY AND TIME THE EVENT
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TERMINALS WERE BASED ON THE NAM12 AND RAP13
AND THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  69  82  66 /  90  50  40  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  82  71  82  70 /  80  60  40  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  80  74  80  73 /  60  60  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292337
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MOISTURE AXIS FROM MATAGORDA
BAY TO KCLL TO MADISON COUNTY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
MOIST AXIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFERED...HOWEVER THERE WAS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM12/RAP13 TO TRY AND TIME THE EVENT
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TERMINALS WERE BASED ON THE NAM12 AND RAP13
AND THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE LIBERTY/CHAMBERS
GALVESTON/BRAZORIA COUNTIES. SEVERE THREAT SLIGHT TO ENHANCED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INGREDIENTS ALL IN PLACE NOW ACROSS THE REGION. PW 1.25-1.5 AND
CLIMBING. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO 85-88 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND GET GUSTY. SETX IS
GOING TO BE UNDER THE GUN TONIGHT FOR SEVERE AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD START OUT AS TORNADO/HAIL THREAT IN THE
WEST AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. AS WE GET
INTO THE EVENING THE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION...WET GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR TREE FALL AT LOWER
WIND SPEEDS THAN NORMAL.

FLOODING THREAT FOR MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM POINT TO AN EAST
WEST BOUNDARY ACROSS SETX...LOCATION MAY BE WELL NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA OR FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE METRO AREA. THIS
COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION IF THIS SETS UP ALONG THE
SPRING CREEK TO I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE EASY TO ACHIEVE IN THIS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT
GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LL INFLOW AND LL SATURATION. EVENTUALLY
THIS STORM COMPLEX SLIDES EAST AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA AROUND NOON SATURDAY OR PERHAPS EARLIER IF THE COLD POOL CAN
GET MORE DOMINANT BUT THROUGH 3 AM THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT IT
COULD SURGE EAST OUT OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND BRINGS IN DRYING AT LEAST OVER
THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR NEARSHORE WATERS AND THEN AS
NEXT TROUGH DROPS IN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE FRONT ACTIVATES
AGAIN SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MORE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. THE `GOOD` NEWS IS
THAT STRONG LL INFLOW IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY MORE SCATTERED AND NOT
AS FOCUSED.

PERSONS ACROSS SETX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A VERY ROUGH NIGHT OF WEATHER.

45

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAYS DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING
AREAS IN THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  69  82  66 / 100  50  40  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  82  71  82  70 / 100  60  40  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  80  74  80  73 /  60  60  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 292041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE LIBERTY/CHAMBERS
GALVESTON/BRAZORIA COUNTIES. SEVERE THREAT SLIGHT TO ENHANCED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INGREDIENTS ALL IN PLACE NOW ACROSS THE REGION. PW 1.25-1.5 AND
CLIMBING. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO 85-88 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND GET GUSTY. SETX IS
GOING TO BE UNDER THE GUN TONIGHT FOR SEVERE AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD START OUT AS TORNADO/HAIL THREAT IN THE
WEST AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. AS WE GET
INTO THE EVENING THE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION...WET GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR TREE FALL AT LOWER
WIND SPEEDS THAN NORMAL.

FLOODING THREAT FOR MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM POINT TO AN EAST
WEST BOUNDARY ACROSS SETX...LOCATION MAY BE WELL NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA OR FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE METRO AREA. THIS
COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION IF THIS SETS UP ALONG THE
SPRING CREEK TO I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE EASY TO ACHIEVE IN THIS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT
GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LL INFLOW AND LL SATURATION. EVENTUALLY
THIS STORM COMPLEX SLIDES EAST AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA AROUND NOON SATURDAY OR PERHAPS EARLIER IF THE COLD POOL CAN
GET MORE DOMINANT BUT THROUGH 3 AM THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT IT
COULD SURGE EAST OUT OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND BRINGS IN DRYING AT LEAST OVER
THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR NEARSHORE WATERS AND THEN AS
NEXT TROUGH DROPS IN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE FRONT ACTIVATES
AGAIN SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MORE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. THE `GOOD` NEWS IS
THAT STRONG LL INFLOW IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY MORE SCATTERED AND NOT
AS FOCUSED.

PERSONS ACROSS SETX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A VERY ROUGH NIGHT OF WEATHER.

45

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAYS DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING
AREAS IN THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.  42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  69  82  66 / 100  50  40  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  82  71  82  70 / 100  60  40  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  80  74  80  73 /  60  60  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
29/18Z TAFS HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500-3500 FEET. LOOKING
FOR SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOTS OF TSRA/VCTS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS)...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT
WHERE/WHEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. TAFS
WILL BE UPDATED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS AND EVOLVES.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE. CAP STILL HOLDING AS OF 10 AM BUT STORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. CU DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO THIS AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK DOWN INTO THE CWA AS CAP
ERODES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE LOWERING OF POPS
SOUTH WHERE STRONGLY CAPPED AND ADDED HAZY. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY (AWAY FROM THE CAP) WILL HAVE THREATS RANGING
FROM TORNADO-WIND-HAIL THREAT IN THE WEST TO HAIL-WIND IN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS EVENING THIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND FOR WHAT
IT IS WORTH THE 12Z NAM PAINTS A GRUESOME PICTURE OF A DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE
NORTHWARD. VERY HIGH LOCALIZED HELICITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT STILL HIGH AND LATEST HRRR/NAM
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70 100  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  40  80  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
29/18Z TAFS HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500-3500 FEET. LOOKING
FOR SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOTS OF TSRA/VCTS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS)...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT
WHERE/WHEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. TAFS
WILL BE UPDATED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS AND EVOLVES.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE. CAP STILL HOLDING AS OF 10 AM BUT STORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. CU DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO THIS AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK DOWN INTO THE CWA AS CAP
ERODES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE LOWERING OF POPS
SOUTH WHERE STRONGLY CAPPED AND ADDED HAZY. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY (AWAY FROM THE CAP) WILL HAVE THREATS RANGING
FROM TORNADO-WIND-HAIL THREAT IN THE WEST TO HAIL-WIND IN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS EVENING THIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND FOR WHAT
IT IS WORTH THE 12Z NAM PAINTS A GRUESOME PICTURE OF A DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE
NORTHWARD. VERY HIGH LOCALIZED HELICITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT STILL HIGH AND LATEST HRRR/NAM
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70 100  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  40  80  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 291547
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1047 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE. CAP STILL HOLDING AS OF 10 AM BUT STORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. CU DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO THIS AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK DOWN INTO THE CWA AS CAP
ERODES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE LOWERING OF POPS
SOUTH WHERE STRONGLY CAPPED AND ADDED HAZY. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY (AWAY FROM THE CAP) WILL HAVE THREATS RANGING
FROM TORNADO-WIND-HAIL THREAT IN THE WEST TO HAIL-WIND IN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS EVENING THIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND FOR WHAT
IT IS WORTH THE 12Z NAM PAINTS A GRUESOME PICTURE OF A DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE
NORTHWARD. VERY HIGH LOCALIZED HELICITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT STILL HIGH AND LATEST HRRR/NAM
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

AVIATION...
STRONG WAA HAS PRODUCED SOME WIDELY SCT -DZ/-RA OVER SE TX OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT SOME THRU
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS AS THE DEEP ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
WE COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH VCSH...BUT INCREAS-
ED PCPN CHCS TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS. TIMING OF THE STORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE SO WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH VCTS WORDING
FOR NOW. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70 100  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  40  80  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290939
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WAA HAS PRODUCED SOME WIDELY SCT -DZ/-RA OVER SE TX OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT SOME THRU
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS AS THE DEEP ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
WE COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH VCSH...BUT INCREAS-
ED PCPN CHCS TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS. TIMING OF THE STORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE SO WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH VCTS WORDING
FOR NOW. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70  80  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  50  70  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290501
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF KCLL AND KUTS...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z OVER THOSE SITES WHICH ARE NOT
ALREADY LOWER THAN VFR AT 06Z. NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW FOR CEILINGS FOR MOST SITES.
HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS AT KGLS AND KGLS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IFR
CONDITIONS COULD WORK INLAND TO KSGR AND KHOU. GOOD WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALSO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN.

ON FRIDAY...A CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL
INLAND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS TO THE
COVERAGE PROBLEM. THERE WILL BE BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS
INDICATING VERY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
START EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN THEN WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL SITES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW ITEMS THAT POINT TO
THIS SOLUTION ARE THE GFS AND ECWMF BOTH FORECASTING A 250 MB
DIVERGENT AREA MORE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS DURING DAY ON
FRIDAY. THIS AREA DOES NOT WORK ITS WAY INTO SE TEXAS UNTIL THE
EVENING. THE 500 MB LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALSO ARE NOT FORECAST
BY BOTH MODELS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING. THUS...TWEAKED THE
FORECASTS TO HAVE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ARRIVE LATER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.8
INCHES AT LCH. THE LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MSTR FROM ABOUT 900-700 MB
WHILE THE CRP SHOWS MORE OF A CAP AT 850 MB AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOIST LAYER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP DOESN`T REALLY START DEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTER 10Z. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES. COULD GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG IN THE WX
GRIDS. MIN TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  30  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290501
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF KCLL AND KUTS...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z OVER THOSE SITES WHICH ARE NOT
ALREADY LOWER THAN VFR AT 06Z. NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW FOR CEILINGS FOR MOST SITES.
HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS AT KGLS AND KGLS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IFR
CONDITIONS COULD WORK INLAND TO KSGR AND KHOU. GOOD WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALSO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN.

ON FRIDAY...A CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL
INLAND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS TO THE
COVERAGE PROBLEM. THERE WILL BE BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS
INDICATING VERY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
START EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN THEN WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL SITES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW ITEMS THAT POINT TO
THIS SOLUTION ARE THE GFS AND ECWMF BOTH FORECASTING A 250 MB
DIVERGENT AREA MORE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS DURING DAY ON
FRIDAY. THIS AREA DOES NOT WORK ITS WAY INTO SE TEXAS UNTIL THE
EVENING. THE 500 MB LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALSO ARE NOT FORECAST
BY BOTH MODELS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING. THUS...TWEAKED THE
FORECASTS TO HAVE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ARRIVE LATER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.8
INCHES AT LCH. THE LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MSTR FROM ABOUT 900-700 MB
WHILE THE CRP SHOWS MORE OF A CAP AT 850 MB AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOIST LAYER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP DOESN`T REALLY START DEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTER 10Z. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES. COULD GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG IN THE WX
GRIDS. MIN TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  30  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290147
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.8
INCHES AT LCH. THE LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MSTR FROM ABOUT 900-700 MB
WHILE THE CRP SHOWS MORE OF A CAP AT 850 MB AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOIST LAYER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP DOESN`T REALLY START DEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTER 10Z. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES. COULD GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG IN THE WX
GRIDS. MIN TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. 43



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT 23Z
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THE MODELS LIFT THE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEST CONSENSUS IS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO GROVETON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST EXPANDING EAST
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS DELUGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3" PER HOUR ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
NAEFS ENSEMBLES PAINTING A SWATH OF 99TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER IVT
ACROSS THE REGION 00-12Z SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT - LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 77 WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBTLE S/W MOVING THROUGH NE
MEXICO...RAIN RATES SHOULDN`T BE HIGH BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FRIDAY GETS MORE TROUBLESOME WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND INITIALLY WAS PLANNING TO ISSUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY BUT AFTER SEEING THE HIGH
RES ARW AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO
AVOID MISSING THE THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ALLUDE TO AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE SPECIFICS ISN`T VERY HIGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG LLJ/MASSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. THINK
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA BUT
THIS PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A GOOD DEAL OF DESTABILIZATION 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL RATES AND
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE...AND AS WE SAW WITH OUR
EVENT TWO DAYS AGO THE WET GROUND AND STRONG WINDS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS COMBINATION FOR BRINGING DOWN TREES.

AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
OVER SETX WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWING AND STALLING (PROBABLY
NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE) WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH BUT COULD FOCUS STORMS MORE TOWARD
THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING-TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS IS GOING TO STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE GETS IN PRIOR PERIODS AND RECOVERY OF
LL MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR OUT INTO THE GULF AND THE REGION
GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

45

MARINE...
HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...
AND WE`LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS BUILDING SURF
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION
NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. MARINERS SHOULD STILL PLAN ON PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  30  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 290147
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.8
INCHES AT LCH. THE LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MSTR FROM ABOUT 900-700 MB
WHILE THE CRP SHOWS MORE OF A CAP AT 850 MB AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOIST LAYER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP DOESN`T REALLY START DEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTER 10Z. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES. COULD GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG IN THE WX
GRIDS. MIN TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. 43



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT 23Z
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THE MODELS LIFT THE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEST CONSENSUS IS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO GROVETON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST EXPANDING EAST
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS DELUGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3" PER HOUR ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
NAEFS ENSEMBLES PAINTING A SWATH OF 99TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER IVT
ACROSS THE REGION 00-12Z SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT - LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 77 WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBTLE S/W MOVING THROUGH NE
MEXICO...RAIN RATES SHOULDN`T BE HIGH BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FRIDAY GETS MORE TROUBLESOME WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND INITIALLY WAS PLANNING TO ISSUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY BUT AFTER SEEING THE HIGH
RES ARW AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO
AVOID MISSING THE THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ALLUDE TO AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE SPECIFICS ISN`T VERY HIGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG LLJ/MASSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. THINK
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA BUT
THIS PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A GOOD DEAL OF DESTABILIZATION 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL RATES AND
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE...AND AS WE SAW WITH OUR
EVENT TWO DAYS AGO THE WET GROUND AND STRONG WINDS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS COMBINATION FOR BRINGING DOWN TREES.

AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
OVER SETX WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWING AND STALLING (PROBABLY
NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE) WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH BUT COULD FOCUS STORMS MORE TOWARD
THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING-TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS IS GOING TO STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE GETS IN PRIOR PERIODS AND RECOVERY OF
LL MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR OUT INTO THE GULF AND THE REGION
GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

45

MARINE...
HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...
AND WE`LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS BUILDING SURF
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION
NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. MARINERS SHOULD STILL PLAN ON PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  30  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 282319
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT 23Z
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THE MODELS LIFT THE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEST CONSENSUS IS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO GROVETON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST EXPANDING EAST
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS DELUGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3" PER HOUR ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
NAEFS ENSEMBLES PAINTING A SWATH OF 99TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER IVT
ACROSS THE REGION 00-12Z SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT - LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 77 WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBTLE S/W MOVING THROUGH NE
MEXICO...RAIN RATES SHOULDN`T BE HIGH BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FRIDAY GETS MORE TROUBLESOME WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND INITIALLY WAS PLANNING TO ISSUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY BUT AFTER SEEING THE HIGH
RES ARW AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO
AVOID MISSING THE THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ALLUDE TO AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE SPECIFICS ISN`T VERY HIGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG LLJ/MASSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. THINK
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA BUT
THIS PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A GOOD DEAL OF DESTABILIZATION 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL RATES AND
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE...AND AS WE SAW WITH OUR
EVENT TWO DAYS AGO THE WET GROUND AND STRONG WINDS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS COMBINATION FOR BRINGING DOWN TREES.

AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
OVER SETX WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWING AND STALLING (PROBABLY
NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE) WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH BUT COULD FOCUS STORMS MORE TOWARD
THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING-TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS IS GOING TO STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE GETS IN PRIOR PERIODS AND RECOVERY OF
LL MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR OUT INTO THE GULF AND THE REGION
GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

45

MARINE...
HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...
AND WE`LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS BUILDING SURF
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION
NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. MARINERS SHOULD STILL PLAN ON PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  50  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 282026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO GROVETON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST EXPANDING EAST
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS DELUGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3" PER HOUR ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
NAEFS ENSEMBLES PAINTING A SWATH OF 99TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER IVT
ACROSS THE REGION 00-12Z SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT - LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 77 WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBTLE S/W MOVING THROUGH NE
MEXICO...RAIN RATES SHOULDN`T BE HIGH BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FRIDAY GETS MORE TROUBLESOME WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND INITIALLY WAS PLANNING TO ISSUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY BUT AFTER SEEING THE HIGH
RES ARW AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO
AVOID MISSING THE THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ALLUDE TO AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE SPECIFICS ISN`T VERY HIGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG LLJ/MASSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. THINK
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA BUT
THIS PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A GOOD DEAL OF DESTABILIZATION 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL RATES AND
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE...AND AS WE SAW WITH OUR
EVENT TWO DAYS AGO THE WET GROUND AND STRONG WINDS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS COMBINATION FOR BRINGING DOWN TREES.

AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
OVER SETX WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWING AND STALLING (PROBABLY
NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE) WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH BUT COULD FOCUS STORMS MORE TOWARD
THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING-TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS IS GOING TO STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE GETS IN PRIOR PERIODS AND RECOVERY OF
LL MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR OUT INTO THE GULF AND THE REGION
GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

45

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...
AND WE`LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS BUILDING SURF
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION
NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. MARINERS SHOULD STILL PLAN ON PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  50  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 281729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR/ALONG THE COAST IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY INLAND.
COULD SEE SOME PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO BE REACHED THIS EVENING AND/OR OVERNIGHT. COULD
HAVE SOME SHRA/TSRA TOO (MAINLY NORTHERN TAFS)...BUT ANTICIPATE THE
BULK OF (AND LOTS OF) SHRA/TSRA TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WARM START TO THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST OF
GALVESTON AND COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT AND PALACIOS. 75-78
DEWPOINTS ABOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH HAZY/FOGGY
CONDITIONS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SLOWLY
THIS MORNING THEN PICKING UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON SURGING
THROUGH COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THINK
THE COVERAGE IS PROBABLY GENEROUS AND HAVE PARED BACK POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES INTO MID AFTERNOON.
CAP SHOULD HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT STILL APPEARS THAT CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONCERN GROWING FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SETX FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT POINTING TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT STORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS LF QUAD OF JET COMES INTO PLAY FIRST AND
THEN BRANCHING OFF OF POLAR JET TO THE NORTH HELPS WITH SPEED
DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPIKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES... WITH LITTLE
MORE GOING ON THAN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE AS OF
4 AM... WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD /SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS IS A POSSIBILITY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
CLOSER TO SUNRISE/ BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SPOTTY WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE... BUT A
STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BETWEEN 7-8 C PER KM/
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SKY TRENDS AS THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WHAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT... WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO THESE DISTURBANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED /POSSIBLY OWING TO GUIDANCE BETTER RESOLVING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY/ AND THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STILL HIGHLIGHTING LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 TO 30 POPS/ NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION... THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX... WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL /SOME HEAVY/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... RAISING CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES /ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/... ALSO FOCUSES ATTENTION ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS... ALMOST
HALF /47 PERCENT/ OF 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
QPF BULLSEYES POPPING UP FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. WILL
NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP /OR STALLS/ FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT. OF NOTE...
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION... MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY/.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS... BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
AREAS OF 2-6NM FOG NOTED IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY LIGHT ESE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, FRI AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FETCH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME
6- 8FT SEAS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SURF AND THREATS OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS. THINK THEY`LL PROBABLY PEAK BELOW
IMPACT LEVELS TODAY (THOUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO HWY 87/124)...BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER FRI-SAT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIPITATION/LOCATION THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR GOOD POSSIBILITIES OF STORMS
EACH DAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  74  86  68  81 /  20  30  40  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  75  85  70  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  80  74  79 /  10  10  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 281630
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016


.DISCUSSION...
WARM START TO THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST OF
GALVESTON AND COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT AND PALACIOS. 75-78
DEWPOINTS ABOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH HAZY/FOGGY
CONDITIONS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SLOWLY
THIS MORNING THEN PICKING UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON SURGING
THROUGH COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THINK
THE COVERAGE IS PROBABLY GENEROUS AND HAVE PARED BACK POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES INTO MID AFTERNOON.
CAP SHOULD HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT STILL APPEARS THAT CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONCERN GROWING FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SETX FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT POINTING TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT STORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS LF QUAD OF JET COMES INTO PLAY FIRST AND
THEN BRANCHING OFF OF POLAR JET TO THE NORTH HELPS WITH SPEED
DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPIKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

45



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES... WITH LITTLE
MORE GOING ON THAN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE AS OF
4 AM... WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD /SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS IS A POSSIBILITY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
CLOSER TO SUNRISE/ BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SPOTTY WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE... BUT A
STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BETWEEN 7-8 C PER KM/
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SKY TRENDS AS THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WHAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT... WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO THESE DISTURBANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED /POSSIBLY OWING TO GUIDANCE BETTER RESOLVING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY/ AND THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STILL HIGHLIGHTING LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 TO 30 POPS/ NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION... THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX... WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL /SOME HEAVY/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... RAISING CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES /ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/... ALSO FOCUSES ATTENTION ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS... ALMOST
HALF /47 PERCENT/ OF 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
QPF BULLSEYES POPPING UP FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. WILL
NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP /OR STALLS/ FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT. OF NOTE...
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION... MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY/.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS... BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS & FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE MID & LATE MORNING HOURS AND TREND INTO
VFR TERRITORY THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND TIMING/POSITION
UNCERTAINTY. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. 47

MARINE...
AREAS OF 2-6NM FOG NOTED IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY LIGHT ESE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, FRI AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FETCH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME
6- 8FT SEAS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SURF AND THREATS OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS. THINK THEY`LL PROBABLY PEAK BELOW
IMPACT LEVELS TODAY (THOUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO HWY 87/124)...BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER FRI-SAT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIPITATION/LOCATION THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR GOOD POSSIBILITIES OF STORMS
EACH DAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  74  86  68  81 /  20  30  40  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  75  85  70  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  80  74  79 /  10  10  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 281630
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016


.DISCUSSION...
WARM START TO THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST OF
GALVESTON AND COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT AND PALACIOS. 75-78
DEWPOINTS ABOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH HAZY/FOGGY
CONDITIONS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SLOWLY
THIS MORNING THEN PICKING UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON SURGING
THROUGH COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THINK
THE COVERAGE IS PROBABLY GENEROUS AND HAVE PARED BACK POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES INTO MID AFTERNOON.
CAP SHOULD HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT STILL APPEARS THAT CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONCERN GROWING FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SETX FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT POINTING TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT STORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS LF QUAD OF JET COMES INTO PLAY FIRST AND
THEN BRANCHING OFF OF POLAR JET TO THE NORTH HELPS WITH SPEED
DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPIKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

45



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES... WITH LITTLE
MORE GOING ON THAN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE AS OF
4 AM... WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD /SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS IS A POSSIBILITY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
CLOSER TO SUNRISE/ BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SPOTTY WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE... BUT A
STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BETWEEN 7-8 C PER KM/
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SKY TRENDS AS THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WHAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT... WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO THESE DISTURBANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED /POSSIBLY OWING TO GUIDANCE BETTER RESOLVING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY/ AND THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STILL HIGHLIGHTING LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 TO 30 POPS/ NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION... THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX... WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL /SOME HEAVY/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... RAISING CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES /ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/... ALSO FOCUSES ATTENTION ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS... ALMOST
HALF /47 PERCENT/ OF 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
QPF BULLSEYES POPPING UP FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. WILL
NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP /OR STALLS/ FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT. OF NOTE...
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION... MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY/.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS... BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS & FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE MID & LATE MORNING HOURS AND TREND INTO
VFR TERRITORY THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND TIMING/POSITION
UNCERTAINTY. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. 47

MARINE...
AREAS OF 2-6NM FOG NOTED IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY LIGHT ESE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, FRI AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FETCH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME
6- 8FT SEAS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SURF AND THREATS OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS. THINK THEY`LL PROBABLY PEAK BELOW
IMPACT LEVELS TODAY (THOUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO HWY 87/124)...BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER FRI-SAT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIPITATION/LOCATION THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR GOOD POSSIBILITIES OF STORMS
EACH DAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  74  86  68  81 /  20  30  40  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  75  85  70  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  80  74  79 /  10  10  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 280914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES... WITH LITTLE
MORE GOING ON THAN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE AS OF
4 AM... WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD /SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS IS A POSSIBILITY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
CLOSER TO SUNRISE/ BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SPOTTY WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE... BUT A
STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BETWEEN 7-8 C PER KM/
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SKY TRENDS AS THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WHAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT... WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO THESE DISTURBANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED /POSSIBLY OWING TO GUIDANCE BETTER RESOLVING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY/ AND THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STILL HIGHLIGHTING LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 TO 30 POPS/ NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION... THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX... WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL /SOME HEAVY/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... RAISING CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES /ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/... ALSO FOCUSES ATTENTION ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS... ALMOST
HALF /47 PERCENT/ OF 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
QPF BULLSEYES POPPING UP FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. WILL
NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP /OR STALLS/ FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT. OF NOTE...
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION... MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY/.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS... BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS & FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE MID & LATE MORNING HOURS AND TREND INTO
VFR TERRITORY THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND TIMING/POSITION
UNCERTAINTY. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. 47

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF 2-6NM FOG NOTED IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY LIGHT ESE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, FRI AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FETCH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME
6- 8FT SEAS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SURF AND THREATS OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS. THINK THEY`LL PROBABLY PEAK BELOW
IMPACT LEVELS TODAY (THOUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO HWY 87/124)...BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER FRI-SAT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIPITATION/LOCATION THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR GOOD POSSIBILITIES OF STORMS
EACH DAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  74  86  68  81 /  10  30  40  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  75  85  70  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  80  74  79 /  10  10  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...47





000
FXUS64 KHGX 280444
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO WORK ITS WAY
INLAND...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER INLAND. KEPT THE TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN PLACE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING PERIOD. THE MODELS DO MOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER
KCLL AND KUTS THURSDAY EVENING WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM HOUSTON TO THE COAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.90 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.36
INCHES AT LCH. ONSHORE HAS RESUMED AND LOW LEVEL MSTR IS ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING BENEATH A WEAK CAP. AT 850 MB...A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MSTR LEVELS AT
BOTH BRO AND LCH. NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF NOTE AT
700-300 MB. SREF ENSEMBLES FAVOR FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SW ZONES. KARM AND KBYY ALREADY DOWN TO 5SM SO ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AS WELL WITH A LOW
OVERCAST POSSIBLE.

LOOKING AHEAD...PW VALUES REACH 2.00 INCHES LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. AS PREV FCSTER NOTED...LOOKS
LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN
FRI-SUN. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAR 1ST THRU APR
27TH IN CITY HISTORY. HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED 17.03 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE MAR 1ST...THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 15.88 INCHES BACK IN 1922.
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE SET SIMILAR RECORDS INCLUDE SUGAR LAND
(18.62 INCHES)...HOU WESTBURY (18.09 INCHES) AND COLUMBUS (18.79
INCHES). MANY OF THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORDS OCCURRED JUST LAST
YEAR. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER ALONG THE COAST FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR
INLAND AND MORE MOIST AIR OFF THE COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT -- SOME LOW CEILINGS WERE ALREADY NOTED AT KGLS AND KLBX
AT 23Z. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO
INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. KEPT THE FOG
FORMATION TRENDS BEST IN THE SITES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON PROPER. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AT KCLL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH MVFR LINGERING UNTIL 17Z FROM
KIAH TO KGLS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED GOOD CHANCES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN KCLL TO THE
METRO HOUSTON SITES AND KLBX.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEADING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE SQUALL LINE STABILIZED CONDITIONS
AROUND SERN TX TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT MURKY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BACK IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HIT THE
AREA WITH QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINS IF WE GET ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING FROM ORGANIZED
STORMS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NRN COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER.
STILL A LOT TO COME TOGETHER TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.

MARINE...
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM STILL FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND AND GALVESTON. WILL ADD SCEC FOR
GALVESTON EASTWARD 0-20NM THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED SCECS FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS NEAR BOLIVAR
SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE CLOSE AND BY THURSDAY
EVENING MAY HAVE ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 87.

GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS NEXT MORE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES WHICH WOULD WARRANT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. TIDE IMPACTS AS WELL BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...AND PROBABLY JUST TO HIGHWAY 87`S FLOOD PRONE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  87  73  86  71 /  10  20  40  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  87  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  76  81  76 /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40





000
FXUS64 KHGX 280233
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.90 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.36
INCHES AT LCH. ONSHORE HAS RESUMED AND LOW LEVEL MSTR IS ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING BENEATH A WEAK CAP. AT 850 MB...A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MSTR LEVELS AT
BOTH BRO AND LCH. NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF NOTE AT
700-300 MB. SREF ENSEMBLES FAVOR FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SW ZONES. KARM AND KBYY ALREADY DOWN TO 5SM SO ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AS WELL WITH A LOW
OVERCAST POSSIBLE.

LOOKING AHEAD...PW VALUES REACH 2.00 INCHES LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. AS PREV FCSTER NOTED...LOOKS
LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN
FRI-SUN. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 43

.CLIMATE...
THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAR 1ST THRU APR
27TH IN CITY HISTORY. HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED 17.03 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE MAR 1ST...THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 15.88 INCHES BACK IN 1922.
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE SET SIMILAR RECORDS INCLUDE SUGAR LAND
(18.62 INCHES)...HOU WESTBURY (18.09 INCHES) AND COLUMBUS (18.79
INCHES). MANY OF THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORDS OCCURRED JUST LAST
YEAR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER ALONG THE COAST FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR
INLAND AND MORE MOIST AIR OFF THE COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT -- SOME LOW CEILINGS WERE ALREADY NOTED AT KGLS AND KLBX
AT 23Z. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO
INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. KEPT THE FOG
FORMATION TRENDS BEST IN THE SITES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON PROPER. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AT KCLL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH MVFR LINGERING UNTIL 17Z FROM
KIAH TO KGLS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED GOOD CHANCES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN KCLL TO THE
METRO HOUSTON SITES AND KLBX.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEADING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE SQUALL LINE STABILIZED CONDITIONS
AROUND SERN TX TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT MURKY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BACK IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HIT THE
AREA WITH QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINS IF WE GET ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING FROM ORGANIZED
STORMS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NRN COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER.
STILL A LOT TO COME TOGETHER TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.

MARINE...
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM STILL FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND AND GALVESTON. WILL ADD SCEC FOR
GALVESTON EASTWARD 0-20NM THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED SCECS FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS NEAR BOLIVAR
SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE CLOSE AND BY THURSDAY
EVENING MAY HAVE ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 87.

GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS NEXT MORE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES WHICH WOULD WARRANT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. TIDE IMPACTS AS WELL BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...AND PROBABLY JUST TO HIGHWAY 87`S FLOOD PRONE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  87  73  86  71 /  10  20  40  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  87  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  76  81  76 /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 280233
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.90 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.36
INCHES AT LCH. ONSHORE HAS RESUMED AND LOW LEVEL MSTR IS ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING BENEATH A WEAK CAP. AT 850 MB...A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MSTR LEVELS AT
BOTH BRO AND LCH. NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF NOTE AT
700-300 MB. SREF ENSEMBLES FAVOR FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SW ZONES. KARM AND KBYY ALREADY DOWN TO 5SM SO ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AS WELL WITH A LOW
OVERCAST POSSIBLE.

LOOKING AHEAD...PW VALUES REACH 2.00 INCHES LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. AS PREV FCSTER NOTED...LOOKS
LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN
FRI-SUN. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 43

.CLIMATE...
THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAR 1ST THRU APR
27TH IN CITY HISTORY. HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED 17.03 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE MAR 1ST...THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 15.88 INCHES BACK IN 1922.
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE SET SIMILAR RECORDS INCLUDE SUGAR LAND
(18.62 INCHES)...HOU WESTBURY (18.09 INCHES) AND COLUMBUS (18.79
INCHES). MANY OF THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORDS OCCURRED JUST LAST
YEAR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER ALONG THE COAST FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR
INLAND AND MORE MOIST AIR OFF THE COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT -- SOME LOW CEILINGS WERE ALREADY NOTED AT KGLS AND KLBX
AT 23Z. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO
INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. KEPT THE FOG
FORMATION TRENDS BEST IN THE SITES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON PROPER. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AT KCLL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH MVFR LINGERING UNTIL 17Z FROM
KIAH TO KGLS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED GOOD CHANCES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN KCLL TO THE
METRO HOUSTON SITES AND KLBX.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEADING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE SQUALL LINE STABILIZED CONDITIONS
AROUND SERN TX TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT MURKY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BACK IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HIT THE
AREA WITH QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINS IF WE GET ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING FROM ORGANIZED
STORMS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NRN COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER.
STILL A LOT TO COME TOGETHER TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.

MARINE...
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM STILL FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND AND GALVESTON. WILL ADD SCEC FOR
GALVESTON EASTWARD 0-20NM THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED SCECS FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS NEAR BOLIVAR
SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE CLOSE AND BY THURSDAY
EVENING MAY HAVE ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 87.

GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS NEXT MORE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES WHICH WOULD WARRANT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. TIDE IMPACTS AS WELL BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...AND PROBABLY JUST TO HIGHWAY 87`S FLOOD PRONE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  87  73  86  71 /  10  20  40  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  87  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  76  81  76 /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 272329
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER ALONG THE COAST FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR
INLAND AND MORE MOIST AIR OFF THE COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT -- SOME LOW CEILINGS WERE ALREADY NOTED AT KGLS AND KLBX
AT 23Z. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO
INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. KEPT THE FOG
FORMATION TRENDS BEST IN THE SITES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON PROPER. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AT KCLL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH MVFR LINGERING UNTIL 17Z FROM
KIAH TO KGLS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED GOOD CHANCES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN KCLL TO THE
METRO HOUSTON SITES AND KLBX.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEADING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE SQUALL LINE STABILIZED CONDITIONS
AROUND SERN TX TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT MURKY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BACK IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HIT THE
AREA WITH QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINS IF WE GET ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING FROM ORGANIZED
STORMS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NRN COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER.
STILL A LOT TO COME TOGETHER TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.

MARINE...
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM STILL FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND AND GALVESTON. WILL ADD SCEC FOR
GALVESTON EASTWARD 0-20NM THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED SCECS FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS NEAR BOLIVAR
SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE CLOSE AND BY THURSDAY
EVENING MAY HAVE ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 87.

GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS NEXT MORE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES WHICH WOULD WARRANT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. TIDE IMPACTS AS WELL BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...AND PROBABLY JUST TO HIGHWAY 87`S FLOOD PRONE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  87  73  86  71 /  10  20  40  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  87  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  81  76  81  76 /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40





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