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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 160131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 152342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGH INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 152342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGH INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 152025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 152025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 151702
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL BE EDGING
INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR AREA TOO.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OR REASONING TO THE ONGOING FCST. BASED ON RIG
OBSERVATIONS & SAT PIX IT APPEARS AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IN
THE GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM OFF THE SW LA COAST TO WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE & SCT PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE
LATER TODAY AS THE AXIS MAKES CONTINUED WWD PROGRESS. ONCE WE GET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND ON TUE AS LLVLS OF THE ATMOS OPEN BACK UP. CORRESPONDING
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION
TO GULF MOISTURE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PACIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE AS IT RIDES UP AND OVER
RIDGE IN CNTL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER SE TX DURING THE TUE-THURS
TIME PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP...MUCH OF
IT PROBABLY WELCOME. HIGHER TOTALS THRU THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY ALONG
& SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ELSEWHERE WITH CLUSTERING, ETC BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD ISSUE. PW VALUES AROUND 2" APPEAR
TO LINGER THRU NEXT WEEKEND SO SEE NO REASON TO EXCLUDE CONTINUED
SCT PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. AS TO WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES: ECMWF SAYS AROUND SEPT 22...GFS LATER. 47

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE LET THE SCEC EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WILL BE KEEPING WITH FCST OF
LIGHT E/NELY WINDS TODAY WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING MORE E/SELY
TONIGHT/TUES. SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DURING THE WEEK BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS IS CURRENT THINKING. 41


AVIATION...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORN-
ING. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE AFTN. AS DWPTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUES MORNING WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF (MOSTLY) MVFR VIS/CIGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  89  75 /  10  40  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  89  75 /  20  50  30  50  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  86  80 /  30  60  50  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 151702
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL BE EDGING
INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR AREA TOO.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OR REASONING TO THE ONGOING FCST. BASED ON RIG
OBSERVATIONS & SAT PIX IT APPEARS AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IN
THE GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM OFF THE SW LA COAST TO WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE & SCT PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE
LATER TODAY AS THE AXIS MAKES CONTINUED WWD PROGRESS. ONCE WE GET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND ON TUE AS LLVLS OF THE ATMOS OPEN BACK UP. CORRESPONDING
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION
TO GULF MOISTURE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PACIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE AS IT RIDES UP AND OVER
RIDGE IN CNTL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER SE TX DURING THE TUE-THURS
TIME PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP...MUCH OF
IT PROBABLY WELCOME. HIGHER TOTALS THRU THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY ALONG
& SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ELSEWHERE WITH CLUSTERING, ETC BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD ISSUE. PW VALUES AROUND 2" APPEAR
TO LINGER THRU NEXT WEEKEND SO SEE NO REASON TO EXCLUDE CONTINUED
SCT PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. AS TO WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES: ECMWF SAYS AROUND SEPT 22...GFS LATER. 47

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE LET THE SCEC EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WILL BE KEEPING WITH FCST OF
LIGHT E/NELY WINDS TODAY WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING MORE E/SELY
TONIGHT/TUES. SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DURING THE WEEK BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS IS CURRENT THINKING. 41


AVIATION...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORN-
ING. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE AFTN. AS DWPTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUES MORNING WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF (MOSTLY) MVFR VIS/CIGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  89  75 /  10  40  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  89  75 /  20  50  30  50  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  86  80 /  30  60  50  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 151510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL BE EDGING
INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR AREA TOO.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OR REASONING TO THE ONGOING FCST. BASED ON RIG
OBSERVATIONS & SAT PIX IT APPEARS AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IN
THE GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM OFF THE SW LA COAST TO WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE & SCT PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE
LATER TODAY AS THE AXIS MAKES CONTINUED WWD PROGRESS. ONCE WE GET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND ON TUE AS LLVLS OF THE ATMOS OPEN BACK UP. CORRESPONDING
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION
TO GULF MOISTURE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PACIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE AS IT RIDES UP AND OVER
RIDGE IN CNTL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER SE TX DURING THE TUE-THURS
TIME PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP...MUCH OF
IT PROBABLY WELCOME. HIGHER TOTALS THRU THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY ALONG
& SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ELSEWHERE WITH CLUSTERING, ETC BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD ISSUE. PW VALUES AROUND 2" APPEAR
TO LINGER THRU NEXT WEEKEND SO SEE NO REASON TO EXCLUDE CONTINUED
SCT PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. AS TO WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES: ECMWF SAYS AROUND SEPT 22...GFS LATER. 47

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE LET THE SCEC EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WILL BE KEEPING WITH FCST OF
LIGHT E/NELY WINDS TODAY WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING MORE E/SELY
TONIGHT/TUES. SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DURING THE WEEK BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS IS CURRENT THINKING. 41


AVIATION...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORN-
ING. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE AFTN. AS DWPTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUES MORNING WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF (MOSTLY) MVFR VIS/CIGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  74  87  74  89 /  20  10  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  87  75  89 /  20  20  50  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  87  79  86 /  30  30  60  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 151510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL BE EDGING
INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR AREA TOO.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OR REASONING TO THE ONGOING FCST. BASED ON RIG
OBSERVATIONS & SAT PIX IT APPEARS AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IN
THE GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM OFF THE SW LA COAST TO WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE & SCT PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE
LATER TODAY AS THE AXIS MAKES CONTINUED WWD PROGRESS. ONCE WE GET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND ON TUE AS LLVLS OF THE ATMOS OPEN BACK UP. CORRESPONDING
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION
TO GULF MOISTURE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PACIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE AS IT RIDES UP AND OVER
RIDGE IN CNTL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER SE TX DURING THE TUE-THURS
TIME PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP...MUCH OF
IT PROBABLY WELCOME. HIGHER TOTALS THRU THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY ALONG
& SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ELSEWHERE WITH CLUSTERING, ETC BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD ISSUE. PW VALUES AROUND 2" APPEAR
TO LINGER THRU NEXT WEEKEND SO SEE NO REASON TO EXCLUDE CONTINUED
SCT PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. AS TO WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES: ECMWF SAYS AROUND SEPT 22...GFS LATER. 47

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE LET THE SCEC EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WILL BE KEEPING WITH FCST OF
LIGHT E/NELY WINDS TODAY WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING MORE E/SELY
TONIGHT/TUES. SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DURING THE WEEK BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS IS CURRENT THINKING. 41


AVIATION...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORN-
ING. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE AFTN. AS DWPTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUES MORNING WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF (MOSTLY) MVFR VIS/CIGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  74  87  74  89 /  20  10  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  87  75  89 /  20  20  50  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  87  79  86 /  30  30  60  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 150907
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OR REASONING TO THE ONGOING FCST. BASED ON RIG
OBSERVATIONS & SAT PIX IT APPEARS AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IN
THE GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM OFF THE SW LA COAST TO WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE & SCT PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE
LATER TODAY AS THE AXIS MAKES CONTINUED WWD PROGRESS. ONCE WE GET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND ON TUE AS LLVLS OF THE ATMOS OPEN BACK UP. CORRESPONDING
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION
TO GULF MOISTURE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PACIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE AS IT RIDES UP AND OVER
RIDGE IN CNTL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER SE TX DURING THE TUE-THURS
TIME PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP...MUCH OF
IT PROBABLY WELCOME. HIGHER TOTALS THRU THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY ALONG
& SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ELSEWHERE WITH CLUSTERING, ETC BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD ISSUE. PW VALUES AROUND 2" APPEAR
TO LINGER THRU NEXT WEEKEND SO SEE NO REASON TO EXCLUDE CONTINUED
SCT PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. AS TO WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES: ECMWF SAYS AROUND SEPT 22...GFS LATER. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE LET THE SCEC EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WILL BE KEEPING WITH FCST OF
LIGHT E/NELY WINDS TODAY WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING MORE E/SELY
TONIGHT/TUES. SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DURING THE WEEK BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS IS CURRENT THINKING. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORN-
ING. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE AFTN. AS DWPTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUES MORNING WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF (MOSTLY) MVFR VIS/CIGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  74  87  74  89 /  20  10  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  87  75  89 /  20  20  50  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  87  79  86 /  30  30  60  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 150907
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OR REASONING TO THE ONGOING FCST. BASED ON RIG
OBSERVATIONS & SAT PIX IT APPEARS AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IN
THE GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM OFF THE SW LA COAST TO WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE & SCT PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE
LATER TODAY AS THE AXIS MAKES CONTINUED WWD PROGRESS. ONCE WE GET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND ON TUE AS LLVLS OF THE ATMOS OPEN BACK UP. CORRESPONDING
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION
TO GULF MOISTURE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PACIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE AS IT RIDES UP AND OVER
RIDGE IN CNTL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER SE TX DURING THE TUE-THURS
TIME PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP...MUCH OF
IT PROBABLY WELCOME. HIGHER TOTALS THRU THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY ALONG
& SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ELSEWHERE WITH CLUSTERING, ETC BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD ISSUE. PW VALUES AROUND 2" APPEAR
TO LINGER THRU NEXT WEEKEND SO SEE NO REASON TO EXCLUDE CONTINUED
SCT PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. AS TO WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES: ECMWF SAYS AROUND SEPT 22...GFS LATER. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE LET THE SCEC EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WILL BE KEEPING WITH FCST OF
LIGHT E/NELY WINDS TODAY WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING MORE E/SELY
TONIGHT/TUES. SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DURING THE WEEK BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS IS CURRENT THINKING. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORN-
ING. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE AFTN. AS DWPTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUES MORNING WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF (MOSTLY) MVFR VIS/CIGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  74  87  74  89 /  20  10  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  87  75  89 /  20  20  50  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  87  79  86 /  30  30  60  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 150457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF
HOUSTON SKIES ARE A MIX OF CLEAR OR BKN VFR CEILINGS. CLOSER TO
THE COAST THERE ARE STILL HIGHER BASED MVFR CEILINGS WHICH SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCT/BKN. STILL HAVE THE IDEA OF CIGS IMPROVING NEXT
3-6HRS WITH VFR DURING THE DAY. WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
GULF COULD PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND SPARK A
FEW STORMS FOR KGLS/KLBX. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW SO WILL
KEEP TSRA/SHRA OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WAS
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WAS HELPING TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT WHICH MOVED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO SHOULD BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARD LAND LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DID TWEAK THE CLOUD
COVER A BIT FOR THE UPDATE.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE STILL EXTENDS INTO SE TX ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT THAT KEPT MOISTURE TRAPPED AND
SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS HAS WEAKENED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
ERODING OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
THROUGH 01-02Z. THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AT SOME OF THE RURAL TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME TERMINALS WITH
4-5SM VSBY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TOMORROW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 150457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF
HOUSTON SKIES ARE A MIX OF CLEAR OR BKN VFR CEILINGS. CLOSER TO
THE COAST THERE ARE STILL HIGHER BASED MVFR CEILINGS WHICH SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCT/BKN. STILL HAVE THE IDEA OF CIGS IMPROVING NEXT
3-6HRS WITH VFR DURING THE DAY. WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
GULF COULD PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND SPARK A
FEW STORMS FOR KGLS/KLBX. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW SO WILL
KEEP TSRA/SHRA OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WAS
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WAS HELPING TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT WHICH MOVED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO SHOULD BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARD LAND LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DID TWEAK THE CLOUD
COVER A BIT FOR THE UPDATE.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE STILL EXTENDS INTO SE TX ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT THAT KEPT MOISTURE TRAPPED AND
SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS HAS WEAKENED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
ERODING OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
THROUGH 01-02Z. THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AT SOME OF THE RURAL TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME TERMINALS WITH
4-5SM VSBY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TOMORROW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 150248
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WAS
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WAS HELPING TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT WHICH MOVED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO SHOULD BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARD LAND LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DID TWEAK THE CLOUD
COVER A BIT FOR THE UPDATE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE STILL EXTENDS INTO SE TX ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT THAT KEPT MOISTURE TRAPPED AND
SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS HAS WEAKENED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
ERODING OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
THROUGH 01-02Z. THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AT SOME OF THE RURAL TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME TERMINALS WITH
4-5SM VSBY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TOMORROW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 150248
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WAS
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WAS HELPING TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT WHICH MOVED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO SHOULD BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARD LAND LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DID TWEAK THE CLOUD
COVER A BIT FOR THE UPDATE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE STILL EXTENDS INTO SE TX ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT THAT KEPT MOISTURE TRAPPED AND
SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS HAS WEAKENED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
ERODING OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
THROUGH 01-02Z. THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AT SOME OF THE RURAL TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME TERMINALS WITH
4-5SM VSBY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TOMORROW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 142336
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE STILL EXTENDS INTO SE TX ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT THAT KEPT MOISTURE TRAPPED AND
SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS HAS WEAKENED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
ERODING OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
THROUGH 01-02Z. THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AT SOME OF THE RURAL TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME TERMINALS WITH
4-5SM VSBY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TOMORROW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 142336
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE STILL EXTENDS INTO SE TX ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT THAT KEPT MOISTURE TRAPPED AND
SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS HAS WEAKENED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
ERODING OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
THROUGH 01-02Z. THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AT SOME OF THE RURAL TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME TERMINALS WITH
4-5SM VSBY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TOMORROW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 142041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 142041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 141729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS INLAND AND IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO LIFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 18Z TAFS HAVE THE AREA BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAINING VFR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT PATCHY MORNING
FOG AT OUR RURAL TAF SITES. FOR WINDS...MAINLY NE THIS AFTERNOON
5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN A LITTLE MORE OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING.  42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVED 12 Z SOUNDINGS FROM KLCH AND KCRP SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE PROFILE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THERE WERE SOME VERY SMALL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE SUN WILL EVENTUALLY
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW
MUCH AND WHEN. THE ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION WILL DRASTICALLY
AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 18C
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP WHEN THE SUN BEGINS TO BREAK
OUT. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO SEVERELY UNDERESTIMATE CLOUD COVER
WHILE THE NAM HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB. GIVEN THIS AND THE
MOISTURE PROFILE FROM OBSERVED AND FORECASTED SOUNDINGS THINKING
THE SUN WILL COME OUT LATER RATHER THAN SOONER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 12 Z NAM. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY COOL WX ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDINESS COULD BE SLOW TO BREAK TODAY (IF IT
DOES)...POSSIBLY LATE AFTN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS`LL BE THE KEY
AS TO HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM UP TODAY AND ATTM FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
GOING WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
OUT AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROF IN THE GULF MOVE CLOSER.
UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOPS BEFORE THE
AXIS APPROACHES THE WRN GULF COAST LATE MON. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A BUMP IN ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES...WHICH`LL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE. MODELS THIS MORNING AREN`T HOWEVER SHOWING QUITE AS
MUCH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SE TX AS PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SCT COVERAGE ESP THE SRN
HALF OF SE TX. WOULD ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL TREND (NEAR COAST AT NIGHT/MORNINGS EXPANDING INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. OVERALL...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FCST. 47

MARINE...
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS HELP-
ING TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS A BIT ELEVATED THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE DROPPING THE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID MORN
OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FCST FOR THE OFFSHORE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT LINGERING
IN THE AREA INTERACTS WITH A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING WWD TOWARD THE LOW-
ER TX COASTLINE.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  91  75  90 /   0   0  40  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  79  88  80  89 /   0  20  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 141729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS INLAND AND IFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO LIFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 18Z TAFS HAVE THE AREA BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAINING VFR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT PATCHY MORNING
FOG AT OUR RURAL TAF SITES. FOR WINDS...MAINLY NE THIS AFTERNOON
5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN A LITTLE MORE OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING.  42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVED 12 Z SOUNDINGS FROM KLCH AND KCRP SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE PROFILE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THERE WERE SOME VERY SMALL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE SUN WILL EVENTUALLY
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW
MUCH AND WHEN. THE ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION WILL DRASTICALLY
AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 18C
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP WHEN THE SUN BEGINS TO BREAK
OUT. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO SEVERELY UNDERESTIMATE CLOUD COVER
WHILE THE NAM HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB. GIVEN THIS AND THE
MOISTURE PROFILE FROM OBSERVED AND FORECASTED SOUNDINGS THINKING
THE SUN WILL COME OUT LATER RATHER THAN SOONER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 12 Z NAM. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY COOL WX ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDINESS COULD BE SLOW TO BREAK TODAY (IF IT
DOES)...POSSIBLY LATE AFTN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS`LL BE THE KEY
AS TO HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM UP TODAY AND ATTM FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
GOING WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
OUT AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROF IN THE GULF MOVE CLOSER.
UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOPS BEFORE THE
AXIS APPROACHES THE WRN GULF COAST LATE MON. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A BUMP IN ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES...WHICH`LL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE. MODELS THIS MORNING AREN`T HOWEVER SHOWING QUITE AS
MUCH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SE TX AS PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SCT COVERAGE ESP THE SRN
HALF OF SE TX. WOULD ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL TREND (NEAR COAST AT NIGHT/MORNINGS EXPANDING INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. OVERALL...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FCST. 47

MARINE...
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS HELP-
ING TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS A BIT ELEVATED THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE DROPPING THE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID MORN
OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FCST FOR THE OFFSHORE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT LINGERING
IN THE AREA INTERACTS WITH A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING WWD TOWARD THE LOW-
ER TX COASTLINE.  41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  91  75  90 /   0   0  40  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  79  88  80  89 /   0  20  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 141504
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVED 12 Z SOUNDINGS FROM KLCH AND KCRP SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE PROFILE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THERE WERE SOME VERY SMALL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE SUN WILL EVENTUALLY
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW
MUCH AND WHEN. THE ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION WILL DRASTICALLY
AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 18C
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP WHEN THE SUN BEGINS TO BREAK
OUT. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO SEVERELY UNDERESTIMATE CLOUD COVER
WHILE THE NAM HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB. GIVEN THIS AND THE
MOISTURE PROFILE FROM OBSERVED AND FORECASTED SOUNDINGS THINKING
THE SUN WILL COME OUT LATER RATHER THAN SOONER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 12 Z NAM. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY COOL WX ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDINESS COULD BE SLOW TO BREAK TODAY (IF IT
DOES)...POSSIBLY LATE AFTN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS`LL BE THE KEY
AS TO HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM UP TODAY AND ATTM FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
GOING WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
OUT AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROF IN THE GULF MOVE CLOSER.
UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOPS BEFORE THE
AXIS APPROACHES THE WRN GULF COAST LATE MON. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A BUMP IN ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES...WHICH`LL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE. MODELS THIS MORNING AREN`T HOWEVER SHOWING QUITE AS
MUCH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SE TX AS PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SCT COVERAGE ESP THE SRN
HALF OF SE TX. WOULD ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL TREND (NEAR COAST AT NIGHT/MORNINGS EXPANDING INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. OVERALL...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FCST. 47

MARINE...
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS HELP-
ING TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS A BIT ELEVATED THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE DROPPING THE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID MORN
OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FCST FOR THE OFFSHORE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT LINGERING
IN THE AREA INTERACTS WITH A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING WWD TOWARD THE LOW-
ER TX COASTLINE.  41

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
THE DRIER AIR LOFT MIXING DOWN. NO MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS NEXT TAF
PACKAGE FOR ANY OF THE SITES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
MON MORNING WILL BE DECREASED PER THE DEEPENING DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER SE TX. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  91  75  90 /   0   0  40  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  79  88  80  89 /   0  20  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 141504
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVED 12 Z SOUNDINGS FROM KLCH AND KCRP SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE PROFILE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THERE WERE SOME VERY SMALL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE SUN WILL EVENTUALLY
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW
MUCH AND WHEN. THE ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION WILL DRASTICALLY
AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 18C
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP WHEN THE SUN BEGINS TO BREAK
OUT. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO SEVERELY UNDERESTIMATE CLOUD COVER
WHILE THE NAM HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB. GIVEN THIS AND THE
MOISTURE PROFILE FROM OBSERVED AND FORECASTED SOUNDINGS THINKING
THE SUN WILL COME OUT LATER RATHER THAN SOONER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 12 Z NAM. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY COOL WX ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDINESS COULD BE SLOW TO BREAK TODAY (IF IT
DOES)...POSSIBLY LATE AFTN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS`LL BE THE KEY
AS TO HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM UP TODAY AND ATTM FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
GOING WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
OUT AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROF IN THE GULF MOVE CLOSER.
UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOPS BEFORE THE
AXIS APPROACHES THE WRN GULF COAST LATE MON. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A BUMP IN ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES...WHICH`LL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE. MODELS THIS MORNING AREN`T HOWEVER SHOWING QUITE AS
MUCH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SE TX AS PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SCT COVERAGE ESP THE SRN
HALF OF SE TX. WOULD ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL TREND (NEAR COAST AT NIGHT/MORNINGS EXPANDING INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. OVERALL...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FCST. 47

MARINE...
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS HELP-
ING TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS A BIT ELEVATED THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE DROPPING THE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID MORN
OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FCST FOR THE OFFSHORE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT LINGERING
IN THE AREA INTERACTS WITH A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING WWD TOWARD THE LOW-
ER TX COASTLINE.  41

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
THE DRIER AIR LOFT MIXING DOWN. NO MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS NEXT TAF
PACKAGE FOR ANY OF THE SITES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
MON MORNING WILL BE DECREASED PER THE DEEPENING DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER SE TX. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  91  75  90 /   0   0  40  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  79  88  80  89 /   0  20  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 140850
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY COOL WX ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDINESS COULD BE SLOW TO BREAK TODAY (IF IT
DOES)...POSSIBLY LATE AFTN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS`LL BE THE KEY
AS TO HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM UP TODAY AND ATTM FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
GOING WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
OUT AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROF IN THE GULF MOVE CLOSER.
UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOPS BEFORE THE
AXIS APPROACHES THE WRN GULF COAST LATE MON. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A BUMP IN ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES...WHICH`LL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE. MODELS THIS MORNING AREN`T HOWEVER SHOWING QUITE AS
MUCH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SE TX AS PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SCT COVERAGE ESP THE SRN
HALF OF SE TX. WOULD ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL TREND (NEAR COAST AT NIGHT/MORNINGS EXPANDING INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. OVERALL...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FCST. 47

&&

.MARINE...
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS HELP-
ING TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS A BIT ELEVATED THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE DROPPING THE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID MORN
OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FCST FOR THE OFFSHORE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT LINGERING
IN THE AREA INTERACTS WITH A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING WWD TOWARD THE LOW-
ER TX COASTLINE.  41

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
THE DRIER AIR LOFT MIXING DOWN. NO MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS NEXT TAF
PACKAGE FOR ANY OF THE SITES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
MON MORNING WILL BE DECREASED PER THE DEEPENING DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER SE TX. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  91  75  90 /   0   0  40  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  79  88  80  89 /   0  20  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 140850
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY COOL WX ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDINESS COULD BE SLOW TO BREAK TODAY (IF IT
DOES)...POSSIBLY LATE AFTN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS`LL BE THE KEY
AS TO HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM UP TODAY AND ATTM FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
GOING WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
OUT AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROF IN THE GULF MOVE CLOSER.
UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOPS BEFORE THE
AXIS APPROACHES THE WRN GULF COAST LATE MON. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A BUMP IN ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES...WHICH`LL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE. MODELS THIS MORNING AREN`T HOWEVER SHOWING QUITE AS
MUCH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SE TX AS PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SCT COVERAGE ESP THE SRN
HALF OF SE TX. WOULD ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL TREND (NEAR COAST AT NIGHT/MORNINGS EXPANDING INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. OVERALL...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FCST. 47

&&

.MARINE...
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS HELP-
ING TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS A BIT ELEVATED THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE DROPPING THE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID MORN
OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FCST FOR THE OFFSHORE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT LINGERING
IN THE AREA INTERACTS WITH A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING WWD TOWARD THE LOW-
ER TX COASTLINE.  41

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
THE DRIER AIR LOFT MIXING DOWN. NO MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS NEXT TAF
PACKAGE FOR ANY OF THE SITES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
MON MORNING WILL BE DECREASED PER THE DEEPENING DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER SE TX. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  91  75  90 /   0   0  40  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  79  88  80  89 /   0  20  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 140433
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THE NEXT 6-12HRS WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT FROM 15Z-19Z. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND 6-10KTS
ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP CLOSER TO 5 KTS
IN THE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY SATURATED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 AND 700 MB WILL KEEP
CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
WELL OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OFFSHORE. DO NOT THINK THESE WILL WORK THEIR
WAY INLAND AT THIS TIME.

TWEAKED SKY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.

40

CLIMATE...
AS OF 8 PM...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT COLLEGE STATION FOR TODAY
HAS BEEN 69. IF THIS HOLDS UP...THIS WILL BREAK THE RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER 13TH WHICH CURRENTLY IS 72 SET
BACK IN 1974.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT BREAKS SO COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR BUT
THEN THINK MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOP AS AIRMASS COOLS OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 15-18Z TOMORROW AND THEN SHOULD SEE BKN CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000FT. WINDS WILL BE NNE SLOWLY TURNING TO ENE NEXT 24HRS
WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  71  92  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  86  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 140141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
841 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY SATURATED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 AND 700 MB WILL KEEP
CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
WELL OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OFFSHORE. DO NOT THINK THESE WILL WORK THEIR
WAY INLAND AT THIS TIME.

TWEAKED SKY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.

40

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 8 PM...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT COLLEGE STATION FOR TODAY
HAS BEEN 69. IF THIS HOLDS UP...THIS WILL BREAK THE RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER 13TH WHICH CURRENTLY IS 72 SET
BACK IN 1974.

40


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT BREAKS SO COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR BUT
THEN THINK MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOP AS AIRMASS COOLS OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 15-18Z TOMORROW AND THEN SHOULD SEE BKN CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000FT. WINDS WILL BE NNE SLOWLY TURNING TO ENE NEXT 24HRS
WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCLL
ONLY REACHING 67 DEGREES AS OF 230 PM. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
OF THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH. STILL
THOUGH... MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ALLOWING THE WARM UP TO
COMMENCE. THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FLORIDA HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK
LESS AND LESS DEFINED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2.00" MONDAY AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTING WEDNESDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY MODELS
SUGGEST A WET UPCOMING FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT... AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS. POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE
RAISED ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING LOWER PWAT AIR INTO
THE REGION AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURE VALUES. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY EAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO WEAK LOW PRESSURE EDGES WESTWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  71  92  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  86  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 140141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
841 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY SATURATED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 AND 700 MB WILL KEEP
CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
WELL OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OFFSHORE. DO NOT THINK THESE WILL WORK THEIR
WAY INLAND AT THIS TIME.

TWEAKED SKY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.

40

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 8 PM...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT COLLEGE STATION FOR TODAY
HAS BEEN 69. IF THIS HOLDS UP...THIS WILL BREAK THE RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER 13TH WHICH CURRENTLY IS 72 SET
BACK IN 1974.

40


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT BREAKS SO COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR BUT
THEN THINK MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOP AS AIRMASS COOLS OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 15-18Z TOMORROW AND THEN SHOULD SEE BKN CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000FT. WINDS WILL BE NNE SLOWLY TURNING TO ENE NEXT 24HRS
WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCLL
ONLY REACHING 67 DEGREES AS OF 230 PM. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
OF THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH. STILL
THOUGH... MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ALLOWING THE WARM UP TO
COMMENCE. THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FLORIDA HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK
LESS AND LESS DEFINED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2.00" MONDAY AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTING WEDNESDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY MODELS
SUGGEST A WET UPCOMING FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT... AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS. POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE
RAISED ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING LOWER PWAT AIR INTO
THE REGION AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURE VALUES. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY EAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO WEAK LOW PRESSURE EDGES WESTWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  71  92  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  86  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 132333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECITON...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT BREAKS SO COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR BUT
THEN THINK MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOP AS AIRMASS COOLS OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 15-18Z TOMORROW AND THEN SHOULD SEE BKN CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000FT. WINDS WILL BE NNE SLOWLY TURNING TO ENE NEXT 24HRS
WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCLL
ONLY REACHING 67 DEGREES AS OF 230 PM. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
OF THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH. STILL
THOUGH... MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ALLOWING THE WARM UP TO
COMMENCE. THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FLORIDA HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK
LESS AND LESS DEFINED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2.00" MONDAY AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTING WEDNESDAY. NOT SUPRISINGLY MODELS
SUGGEST A WET UPCOMING FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT... AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS. POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE
RAISED ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING LOWER PWAT AIR INTO
THE REGION AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURE VALUES. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY EAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO WEAK LOW PRESSURE EDGES WESTWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  71  92  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  86  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 132333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECITON...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT BREAKS SO COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR BUT
THEN THINK MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOP AS AIRMASS COOLS OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 15-18Z TOMORROW AND THEN SHOULD SEE BKN CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000FT. WINDS WILL BE NNE SLOWLY TURNING TO ENE NEXT 24HRS
WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCLL
ONLY REACHING 67 DEGREES AS OF 230 PM. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
OF THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH. STILL
THOUGH... MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ALLOWING THE WARM UP TO
COMMENCE. THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FLORIDA HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK
LESS AND LESS DEFINED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2.00" MONDAY AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTING WEDNESDAY. NOT SUPRISINGLY MODELS
SUGGEST A WET UPCOMING FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT... AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS. POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE
RAISED ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING LOWER PWAT AIR INTO
THE REGION AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURE VALUES. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY EAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO WEAK LOW PRESSURE EDGES WESTWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  71  92  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  86  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 132013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCLL
ONLY REACHING 67 DEGREES AS OF 230 PM. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
OF THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH. STILL
THOUGH... MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ALLOWING THE WARM UP TO
COMMENCE. THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FLORIDA HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK
LESS AND LESS DEFINED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2.00" MONDAY AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTING WEDNESDAY. NOT SUPRISINGLY MODELS
SUGGEST A WET UPCOMING FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT... AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS. POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE
RAISED ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING LOWER PWAT AIR INTO
THE REGION AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURE VALUES. 23

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY EAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO WEAK LOW PRESSURE EDGES WESTWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  71  92  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  86  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 132013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCLL
ONLY REACHING 67 DEGREES AS OF 230 PM. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
OF THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH. STILL
THOUGH... MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ALLOWING THE WARM UP TO
COMMENCE. THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FLORIDA HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK
LESS AND LESS DEFINED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2.00" MONDAY AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTING WEDNESDAY. NOT SUPRISINGLY MODELS
SUGGEST A WET UPCOMING FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT... AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS. POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE
RAISED ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING LOWER PWAT AIR INTO
THE REGION AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURE VALUES. 23

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY EAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO WEAK LOW PRESSURE EDGES WESTWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  71  92  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  86  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 131738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
AT 17Z...TAF SITES ARE A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR WITH CEILINGS IN A
600-1600 FOOT RANGE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME BREAKS
TRYING TO DEVELOP...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL THAT THERE WILL BE
AS MUCH IMPROVEMENT (BECOMING VFR) DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
INDICATED BY A MAJORITY OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS...SO FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH MVFR LEVELS AND CALL FOR CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT
AND BREAK AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY
SOME SPOTTY SHRA INLAND AND SHRA/TSRA OFF THE COAST. WILL MONITOR
THESE CLOSELY AND AMEND THE TAFS IF NEEDED.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT KGLS AND KLBX FELL
AT THE LATEST OB THANKS TO CAA THAT HAS ALLOWED LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE CWA. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL MIGHT BE TO HIGH IN SOME AREAS AS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD
ALSO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE PARTS OF THE AREA...THE FRONT
HAS NOW MADE IT TO THE COAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE COASTAL
SW ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
TRAINING PRECIP SHOULD BE LOCATED. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH...DRIER & COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WILL STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS (PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2") AND
ISO/SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL PROBABLY EARLY AFTN
UNTIL THE SLIGHT CONVERGENT ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA AT H85
RESOLVES. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND TO FOLLOW INLAND (BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT ACTIVITY
PERSIST WELL OFFSHORE).

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON DISTURBED WX OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. ATTM CONDITIONS STILL DON`T LOOK
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO SE TX LATE MON THRU LATE
WED. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FUTURE BUMPS UPWARD WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY.
MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDE INTO THE REGION MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK & GRADUALLY SHUNT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE SW. 47

MARINE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. SEEING DECENT WINDS/
GUSTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (PER OBS) AND GIVEN THE MID/UPPER 50 DEW-
POINTS MOVING THIS WAY...WILL GO AHEAD WITH CAUTION FLAGS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY (WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT).

DECREASED WIND SPEEDS BY SUN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON/TUES
BUT SELY WINDS THEREAFTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  65  87  71  91 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  68  88  73  89 /  30  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  74  86  80  88 /  30  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 131738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
AT 17Z...TAF SITES ARE A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR WITH CEILINGS IN A
600-1600 FOOT RANGE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME BREAKS
TRYING TO DEVELOP...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL THAT THERE WILL BE
AS MUCH IMPROVEMENT (BECOMING VFR) DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
INDICATED BY A MAJORITY OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS...SO FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH MVFR LEVELS AND CALL FOR CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT
AND BREAK AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY
SOME SPOTTY SHRA INLAND AND SHRA/TSRA OFF THE COAST. WILL MONITOR
THESE CLOSELY AND AMEND THE TAFS IF NEEDED.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT KGLS AND KLBX FELL
AT THE LATEST OB THANKS TO CAA THAT HAS ALLOWED LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE CWA. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL MIGHT BE TO HIGH IN SOME AREAS AS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD
ALSO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE PARTS OF THE AREA...THE FRONT
HAS NOW MADE IT TO THE COAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE COASTAL
SW ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
TRAINING PRECIP SHOULD BE LOCATED. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH...DRIER & COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WILL STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS (PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2") AND
ISO/SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL PROBABLY EARLY AFTN
UNTIL THE SLIGHT CONVERGENT ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA AT H85
RESOLVES. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND TO FOLLOW INLAND (BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT ACTIVITY
PERSIST WELL OFFSHORE).

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON DISTURBED WX OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. ATTM CONDITIONS STILL DON`T LOOK
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO SE TX LATE MON THRU LATE
WED. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FUTURE BUMPS UPWARD WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY.
MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDE INTO THE REGION MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK & GRADUALLY SHUNT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE SW. 47

MARINE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. SEEING DECENT WINDS/
GUSTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (PER OBS) AND GIVEN THE MID/UPPER 50 DEW-
POINTS MOVING THIS WAY...WILL GO AHEAD WITH CAUTION FLAGS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY (WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT).

DECREASED WIND SPEEDS BY SUN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON/TUES
BUT SELY WINDS THEREAFTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  65  87  71  91 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  68  88  73  89 /  30  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  74  86  80  88 /  30  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 131509
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1009 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT KGLS AND KLBX FELL
AT THE LATEST OB THANKS TO CAA THAT HAS ALLOWED LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE CWA. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL MIGHT BE TO HIGH IN SOME AREAS AS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD
ALSO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE PARTS OF THE AREA...THE FRONT
HAS NOW MADE IT TO THE COAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE COASTAL
SW ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
TRAINING PRECIP SHOULD BE LOCATED. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH...DRIER & COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WILL STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS (PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2") AND
ISO/SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL PROBABLY EARLY AFTN
UNTIL THE SLIGHT CONVERGENT ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA AT H85
RESOLVES. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND TO FOLLOW INLAND (BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT ACTIVITY
PERSIST WELL OFFSHORE).

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON DISTURBED WX OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. ATTM CONDITIONS STILL DON`T LOOK
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO SE TX LATE MON THRU LATE
WED. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FUTURE BUMPS UPWARD WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY.
MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDE INTO THE REGION MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK & GRADUALLY SHUNT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE SW. 47

MARINE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. SEEING DECENT WINDS/
GUSTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (PER OBS) AND GIVEN THE MID/UPPER 50 DEW-
POINTS MOVING THIS WAY...WILL GO AHEAD WITH CAUTION FLAGS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY (WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT).

DECREASED WIND SPEEDS BY SUN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON/TUES
BUT SELY WINDS THEREAFTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. 41

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT/NEAR THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH MOST OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PCPN FOCUSED ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS
WELL. HOWEVER THE IFR CIGS MAY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL MID MORNING (OR SO)
WHEN THE DRIER AIR DEEPENS WITH CONTINUED CAA. SHOULD BE VFR THE RE-
MAINDER OF THE DAY/TONIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  65  87  71  91 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  68  88  73  89 /  30  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  74  86  80  88 /  30  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 130916
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
416 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE PARTS OF THE AREA...THE FRONT
HAS NOW MADE IT TO THE COAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE COASTAL
SW ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
TRAINING PRECIP SHOULD BE LOCATED. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH...DRIER & COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WILL STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS (PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2") AND
ISO/SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL PROBABLY EARLY AFTN
UNTIL THE SLIGHT CONVERGENT ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA AT H85
RESOLVES. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND TO FOLLOW INLAND (BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT ACTIVITY
PERSIST WELL OFFSHORE).

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON DISTURBED WX OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. ATTM CONDITIONS STILL DON`T LOOK
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO SE TX LATE MON THRU LATE
WED. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FUTURE BUMPS UPWARD WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY.
MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDE INTO THE REGION MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK & GRADUALLY SHUNT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE SW. 47

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. SEEING DECENT WINDS/
GUSTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (PER OBS) AND GIVEN THE MID/UPPER 50 DEW-
POINTS MOVING THIS WAY...WILL GO AHEAD WITH CAUTION FLAGS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY (WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT).

DECREASED WIND SPEEDS BY SUN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON/TUES
BUT SELY WINDS THEREAFTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT/NEAR THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH MOST OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PCPN FOCUSED ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS
WELL. HOWEVER THE IFR CIGS MAY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL MID MORNING (OR SO)
WHEN THE DRIER AIR DEEPENS WITH CONTINUED CAA. SHOULD BE VFR THE RE-
MAINDER OF THE DAY/TONIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  65  87  71  91 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  68  88  73  89 /  30  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  74  86  80  88 /  30  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 130916
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
416 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE PARTS OF THE AREA...THE FRONT
HAS NOW MADE IT TO THE COAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE COASTAL
SW ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
TRAINING PRECIP SHOULD BE LOCATED. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH...DRIER & COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WILL STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS (PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2") AND
ISO/SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL PROBABLY EARLY AFTN
UNTIL THE SLIGHT CONVERGENT ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA AT H85
RESOLVES. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND TO FOLLOW INLAND (BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT ACTIVITY
PERSIST WELL OFFSHORE).

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON DISTURBED WX OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. ATTM CONDITIONS STILL DON`T LOOK
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO SE TX LATE MON THRU LATE
WED. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FUTURE BUMPS UPWARD WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY.
MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDE INTO THE REGION MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK & GRADUALLY SHUNT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE SW. 47

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. SEEING DECENT WINDS/
GUSTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (PER OBS) AND GIVEN THE MID/UPPER 50 DEW-
POINTS MOVING THIS WAY...WILL GO AHEAD WITH CAUTION FLAGS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY (WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT).

DECREASED WIND SPEEDS BY SUN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON/TUES
BUT SELY WINDS THEREAFTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT/NEAR THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH MOST OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PCPN FOCUSED ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS
WELL. HOWEVER THE IFR CIGS MAY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL MID MORNING (OR SO)
WHEN THE DRIER AIR DEEPENS WITH CONTINUED CAA. SHOULD BE VFR THE RE-
MAINDER OF THE DAY/TONIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  65  87  71  91 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  68  88  73  89 /  30  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  74  86  80  88 /  30  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





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