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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191734
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWING CU/STRATOCU ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PATCHING FOG IN
THE MORNING FOR THE RURAL AREAS. HOUSTON TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR
BUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY
CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST BOTH MVFR DECKS AND PATCHY FOG. NAM
SEEMS MORE AGGRESSIVE SO LEANED MORE ON THE GFS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
JUST SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE 1ST PERIOD FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER (SKY GRID) TRENDS. WHILE EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE BURNED OFF...SATELLITE LOOPS ARE INDICATING A
SURGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD ATTM. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AREAS OF FOG (SOME DENSE) ARE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
BAY CITY AREA TO ANGLETON. EXPECT EVERYTHING TO LIFT AND BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHWEST MEXICO AREA SPREADS THIS WAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP (SEE SPC`S DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK).
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT END UP BEING ON THE BREEZY SIDE.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 191528
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1028 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE 1ST PERIOD FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER (SKY GRID) TRENDS. WHILE EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE BURNED OFF...SATELLITE LOOPS ARE INDICATING A
SURGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD ATTM. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AREAS OF FOG (SOME DENSE) ARE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
BAY CITY AREA TO ANGLETON. EXPECT EVERYTHING TO LIFT AND BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHWEST MEXICO AREA SPREADS THIS WAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP (SEE SPC`S DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK).
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT END UP BEING ON THE BREEZY SIDE.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 191142
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. HIGH CANOPY WITH A VEERING EASTERLY BREEZE TO ONSHORE BY
MID-DAY. A HIGHER PROB OF RADIATIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY THWART AREAWIDE DENSE...BUT WITH A
WEAK WIND FIELD...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MORE
RURAL WIND-PROTECTED TERMINALS BY SUNRISE EASTER. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG (SOME DENSE) ARE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE BAY
CITY AREA TO ANGLETON. EXPECT EVERYTHING TO LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO AREA SPREADS THIS WAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP (SEE SPC`S
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK). ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT END UP BEING ON THE BREEZY SIDE.  42

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT NEARING THE WATERS TUESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY WASH OUT INLAND...
TURNING MARITIME WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WINDS...PICK
SEA HEIGHTS UP A COUPLE OF FEET BY LATE WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190857
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADD MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG (SOME DENSE) ARE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE BAY
CITY AREA TO ANGLETON. EXPECT EVERYTHING TO LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO AREA SPREADS THIS WAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP (SEE SPC`S
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK). ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT END UP BEING ON THE BREEZY SIDE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK
FOR SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KLBX AND KCXO.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 53F AT BOTH SITES. LOOKS LIKE KCXO
WILL GET THERE NOT SURE ABOUT KLBX. THIS AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP WINDS TAME BUT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW CIRRUS
WILL START TO COVER THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT NEARING THE WATERS TUESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY WASH OUT INLAND...
TURNING MARITIME WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WINDS...PICK SEA HEIGHTS
UP A COUPLE OF FEET BY LATE WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190825
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG (SOME DENSE) ARE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE BAY
CITY AREA TO ANGLETON. EXPECT EVERYTHING TO LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO AREA SPREADS THIS WAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP (SEE SPC`S
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK). ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT END UP BEING ON THE BREEZY SIDE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK
FOR SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KLBX AND KCXO.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 53F AT BOTH SITES. LOOKS LIKE KCXO
WILL GET THERE NOT SURE ABOUT KLBX. THIS AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP WINDS TAME BUT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW CIRRUS
WILL START TO COVER THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 23
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190441
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK
FOR SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KLBX AND KCXO.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 53F AT BOTH SITES. LOOKS LIKE KCXO
WILL GET THERE NOT SURE ABOUT KLBX. THIS AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP WINDS TAME BUT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW CIRRUS
WILL START TO COVER THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE THIS PACKAGE WITH A FEW TWEEKS TO SKY COVER
AND A FEW OTHER FIELDS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE...EXPECT AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD TO CONTINE TO STEAM
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT LIKELY NOTHING MUCH AS LONG AS WE ARE EAST
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THEN. TEMPS AND
WINDS LOOK ON TARGET. ALSO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THIS
MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. A CIRRUS DECK IS ALSO FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CIRRUS
SHOULD HELP VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT AT RURAL
SITES SUCH AS KCXO AND KLBX. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT CAA/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...LOOKS
LIKE DRY/MILD WX TO PERSIST ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SUN...BUT MODELS KEEP-
ING WITH THE DRIER TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKES A MORE NLY
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. THIS SYS-
TEM PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE AS AN-
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS REINFORCING AIRMASS
TO BRING DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK.

DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL HELP THE RETURN FLOW RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HERALD THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND WARMER TEMPS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT
TERRIBLY KEEN REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW POPS UNTIL NEXT FRI OR
SO (AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND) WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE UPPER
(SUBTROPICAL) JET. 41

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK. LOW
SEAS WILL PERSIST. WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON TUE
BUT LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SE WINDS/SEAS DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  57  80  59  80 /  10   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  58  80  60  81 /  10   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  64  76  64  77 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190220
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE THIS PACKAGE WITH A FEW TWEEKS TO SKY COVER
AND A FEW OTHER FIELDS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE...EXPECT AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD TO CONTINE TO STEAM
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT LIKELY NOTHING MUCH AS LONG AS WE ARE EAST
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THEN. TEMPS AND
WINDS LOOK ON TARGET. ALSO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THIS
MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. A CIRRUS DECK IS ALSO FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CIRRUS
SHOULD HELP VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT AT RURAL
SITES SUCH AS KCXO AND KLBX. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT CAA/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...LOOKS
LIKE DRY/MILD WX TO PERSIST ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SUN...BUT MODELS KEEP-
ING WITH THE DRIER TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKES A MORE NLY
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. THIS SYS-
TEM PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE AS AN-
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS REINFORCING AIRMASS
TO BRING DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK.

DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL HELP THE RETURN FLOW RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HERALD THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND WARMER TEMPS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT
TERRIBLY KEEN REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW POPS UNTIL NEXT FRI OR
SO (AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND) WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE UPPER
(SUBTROPICAL) JET. 41

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK. LOW
SEAS WILL PERSIST. WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON TUE
BUT LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SE WINDS/SEAS DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  80  59  80  63 /   0  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  60  81  64 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  76  64  77  68 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 182251
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THIS
MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. A CIRRUS DECK IS ALSO FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CIRRUS
SHOULD HELP VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT AT RURAL
SITES SUCH AS KCXO AND KLBX. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT CAA/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...LOOKS
LIKE DRY/MILD WX TO PERSIST ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SUN...BUT MODELS KEEP-
ING WITH THE DRIER TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKES A MORE NLY
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. THIS SYS-
TEM PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE AS AN-
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS REINFORCING AIRMASS
TO BRING DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK.

DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL HELP THE RETURN FLOW RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HERALD THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND WARMER TEMPS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT
TERRIBLY KEEN REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW POPS UNTIL NEXT FRI OR
SO (AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND) WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE UPPER
(SUBTROPICAL) JET. 41

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK. LOW
SEAS WILL PERSIST. WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON TUE
BUT LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SE WINDS/SEAS DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  80  59  80  63 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  60  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  64  77  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 182045
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT CAA/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...LOOKS
LIKE DRY/MILD WX TO PERSIST ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SUN...BUT MODELS KEEP-
ING WITH THE DRIER TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKES A MORE NLY
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. THIS SYS-
TEM PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE AS AN-
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS REINFORCING AIRMASS
TO BRING DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK.

DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL HELP THE RETURN FLOW RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HERALD THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND WARMER TEMPS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT
TERRIBLY KEEN REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW POPS UNTIL NEXT FRI OR
SO (AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND) WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE UPPER
(SUBTROPICAL) JET. 41

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK. LOW
SEAS WILL PERSIST. WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON TUE
BUT LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SE WINDS/SEAS DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  80  59  80  63 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  60  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  64  77  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST ATTM. CURRENT TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  80  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  59  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  76  64  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181632
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST ATTM. CURRENT TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK.
41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. RAIN WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. OVERALL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NOT MUCH RAINFALL. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  80  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  59  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  76  64  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41





000
FXUS64 KHGX 181124
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OVERCAST TO BREAK UP THROUGH MORNING TO A FEW-SCT DECK OR
SCT CIRRUS. A WEAK EARLY DAY BOUNDARY PASSAGE HAS NORTHEASTERN
BREEZES BEHIND IT...BECOMING VRB TO SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. THIS
DRIER AIR MASS FILLING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
RAIN WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
NOT MUCH RAINFALL.  42

MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A
BACKED 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TURN A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY BREEZE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY MID
SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WHERE AN APPROACHING INLAND BOUNDARY VEERS LIGHT WINDS
MORE WESTERLY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK ONSHORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK
UP BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN
PLAINS PRESSURE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  80  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  59  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  76  64  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180905
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
RAIN WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
NOT MUCH RAINFALL.  42
&&

.MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A
BACKED 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TURN A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY BREEZE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY MID
SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WHERE AN APPROACHING INLAND BOUNDARY VEERS LIGHT WINDS
MORE WESTERLY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK ONSHORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK
UP BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN
PLAINS PRESSURE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  80  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  59  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  76  64  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180432
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH SOME MVFR FURTHER TOWARDS THE
WEST. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING... THINK THIS WILL BE LIMITED THOUGH AS CLOUDS SHOULD
HOLD IN. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE TOWARDS THE WEST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS BY THE AREA. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE DAY. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY BRINGING A CIRRUS
SHIELD BACK OVERHEAD. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER STILL WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LOWER CIGS TO THE
WEST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS GOING ON AND PROBABLY WILL
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADD 20 POPS TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THIS LIGHT PRECIP. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE OF
COURSE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE HAVE RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF A LIBERTY TO CONROE TO CALDWELL LINE 1 TO 3
DEGREES.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN START
TO VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  58  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  63  75  66  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180303
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER STILL WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LOWER CIGS TO THE
WEST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS GOING ON AND PROBABLY WILL
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADD 20 POPS TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THIS LIGHT PRECIP. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE OF
COURSE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE HAVE RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF A LIBERTY TO CONROE TO CALDWELL LINE 1 TO 3
DEGREES.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN START
TO VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  78  58  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  59  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  75  66  76  66 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 172308
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
608 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN START
TO VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  58  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  59  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  75  66  76  66 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 172033
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  58  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  59  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  75  66  76  66 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171723
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1223 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
1ST UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HAS MOVED E OF THE TAF
SITES. SAT PIX SHOW BRIEF SCATTERING OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE HOW
LONG THIS`LL LAST. SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC TRANSPORTING SOME
LLVL MOISTURE IN FROM THE WRN GULF AND SCNTL TX. CURRENT OBS &
SOME FCST SOUNDING SHOW SOME 1500-3000 FT CIGS DEVELOPING AND
PERSISTING THRU THE AFTN. DIDN`T GO THAT PESSIMISTIC...YET...BUT
DID TEMPO FOR THE 18-21Z AS TRENDS LOOK LIKE THAT IS A
POSSIBILITY. WILL UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER. COULD SEE AN ISO SHRA/TSRA LATER IN THE DAY WITH ANOTHER
S/W NEARING BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE AS MUCH COVERAGE AND WON`T
ADVERTISE IN 18Z TAFS. VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
IT...IMPROVING TO VFR TOWARD MID MORNING FRI.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING SOUTH
OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST. MAIN AREA OF LIST WITH THE SYSTEM
IS OFF THE COAST WITH A BROAD AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF. LOOKING AT 12Z LCH SOUNDING THERE
APPEARS TO BE A THIN MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB THAT WOULD MAKE
LIFTING THOSE PARCELS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE IT. AS
THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO COME
TO AN END. THERE IS A SECOND SHORT WAVE BACK OVER THE S PLAINS
WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP 20 POPS DURING THIS TIME AS LEAD SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW 12Z GUIDANCE HANDLES THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GIVEN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...ALSO KNOCKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. MAY REACH 70F IN A FEW AREAS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
THAT. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  57  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  63  75  66  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171527
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING SOUTH
OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST. MAIN AREA OF LIST WITH THE SYSTEM
IS OFF THE COAST WITH A BROAD AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF. LOOKING AT 12Z LCH SOUNDING THERE
APPEARS TO BE A THIN MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB THAT WOULD MAKE
LIFTING THOSE PARCELS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE IT. AS
THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO COME
TO AN END. THERE IS A SECOND SHORT WAVE BACK OVER THE S PLAINS
WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP 20 POPS DURING THIS TIME AS LEAD SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW 12Z GUIDANCE HANDLES THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GIVEN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...ALSO KNOCKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. MAY REACH 70F IN A FEW AREAS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...

SENT OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. SEEING ISOLATED STORMS IN
WHARTON AND FORT BEND COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS
OFFSHORE WHERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FEET. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH OCASSIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRINGER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...STAYED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  57  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  63  75  66  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171210
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...

SENT OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. SEEING ISOLATED STORMS IN
WHARTON AND FORT BEND COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS
OFFSHORE WHERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FEET. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH OCASSIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRINGER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...STAYED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  57  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  63  75  66  76 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 171150
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FEET. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH OCASSIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRINGER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...STAYED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SCT SHWRS FORMING JUST WEST OF SE TX TONIGHT AS A SHRT WV
APPROACHES. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR AND RAP) ARE
INDICATING THAT WE WILL SEE CONTINUED SCT SHWR DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
SO...BUMPED POPS UP SOME TODAY AND WILL MENTION SHWRS INLAND WITH
SOME TSTMS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH ABUNDANT HIGH/MID PACIFIC
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER A MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHRT WV TODAY/THIS EVE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRI AND WE WILL SEE
SOME BRIEF DRYING. WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE BATTLING A CAP TO GET PRECIP GOING AS THE
MID/UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE CHC POPS
ACROSS NW AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA MOVING INTO SE TX AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT TO SEE A
TEMPORARY MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TUE AFT THROUGH
WED...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK. 33

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT
BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE 00-60 NM WATERS.
THE AREA COULD SEE SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TODAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ONSHORE
WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  57  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  63  75  66  76 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 170824
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SCT SHWRS FORMING JUST WEST OF SE TX TONIGHT AS A SHRT WV
APPROACHES. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR AND RAP) ARE
INDICATING THAT WE WILL SEE CONTINUED SCT SHWR DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
SO...BUMPED POPS UP SOME TODAY AND WILL MENTION SHWRS INLAND WITH
SOME TSTMS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH ABUNDANT HIGH/MID PACIFIC
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER A MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHRT WV TODAY/THIS EVE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRI AND WE WILL SEE
SOME BRIEF DRYING. WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL BE BATTLING A CAP TO GET PRECIP GOING AS THE
MID/UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE CHC POPS
ACROSS NW AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA MOVING INTO SE TX AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT TO SEE A
TEMPORARY MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TUE AFT THROUGH
WED...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT
BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE 00-60 NM WATERS.
THE AREA COULD SEE SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TODAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ONSHORE
WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  57  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  63  75  66  76 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 170523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1223 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS FOR HOU SHOWS AN MVFR DECK LIKELY IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. PWATS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH ANGLETON UP TO 0.8" AND CLIMBING. NEW NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR CIGS AND MORE CLOSELY
MATCH GFS NOW. CIRRUS HAS ALSO MOVED IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE
AREA. TOMORROW AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TO NOT
AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AT KGLS FROM THIS BUT AS OF NOW SYSTEM LOOKS TO FAR
SOUTH SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST AS SUBTROPICAL JET S/W MOVES
INTO BIG BEND/DRT REGION. LOWER CLOUDS ALSO COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT MOST SITES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY BY 3
AM. TEMPERATURES FALL SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY AFTER 9 AM AS
S/W PASSES AND PROFILE MOISTENS.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE
FORMING IN WEST TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HELP WINDS TO CALM DOWN A BIT. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD
CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS EVENING JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING IFR TO LIFR CIGS FORMING TONIGHT WHILE
GFS... RAP... AND SREF SHOWING MVFR CIGS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALSO HELP WINDS
FROM FULLY DECOUPLING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS). THIS WOULD
FAVOR MVFR CIGS INSTEAD OF LIFR/ IFR. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
7-DAY PERIOD. THE FIRST AFFECTS THE GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD SE TX THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY STAY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES RECEDE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REBUILDS THE RIDGE OVER THE LA AND UPPER TX
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES UNDER
20 PERCENT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GULF
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE UNDER THE CAP ON THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. ON SUNDAY THE BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH THE JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTION
OVER SE TX. THE GFS BUFR IS STILL CAPPED WHILE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
ARE BOTH DRY ON SATURDAY AND ACTUALLY KEEP THE BULK OF THE QPF TO
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS...10
PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...WENT WITH 20 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS WELL SINCE BOTH MODELS KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST BOTH PERIODS.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS
BECOME REESTABLISHED FRIDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH
REGARD TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE AFTER 03Z WITH THE NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY LOWER CIGS. NAM12
VERIFIED WELL FROM YESTERDAY BUT FEEL IT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE GFS. THE GFS SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  52  72  57  78 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  55  73  58  80 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  61  72  63  75 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 170224
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
924 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST AS SUBTROPICAL JET S/W MOVES
INTO BIG BEND/DRT REGION. LOWER CLOUDS ALSO COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT MOST SITES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY BY 3
AM. TEMPERATURES FALL SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY AFTER 9 AM AS
S/W PASSES AND PROFILE MOISTENS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE
FORMING IN WEST TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HELP WINDS TO CALM DOWN A BIT. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD
CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS EVENING JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING IFR TO LIFR CIGS FORMING TONIGHT WHILE
GFS... RAP... AND SREF SHOWING MVFR CIGS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALSO HELP WINDS
FROM FULLY DECOUPLING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS). THIS WOULD
FAVOR MVFR CIGS INSTEAD OF LIFR/ IFR. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
7-DAY PERIOD. THE FIRST AFFECTS THE GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD SE TX THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY STAY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES RECEDE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REBUILDS THE RIDGE OVER THE LA AND UPPER TX
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES UNDER
20 PERCENT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GULF
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE UNDER THE CAP ON THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. ON SUNDAY THE BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH THE JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTION
OVER SE TX. THE GFS BUFR IS STILL CAPPED WHILE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
ARE BOTH DRY ON SATURDAY AND ACTUALLY KEEP THE BULK OF THE QPF TO
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS...10
PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...WENT WITH 20 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS WELL SINCE BOTH MODELS KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST BOTH PERIODS.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS
BECOME REESTABLISHED FRIDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH
REGARD TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE AFTER 03Z WITH THE NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY LOWER CIGS. NAM12
VERIFIED WELL FROM YESTERDAY BUT FEEL IT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE GFS. THE GFS SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  72  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  73  58  80  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  72  63  75  66 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 162303
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
603 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE
FORMING IN WEST TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HELP WINDS TO CALM DOWN A BIT. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD
CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS EVENING JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING IFR TO LIFR CIGS FORMING TONIGHT WHILE
GFS... RAP... AND SREF SHOWING MVFR CIGS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALSO HELP WINDS
FROM FULLY DECOUPLING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS). THIS WOULD
FAVOR MVFR CIGS INSTEAD OF LIFR/ IFR. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
7-DAY PERIOD. THE FIRST AFFECTS THE GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD SE TX THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY STAY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES RECEDE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REBUILDS THE RIDGE OVER THE LA AND UPPER TX
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES UNDER
20 PERCENT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GULF
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE UNDER THE CAP ON THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. ON SUNDAY THE BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH THE JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTION
OVER SE TX. THE GFS BUFR IS STILL CAPPED WHILE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
ARE BOTH DRY ON SATURDAY AND ACTUALLY KEEP THE BULK OF THE QPF TO
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS...10
PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...WENT WITH 20 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS WELL SINCE BOTH MODELS KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST BOTH PERIODS.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS
BECOME REESTABLISHED FRIDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH
REGARD TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE AFTER 03Z WITH THE NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY LOWER CIGS. NAM12
VERIFIED WELL FROM YESTERDAY BUT FEEL IT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE GFS. THE GFS SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  72  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  73  58  80  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  72  63  75  66 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4
     AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 162013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
7-DAY PERIOD. THE FIRST AFFECTS THE GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE INLAND AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD SE TX THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY STAY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES RECEDE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REBUILDS THE RIDGE OVER THE LA AND UPPER TX
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES UNDER
20 PERCENT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GULF
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE UNDER THE CAP ON THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. ON SUNDAY THE BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH THE JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTION
OVER SE TX. THE GFS BUFR IS STILL CAPPED WHILE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
ARE BOTH DRY ON SATURDAY AND ACTUALLY KEEP THE BULK OF THE QPF TO
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS...10
PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...WENT WITH 20 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS WELL SINCE BOTH MODELS KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST BOTH PERIODS.

40

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS
BECOME REESTABLISHED FRIDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH
REGARD TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE AFTER 03Z WITH THE NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY LOWER CIGS. NAM12
VERIFIED WELL FROM YESTERDAY BUT FEEL IT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE GFS. THE GFS SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  72  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  73  58  80  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  72  63  75  66 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...43





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