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000
FXUS64 KHGX 110541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE THOU/TIAH/KHGX
VAD WIND PROFILERS ARE ALL SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL. HOUSTON IAH RAP FORECAST
WIND PROFILES SHOW THESE WINDS MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH 12Z AND THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST
BRIEF LLWS CONDITIONS FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS TO
INCLUDE LLWS MAY BE NEEDED IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY... WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWING STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 20 TO POSSIBLY 25
KNOTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. AFTER 12/06Z... PATCHY RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT AHEAD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. TWEAKED THE MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE IN THE EAST WHERE THE
AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER START TO THE
EVENING...VERY MINOR CHANGES.

MAY NEED TO DO AN UPDATE FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE SW
AREAS AROUND EDNA/WHARTON/PALACIOS/WEST COLUMBIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW SATURATION OCCURRING BUT ATTM THINKING
JUST ENOUGH WIND MAY KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              47  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 110541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE THOU/TIAH/KHGX
VAD WIND PROFILERS ARE ALL SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL. HOUSTON IAH RAP FORECAST
WIND PROFILES SHOW THESE WINDS MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH 12Z AND THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST
BRIEF LLWS CONDITIONS FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS TO
INCLUDE LLWS MAY BE NEEDED IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY... WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWING STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 20 TO POSSIBLY 25
KNOTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. AFTER 12/06Z... PATCHY RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT AHEAD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. TWEAKED THE MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE IN THE EAST WHERE THE
AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER START TO THE
EVENING...VERY MINOR CHANGES.

MAY NEED TO DO AN UPDATE FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE SW
AREAS AROUND EDNA/WHARTON/PALACIOS/WEST COLUMBIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW SATURATION OCCURRING BUT ATTM THINKING
JUST ENOUGH WIND MAY KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              47  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 110541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE THOU/TIAH/KHGX
VAD WIND PROFILERS ARE ALL SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL. HOUSTON IAH RAP FORECAST
WIND PROFILES SHOW THESE WINDS MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH 12Z AND THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST
BRIEF LLWS CONDITIONS FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS TO
INCLUDE LLWS MAY BE NEEDED IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY... WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWING STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 20 TO POSSIBLY 25
KNOTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. AFTER 12/06Z... PATCHY RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT AHEAD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. TWEAKED THE MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE IN THE EAST WHERE THE
AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER START TO THE
EVENING...VERY MINOR CHANGES.

MAY NEED TO DO AN UPDATE FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE SW
AREAS AROUND EDNA/WHARTON/PALACIOS/WEST COLUMBIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW SATURATION OCCURRING BUT ATTM THINKING
JUST ENOUGH WIND MAY KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              47  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 110106
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT AHEAD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. TWEAKED THE MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE IN THE EAST WHERE THE
AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER START TO THE
EVENING...VERY MINOR CHANGES.

MAY NEED TO DO AN UPDATE FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE SW
AREAS AROUND EDNA/WHARTON/PALACIOS/WEST COLUMBIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW SATURATION OCCURRING BUT ATTM THINKING
JUST ENOUGH WIND MAY KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH... WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.
SKC GENERALLY EXPECTED SAVE FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS ON THURSDAY.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              47  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 110106
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT AHEAD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. TWEAKED THE MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE IN THE EAST WHERE THE
AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER START TO THE
EVENING...VERY MINOR CHANGES.

MAY NEED TO DO AN UPDATE FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE SW
AREAS AROUND EDNA/WHARTON/PALACIOS/WEST COLUMBIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW SATURATION OCCURRING BUT ATTM THINKING
JUST ENOUGH WIND MAY KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH... WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.
SKC GENERALLY EXPECTED SAVE FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS ON THURSDAY.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              47  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 110106
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT AHEAD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. TWEAKED THE MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE IN THE EAST WHERE THE
AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER START TO THE
EVENING...VERY MINOR CHANGES.

MAY NEED TO DO AN UPDATE FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE SW
AREAS AROUND EDNA/WHARTON/PALACIOS/WEST COLUMBIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW SATURATION OCCURRING BUT ATTM THINKING
JUST ENOUGH WIND MAY KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH... WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.
SKC GENERALLY EXPECTED SAVE FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS ON THURSDAY.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              47  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 102337
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
537 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH... WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.
SKC GENERALLY EXPECTED SAVE FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS ON THURSDAY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 102337
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
537 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH... WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.
SKC GENERALLY EXPECTED SAVE FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS ON THURSDAY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 102124
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

&&

.FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47




000
FXUS64 KHGX 102124
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

&&

.FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47





000
FXUS64 KHGX 102124
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDED INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS AND
BECOME STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE VERY LITTLE CAPE FORECASTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
SOUNDING PROFILES FORECAST A DECENT CAP AT 700 MB ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CAP BEING ERODED WHEN A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

40

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH WHEREAS SPEEDS MIGHT
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND THURS MORNING BEYOND 20 NM.
WILL FORGO THE FLAGS ATTM AND JUST GO W/ 15KT AND LET THE EVENING
CREW RE- EVALUATE THINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW/S FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION ON SAT CAUSING WINDS TO GO ENE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE SE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. THERE`S STILL SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE - BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO OCCUR LATE MON
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. 47

&&

.FIRE...
RH`S WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THURS/FRI AS LLVL MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE. RH`S LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
30-35% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 ON THURS...AND 35-60% SOUTH OF I-10
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN
PLACE AND WOULD BE AWARE THAT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15MPH
DURING THE MID MORNING THRU AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  76  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  76  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  70  57  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47





000
FXUS64 KHGX 101719
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE/S THRU THE
DAY. SPEEDS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A GULF INFLUENCE AND
EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS COMPARED
TO POINTS EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 101719
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE/S THRU THE
DAY. SPEEDS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A GULF INFLUENCE AND
EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS COMPARED
TO POINTS EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 101547
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL
HELP DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A GULF INFLUENCE AND EXPECT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS COMPARED TO
POINTS EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME S/SSW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW INTO A 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE OUT OF THE SSW/SW. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY RISE
ON THU/FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING ON SUN AND PASSING THROUGH SE TX ON MONDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF AND WEAK CF MOVE IN FROM THE NE AND STALL ACROSS
SE TX ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS
2ND BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD...SO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. 33


MARINE...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 42

FIRE...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25% TO 30% INLAND AND 40% TO 45% AT THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47





000
FXUS64 KHGX 101547
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL
HELP DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A GULF INFLUENCE AND EXPECT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS COMPARED TO
POINTS EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME S/SSW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW INTO A 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE OUT OF THE SSW/SW. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY RISE
ON THU/FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING ON SUN AND PASSING THROUGH SE TX ON MONDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF AND WEAK CF MOVE IN FROM THE NE AND STALL ACROSS
SE TX ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS
2ND BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD...SO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. 33


MARINE...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 42

FIRE...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25% TO 30% INLAND AND 40% TO 45% AT THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47





000
FXUS64 KHGX 101547
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL
HELP DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A GULF INFLUENCE AND EXPECT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS COMPARED TO
POINTS EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME S/SSW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW INTO A 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE OUT OF THE SSW/SW. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY RISE
ON THU/FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING ON SUN AND PASSING THROUGH SE TX ON MONDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF AND WEAK CF MOVE IN FROM THE NE AND STALL ACROSS
SE TX ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS
2ND BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD...SO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. 33


MARINE...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 42

FIRE...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25% TO 30% INLAND AND 40% TO 45% AT THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47




000
FXUS64 KHGX 101144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME S/SSW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW INTO A 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE OUT OF THE SSW/SW. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY RISE
ON THU/FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING ON SUN AND PASSING THROUGH SE TX ON MONDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF AND WEAK CF MOVE IN FROM THE NE AND STALL ACROSS
SE TX ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS
2ND BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD...SO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. 33


MARINE...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 42

FIRE...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25% TO 30% INLAND AND 40% TO 45% AT THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 101144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME S/SSW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW INTO A 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE OUT OF THE SSW/SW. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY RISE
ON THU/FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING ON SUN AND PASSING THROUGH SE TX ON MONDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF AND WEAK CF MOVE IN FROM THE NE AND STALL ACROSS
SE TX ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS
2ND BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD...SO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. 33


MARINE...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 42

FIRE...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25% TO 30% INLAND AND 40% TO 45% AT THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 101144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME S/SSW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW INTO A 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE OUT OF THE SSW/SW. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY RISE
ON THU/FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING ON SUN AND PASSING THROUGH SE TX ON MONDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF AND WEAK CF MOVE IN FROM THE NE AND STALL ACROSS
SE TX ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS
2ND BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD...SO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. 33


MARINE...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 42

FIRE...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25% TO 30% INLAND AND 40% TO 45% AT THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 100910
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY RISE
ON THU/FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING ON SUN AND PASSING THROUGH SE TX ON MONDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF AND WEAK CF MOVE IN FROM THE NE AND STALL ACROSS
SE TX ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS
2ND BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD...SO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 42

&&

.FIRE...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25% TO 30% INLAND AND 40% TO 45% AT THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 100910
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. STILL HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/SW AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
WARMUP THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY RISE
ON THU/FRI.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING ON SUN AND PASSING THROUGH SE TX ON MONDAY.
WILL SEE A BRIEF AND WEAK CF MOVE IN FROM THE NE AND STALL ACROSS
SE TX ON SATURDAY. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS
2ND BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD...SO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN PERSIST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 42

&&

.FIRE...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25% TO 30% INLAND AND 40% TO 45% AT THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  49  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  50  76  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  56  70  56  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 100545
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 06Z TAFS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
STATE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
TOMORROW... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AROUND
MIDDAY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 8 TO 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS/CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR STILL BLANKETING THE REGION. LOW
LEVELS VERY SLOWLY MOISTENING UP WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS THAT THE REGION WILL
AGAIN COOL DOWN QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT MENTION IN WX GRIDS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL
TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES STILL DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20 PERCENT WEST TO LOWER TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE
EAST.

TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL SUPPRESSED AND WILL CONTINUE THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON TAP OVERNIGHT
THE NORMAL TIDAL CYCLE SHOULD RETURN AND LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  71  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  64  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 100545
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 06Z TAFS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
STATE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
TOMORROW... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AROUND
MIDDAY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 8 TO 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS/CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR STILL BLANKETING THE REGION. LOW
LEVELS VERY SLOWLY MOISTENING UP WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS THAT THE REGION WILL
AGAIN COOL DOWN QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT MENTION IN WX GRIDS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL
TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES STILL DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20 PERCENT WEST TO LOWER TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE
EAST.

TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL SUPPRESSED AND WILL CONTINUE THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON TAP OVERNIGHT
THE NORMAL TIDAL CYCLE SHOULD RETURN AND LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  71  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  64  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 100545
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 06Z TAFS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
STATE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
TOMORROW... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AROUND
MIDDAY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 8 TO 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS/CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR STILL BLANKETING THE REGION. LOW
LEVELS VERY SLOWLY MOISTENING UP WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS THAT THE REGION WILL
AGAIN COOL DOWN QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT MENTION IN WX GRIDS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL
TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES STILL DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20 PERCENT WEST TO LOWER TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE
EAST.

TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL SUPPRESSED AND WILL CONTINUE THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON TAP OVERNIGHT
THE NORMAL TIDAL CYCLE SHOULD RETURN AND LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  71  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  64  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 100325
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016


.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR STILL BLANKETING THE REGION. LOW
LEVELS VERY SLOWLY MOISTENING UP WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS THAT THE REGION WILL
AGAIN COOL DOWN QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT MENTION IN WX GRIDS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL
TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S EAST TO
LOWER 70S WEST WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES STILL DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20 PERCENT WEST TO LOWER TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE
EAST.

TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL SUPPRESSED AND WILL CONTINUE THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON TAP OVERNIGHT
THE NORMAL TIDAL CYCLE SHOULD RETURN AND LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 7 TO
10 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN
TEXAS TONIGHT. SFC DEW PTS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT RH VALUES STILL BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. SHAVED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS GENERALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SE TX. 500
HEIGHTS BUILD AND 850 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD WARMUP IS ON TAP. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL AS PRESSURES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FALL. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE SATURDAY
OR SAT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS REDEVELOP WITH A SURGE OF SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE. DON`T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE MSTR RETURN AS
PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SATURATED LAYER
EXTENDING TO ONLY 850 MB WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. COULD STILL GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
UNDER THE CAP ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SHARPER
WITH THE S/WV TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THESE
FEATURES AND CONSEQUENTLY DRIER. MSTR LEVELS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE
AND WITH CAPPING EVIDENT...FEEL THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. 43

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND...WITH RED RIVER VALLEY PRESSURES LOWERING...
THE MID INTO LATE WEEK WIND PATTERN WILL LEND ITSELF MORE MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING GULF SCEC CONDITIONS WILL TAPER
OFF FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. LOWERING SOUTHERN PLAINS PRESSURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND PICK SEAS BACK UP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIDE LEVELS REMAIN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET BELOW NORMAL. LOW TIDE IS
ONGOING SO TIDE LEVELS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR MINIMUM VALUES AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE UPPER REACHES OF GALVESTON BAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THIS MIGHT BE DROPPED WITH THE MARINE UPDATE AT 930
PM.  31

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WESTERN CORRIDOR WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO BE TRUNCATED TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE INTERIOR LOW
TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE BY
WEEK`S CLOSE AND THIS WILL PUSH HUMIDITIES BACK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON 50
PERCENTILE RANGE GOING INTO MID FEBRUARY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  71  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  64  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 092332
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 7 TO
10 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN
TEXAS TONIGHT. SFC DEW PTS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT RH VALUES STILL BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. SHAVED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS GENERALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SE TX. 500
HEIGHTS BUILD AND 850 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD WARMUP IS ON TAP. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL AS PRESSURES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FALL. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE SATURDAY
OR SAT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS REDEVELOP WITH A SURGE OF SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE. DON`T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE MSTR RETURN AS
PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SATURATED LAYER
EXTENDING TO ONLY 850 MB WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. COULD STILL GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
UNDER THE CAP ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SHARPER
WITH THE S/WV TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THESE
FEATURES AND CONSEQUENTLY DRIER. MSTR LEVELS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE
AND WITH CAPPING EVIDENT...FEEL THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. 43

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND...WITH RED RIVER VALLEY PRESSURES LOWERING...
THE MID INTO LATE WEEK WIND PATTERN WILL LEND ITSELF MORE MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING GULF SCEC CONDITIONS WILL TAPER
OFF FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. LOWERING SOUTHERN PLAINS PRESSURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND PICK SEAS BACK UP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIDE LEVELS REMAIN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET BELOW NORMAL. LOW TIDE IS
ONGOING SO TIDE LEVELS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR MINIMUM VALUES AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE UPPER REACHES OF GALVESTON BAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THIS MIGHT BE DROPPED WITH THE MARINE UPDATE AT 930
PM.  31

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WESTERN CORRIDOR WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO BE TRUNCATED TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE INTERIOR LOW
TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE BY
WEEK`S CLOSE AND THIS WILL PUSH HUMIDITIES BACK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON 50
PERCENTILE RANGE GOING INTO MID FEBRUARY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  69  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  65  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 092332
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 7 TO
10 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN
TEXAS TONIGHT. SFC DEW PTS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT RH VALUES STILL BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. SHAVED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS GENERALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SE TX. 500
HEIGHTS BUILD AND 850 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD WARMUP IS ON TAP. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL AS PRESSURES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FALL. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE SATURDAY
OR SAT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS REDEVELOP WITH A SURGE OF SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE. DON`T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE MSTR RETURN AS
PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SATURATED LAYER
EXTENDING TO ONLY 850 MB WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. COULD STILL GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
UNDER THE CAP ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SHARPER
WITH THE S/WV TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THESE
FEATURES AND CONSEQUENTLY DRIER. MSTR LEVELS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE
AND WITH CAPPING EVIDENT...FEEL THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. 43

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND...WITH RED RIVER VALLEY PRESSURES LOWERING...
THE MID INTO LATE WEEK WIND PATTERN WILL LEND ITSELF MORE MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING GULF SCEC CONDITIONS WILL TAPER
OFF FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. LOWERING SOUTHERN PLAINS PRESSURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND PICK SEAS BACK UP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIDE LEVELS REMAIN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET BELOW NORMAL. LOW TIDE IS
ONGOING SO TIDE LEVELS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR MINIMUM VALUES AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE UPPER REACHES OF GALVESTON BAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THIS MIGHT BE DROPPED WITH THE MARINE UPDATE AT 930
PM.  31

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WESTERN CORRIDOR WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO BE TRUNCATED TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE INTERIOR LOW
TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE BY
WEEK`S CLOSE AND THIS WILL PUSH HUMIDITIES BACK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON 50
PERCENTILE RANGE GOING INTO MID FEBRUARY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  69  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  65  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 092332
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 7 TO
10 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN
TEXAS TONIGHT. SFC DEW PTS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT RH VALUES STILL BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. SHAVED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS GENERALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SE TX. 500
HEIGHTS BUILD AND 850 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD WARMUP IS ON TAP. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL AS PRESSURES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FALL. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE SATURDAY
OR SAT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS REDEVELOP WITH A SURGE OF SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE. DON`T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE MSTR RETURN AS
PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SATURATED LAYER
EXTENDING TO ONLY 850 MB WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. COULD STILL GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
UNDER THE CAP ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SHARPER
WITH THE S/WV TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THESE
FEATURES AND CONSEQUENTLY DRIER. MSTR LEVELS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE
AND WITH CAPPING EVIDENT...FEEL THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. 43

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND...WITH RED RIVER VALLEY PRESSURES LOWERING...
THE MID INTO LATE WEEK WIND PATTERN WILL LEND ITSELF MORE MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING GULF SCEC CONDITIONS WILL TAPER
OFF FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. LOWERING SOUTHERN PLAINS PRESSURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND PICK SEAS BACK UP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIDE LEVELS REMAIN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET BELOW NORMAL. LOW TIDE IS
ONGOING SO TIDE LEVELS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR MINIMUM VALUES AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE UPPER REACHES OF GALVESTON BAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THIS MIGHT BE DROPPED WITH THE MARINE UPDATE AT 930
PM.  31

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WESTERN CORRIDOR WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO BE TRUNCATED TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE INTERIOR LOW
TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE BY
WEEK`S CLOSE AND THIS WILL PUSH HUMIDITIES BACK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON 50
PERCENTILE RANGE GOING INTO MID FEBRUARY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  69  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  65  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 092056
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
256 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN
TEXAS TONIGHT. SFC DEW PTS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT RH VALUES STILL BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. SHAVED
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS GENERALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SE TX. 500
HEIGHTS BUILD AND 850 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD WARMUP IS ON TAP. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL AS PRESSURES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FALL. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE LATE SATURDAY
OR SAT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS REDEVELOP WITH A SURGE OF SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE. DON`T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE MSTR RETURN AS
PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SATURATED LAYER
EXTENDING TO ONLY 850 MB WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. COULD STILL GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
UNDER THE CAP ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SHARPER
WITH THE S/WV TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THESE
FEATURES AND CONSEQUENTLY DRIER. MSTR LEVELS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE
AND WITH CAPPING EVIDENT...FEEL THE GFS IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND...WITH RED RIVER VALLEY PRESSURES LOWERING...
THE MID INTO LATE WEEK WIND PATTERN WILL LEND ITSELF MORE MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING GULF SCEC CONDITIONS WILL TAPER
OFF FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. LOWERING SOUTHERN PLAINS PRESSURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND PICK SEAS BACK UP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIDE LEVELS REMAIN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET BELOW NORMAL. LOW TIDE IS
ONGOING SO TIDE LEVELS ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR MINIMUM VALUES AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE UPPER REACHES OF GALVESTON BAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THIS MIGHT BE DROPPED WITH THE MARINE UPDATE AT 930
PM.  31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WESTERN CORRIDOR WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO BE TRUNCATED TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE INTERIOR LOW
TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE BY
WEEK`S CLOSE AND THIS WILL PUSH HUMIDITIES BACK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON 50
PERCENTILE RANGE GOING INTO MID FEBRUARY. 31


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  69  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  69  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  65  56  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHAMBERS-
     GALVESTON-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN
     JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER.

GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 091756
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW NEAR 20 KNOT LOWER LEVEL NORTHERLIES TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN GUST THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL GO VARIABLE FOR A
GOOD PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH LOWERING RED RIVER VALLEY SURFACE PRESSURE...
WILL BACK WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GUST
OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO FEEL ITS BEST TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BUT GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND RH VALUES NEAR
15 PERCENT WILL STILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. 31/43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.  LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  40  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  41  69  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  48  63  56  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

 RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM CST.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 091748
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GUST
OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO FEEL ITS BEST TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BUT GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND RH VALUES NEAR
15 PERCENT WILL STILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. 31/43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.  LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  42

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS.  WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  40  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  41  69  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  48  63  56  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
     BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
     GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
     MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
     WASHINGTON-WHARTON.

GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GALVESTON
     BAY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 091748
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GUST
OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO FEEL ITS BEST TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BUT GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND RH VALUES NEAR
15 PERCENT WILL STILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. 31/43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.  LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  42

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS.  WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  40  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  41  69  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  48  63  56  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
     BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
     GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
     MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
     WASHINGTON-WHARTON.

GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GALVESTON
     BAY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 091748
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GUST
OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO FEEL ITS BEST TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BUT GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND RH VALUES NEAR
15 PERCENT WILL STILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. 31/43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.  LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  42

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS.  WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  40  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  41  69  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  48  63  56  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
     BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
     GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
     MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
     WASHINGTON-WHARTON.

GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GALVESTON
     BAY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 091607
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.  LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  42

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS.  WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  40  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  41  69  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  48  63  56  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 091138
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.  LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  42

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS.  WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  40  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  41  69  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  48  63  56  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...42





000
FXUS64 KHGX 090930
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.  LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  42

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS.  WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  40  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  41  69  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  48  63  56  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33





000
FXUS64 KHGX 090521
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR. WNW WINDS BECOMING NW IN THE MORNING AROUND 15Z AND
INCREASING TO 10-15KTS THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST.
45
&&

MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE LOW WATER ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE LESSENED OVER
THE BAYS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE SCEC FROM THE BAYS AND
TRANSITIONED THE GULF WATERS TO SCA IN THE 20-60NM WATERS AND SCEC
0-20NM UNTIL 9 AM WHEN WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLACKEN.
45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR TONIGHT BUT DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPTS FOR TOMORROW. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/OBS INDICATING THAT THIS
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND TOMORROW AS WELL. HOW-
EVER WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR TOMOR-
ROW GIVEN THE LIGHTER NW WINDS...THE PROGS OF VERY DEWPTS REMAIN
A CAUSE FOR CONCERN. SO ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN
PLACE. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 090521
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR. WNW WINDS BECOMING NW IN THE MORNING AROUND 15Z AND
INCREASING TO 10-15KTS THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST.
45
&&

MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE LOW WATER ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE LESSENED OVER
THE BAYS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE SCEC FROM THE BAYS AND
TRANSITIONED THE GULF WATERS TO SCA IN THE 20-60NM WATERS AND SCEC
0-20NM UNTIL 9 AM WHEN WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLACKEN.
45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR TONIGHT BUT DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPTS FOR TOMORROW. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/OBS INDICATING THAT THIS
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND TOMORROW AS WELL. HOW-
EVER WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR TOMOR-
ROW GIVEN THE LIGHTER NW WINDS...THE PROGS OF VERY DEWPTS REMAIN
A CAUSE FOR CONCERN. SO ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN
PLACE. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 090521
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR. WNW WINDS BECOMING NW IN THE MORNING AROUND 15Z AND
INCREASING TO 10-15KTS THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST.
45
&&

MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE LOW WATER ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE LESSENED OVER
THE BAYS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE SCEC FROM THE BAYS AND
TRANSITIONED THE GULF WATERS TO SCA IN THE 20-60NM WATERS AND SCEC
0-20NM UNTIL 9 AM WHEN WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLACKEN.
45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR TONIGHT BUT DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPTS FOR TOMORROW. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/OBS INDICATING THAT THIS
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND TOMORROW AS WELL. HOW-
EVER WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR TOMOR-
ROW GIVEN THE LIGHTER NW WINDS...THE PROGS OF VERY DEWPTS REMAIN
A CAUSE FOR CONCERN. SO ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN
PLACE. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 090357
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
957 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR TONIGHT BUT DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPTS FOR TOMORROW. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS/OBS INDICATING THAT THIS
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND TOMORROW AS WELL. HOW-
EVER WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR TOMOR-
ROW GIVEN THE LIGHTER NW WINDS...THE PROGS OF VERY DEWPTS REMAIN
A CAUSE FOR CONCERN. SO ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN
PLACE. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BETWEEN 00-02Z TO
6-10KTS. WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RELAX A LITTLE AND MAY VARY MORE IN
DIRECTION.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 082352
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BETWEEN 00-02Z TO
6-10KTS. WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RELAX A LITTLE AND MAY VARY MORE IN
DIRECTION.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLY DRY AIR OVER SE TX (CONROE SFC DEW PT OF 4 DEGREES AT
2 PM) COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAS CREATED DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 7 PM BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z AND FEEL
THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 MPH BEFORE 00Z...AM A
LITTLE NERVOUS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST SO AM GOING
TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM. THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL INTO LOW/MID 30S TONIGHT. MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE BUT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MORE BENIGN AS
LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS AND A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES WED-FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
FLATTEN A BIT AS A S/WV OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES EAST ON
FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SE
TX AS PRESSURES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BEGIN TO FALL EARLY SUNDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL TX SUNDAY AFTN
AND MOVE IT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEY DIFFER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURE AND THE SHARPNESS OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH BOTH FEATURES AND GENERATES A PRETTY
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND DRIER. CHANCE POPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THINGS AS THEY ARE
UNTIL THE GFS/ECMWF CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. 43

MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6
PM CST...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. BAY AND NEARSHORE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CAUTION CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH NEARSHORE WINDS STAYING AROUND 15 KNOTS PAST
SUNRISE/LOCAL BAY WINDS TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVER
WATERS AND THEN EXITING EAST AT MID WEEK WILL WEAKEN THESE NORTH
WINDS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OVER OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...ALLOW A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND PATTERN TO BECOME DOMINANT
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT THURSDAY`S
OFFSHORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REACH CAUTION LEVELS THURSDAY. 31

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE TEENS. SUPERIMPOSE A REGIONALLY STRONG NORTH WIND FIELD AND
THIS IS WHAT WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IF NOT BEFORE TODAY...FUELS ARE BECOMING WELL CURED AND
THIS HAS EXACERBATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRE. WINDS WILL COME DOWN TONIGHT BUT...UNDER A
CONTINUED OFFSHORE BREEZE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HUMIDITIES STAY LOW PER THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE WEEK SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT WILL REACH MODERATE
NEAR 15 MPH MAGNITUDES DURING TIMES OF 40 PERCENT OR UNDER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 082352
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BETWEEN 00-02Z TO
6-10KTS. WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RELAX A LITTLE AND MAY VARY MORE IN
DIRECTION.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLY DRY AIR OVER SE TX (CONROE SFC DEW PT OF 4 DEGREES AT
2 PM) COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAS CREATED DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 7 PM BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z AND FEEL
THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 MPH BEFORE 00Z...AM A
LITTLE NERVOUS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST SO AM GOING
TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM. THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL INTO LOW/MID 30S TONIGHT. MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE BUT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MORE BENIGN AS
LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS AND A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES WED-FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
FLATTEN A BIT AS A S/WV OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES EAST ON
FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SE
TX AS PRESSURES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BEGIN TO FALL EARLY SUNDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL TX SUNDAY AFTN
AND MOVE IT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEY DIFFER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURE AND THE SHARPNESS OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH BOTH FEATURES AND GENERATES A PRETTY
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND DRIER. CHANCE POPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THINGS AS THEY ARE
UNTIL THE GFS/ECMWF CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. 43

MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6
PM CST...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. BAY AND NEARSHORE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CAUTION CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH NEARSHORE WINDS STAYING AROUND 15 KNOTS PAST
SUNRISE/LOCAL BAY WINDS TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVER
WATERS AND THEN EXITING EAST AT MID WEEK WILL WEAKEN THESE NORTH
WINDS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OVER OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...ALLOW A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND PATTERN TO BECOME DOMINANT
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT THURSDAY`S
OFFSHORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REACH CAUTION LEVELS THURSDAY. 31

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE TEENS. SUPERIMPOSE A REGIONALLY STRONG NORTH WIND FIELD AND
THIS IS WHAT WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IF NOT BEFORE TODAY...FUELS ARE BECOMING WELL CURED AND
THIS HAS EXACERBATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRE. WINDS WILL COME DOWN TONIGHT BUT...UNDER A
CONTINUED OFFSHORE BREEZE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HUMIDITIES STAY LOW PER THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE WEEK SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT WILL REACH MODERATE
NEAR 15 MPH MAGNITUDES DURING TIMES OF 40 PERCENT OR UNDER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 082352
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BETWEEN 00-02Z TO
6-10KTS. WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RELAX A LITTLE AND MAY VARY MORE IN
DIRECTION.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLY DRY AIR OVER SE TX (CONROE SFC DEW PT OF 4 DEGREES AT
2 PM) COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAS CREATED DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 7 PM BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z AND FEEL
THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 MPH BEFORE 00Z...AM A
LITTLE NERVOUS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST SO AM GOING
TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM. THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL INTO LOW/MID 30S TONIGHT. MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE BUT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MORE BENIGN AS
LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS AND A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES WED-FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
FLATTEN A BIT AS A S/WV OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES EAST ON
FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SE
TX AS PRESSURES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BEGIN TO FALL EARLY SUNDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL TX SUNDAY AFTN
AND MOVE IT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEY DIFFER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURE AND THE SHARPNESS OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH BOTH FEATURES AND GENERATES A PRETTY
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND DRIER. CHANCE POPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THINGS AS THEY ARE
UNTIL THE GFS/ECMWF CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. 43

MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6
PM CST...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. BAY AND NEARSHORE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CAUTION CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH NEARSHORE WINDS STAYING AROUND 15 KNOTS PAST
SUNRISE/LOCAL BAY WINDS TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVER
WATERS AND THEN EXITING EAST AT MID WEEK WILL WEAKEN THESE NORTH
WINDS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OVER OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...ALLOW A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND PATTERN TO BECOME DOMINANT
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT THURSDAY`S
OFFSHORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REACH CAUTION LEVELS THURSDAY. 31

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE TEENS. SUPERIMPOSE A REGIONALLY STRONG NORTH WIND FIELD AND
THIS IS WHAT WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IF NOT BEFORE TODAY...FUELS ARE BECOMING WELL CURED AND
THIS HAS EXACERBATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRE. WINDS WILL COME DOWN TONIGHT BUT...UNDER A
CONTINUED OFFSHORE BREEZE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HUMIDITIES STAY LOW PER THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE WEEK SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT WILL REACH MODERATE
NEAR 15 MPH MAGNITUDES DURING TIMES OF 40 PERCENT OR UNDER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45





000
FXUS64 KHGX 082052
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
252 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLY DRY AIR OVER SE TX (CONROE SFC DEW PT OF 4 DEGREES AT
2 PM) COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAS CREATED DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 7 PM BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z AND FEEL
THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 MPH BEFORE 00Z...AM A
LITTLE NERVOUS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST SO AM GOING
TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM. THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL INTO LOW/MID 30S TONIGHT. MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE BUT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MORE BENIGN AS
LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS AND A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES WED-FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
FLATTEN A BIT AS A S/WV OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES EAST ON
FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SE
TX AS PRESSURES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BEGIN TO FALL EARLY SUNDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL TX SUNDAY AFTN
AND MOVE IT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEY DIFFER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC FEATURE AND THE SHARPNESS OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH BOTH FEATURES AND GENERATES A PRETTY
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND DRIER. CHANCE POPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THINGS AS THEY ARE
UNTIL THE GFS/ECMWF CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6
PM CST...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. BAY AND NEARSHORE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CAUTION CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH NEARSHORE WINDS STAYING AROUND 15 KNOTS PAST
SUNRISE/LOCAL BAY WINDS TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVER
WATERS AND THEN EXITING EAST AT MID WEEK WILL WEAKEN THESE NORTH
WINDS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OVER OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...ALLOW A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND PATTERN TO BECOME DOMINANT
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE TIMES THAT THURSDAY`S
OFFSHORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REACH CAUTION LEVELS THURSDAY. 31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE TEENS. SUPERIMPOSE A REGIONALLY STRONG NORTH WIND FIELD AND
THIS IS WHAT WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IF NOT BEFORE TODAY...FUELS ARE BECOMING WELL CURED AND
THIS HAS EXACERBATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRE. WINDS WILL COME DOWN TONIGHT BUT...UNDER A
CONTINUED OFFSHORE BREEZE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HUMIDITIES STAY LOW PER THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE WEEK SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT WILL REACH MODERATE
NEAR 15 MPH MAGNITUDES DURING TIMES OF 40 PERCENT OR UNDER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  61  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  48  63  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
     BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
     GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
     MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
     WASHINGTON-WHARTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
     BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
     GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
     MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
     WASHINGTON-WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GALVESTON
     BAY-MATAGORDA BAY.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 081740
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1140 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WIND...GENERALLY IN THE
SUSTAINED 15-20KT...GUST 25-30KT...RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. SCT
CIRRUS TO CLEAR OUT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING. TODAY`S STRONG NORTHERLIES SHOULD
DECOUPLE TO UNDER 10 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
THIS WAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS REACH THE MID 40S AROUND 15-16Z TUESDAY.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

..HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. RH VALUES ARE ALREADY BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WIND GUSTS ARE APPROACHING 30 MPH. GROUND
FUELS ARE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF SE TX. NOT SURE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 25
MPH OVER THE NE ZONES TODAY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORS. NOT MUCH OF A WARM UP EXPECTED
THIS AFTN WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING FROM STRONG
WINDS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AND CURRENT FCST SUPPORTS THESE VALUES. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
TO SHOW MORE CIRRUS FOR THIS AFTN BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE
PREVIOUS FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CAN`T STATE THIS ENOUGH...IF
WORKING WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIAL TODAY...PLEASE BE CAREFUL. 43


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
PUSHING INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SFC DEW POINTS
WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS N TX AND N CENTRAL TX.
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO SE TX LATER TODAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NAMELY A DEEP TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH STRONG N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

IN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET WEATHER WEEK...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IMPACTS FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS ALREADY A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA FROM N TX. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 10F WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW MORE THAN 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850MB WHICH COULD
MIX DOWN IN THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS. WIND AT 925MB IS A LITTLE LESS
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD
ADVECTION REALLY OCCURS. TEMPS AT 850MB DROP FROM 3C-5C DOWN TO 0C
TO -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IF COLD ADVECTION
IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET DAY TIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS SUCH SHOULD
LOW DEW POINTS BE ACHIEVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW 14 TO 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND
CURED/DRY VEGETATION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER. FOR THIS REASON A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 21 2014.

OVERALL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIRMASS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MODIFY WED/THU/FRI AS
925-850MB FLOW BECOMES W/SW ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO
INCREASE. WARMING IS NOT AS DRAMATIC AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT
STILL NOTICABLE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID BOTH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AND 5 DEGREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED. 39

&&

MARINE... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE BAYS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BACK OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE THAT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS HEIGHTS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 44

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
FALL TO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE FUEL/
STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  34  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  36  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  42  58  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31





000
FXUS64 KHGX 081625
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. RH VALUES ARE ALREADY BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WIND GUSTS ARE APPROACHING 30 MPH. GROUND
FUELS ARE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF SE TX. NOT SURE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 25
MPH OVER THE NE ZONES TODAY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORS. NOT MUCH OF A WARM UP EXPECTED
THIS AFTN WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING FROM STRONG
WINDS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AND CURRENT FCST SUPPORTS THESE VALUES. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
TO SHOW MORE CIRRUS FOR THIS AFTN BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE
PREVIOUS FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CAN`T STATE THIS ENOUGH...IF
WORKING WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIAL TODAY...PLEASE BE CAREFUL. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ACCORDING TO THE KHGX VAD WIND PROFILE WINDS AT 020 ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. 44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
PUSHING INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SFC DEWPOINTS
WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS N TX AND N CENTRAL TX.
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO SE TX LATER TODAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NAMELY A DEEP TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH STRONG N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

IN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET WEATHER WEEK...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IMPACTS FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS ALREADY A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA FROM N TX. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 10F WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW MORE THAN 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850MB WHICH COULD
MIX DOWN IN THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS. WIND AT 925MB IS A LITTLE LESS
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD
ADVECTION REALLY OCCURS. TEMPS AT 850MB DROP FROM 3C-5C DOWN TO 0C
TO -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IF COLD ADVECTION
IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET DAY TIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS SUCH SHOULD
LOW DEWPOINTS BE ACHIEVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW 14 TO 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND
CURED/DRY VEGETATION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER. FOR THIS REASON A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 21 2014.

OVERALL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIRMASS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MODIFY WED/THU/FRI AS
925-850MB FLOW BECOMES W/SW ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO
INCREASE. WARMING IS NOT AS DRAMATIC AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT
STILL NOTICABLE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID BOTH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AND 5 DEGREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.

39

MARINE... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE BAYS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIANT AND BACK OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE THAT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS HEIGHTS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 44

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
FALL TO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE
FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  34  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  36  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  42  58  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 081625
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. RH VALUES ARE ALREADY BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WIND GUSTS ARE APPROACHING 30 MPH. GROUND
FUELS ARE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF SE TX. NOT SURE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 25
MPH OVER THE NE ZONES TODAY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORS. NOT MUCH OF A WARM UP EXPECTED
THIS AFTN WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING FROM STRONG
WINDS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AND CURRENT FCST SUPPORTS THESE VALUES. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
TO SHOW MORE CIRRUS FOR THIS AFTN BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE
PREVIOUS FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CAN`T STATE THIS ENOUGH...IF
WORKING WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIAL TODAY...PLEASE BE CAREFUL. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ACCORDING TO THE KHGX VAD WIND PROFILE WINDS AT 020 ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. 44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
PUSHING INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SFC DEWPOINTS
WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS N TX AND N CENTRAL TX.
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO SE TX LATER TODAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NAMELY A DEEP TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH STRONG N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

IN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET WEATHER WEEK...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IMPACTS FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS ALREADY A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA FROM N TX. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 10F WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW MORE THAN 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850MB WHICH COULD
MIX DOWN IN THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS. WIND AT 925MB IS A LITTLE LESS
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD
ADVECTION REALLY OCCURS. TEMPS AT 850MB DROP FROM 3C-5C DOWN TO 0C
TO -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IF COLD ADVECTION
IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET DAY TIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS SUCH SHOULD
LOW DEWPOINTS BE ACHIEVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW 14 TO 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND
CURED/DRY VEGETATION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER. FOR THIS REASON A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 21 2014.

OVERALL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIRMASS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MODIFY WED/THU/FRI AS
925-850MB FLOW BECOMES W/SW ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO
INCREASE. WARMING IS NOT AS DRAMATIC AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT
STILL NOTICABLE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID BOTH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AND 5 DEGREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.

39

MARINE... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE BAYS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIANT AND BACK OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE THAT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS HEIGHTS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 44

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
FALL TO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE
FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  34  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  36  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  42  58  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 081625
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. RH VALUES ARE ALREADY BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WIND GUSTS ARE APPROACHING 30 MPH. GROUND
FUELS ARE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF SE TX. NOT SURE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 25
MPH OVER THE NE ZONES TODAY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORS. NOT MUCH OF A WARM UP EXPECTED
THIS AFTN WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING FROM STRONG
WINDS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AND CURRENT FCST SUPPORTS THESE VALUES. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
TO SHOW MORE CIRRUS FOR THIS AFTN BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE
PREVIOUS FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CAN`T STATE THIS ENOUGH...IF
WORKING WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIAL TODAY...PLEASE BE CAREFUL. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ACCORDING TO THE KHGX VAD WIND PROFILE WINDS AT 020 ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. 44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
PUSHING INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SFC DEWPOINTS
WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS N TX AND N CENTRAL TX.
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO SE TX LATER TODAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NAMELY A DEEP TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH STRONG N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

IN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET WEATHER WEEK...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IMPACTS FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS ALREADY A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA FROM N TX. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 10F WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW MORE THAN 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850MB WHICH COULD
MIX DOWN IN THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS. WIND AT 925MB IS A LITTLE LESS
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD
ADVECTION REALLY OCCURS. TEMPS AT 850MB DROP FROM 3C-5C DOWN TO 0C
TO -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IF COLD ADVECTION
IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET DAY TIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS SUCH SHOULD
LOW DEWPOINTS BE ACHIEVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW 14 TO 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND
CURED/DRY VEGETATION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER. FOR THIS REASON A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 21 2014.

OVERALL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIRMASS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MODIFY WED/THU/FRI AS
925-850MB FLOW BECOMES W/SW ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO
INCREASE. WARMING IS NOT AS DRAMATIC AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT
STILL NOTICABLE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID BOTH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AND 5 DEGREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.

39

MARINE... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE BAYS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIANT AND BACK OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE THAT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS HEIGHTS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 44

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
FALL TO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE
FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  34  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  36  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  42  58  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43





000
FXUS64 KHGX 081213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ACCORDING TO THE KHGX VAD WIND PROFILE WINDS AT 020 ARE FROM THE
NORTH AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

..HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
PUSHING INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SFC DEWPOINTS
WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS N TX AND N CENTRAL TX.
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO SE TX LATER TODAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NAMELY A DEEP TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH STRONG N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

IN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET WEATHER WEEK...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IMPACTS FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS ALREADY A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA FROM N TX. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 10F WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW MORE THAN 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850MB WHICH COULD
MIX DOWN IN THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS. WIND AT 925MB IS A LITTLE LESS
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD
ADVECTION REALLY OCCURS. TEMPS AT 850MB DROP FROM 3C-5C DOWN TO 0C
TO -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IF COLD ADVECTION
IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET DAY TIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS SUCH SHOULD
LOW DEWPOINTS BE ACHIEVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW 14 TO 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND
CURED/DRY VEGETATION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER. FOR THIS REASON A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 21 2014.

OVERALL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIRMASS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MODIFY WED/THU/FRI AS
925-850MB FLOW BECOMES W/SW ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO
INCREASE. WARMING IS NOT AS DRAMATIC AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT
STILL NOTICABLE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID BOTH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AND 5 DEGREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.

39

MARINE... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE BAYS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIANT AND BACK OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE THAT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS HEIGHTS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 44

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
FALL TO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE
FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  34  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  36  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  42  58  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39   AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 081039 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
PUSHING INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SFC DEWPOINTS
WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS N TX AND N CENTRAL TX.
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO SE TX LATER TODAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NAMELY A DEEP TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH STRONG N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

IN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET WEATHER WEEK...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IMPACTS FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS ALREADY A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA FROM N TX. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 10F WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW MORE THAN 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850MB WHICH COULD
MIX DOWN IN THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS. WIND AT 925MB IS A LITTLE LESS
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD
ADVECTION REALLY OCCURS. TEMPS AT 850MB DROP FROM 3C-5C DOWN TO 0C
TO -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IF COLD ADVECTION
IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET DAY TIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS SUCH SHOULD
LOW DEWPOINTS BE ACHIEVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW 14 TO 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND
CURED/DRY VEGETATION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER. FOR THIS REASON A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 21 2014.

OVERALL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIRMASS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MODIFY WED/THU/FRI AS
925-850MB FLOW BECOMES W/SW ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO
INCREASE. WARMING IS NOT AS DRAMATIC AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT
STILL NOTICABLE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID BOTH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AND 5 DEGREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.

39

&&

.MARINE... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE BAYS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIANT AND BACK OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE THAT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS HEIGHTS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
FALL TO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE
FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  34  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  36  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  42  58  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 081023
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
PUSHING INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SFC DEWPOINTS
WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS N TX AND N CENTRAL TX.
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO SE TX LATER TODAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NAMELY A DEEP TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH STRONG N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

IN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUITE WEATHER WEEK...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IMPACTS FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS ALREADY A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA FROM N TX. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 10F WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW MORE THAN 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850MB WHICH COULD
MIX DOWN IN THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS. WIND AT 925MB IS A LITTLE LESS
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD
ADVECTION REALLY OCCURS. TEMPS AT 850MB DROP FROM 3C-5C DOWN TO 0C
TO -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IF COLD ADVECTION
IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET DAY TIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS SUCH SHOULD
LOW DEWPOINTS BE ACHIEVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW 14 TO 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND
CURED/DRY VEGETATION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER. FOR THIS REASON A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 21 2014.

OVERALL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIRMASS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MODIFY WED/THU/FRI AS
925-850MB FLOW BECOMES W/SW ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO
INCREASE. WARMING IS NOT AS DRAMATIC AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT
STILL NOTICABLE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID BOTH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AND 5 DEGREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.

39

&&

.MARINE...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH NORRTH
WINDSVEXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN 4
AND 6 AM. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAY AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE BAYS. CAUTION LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE
WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIANT
AND BACK OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWERING PRESSURES OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
TIGHTEN THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CREATE CAUTION
LEVEL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY. A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE
THAT A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS HEIGHTS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
FALL TO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE
FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  34  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  36  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  42  58  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 081023
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
PUSHING INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. SFC DEWPOINTS
WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS N TX AND N CENTRAL TX.
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO SE TX LATER TODAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
NAMELY A DEEP TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ROTATING THROUGH TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FORMED
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WITH STRONG N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

IN WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER QUITE WEATHER WEEK...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IMPACTS FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS ALREADY A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA FROM N TX. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 10F WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXED LAYER UP FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB. BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW MORE THAN 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850MB WHICH COULD
MIX DOWN IN THE FORM OF WIND GUSTS. WIND AT 925MB IS A LITTLE LESS
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD
ADVECTION REALLY OCCURS. TEMPS AT 850MB DROP FROM 3C-5C DOWN TO 0C
TO -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IF COLD ADVECTION
IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET DAY TIME HEATING AND MIXING. AS SUCH SHOULD
LOW DEWPOINTS BE ACHIEVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW 14 TO 20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND
CURED/DRY VEGETATION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER. FOR THIS REASON A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 21 2014.

OVERALL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WHILE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. COLD
AIRMASS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MODIFY WED/THU/FRI AS
925-850MB FLOW BECOMES W/SW ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO
INCREASE. WARMING IS NOT AS DRAMATIC AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT
STILL NOTICABLE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID BOTH GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AND 5 DEGREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.

39

&&

.MARINE...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH NORRTH
WINDSVEXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN 4
AND 6 AM. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAY AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE BAYS. CAUTION LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE
WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIANT
AND BACK OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWERING PRESSURES OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
TIGHTEN THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CREATE CAUTION
LEVEL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY. A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE
THAT A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS HEIGHTS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
FALL TO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE
FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  34  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  36  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  42  58  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44




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