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000
FXUS66 KHNX 241030
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND TODAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY AS HEAVY PRECIP...OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING FORM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. IR IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS
HAS THE COLD FRONT SOME 500 MILES DUE WEST OF THE BAY AREA.
THEREFORE...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. YET...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST...AS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY...THE INTRODUCTION OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP OVER MERCED TO MARIPOSA COUNTIES
AND YOSEMITE NP. MODELS PROGGING A SIX DEG-C DROP IN 850MB
TEMP/S...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE IN SOME 5 TO ALMOST 10 DEG-F DROP
IN SURFACE CONDITIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD FRONT IS PROGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE
DISTRICT. YET...AS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STORM SYSTEM MAY REMAIN
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG WINDS MAY ONLY REACH
AREAS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD AND MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. FURTHERMORE...UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
FLOW MAY CONFINED THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE SIERRA NEVADA
...NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...ON SATURDAY. YET...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF PRECIP...SLIGHT CHANCE...NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY ON SATURDAY.

AFTERWARD...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ON TO THE WEST COAST. MODELS
SHOW LITTLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE PATTERN AS ANOTHER TROF
MOVING INTO CANADA WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT SEE A DRAMATIC WARM UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER FORECAST AFTER THIS
WEEKENDS STORM. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS MODEL CERTAINTY DROPS OFF TOWARD DAY SEVEN AND EIGHT.
ENSEMBLE MODELS CURRENTLY PLACING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE
NEXT OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY AT
NEAR TEN PERCENT OF DEVELOPING A TROUGH PATTERN BY NEXT FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MOVING ON TO
THE WEST COAST AND NOT IF A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WILL
INTRODUCE VERY LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP AND NOT EXPECT A TOTALLY DRY
FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INTRODUCE THE
TROUGH ON SATURDAY/NOV.01/ OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971
KFAT 10-26       89:2003     57:2004     58:1927     35:1939

KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
KBFL 10-26       92:2003     58:1996     61:1959     35:1939
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 232115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS PROVIDING DRY AND GENERALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE SHUNTED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PAC
NORTHWEST. 24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS HERE ARE MOSTLY RUNNING UP
AROUND 2-6 DEGREES EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS IT
IS PROGGED TO SWING ONSHORE SATURDAY AND PUSH EAST OF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPS BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO...DETERMINISTIC
MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TO MOSTLY ANOTHER
MISS FOR OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY AND IN THE YOSEMITE
VICINITY SATURDAY. AS WITH THE RECENT PASSING SYSTEM...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SLOPES SATURDAY EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES BY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING TROUGH.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE
BUT GENERALLY SHOW THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO BY MIDWEEK.


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971

KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 231040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TODAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND AND INCREASED WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WV/IR INDICATING A FAST QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FETCH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN ALL THE WAY INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL. HOWEVER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING THIS MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR CWFA AND
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTICED OVER CENTRAL CA. THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A CONTINUATION
OF THE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY. 06Z WRF INDICATING AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST NEAR 135W ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMING
ACROSS OUR CWFA AS LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WITH WAA
TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA
WITH A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWFA...BUT A CHANCE OF RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH AND PUSHES ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 9000 FEET OVER YOSEMITE PARK SATRUDAY
AFTERNOON LOWERING TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ABOVE 9000 FEET IN AND AROUND YOSEMITE PARK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
CENTRAL CA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WEEKEND TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OFF THE CA COAST. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A RETURN TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z AND 06Z
GFS AS WELL AS THE 00Z HOLD THE RIDGE INTACT OVER CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD AND MOIST UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO CA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AND THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) IS INDICATING VERY A LOW CONFIDENCE OUTLOOK
FOR NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE LACK OF ENSEMBLE MEMBER CONSENSUS. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE MODEL RUN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD REMAINS VERY LOW. OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AS THERE IS NO STRONG
MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE OVER OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971

KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 222047
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
147 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND
A SUBTLE WARMING TREND. AS OF 1 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT VALLEY TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80 DEGREES BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND...ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MERCED AND MARIPOSA
COUNTIES AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...RAIN IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MERCED AND MARIPOSA
COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW THAT THE AREA WILL SEE ANY
RAIN...GIVEN THAT THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST KEEPS TRENDING DRIER AND
DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST STILL INDICATES
VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE RESULT OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE CERTAIN ABOUT IS THE COOLING
TREND WHICH WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WITH THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AREA...IT MAY EVEN FEEL A
FEW DEGREES COOLER! SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956

KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 220953
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN CA THURSDAY WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WE ARE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY.

WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS UNFORTUNATE TREND WITH THE PAST TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA REGION
OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME RANGE WE ARE
SEEING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. HOWEVER AS WE START TO GET INTO THE DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE WE
ARE SEEING LESS MOISTURE AND BY THE TIME WE ARE IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME RANGE WE ARE SEEING EVEN LESS AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
EVENT WE ARE SEEING NO MOISTURE...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. WELL THIS
WEEKENDS SYSTEM APPEARS TO TO BE NO DIFFERENT. NEW RUNS OF THE GFS
ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM12 GOES
OUT TO 84 HOURS (12Z SATURDAY) AND IT IS SHOWING A VERY DRY FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST. THE CONTINUED OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF AND WE
ARE NOT PUTTING MUCH WEIGHT IN ITS WET SOLN ATTM. IT HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THE QPF AND THEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE DRIER GFS NEAR
THE EVENT.

THE TROUGH IS A QUICK HITTER AND COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME WARMING BY TUESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WED. WE HAVE ADDED
CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED WHICH PRIMARILY FOCUSES ON POPS IN THE
SIERRA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956

KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 220953
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN CA THURSDAY WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WE ARE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY.

WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS UNFORTUNATE TREND WITH THE PAST TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA REGION
OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME RANGE WE ARE
SEEING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. HOWEVER AS WE START TO GET INTO THE DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE WE
ARE SEEING LESS MOISTURE AND BY THE TIME WE ARE IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME RANGE WE ARE SEEING EVEN LESS AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
EVENT WE ARE SEEING NO MOISTURE...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. WELL THIS
WEEKENDS SYSTEM APPEARS TO TO BE NO DIFFERENT. NEW RUNS OF THE GFS
ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM12 GOES
OUT TO 84 HOURS (12Z SATURDAY) AND IT IS SHOWING A VERY DRY FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST. THE CONTINUED OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF AND WE
ARE NOT PUTTING MUCH WEIGHT IN ITS WET SOLN ATTM. IT HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THE QPF AND THEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE DRIER GFS NEAR
THE EVENT.

THE TROUGH IS A QUICK HITTER AND COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME WARMING BY TUESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WED. WE HAVE ADDED
CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED WHICH PRIMARILY FOCUSES ON POPS IN THE
SIERRA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956

KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 212150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OUT OF
THE AREA...WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 9
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND OVER THE
REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS INDICATING BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN WITH THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ADDING
TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AT BEST...NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES MAY SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS THAT
BRUSHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...GIVING US NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WE WILL CLOSELY WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR
A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING...LOCATION...AND ANY POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK.

ONE THING WE ARE CONFIDENT ON...IS THE FACT THAT THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND TO THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 212150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OUT OF
THE AREA...WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 9
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND OVER THE
REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS INDICATING BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN WITH THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ADDING
TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AT BEST...NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES MAY SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS THAT
BRUSHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...GIVING US NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WE WILL CLOSELY WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR
A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING...LOCATION...AND ANY POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK.

ONE THING WE ARE CONFIDENT ON...IS THE FACT THAT THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND TO THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





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