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000
FXUS66 KHNX 312241
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
341 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A DAILY THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE SIERRA CREST. AFTERWARD...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALLOW A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
REGION IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA
TODAY. THE EXPANSION OF THIS LARGE RIDGE AND AND DRYING OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS HAVE PROVIDED FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE
YDAY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F ABOVE YDAY. THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. THE DAYTIME
WARMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS PROVIDED FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHERE CAPES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TODAY.

IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE SOCAL COAST
WHICH ARE POISED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH...DARK HOLE AND EL PORTAL WILD
FIRES. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES
DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE EAST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. HAVE EXPANDED ON THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF
SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT AS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...SMOKE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION.

THE WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AT SHOWING A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CA BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTICED
FROM THE 850-700 MB RH PROGS AND THE 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION OVER KERN COUNTY AND
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR
CWFA. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE CASE
THIS TROPICAL SURGE IS STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED AND CLIPS OUR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DO
ANTICIPATE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
NOTICEABLY OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THEN RE POSITION ITSELF OVER NORTHERN
BAJA...INTERACTING WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE PUSHED WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR CWFA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE WEEKEND TROPICAL SURGE AND THE POSITION OFF THE OFFSHORE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY
IN SMOKE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 1 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 312241
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
341 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A DAILY THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE SIERRA CREST. AFTERWARD...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALLOW A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
REGION IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA
TODAY. THE EXPANSION OF THIS LARGE RIDGE AND AND DRYING OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS HAVE PROVIDED FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE
YDAY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F ABOVE YDAY. THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. THE DAYTIME
WARMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS PROVIDED FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHERE CAPES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TODAY.

IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE SOCAL COAST
WHICH ARE POISED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH...DARK HOLE AND EL PORTAL WILD
FIRES. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES
DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE EAST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. HAVE EXPANDED ON THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF
SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT AS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...SMOKE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION.

THE WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AT SHOWING A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CA BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTICED
FROM THE 850-700 MB RH PROGS AND THE 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION OVER KERN COUNTY AND
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR
CWFA. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE CASE
THIS TROPICAL SURGE IS STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED AND CLIPS OUR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DO
ANTICIPATE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
NOTICEABLY OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THEN RE POSITION ITSELF OVER NORTHERN
BAJA...INTERACTING WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE PUSHED WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR CWFA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE WEEKEND TROPICAL SURGE AND THE POSITION OFF THE OFFSHORE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY
IN SMOKE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 1 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD










000
FXUS66 KHNX 312134
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
234 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DAILY THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE SIERRA
CREST. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALLOW A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
REGION IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA
TODAY. THE EXPANSION OF THIS LARGE RIDGE AND AND DRYING OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS HAVE PROVIDED FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE
YDAY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F ABOVE YDAY. THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. THE DAYTIME
WARMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS PROVIDED FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHERE CAPES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TODAY.

IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE SOCAL COAST
WHICH ARE POISED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH...DARK HOLE AND EL PORTAL WILD
FIRES. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES
DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE EAST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. HAVE EXPANDED ON THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF
SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT AS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...SMOKE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION.

THE WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AT SHOWING A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CA BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTICED
FROM THE 850-700 MB RH PROGS AND THE 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION OVER KERN COUNTY AND
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR
CWFA. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE CASE
THIS TROPICAL SURGE IS STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED AND CLIPS OUR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DO
ANTICIPATE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
NOTICEABLY OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THEN RE POSITION ITSELF OVER NORTHERN
BAJA...INTERACTING WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE PUSHED WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR CWFA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE WEEKEND TROPICAL SURGE AND THE POSITION OFF THE OFFSHORE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. AREAS
OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY JULY 31 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KHNX 312134
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
234 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DAILY THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE SIERRA
CREST. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALLOW A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
REGION IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA
TODAY. THE EXPANSION OF THIS LARGE RIDGE AND AND DRYING OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS HAVE PROVIDED FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE
YDAY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F ABOVE YDAY. THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. THE DAYTIME
WARMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS PROVIDED FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHERE CAPES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TODAY.

IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE SOCAL COAST
WHICH ARE POISED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS SMOKE FROM THE FRENCH...DARK HOLE AND EL PORTAL WILD
FIRES. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES
DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE EAST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. HAVE EXPANDED ON THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF
SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT AS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...SMOKE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION.

THE WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AT SHOWING A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CA BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTICED
FROM THE 850-700 MB RH PROGS AND THE 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION OVER KERN COUNTY AND
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR
CWFA. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE CASE
THIS TROPICAL SURGE IS STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED AND CLIPS OUR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DO
ANTICIPATE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
NOTICEABLY OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS AND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THEN RE POSITION ITSELF OVER NORTHERN
BAJA...INTERACTING WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE PUSHED WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR CWFA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE WEEKEND TROPICAL SURGE AND THE POSITION OFF THE OFFSHORE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. AREAS
OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY JULY 31 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 311025
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
325 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AS
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM HERNAN STREAM THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
YET...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY IN DIRECTION WITH
THE MOISTURE TAP CUTTING-OFF AS THE DISTRICT TRENDS TOWARD A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE START OF DRIER WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE AS A DAILY OCCURRENCE OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ABUNDANT FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOREOVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY DIFLUENT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...PROVIDING FOR WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS. HRRR MESO-SCALE MODEL INITIATES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT AROUND NOON AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD REMAINS AT AROUND 1000 FEET
MSL. WHILE NOT SHALLOW...THE HEIGHT WILL NOT PROMOTE ANY COOLING
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS NO MARINE AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER
INLAND. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM KSFO TO KLAS
REMAIN AT 6MB OVER BELOW. THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR ANY MARINE AIR PUSH INTO THE
VALLEY...OR ANY STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS KEEP AND MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVEN IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EVENMORE...MODELS SHOW A LOWERING OF PRECIP-WATER OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE CONVECTION MAY POP-UP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...PRECIP VALUES MAY REMAIN VERY LIGHT TO AROUND
TRACE VALUES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ABOVE TRACE VALUE PRECIP IN
THE SHORT TERM AND KEEP THE LONGER TERM RAIN AMOUNTS AT AROUND THE
ZERO VALUE. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS ATTEMPT FORM A
WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THIS POINT...THIS
MAY BE MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN THEN A WEATHER MAKING FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JULY 31 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KHNX 311025
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
325 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AS
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM HERNAN STREAM THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
YET...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY IN DIRECTION WITH
THE MOISTURE TAP CUTTING-OFF AS THE DISTRICT TRENDS TOWARD A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE START OF DRIER WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE AS A DAILY OCCURRENCE OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ABUNDANT FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOREOVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY DIFLUENT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...PROVIDING FOR WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS. HRRR MESO-SCALE MODEL INITIATES AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT AROUND NOON AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD REMAINS AT AROUND 1000 FEET
MSL. WHILE NOT SHALLOW...THE HEIGHT WILL NOT PROMOTE ANY COOLING
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS NO MARINE AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER
INLAND. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM KSFO TO KLAS
REMAIN AT 6MB OVER BELOW. THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR ANY MARINE AIR PUSH INTO THE
VALLEY...OR ANY STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS KEEP AND MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVEN IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EVENMORE...MODELS SHOW A LOWERING OF PRECIP-WATER OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE CONVECTION MAY POP-UP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...PRECIP VALUES MAY REMAIN VERY LIGHT TO AROUND
TRACE VALUES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ABOVE TRACE VALUE PRECIP IN
THE SHORT TERM AND KEEP THE LONGER TERM RAIN AMOUNTS AT AROUND THE
ZERO VALUE. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS ATTEMPT FORM A
WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THIS POINT...THIS
MAY BE MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN THEN A WEATHER MAKING FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JULY 31 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 302354 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
454 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 305 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS. THE
FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVER FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THIS FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST. SATELLITE
DOES SHOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST THAT IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE WITH THIS MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE 18Z NAM12 MOVES IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT IN THE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

BEYOND TODAY...THE MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MOISTURE
WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE CREST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS HOLDING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JULY 31 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS LOW.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDB
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD










000
FXUS66 KHNX 302205
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS. THE
FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVER FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THIS FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST. SATELLITE
DOES SHOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST THAT IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE WITH THIS MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE 18Z NAM12 MOVES IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT IN THE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

BEYOND TODAY...THE MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MOISTURE
WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE CREST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS HOLDING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 302205
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS. THE
FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVER FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THIS FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES EAST. SATELLITE
DOES SHOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST THAT IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE WITH THIS MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE 18Z NAM12 MOVES IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT IN THE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

BEYOND TODAY...THE MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MOISTURE
WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE CREST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS HOLDING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF 100+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KHNX 301902
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1202 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN TULARE
COUNTY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE VISALIA AREA AND INTO THE
SIERRA NEAR GRANT GROVE AND EVEN UP NEAR THE CREST. SOME SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN FRESNO COUNTY AS WELL AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO EXTEND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE VALLEY
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z (3 PM). ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS FOR TODAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN QUITE A BIT COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. LEFT THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES ALONE AS THEY ARE
RUNNING CLOSE TO 24 HRS AGO IN MOST AREAS. ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 301730 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1030 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY...FOOTHILL AND SIERRA ZONES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A VORTMAX IN THE FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
KERN COUNTY NORTH AND WEST OF WASCO AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
TULARE COUNTY. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...SANGER/BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KHNX 301730 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1030 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY...FOOTHILL AND SIERRA ZONES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A VORTMAX IN THE FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
KERN COUNTY NORTH AND WEST OF WASCO AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
TULARE COUNTY. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...SANGER/BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 301626
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
926 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DJUSTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VALLEY...FOOTHILL AND SIERRA ZONES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A VORTMAX IN THE FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
KERN COUNTY NORTH AND WEST OF WASCO AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
TULARE COUNTY. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KHNX 301626
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
926 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DJUSTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VALLEY...FOOTHILL AND SIERRA ZONES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER
OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-TROPICAL STORM HERNAN MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A VORTMAX IN THE FLOW
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
KERN COUNTY NORTH AND WEST OF WASCO AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
TULARE COUNTY. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WE GET
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 301212 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
512 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE FRESNO
AREA WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAINFALL NEAR CLOVIS BEING REPORTED.
THESE CELLS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH MADERA COUNTY.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING FOR
THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT FOR THIS MORNING AS IR IMAGERY
IS INDICATING A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD






000
FXUS66 KHNX 301212 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
512 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE FRESNO
AREA WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAINFALL NEAR CLOVIS BEING REPORTED.
THESE CELLS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH MADERA COUNTY.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING FOR
THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT FOR THIS MORNING AS IR IMAGERY
IS INDICATING A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 301109
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KHNX 301109
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
409 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEING SOME
SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING A FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST FAILED TO PICK UP ON ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
SURGE...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME REFLECTIVITY ECHOS
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON GROUND TRUTH
FROM RAIN GAUGES AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOS...HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RECORDED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN 0.03 INCHES FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
SELMA AND 0.01 INCHES AT AN AUTOMATED STATION IN NORTH CLOVIS. A
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED 0.04 INCHES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
NEAR BALCH POWER HOUSE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT FENCE MEADOW AND DINKEY CREEK IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR ARE LATER TODAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RH PROGS
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE IN OUR
AREA. OVERALL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND HIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA TODAY HOWEVER...IS SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH...EL PORTAL AND DARK HOLE FIRES AND THE IMPACT THAT IT WILL
HAVE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT HAS PROVIDED OUR AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PREVENT INVERSION CONDITIONS FORM SETTING UP AND THE
SMOKE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR PROBLEM SO FAR AS A RESULT.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A CLEARING TREND
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AS RH PROGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AZ AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FORM THURSDAY AND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CA. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE DECIDED
TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HOW MUCH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE
CA COAST AND BRING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THREE LARGE WILD
FIRES IN PROGRESS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 292310
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
410 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KHNX 292310
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
410 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 292150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







000
FXUS66 KHNX 292150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD






000
FXUS66 KHNX 291029
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
329 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS
IS CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT
TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SKIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWFA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN PUSHING IN AND THE MONSOONAL SURGE THAT
IMPACTED OUR AREA ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT
OF THE CLEARING...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST MAY STREAM INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CAPES AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE SHOWN 850 MB DEW POINTS AND MEAN LAYER
850-700 MB RH PROGS WITH READINGS THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE. TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS PROGGED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COLDER OPEN WATERS
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE NO IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA OTHER THAN PROVIDING US WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS OUR AREA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATING DRY
AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IMPACTING SOUTHEASTERN CA
THIS WEEKEND. 850 MB PROGS AND MID LEVEL RH PROGS ARE INDICATING A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT JUST OT THE EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWFA AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS IN CASE
THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES FURTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PUSHING THE MONSOONAL SURGE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA FROM 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 291029
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
329 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS
IS CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT
TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SKIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWFA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN PUSHING IN AND THE MONSOONAL SURGE THAT
IMPACTED OUR AREA ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT
OF THE CLEARING...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST MAY STREAM INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CAPES AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE SHOWN 850 MB DEW POINTS AND MEAN LAYER
850-700 MB RH PROGS WITH READINGS THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE. TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS PROGGED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COLDER OPEN WATERS
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE NO IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA OTHER THAN PROVIDING US WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS OUR AREA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATING DRY
AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IMPACTING SOUTHEASTERN CA
THIS WEEKEND. 850 MB PROGS AND MID LEVEL RH PROGS ARE INDICATING A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT JUST OT THE EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWFA AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS IN CASE
THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES FURTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PUSHING THE MONSOONAL SURGE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA FROM 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD






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