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000
FXUS66 KHNX 180140
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
640 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WE JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BUMP THE CLOUD COVER UP THIS
EVENING. CONSIDERABLE MID DECK CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOCAL COAST THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA. EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 415 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE WFO
HANFORD COUNTY WARNING/FORECAST AREA /CWFA/ THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SPINNING THESES CLOUDS ACROSS
THE STATE...OTHERWISE THIS LOW IS HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT OF THE
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

AT 21Z /1400 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND WERE RUNNING AS
MUCH AS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN 21Z WEDNESDAY. THE RATE OF WARMING HAS
SLOWED...AND THIS MORNING/S UPDATE MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 132W
AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BOTH DAYS. SPC HAS
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND PART OF THE INDIAN WELLS
VALLEY UNDER A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...AND THE SIERRA CREST IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES UNDER A
GENERAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
LIGHT...AND THE 18Z NAM NOW HAS NO QPF FOR YOSEMITE COMPARED TO THE
0.04 INCH ON THE 12Z RUN.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION.
WARMING WILL BE STRONGEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE GLOBAL-COMPOSITE WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO BE NEAR 44N/165W THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THIS STORM WILL REACH CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHARP DROP IN
850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER FRESNO TUESDAY MORNING...FALLING FROM
AROUND 15 C AT 00Z TUESDAY /1700 PDT MONDAY/ TO AROUND 3 C BY 18Z
/1100 PDT/ TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL FROM AROUND 4500 FEET
NEAR YOSEMITE TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT KINGS CANYON AND TO AROUND 6000
FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE PASSES BETWEEN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.
THE COLD AIRMASS ALSO WILL BRING AN ABRUPT COOLING TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS
DROPPING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 MONDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID
70S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z GFS FORECASTS A STORM TOTAL QPF OF 0.30 TO 0.75 INCH OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM THIS STORM...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
ONLY HAS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
KERN COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BLOWING DUST COULD BE A CONCERN.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA FOR NEXT
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955

KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVN/FW...MV
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD










000
FXUS66 KHNX 172315
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
415 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA. EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE WFO
HANFORD COUNTY WARNING/FORECAST AREA /CWFA/ THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SPINNING THESES CLOUDS ACROSS
THE STATE...OTHERWISE THIS LOW IS HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT OF THE
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

AT 21Z /1400 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND WERE RUNNING AS
MUCH AS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN 21Z WEDNESDAY. THE RATE OF WARMING HAS
SLOWED...AND THIS MORNING/S UPDATE MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 132W
AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BOTH DAYS. SPC HAS
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND PART OF THE INDIAN WELLS
VALLEY UNDER A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...AND THE SIERRA CREST IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES UNDER A
GENERAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
LIGHT...AND THE 18Z NAM NOW HAS NO QPF FOR YOSEMITE COMPARED TO THE
0.04 INCH ON THE 12Z RUN.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION.
WARMING WILL BE STRONGEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE GLOBAL-COMPOSITE WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO BE NEAR 44N/165W THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THIS STORM WILL REACH CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHARP DROP IN
850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER FRESNO TUESDAY MORNING...FALLING FROM
AROUND 15 C AT 00Z TUESDAY /1700 PDT MONDAY/ TO AROUND 3 C BY 18Z
/1100 PDT/ TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL FROM AROUND 4500 FEET
NEAR YOSEMITE TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT KINGS CANYON AND TO AROUND 6000
FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE PASSES BETWEEN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.
THE COLD AIRMASS ALSO WILL BRING AN ABRUPT COOLING TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS
DROPPING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 MONDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID
70S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z GFS FORECASTS A STORM TOTAL QPF OF 0.30 TO 0.75 INCH OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM THIS STORM...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
ONLY HAS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
KERN COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BLOWING DUST COULD BE A CONCERN.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA FOR NEXT
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955

KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN...SANGER
FW...MENDENHALL
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







000
FXUS66 KHNX 172200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA. EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE WFO
HANFORD COUNTY WARNING/FORECAST AREA /CWFA/ THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SPINNING THESES CLOUDS ACROSS
THE STATE...OTHERWISE THIS LOW IS HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT OF THE
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

AT 21Z /1400 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND WERE RUNNING AS
MUCH AS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN 21Z WEDNESDAY. THE RATE OF WARMING HAS
SLOWED...AND THIS MORNING/S UPDATE MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 132W
AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BOTH DAYS. SPC HAS
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND PART OF THE INDIAN WELLS
VALLEY UNDER A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...AND THE SIERRA CREST IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES UNDER A
GENERAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
LIGHT...AND THE 18Z NAM NOW HAS NO QPF FOR YOSEMITE COMPARED TO THE
0.04 INCH ON THE 12Z RUN.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE REGION.
WARMING WILL BE STRONGEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE GLOBAL-COMPOSITE WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO BE NEAR 44N/165W THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THIS STORM WILL REACH CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHARP DROP IN
850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER FRESNO TUESDAY MORNING...FALLING FROM
AROUND 15 C AT 00Z TUESDAY /1700 PDT MONDAY/ TO AROUND 3 C BY 18Z
/1100 PDT/ TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL FROM AROUND 4500 FEET
NEAR YOSEMITE TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT KINGS CANYON AND TO AROUND 6000
FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE PASSES BETWEEN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHLAND THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.
THE COLD AIRMASS ALSO WILL BRING AN ABRUPT COOLING TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS
DROPPING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 MONDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID
70S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z GFS FORECASTS A STORM TOTAL QPF OF 0.30 TO 0.75 INCH OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM THIS STORM...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
ONLY HAS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
KERN COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BLOWING DUST COULD BE A CONCERN.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA FOR NEXT
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY APRIL 17 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955

KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN...SANGER
FW...MENDENHALL
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 171650
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
950 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN AND NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA. EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN
RUNNING AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF PERSISTENCE FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
134W...AND THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA IS WARMING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE WARMED THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FORECAST LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF WITH
THIS STORM...AND THIS MORNING/S 14Z RFC QPF FOLLOWS THIS TREND.

THE GLOBAL-COMPOSITE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
44N/166W...SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 317 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING EXCEPTIONALLY WARM
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A PREVAILING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CARRIES IN SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS RATHER INNOCENTLY THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY BREEZES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THRU
FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS. A REPEAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE...
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER CA SATURDAY. TEMP TRENDS
WILL REMAIN STATIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT STILL AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FINALLY BE MORE SEASONABLE.

EASTER SUNDAY WILL WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND
GET NUDGED EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE APPROACH OF A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THEN AND SEND SHALLOW MARINE
AIR INTO MERCED COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE SJ VLY ON MONDAY WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN
EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THE GFS AND ECM HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT KID YOU NOT WITH ITS ORIGINS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA...ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE MARKED BY A DRAMATIC
CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...ESP
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUE EVENING. QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BUT NONETHELESS A WELCOME CHANGE AND A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA ABOVE 6K FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 5K FEET. ADDITIONALLY...
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OF KERN COUNTY AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS TUESDAY AND WED WILL AVERAGE A
GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

BY NEXT THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER
CA. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WED NIGHT...PREDAWN TEMPS THURSDAY IN
THE CHILLIEST LOCATIONS OF THE SJ VLY COULD DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE...TEMPS THURSDAY WILL WARM BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY APRIL 17 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955

KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 171043
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
317 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA. EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING EXCEPTIONALLY WARM
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A PREVAILING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CARRIES IN SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS RATHER INNOCENTLY THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY BREEZES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THRU
FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS. A REPEAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE...
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER CA SATURDAY. TEMP TRENDS
WILL REMAIN STATIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT STILL AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FINALLY BE MORE SEASONABLE.

EASTER SUNDAY WILL WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND
GET NUDGED EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE APPROACH OF A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THEN AND SEND SHALLOW MARINE
AIR INTO MERCED COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE SJ VLY ON MONDAY WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN
EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THE GFS AND ECM HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT KID YOU NOT WITH ITS ORIGINS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA...ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE MARKED BY A DRAMATIC
CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...ESP
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUE EVENING. QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BUT NONETHELESS A WELCOME CHANGE AND A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA ABOVE 6K FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 5K FEET. ADDITIONALLY...
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OF KERN COUNTY AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS TUESDAY AND WED WILL AVERAGE A
GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

BY NEXT THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER
CA. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WED NIGHT...PREDAWN TEMPS THURSDAY IN
THE CHILLIEST LOCATIONS OF THE SJ VLY COULD DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE...TEMPS THURSDAY WILL WARM BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY APRIL 17 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955

KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD












000
FXUS66 KHNX 171017
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
317 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA. EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING EXCEPTIONALLY WARM
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A PREVAILING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CARRIES IN SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS RATHER INNOCENTLY THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY BREEZES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THRU
FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS. A REPEAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE...
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER CA SATURDAY. TEMP TRENDS
WILL REMAIN STATIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT STILL AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FINALLY BE MORE SEASONABLE.

EASTER SUNDAY WILL WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND
GET NUDGED EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE APPROACH OF A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THEN AND SEND SHALLOW MARINE
AIR INTO MERCED COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE SJ VLY WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN EASTER
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

THE GFS AND ECM HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT KID YOU NOT WITH ITS ORIGINS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA...ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE MARKED BY A DRAMATIC
CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...ESP
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUE EVENING. QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BUT NONETHELESS A WELCOME CHANGE AND A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA ABOVE 6K FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 5K FEET. ADDITIONALLY...
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OF KERN COUNTY AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS TUESDAY AND WED WILL AVERAGE A
GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

BY NEXT THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER
CA. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WED NIGHT...PREDAWN TEMPS THURSDAY IN
THE CHILLIEST LOCATIONS OF THE SJ VLY COULD DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE...TEMPS THURSDAY WILL WARM BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY APRIL 17 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955

KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 162305
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
405 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST AND COULD BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING HAS
OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH...WITH MOST
VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S BY
THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS/DESERT HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THIS MORNING TO LESS THAN 30
MPH. A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY REACHED 40 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF GUST TO 51 MPH NEAR MOJAVE.

PROGS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 IN PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE HIGH
SIERRA...CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASING WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS/DESERT. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH.

MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MUCH LOWER
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA IN PLACE
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY APRIL 17 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896
KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941

KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO/MENDENHALL
AVN/FW...MENDENHALL
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD










000
FXUS66 KHNX 162120
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
220 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST BEGINNING THURSDAY. EARLY
NEXT WEEK A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST AND COULD
BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING HAS
OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH...WITH MOST
VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S BY
THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS/DESERT HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THIS MORNING TO LESS THAN 30
MPH. A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY REACHED 40 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF GUST TO 51 MPH NEAR MOJAVE.

PROGS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 IN PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE HIGH
SIERRA...CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASING WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS/DESERT. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH.

MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MUCH LOWER
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA IN PLACE
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896
KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941

KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MENDENHALL
AVN/FW...MENDENHALL
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 161034
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
334 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST AND COULD BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK PASSING TROUGH DID LITTLE TO INHIBIT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA BUT BROUGHT SOME MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
THE VALLEY AND PRODUCED A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL
THROUGH THE PASSES OF KERN COUNTY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH ONSHORE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL
RETURN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
COULD BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SIERRA SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. RECENT GFS
RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM...DROPPING A HEALTHY CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN WEAKER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PASSING TROUGH BUT LATEST ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. WITH SOME
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WE HAVE TRENDED
OUR FORECAST DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THEN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME VERSION OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUR
FORECAST CURRENTLY DROPS TEMPERATURES FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO SUNDAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY...WITH A
TRANSITIONAL DAY MONDAY WHERE OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE COOLING BUT
STILL QUITE WARM IN THE SOUTH END.

CERTAINTY IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT WITH THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM...CLOUDY...BREEZY...COOLER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY HAS NOT
INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO YET INCLUDE VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...IF THE COLD POOL CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD MATERIALIZES...WE CERTAINLY COULD SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE LIKELY BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES OF KERN COUNTY BETWEEN 03Z WED AND 15Z WED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896
KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941

KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB/DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KHNX 152208
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
308 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECASTING SHIFT WAS TODAY/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WIND THREAT FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

AS FAR AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW A WASHED OUT COOL FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING ORIENTATED EAST TO WEST AND MOVING SOUTH
WOULD AFFECT THE MAXIMUM TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE INHIBITED A BIT
DUE TO THE BOUNDARY/S PASSING. HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WERE VERY THIN AND TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY
LOWER. IT WAS EXPECTED ANY COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
PASSAGE WOULD BE OFFSET BY THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND WOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS TO QUICKLY CATCH UP. THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
ARE RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS JUST
BELOW THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE THE THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES LOCATED JUST
WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND A THERMAL LOW LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA BORDER. THIS
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MARINE AIR TO
SPILL INTO THE WESTERN SIDES OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
ONSET OF THIS PROCESS IN THESE AREAS. WINDS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SJV AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY SURPASS THIS
VALUE AND WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS SOME BLOWING DUST MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOMORROW
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADILY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN AGAIN WARM TO PRE SYSTEM RANGES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY ONWARD FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKES A DIVE AS GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT IN TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF AN EASTWARD
MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM GOES A BIT HAYWIRE. THIS FORECASTER IS
OPTING TO RESERVE SOUNDING THE ALARM UNTIL FURTHER GUIDANCE RUNS
CAN BE EXAMINED. THE FEELING NOW IS THAT A SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
REGION BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS FAR SOUTH AS SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE PUTS IT. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FOR
THE SIERRA CREST AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.


&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE LIKELY BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES OF KERN COUNTY BETWEEN 03Z WED AND 15Z WED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-15       96:1947     57:1988     62:1925     35:1970
KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896
KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896

KBFL 04-15       97:1994     57:2007     61:1947     36:1921
KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ANDERSEN
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD










000
FXUS66 KHNX 151007
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
307 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH SIERRA LATE IN THE WEEK. A BOUGHT OF
INCREASED WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INLAND TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO
DRAG A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MAKING BLOOD MOON VIEWING
LAST NIGHT JUST A LITTLE FUZZY. THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE OUR HIGHS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY JUST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER. WINDS WILL KICK UP ALSO...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
AND BELOW THE PASSES OF KERN COUNTY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SIERRA SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES AFTER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH IMPACTING
THE WEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH TIMING AND TRAJECTORY. THE CURRENT FAVORED SOLUTION
WARMS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH WHICH MOVES ONSHORE BY TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-15       96:1947     57:1988     62:1925     35:1970
KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896
KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896

KBFL 04-15       97:1994     57:2007     61:1947     36:1921
KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









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