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000
FXUS66 KHNX 201119
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
319 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATE THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
EVEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SPRINKLES WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. THE HIGH
RES MODELS EVEN SHOW SPRINKLES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE FORECAST POSSIBLY UPDATED THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PAST WEEK OR SO OF RAIN AND AS THE THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES CHANGES OF ONLY 10 DEGREES
OR SO.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ELIMINATING ANY FOG CHANCES AND
BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS
LARGE...GIVING LOW FORECAST CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ANY
PRECIPITATION.

THE REGION STAYS IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA
IN ADDITION TO THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990

KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 201119
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
319 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATE THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
EVEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SPRINKLES WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. THE HIGH
RES MODELS EVEN SHOW SPRINKLES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE FORECAST POSSIBLY UPDATED THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PAST WEEK OR SO OF RAIN AND AS THE THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES CHANGES OF ONLY 10 DEGREES
OR SO.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ELIMINATING ANY FOG CHANCES AND
BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS
LARGE...GIVING LOW FORECAST CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ANY
PRECIPITATION.

THE REGION STAYS IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA
IN ADDITION TO THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990

KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 192200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY, A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PUSHED INTO NORCAL. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM YDAY
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWFA TODAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.

THE 12Z WRF IS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO FRESNO
COUNTY NORTHWARD WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON. WV IS INDICATING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AIMED
TO PUSH INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE
OUR AREA WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TONIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE
CA COAST BETWEEN 130W AND 135W ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH
WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
RIDGE NOW ANTICIPATED TO BUILD FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...THE EXTENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MIGHT NOT BE AS
PREVALENT AS ADVERTISED. AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN
THE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY EITHER LIFT THE FOG INTO A
STRATUS DECK OR MIX IT OUT COMPLETELY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO FOG AND STRATUS MIGHT BE
MORE PREVALENT IN THE VALLEY ON THOSE DAYS AND ADVERSELY IMPACT
HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY
MIDWEEK AS A PAC SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT REDUCING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE
AN INSIDE SLIDER TRAJECTORY AND DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH FURTHER TO OUR
EAST AND THE 12Z GEM SPLITS THE SYSTEM WITH BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS LEAVING OUR AREA MAINLY DRY. THE MOD TREND IS FAVORING
THE GFS IDEA BUT WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS
FOR NOW AND INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OFF THE CA COAST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA FROM CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897

KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 192200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY, A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PUSHED INTO NORCAL. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM YDAY
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWFA TODAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.

THE 12Z WRF IS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO FRESNO
COUNTY NORTHWARD WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON. WV IS INDICATING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AIMED
TO PUSH INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE
OUR AREA WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TONIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE
CA COAST BETWEEN 130W AND 135W ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH
WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
RIDGE NOW ANTICIPATED TO BUILD FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...THE EXTENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MIGHT NOT BE AS
PREVALENT AS ADVERTISED. AM EXPECTING SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN
THE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY EITHER LIFT THE FOG INTO A
STRATUS DECK OR MIX IT OUT COMPLETELY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO FOG AND STRATUS MIGHT BE
MORE PREVALENT IN THE VALLEY ON THOSE DAYS AND ADVERSELY IMPACT
HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY
MIDWEEK AS A PAC SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT REDUCING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE
AN INSIDE SLIDER TRAJECTORY AND DEEPEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH FURTHER TO OUR
EAST AND THE 12Z GEM SPLITS THE SYSTEM WITH BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS LEAVING OUR AREA MAINLY DRY. THE MOD TREND IS FAVORING
THE GFS IDEA BUT WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS
FOR NOW AND INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OFF THE CA COAST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA FROM CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897

KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 191208
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
408 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INLAND AND
SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPPING SOUTH WILL HELP TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP CHANCES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC BY
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEY. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PERSISTENT...WITH THE VALLEY BECOMING SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND
FOG FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. THESE AREAS WILL SEE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WHILE LOCATIONS LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE THE SUN WILL WARM
NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION...THOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH...TIMING AND TRAJECTORY. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE FOG PATTERN BY
CHRISTMAS EVE...BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH. DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE REFINED WITH
FURTHER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MAINLY
NORTH OF KINGS CANYON AFTER 20Z TODAY WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS..END.. &&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897

KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 191208
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
408 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INLAND AND
SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN ENERGY
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPPING SOUTH WILL HELP TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP CHANCES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC BY
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEY. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PERSISTENT...WITH THE VALLEY BECOMING SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND
FOG FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. THESE AREAS WILL SEE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WHILE LOCATIONS LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE THE SUN WILL WARM
NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION...THOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH...TIMING AND TRAJECTORY. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN AND BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE FOG PATTERN BY
CHRISTMAS EVE...BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH. DETAILS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE REFINED WITH
FURTHER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MAINLY
NORTH OF KINGS CANYON AFTER 20Z TODAY WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS..END.. &&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897

KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 182245
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN AREAS. BY SUNDAY, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES BY 18Z /1000 PST/.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE 500-MB 5700-METER HEIGHT
LINE PUSHING NORTH OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
FRIDAY /2200 PST TONIGHT/. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TULE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

BY 12Z /0400 PST/ FRIDAY MORNING...THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE
RIDGE INLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 18-24Z /1000-1600 PST/
FRIDAY. THE 500-MB 5700-METER HEIGHT LINE IS FORECAST TO DROP TO
OVER BAKERSFIELD BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY 00Z SATURDAY /1600 PST FRIDAY/...ALTHOUGH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REMAIN ABOVE 5640 METERS.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE A RELATIVELY FAST MOVER...PUSHING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS STORM WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND EXPECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY...AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER FRESNO COUNTY. WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAINSHADOWNG OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE AROUND 6000 FEET...AND NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY OF YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...REACHING THE FOUR-CORNERS
AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. 500-M HEIGHTS OVER
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 5700 METERS
BY 18Z SATURDAY...AND ABOVE 5820 METERS BY 06Z MONDAY /2200 PST
SUNDAY/. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY...STABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG
PERSISTENT INVERSION OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

NIGHT AND MORNING TULE FOG WILL FORM DAILY AND PLAT HAVOC WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES /AS WELL AS PLAGUING SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DRIVERS/. THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE FOG WILL LIFT INTO AN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STRATUS DECK...KEEPING HIGHS BELOW THE INVERSION IN THE
MID 50S EXCEPT ALONG THE WEST SIDE WHERE THE DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE
ADIABATICALLY WARMED AND DRIED...RESULTING IN SOME EROSION OF THE
FAR WEST-SIDE FOG. ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MARIPOSA AND OAKHURST REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
60S UNLESS THE INVERSION IS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE BERING SEA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND ENTER THE GULF OF
ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO OPEN INTO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST NEXT
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

BOTH MODELS DO TREAT THIS TROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER...DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS DAY. IF THIS HOLDS...THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
CREST.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN MIST/FOG
06Z-18Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897

KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 182245
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN AREAS. BY SUNDAY, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING...
REACHING MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES BY 18Z /1000 PST/.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE 500-MB 5700-METER HEIGHT
LINE PUSHING NORTH OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
FRIDAY /2200 PST TONIGHT/. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TULE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

BY 12Z /0400 PST/ FRIDAY MORNING...THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE
RIDGE INLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 18-24Z /1000-1600 PST/
FRIDAY. THE 500-MB 5700-METER HEIGHT LINE IS FORECAST TO DROP TO
OVER BAKERSFIELD BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY 00Z SATURDAY /1600 PST FRIDAY/...ALTHOUGH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REMAIN ABOVE 5640 METERS.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE A RELATIVELY FAST MOVER...PUSHING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS STORM WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND EXPECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY...AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER FRESNO COUNTY. WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAINSHADOWNG OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE AROUND 6000 FEET...AND NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY OF YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...REACHING THE FOUR-CORNERS
AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. 500-M HEIGHTS OVER
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 5700 METERS
BY 18Z SATURDAY...AND ABOVE 5820 METERS BY 06Z MONDAY /2200 PST
SUNDAY/. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY...STABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG
PERSISTENT INVERSION OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

NIGHT AND MORNING TULE FOG WILL FORM DAILY AND PLAT HAVOC WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES /AS WELL AS PLAGUING SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DRIVERS/. THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE FOG WILL LIFT INTO AN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STRATUS DECK...KEEPING HIGHS BELOW THE INVERSION IN THE
MID 50S EXCEPT ALONG THE WEST SIDE WHERE THE DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE
ADIABATICALLY WARMED AND DRIED...RESULTING IN SOME EROSION OF THE
FAR WEST-SIDE FOG. ABOVE THE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MARIPOSA AND OAKHURST REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
60S UNLESS THE INVERSION IS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE BERING SEA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND ENTER THE GULF OF
ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO OPEN INTO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST NEXT
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

BOTH MODELS DO TREAT THIS TROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER...DROPPING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS DAY. IF THIS HOLDS...THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS WITH THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
CREST.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN MIST/FOG
06Z-18Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897

KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 181229
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
429 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT TODAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRUSHES BY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT REMNANT SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD.
GENERALLY DRY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT
LIKELY TO BE SOME CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES.
THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAKE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST A TAD ABOVE CLIMO TODAY BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY
MORNING...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FT AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AFTER
SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY OVER MOST AREAS DURING THE PERIOD. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WHERE THE FOG AND
CLOUDS BREAK UP EACH DAY.

MODELS AGREE ON BEGINNING TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY AROUND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS UNTIL 09Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AREAS OF IFR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897

KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 181229
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
429 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT TODAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRUSHES BY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT REMNANT SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD.
GENERALLY DRY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT
LIKELY TO BE SOME CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES.
THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAKE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST A TAD ABOVE CLIMO TODAY BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY
MORNING...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FT AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AFTER
SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY OVER MOST AREAS DURING THE PERIOD. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WHERE THE FOG AND
CLOUDS BREAK UP EACH DAY.

MODELS AGREE ON BEGINNING TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY AROUND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS UNTIL 09Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AREAS OF IFR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897

KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 181229
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
429 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT TODAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRUSHES BY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT REMNANT SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD.
GENERALLY DRY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT
LIKELY TO BE SOME CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES.
THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAKE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST A TAD ABOVE CLIMO TODAY BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY
MORNING...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FT AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AFTER
SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY OVER MOST AREAS DURING THE PERIOD. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WHERE THE FOG AND
CLOUDS BREAK UP EACH DAY.

MODELS AGREE ON BEGINNING TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY AROUND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS UNTIL 09Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AREAS OF IFR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897

KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 181229
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
429 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT TODAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRUSHES BY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT REMNANT SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD.
GENERALLY DRY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT
LIKELY TO BE SOME CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES.
THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAKE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST A TAD ABOVE CLIMO TODAY BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY
MORNING...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FT AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AFTER
SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY OVER MOST AREAS DURING THE PERIOD. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WHERE THE FOG AND
CLOUDS BREAK UP EACH DAY.

MODELS AGREE ON BEGINNING TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY AROUND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS UNTIL 09Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AREAS OF IFR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965
KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897

KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 172300
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS. BY SUNDAY, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNEDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. UPSLOPE CLOUDS PUSHING AGAINST THE
NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
LIGHT RAIN FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONE REPORT OF 0.07 INCH AT
BEAR VALLEY SPRINGS.

THIS SHORT-WAVE WAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A FAST MOVER...AND WILL
IMPACT THE WFO HANFORD COUNTY WARNING/FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. QPF/S ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES FORECAST FOR YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 4500-5000
FEET AT YOSEMITE TO 5500-6000 FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACT ON THE GRAPEVINE OR HIGHWAY 58 THROUGH
TEHACHAPI PASS.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY 12Z
/0400 PST/ THURSDAY WHILE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z
/1000 PST/. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE TULE FOG
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS.

UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT STORM IS FORECAST TO REACH INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING THE
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM...THE MODELS PREDICT ONLY LIMITED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS FAR SOUTH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S STORM.

AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY STORM. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
FORECAST THIS TO BE A STRONG RIDGE...WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CLIMBING ABOVE 5820 METERS BY 06Z MONDAY
/2200 PST SUNDAY/. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ENTRENCHED OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DROPS THE TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS THE TROUGH TO BE AN INSIDE SLIDER.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING TULE
FOG DAILY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND IN THE DESERTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE BELOW
THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FOG LIFTS
/IF IT DOES/ EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS UNTIL 09Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AREAS OF IFR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-17       70:1958     40:1963     52:2012     25:1967
KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965

KBFL 12-17       75:1977     41:1985     54:1977     23:1901
KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 172300
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS. BY SUNDAY, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNEDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. UPSLOPE CLOUDS PUSHING AGAINST THE
NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
LIGHT RAIN FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONE REPORT OF 0.07 INCH AT
BEAR VALLEY SPRINGS.

THIS SHORT-WAVE WAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A FAST MOVER...AND WILL
IMPACT THE WFO HANFORD COUNTY WARNING/FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. QPF/S ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES FORECAST FOR YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 4500-5000
FEET AT YOSEMITE TO 5500-6000 FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACT ON THE GRAPEVINE OR HIGHWAY 58 THROUGH
TEHACHAPI PASS.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY 12Z
/0400 PST/ THURSDAY WHILE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z
/1000 PST/. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE TULE FOG
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS.

UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT STORM IS FORECAST TO REACH INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING THE
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM...THE MODELS PREDICT ONLY LIMITED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS FAR SOUTH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S STORM.

AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY STORM. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
FORECAST THIS TO BE A STRONG RIDGE...WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CLIMBING ABOVE 5820 METERS BY 06Z MONDAY
/2200 PST SUNDAY/. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ENTRENCHED OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DROPS THE TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS THE TROUGH TO BE AN INSIDE SLIDER.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING TULE
FOG DAILY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND IN THE DESERTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE BELOW
THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FOG LIFTS
/IF IT DOES/ EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS UNTIL 09Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AREAS OF IFR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-17       70:1958     40:1963     52:2012     25:1967
KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965

KBFL 12-17       75:1977     41:1985     54:1977     23:1901
KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




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