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000
FXUS66 KHNX 011014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRODUCING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYING AND COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MAIN AXIS OF SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND IS BRUSHING THE SIERRA
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NV. UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH NV WILL MOVE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL EJECT INTO NRN CA THROUGH WED WITH INC ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H500 HEIGHTS. MARINE AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER VALLEY TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND KEEP US AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW CENTER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE INTO
NRN CA BY SAT WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DROP OFF AFTER SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WE WILL SEE MORE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS AS
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING
BETTER MIXING AND IMPROVED SMOKE CONDITIONS TO AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 011014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRODUCING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYING AND COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MAIN AXIS OF SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND IS BRUSHING THE SIERRA
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NV. UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH NV WILL MOVE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL EJECT INTO NRN CA THROUGH WED WITH INC ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H500 HEIGHTS. MARINE AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER VALLEY TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND KEEP US AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW CENTER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE INTO
NRN CA BY SAT WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DROP OFF AFTER SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WE WILL SEE MORE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS AS
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING
BETTER MIXING AND IMPROVED SMOKE CONDITIONS TO AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 010411 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
911 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE... UPDATED TO REMOVE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STRENGTHENED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST AND SCALED BACK POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR STRONG SOLAR HEATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY. N.A.S.
LEMOORE TOPPED OUT AT 106 DEGREES. FRESNO...BAKERSFIELD...AVENAL...
THREE RIVERS AND THE HANFORD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ALL HAD HIGHS OF 105
DEGREES. TO THE NORTH...THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY REACHED 96
AND LOS BANOS HAD A HIGH OF 99.

THE MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES FROM
THIS AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THICKNESSES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HOLDING AT 5820 METERS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOO COOL AS THEY OVERFORECASTED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. HAVE TRENDED THE UPDATED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
FROM TODAY/S OBSERVED HIGHS...BUT SCALED BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA...AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
COULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 010411 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
911 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE... UPDATED TO REMOVE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STRENGTHENED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST AND SCALED BACK POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR STRONG SOLAR HEATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY. N.A.S.
LEMOORE TOPPED OUT AT 106 DEGREES. FRESNO...BAKERSFIELD...AVENAL...
THREE RIVERS AND THE HANFORD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ALL HAD HIGHS OF 105
DEGREES. TO THE NORTH...THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY REACHED 96
AND LOS BANOS HAD A HIGH OF 99.

THE MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES FROM
THIS AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THICKNESSES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HOLDING AT 5820 METERS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOO COOL AS THEY OVERFORECASTED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. HAVE TRENDED THE UPDATED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
FROM TODAY/S OBSERVED HIGHS...BUT SCALED BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA...AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
COULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 010252 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
752 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STRENGTHENED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR STRONG SOLAR HEATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY. N.A.S.
LEMOORE TOPPED OUT AT 106 DEGREES. FRESNO...BAKERSFIELD...AVENAL
AND THE HANFORD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ALL HAD HIGHS OF 105 DEGREES. TO
THE NORTH...THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY REACHED 96 AND LOS
BANOS HAD A HIGH OF 99.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 010252 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
752 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STRENGTHENED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR STRONG SOLAR HEATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY. N.A.S.
LEMOORE TOPPED OUT AT 106 DEGREES. FRESNO...BAKERSFIELD...AVENAL
AND THE HANFORD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ALL HAD HIGHS OF 105 DEGREES. TO
THE NORTH...THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY REACHED 96 AND LOS
BANOS HAD A HIGH OF 99.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 312139
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPTABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 312139
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPTABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 311031
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL
CA. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. BY MONDAY...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...EDGING DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 311031
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL
CA. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. BY MONDAY...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...EDGING DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 311031
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL
CA. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. BY MONDAY...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...EDGING DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 311031
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL
CA. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. BY MONDAY...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...EDGING DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302309
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
409 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MONSOON HAS ESSENTIALLY ARRIVED OVER THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
HUMIDITY...AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE 10K FEET SO AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT...THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN AND A LOT OF LIGHTNING ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. NONETHELESS...DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES SOUTH OF OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON SO NEAR THE BORDER OF KERN COUNTY AND VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAINING IN THE
SE FLOW ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE VICINITY OF FRAZIER PARK AND IN PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS OCCURRING.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SE WINDS ALOFT
COULD CARRY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH
AS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WHILE NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL CA AND END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER MONDAY...
THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVEN END ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST.

INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AVERAGE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. BFL STILL HAS A SHOT AT
TYING ITS RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH 06Z FRI. THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AFTER 20Z FRI. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...MV/DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 302309
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
409 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MONSOON HAS ESSENTIALLY ARRIVED OVER THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
HUMIDITY...AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE 10K FEET SO AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT...THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN AND A LOT OF LIGHTNING ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. NONETHELESS...DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES SOUTH OF OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON SO NEAR THE BORDER OF KERN COUNTY AND VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAINING IN THE
SE FLOW ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE VICINITY OF FRAZIER PARK AND IN PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS OCCURRING.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SE WINDS ALOFT
COULD CARRY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH
AS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WHILE NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL CA AND END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER MONDAY...
THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVEN END ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST.

INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AVERAGE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. BFL STILL HAS A SHOT AT
TYING ITS RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH 06Z FRI. THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AFTER 20Z FRI. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...MV/DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302309
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
409 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MONSOON HAS ESSENTIALLY ARRIVED OVER THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
HUMIDITY...AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE 10K FEET SO AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT...THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN AND A LOT OF LIGHTNING ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. NONETHELESS...DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES SOUTH OF OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON SO NEAR THE BORDER OF KERN COUNTY AND VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAINING IN THE
SE FLOW ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE VICINITY OF FRAZIER PARK AND IN PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS OCCURRING.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SE WINDS ALOFT
COULD CARRY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH
AS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WHILE NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL CA AND END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER MONDAY...
THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVEN END ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST.

INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AVERAGE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. BFL STILL HAS A SHOT AT
TYING ITS RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH 06Z FRI. THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AFTER 20Z FRI. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...MV/DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302309
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
409 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MONSOON HAS ESSENTIALLY ARRIVED OVER THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
HUMIDITY...AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE 10K FEET SO AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT...THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN AND A LOT OF LIGHTNING ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. NONETHELESS...DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES SOUTH OF OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON SO NEAR THE BORDER OF KERN COUNTY AND VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAINING IN THE
SE FLOW ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
IN THE VICINITY OF FRAZIER PARK AND IN PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS OCCURRING.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SE WINDS ALOFT
COULD CARRY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH
AS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WHILE NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL CA AND END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER MONDAY...
THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVEN END ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST.

INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AVERAGE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. BFL STILL HAS A SHOT AT
TYING ITS RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH 06Z FRI. THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AFTER 20Z FRI. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...MV/DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 301015
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAD BEGUN PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN INYO AND NORTHERN LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. THE LATEST GOES INFRA-RED LOOP SHOWS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER KERN COUNTY...SO KEEPING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LOOKS ON TRACK.

THERE WILL BE TWO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...BOTH DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING THAT COULD RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE STARTS. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WERE DRY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z /0200 PDT/...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
BAKERSFIELD WAS 10 PERCENT...AND AT AVENAL 14 PERCENT...BOTH DRIER
THAN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN THE PIUTES...HUMIDITIES WERE ONLY IN
THE 20/S. UNTIL THE LOWEST LEVELS MOISTEN...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS
INITIALLY WILL EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THERE IS ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND...RUNOFF FROM SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS...MUD
OR DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROAD EROSION...ESPECIALLY IN THE KERN DESERT
NEAR THE EL PASO MOUNTAINS...A FLOOD-PRONE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WERE SOLIDLY IN TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY...WITH FRESNO REACHING 108
DEGREES AND BAKERSFIELD A DEGREE LOWER. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER TODAY...BUT TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE 06Z NAM-12 HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM
THIS MONSOONAL SURGE...AND THE 03Z SREF DOES HAVE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IS
DRY NORTH OF VISALIA OR HANFORD. EVEN THE 29/15Z RFC QPF GUIDANCE
HAS 0 QPF FOR FRESNO...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA NEAR GIANT FOREST AND ROGERS CAMP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION NEXT WEEK WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS OF KERN
COUNTY AFTER 18Z TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 22Z TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JULY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 301015
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAD BEGUN PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN INYO AND NORTHERN LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. THE LATEST GOES INFRA-RED LOOP SHOWS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER KERN COUNTY...SO KEEPING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LOOKS ON TRACK.

THERE WILL BE TWO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...BOTH DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING THAT COULD RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE STARTS. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WERE DRY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z /0200 PDT/...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
BAKERSFIELD WAS 10 PERCENT...AND AT AVENAL 14 PERCENT...BOTH DRIER
THAN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN THE PIUTES...HUMIDITIES WERE ONLY IN
THE 20/S. UNTIL THE LOWEST LEVELS MOISTEN...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS
INITIALLY WILL EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THERE IS ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND...RUNOFF FROM SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS...MUD
OR DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROAD EROSION...ESPECIALLY IN THE KERN DESERT
NEAR THE EL PASO MOUNTAINS...A FLOOD-PRONE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WERE SOLIDLY IN TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY...WITH FRESNO REACHING 108
DEGREES AND BAKERSFIELD A DEGREE LOWER. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER TODAY...BUT TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE 06Z NAM-12 HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM
THIS MONSOONAL SURGE...AND THE 03Z SREF DOES HAVE RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IS
DRY NORTH OF VISALIA OR HANFORD. EVEN THE 29/15Z RFC QPF GUIDANCE
HAS 0 QPF FOR FRESNO...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA NEAR GIANT FOREST AND ROGERS CAMP.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION NEXT WEEK WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS OF KERN
COUNTY AFTER 18Z TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 22Z TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JULY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888

KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 300420 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
920 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...

.SYNOPSIS...A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA IN LOS ANGELES AND SAN
BERNADINO COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY. A STRONGER SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO KERN COUNTY ON THURSDAY
AND CAPE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS DUE TO THE CONCERN THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS FLOOD PRONE
HIGHWAYS IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE HEAT OF MID SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAKE
TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY YET THIS MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IF IT REMAINS ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RECORDS FOR HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HOT WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER CA AND BRING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ITS SIGNATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS OF THIS WRITING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERT ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING A HEALTHY
SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SLUG OF HIGH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FIRST IN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT
.THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT COULD
CARRY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND ANYTIME AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR MONSOONAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOWER AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED COMPARED TO THE LAST
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF HURRICANE DOLORES LAST WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH
LOWER IN COMPARISON. SO WHILE A TSTM COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES SINCE
FUELS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL CA ARE EXTREMELY PARCHED.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...HOWEVER...UNTIL WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
ONLY RESIDUAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE TO
A CLOUDIER...UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AREAS OF KERN COUNTY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY JULY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY IN
MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 300420 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
920 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...

.SYNOPSIS...A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA IN LOS ANGELES AND SAN
BERNADINO COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY. A STRONGER SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO KERN COUNTY ON THURSDAY
AND CAPE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS DUE TO THE CONCERN THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS FLOOD PRONE
HIGHWAYS IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE HEAT OF MID SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAKE
TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY YET THIS MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IF IT REMAINS ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RECORDS FOR HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HOT WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER CA AND BRING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ITS SIGNATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS OF THIS WRITING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERT ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING A HEALTHY
SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SLUG OF HIGH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FIRST IN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT
.THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT COULD
CARRY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND ANYTIME AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR MONSOONAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOWER AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED COMPARED TO THE LAST
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF HURRICANE DOLORES LAST WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH
LOWER IN COMPARISON. SO WHILE A TSTM COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES SINCE
FUELS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL CA ARE EXTREMELY PARCHED.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...HOWEVER...UNTIL WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
ONLY RESIDUAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE TO
A CLOUDIER...UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AREAS OF KERN COUNTY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY JULY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY IN
MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 292344 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
444 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HEAT OF MID SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAKE
TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY YET THIS MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IF IT REMAINS ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RECORDS FOR HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HOT WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER CA AND BRING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ITS SIGNATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS OF THIS WRITING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERT ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING A HEALTHY
SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SLUG OF HIGH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FIRST IN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT
..THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT COULD
CARRY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND ANYTIME AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR MONSOONAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOWER AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED COMPARED TO THE LAST
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF HURRICANE DOLORES LAST WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH
LOWER IN COMPARISON. SO WHILE A TSTM COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES SINCE
FUELS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL CA ARE EXTREMELY PARCHED.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...HOWEVER...UNTIL WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
ONLY RESIDUAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE TO
A CLOUDIER...UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AREAS OF KERN COUNTY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY JULY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY IN
MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 292344 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
444 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HEAT OF MID SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAKE
TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY YET THIS MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IF IT REMAINS ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RECORDS FOR HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HOT WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER CA AND BRING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ITS SIGNATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS OF THIS WRITING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERT ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING A HEALTHY
SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SLUG OF HIGH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FIRST IN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT
..THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT COULD
CARRY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND ANYTIME AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR MONSOONAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOWER AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED COMPARED TO THE LAST
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF HURRICANE DOLORES LAST WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH
LOWER IN COMPARISON. SO WHILE A TSTM COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES SINCE
FUELS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL CA ARE EXTREMELY PARCHED.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...HOWEVER...UNTIL WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
ONLY RESIDUAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE TO
A CLOUDIER...UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AREAS OF KERN COUNTY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY JULY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY IN
MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 292344 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
444 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HEAT OF MID SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAKE
TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY YET THIS MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IF IT REMAINS ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RECORDS FOR HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HOT WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER CA AND BRING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ITS SIGNATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS OF THIS WRITING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERT ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING A HEALTHY
SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SLUG OF HIGH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FIRST IN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT
..THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT COULD
CARRY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND ANYTIME AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR MONSOONAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOWER AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED COMPARED TO THE LAST
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF HURRICANE DOLORES LAST WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH
LOWER IN COMPARISON. SO WHILE A TSTM COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES SINCE
FUELS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL CA ARE EXTREMELY PARCHED.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...HOWEVER...UNTIL WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
ONLY RESIDUAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE TO
A CLOUDIER...UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AREAS OF KERN COUNTY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY JULY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY IN
MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 292344 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
444 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HEAT OF MID SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAKE
TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY YET THIS MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IF IT REMAINS ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RECORDS FOR HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HOT WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER CA AND BRING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ITS SIGNATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS OF THIS WRITING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERT ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING A HEALTHY
SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SLUG OF HIGH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FIRST IN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT
..THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT COULD
CARRY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND ANYTIME AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR MONSOONAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOWER AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED COMPARED TO THE LAST
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF HURRICANE DOLORES LAST WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH
LOWER IN COMPARISON. SO WHILE A TSTM COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES SINCE
FUELS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL CA ARE EXTREMELY PARCHED.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...HOWEVER...UNTIL WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
ONLY RESIDUAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE TO
A CLOUDIER...UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AREAS OF KERN COUNTY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY JULY 30 2015... UNHEALTHY IN
MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 292200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HEAT OF MID SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAKE
TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY YET THIS MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IF IT REMAINS ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RECORDS FOR HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HOT WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER CA AND BRING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ITS SIGNATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS OF THIS WRITING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERT ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING A HEALTHY
SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SLUG OF HIGH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FIRST IN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT
...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT COULD
CARRY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND ANYTIME AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR MONSOONAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOWER AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED COMPARED TO THE LAST
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF HURRICANE DOLORES LAST WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH
LOWER IN COMPARISON. SO WHILE A TSTM COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES SINCE
FUELS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL CA ARE EXTREMELY PARCHED.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...HOWEVER...UNTIL WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
ONLY RESIDUAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE TO
A CLOUDIER...UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS OF KERN
COUNTY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 292200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTWARD INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HEAT OF MID SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PROBABLY MAKE
TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY YET THIS MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IF IT REMAINS ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RECORDS FOR HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HOT WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. DURING THIS
TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER CA AND BRING
IN A GOOD DEAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ITS SIGNATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF TULARE COUNTY AND KERN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS OF THIS WRITING...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERT ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING A HEALTHY
SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SLUG OF HIGH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FIRST IN KERN COUNTY TONIGHT
...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT COULD
CARRY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND ANYTIME AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR MONSOONAL SURGE
WILL BE SHALLOWER AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED COMPARED TO THE LAST
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF HURRICANE DOLORES LAST WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH
LOWER IN COMPARISON. SO WHILE A TSTM COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES SINCE
FUELS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL CA ARE EXTREMELY PARCHED.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING.
IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY...HOWEVER...UNTIL WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
ONLY RESIDUAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. UNTIL THEN WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE TO
A CLOUDIER...UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS OF KERN
COUNTY AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





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