Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS66 KHNX 201040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT WARMING TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS WEEKEND AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE WILL RETURN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOMINATING THE REGION WITH FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING THE FLOW ALOFT IN A OFFSHORE DIRECTION. THIS
OFFSHORE FLOW IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY THE WEAK LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
A NORTHERLY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WHILE MOSTLY EAST OF THE DISTRICT...WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. IN ADDITION...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING THE ONE INCH LINE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA AND
ROTATING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY IS LOW
FOR THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL MENTION CHANCE LEVEL
PROBABILITIES.

THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START A WARMING TREND
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS PROGGING THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND OVER THE MIDWEST TOWARD MIDWEEK.
BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ONSHORE. THIS CHANGE IN THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND BEGIN MODERATING THE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY
MIDWEEK...ON AROUND WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A
COOLER AND POSSIBLY CLOUDY PATTERN AS A STORM DROPS TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS PROG THE STORM/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON LATE
WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE DISTRICT NEAR THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE PROGGING THE STORM TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE TAIL END MOVING THROUGH
MERCED COUNTY AND YOSEMITE. WHILE NO MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE
PLACED OVER MERCED COUNTY...OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE PROB OF PRECIP OVER THE YOSEMITE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE
TROUGH...COLD FRONT...PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURE WILL SEE GOOD
COOLING FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS VALUES DROP INTO THE LOWER 80S
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
CREST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TEHACHAPI
RANGE FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE
ALONG THE SOUTH END AND EAST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968
KFAT 09-22      104:1949     67:1923     72:1999     41:1968

KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
KBFL 09-22      105:2003     70:1923     74:1949     40:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 201040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT WARMING TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS WEEKEND AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE WILL RETURN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOMINATING THE REGION WITH FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING THE FLOW ALOFT IN A OFFSHORE DIRECTION. THIS
OFFSHORE FLOW IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY THE WEAK LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
A NORTHERLY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WHILE MOSTLY EAST OF THE DISTRICT...WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. IN ADDITION...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING THE ONE INCH LINE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA AND
ROTATING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY IS LOW
FOR THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL MENTION CHANCE LEVEL
PROBABILITIES.

THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START A WARMING TREND
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS PROGGING THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND OVER THE MIDWEST TOWARD MIDWEEK.
BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ONSHORE. THIS CHANGE IN THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND BEGIN MODERATING THE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY
MIDWEEK...ON AROUND WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A
COOLER AND POSSIBLY CLOUDY PATTERN AS A STORM DROPS TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS PROG THE STORM/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON LATE
WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE DISTRICT NEAR THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE PROGGING THE STORM TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE TAIL END MOVING THROUGH
MERCED COUNTY AND YOSEMITE. WHILE NO MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE
PLACED OVER MERCED COUNTY...OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE PROB OF PRECIP OVER THE YOSEMITE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FROM THE
TROUGH...COLD FRONT...PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURE WILL SEE GOOD
COOLING FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS VALUES DROP INTO THE LOWER 80S
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
CREST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TEHACHAPI
RANGE FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE
ALONG THE SOUTH END AND EAST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968
KFAT 09-22      104:1949     67:1923     72:1999     41:1968

KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
KBFL 09-22      105:2003     70:1923     74:1949     40:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 200350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
850 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DISSIPATED WITH THE COOLING OF THE AIRMASS. ONE POTENTIAL CELL
OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY IN FAR NORTHEASTERN FRESNO COUNTY DID
NOT PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING...NOR DID ANY RAIN GAUGES IN THE AREA
REPORT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING/S FORECAST.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING...KEEPING A TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. FRESNO
HAD A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...THE FIRST TIME SINCE AUGUST 4TH /86
DEGREES/ THAT THE HIGH WAS NOT AT LEAST 90. BAKERSFIELD WAS EVEN
COOLER WITH A HIGH OF 88 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME BAKERSFIELD HAD A
HIGH BELOW 90 WAS JULY 23RD...WHEN THE HIGH WAS 89. THE LAST TIME
BAKERSFIELD HAD A HIGH OF 88 WAS JUNE 26TH.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SLOW THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW A BIT...AND DO NOT BRING IT OVER THE DIABLO RANGE UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. STILL COULD SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH
THIS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY /2300 PDT SATURDAY/...THE MODELS EJECT
THE LOW RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...PLACING THE LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY 18Z /1100 PDT/
SUNDAY. THIS FAST MOVEMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE
COAST ON SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD
BE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING
IT INLAND ON FRIDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY NEAR YOSEMITE AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TEHACHAPI RANGE AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...SANGER/BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 200350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
850 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DISSIPATED WITH THE COOLING OF THE AIRMASS. ONE POTENTIAL CELL
OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY IN FAR NORTHEASTERN FRESNO COUNTY DID
NOT PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING...NOR DID ANY RAIN GAUGES IN THE AREA
REPORT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING/S FORECAST.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING...KEEPING A TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. FRESNO
HAD A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...THE FIRST TIME SINCE AUGUST 4TH /86
DEGREES/ THAT THE HIGH WAS NOT AT LEAST 90. BAKERSFIELD WAS EVEN
COOLER WITH A HIGH OF 88 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME BAKERSFIELD HAD A
HIGH BELOW 90 WAS JULY 23RD...WHEN THE HIGH WAS 89. THE LAST TIME
BAKERSFIELD HAD A HIGH OF 88 WAS JUNE 26TH.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SLOW THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW A BIT...AND DO NOT BRING IT OVER THE DIABLO RANGE UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. STILL COULD SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH
THIS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY /2300 PDT SATURDAY/...THE MODELS EJECT
THE LOW RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...PLACING THE LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY 18Z /1100 PDT/
SUNDAY. THIS FAST MOVEMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE
COAST ON SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD
BE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING
IT INLAND ON FRIDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY NEAR YOSEMITE AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TEHACHAPI RANGE AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...SANGER/BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 192145
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE
COAST ON SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD
BE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING
IT INLAND ON FRIDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY NEAR YOSEMITE AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. ALSO EXPECT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FW...BEAN
AVN...BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 192145
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE
COAST ON SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD
BE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING
IT INLAND ON FRIDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY NEAR YOSEMITE AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. ALSO EXPECT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FW...BEAN
AVN...BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 191102
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY
CLOSED UPPER JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH
EJECTS EAST OVER THEN NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY THEN PARK OFFSHORE OF SOCAL. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE COAST ON
SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT TODAY OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA AS THE
LATEST NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST MIDWEEK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PRECIP TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.

A MODEST ONSHORE REMAINS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. GUSTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AND WILL TREND LOWER LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES COOLED
TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS
TODAY. A SLIGHT WARMUP IS IN STORE OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RISING
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.
A COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO NEAR IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 191102
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY
CLOSED UPPER JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH
EJECTS EAST OVER THEN NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY THEN PARK OFFSHORE OF SOCAL. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE COAST ON
SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT TODAY OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA AS THE
LATEST NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST MIDWEEK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PRECIP TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.

A MODEST ONSHORE REMAINS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. GUSTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AND WILL TREND LOWER LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES COOLED
TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS
TODAY. A SLIGHT WARMUP IS IN STORE OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RISING
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.
A COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO NEAR IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 182239
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
339 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOLER ACROSS THE DISTRICT. 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURES TRENDS RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH 24 HOUR
TRENDS 8-10 DEGREES LOWER IN THE SJV AND COOLER IN SOME FOOTHILLS
LOCALES. THE FEATURE FOR THE COOLING IS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS IN GOOD
CONSENSUS AND INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST LATE FRIDAY. THEN PUSHING NORTHEAST OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER SATELLITE DERIVED
PW ALSO SHOW MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
CENTER OF THE TROUGH. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE PROBABLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE LOW AND OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AREA. MODELS DEVELOP INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN SPREADING OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS SOME VALLEY LIGHTING AND
SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST
HAS INCREASED OVER 5KFT. THUS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BELOW THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES ON WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY AND THE DESERT PASSES INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN. THE SIERRA WILL BE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO NV SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN RISING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS
MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING
TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 182239
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
339 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOLER ACROSS THE DISTRICT. 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURES TRENDS RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH 24 HOUR
TRENDS 8-10 DEGREES LOWER IN THE SJV AND COOLER IN SOME FOOTHILLS
LOCALES. THE FEATURE FOR THE COOLING IS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS IN GOOD
CONSENSUS AND INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST LATE FRIDAY. THEN PUSHING NORTHEAST OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER SATELLITE DERIVED
PW ALSO SHOW MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
CENTER OF THE TROUGH. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE PROBABLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE LOW AND OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AREA. MODELS DEVELOP INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN SPREADING OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS SOME VALLEY LIGHTING AND
SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST
HAS INCREASED OVER 5KFT. THUS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BELOW THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES ON WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY AND THE DESERT PASSES INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN. THE SIERRA WILL BE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO NV SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN RISING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS
MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING
TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 181042
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
342 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRAS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CA COAST. WV IMAGERY AND GOES
HIGH DENSITY WINDS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR 41N/127W WHICH IS TAKING AIM AT THE
NORCAL COAST. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
A VERY NOTICABLE COOLING TREND TODAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA
WHERE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS PER THE 00Z AND 06Z WRF RUNS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND OVER THE PASSES OF
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF AND FORM A CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN STATIONARY OFF THE SOCAL COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR AREA
BY SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. AT THIS TIME THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE IN OUR CWFA...BUT IF ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE UPPER LOW ON SATRUDAY
WHILE IT IS OFF THE SOCAL COAST...THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY THEN RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
NOTICABLE RISES IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EJECTING THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY AS A DRY
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INLAND. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE OUR AREA UNDER
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE AND ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE UPWARD TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND
IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AND ARE NOT AS
PRONOUNCED WITH THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED BY THE ECWMF AND
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 181042
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
342 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRAS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CA COAST. WV IMAGERY AND GOES
HIGH DENSITY WINDS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR 41N/127W WHICH IS TAKING AIM AT THE
NORCAL COAST. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
A VERY NOTICABLE COOLING TREND TODAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA
WHERE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS PER THE 00Z AND 06Z WRF RUNS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND OVER THE PASSES OF
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF AND FORM A CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN STATIONARY OFF THE SOCAL COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR AREA
BY SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. AT THIS TIME THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE IN OUR CWFA...BUT IF ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE UPPER LOW ON SATRUDAY
WHILE IT IS OFF THE SOCAL COAST...THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY THEN RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
NOTICABLE RISES IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EJECTING THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY AS A DRY
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INLAND. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE OUR AREA UNDER
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE AND ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE UPWARD TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND
IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AND ARE NOT AS
PRONOUNCED WITH THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED BY THE ECWMF AND
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 172214
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING THURSDAY AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST HAS KEPT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. THERE IS STILL A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERT NEAR EDWARDS AFB OR OVER THE
CREST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR YOSEMITE IN THE MORNING AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MAINLY NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO USHER COOLER
AIR INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH HIGHS DROPPING 5-10 DEGREES
THURSDAY...BRINGING THEM BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST OF
THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS AGREE THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PREVENT THE RIDGE
FROM BECOMING STRONG. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BUT ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-17      105:1979     73:1950     74:1984     48:1965
KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978

KBFL 09-17      108:1913     74:1993     76:1979     45:1915
KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FW...BEAN
AVN...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities