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000
FXUS66 KHNX 310942
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
242 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SLIDE INTO THE VALLEY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COVER MOST
AREAS BY LATE IN THE EVENING. LIKEWISE SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING IN
THE SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 7500 FEET AT FIRST FALLING TO 5500
FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE END MOST AREAS OF THE VALLEY SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN...WITH OVER A FOOT OF SNOW
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THIS
WEEKEND AND SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. QUIET AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO
NUDGE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. RAIN OVER COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING THE ENTIRE
REGION BY MIDNIGHT.

THE HIGH RES ARW...THE HRRR...AND THE SREF ALL INDICATE THAT RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST MERCED COUNTY BY 2 PM
PDT...SPREADING SOUTH INTO FRESNO COUNTY BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8
PM...AND INTO KERN COUNTY BY 10 PM. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
WITH TIMING AS THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT.

IN ADDITION TO RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATING DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WHERE SURFACE CAPE VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 600 AND 700 J/KG.

SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM 8500 FT
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH SIERRA COULD EASILY SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

AS FAR AS RAIN TOTALS GO...THE VALLEY COULD SEE BETWEEN A THIRD OF
AN INCH TO NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE A BIT LESS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE
REGION SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SIERRA WILL
LIKELY PICK UP ANOTHER FEW QUICK INCHES OF SNOW...HOWEVER TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. BY THURSDAY...VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S...NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z FRIDAY
AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER MERCED COUNTY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971
KFAT 11-02       88:1949     53:1957     56:2012     34:1946

KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
KBFL 11-02       89:1949     60:1947     58:1992     31:1935
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ097.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 310341 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
841 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SLIDE INTO THE
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COVER
MOST AREAS BY LATE IN THE EVENING. LIKEWISE SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING
IN THE SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 7500 FEET AT FIRST FALLING TO
5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE END MOST AREAS OF THE VALLEY
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN...OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THIS
WEEKEND AND SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. QUIET AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY. HRRR INDICATING
WIND GUSTS STAYING UP ABOVE 40 MPH THROUGH 4 TO 5 AM. HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE...MAINLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO IMPACT HIGHWAY 46 AND 41 THROUGH
THE COTTONWOOD CANYON. THESE WINDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN MID DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE STORM SYSTEM WE/VE BEEN WATCHING FOR NEARLY A WEEK IS NOW AT
OUR DOORSTEP...PRIMED TO BRING US OUR FIRST NOTABLE WINTER WEATHER
OF THE SEASON. GIVEN THAT WE/VE GONE MONTHS WITHOUT A GOOD STORM
WE/RE HITTING THIS FIRST ONE A BIT HARDER ON OUR MESSAGING. THE
WEATHER REMAINS DRY AND MILD AND WITHIN 36 HOURS WILL BECOME
COLD...WET AND BLUSTERY.

IR SAT DEPICTS THE PRIMARY LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF JUNEAU ALASKA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AND ELONGATED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. A JET
STREAK/PV MAX IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEST AMOUNTS OF PWAT ARE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WAITING TO BE SCOOPED UP. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE ALL INDICATIVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING IN TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE/VE ALSO INCLUDE
A MENTION OF THUNDER...MAINLY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...DUE TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM THE DYNAMIC COOLING.

TIMING IS OF COURSE A BIG CONCERN GIVEN TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE
THE ONE DAY OF THE YEAR WHEN MASS AMOUNTS OF CHILDREN WILL BE OUT
AND ABOUT. LEANING ON THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND SREF
PLUMES...APPEARS THE RAIN/FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST /NEAR
LOS BANOS/ AROUND 5 PM...MOVING TOWARD FRESNO AROUND 8 PM...THEN
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT 11 PM. OF COURSE THOSE TIMES ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE BUT THEY ARE THE CURRENT THINKING.

THE CHANGE WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE SIERRA WHERE WE/RE
EXPECTING OVER A FOOT OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...GIVEN IT IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON...WE OPTED FOR A
WINTER STORM WARNING KINGS CANYON NORTH AND AN ADVISORY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON SNOW LEVELS...STARTING NEAR 7500
FEET FRIDAY THEN FALLING TO 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL SEE RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAYBE A FEW
IN THE VALLEY. THE TRAILING AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK APPRECIABLY
UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME SO MAY JUST END UP WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
FAIR WEATHER CU AND THE TYPICAL HEAVY BANK OF STRATOCU ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AROUND BAKERSFIELD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SATURDAY-MONDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...15 TO 30
DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD 60S IN THE VALLEY. IT/LL BE THE COOLEST
DAY SINCE LATE APRIL.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY. WITH
WET GROUND...STABLE CONDITIONS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...WARMING AND DRYING WILL
ENSUE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN OVER MERCED COUNTY AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971

KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ097.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY CAZ089-091.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 310341 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
841 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SLIDE INTO THE
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COVER
MOST AREAS BY LATE IN THE EVENING. LIKEWISE SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING
IN THE SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 7500 FEET AT FIRST FALLING TO
5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE END MOST AREAS OF THE VALLEY
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN...OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THIS
WEEKEND AND SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. QUIET AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY. HRRR INDICATING
WIND GUSTS STAYING UP ABOVE 40 MPH THROUGH 4 TO 5 AM. HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE...MAINLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO IMPACT HIGHWAY 46 AND 41 THROUGH
THE COTTONWOOD CANYON. THESE WINDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN MID DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE STORM SYSTEM WE/VE BEEN WATCHING FOR NEARLY A WEEK IS NOW AT
OUR DOORSTEP...PRIMED TO BRING US OUR FIRST NOTABLE WINTER WEATHER
OF THE SEASON. GIVEN THAT WE/VE GONE MONTHS WITHOUT A GOOD STORM
WE/RE HITTING THIS FIRST ONE A BIT HARDER ON OUR MESSAGING. THE
WEATHER REMAINS DRY AND MILD AND WITHIN 36 HOURS WILL BECOME
COLD...WET AND BLUSTERY.

IR SAT DEPICTS THE PRIMARY LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF JUNEAU ALASKA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AND ELONGATED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. A JET
STREAK/PV MAX IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEST AMOUNTS OF PWAT ARE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WAITING TO BE SCOOPED UP. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE ALL INDICATIVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING IN TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE/VE ALSO INCLUDE
A MENTION OF THUNDER...MAINLY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...DUE TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM THE DYNAMIC COOLING.

TIMING IS OF COURSE A BIG CONCERN GIVEN TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE
THE ONE DAY OF THE YEAR WHEN MASS AMOUNTS OF CHILDREN WILL BE OUT
AND ABOUT. LEANING ON THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND SREF
PLUMES...APPEARS THE RAIN/FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST /NEAR
LOS BANOS/ AROUND 5 PM...MOVING TOWARD FRESNO AROUND 8 PM...THEN
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT 11 PM. OF COURSE THOSE TIMES ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE BUT THEY ARE THE CURRENT THINKING.

THE CHANGE WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE SIERRA WHERE WE/RE
EXPECTING OVER A FOOT OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...GIVEN IT IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON...WE OPTED FOR A
WINTER STORM WARNING KINGS CANYON NORTH AND AN ADVISORY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON SNOW LEVELS...STARTING NEAR 7500
FEET FRIDAY THEN FALLING TO 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL SEE RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAYBE A FEW
IN THE VALLEY. THE TRAILING AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK APPRECIABLY
UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME SO MAY JUST END UP WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
FAIR WEATHER CU AND THE TYPICAL HEAVY BANK OF STRATOCU ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AROUND BAKERSFIELD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SATURDAY-MONDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...15 TO 30
DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD 60S IN THE VALLEY. IT/LL BE THE COOLEST
DAY SINCE LATE APRIL.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY. WITH
WET GROUND...STABLE CONDITIONS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...WARMING AND DRYING WILL
ENSUE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN OVER MERCED COUNTY AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971

KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ097.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY CAZ089-091.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 302115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SLIDE INTO THE
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COVER
MOST AREAS BY LATE IN THE EVENING. LIKEWISE SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING
IN THE SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 7500 FEET...FALLING TO 5500
FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS OF THE VALLEY SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN...OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH SIERRA. LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE DESERT
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND AND SOME FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM SYSTEM WE/VE BEEN WATCHING FOR NEARLY A WEEK IS NOW AT
OUR DOORSTEP...PRIMED TO BRING US OUR FIRST NOTABLE WINTER WEATHER
OF THE SEASON. GIVEN THAT WE/VE GONE MONTHS WITHOUT A GOOD STORM
WE/RE HITTING THIS FIRST ONE A BIT HARDER ON OUR MESSAGING. THE
WEATHER REMAINS DRY AND MILD AND WITHIN 36 HOURS WILL BECOME
COLD...WET AND BLUSTERY.

IR SAT DEPICTS THE PRIMARY LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF JUNEAU ALASKA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AND ELONGATED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. A JET
STREAK/PV MAX IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEST AMOUNTS OF PWAT ARE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WAITING TO BE SCOOPED UP. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE ALL INDICATIVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING IN TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE/VE ALSO INCLUDE
A MENTION OF THUNDER...MAINLY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...DUE TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM THE DYNAMIC COOLING.

TIMING IS OF COURSE A BIG CONCERN GIVEN TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE
THE ONE DAY OF THE YEAR WHEN MASS AMOUNTS OF CHILDREN WILL BE OUT
AND ABOUT. LEANING ON THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND SREF
PLUMES...APPEARS THE RAIN/FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST /NEAR
LOS BANOS/ AROUND 5 PM...MOVING TOWARD FRESNO AROUND 8 PM...THEN
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT 11 PM. OF COURSE THOSE TIMES ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE BUT THEY ARE THE CURRENT THINKING.

THE CHANGE WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE SIERRA WHERE WE/RE
EXPECTING OVER A FOOT OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...GIVEN IT IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON...WE OPTED FOR A
WINTER STORM WARNING KINGS CANYON NORTH AND AN ADVISORY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE FAIRLY LOCKED IN ON SNOW LEVELS...STARTING NEAR 7500
FEET FRIDAY THEN FALLING TO 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL SEE RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAYBE A FEW
IN THE VALLEY. THE TRAILING AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK APPRECIABLY
UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME SO MAY JUST END UP WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
FAIR WEATHER CU AND THE TYPICAL HEAVY BANK OF STRATOCU ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AROUND BAKERSFIELD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SATURDAY-MONDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...15 TO 30
DEGREES...WITH WIDESPREAD 60S IN THE VALLEY. IT/LL BE THE COOLEST
DAY SINCE LATE APRIL.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY. WITH
WET GROUND...STABLE CONDITIONS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...WARMING AND DRYING WILL
ENSUE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
IN HAZE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971

KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ097.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...INIGUEZ/CB
AVN/FW...INIGUEZ
PREV DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...INIGUEZ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 301040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY OF DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N/127W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST AND
REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT FOR OUR AREA OTHER THAN TO PROVIDE FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY TODAY AND PROVIDE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY IS INDICATING A COLD AND MOIST UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR 52N/144W. THE 06Z WRF LIKE IT/S PRECEDING RUNS IS
INDICATING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CA
COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY AND DIG A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN TERMS OF IT/S TIMING AND BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON
SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BY SATURDAY MORNING
THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN SEVERAL MONTHS WITH QPF
PROGS INDICATING MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL PICK UP
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET
AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM KINGS CANYON NORTHWARD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER
SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATRUDAY AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
THE SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON
SUNDAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COOL AND DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO CA ON MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
TUESDAY. WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...FOG COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971

KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 301040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY OF DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N/127W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST AND
REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT FOR OUR AREA OTHER THAN TO PROVIDE FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY TODAY AND PROVIDE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY IS INDICATING A COLD AND MOIST UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR 52N/144W. THE 06Z WRF LIKE IT/S PRECEDING RUNS IS
INDICATING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CA
COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY AND DIG A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN TERMS OF IT/S TIMING AND BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON
SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BY SATURDAY MORNING
THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN SEVERAL MONTHS WITH QPF
PROGS INDICATING MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL PICK UP
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET
AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM KINGS CANYON NORTHWARD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER
SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATRUDAY AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
THE SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON
SUNDAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COOL AND DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO CA ON MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
TUESDAY. WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...FOG COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971

KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 292226
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
326 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE YOSEMITE AREA.
OTHERWISE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPING CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DRY AND CLEAR TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THURSDAY FROM AN APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE SCAL COAST.
HOWEVER EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT AS A RIDGE OVER CA
AMPLIFIES NE AND SHIFTS MORE INLAND. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL CA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED STARTING THURSDAY DUE TO A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THE STORM WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND A PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE PAC NW. MODELS PROG
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER
LOW DIGS SE TOWARDS CA. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT. MEDIUM RANGE OP MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLE
MEAN IN STRENGHT AND TIMING. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE EC MODEL BRINGS
AIR A BIT COLDER AND MORE RAIN THAN GFS TOWARDS THE TEHACHAPIS AND
SOUTH VALLEY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TRACK TO SPOIL HALLOWEEN AS MODELS FORECAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TO NORTH SECTORS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE RAIN...STRONG SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN BREEZY S-SW WINDS WITH BLOWING
DUST POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MERCED AREA AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE VALLEY. MODEL SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASE TO 20-25MM AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN
FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND
LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UPDATED QPF FORECAST YIELDS HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH POSSIBLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
SATURDAY A UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE TROUGH THE TROUGH. AXIS OF
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN STRONG WEST FLOW AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COOL DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. A WARM AND DRY TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
COMBINES WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-29       88:1915     55:1996     61:1914     29:1971
KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972

KBFL 10-29       92:1913     56:1971     61:1914     31:1900
KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 291036
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
336 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND TODAY AND
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS MORNING. 06Z WRF INDICATING
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND TODAY THEN
SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A RESULT OF RISES IN HEIGHTS
AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THE LOW IS PROGGED
TO SPREAD INCREASED MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWFA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS CENTRAL CA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED. THE CURRENT TIMING INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME SHOWERY ON
SATURDAY THEN TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RFC QPF PROGS ARE
INDICATING A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THE VALLEY IN OVER SIX MONTHS. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN
UTILIZING A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS OF
THIS STORM AND LATER SHIFTS WILL BE CONSIDERING UPGRADING TO A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SINCE THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL CA ON SATURDAY...A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IS LIKELY ON SATRUDAY. IN ADDITION TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED WINDS...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATRUDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEG F BELOW THURSDAY/S
READINGS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL CA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A SLOW
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-29       88:1915     55:1996     61:1914     29:1971
KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972

KBFL 10-29       92:1913     56:1971     61:1914     31:1900
KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 291036
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
336 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND TODAY AND
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS MORNING. 06Z WRF INDICATING
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND TODAY THEN
SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A RESULT OF RISES IN HEIGHTS
AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THE LOW IS PROGGED
TO SPREAD INCREASED MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWFA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS CENTRAL CA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED. THE CURRENT TIMING INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME SHOWERY ON
SATURDAY THEN TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RFC QPF PROGS ARE
INDICATING A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THE VALLEY IN OVER SIX MONTHS. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN
UTILIZING A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS OF
THIS STORM AND LATER SHIFTS WILL BE CONSIDERING UPGRADING TO A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SINCE THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL CA ON SATURDAY...A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IS LIKELY ON SATRUDAY. IN ADDITION TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED WINDS...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATRUDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEG F BELOW THURSDAY/S
READINGS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL CA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A SLOW
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-29       88:1915     55:1996     61:1914     29:1971
KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972

KBFL 10-29       92:1913     56:1971     61:1914     31:1900
KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 282232
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
332 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND TODAY AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
DRY AND CLEAR TODAY. THIS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS A RIDGE OFF SCAL
COAST EXTENDS NE AND INLAND THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK DUE TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
WIND FLOW TURNS SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL CA THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OFF THE PAC NW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT. MEDIUM RANGE OP MODELS ARE STRONGER THAN THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT TIMING OF SYSTEM IN GOOD CONSENSUS. THE EC
MODEL BRINGS COLDER AIR AND MORE RAIN THAN GFS TOWARDS THE
TEHACHAPIS AND SOUTH VALLEY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY SPOIL HALLOWEEN FOR SOME TRICK OR TREATERS
AS MODELS FORECAST PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TO NORTH SECTORS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MERCED AREA AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. PW
VALUES ALONG FRONT NEAR 15MM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT MOMENT. HOWEVER
MODEL MEAN PW FORECAST INCREASES TO 20MM AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PROBABLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
ABOVE 6KFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING TROUGH THE TROUGH. THE AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
STRONG WEST FLOW AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BELOW
THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

A COOL DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. A WARM AND DRY TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
COMBINES WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-28       89:2003     58:1971     61:1987     33:1970
KFAT 10-29       88:1915     55:1996     61:1914     29:1971
KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972

KBFL 10-28       92:2003     55:1971     61:1987     35:1919
KBFL 10-29       92:1913     56:1971     61:1914     31:1900
KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





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