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000
FXUS66 KHNX 300959
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
259 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS QUICKLY EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DIRECTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE HIGH RES NMM...ARW...AND THE
NAM ALL INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CREST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY EAST...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
OVER THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CA ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS OF NOW...FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WE WILL STILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW ANY POTENTIAL RECORD
BREAKING HEAT.

IN ADDITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED RH VALUES WITH POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891

KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 300959
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
259 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS QUICKLY EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DIRECTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE HIGH RES NMM...ARW...AND THE
NAM ALL INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CREST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY EAST...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
OVER THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CA ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS OF NOW...FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WE WILL STILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW ANY POTENTIAL RECORD
BREAKING HEAT.

IN ADDITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED RH VALUES WITH POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891

KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 291935
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1235 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BY MID WEEK A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER THE
TEHACHAPI AND GRAPEVINE AREAS WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL FOR A POST
FRONTAL DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
FORECAST TREND FOR THE WEEK IS WARMING TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BUILD 500 MB HEIGHTS
TO AROUND 5920 METERS DURING THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS DATA
IS BACKED UP VERY STRONGLY BY THE ENSEMBLE DATA (WHICH COMPARES
MANY MODELS AND MANY RUNS OF THESE MODELS). RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HEIGHT VALUES BASED ON DATA GOING BACK TO 1979 INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH MAYBE SOME RECORDS IN
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

WITH THE WARMING AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY,
FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS...IN CLOUDS...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FROM 20Z TODAY UNTIL 03Z TUE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971

KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 290940
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...
ENDING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID WEEK A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 09Z /0200 PDT/ THIS MORNING...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THE EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
OVER THE TRIPLE-POINT OF ARIZONA...NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL PERMIT AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.;

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REACHED AS HIGH AS
1.40 INCH AT COULTERVILLE. FRESNO TIED ITS RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE
DATE OF 0.18 INCH...AN AMOUNT THAT EXCEEDED THE 30-YEAR NORMAL
RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER OF 0.17 INCH. FOR THE
FIRST QUARTER /JULY 1ST TO SEPTEMBER 30TH/...FRESNO IS AT 100
PERCENT OF ITS NORMAL OF 0.19 INCH.

SNOW FELL DOWN TO AT LEAST 9000 FEET...WITH 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
MOUNT TOM...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT KAISER POINT.

WITH THE LOW FINALLY MOVING EASTWARD...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA...
500-MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 500-MB 5880-METER
HEIGHT LINE AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OREGON BY 18Z /1100 PDT/
FRIDAY /FURTHER NORTH THAN WAS FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER/.
850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM-12...GFS AND ECMWF TO
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LEVEL OFF AROUND 21-22 C FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER
90S THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS...IN CLOUDS...OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE THIS
MORNING AND THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971

KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 290940
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...
ENDING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID WEEK A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 09Z /0200 PDT/ THIS MORNING...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THE EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
OVER THE TRIPLE-POINT OF ARIZONA...NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL PERMIT AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.;

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REACHED AS HIGH AS
1.40 INCH AT COULTERVILLE. FRESNO TIED ITS RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE
DATE OF 0.18 INCH...AN AMOUNT THAT EXCEEDED THE 30-YEAR NORMAL
RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER OF 0.17 INCH. FOR THE
FIRST QUARTER /JULY 1ST TO SEPTEMBER 30TH/...FRESNO IS AT 100
PERCENT OF ITS NORMAL OF 0.19 INCH.

SNOW FELL DOWN TO AT LEAST 9000 FEET...WITH 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
MOUNT TOM...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT KAISER POINT.

WITH THE LOW FINALLY MOVING EASTWARD...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA...
500-MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 500-MB 5880-METER
HEIGHT LINE AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OREGON BY 18Z /1100 PDT/
FRIDAY /FURTHER NORTH THAN WAS FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER/.
850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM-12...GFS AND ECMWF TO
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LEVEL OFF AROUND 21-22 C FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER
90S THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS...IN CLOUDS...OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE THIS
MORNING AND THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971

KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 290426 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
926 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
MID WEEK A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
VALLEY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH TAPERED OFF, JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR DELANO
ATTM.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPS IN
THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY THAN NEAR MERCED DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR, SATELLITE AND WEBCAM IMAGERY SHOW THE NEXT
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SHAVER
LAKE AREA WHILE OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORMING TO THE SOUTH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A VORTICITY CENTER (AREA OF SPIN)
ROTATING AROUND THE BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. LIGHT RAIN IS EVEN BEING
REPORTED OVER STANISLAUS COUNTY AND THIS WILL MOVE DOWN THE SJV
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THIS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER I DON`T EXPECT
ANY LARGE HAIL AT THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IF THE LOW ACTUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD AS
THE FORECAST MODELS PROJECT, ALL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL COME
TO AN END BY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING IS BASED ON
THAT OUTCOME HOWEVER WITH CLOSED LOWS, THE ACTUAL EJECTION TIME
CAN BE VERY TRICKY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
BIG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME
AS HEIGHTS AT 500 MB RISE TO AROUND 5880 METERS. LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE 90S AND MAYBE SOME HOTTEST
LOCATIONS MAY SEE 100?. IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL WEEKEND TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE SIERRA FOR THAT HIKE THAT GOT POSTPONED YESTERDAY
AND TODAY!

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 06Z MON WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 290426 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
926 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
MID WEEK A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
VALLEY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH TAPERED OFF, JUST A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR DELANO
ATTM.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPS IN
THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY THAN NEAR MERCED DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR, SATELLITE AND WEBCAM IMAGERY SHOW THE NEXT
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SHAVER
LAKE AREA WHILE OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORMING TO THE SOUTH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A VORTICITY CENTER (AREA OF SPIN)
ROTATING AROUND THE BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. LIGHT RAIN IS EVEN BEING
REPORTED OVER STANISLAUS COUNTY AND THIS WILL MOVE DOWN THE SJV
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THIS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER I DON`T EXPECT
ANY LARGE HAIL AT THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IF THE LOW ACTUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD AS
THE FORECAST MODELS PROJECT, ALL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL COME
TO AN END BY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING IS BASED ON
THAT OUTCOME HOWEVER WITH CLOSED LOWS, THE ACTUAL EJECTION TIME
CAN BE VERY TRICKY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
BIG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME
AS HEIGHTS AT 500 MB RISE TO AROUND 5880 METERS. LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE 90S AND MAYBE SOME HOTTEST
LOCATIONS MAY SEE 100?. IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL WEEKEND TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE SIERRA FOR THAT HIKE THAT GOT POSTPONED YESTERDAY
AND TODAY!

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 06Z MON WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 282040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID WEEK A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR, SATELLITE AND WEBCAM IMAGERY SHOW THE NEXT
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SHAVER
LAKE AREA WHILE OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORMING TO THE SOUTH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A VORTICITY CENTER (AREA OF SPIN)
ROTATING AROUND THE BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. LIGHT RAIN IS EVEN BEINGREPORTED
OVER STANISLAUS COUNTY AND THIS WILL MOVE DOWN THE SJV THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER I DON`T EXPECT ANY
LARGE HAIL AT THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND IF THE LOW ACTUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD AS THE
FORECAST MODELS PROJECT, ALL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL COME TO
AN END BY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING IS BASED ON THAT
OUTCOME HOWEVER WITH CLOSED LOWS, THE ACTUAL EJECTION TIME CAN BE
VERY TRICKY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
BIG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME
AS HEIGHTS AT 500 MB RISE TO AROUND 5880 METERS. LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE 90S AND MAYBE SOME HOTTEST
LOCATIONS MAY SEE 100?. IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL WEEKEND TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE SIERRA FOR THAT HIKE THAT GOT POSTPONED YESTERDAY
AND TODAY!

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 06Z MON WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 282040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID WEEK A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR, SATELLITE AND WEBCAM IMAGERY SHOW THE NEXT
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SHAVER
LAKE AREA WHILE OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORMING TO THE SOUTH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY A VORTICITY CENTER (AREA OF SPIN)
ROTATING AROUND THE BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. LIGHT RAIN IS EVEN BEINGREPORTED
OVER STANISLAUS COUNTY AND THIS WILL MOVE DOWN THE SJV THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER I DON`T EXPECT ANY
LARGE HAIL AT THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND IF THE LOW ACTUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD AS THE
FORECAST MODELS PROJECT, ALL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL COME TO
AN END BY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING IS BASED ON THAT
OUTCOME HOWEVER WITH CLOSED LOWS, THE ACTUAL EJECTION TIME CAN BE
VERY TRICKY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING TREND. THE
BIG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME
AS HEIGHTS AT 500 MB RISE TO AROUND 5880 METERS. LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE 90S AND MAYBE SOME HOTTEST
LOCATIONS MAY SEE 100?. IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL WEEKEND TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE SIERRA FOR THAT HIKE THAT GOT POSTPONED YESTERDAY
AND TODAY!

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 06Z MON WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281330 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
630 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID WEEK A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A ROBUST
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST BAND WAS MOVING
THROUGH FRESNO AT THIS TIME...AND WAS PROVING TO BE QUITE
PERSISTENT. THE SECOND BAND WAS ABOUT 25 MILES BEHIND THE FIRST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH LEMOORE BY 0700 PDT...AND
HANFORD AND VISALIA BY 0730 PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS AIRMASS HAS BROUGHT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED IN MARIPOSA COUNTY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH THE ASOS AT THE
MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT REPORTING RAIN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
BEGIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND TO EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
AREA WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.28 INCH/HOUR. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
FAIRLY RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENING...REDUCING THE THREAT OF
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. STILL...MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN LOW-LYING
SECTIONS OF MOUNTAIN ROADS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AT 0830Z /0130 PDT/ THIS MORNING...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WAS BLOCKING THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY WITH A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A SERIES OF 500-MB VORTICITIES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. OF
CONCERN ARE STRONG DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM-12 TO
MOVE OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. A +26
VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE DIABLO RANGE AND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE PACHECO PASS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBINATION
OF THE VORTICITY AND SOLAR HEARTING COULD RESULT IN A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD
FORM EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY 00Z MONDAY /1700 PDT THIS AFTERNOON/.

A MUCH STRONGER VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT +47.7
BY 21Z /1400 PDT/. THE NAM-12 HAS MODERATELY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NORTHERN TULARE AND SOUTHERN FRESNO COUNTIES...WITH THE
FOLLOWING PEAK PARAMETERS... SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES UP TO 1200
JOULES/KG...SURFACE-COMPUTED LIFTED INDICIES OF -7 AND 850-MB THETA-
E OF 337 K, GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY APPROACHED 0.30
INCH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS AS THEY WERE SLOW MOVING. WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EXPECTED TODAY...EXPECT THAT STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED QPF
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 8500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 INCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH COLD AIR FILLING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TODAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE MODELS FORECAST THE
LOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...ALLOWING AN EAST-PACIFIC
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAD BACKED OFF A BIT OB THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGAIN FORECAST 500-
MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO CLIMB OVER 5880 METERS BY
FRIDAY BEFORE BACKING OFF A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 850-MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 22-23 C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE MID 90S FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 281330 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
630 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID WEEK A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A ROBUST
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST BAND WAS MOVING
THROUGH FRESNO AT THIS TIME...AND WAS PROVING TO BE QUITE
PERSISTENT. THE SECOND BAND WAS ABOUT 25 MILES BEHIND THE FIRST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH LEMOORE BY 0700 PDT...AND
HANFORD AND VISALIA BY 0730 PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS AIRMASS HAS BROUGHT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED IN MARIPOSA COUNTY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH THE ASOS AT THE
MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT REPORTING RAIN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
BEGIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND TO EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
AREA WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.28 INCH/HOUR. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
FAIRLY RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENING...REDUCING THE THREAT OF
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. STILL...MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN LOW-LYING
SECTIONS OF MOUNTAIN ROADS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AT 0830Z /0130 PDT/ THIS MORNING...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WAS BLOCKING THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY WITH A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A SERIES OF 500-MB VORTICITIES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. OF
CONCERN ARE STRONG DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM-12 TO
MOVE OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. A +26
VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE DIABLO RANGE AND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE PACHECO PASS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBINATION
OF THE VORTICITY AND SOLAR HEARTING COULD RESULT IN A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD
FORM EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY 00Z MONDAY /1700 PDT THIS AFTERNOON/.

A MUCH STRONGER VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT +47.7
BY 21Z /1400 PDT/. THE NAM-12 HAS MODERATELY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NORTHERN TULARE AND SOUTHERN FRESNO COUNTIES...WITH THE
FOLLOWING PEAK PARAMETERS... SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES UP TO 1200
JOULES/KG...SURFACE-COMPUTED LIFTED INDICIES OF -7 AND 850-MB THETA-
E OF 337 K, GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY APPROACHED 0.30
INCH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS AS THEY WERE SLOW MOVING. WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EXPECTED TODAY...EXPECT THAT STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED QPF
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 8500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 INCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH COLD AIR FILLING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TODAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE MODELS FORECAST THE
LOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...ALLOWING AN EAST-PACIFIC
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAD BACKED OFF A BIT OB THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGAIN FORECAST 500-
MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO CLIMB OVER 5880 METERS BY
FRIDAY BEFORE BACKING OFF A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 850-MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 22-23 C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE MID 90S FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281200 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE... ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID WEEK A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A ROBUST
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS AIRMASS HAS BROUGHT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED IN MARIPOSA COUNTY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH THE ASOS AT THE
MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT REPORTING RAIN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
BEGIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND TO EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
AREA WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.28 INCH/HOUR. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
FAIRLY RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENING...REDUCING THE THREAT OF
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. STILL...MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN LOW-LYING
SECTIONS OF MOUNTAIN ROADS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AT 0830Z /0130 PDT/ THIS MORNING...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WAS BLOCKING THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY WITH A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A SERIES OF 500-MB VORTICITIES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. OF
CONCERN ARE STRONG DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM-12 TO
MOVE OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. A +26
VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE DIABLO RANGE AND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE PACHECO PASS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBINATION
OF THE VORTICITY AND SOLAR HEARTING COULD RESULT IN A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD
FORM EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY 00Z MONDAY /1700 PDT THIS AFTERNOON/.

A MUCH STRONGER VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT +47.7
BY 21Z /1400 PDT/. THE NAM-12 HAS MODERATELY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NORTHERN TULARE AND SOUTHERN FRESNO COUNTIES...WITH THE
FOLLOWING PEAK PARAMETERS... SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES UP TO 1200
JOULES/KG...SURFACE-COMPUTED LIFTED INDICIES OF -7 AND 850-MB THETA-
E OF 337 K, GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY APPROACHED 0.30
INCH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS AS THEY WERE SLOW MOVING. WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EXPECTED TODAY...EXPECT THAT STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED QPF
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 8500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 INCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH COLD AIR FILLING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TODAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE MODELS FORECAST THE
LOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...ALLOWING AN EAST-PACIFIC
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAD BACKED OFF A BIT OB THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGAIN FORECAST 500-
MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO CLIMB OVER 5880 METERS BY
FRIDAY BEFORE BACKING OFF A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 850-MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 22-23 C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE MID 90S FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 281200 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE... ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID WEEK A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A ROBUST
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS AIRMASS HAS BROUGHT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED IN MARIPOSA COUNTY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH THE ASOS AT THE
MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT REPORTING RAIN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
BEGIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND TO EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
AREA WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.28 INCH/HOUR. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
FAIRLY RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENING...REDUCING THE THREAT OF
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. STILL...MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN LOW-LYING
SECTIONS OF MOUNTAIN ROADS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AT 0830Z /0130 PDT/ THIS MORNING...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WAS BLOCKING THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY WITH A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A SERIES OF 500-MB VORTICITIES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. OF
CONCERN ARE STRONG DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM-12 TO
MOVE OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. A +26
VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE DIABLO RANGE AND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE PACHECO PASS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBINATION
OF THE VORTICITY AND SOLAR HEARTING COULD RESULT IN A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD
FORM EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY 00Z MONDAY /1700 PDT THIS AFTERNOON/.

A MUCH STRONGER VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT +47.7
BY 21Z /1400 PDT/. THE NAM-12 HAS MODERATELY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NORTHERN TULARE AND SOUTHERN FRESNO COUNTIES...WITH THE
FOLLOWING PEAK PARAMETERS... SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES UP TO 1200
JOULES/KG...SURFACE-COMPUTED LIFTED INDICIES OF -7 AND 850-MB THETA-
E OF 337 K, GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY APPROACHED 0.30
INCH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS AS THEY WERE SLOW MOVING. WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EXPECTED TODAY...EXPECT THAT STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED QPF
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 8500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 INCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH COLD AIR FILLING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TODAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE MODELS FORECAST THE
LOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...ALLOWING AN EAST-PACIFIC
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAD BACKED OFF A BIT OB THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGAIN FORECAST 500-
MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO CLIMB OVER 5880 METERS BY
FRIDAY BEFORE BACKING OFF A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 850-MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 22-23 C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE MID 90S FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 280950
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID WEEK A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A ROBUST
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 0830Z /0130 PDT/ THIS MORNING...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WAS BLOCKING THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY WITH A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A SERIES OF 500-MB VORTICITIES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. OF
CONCERN ARE STRONG DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM-12 TO
MOVE OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. A +26
VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE DIABLO RANGE AND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE PACHECO PASS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBINATION
OF THE VORTICITY AND SOLAR HEARTING COULD RESULT IN A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD
FORM EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY 00Z MONDAY /1700 PDT THIS AFTERNOON/.

A MUCH STRONGER VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT +47.7
BY 21Z /1400 PDT/. THE NAM-12 HAS MODERATELY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE NORTHERN TULARE AND SOUTHERN FRESNO COUNTIES...WITH THE
FOLLOWING PEAK PARAMETERS... SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES UP TO 1200
JOULES/KG...SURFACE-COMPUTED LIFTED INDICIES OF -7 AND 850-MB THETA-
E OF 337 K, GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY APPROACHED 0.30
INCH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS AS THEY WERE SLOW MOVING. WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EXPECTED TODAY...EXPECT THAT STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED QPF
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 8500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0-1.5 INCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH COLD AIR FILLING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TODAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE MODELS FORECAST THE
LOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...ALLOWING AN EAST-PACIFIC
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAD BACKED OFF A BIT OB THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGAIN FORECAST 500-
MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO CLIMB OVER 5880 METERS BY
FRIDAY BEFORE BACKING OFF A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 850-MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 22-23 C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE MID 90S FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905
KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950

KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 272053
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
153 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. BY MID WEEK A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A ROBUST WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SIERRA MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON THE
MESONET, THE SNOW LEVEL IS AT AROUND ABOVE 9000 FEET AND THIS
MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST QUITE WELL. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW LOCATED NEAR LAKE
ISABELLA AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS FEATURE TO A POSITION OVER EAST
CENTRAL NEVADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CONTINUED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE SIERRA THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO RAISE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WHERE IT OR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. BY MONDAY, FORECAST
MODELS MOVE THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS RISING
CONSIDERABLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHTS IS PROGGED FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME BEFORE HEIGHTS TOP OUT ON NEXT WEEKEND
AROUND 5920 METERS IN A STRONG RIDGE PATTERN. SO ENJOY THE COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM WEATHER RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH THIS
EVENING CAUSING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-27      105:1888     66:1986     68:2009     44:1948
KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905

KBFL 09-27      104:2009     69:1904     73:1967     30:1908
KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 272053
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
153 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST. A THREAT OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. BY MID WEEK A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A ROBUST WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SIERRA MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON THE
MESONET, THE SNOW LEVEL IS AT AROUND ABOVE 9000 FEET AND THIS
MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST QUITE WELL. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW LOCATED NEAR LAKE
ISABELLA AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS FEATURE TO A POSITION OVER EAST
CENTRAL NEVADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CONTINUED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE SIERRA THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO RAISE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WHERE IT OR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. BY MONDAY, FORECAST
MODELS MOVE THE LOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS RISING
CONSIDERABLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHTS IS PROGGED FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME BEFORE HEIGHTS TOP OUT ON NEXT WEEKEND
AROUND 5920 METERS IN A STRONG RIDGE PATTERN. SO ENJOY THE COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM WEATHER RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH THIS
EVENING CAUSING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-27      105:1888     66:1986     68:2009     44:1948
KFAT 09-28      104:1887     64:1911     67:2010     43:1971
KFAT 09-29      102:1992     63:1919     72:2010     43:1905

KBFL 09-27      104:2009     69:1904     73:1967     30:1908
KBFL 09-28      102:1917     72:1965     72:2009     33:1908
KBFL 09-29      105:1992     66:1919     72:2010     32:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




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